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DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation of GlassNet for physics-informed machine learning of glass stability and glass-forming ability

Glassy materials form the basis of many modern applications, including nuclear waste immobilization, touch-screen displays, and optical fibers, and also hold great potential for future medical and environmental applications. However, their structural complexity and large composition space make design and optimization challenging for certain applications. Of particular importance for glass processing and design is an estimate of a given composition's glass-forming ability (GFA). However, there remain many open questions regarding the underlying physical mechanisms of glass formation, especially in oxide glasses. It is apparent that a proxy for GFA would be highly useful in glass processing and design, but identifying such a surrogate property has proven itself to be difficult. While glass stability (GS) parameters have historically been used as a GFA surrogate, recent research has demonstrated that most of these parameters are not accurate predictors of the GFA of oxide glasses. Here, in this work, we explore the application of an open-source pre-trained neural network model, GlassNet, that can predict the characteristic temperatures necessary to compute GS with reasonable performance and assess the feasibility of using these physics-informed machine learning (PIML)-predicted GS parameters to estimate GFA. In doing so, we track the uncertainties at each step of the computation—from the original ML prediction errors to the compounding of errors during GS estimation, and finally to the final estimation of GFA. While GlassNet exhibits reasonable accuracy on all individual properties, we observe a large compounding of error in the combination of these individual predictions for the PIML prediction of GS, finding that random forest models offer similar accuracy to GlassNet. We also break down the performance of GlassNet on different glass families and find that the error in GS prediction is correlated with the error in crystallization peak temperature prediction. Lastly, we utilize this finding to assess the relationship between top-performing GS parameters and GFA for two ternary glass systems: sodium borosilicate and sodium iron phosphate glasses. We conclude that to obtain true ML predictive capability of GFA, significantly more data needs to be collected.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2019

Candidate Inorganic Photovoltaic Materials from Electronic Structure-Based Optical Absorption and Charge Transport Proxies

Approximately 33,000 valence-precise, ordered inorganic compounds tabulated in the Inorganic Crystal Structure Database have been screened for their potential as photovoltaic (PV) absorbers. This has been accomplished through the use of proxies for charge carrier mobilities and optical absorption properties from electronic structure calculations, in addition to constraints on thermodynamic stability. Preliminary screening of computed properties tabulated in the Materials Project Database, with subsequent high(er)-fidelity electronic structure calculations of optical properties and band gap corrections, indicates ≈200 known compounds on or near the convex hull which exhibit spectroscopic limited maximum efficiency (SLME) in excess of 25% for a 500 nm thin film, in addition to possessing low effective masses for both electrons and holes. Among the predicted high performers are nearly all the typical commercial inorganic thin-film PV materials and several previously unexplored candidates. The new candidates are drawn from a diverse set of chemical and structural families, including many chalcogenides and pnictides as well as antiperovskites, skutterudites, and semiconducting intermetallics. Here, carrier effective masses, SLME, corrected band gaps, and other relevant information for ≈800 compounds are made available for further analyses via the Materials Project MPContribs Framework.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Enabling particle applications for exascale computing platforms

The Exascale Computing Project (ECP) is invested in co-design to assure that key applications are ready for exascale computing. Within ECP, the Co-design Center for Particle Applications (CoPA) is addressing challenges faced by particle-based applications across four “sub-motifs”: short-range particle–particle interactions (e.g., those which often dominate molecular dynamics (MD) and smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) methods), long-range particle–particle interactions (e.g., electrostatic MD and gravitational N-body), particle-in-cell (PIC) methods, and linear-scaling electronic structure and quantum molecular dynamics (QMD) algorithms. Our crosscutting co-designed technologies fall into two categories: proxy applications (or “apps”) and libraries. Proxy apps are vehicles used to evaluate the viability of incorporating various types of algorithms, data structures, and architecture-specific optimizations and the associated trade-offs; examples include ExaMiniMD, CabanaMD, CabanaPIC, and ExaSP2. Libraries are modular instantiations that multiple applications can utilize or be built upon; CoPA has developed the Cabana particle library, PROGRESS/BML libraries for QMD, and the SWFFT and fftMPI parallel FFT libraries. Success is measured by identifiable “lessons learned” that are translated either directly into parent production application codes or into libraries, with demonstrated performance and/or productivity improvement. The libraries and their use in CoPA’s ECP application partner codes are also addressed.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2018

