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Supporting Hazard Analysis for Wildfire Response Using fmdtools and MIKA

The System Wide Safety (SWS) Safety Demonstrator (SD) Series drives development of an increasingly capable In-Time Aviation Safety Management System (IASMS) focusing on humanitarian applications, starting with wildfire response (SD-1). The goals of this report are to (1) provide an early hazard analysis and mitigation evaluation of wildfire response to support these efforts and (2) provide a demonstration of capabilities of the Fault Model Design Tools (fmdtools) and Manager for Intelligent Knowledge Access (MIKA) tools. fmdtools provides a modeling, simulation, and resiliency analysis framework in which a wildfire response model, the System Modeling and Analysis of Resiliency in Scalable Traffic Management for Emergency Response Operations (SMARt-STEReO), is built. MIKA is an intelligent knowledge manager with several capabilities, including assisting in hazard analysis by extracting and analyzing hazards from historical incident reports. The following topics are covered in the report: Understanding Wildfire Hazard Dynamics. We provide a description and simulated examples of how hazards occur in the SMARt-STEReO model of wildfire response and their effect on its outcome. This provides a common mental model and focuses the analysis presented in the remainder of the report. Wildfire Hazard Identification. MIKA identifies wildfire hazards from three relevant datasets: the ICS-209-PLUS, SAFECOM, and SAFENET. Hazards are manually organized into a taxonomy and MIKA analyzes each hazard’s effects, likelihood, severity, and risk. Evaluating Mitigation Strategies. The SMARt-STEReO wildfire response model built in fmdtools evaluates a subset of identified hazards. Specifically, we simulate the effect of communications faults and equipment faults on operator safety, the effect of changing winds and flammability, and a scenario with multiple ignition points and heavy smoke. Tool Limitations and Usage Considerations. We provide a discussion of appropriate tool use cases as well as limitations and considerations for usage. The tool findings are used to synthesize recommendations for wildfire response operations, which can be captured as part of an IASMS. Key recommendations are as follows: Hazards are identified from a broad spectrum of sources including aircraft subsystems, operational sources, and ground crew operations. Highest risk operational environment hazards identified are Evacuations. The highest risk manned aerial operations hazard categorized is Jumper Operations Mishap. Ground crew hazards that are highest risk are Burns, Cargo Operations Overhead, Dehydration, Entrapment, Falling Objects, Heart Attacks, Heat Exhaustion, Inadequate Training or Certification, Vehicle Breakdown, and Vehicle Collision. Modelled containment failures arise from a mismatch between the difficulty of the firefighting scenario and the capacity (e.g., speed, effectiveness, awareness) of the response. In firefighting scenarios where containment is possible (e.g., because the fire does not spread too quickly), these mismatches can occur because of a change in environmental conditions (e.g., wind, flammability, etc) or because of planning, equipment, or communications faults. Improvements to communications increase the capacity of the firefighting response by reducing the time needed to respond to the fire. While surveillance does not increase this capacity by itself, it increases operator safety by increasing state awareness, enabling firefighters to evade approaching fires. Increasing both has a synergistic effect. In general, these performance and resilience increases generalize over fault scenarios as well as unforeseen changes to circumstances (i.e., wind, aridity, etc.). However, these improvements need to be designed so as not to make the system prone to persistent large-scale communications outages, which can reduce performance.

Hazard analysis↗

Using Laser Altimetry to Detect Topographic Change in Long Valley Caldera, California

