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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 325 records · Page 18
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Monte Carlo method for constructing confidence intervals with unconstrained and constrained nuisance parameters in the NOvA experiment

Measuring observables to constrain models using maximum-likelihood estimation is fundamental to many physics experiments. Wilks' theorem provides a simple way to construct confidence intervals on model parameters, but it only applies under certain conditions. These conditions, such as nested hypotheses and unbounded parameters, are often violated in neutrino oscillation measurements and other experimental scenarios. Monte Carlo methods can address these issues, albeit at increased computational cost. In the presence of nuisance parameters, however, the best way to implement a Monte Carlo method is ambiguous. Furthermore, this paper documents the method selected by the NOvA experiment, the profile construction. It presents the toy studies that informed the choice of method, details of its implementation, and tests performed to validate it. It also includes some practical considerations which may be of use to others choosing to use the profile construction.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Calculation of ion–ion mutual neutralization rate constants using Landau–Zener theory coupled with trajectory simulations for Ar + –Cl − , Br − , I −

In this computational study, we self-consistently calculate the rate constants of mutual neutralization reactions by incorporating the electron transfer probability, using Landau–Zener state transition theory with inputs derived from ab initio quantum chemistry calculations, into classical trajectory simulations. Electronic structure calculations are done using correlation consistent basis sets with multi-reference configuration interaction to map all the molecular electronic states below the ion-dissociation limit as a function of the distance between the reacting species. Our electronic structure calculations have been significantly improved from our previous work through improved selection of molecular electronic configurations maintaining a fine grid of 1a 0 over a wide range of bond lengths and accurate treatment of spin–orbit couplings. Non-adiabatic coupling matrix elements are calculated with the three-point central difference method near each avoided crossing to estimate the exact crossing point R x and coupling parameter H if , which are inputs to the multi-channel Landau–Zener theory to calculate the electron transition probability. Our approach is applied to estimate the mutual neutralization rate constants for the following ion pairs: Ar + –Cl − , Ar + –Br − , Ar + –I − at ∼133 Pa. Furthermore, our predictions are compared against the experimental data reported. It is seen that the improvement in the electronic structure calculation results in excellent agreement between the simulation results and the available experimental data to within a factor of ∼2 or ∼±50%.

Complete-active space self-consistent field↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation of a New Approach for Entrainment and Detrainment Rate Estimation

Entrainment and detrainment rates (ε and δ) constitute the most critical free parameters in mass flux schemes commonly employed for cumulus parameterizations. Recently, Zhu et al. (2021) introduced a new approach that utilizes aircraft observations to simultaneously estimate ε and δ for cumulus clouds, overcoming the limitation of other observation-based approaches that solely yield ε without offering insights into δ. This study aims to comprehensively evaluate the reliability of this new approach. First, evaluation using an Explicit Mixing Parcel Model demonstrates the capability of the new approach to back-calculate predetermined ε and δ based on the physical properties before and after the entrainment mixing. Second, evaluation using large-eddy simulations illustrates that the new approach yields consistent ε and δ profiles compared to the traditional approach. Sensitivity tests indicate a weak sensitivity of the estimated δ with the new approach to the entrained air source. A decrease in the proportion of cloudy air in the assumed detrained air leads to a reduction in the estimated δ, while ε remains unaffected. Finally, the most appropriate assumptions for entrained and detrained air are discussed. Estimating ε for cumulus parameterizations involves acquiring ambient air more than 500 m away from the cloud edge as entrained air. Due to implicit mean field approximations in the traditional approach, determining the optimal assumption for detrained air properties proves challenging. Finally, this study confirms the reliability of the new approach in estimating ε and δ, providing confidence in its application to extensive observational data and advancement in parameterization.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Poisson-response Tensor-on-Tensor Regression and Applications

