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At least 325 records · Page 18

PyHydroGeophysX: An extensible open-source platform for integrating hydrological models with geophysical measurements

Hydrological models and geophysical measurements are widely used tools for understanding subsurface hydrological processes relevant to water resource management, yet they typically remain disconnected due to technical barriers. We present PyHydroGeophysX, an open-source Python platform bridging this gap by providing standardized interfaces between hydrological modeling software (MODFLOW, ParFlow) and geophysical simulation tools (PyGIMLi, SimPEG). The platform implements bidirectional workflows: translating hydrological outputs into simulated geophysical responses through petrophysical models, and extracting hydrological information from geophysical inversions. Key features include bidirectional workflow modules, configurable petrophysical models, time-lapse inversion with temporal regularization, parallel computing, and mesh utilities for property transfer between geophysical and hydrological grids. The modular architecture of PyHydroGeophysX enables researchers to incorporate additional models and methods, fostering broader adoption of integrated hydrogeophysical approaches. The software is freely available on GitHub and is intended for researchers and practitioners working at the intersection of hydrology and geophysics.

Hydrogeophysics↗

Reactive capture and electrochemical conversion of CO 2 with ionic liquids and deep eutectic solvents

Ionic liquids (ILs) and deep eutectic solvents (DESs) have tremendous potential for reactive capture and conversion (RCC) of CO 2 due to their wide electrochemical stability window, low volatility, and high CO 2 solubility. There is environmental and economic interest in the direct utilization of the captured CO 2 using electrified and modular processes that forgo the thermal- or pressure-swing regeneration steps to concentrate CO 2 , eliminating the need to compress, transport, or store the gas. The conventional electrochemical conversion of CO 2 with aqueous electrolytes presents limited CO 2 solubility and high energy requirement to achieve industrially relevant products. Additionally, aqueous systems have competitive hydrogen evolution. In the past decade, there has been significant progress toward the design of ILs and DESs, and their composites to separate CO 2 from dilute streams. In parallel, but not necessarily in synergy, there have been studies focused on a few select ILs and DESs for electrochemical reduction of CO 2 , often diluting them with aqueous or non-aqueous solvents. The resulting electrode–electrolyte interfaces present a complex speciation for RCC. In this review, we describe how the ILs and DESs are tuned for RCC and specifically address the CO 2 chemisorption and electroreduction mechanisms. Critical bulk and interfacial properties of ILs and DESs are discussed in the context of RCC, and the potential of these electrolytes are presented through a techno-economic evaluation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Poplar: a phylogenomics pipeline

Motivation Generating phylogenomic trees from the genomic data is essential in understanding biological systems. Each step of this complex process has received extensive attention and has been significantly streamlined over the years. Given the public availability of data, obtaining genomes for a wide selection of species is straightforward. However, analyzing that data to generate a phylogenomic tree is a multistep process with legitimate scientific and technical challenges, often requiring a significant input from a domain-area scientist. Results We present Poplar, a new, streamlined computational pipeline, to address the computational logistical issues that arise when constructing the phylogenomic trees. It provides a framework that runs state-of-the-art software for essential steps in the phylogenomic pipeline, beginning from a genome with or without an annotation, and resulting in a species tree. Running Poplar requires no external databases. In the execution, it enables parallelism for execution for clusters and cloud computing. The trees generated by Poplar match closely with state-of-the-art published trees. The usage and performance of Poplar is far simpler and quicker than manually running a phylogenomic pipeline. Availability and implementation Freely available on GitHub at https://github.com/sandialabs/poplar. Implemented using Python and supported on Linux.

Koning, Elizabeth [Sandia National Laboratories (S↗

Enhancing lipid production in plant cells through automated high-throughput genome engineering and phenotyping