Long Valley caldera California, is a site of extensive volcanism, persistent seismicity, and uplift of a resurgent dome, currently at a rate of about 3 cm/year. Airborne laser altimetry was used to determine the surface topography of the region in 1993. A repeat mission occurred in 1995. Three different laser altimeters were flown, dubbed ATLAS, SLICER and RASCAL. Data processing consists of the combination of the aircraft trajectory and attitude data with the laser range, the determination of an atmospheric delay, laser pulse timing errors, laser system biases, and data geolocation to obtain the position of the laser spot on the ground. Results showed that using the ATLAS and SLICER instruments, the elevation of an overflown lake is determined to precisions of 3.3 cm and 2.9 cm from altitudes of 500 m and 3 km above the ground, and about 10 cm using the RASCAL instrument from 500 m above ground. Comparison with tide gauge data showed the laser measurements are able to resolve centimeter-level changes in the lake elevation over time. Repeat pass analysis of tracks over flat surfaces indicate no systematic biases affect the measurement procedure of the ATLAS and SLICER instruments. Comparison of GPS and laser-derived elevations of easily-identifiable features in the caldera confirm the horizontal accuracy of the measurement is within the diameter of the laser footprint, and vertical accuracy is within the error inherent in the measurement. Crossover analysis shows that the standard error of the means at track intersection points within the caldera, and dome (i.e., where zero and close to the maximum amount of uplift is expected) are about I cm, indicating elevation change at the 3 cm/year level should be detectable. We demonstrate one of the powerful advantages of scanning laser altimetry over other remote sensing techniques; the straightforward creation of precise digital elevation maps of overflown terrain. Initial comparison of the 1993-1995 data indicates uplift occurred, but filtering is required to remove vegetation effects. Although research continues to utilize the full potential of laser altimetry data, the results constitute a successful demonstration that the technique may be used to perform geodetic monitoring of surface topographic change.

Hofton, M. A.↗

Using Laser Altimetry to Detect Topographic Change at Long Valley Caldera, California

Long Valley caldera, California, is a site of extensive volcanism, persistent seismicity, and uplift of a resurgent dome, currently at a rate of approximately 3 cm/year. Airborne laser altimetry was used to determine the surface topography of the region in 1993. A repeat mission occurred in 1995. Three different laser altimeters were flown, dubbed ATLAS, SLICER and RASCAL. Data processing consists of the combination of the aircraft trajectory and attitude data with the laser range, the determination of an atmospheric delay, laser pulse timing errors, laser system biases, and data geolocation to obtain the position of the laser spot on the ground. Results showed that using the ATLAS and SLICER instruments, the elevation of an overflown lake is determined to precisions of 3.3 cm and 2.9 cm from altitudes of 500 m and 3 km above the ground, and approximately 10 cm using the RASCAL instrument from 500 m above ground. Comparison with tide gauge data showed the laser measurements are able to resolve centimeter-level changes in the lake elevation over time. Repeat pass analysis of tracks over flat surfaces indicate no systematic biases affect the measurement procedure of the ATLAS and SLICER instruments. Comparison of GPS and laser-derived elevations of easily-identifiable features in the caldera confirm the horizontal accuracy of the measurement is within the diameter of the laser footprint, and vertical accuracy is within the error inherent in the measurement. Crossover analysis shows that the standard error of the means at track intersection points within the caldera and dome (i.e., where zero and close to the maximum amount of uplift is expected) are about 1 cm, indicating elevation change at the 3 cm/year level should be detectable. We demonstrate one of the powerful advantages of scanning laser altimetry over other remote sensing techniques; the straightforward creation of precise digital elevation maps of overflown terrain. Initial comparison of the 1993-1995 data indicates uplift occurred, but filtering is required to remove vegetation effects. Although research continues to utilize the full potential of laser altimetry data, the results constitute a successful demonstration that the technique may be used to perform geodetic monitoring of surface topographic change.

Hofton, M. A.↗

Intelligent Change Detection System: Autonomous Intelligent Machine Agent Model Development

NASA’s significant role in facilitating the harmonious integration of unmanned aircraft systems (UAS), with other aerial vehicles operating in the National Airspace System (NAS), has revealed a need for more advanced technological tools than are being utilized currently. This technology would lend itself to significantly assisting Direct-Action Aviation Personnel (DAAP) with the ingress and egress of UAS operations within the NAS. Providing research findings that would reduce technical barriers, associated with UAS-NAS integration, has been a persistent effort by both NASA and the FAA. One such research effort, pursued by NASA’s Transformative Tools and Technologies – Revolutionary Aviation Mobility (T3-RAM) project, is the development of an autonomous intelligent machine (AIM) agent that would aid DAAP functioning as implemented in remote ground control stations (RGCS). This evolution of the “human-machine” symbiosis, within the aviation environment, is necessary for many reasons. For example, there are projections of large increases to the 864,000 registered UAS and 45,000 aviation operations taking place in the NAS each day. With a data output range from 1 to 20 terabytes per flight or each aerial vehicle, which is projected to have proportional rate increase to that of registered UASs. It is evident, that due to the projected increase of UASs and their generated data, the human-agent’s data managing capabilities will be quickly overwhelmed by the enormous amounts of data emanating in the NAS. The research efforts presented in this paper puts forward results from the development, assessment, and verification of a previously conceptualized AIM-Agent that combats actionable-data (information) errors resulting from the visual perception phenomenon known as “change blindness” (CB). CB has been identified as one of the main culprits of information erroring encountered within the ground control station operator (GCSO) community.