We introduce Poisson-response tensor-on-tensor regression (PToTR), a novel regression framework designed to handle tensor responses composed element-wise of random Poisson-distributed counts. Tensors, or multi-dimensional arrays, composed of counts are common data in fields such as inter national relations, social networks, epidemiology, and medical imaging, where events occur across multiple dimensions like time, location, and dyads. PToTR accommodates such tensor responses alongside tensor covariates, providing a versatile tool for multi dimensional data analysis. We propose algorithms for maximum likelihood estimation under a canonical polyadic (CP) structure on the regression coefficient tensor that satisfy the positivity of Poisson parameters and then provide an initial theoretical error analysis for PToTR estimators. We also demonstrate the utility of PToTR through three concrete applications: longitudinal data analysis of the Integrated Crisis Early Warning System database, positron emission tomography (PET) image reconstruction, and change-point detection of communication patterns in longitudinal dyadic data. These applications highlight the versatility of PToTR in addressing complex, structured count data across various domains.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Proof of the Asymptotic Variance of Path Length Estimators for Single-Collision Monte Carlo Source Iteration in the Thick Diffusion Limit

Here, we prove a theorem relating the variance of path length estimators for single-collision Monte Carlo source iteration to a parameter that becomes infinitesimally small in an important physical regime arising in radiative transfer. In our usage, “single-collision Monte Carlo source iteration” refers to Monte Carlo Boltzmann transport methods in which each Monte Carlo particle history includes no more than a single collision, and the physics of multiple scattering is modeled by lagging the scattering source term and iterating until this term converges. Our theorem can be used to construct variance reduction techniques which improve the order of the estimator variance. This enables calculations that would otherwise require impractically large sample sizes to achieve practical estimator uncertainties. We believe this is the first postulation of a theorem relating estimator variance to a limiting case parameter for single-collision Monte Carlo source iteration, and the first proof of such a theorem. We illustrate the theorem’s value with an example in which the authors of a transport method used the theorem to design a variance reduction technique that improved the uncertainty of their solution by a factor of about 500 for a proxy problem from radiative transfer that contains both optically-thick and optically-thin material.

Mathematics and Computing↗
DOE OSTI2025

A provably stable numerical method for the anisotropic diffusion equation in confined magnetic fields

We present a novel numerical method for solving the anisotropic diffusion equation in magnetic fields confined to a periodic box which is accurate and provably stable. We derive energy estimates of the solution of the continuous initial boundary value problem. A discrete formulation is presented using operator splitting in time with the summation by parts finite difference approximation of spatial derivatives for the perpendicular diffusion operator. Weak penalty procedures are derived for implementing both boundary conditions and parallel diffusion operator obtained by field line tracing. We prove that the fully-discrete approximation is unconditionally stable. Discrete energy estimates are shown to match the continuous energy estimate given the correct choice of penalty parameters. A nonlinear penalty parameter is shown to provide an effective method for tuning the parallel diffusion penalty and significantly minimises rounding errors. Several numerical experiments, using manufactured solutions, the “NIMROD benchmark” problem and a single island problem, are presented to verify numerical accuracy, convergence, and asymptotic preserving properties of the method. Finally, we present a magnetic field with chaotic regions and islands and show the contours of the anisotropic diffusion equation reproduce key features in the field.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Identifying high-impact and high-uncertainty parameters in MiniFuel model predictions

The MiniFuel irradiation platform at Oak Ridge National Laboratory's High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) is a flexible, high-throughput separate effects test capability. Finite element thermal models are relied upon to design MiniFuel experiments and to achieve experimental objectives. Recent reports show good agreement in the model prediction of target fuel temperatures, but as the capability of the experiments is extended to higher temperatures, the uncertainty in the model predictions must be quantified. To that end, high-impact, high-uncertainty parameters that contribute the most uncertainty to the model are identified. The uncertainty quantification was accomplished through a series of screening and sensitivity analyses. The first analysis utilizes the method of Morris to perform a computationally efficient preliminary screening that considers uncertainty in a large number of the model inputs. The most important parameters identified in the Morris screening study were then considered in a Sobol sensitivity analysis that more robustly ranks and quantifies the uncertainty associated with each parameter. From these analyses, it was determined that thermal contact conductance between components is the parameter that contributes the highest uncertainty. The estimated uncertainty of the MiniFuel model fuel temperature predictions is ±80 °C in the removable beryllium and ±40 °C in the vertical experiment facilities. In conclusion, the framework established by the series of sensitivity analyses presented herein could easily be adapted to fit the needs of accelerated fuel qualification processes.