Plant bioengineering is a time-consuming and labor-intensive process with no guarantee of achieving desired traits. Here, we present a fast, automated, scalable, high-throughput pipeline for plant bioengineering (FAST-PB) in maize (Zea mays) and Nicotiana benthamiana. FAST-PB enables genome editing and product characterization by integrating automated biofoundry engineering of callus and protoplast cells with single-cell matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization mass spectrometry (MALDI-MS). We first demonstrated that FAST-PB could streamline Golden Gate cloning, with the capacity to construct 96 vectors in parallel. Using FAST-PB in protoplasts, we found that PEG2050 increased transfection efficiency by over 45%. For proof-of-concept, we established a reporter-gene-free method for CRISPR editing and phenotyping via mutation of high chlorophyll fluorescence 136. We show that diverse lipids were enhanced up to 6-fold using CRISPR activation of lipid controlling genes. In callus cells, an automated transformation platform was employed to regenerate plants with enhanced lipid traits through introducing multigene cassettes. Lastly, FAST-PB enabled high-throughput single-cell lipid profiling by integrating MALDI-MS with the biofoundry, protoplast, and callus cells, differentiating engineered and unengineered cells using single-cell lipidomics. Furthermore, these innovations massively increase the throughput of synthetic biology, genome editing, and metabolic engineering and change what is possible using single-cell metabolomics in plants.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Data for "Enhancing Lipid Production in Plant Cells through Automated High-Throughput Genome Engineering and Phenotyping"

Plant bioengineering is a time-consuming and labor-intensive process with no guarantee of achieving desired traits. Here, we present a fast, automated, scalable, high-throughput pipeline for plant bioengineering (FAST-PB) in maize (Zea mays) and Nicotiana benthamiana. FAST-PB enables genome editing and product characterization by integrating automated biofoundry engineering of callus and protoplast cells with single-cell matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization mass spectrometry (MALDI-MS). We first demonstrated that FAST-PB could streamline Golden Gate cloning, with the capacity to construct 96 vectors in parallel. Using FAST-PB in protoplasts, we found that PEG2050 increased transfection efficiency by over 45%. For proof-of-concept, we established a reporter-gene-free method for CRISPR editing and phenotyping via mutation of high chlorophyll fluorescence 136. We show that diverse lipids were enhanced up to 6-fold using CRISPR activation of lipid controlling genes. In callus cells, an automated transformation platform was employed to regenerate plants with enhanced lipid traits through introducing multigene cassettes. Lastly, FAST-PB enabled high-throughput single-cell lipid profiling by integrating MALDI-MS with the biofoundry, protoplast, and callus cells, differentiating engineered and unengineered cells using single-cell lipidomics. These innovations massively increase the throughput of synthetic biology, genome editing, and metabolic engineering and change what is possible using single-cell metabolomics in plants.

AI/ML↗

CdTe Core: Final Technical Report (FTR)

CdTe is presently the cost-leading thin-film PV technology, directly competing with Si at scale, even when domestically manufactured. While an impressive technology, its efficiency remains much below the detailed balance limit with the largest cause due to its low photovoltage and fill factor. To realize gains, the carrier concentration, minority carrier lifetime, and interface recombination all need to be improved simultaneously over historic levels. Using a new defect chemistry (group V doping instead of copper) has been identified as a viable route using single crystal systems. This project focused on implementing this new defect chemistry in scalable, polycrystalline thin-film photovoltaic CdTe devices with tasks focusing improvements to the front interface, absorber, and rear interface as well as capability development & stakeholder engagement. The goal of the project was to establish a strategy using devices, test structures, detailed characterization, and modeling to quantify the sources of losses in state-of-the-art CdTe photovoltaic devices. Using this strategy and advanced synthesis, losses at the front interface, absorber, and rear interface were worked on in parallel. The final objective was to significantly improve the voltage deficit in CdTe devices to enable improvements in photovoltage and efficiency that can be implemented by industry in the near-term. Over the course of the project, the team developed new characterization techniques, analysis, and modeling which were then applied to state-of-the-art materials generated internally and collaboratively. In particular to enable rapid progress, NREL worked closely with First Solar where NREL grew complete devices as well as ones that interleaved process steps where First Solar had completed different steps such as absorber growth or absorber growth and activation using their baseline methods. Using detailed characterization and analysis including photoemission, photoluminescence, and scanning probe techniques enabled understanding of the loss pathways and area for improvements in our own and First Solar s materials. Ultimately, this contributed to the first series of new world record CdTe efficiencies since 2016, culminating in a 23.1% certified cell that was P-doped along with As-doped cells of similar performance. Internally, NREL improved the statistical variation in baseline As-doped devices and improved average photovoltage by over 100 mV. This was done through an improvement in absorber quality, changed front interface, and improved back contact. In addition to materially improving the fabrication processes at NREL, characterization, analysis, and modeling were developed and disseminated. NREL also played a pivotal role in community building over the course of this project working closely with the Cadmium Telluride Accelerator Consortium. NREL worked in a series of collaborations with academic and industry partners, leveraging knowledge and innovations from this project, as well as helped organize a series of workshops to ensure rapid progress in the field. Working closely with the academic community has led to a dissemination of knowledge; working with First Solar as increased US competitiveness First Solar expanded domestic production to ~10 GW and opened new facilities.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DIMPLES: Distributed Influence Maximization for Pandemic pLanning on Exascale Systems