Comparing simulated and observed EMIC wave amplitudes using in situ Van Allen Probes’ measurements

In this study, we perform a statistical study calculating electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) wave amplitudes based off in situ plasma measurements taken by the Van Allen Probes’ (1.1–5.8 R e ) Helium, Oxygen, Proton, Electron (HOPE) instrument. Calculated wave amplitudes are compared to EMIC waves observed by the Electric and Magnetic Field Instrument Suite and Integrated Science on board the Van Allen Probes during the same period. The survey covers a 22-month period (1 November 2012 to 31 August 2014), a full Van Allen Probe magnetic local time (MLT) precession. The linear theory proxy was used to identify EMIC wave events with plasma conditions favorable for EMIC wave excitation. Two hundred and thirty-two EMIC wave events (103 H + -band and 129 He + -band) were selected for this comparison. Nearly all events selected are observed beyond L = 4. Results show that calculated wave amplitudes exclusively using the in situ HOPE measurements produce amplitudes too low compared to the observed EMIC wave amplitudes. Hot proton anisotropy (Ahp) distributions are asymmetric in MLT within the inner (L < 7) magnetosphere with peak (minimum) A hp , ~0.81 to 1.00 (~0.62), observed in the dawn (dusk), 0000 < MLT ≤ 1200 (1200 < MLT ≤ 2400), sectors. Measurements of A hp are found to decrease in the presence of EMIC wave activity. A hp amplification factors are determined and vary with respect to EMIC wave-band and MLT. Lastly, He + -band events generally require double (quadruple) the measured A hp for the dawn (dusk) sector to reproduce the observed EMIC wave amplitudes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Electrochemical quantification of phosphonic acid passivated surface sites of NiO x for perovskite solar cells

Nickel oxide (NiO x ) is among the few p-type metal oxide semiconductors considered a strong candidate for hole transport layers in halide perovskite solar cells (PSCs). However, its reactivity with perovskite ions poses significant challenges to achieving high efficiency and long-term stability. Here, we investigate passivation of detrimental reactive surface sites on NiO x by carbazole phosphonic acids. We leverage electrochemical cyclic voltammetry (CV) of NiO x electrodes as a proxy measure for the redox activity that afflicts PSCs. From the CVs, we derive a metric, N (units cm −2 ), that relates to the number of redox active sites on NiO x surfaces. We observe a statistically significant negative correlation between PSC efficiency and N-value that indicates PSCs are more efficient on NiO x with lower electrochemical reactivity. The new mechanistic insight into NiO x passivation demonstrates it requires a reducing agent and Brønsted acid combination, providing a broadly applicable approach for evaluating and enhancing the stability and performance of NiO x -based interfaces in photovoltaics.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2016

Quicksilver

Quicksilver is proxy application for the Monte Carlo Transport code, Mercury. The purpose of the Quicksilver mini-app is to create a freely distributable code base that represents the key elements of the Mercury workload by solving a simplified time-dependent neutron transport problem. As an open source code, Quicksilver will be hosted on the CZ git/stash repo alongside other mini-apps in the ACS so-design suite. It will be used by vendors and other partners for co-design activities such as identifying root causes of Mercury performance bottlenecks on future architectures (i.e., memory bandwidth, memory latency, flop intensity) and developing Quicksilver will be used within LLNL as a nimble platform to evaluate programming models, algorithms, etc. that might be useful in Mercury. Quicksilver may also become a replacement for MCB in future procurement benchmarks, as well as a way to engage vendors in the Trinity and Sierra Centers of Excellence as well as other co-design efforts.

Richards, David↗

DOE OSTI2016

Trial Implementation of the High-Impact, Low-Frequency Power Grid Event Risk Framework to Support Informed Decision-Making