Change Blindness↗

Initial Exploratory Study of the Impacts of Climate Change on Air Traffic Operations

Climate change is already happening and is projected to accelerate in the future. It will persist for the foreseeable future, even with optimistic projections of technological advances and behavior changes. It will make aviation more and more challenging over time. Among other things, it is expected to cause increased severe weather, more extreme temperatures, and rising sea levels that constrain when, where, and how aircraft can fly. NASA has many prior, ongoing, and upcoming efforts towards mitigating the impacts of aviation on climate change. There is also a need to perform a comprehensive investigation of the reverse: that is, the impacts of climate change on aviation. This is an initial exploratory study on this topic utilizing the NAS Digital Twin—composed of the ATM TestBed simulation platform and NAS Digital Twin airspace management algorithms—to run NAS-wide simulations with Convective Weather Avoidance Model polygons at different avoidance thresholds to emulate the increase in severe weather that could manifest due to climate change. It was found that air traffic management may be able to limit the impact of climate change in terms of delay and fuel burn. However, increased severe weather due to climate change can make separation—particularly, aircraft-to-weather separation—more challenging by reducing available airspace and constraining the solution space. Challenging situations were identified and corresponding potential solutions were proposed towards ensuring air traffic operations continue to be robust and resilient to the impacts of increased severe weather due to climate change.

climate change, weather, air traffic operations↗

Further Studies on the Physical and Biogeochemical Causes for Large Interannual Changes in the Patagonian Shelf Spring-Summer Phytoplankton Bloom Biomass

A very strong and persistent phytoplankton bloom was observed by ocean color satellites during September - December 2003 along the northern Patagonian shelf. The 2003 bloom had the highest extent and chlorophyll a (Chl-a) concentrations of the entire Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) period (1997 to present). SeaWiFS-derived Chl-a exceeded 20 mg/cu m in November at the bloom center. The bloom was most extensive in December when it spanned more than 300 km across the shelf and nearly 900 km north-south (35degS to 43degS). The northward reach and the deep penetration on the shelf of the 2003 bloom were quite anomalous when compared with other years, which showed the bloom more confined to the Patagonian shelf break (PSB). The PSB bloom is a conspicuous austral spring-summer feature detected by ocean color satellites and its timing can be explained using the Sverdrup critical depth theory. Based on high-resolution numerical simulations, in situ and remote sensing data, we provide some suggestions for the probable mechanisms responsible for that large interannual change of biomass as seen by ocean color satellites. Potential sources of macro and micro (e.g., Fe) nutrients that sustain the high phytoplankton productivity of the Patagonian shelf waters are identified, and the most likely physical processes that maintain the nutrient balance in the region are discussed.