Fuel, Irradiation↗
DOE OSTI2026

Theory of the thermionic current beyond the traditional space charge limit enabled by trapped ions in the virtual cathode

We show that trapped ions in virtual cathode potential wells can raise the transmitted current of emitted electrons into a plasma much closer to the full emission than is predicted by cathode sheath theories without trapped ions. The transmitted current is controlled by the well barrier voltage, which must adjust to balance the creation of low-energy ions within the well, and their loss. Our model considers the case of a plasma-facing cathode where trapped ions are created passively via charge-exchange collisions and lost passively via thermal leakage over the well. We quantify these rates and estimate the current in terms of system parameters for thermionic emission into a plasma with several cathode geometries. A general prediction is that the current as a function of emitted flux does not saturate at the traditional space charge limit (the onset of a well) but can reach far higher values until the trapped ion balance breaks down, causing instability. The maximum stable current depends on parameters but in principle can be arbitrarily high if active techniques are used to manipulate the trapped ion balance. We conclude that major improvements in plasma technologies with hot cathodes might be achieved by optimizing the current enhancement enabled by trapped ions.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

tonalli : an asexual genetic code to characterize APOGEE-2 stellar spectra. I. Validation with synthetic and solar spectra

ABSTRACT We present tonalli, a spectroscopic analysis python code that efficiently predicts effective temperature, stellar surface gravity, metallicity, $\alpha$-element abundance, and rotational and radial velocities for stars with effective temperatures between 3200 and 6250 K, observed with the Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment 2 (APOGEE-2). tonalli implements an asexual genetic algorithm to optimize the finding of the best comparison between a target spectrum and the continuum-normalized synthetic spectra library from the Model Atmospheres with a Radiative and Convective Scheme (MARCS), which is interpolated in each generation. Using simulated observed spectra and the APOGEE-2 solar spectrum of Vesta, we study the performance, limitations, accuracy, and precision of our tool. Finally, a Monte Carlo realization was implemented to estimate the uncertainties of each derived stellar parameter.

Adame, Lucía (ORCID:0000000263286099)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating the impact of anatomical and physiological variability on human equivalent doses using PBPK models

Abstract Addressing human anatomical and physiological variability is a crucial component of human health risk assessment of chemicals. Experts have recommended probabilistic chemical risk assessment paradigms in which distributional adjustment factors are used to account for various sources of uncertainty and variability, including variability in the pharmacokinetic behavior of a given substance in different humans. In practice, convenient assumptions about the distribution forms of adjustment factors and human equivalent doses (HEDs) are often used. Parameters such as tissue volumes and blood flows are likewise often assumed to be lognormally or normally distributed without evaluating empirical data for consistency with these forms. In this work, we performed dosimetric extrapolations using physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models for dichloromethane (DCM) and chloroform that incorporate uncertainty and variability to determine if the HEDs associated with such extrapolations are approximately lognormal and how they depend on the underlying distribution shapes chosen to represent model parameters. We accounted for uncertainty and variability in PBPK model parameters by randomly drawing their values from a variety of distribution types. We then performed reverse dosimetry to calculate HEDs based on animal points of departure for each set of sampled parameters. Corresponding samples of HEDs were tested to determine the impact of input parameter distributions on their central tendencies, extreme percentiles, and degree of conformance to lognormality. This work demonstrates that the measurable attributes of human variability should be considered more carefully and that generalized assumptions about parameter distribution shapes may lead to inaccurate estimates of extreme percentiles of HEDs.

Toxicology↗
DOE OSTI2024

Three-dimensional superconductivity induced by an extremely small amount of Li in Li x ⁢SnSe 2

Unconventional superconductivity occurs often in materials with low dimensionality. Furthermore, we report superconductivity observed in layered Li x SnSe 2 with the superconducting transition temperature T c ~ 6 K. Through L⁢i + intercalation in semiconducting SnSe 2 via electrochemical process, Li x ⁢SnSe 2 is formed with an extremely small x value as estimated from the c-axis lattice parameter, carrier concentration, and first-principles calculations.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2025

Simplified Model and Approach to Transform Infrared Surface Temperature to Film Effectiveness in a Conjugate Heat Transfer Experiment