We study exascale parallel algorithms for the selection of intervention or monitoring strategies in massive realistic socio-technical networks through scalable Influence Maximization (InfMax) algorithms. We employ novel techniques to enable efficient scaling on up to 8k nodes of OLCF Frontier, with 65k AMD GPUs and 458k AMD CPU cores. Current state-of-the-art InfMax tools are limited to networks with only a few million actors (vertices) and a few hundred million interactions (edges). By overcoming these limitations, we show that our approach is capable of processing a realistic social contact network of the United States with 285 million nodes and about 8 billion edges. This two orders-of-magnitude improvement over the previous state-of-the-art is obtained by leveraging algorithmic advancements for the InfMax problem and designing several problem-specific approaches to overlap communication with computation, improve GPU efficiency, and lower the application’s memory requirements. We evaluate strong scaling for computing 10k most influential seeds using up to 8k nodes of an exascale system, and weak scaling from 128 to 8k system nodes for seed sets ranging from 625 to 40k seeds. We achieve the fastest-known runtime of 25 minutes while performing 48 million diffusion simulations totaling 2.31 petabytes to identify 40k influential seeds using 8k nodes, and take 5.75 minutes to identify 10k seeds while using 4k nodes.

Minutoli, Marco [Pacific Northwest National Labora↗

Plasma self-driven current in tokamaks with magnetic islands

Magnetic island perturbations may cause a reduction in plasma self-driven current that is needed for tokamak operation. A novel effect on tokamak self-driven current revealed by global gyrokinetic simulations is due to magnetic-island-induced 3D electric potential structures, which have the same dominant mode numbers as that of the magnetic island, whereas centered at both the inner and outer edge of the island. The non-resonant potential islands are shown to drive a current through an efficient nonlinear parallel acceleration of electrons. In large aspect ratio (large-A) tokamak devices, this new effect can result in a significant global reduction of the electron bootstrap current when the island size is sufficiently large, in addition to the local current loss across the island region due to the pressure profile flattening. It is shown that there exists a critical magnetic island width for large-A tokamaks beyond which the electron bootstrap current loss is global and increases rapidly with the island size. As such, this process may introduce a size limit for tolerable magnetic islands in large-A tokamak devices in the context of steady state operation. On the other hand, the current loss caused by magnetic islands in low-A tokamaks such as spherical tokamak (ST) NSTX/U is minor. The reduction of the axisymmetric current by magnetic islands scales with the square of island width. However, the loss of the current is mainly local to the island region, and the pace of current loss as the island size increases is substantially slower compared to large-A tokamaks. In particular, the bootstrap current reduction in STs is even smaller in the reactor-relevant high-β p regime where neoclassical tearing modes are more likely to develop.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

CROCUS Dual Polarization Ceilometer Data at Northeastern Illinois University Rooftop

This dataset is from the Department of Energy Office of Science funded project, CROCUS Urban Integrated Field Laboratory (https://crocus-urban.org/). The dual-polarization ceilometer (Vaisala CL61) is an autonomous lidar system operating at 910 nm wavelength, providing valuable measurements for understanding atmospheric boundary layer evolution, air quality, and cloud-aerosol interactions. The CL61 measures the backscattered signal intensity alternating between parallel- and cross-polarization signals. The unique depolarization measurement capability improves discrimination between different particle types, such as liquid droplets, ice crystals, and aerosols. The depolarization is highly dependent on the scatterer shape and orientation (spherical vs non-spherical particles), with the linear depolarization ratio providing a measure of dominant backscatter signal component from atmospheric particles at various heights, essentially allowing discrimination between liquid and solid particles. With its efficient optical system, CL61’s improved signal-to-noise ratio compared to traditional ceilometers allows studying detailed vertical profiles of aerosols and clouds up to 15 km height.Datasets are stored in a netCDF data format, and we we encourage users to make use of the associated toolkits available from Unidata (https://www.unidata.ucar.edu/software/netcdf/), Project Pythia (https://foundations.projectpythia.org/core/data-formats/netcdf-cf.html), and our “Instrument Cookbooks” (https://crocus-urban.github.io/instrument-cookbooks) for more information on how to process the metadata-rich datasets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