In 2015, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) developed a multi-hazard risk-assessment framework for modeling high-impact, low-frequency (HILF) power grid events to support risk-informed decisions for power grid management and emergency planning. The identified framework elements are based on a systematic and comprehensive characterization of hazards to the level of detail required for modeling risk. In 2016, PNNL performed a trial implementation of the framework for a single hazard category and a set of key power grid asset types as a way to test the framework. A specific realization of a HILF event is referred to as an initiating event, or initiator. An initiating event is the manifestation of a hazard, and can be, for example, an earthquake of specified magnitude at a specified epicenter. Other examples of HILF events include geomagnetic disturbances and pandemics. For this test implementation, grid assets of a benchmark power system transmission network were assigned proxy geographical coordinates associated with Washington State locations; and real-world seismic hazard information was used for those locations. Based on the fragility of the grid assets to events of different severities, the set of possible failure scenarios (i.e., combinations of different asset failures) and their associated probabilities were determined, and recovery of grid assets and restoration of the network were considered. These combinations of failures and their subsequent recovery constitute a HILF event sequence that results in a given level of consequence, such as loss of power over a given geographic area for a given duration. The concurrent quantitative consideration of event probabilities and event consequences characterizes a risk model. For HILF event sequences, risk was expressed as expected unserved energy per year. This implementation demonstrates the feasibility and value of using the HILF event risk framework despite some of the identified challenges. This report discusses this trial implementation and presents risk results and insights from the implementation.

Veeramany, Arun↗

DOE OSTI2026

Machine learning enables reconstruction of past fire regimes from charcoal-derived fire intensity and fuel composition

Background Fire is a foundational ecological process that shapes ecosystem structure, diversity, and resilience. Quantifying paleofire regime attributes such as frequency, severity, and intensity is essential for understanding the historical range of variability in fire behavior and its ecological effects. While frequency and severity are often reconstructed in paleofire studies, quantitative reconstructions of fire intensity remain limited. Recent work has shown that maximum pyrolysis temperature—a proxy for fire intensity—and plant species type can be inferred from charcoal using transmission Fourier-transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy. However, the sample preparation for transmission FTIR is destructive and time-consuming, limiting application and reuse of materials for other analyses. We evaluated reflectance FTIR spectroscopy as a non-destructive alternative for reconstructing combustion temperature and plant species from laboratory-generated charcoal. We also examined the influence of contrasting airflow environments (ambient air versus nitrogen-rich) on pyrolysis temperature and plant species reconstruction prediction accuracies and compared predictive performance between a novel, neural network–based deep learning model with the traditional modern analogue technique (MAT) using k-nearest neighbor functions. As proof of concept, we apply our enhanced methodology to ancient charcoal to demonstrate applicability at improving long-term fire regime reconstructions and the ability to link paleofire records with contemporary fire ecology. Results Our analysis shows that transmission and reflectance FTIR spectra yield comparable spectral profiles. However, sample preparation for reflectance FTIR is minimal and non-destructive, unlike transmission FTIR which is destructive. We demonstrate that oxygen environments improved reconstruction accuracy relative to nitrogen-rich conditions. Finally, our deep learning neural network (DL) achieved testing accuracies of 98.7% for temperature and 96.2% for species identification, outperforming MAT’s k-NN approach (89.8% and 65.9%, respectively). A Shapley importance analysis identified 5 key spectral regions that greatly influenced the model’s temperature or species categorization. When applied to ancient charcoal, our results show historic fires from the most recent past primarily burned at low intensities (400–500 °C), reflective of natural fire regimes in ponderosa pine forests. Our results corroborate charcoal morphology data that suggests all ancient charcoal originated from burned woody plant types. Conclusions By combining reflectance FTIR spectroscopy with a deep learning approach, we provide the first accuracies high enough to confidently identify both species and temperature from laboratory-produced charcoal, improving quantitative reconstructions of fire intensity and fuel composition from paleofire records. This opens a wide range of research into the link between fire and larger drivers (i.e., climate or human) and greater ecological understanding of fire regimes beyond that of burn scars or recent observations. These methodological improvements have direct relevance for fire management by improving interpretation of historical fire behavior, informing fuel–fire relationships, and providing a scalable analytical framework applicable to both long-term ecological studies and contemporary fire science.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Evaluation and improvement of the parameterization of aerosol hygroscopicity in global climate models using in-situ surface measurements (Final Report)