In the pursuit of more efficient gas turbines, film cooling is a critical technology. This article describes a simplified engineering model based on a one-dimensional thermal resistance network. The model is used to relate film-cooling effectiveness and heat transfer augmentation to local overall cooling effectiveness in a conjugate flat plate experiment. Here, this article presents experimental proof-of-concept data to demonstrate the potential for this model. In contrast to previous approaches, neither the wall heat flux nor the adiabatic wall temperature is required to estimate the local film-cooling performance parameters. The model predicts surface temperatures that are within the experimental uncertainties over the range for which the model is trained and to within five percent when the model is extrapolated to higher coolant channel Reynolds numbers. This article is relevant to conjugate test rigs that can measure the hot-surface temperature distribution with and without film cooling. This information may also be relevant to designers as a method to approximate surface temperatures or used as an approximate heat transfer model for optimization studies.

advanced turbines↗
DOE OSTI2026

Skin CO 2 sniffing for wearable metabolic monitoring

CO 2 is a key physiological parameter used to assess hypoventilation and to estimate metabolic rates. However, current CO 2 monitoring relies on bulky breath-analysis systems that are impractical for continuous use in daily life. Here, we present a wearable on-skin gas-sniffing system that quantifies skin-emitted CO 2 and establishes its physiological relevance through direct correlation with exhaled CO 2 and metabolic rate. Participant studies demonstrate strong correlations between CO 2 flow rates from the skin and breath during both rest and exercise, with skin-emitted CO 2 approximately four orders of magnitude lower than exhaled CO 2 . Skin-emitted CO 2 also correlates with metabolic rate, suggesting its potential as a surrogate for breath-based indirect calorimetry. With its wearable form factor and physiological relevance, this skin gas sniffing system enables continuous, noninvasive metabolic monitoring and opens opportunities for studying skin gas exchange.

Kim, Seung-Rok [University of California, Berkeley↗
DOE OSTI2026

Semi-Analytical Hierarchical Bayesian Inference of Nonlinear Model Structure in Stochastic Dynamics: Applied to Compartmental Models of Infectious Diseases

A Bayesian computational framework for parsimonious inference in stochastic nonlinear dynamical systems is presented. This framework enables the concurrent estimation of system states, time-varying parameters, time-invariant parameters, and the optimal sparsity structure of the model parameters. Because differential equation-based models are often simplified mechanistic or phenomenological representations, robust inference from noisy measurement data requires explicit treatment of model error and uncertainty. Model error and time-varying parameters can be represented as random processes, enabling inference while making minimal assumptions about the underlying sources of discrepancy and variability. Adopting stochastic differential equation representations affords the model significant flexibility, but can also render it susceptible to overfitting during statistical inversion, where the inferred model may track noise rather than the underlying signal. To alleviate the effects of overfitting and to enable the discovery of the optimal sparse representation of the time-invariant parameters, a Bayesian sparse learning algorithm is embedded within the framework. This sparse learning framework adopts an approximate hierarchical Bayesian setting defined by a series of semi-analytical expressions. The model structure inference framework is validated using a stochastic compartmental model for tracking and forecasting active cases of an infectious disease. Compartmental models describe population-level infectious disease dynamics through interactions among population fractions grouped by disease state. Mathematically, such models consist of a system of coupled ordinary differential equations. This example adopts an expressive compartmental model that includes multiple possible interactions between disease states, motivated by early uncertainty surrounding COVID-19 reinfection dynamics and their implications for long-term epidemic forecasting. The sparse learning exercise permits the inference of a priori unknown epidemiological dynamics from simulated public health data, discovering the nested compartmental model that optimizes the trade-off between average data-fit and model complexity. It is shown that inducing sparsity among the model parameters eliminates redundant interactions between compartments, equivalently revealing the optimal coupling structure between differential equations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Les Houches study on inclusive jet production at NNLO+NNLL

Jet production at the LHC is a powerful probe of QCD, making it ideal for precision tests and determinations of QCD parameters such as parton distribution functions and the strong coupling constant. To make the most of the abundant jet production data collected at the LHC, precise calculations are required. While state-of-the-art calculations reach next-to-next-to-leading order (NNLO) QCD accuracy, a critical assessment of the remaining uncertainties arising from non-perturbative effects and missing higher orders remains crucial for correctly interpreting comparisons between theory and data. Scale variation is nearly always used to determine effects from missing higher orders. In this article, we reassess this method in the context of inclusive jet production by performing NNLO QCD calculations supplemented by small-jet-radius resummation through next-to-next-to-leading-logarithmic accuracy (NNLL). We find that NNLL resummation can have an appreciable impact on the scale uncertainty for inclusive jet cross sections, and, for some scale choices, can lead to sizeable shifts of the central cross section. We conclude that scale variations in fixed-order and resummed calculations can drastically underestimate the impact of higher orders for commonly used jet radius parameters, and that missing higher-order estimates obtained via scale variations should be considered unreliable. Our findings add further evidence to the importance of going beyond scale variations in jet and jet substructure calculations.

