Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “persistence models”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 325 records · Page 18
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2017

On the Origin of Fast Radio Bursts (FRBs)

We derive stringent constraints on the persistent source associated with FRB 121102: size 0.3<R{sub 17.5} =(R/10{sup 17.5} cm)<3, age <10{sup 2.5} year, energy E≈10{sup 49}(ε{sub e}/0.2GeV){sup 3} erg, characteristic electron energy 0.1⩽ε{sub e}/1 GeV⩽0.5; the radiating plasma is confined by a cold plasma of mass M{sub c}<10{sup −1.5}R{sub 17.5}{sup 4} M{sub ⊙}; these properties are inconsistent with typical “magnetar wind nebulae” model predictions. The fact that ε{sub e}∼m{sub p}c{sup 2} suggests that the hot plasma was created by the ejection of a mildly relativistic, M≈E/c{sup 2}≈10{sup −5} M{sub ⊙} shell, which propagated into an extended ambient medium or collided with a pre-ejected shell. Independent of the persistent source model, we suggest a physical mechanism for the generation of fast radio bursts (FRBs): the ejection from an underlying compact object, R{sub s}=10{sup 6}R{sub s,6} cm, of highly relativistic shells with energy E{sub s}=10{sup 41}E{sub 41} erg and Lorentz factor γ{sub s}=10{sup 3}E{sub 41}{sup 1/8}R{sub s,6}{sup −3/8}, into a surrounding e − p plasma with density n∼10{sup −1} cm{sup −3} (consistent with that inferred for the persistent source). For E {sub s} similar to observed FRB energies, plasma conditions appropriate for strong synchrotron maser emission at ν{sub coh.}≈0.5E{sub 41}{sup 1/4}R{sub s,6}{sup −3/4} GHz are formed. A significant fraction of the deposited energy is converted to an FRB with duration R{sub s}/c, accompanied by ∼10 MeV gamma-rays carrying less energy than the FRB. The inferred energy and mass associated with the source suggest some type of a “weak stellar explosion,” where a neutron star is formed with relatively low mass and energy ejection. However, the current upper limit on R does not allow one to rule out M{sub c}∼1 M{sub ⊙}, or the ejection of a larger mass well before the ejection of the confining shell.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Temporal Error Correlations in a Terrestrial Carbon Cycle Model Derived by Comparison to Carbon Dioxide Eddy Covariance Flux Tower Measurements

Abstract Atmospheric CO 2 flux inversions require as input an estimate of spatial and temporal correlations of errors in their estimate of the prior mean. Some previous studies have used the differences in CO 2 daily average flux estimates produced by terrestrial carbon cycle models and eddy covariance measurements to constrain the flux error correlations. Since inversions are starting to resolve the daily cycle, we set out to examine the correlations at sub‐daily time scales, as well as the correlations across years. To this end, we examine the autocorrelations in the difference between net ecosystem‐atmosphere exchange measurements from 75 AmeriFlux towers and temporally downscaled high‐spatial‐resolution flux estimates from the Carnegie‐Ames‐Stanford Approach (CASA) terrestrial carbon cycle model. We find that the daily cycle is prominent in these hourly autocorrelations and that these autocorrelations persist across years. We propose a family of functions to model these temporal correlations in atmospheric inversions, and use cross validation to determine which of the correlation functions best fits autocorrelation data from towers not in the training set. Correlation functions with a component that attempts to model the daily cycle in the differences match correlations from other towers better than those without. Those models that reproduce the same correlation structures at 1‐year intervals while modulating the amplitudes of the correlations between those intervals improve the fit still further.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Model-based, in-situ, non-destructive qualification and certification of parts made by autonomous additive manufacturing