Aerosols are tiny particles suspended on the atmosphere that can interact with incoming solar radiation and affect the Earth radiative budget. They do so by scattering and absorbing solar radiation, and these properties vary depending on the aerosol size and chemical composition. Moreover, by taking up water from the surrounding air, hygroscopic aerosol particles will grow in size and change their chemical composition, thus modifying their optical properties (scattering and absorption) and their final impact on radiative forcing calculations. An accurate knowledge of aerosol hygroscopicity is crucial for estimating the net radiative impact of aerosols. We took a three-pronged approach to improve our understanding of aerosol hygroscopicity and how it is implemented in Earth system models. In the first part of our project, we developed a benchmark dataset from existing aerosol hygroscopic growth measurements made by tandem nephelometer humidogram systems. We analyzed, using a standardized methodology, observations from 26 in-situ stations around the globe. Measurement data was collected from multiple data providers, reviewed and harmonized to create a consistent dataset of the scattering enhancement factor due to aerosol water uptake. This dataset is archived in several publicly available databases for use by interested researchers. In the second part of the project, we used the benchmark hygroscopicity dataset to perform a global study on aerosol hygroscopicity and aerosol optical properties. Measurements show a global picture of scattering enhancement with larger values for Arctic and marine sites and lower for urban and desert sites. We assessed the RH dependence of aerosol radiative forcing and showed that the overall effect of aerosol hygroscopicity on DARF is an increase in the absolute forcing effect (negative sign) by a factor of up to 4 compared to dry conditions (RH<40%). Finally, we explored using aerosol single scattering albedo (SSA) and scattering Angstrom exponent (SAE) as possible proxies for aerosol hygroscopicity. SSA showed more promise as a surrogate for the scattering enhancement factor than SAE, but neither was ideal. In the third part of the project we evaluated the output of ten Earth system models (ESMs) against the benchmark hygroscopicity dataset. ESMs utilize various schemes for aerosol hygroscopicity which had not been previously tested against observations on a global scale. We found that ESMs currently overestimate scattering enhancement due to hygroscopic growth. Model parameterizations of hygroscopicity and model chemistry are two main factors driving the observed diversity in hygroscopicity simulations among the models. In addition, our study makes several suggestions for modelers, including improving the parameterizations of organic and sea salt aerosol hygroscopicity. Future hygroscopicity model evaluation experiments should include the model data related to particles size which was not available for our study.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Does Bayesian model averaging improve polynomial extrapolations? Two toy problems as tests

We assess the accuracy of Bayesian polynomial extrapolations from small parameter values, x, to large values of x. We consider a set of polynomials of fixed order, intended as a proxy for a fixed-order effective field theory (EFT) description of data. We employ Bayesian model averaging (BMA) to combine results from different order polynomials (EFT orders). Our study considers two 'toy problems' where the underlying function used to generate data sets is known. We use Bayesian parameter estimation to extract the polynomial coefficients that describe these data at low x. A 'naturalness' prior is imposed on the coefficients, so that they are $\mathcal{O}(1)$. We BMA different polynomial degrees by weighting each according to its Bayesian evidence and compare the predictive performance of this BMA with that of the individual polynomials. In conclusion, the credibility intervals on the BMA forecast have the stated coverage properties more consistently than does the highest evidence polynomial, though BMA does not necessarily outperform every polynomial.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Point-spread Function Deconvolution of the IFU Data and Restoration of Galaxy Stellar Kinematics

We present a performance test of the point-spread function (PSF) deconvolution algorithm applied to astronomical integral field unit (IFU) spectroscopy data for restoration of galaxy kinematics. We deconvolve the IFU data by applying the Lucy–Richardson algorithm to the 2D image slice at each wavelength. We demonstrate that the algorithm can effectively recover the true stellar kinematics of the galaxy, by using mock IFU data with a diverse combination of surface brightness profile, signal-to-noise ratio, line-of-sight geometry, and line-of-sight velocity distribution (LOSVD). In addition, we show that the proxy of the spin parameter ${\lambda }_{{R}_{e}}$ can be accurately measured from the deconvolved IFU data. We apply the deconvolution algorithm to the actual SDSS-IV MaNGA IFU survey data. The 2D LOSVD, geometry, and ${\lambda }_{{R}_{e}}$ measured from the deconvolved MaNGA IFU data exhibit noticeable differences compared to the ones measured from the original IFU data. The method can be applied to any other regular-grid IFU data to extract the PSF-deconvolved spatial information.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Reviews and syntheses: Opportunities for robust use of peak intensities from high-resolution mass spectrometry in organic matter studies