Signorini, Sergio R.↗

Modeling of Alkane Oxidation Using Constituents and Species

It is currently not possible to perform simulations of turbulent reactive flows due in particular to complex chemistry, which may contain thousands of reactions and hundreds of species. This complex chemistry results in additional differential equations, making the numerical solution of the equation set computationally prohibitive. Reducing the chemical kinetics mathematical description is one of several important goals in turbulent reactive flow modeling. A chemical kinetics reduction model is proposed for alkane oxidation in air that is based on a parallel methodology to that used in turbulence modeling in the context of the Large Eddy Simulation. The objective of kinetic modeling is to predict the heat release and temperature evolution. This kinetic mechanism is valid over a pressure range from atmospheric to 60 bar, temperatures from 600 K to 2,500 K, and equivalence ratios from 0.125 to 8. This range encompasses diesel, HCCI, and gas-turbine engines, including cold ignition. A computationally efficient kinetic reduction has been proposed for alkanes that has been illustrated for n-heptane using the LLNL heptane mechanism. This model is consistent with turbulence modeling in that scales were first categorized into either those modeled or those computed as progress variables. Species were identified as being either light or heavy. The heavy species were decomposed into defined 13 constituents, and their total molar density was shown to evolve in a quasi-steady manner. The light species behave either in a quasi-steady or unsteady manner. The modeled scales are the total constituent molar density, Nc, and the molar density of the quasi-steady light species. The progress variables are the total constituent molar density rate evolution and the molar densities of the unsteady light species. The unsteady equations for the light species contain contributions of the type gain/loss rates from the heavy species that are modeled consistent with the developed mathematical forms for the total constituent molar density rate evolution; indeed, examination of these gain/loss rates shows that they also have a good quasi-steady behavior with a functional form resembling that of the constituent rate. This finding highlights the fact that the fitting technique provides a methodology that can be repeatedly used to obtain an accurate representation of full or skeletal kinetic models. Assuming success with the modified reduced model, the advantage of the modeling approach is clear. Because this model is based on the Nc rate rather than on that of individual heavy species, even if the number of species increases with increased carbon number in the alkane group, providing that the quasi-steady rate aspect persists, then extension of this model to higher alkanes should be conceptually straightforward, although it remains to be seen if the functional fits would remain valid or would require reconstruction.

Bellan, Jasette↗

International Space Station (ISS) Plasma Contactor Unit (PCU) Utilization Plan Assessment Update

The International Space Station (ISS) vehicle undergoes spacecraft charging as it interacts with Earth's ionosphere and magnetic field. The interaction can result in a large potential difference developing between the ISS metal chassis and the local ionosphere plasma environment. If an astronaut conducting extravehicular activities (EVA) is exposed to the potential difference, then a possible electrical shock hazard arises. The control of this hazard was addressed by a number of documents within the ISS Program (ISSP) including Catastrophic Safety Hazard for Astronauts on EVA (ISS-EVA-312-4A_revE). The safety hazard identified the risk for an astronaut to experience an electrical shock in the event an arc was generated on an extravehicular mobility unit (EMU) surface. A catastrophic safety hazard, by the ISS requirements, necessitates mitigation by a two-fault tolerant system of hazard controls. Traditionally, the plasma contactor units (PCUs) on the ISS have been used to limit the charging and serve as a "ground strap" between the ISS structure and the surrounding ionospheric plasma. In 2009, a previous NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) team evaluated the PCU utilization plan (NESC Request #07-054-E) with the objective to assess whether leaving PCUs off during non-EVA time periods presented risk to the ISS through assembly completion. For this study, in situ measurements of ISS charging, covering the installation of three of the four photovoltaic arrays, and laboratory testing results provided key data to underpin the assessment. The conclusion stated, "there appears to be no significant risk of damage to critical equipment nor excessive ISS thermal coating damage as a result of eliminating PCU operations during non- EVA times." In 2013, the ISSP was presented with recommendations from Boeing Space Environments for the "Conditional" Marginalization of Plasma Hazard. These recommendations include a plan that would keep the PCUs off during EVAs when the space environment forecast input to the ISS charging model indicates floating potentials (FP) within specified limits. These recommendations were based on the persistence of conditions in the space environment due to the current low solar cycle and belief in the accuracy and completeness of the ISS charging model. Subsequently, a Noncompliance Report (NCR), ISS-NCR-232G, Lack of Two-fault Tolerance to EVA Crew Shock in the Low Earth Orbit Plasma Environment, was signed in September 2013 specifying new guidelines for the use of shock hazard controls based on a forecast of the space environment from ISS plasma measurements taken prior to the EVA [ISS-EVA-312-AC, 2012]. This NESC assessment re-evaluates EVA charging hazards through a process that is based on over 14 years of ISS operations, charging measurements, laboratory tests, EMU studies and modifications, and safety reports. The assessment seeks an objective review of the plasma charging hazards associated with EVA operations to determine if any of the present hazard controls can safely change the PCU utilization plan to allow more flexibility in ISS operations during EVA preparation and execution.