Lee, Kyle↗
DOE OSTI2025

Comprehensive Neural Posterior Estimation for Galaxy-Galaxy Strong Lensing

We present a deep learning model based on neural posterior estimation (NPE) for comprehensive extraction of astrophysical parameters from galaxy-scale strong gravitational lenses. The unprecedentedly large amount of galaxy-scale strong lenses expected in future cosmological surveys (${\cal O}(10^5)$) promises to enable valuable statistical constraints in various studies ranging from galaxy formation to the nature of dark matter, but it also poses a significant challenge for traditional modelling pipelines. To this end, our automated model includes several new, state-of-the-art features and approaches leveraging the framework of simulation-based inference (SBI). We infer a total of 20 parameters describing the mass and light profiles of both lens and source galaxies, using simulated raw multi-band data modelled under noise and observing conditions expected by the Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST), with its summary statistics generated by a residual network. We examine the efficacy of multi-band data in extracting nearly 20 model parameters simultaneous from strong lensing images including lens light. Finally, We perform a comprehensive set of diagnostics for SBI models, evaluating the model's prediction accuracy, stability, and uncertainty quantification.

Zhao, Roy J. [Chicago U., KICP]↗
DOE OSTI2026

High Temperature High Vacuum Mechanical Property Assessment of Zirconium Nuclear Fuel Cladding

This report presents the mechanical characterization of a specific Zry-4 cladding batch serving as the foundation for a diverse range of fuel performance research at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). This effort supports research needs for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), particularly regarding evaluating accident tolerant fuel (ATF) cladding coating concepts, expanding understanding of cladding response to loss-of-coolant accidents (LOCA) transients, refining post-critical heat flux (CHF) limits (t@T), and upcoming irradiation campaigns. The central objective was to define the baseline performance of the substrate Zircaloy-4 (Zry-4) material leveraged across ORNL Advanced Fuel Campaign (AFC) efforts through controlled high-temperature vacuum tensile testing. This work begins to address gaps in existing models where implementation based on nominal heat-treatment labels, such as stress relief annealed (SRA), often fail to capture the interplay of recovery, recrystallization, and grain growth. To quantify this, data was benchmarked against the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) stress strain model to determine where this material falls in comparison to assumed values for materials in the same heat treatment regime. Analysis of the tensile data revealed that this specific SRA batch exhibits a transitional microstructural state best described by an effective cold-work (CW) parameter of 0.09, diverging from the previous estimation of 0.5 for SRA materials. Additionally, comparative testing of Cr coated specimens demonstrated no distinct difference in axial strength relative to the bare substrate. This suggests that the strengthening benefits of Cr coatings observed in burst scenarios are driven by residual stress mechanisms acting solely in the hoop direction.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2026

An Uncertainty-Informed and High-Fidelity Performance Forecasting Framework for Heliostat Fields

Concentrating Solar Thermal (CST) tower systems employ heliostat fields to direct solar energy to a central receiver, which then transfers the heat either directly to a thermal process (e.g., steam production) or to a thermal energy storage system for future use. Heliostat fields compose a significant proportion of the project costs of a CST tower system and the performance of the heliostats determines a plant's productivity at a given location. While CST characterization tools such as SolarPILOT and System Advisor Model (SAM) include a large collection of inputs that influence the performance of a CST tower system, many are uncertain prior to the development of the project and may have a significant impact on the overall energy delivery and profitability of a project; moreover, the fidelity of these models under default conditions may be insufficient to determine the value of component improvements such as those under development in the Heliostat Consortium. This work introduces a Monte Carlo simulation framework that incorporates uncertainty in key performance parameters to generate confidence intervals and percentile estimates for a CST solar field's energy delivery.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