LLMs for Mfg.—On the State of Large Language Models and Applications to Manufacturing

Additive Manufacturing (AM), referred to as 3D printing, has emerged as a key pillar of Industry 4.0 enabling layer-by-layer fabrication of intricate geometries from CAD models. In parallel, Large Language Models (LLMs), deep learning models for natural language generation trained on vast text corpora, have demonstrated unprecedented capabilities in understanding and generating human-like text. The convergence of these trends opens new opportunities at the intersection of AM and AI/ML, where LLMs can assist engineers and researchers in design, manufacture planning, and knowledge discovery. Recent academic work has begun to explore LLM applications in AM and adjacent fields, such as material science, mechanical engineering, and design for additive manufacturing. This exploration ranges from intelligent process planning to domain-specific knowledge retrieval. This survey provides a comprehensive review of current developments, focusing on peer-reviewed literature contributions that apply, adapt, and advance LLMs in general and domain-specific domains. We analyze state-of-the-art (SOTA) techniques, such as fine-tuning foundational models for specific domains, retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) pipelines, knowledge graph integration, and delve into the architectures and evaluation methods employed. The goal of this survey is to inform researchers and practitioners of the current capabilities and limitations of LLMs in general and in domain-specific applications, and to outline how these models are being tailored to meet the requirements of these applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Directed Self-Assembly of the Organic Semiconductor C8-BTBT-C8 in Anodic Aluminum Oxide Nanopores

Controlling the self-assembly of organic semiconductors at the nanoscale is critical for advancing high-performance electronic and photonic devices, yet it remains challenging due to their intrinsic anisotropic crystallization and sensitivity to processing conditions. Here, in this study, we demonstrate that cylindrical nanoconfinement within anodic aluminum oxide membranes provides a versatile platform to precisely tune the molecular orientation and phase behavior of the prototypical organic semiconductor 2,7-dioctyl[1]benzothieno[3,2-b][1]benzothiophene (C8-BTBT-C8). Combining temperature-dependent high-resolution synchrotron X-ray scattering with optical birefringence measurements, we uncover that confinement geometries (pore diameters 25–180 nm) and surface chemistry govern the emergence of distinct smectic A textures, featuring molecular layers either parallel or perpendicular to the pore axis. The competition between axial and radial smectic layering is modulated by pore size, surface hydrophilicity, and thermal history, enabling reversible control over domain orientations and transitions between liquid crystalline and crystalline states. Notably, nanoconfinement stabilizes the smectic phase over an expanded temperature range compared to bulk, while inducing complex multidomain configurations owing to geometric constraints and anchoring conditions. Our results elucidate fundamental mechanisms by which anisotropic nanoscale confinement directs the self-organization of highly conjugated organic molecules, with implications for optimizing directional charge transport and anisotropic optical responses in organic–inorganic hybrid nanoarchitectures. This study establishes nanoconfinement as a powerful strategy to engineer morphology and functional properties in organic semiconducting materials with nanoscale precision.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Progressive Hedging Decomposition for Solutions of Large-Scale Process Family Design Problems

Rapid, wide-scale deployment of green process systems, such as carbon capture or water desalination systems, is essential for combatting climate change. Methods relying on traditional design or modularity fail to capture the benefits of both economies of numbers and economies of scale. We have proposed process family design, which designs a family of processes simultaneously exploiting opportunities for common elements. In previous work, we explored different optimization formulations to solve this problem. In this work, we develop a decomposition approach to tackle larger problems efficiently. We solve a water desalination case study, which is too large to solve within a reasonable timeframe with the discretization formulation. We exploit the block angular structure of the discretization problem to decompose and solve using Progressive Hedging (PH). We use the open-source Python package mpi-sppy to execute PH which allows us to leverage parallelization and a HPC cluster to further improve solution time.