To address the significant productivity challenges associated with the qualification and certification (Q&C) tasks of additively manufactured (AM) parts, which have traditionally relied on rigorous post‐build inspection and testing, we propose an integrated framework that combines model‐based qualification and certification (MBQ&C) with autonomous additive manufacturing (AAM). MBQ&C employs high‐fidelity predictive models, developed within the Integrated Computational Materials Engineering (ICME) paradigm, to simulate process–structure–property–performance relationships for assessing a part’s fitness for use. Since predictive models are commonly machine learning (ML)-based or reduced-order surrogates of validated physics models, they run efficiently, enabling timely inference. In parallel, the self-driving AAM utilises ML-based adaptive, closed‐loop control strategies to avoid, mitigate, or repair defects and anomalies during fabrication, thereby increasing the likelihood of producing acceptable parts. A key feature of the combined AAM-MBQ&C framework is that predictive models explicitly incorporate defects or anomalies that persist after the build, using instance-specific data captured via in-situ sensing. This customisation enables a build‐specific assessment of fitness for use, rather than relying on nominal or generic parameters. Such individualised evaluation provides a robust basis for Q&C-related acceptance decisions relating to each build. Additionally, the rapid solution capabilities of ML or reduced-order models enable the determination of a part’s suitability for service shortly after build completion. As the framework matures, it has the potential to substantially reduce reliance on conventional point‐design approaches—such as time‐consuming post‐build computed tomography scanning and costly destructive testing. Thus, the AAM-MBQ&C framework represents a transformative, scalable strategy for quality assurance of AM components, as parts produced within a stable, validated, and certified envelope can be certified with reduced testing. Key benefits include: (1) significant gains in Q&C productivity through efficient, model-centric assessment; (2) performance-based classification of defects into critical and non-critical categories; (3) the ability to predict potential deviations in the performance of parts affected by real-time, adaptive process control interventions relative to those produced under a certified process, and (4) the enabling of virtual Q&C for service environments that are difficult, hazardous, or impractical to access or reproduce experimentally. Collectively, these capabilities strengthen the business case for AM, particularly for high‐consequence and mission‐critical applications. Finally, although this work focuses on powder-based AM, the proposed techniques could be extended to AM processes employing alternative feedstock forms.

Gunasegaram, Dayalan↗
NASA NTRS1972

Transequatorial effects of sea surface temperature anomalies in a global general circulation model

The global response of the atmosphere to a persistent anomalous pool of warm sea surface temperatures in the extratropical Pacific Ocean is examined in terms of the meridional pole-to-pole profile of the zonally-averaged 600 mb surface for periods up to 90 days. Following an initial hydrostatic inflation of the isobaric surface in the latitude of the warm pool, effects spread poleward within the hemisphere, then begin to appear after about two to three weeks in high latitudes of the opposite hemisphere, but with little or no response in the tropics. The same sea temperature anomaly field generates a stronger response in winter than in summer, and a very different reaction when located in the Southern Hemisphere than when in the Northern Hemisphere.

Spar, J.↗
DOE OSTI2017

A multi-species synthesis of physiological mechanisms in drought-induced tree mortality

Widespread tree mortality associated with drought has been observed on all forested continents and global change is expected to exacerbate vegetation vulnerability. Forest mortality has implications for future biosphere–atmosphere interactions of carbon, water and energy balance, and is poorly represented in dynamic vegetation models. Reducing uncertainty requires improved mortality projections founded on robust physiological processes. However, the proposed mechanisms of drought-induced mortality, including hydraulic failure and carbon starvation, are unresolved. A growing number of empirical studies have investigated these mechanisms, but data have not been consistently analysed across species and biomes using a standardized physiological framework. Here in this work, we show that xylem hydraulic failure was ubiquitous across multiple tree taxa at drought-induced mortality. All species assessed had 60% or higher loss of xylem hydraulic conductivity, consistent with proposed theoretical and modelled survival thresholds. We found diverse responses in non-structural carbohydrate reserves at mortality, indicating that evidence supporting carbon starvation was not universal. Reduced non-structural carbohydrates were more common for gymnosperms than angiosperms, associated with xylem hydraulic vulnerability, and may have a role in reducing hydraulic function. In conclusion, our finding that hydraulic failure at drought-induced mortality was persistent across species indicates that substantial improvement in vegetation modelling can be achieved using thresholds in hydraulic function.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Electro-Thermal Characterization of Dynamical VO 2 Memristors via Local Activity Modeling