Abstract. Earth's biogeochemical cycles are intimately tied to the biotic and abiotic processing of organic matter (OM). Spatial and temporal variations in OM chemistry are often studied using direct infusion, high-resolution Fourier transform mass spectrometry (FTMS). An increasingly common approach is to use ecological metrics (e.g., within-sample diversity) to summarize high-dimensional FTMS data, notably Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (FT-ICR MS). However, problems can arise when FTMS peak-intensity data are used in a way that is analogous to abundances in ecological analyses (e.g., species abundance distributions). Using peak-intensity data in this way requires the assumption that intensities act as direct proxies for concentrations. Here, we show that comparisons of the same peak across samples (within-peak) may carry information regarding variations in relative concentration, but comparing different peaks (between-peak) within or between samples does not. We further developed a simulation model to study the quantitative implications of using peak intensities to compute ecological metrics (e.g., intensity-weighted mean properties and diversity) that rely on information about both within-peak and between-peak shifts in relative abundance. We found that, despite analytical limitations in linking concentration to intensity, ecological metrics often perform well in terms of providing robust qualitative inferences and sometimes quantitatively accurate estimates of diversity and mean molecular characteristics. We conclude with recommendations for the robust use of peak intensities for natural organic matter studies. A primary recommendation is the use and extension of the simulation model to provide objective guidance on the degree to which conceptual and quantitative inferences can be made for a given analysis of a given dataset. Broad use of this approach can help ensure rigorous scientific outcomes from the use of FTMS peak intensities in environmental applications.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2015

Developing MiniApps on Modern Platforms Using Multiple Programming Models, In: 2015 IEEE International Conference on Cluster Computing

We have developed a set of reduced, proxy applications ("MiniApps") based on large-scale application codes supported at the Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF). The MiniApps are designed to encapsulate the details of the most important (i.e. the most time-consuming and/or unique) facets of the applications that run in production mode on the OLCF. In each case, we have produced or plan to produce individual versions of the MiniApps using different specific programming models (e.g., OpenACC, CUDA, OpenMP). We describe some of our initial observations regarding these different implementations along with estimates of how closely the MiniApps track the actual performance characteristics (in particular, the overall scalability) of the large-scale applications from which they are derived.

Computer Science↗

DOE OSTI2016

MiniApps derived from production HPC applications using multiple programing models

Here, we have developed a set of reduced, proxy applications (“MiniApps”) based on large-scale application codes supported at the Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF). The MiniApps are designed to encapsulate the details of the most important (i.e. the most time-consuming and/or unique) facets of the applications that run in production mode on the OLCF. In each case, we have produced or plan to produce individual versions of the MiniApps using different specific programing models (e.g., OpenACC, CUDA, OpenMP). We describe some of our initial observations regarding these different implementations along with estimates of how closely the MiniApps track the actual performance characteristics (in particular, the overall scalability) of the large-scale applications from which they are derived.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2019

Regimes of premixed turbulent spontaneous ignition and deflagration under gas-turbine reheat combustion conditions

Here we address the problem of turbulent spontaneous ignition vs. deflagration propagating against a mean residence time gradient, particularly relevant to the stabilization of quasi-steady diesel flames and gas-turbine reheat combustion, by performing a large series of statistically one-dimensional premixed turbulent flame DNS. An autoignitve mixture of hydrogen-vitiated air representative of gas-turbine reheat combustion is considered. First, we demonstrate that turbulence can trigger the transition from spontaneous ignition to a deflagration. We then construct a spontaneous ignition vs. deflagration regime diagram based on inflow velocity, turbulent velocity fluctuations and integral length scale and identify the mechanism that governs the transition from one propagation mode to the other. Finally, we propose a theoretical model that captures accurately this transition and assess the validity of a proxy based on chemical explosive mode analysis to determine the local propagation mode in complex configurations.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Using Maximum Circular Velocity in Halo Occupation Distribution Models to Predict Galaxy Clustering

Abstract Standard halo occupation distribution (HOD) models predict how galaxies occupy halos based on a single property, the virial mass, M vir . To incorporate galaxy assembly bias, we consider alternative halo mass proxies to use in the HOD. A promising replacement is maximum circular velocity, V max , which measures the halo’s potential well, and successfully predicts galaxy clustering in subhalo abundance matching models. We fit galaxy clustering measurements from SDSS DR7 with two modified HODs besides the standard M vir -based model: one where V max is used as the halo property that determines galaxy occupation, and the other adopting an adjustable combination of M vir and V max . Except for the reduced volume M r < − 20 threshold sample fit with V max alone, neither change improves the model performance in predicting the projected two-point correlation function, w p . We conclude that switching the primary variable to V max does not significantly improve the HOD model’s ability to fit galaxy clustering.