Stinchfield, Georgia↗

Fast and sensitive measurements of sub-3 nm particles using Condensation Particle Counters For Atmospheric Rapid Measurements (CPC FARM)

New particle formation (NPF) is the atmospheric process whereby gas molecules react and nucleate to form detectable particles. NPF has a strong impact on Earth's radiative balance as it produces roughly half of global cloud condensation nuclei. However, the time resolution and sensitivity of current instrumentation are inadequate in measuring the size distribution of sub-3 nm particles, the particles critical for understanding NPF. Here we present the Condensation Particle Counters For Atmospheric Rapid Measurements (CPC FARM), a method to measure the concentrations of freshly nucleated particles. The CPC FARM consists of five CPCs operating in parallel, each configured to operate at different detectable particle sizes between 1–3 nm. This study explores two methods to calculate the size distribution from the differential measurements across the CPC channels. The performance of both inversion methods was tested against the size distribution measured by a pair of stepping particle mobility sizers (SMPSs) during an ambient air sampling study in Pittsburgh, PA. Observational results indicate that the CPC FARM is more accurate with higher time resolution and sensitivity in the sub-3 nm range compared to the SMPS.

Cheng, Darren [Carnegie Mellon Univ., Pittsburgh, ↗

Experiences with SYCL on AMD GPUs with Kokkos

With the recent diversification of the hardware landscape in the high-performance computing (HPC) community, performance-portability solutions are becoming more and more important. One of the most popular choices is Kokkos, which recently became a Linux Foundation project. Most of its development is supported by the US Department of Energy and the French Alternative Energies and Atomic Energy Commission. Kokkos is implemented as a C++ library with multiple backends to support CPUs as well as various GPU architectures. These backends include OpenMP, CUDA, HIP, and also SCYL. This approach enables users to leverage the preferred vendor toolchain for the respective platform (e.g. CUDA, ROCm, OneAPI). The SYCL backend is used to target Intel GPUs, in particular to support the Aurora exascale supercomputer. However, SYCL itself also offers a large degree of portability, and in fact Kokkos’ CI for SYCL has been running on NVIDIA hardware due to a lack of access to Intel GPUs. In this report, we describe our experience with using Kokkos SYCL backend on AMD GPUs targeting the Frontier supercomputer at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The two major SYCL implementations are DPC++ and AdaptiveCpp. While the Kokkos SYCL backend has been implemented using the former, the latter was the first implementation to target AMD GPUs. We will discuss the experience with both of these SYCL implementations in terms of functionality and performance. Using Kokkos to evaluate SYCL toolchains has a number of benefits. Kokkos’ use of SYCL is fairly complex, exercising features such as graphs, relocatable device functions, atomics – including for non-arithmetic types, as well as pinned and page migratable memory allocations. Kokkos also needs to implement capabilities such as Kokkos’ hierarchical parallelism that are not a straight-forward mapping to SYCL capabilities. Furthermore, a large number of libraries and applications that represent diverse use cases are implemented in Kokkos, providing readily available test cases for a toolchain evaluation. Preliminary results show that support for AMD GPUs in DPC++ is much less mature than for NVIDIA GPUs or Intel GPUs. While the situation has improved significantly over the last year, we still encounter many runtime failures, dispatching problems, and code generation issues. With AdaptiveCpp the challenges arise even earlier in the evaluation process. Since Kokkos’ SYCL implementation is largely focused on supporting Intel GPUs, we opted to leverage SYCL extensions which are available in DPC++ but not in AdaptiveCpp. Furthermore, AdaptiveCpp appears to be less conformant with the SYCL2020 standard which Kokkos relies on. In some cases, we are able to work around the lack of feature support, in other cases we have to disable certain Kokkos capabilities to evaluate the toolchain. Our evaluation will leverage Kokkos’ unit tests to establish basic functionality and feature completeness. We then use simple benchmarks for components of a CG implementation as a measure of usability and performance of the SYCL toolchains.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Regional-scale fault-to-structure earthquake simulations with the EQSIM framework: Workflow maturation and computational performance on GPU-accelerated exascale platforms

Continuous advancements in scientific and engineering understanding of earthquake phenomena, combined with the associated development of representative physics-based models, is providing a foundation for high-performance, fault-to-structure earthquake simulations. However, regional-scale applications of high-performance models have been challenged by the computational requirements at the resolutions required for engineering risk assessments. The EarthQuake SIMulation (EQSIM) framework, a software application development under the US Department of Energy (DOE) Exascale Computing Project, is focused on overcoming the existing computational barriers and enabling routine regional-scale simulations at resolutions relevant to a breadth of engineered systems. This multidisciplinary software development—drawing upon expertise in geophysics, engineering, applied math and computer science—is preparing the advanced computational workflow necessary to fully exploit the DOE’s exaflop computer platforms coming online in the 2023 to 2024 timeframe. Achievement of the computational performance required for high-resolution regional models containing upward of hundreds of billions to trillions of model grid points requires numerical efficiency in every phase of a regional simulation. This includes run time start-up and regional model generation, effective distribution of the computational workload across thousands of computer nodes, efficient coupling of regional geophysics and local engineering models, and application-tailored highly efficient transfer, storage, and interrogation of very large volumes of simulation data. This article summarizes the most recent advancements and refinements incorporated in the workflow design for the EQSIM integrated fault-to-structure framework, which are based on extensive numerical testing across multiple graphics processing unit (GPU)-accelerated platforms, and demonstrates the computational performance achieved on the world’s first exaflop computer platform through representative regional-scale earthquake simulations for the San Francisco Bay Area in California, USA.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Part-scale microstructure prediction for laser powder bed fusion Ti-6Al-4V using a hybrid mechanistic and machine learning model

Laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) Ti-6Al-4V is widely studied for use in structural applications in aerospace and medical industries, but mechanical anisotropy and microstructural inhomogeneity prohibits its wider adoption. Although successful microstructure prediction models have been developed, a remaining challenge is their limited integration across length/time scales and validation by experimental studies. Here, this work proposes a physics-augmented machine learning surrogate model to unite predictions of LPBF temperature, β phase morphology and texture, and α/α’ formation into a single framework that is calibrated and validated with experiments. First, a phase field (PF) model of the martensitic β→α’ transformation is developed and calibrated using data from in-situ synchrotron cyclic heating/cooling studies quantifying the variation of α phase fraction with time. In parallel, an established finite difference-Monte Carlo (FDMC) model predicts the part-scale temperature profile and β grain formation during solidification. A dataset is developed using LPBF cyclic temperature descriptors from the FDMC model as inputs and corresponding α/α’ phase fraction and width from the PF model as outputs. Five machine learning (ML) regression models are tested and optimized, having mean absolute error in testing ≤ 4 %, and the k-nearest neighbors (KNN) model is selected as the best performing. The KNN model is called at the nodal level during post-processing of the FDMC model to replace and downscale the response of the PF model. The combined agility and accuracy of the hybrid FDMC-ML model enables part-scale microstructure predictions that can be further used for property predictions to accelerate AM process optimization.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Nodeman: A Node Management Tool For Hpc Clusters

NodeMan is a command line tool to manage nodes in an HPC cluster. At it's core, it is an extensible framework composed of bash scripting and GNU parallel. HPC System Administrator will find it useful in that it encapsulates desired functions and allows them to be assembled in a way familiar to administrators - through pipes. In fact, NodeMan functions can work with common command line tools as long as they use stdin/stdout. System Administrators can construct moderately complex logic and filtering on a compact command line that would normally require a substantial shell script. In the spirit of clush and pdsh, it is able to run commands remotely on nodes. Additionally, NodeMan is more flexible. For example, it can interact with IPMI and naturally processes node lists for orchestrating different tools. The library of useful pre-built functions is growing. System administrators can easily create new functions and make it their own.

Serr, ScottM↗

Enhanced accuracy through ensembling of randomly initialized auto-regressive models for dynamical systems

Computational mechanics simulations using traditional finite element methods (FEM) require prohibitively expensive computational resources for real-time engineering applications, design optimization, and digital twin implementations. While machine learning (ML) surrogate models offer significant computational speedups, autoregressive ML models for time-dependent mechanical systems suffer from error accumulation that compromises long-term prediction reliability - a critical concern for engineering applications where accuracy over extended time horizons is essential for safety and performance assessments. Here, we propose a deep ensemble framework specifically designed to address this challenge in computational mechanics applications, where multiple ML surrogate models with random weight initializations are trained in parallel and their predictions aggregated during inference. This approach leverages statistical diversity to maximize information gain from a fixed set of training data and to mitigate error propagation, while maintaining the computational efficiency that makes ML surrogates attractive for engineering practice. We validate the framework on three representative problems spanning critical areas of computational mechanics: stress field evolution in heterogeneous microstructures under complex loading (relevant to advanced materials design and composite analysis), planetary-scale shallow water dynamics (applicable to environmental and geotechnical engineering), and Gray-Scott reaction-diffusion systems (relevant to mass transport and chemical process engineering). Across all test cases, the ensemble approach demonstrates consistent error reduction of 15-33% compared to individual models. The codes for this work are available on GitHub (https://github.com/Graham-Brady-Research-Group/AutoregressiveEnsemble_SpatioTemporal_Evolution).

autoregressive prediction↗