We report translating the surging interest in neuromorphic electronic components, such as those based on nonlinearities near Mott transitions, into large-scale commercial deployment faces steep challenges in the current lack of means to identify and design key material parameters. These issues are exemplified by the difficulties in connecting measurable material properties to device behavior via circuit element models. Here, the principle of local activity is used to build a model of VO 2 /SiN Mott threshold switches by sequentially accounting for constraints from a minimal set of quasistatic and dynamic electrical and high-spatial-resolution thermal data obtained via in situ thermoreflectance mapping. By combining independent data sets for devices with varying dimensions, the model is distilled to measurable material properties, and device scaling laws are established. The model can accurately predict electrical and thermal conductivities and capacitances and locally active dynamics (especially persistent spiking self-oscillations). The systematic procedure by which this model is developed has been a missing link in predictively connecting neuromorphic device behavior with their underlying material properties, and should enable rapid screening of material candidates before employing expensive manufacturing processes and testing procedures.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2016

Modelling individual variability in growth of bull trout in the Walla Walla River Basin using a hierarchical von Bertalanffy growth model

Abstract We examined growth in length of fluvial bull trout ( Salvelinus confluentus ) in the Walla Walla River Basin, Washington and Oregon. Our objectives were to quantify individual variability in growth; examine growth within and among years, life history forms, life stages and sexes; and estimate von Bertalanffy growth parameters. Individual variability was evaluated by modelling asymptotic length ( L ∞ ) and the growth coefficient ( k ) as random variables. All models were fit with Bayesian methods and were evaluated for fit by the deviance information criterion. By incorporating individual variability, population‐level estimates of L ∞ and k appeared appropriate and estimated growth trajectories for specific bull trout fit individual observed patterns in growth. Growth trajectories and positive correlation between individual estimates of L ∞ and k suggest that some individuals grow at a faster rate and reach a larger maximum size than other individuals and those differences are maintained throughout life. Selected models suggest that fluvial migrants have higher estimates of L ∞ and k than residents, but there were only slight differences in parameter estimates among migrants from two adjacent spawning populations in the Walla Walla River Basin, as well as between males and females. Growth rates increased for fluvial migrants after subadult emigration. Individual variability in growth is consistent with the life history diversity assumed essential for bull trout population persistence. Quantifying this variability is important for modelling population dynamics and viability to conserve this threatened species.

Harris, Julianne E.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Modeling the Observed Solar Cycle Variations of the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO): Amplification by Wave Forcing

In several papers, the solar cycle (SC) effect in the lower atmosphere has been linked observationally to the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) of the zonal circulation, which is generated primarily by small-scale gravity waves (GW). Salby and Callaghan (2000) in particular analyzed the QBO, covering more than 40 years, and discovered that it contains a large SC signature at 20 km. With our Numerical Spectral Model (NSM), we conducted a 3D study to describe the QBO under the influence of the SC, and some results have been published (Mayr et al., GRL, 2005,2006). For a SC period of 10 years, the relative amplitude of radiative forcing is taken to vary exponentially with height, i.e., 0.2% at the surface, 2% at 50 km, 20% at 100 km and above. Applying spectral analysis to filter out and identify the SC signature, the model generates a relatively large modulation of the QBO, which reproduces the observations qualitatively. Our numerical results demonstrate that the modulation of the QBO, with constant phase relative to the SC, persist at least for 60 years. The same model run generates in the seasonal variations a hemispherically symmetric Equatorial Annual Oscillation (EAO, with 12-month period), which is confined to low latitudes like the QBO and is also modulated by the SC. Although the amplitude of the EAO is relatively small, its SC modulation is large, and it is in phase with that of the QBO. The SC modulated EAO is evidently the pathway and pacemaker for the solar influence on the QBO. To shed light on the dynamical processes involved, we present model results that show how the seasonal cycle induces the SC modulations of the EAO and QBO. Our analysis further demonstrates that the SC modulations of the QBO and EAO are amplified by the GW interaction with the flow. The GW momentum source clearly shows a SC modulation that is in phase with the corresponding modulations of the QBO and EAO. By tapping the momentum from the upward propagating GWs, the QBO and EAO apparently serve as conduits to amplify and transfer to lower altitudes the larger SC variations in the UV absorbed in the mesosphere. Our model also produces in the temperature variations of the QBO and EAO measurable SC modulations at polar latitudes near the tropopause, and such signatures have been reported in the literature. Contrary to conventional interpretation, however, we suggest that the effects are generated at least in part by the meridional circulation, and planetary waves presumably, which redistribute the energy from the equatorial region where wave forcing is very efficient and thereby amplifies the SC influence.