Mezini, Lorena↗

DOE OSTI2025

Challenges in quantifying unparameterized spatial uncertainties in deep geologic repositories for nuclear waste

Spatially heterogeneous uncertainties are prevalent in geophysical modeling applications, such as probabilistic post-closure performance assessment (PA) of deep geologic repositories for nuclear waste. Such uncertainties are often highly influential to model outputs, so it is desirable to identify the most important mechanisms by which they influence model predictions. However, these uncertainties are often unparameterized in the sense that there is no set of parameters that can be specified to yield a particular realization of the uncertainty. Additionally, the uncertainty is not intrinsically endowed with a parameterization that captures a realization’s mechanistic influence on model outputs. Therefore, in this work we present a novel methodology to develop and assess a set of proxy variables that aim to represent this influence. We show how they can be computed, downselected, and incorporated into the construction of statistical surrogate models mapping model inputs to outputs. We present our methodology in the context of a motivating application problem in deep geologic repository PA and discuss the challenges in capturing the effects of these spatial heterogeneities in uncertainty analyses.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2022

Computational Tools and Workflows for Quantitative Risk Assessment and Decision Support for Geologic Carbon Storage Sites: Progress and Insights from the U.S. DOE’s National Risk Assessment Partnership

The 2005 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on CCS raised the profile of CO2 capture and storage (CCS) as an important technology for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. CCS is now recognized as a key component of most climate change mitigation scenarios. Since publication of that report the international research, development, and deployment (RD&D) community has advanced key technical aspects, clarified regulatory requirements, explored value chain and infrastructure solutions, and developed incentive paradigms to enable and promote large-scale deployment of CCS. These efforts have included research to better characterize geologic storage resources, to improve injection performance and storage efficiency, to assess and manage subsurface environmental risks, and to advance monitoring technologies to assure system conformance. These efforts have helped to build confidence in the viability of geologic carbon storage (GCS), but stakeholder concerns about long-term risks and liability associated with GCS remain a hurdle to broad acceptance and large-scale deployment of CCS. Since 2010, the U.S. DOE’s National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) – a research collaboration between five contributing national laboratories – has worked to establish and demonstrate methods and tools to quantify and manage the subsurface environmental risks associated with GCS, amidst uncertainty. This work supports the Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management Carbon Transport and Storage Program’s goal of advancing safe and secure commercial-scale GCS deployment. To address the technical challenge of simulating the physical response of the GCS site to large-scale CO2 injection, NRAP has adopted an approach that relies on coupling computationally efficient reduced-order and/or data-driven proxy models of important system components (i.e., storage reservoir, sealing caprock, leakage pathways, intermediate formations, overlying groundwater aquifers, and the atmosphere) in integrated assessment framework. That integrated model of the physical system is complemented with fit-for purpose functionality to support site characterization and risk-related decisions. The recently released NRAP Phase II toolset includes the Open-Source Integrated Assessment Model (NRAP-Open-IAM) for evaluation of trends in leakage risk and potential impact, tools to support monitoring design optimization (Designs for Risk Evaluation and Management – DREAM v3.0 and Passive Seismic Monitoring Tool - PSMT), and tools for state of stress evaluation (State-of-Stress Analysis Tool - SOSAT) and forecasting induced seismicity risk. The NRAP team has also released a pair of reports describing conceptual workflows to incorporate physics-based, quantitative risk assessment into many of the design, planning, operation, and closure decisions for GCS projects. An online catalogue highlights published studies where these tools and methods are demonstrated. In this presentation, the utility of these products to assess risks and address key stakeholder questions will be highlighted through examples, and related insights about the safety and security of geologic carbon storage in qualified storage sites will be discussed. The prospect of rapid, large-scale deployment of GCS technology to aggressively reduce anthropogenic CO2 emissions requires careful consideration of interference between multiple commercial-scale storage projects within a basin. Going forward, NRAP is expanding and adapting site-scale risk quantification tools and methods to enable assessment of risks and inform management decisions for basin-scale deployment. Increasingly, this work will leverage next-generation approaches for surrogate modelling, fast prediction, and advanced visualization enabled by machine learning and artificial intelligence to promote virtual learning, scenario evaluation, and augment risk-based decision making.

quantitative risk assessment, geologic carbon stor↗