Mayr, Hans G.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Integrating Arctic Plant Functional Types in a Land Surface Model Using Above‐ and Belowground Field Observations

Abstract Accurate simulations of high‐latitude ecosystems are critical for confident Earth system model (ESM) projections of carbon cycle feedbacks to global climate change. Land surface model components of ESMs, including the E3SM Land Model (ELM), simulate vegetation growth and ecosystem responses to changing climate and atmospheric CO 2 concentrations by grouping heterogeneous vegetation into like sets of plant functional types (PFTs). Many such models represent high‐latitude vegetation using only two PFTs (shrub and grass), thereby missing the diversity of vegetation growth forms and functional traits in the Arctic. Here, we use field observations of biomass and leaf traits across a gradient of plant communities on the Seward Peninsula in northwest Alaska to replace the original ELM configuration for the first time with nine Arctic‐specific PFTs. The newly developed PFTs include: (1) nonvascular mosses and lichens, (2) deciduous and evergreen shrubs of various height classes, including an alder PFT, (3) graminoids, and (4) forbs. Improvements relative to the original model configuration included greater belowground biomass allocation, persistent fine roots and rhizomes of nonwoody plants, and better representation of variability in total plant biomass across sites with varying plant communities and depth to bedrock. Simulations through 2100 using the RCP8.5 climate scenario and constant PFT fractional areas showed alder‐dominated plant communities gaining more biomass and lichen‐dominated communities gaining less biomass compared to default PFTs. Our results highlight how representing the diversity of arctic vegetation and confronting models with measurements from varied plant communities improves the representation of arctic vegetation in terrestrial ecosystem models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Preheating after multifield inflation with nonminimal couplings. I. Covariant formalism and attractor behavior

This is the first of a three-part series of papers, in which we study the preheating phase for multifield models of inflation involving nonminimal couplings. We study the single-field attractor behavior that these models exhibit during inflation and quantify its strength and parameter dependence. We further demonstrate that the strong single-field attractor behavior persists after the end of inflation. Preheating in such models therefore generically avoids the “dephasing” that typically affects multifield models with minimally coupled fields, allowing efficient transfer of energy from the oscillating inflaton condensate(s) to coupled perturbations across large portions of parameter space. We develop a doubly covariant formalism for studying the preheating phase in such models and identify several features specific to multifield models with nonminimal couplings, including effects that arise from the nontrivial field-space manifold. In papers II and III, we apply this formalism to study how the amplification of adiabatic and isocurvature perturbations varies with parameters, highlighting several distinct regimes depending on the magnitude of the nonminimal couplings ${{\xi}}_{I}$.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2013

Intensification of North American Megadroughts through Surface and Dust Aerosol Forcing

Tree-ring-based reconstructions of the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) indicate that, during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), the central plains of North America experienced recurrent periods of drought spanning decades or longer. These megadroughts had exceptional persistence compared to more recent events, but the causes remain uncertain. The authors conducted a suite of general circulation model experiments to test the impact of sea surface temperature (SST) and land surface forcing on the MCA megadroughts over the central plains. The land surface forcing is represented as a set of dune mobilization boundary conditions, derived from available geomorphological evidence and modeled as increased bare soil area and a dust aerosol source (32deg-44degN, 105deg-95degW). In the experiments, cold tropical Pacific SST forcing suppresses precipitation over the central plains but cannot reproduce the overall drying or persistence seen in the PDSI reconstruction. Droughts in the scenario with dust aerosols, however, are amplified and have significantly longer persistence than in other model experiments, more closely matching the reconstructed PDSI. This additional drying occurs because the dust increases the shortwave planetary albedo, reducing energy inputs to the surface and boundary layer. The energy deficit increases atmospheric stability, inhibiting convection and reducing cloud cover and precipitation over the central plains. Results from this study provide the first model-based evidence that dust aerosol forcing and land surface changes could have contributed to the intensity and persistence of the central plains megadroughts, although uncertainties remain in the formulation of the boundary conditions and the future importance of these feedbacks.

Earth surface↗
NASA NTRS1979

Persistent emission from X-ray burst sources and the nature of galactic bulge X-ray sources

Intrinsic persistent emission from galactic bulge X-ray sources and the ratio of the average persistent X-ray luminosity to the time-averaged burst luminosity associated with Type I burst sources are discussed in the light of the thermonuclear flash model of X-ray burst emission. Values of the ratio between average persistent luminosity and time-averaged burst luminosity for a large collection of SAS 3 sources are presented to confirm the predictions of the burst model of thermonuclear flashes in freshly accreted matter on a neutron star. The model also predicts a critical value of the persistent accretion rate, below which bursts can occur. It is suggested that the galactic bulge X-ray sources represent neutron stars undergoing accretion, with burst sources accounting for a subset in which the accretion rate is below the critical value.

Van Paradijs, J.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Insights into the year-round vertical distribution of chlorophyll concentration in high-latitude Arctic Ocean: implications for primary production

Climate-induced rapid changes in the Arctic Ocean, such as decreasing sea ice extent and increasing water temperature, are altering nutrient and light availability, profoundly impacting primary producer growth. However, access to the high-latitude Arctic Ocean is limited, and satellite data are primarily available only during summer, making continuous in-situ data collection challenging. We collected year-round chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentration data in high-latitude regions using a mooring system and performed a comparative analysis with reanalysis data. Unlike previous satellite-based studies, which typically rely on surface measurements, we used the annual vertical distribution of Chl-a. These data were applied to the vertically generalized production model to accurately estimate annual primary production. The moored Chl-a concentration data showed that phytoplankton exhibited a typical subsurface chlorophyll maximum (SCM) layer as sea ice retreated in June. Contrary to the gradually deepening SCM distribution predicted by model-based reanalysis data, the SCM layer persisted for approximately 4 months. This indicates that light and nutrient conditions within the SCM layer remained stable, sustaining continuous phytoplankton growth. Annual primary production, reflecting this vertical distribution of Chl-a concentration, was 6.85 gC m −2 yr −1 . This exceeded satellite-based estimates by at least two-fold, highlighting the significant underestimation of primary production by satellite approaches. Estimating primary production while accounting for the vertical distribution of phytoplankton and light is essential for improving ecological models to better understand carbon cycle and food web changes in the Arctic Ocean, with important implications for climate change predictions.

Arctic Ocean↗
NASA NTRS2003

Enhanced Multi-Modal Access to Planetary Exploration

Tomorrow's Interplanetary Network (IPN) will evolve from JPL's Deep-Space Network (DSN) and provide key capabilities to future investigators, such as simplified acquisition of higher-quality science at remote sites and enriched access to these sites. These capabilities could also be used to foster public interest, e.g., by making it possible for students to explore these environments personally, eventually perhaps interacting with a virtual world whose models could be populated by data obtained continuously from the IPN. Our paper looks at JPL's approach to making this evolution happen, starting from improved communications. Evolving space protocols (e.g., today's CCSDS proximity and file-transfer protocols) will provide the underpinning of such communications in the next decades, just as today's rich web was enabled by progress in Internet Protocols starting from the early 1970's (ARPAnet research). A key architectural thrust of this effort is to deploy persistent infrastructure incrementally, using a layered service model, where later higher-layer capabilities (such as adaptive science planning) are enabled by earlier lower-layer services (such as automated routing of object-based messages). In practice, there is also a mind shift needed from an engineering culture raised on point-to-point single-function communications (command uplink, telemetry downlink), to one in which assets are only indirectly accessed, via well-defined interfaces. We are aiming to foster a 'community of access' both among space assets and the humans who control them. This enables appropriate (perhaps eventually optimized) sharing of services and resources to the greater benefit of all participants. We envision such usage to be as automated in the future as using a cell phone is today - with all the steps in creating the real-time link being automated.

interplanetary network (IPN)↗
DOE OSTI2018

Superior signal persistence of circularly polarized light in polydisperse, real-world fog environments

Here, we present simulation results quantitatively showing that circularly polarized light persists in transmission through several real-world and model fog environments better than linearly polarized light over broad wavelength ranges from the visible through the infrared. We present results for polydisperse particle distributions from realistic and measured fog environments, comparing the polarization persistence of linear and circular polarization. Using a polarization-tracking Monte Carlo program, we simulate polarized light propagation through four MODTRAN fog models (moderate and heavy radiation fog and moderate and heavy advection fog) and four real-world measured fog particle distributions (Garland measured radiation and advection fogs, Kunkel measured advection fog, and Sandia National Laboratories’ Fog Facility’s fog). Simulations were performed for each fog environment with wavelengths ranging from 0.4 to 12 µm for increasing optical thicknesses of 5, 10, and 15 (increasing fog density or sensing range). Circular polarization persists superiorly for all optical wavelength bands from the visible to the long-wave infrared in nearly all fog types for all optical thicknesses. Throughout our analysis, we show that if even a small percentage of a fog’s particle size distribution is made up of large particles, those particles dominate the scattering process. In nearly all real-world fog situations, these large particles and their dominant scattering characteristics are present. Larger particles are predominantly forward-scattering and contribute to circular polarization’s persistence superiority over broad wavelength ranges and optical thicknesses/range. Circularly polarized light can transmit over 30% more signal in its intended state compared to linearly polarized light through real-world fog environments. This work broadens the understanding of how circular polarization persists through natural fog particle distributions with natural variations in mode particle radius and single or bimodal characteristics.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2019

Taking climate model evaluation to the next level

We report that earth system models are complex and represent a large number of processes, resulting in a persistent spread across climate projections for a given future scenario. Owing to different model performances against observations and the lack of independence among models, there is now evidence that giving equal weight to each available model projection is suboptimal. This Perspective discusses newly developed tools that facilitate a more rapid and comprehensive evaluation of model simulations with observations, process-based emergent constraints that are a promising way to focus evaluation on the observations most relevant to climate projections, and advanced methods for model weighting. Lastly, these approaches are needed to distill the most credible information on regional climate changes, impacts, and risks for stakeholders and policy-makers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

HSW-V v1.0: localized injections of interactive volcanic aerosols and their climate impacts in a simple general circulation model

Abstract. A new set of standalone parameterizations is presented for simulating the injection, evolution, and radiative forcing by stratospheric volcanic aerosols against an idealized Held–Suarez–Williamson (HSW) atmospheric background in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SMv2). In this model configuration (HSW with enabled volcanism, HSW-V), sulfur dioxide (SO2) and ash are injected into the atmosphere with a specified profile in the vertical, and they proceed to follow a simple exponential decay. The SO2 decay is modeled as a perfect conversion to a long-living sulfate aerosol which persists in the stratosphere. All three species are implemented as tracers in the model framework and are transported by the dynamical core's advection algorithm. The aerosols contribute simultaneously to local heating of the stratosphere and cooling of the surface by a simple plane-parallel Beer–Lambert law applied on two zonally symmetric radiation broadbands in the longwave and shortwave ranges. It is shown that the implementation parameters can be tuned to produce realistic temperature anomaly signatures of large volcanic events. In particular, results are shown for an ensemble of runs that mimic the volcanic eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in 1991. The design requires no coupling to microphysical subgrid-scale parameterizations and thus approaches the computational affordability of prescribed aerosol forcing strategies. The idealized simulations contain a single isolated volcanic event against a statistically uniform climate, where no background aerosols or other sources of externally forced variability are present. HSW-V represents a simpler-to-understand tool for the development of climate source-to-impact attribution methods.

Hollowed, Joseph P. (ORCID:0000000286581672)↗
NASA NTRS2019

Taking Climate Model Evaluation to the Next Level

Earth system models are complex and represent a large number of processes, resulting in a persistent spread across climate projections for a given future scenario. Owing to different model performances against observations and the lack of independence among models, there is now evidence that giving equal weight to each available model projection is suboptimal. This Perspective discusses newly developed tools that facilitate a more rapid and comprehensive evaluation of model simulations with observations, process-based emergent constraints that are a promising way to focus evaluation on the observations most relevant to climate projections, and advanced methods for model weighting. These approaches are needed to distil the most credible information on regional climate changes, impacts, and risks for stakeholders and policy-makers.

Eyring, Veronika↗