Hernandez-Pellerano, Amri↗

Autonomous Landing and Ingress of Micro-Air-Vehicles in Urban Environments Based on Monocular Vision

Unmanned micro air vehicles (MAVs) will play an important role in future reconnaissance and search and rescue applications. In order to conduct persistent surveillance and to conserve energy, MAVs need the ability to land, and they need the ability to enter (ingress) buildings and other structures to conduct reconnaissance. To be safe and practical under a wide range of environmental conditions, landing and ingress maneuvers must be autonomous, using real-time, onboard sensor feedback. To address these key behaviors, we present a novel method for vision-based autonomous MAV landing and ingress using a single camera for two urban scenarios: landing on an elevated surface, representative of a rooftop, and ingress through a rectangular opening, representative of a door or window. Real-world scenarios will not include special navigation markers, so we rely on tracking arbitrary scene features; however, we do currently exploit planarity of the scene. Our vision system uses a planar homography decomposition to detect navigation targets and to produce approach waypoints as inputs to the vehicle control algorithm. Scene perception, planning, and control run onboard in real-time; at present we obtain aircraft position knowledge from an external motion capture system, but we expect to replace this in the near future with a fully self-contained, onboard, vision-aided state estimation algorithm. We demonstrate autonomous vision-based landing and ingress target detection with two different quadrotor MAV platforms. To our knowledge, this is the first demonstration of onboard, vision-based autonomous landing and ingress algorithms that do not use special purpose scene markers to identify the destination.

micro air vehicles (MAVs)↗

Comparing Tropopause-Penetrating Convection Identifications Derived from NEXRAD and GOES over the Contiguous United States

Overshooting cloud tops (OTs) are a result of powerful updrafts that rapidly transport air from the troposphere to the lower stratosphere. Aside from the well-known relationships between strong updrafts and severe weather, the boundaries of updrafts, including the OT, are turbulent, which leads to irreversible mixing of air between the stratosphere and troposphere, altering the composition of both layers. In order to better understand the impact of OTs, knowing precisely when and where they occur is vital. Within the last decade remote-sensing observations from satellites and radars have been used to identify OTs, but the results thus far have not been entirely consistent due to challenges with accurately identifying OTs with these sensor datasets. This study compares OTs identified using NEXRAD reflectivity data from the GridRad dataset with an approach that uses GOES infrared (IR) data. The GridRad method estimates the altitude of echo tops directly from the radar pointing geometry, merging a combination of radars that enables products every 5 mins, with 2 km spatial and 1 km vertical grid spacing. The GOES satellite method uses spatial patterns in tropopause-relative IR brightness temperature to derive an OT likelihood. The study region covers a large part of the contiguous United States during selected active convection dates in 2017 and includes data from GOES-13/16. A large sample of OTs observed by NEXRAD and GOES-13/16 satellites are analyzed to better understand NEXRAD and IR observations of OTs, quantify agreement between the OT detection methods, and demonstrate how the 4x increase in spatial resolution from GOES-13 to GOES-16 impacts OT algorithm detection performance. The results show that for nearly time-matched scenes, with many severe storms, GOES-13 and -16 detection accuracy is quite comparable; however, some missed detections are attributed to poorer GOES-13 image resolution. It was found that GOES-13 OT regions are ~2 K warmer than GOES-16 on average, but such differences exceed 5 K for the most intense OT regions. It is found that false GOES IR-based detections are unavoidable, given that cold cloud pixels significantly colder than the tropopause from nearby or recently decayed OTs can persist within anvils for 15 minutes or more.

John W. Cooney↗

Uncertainty Determination for Aeroheating in Uranus and Saturn Probe Entries by the Monte Carlo Method

The 2013-2022 Decaedal survey for planetary exploration has identified probe missions to Uranus and Saturn as high priorities. This work endeavors to examine the uncertainty for determining aeroheating in such entry environments. Representative entry trajectories are constructed using the TRAJ software. Flowfields at selected points on the trajectories are then computed using the Data Parallel Line Relaxation (DPLR) Computational Fluid Dynamics Code. A Monte Carlo study is performed on the DPLR input parameters to determine the uncertainty in the predicted aeroheating, and correlation coefficients are examined to identify which input parameters show the most influence on the uncertainty. A review of the present best practices for input parameters (e.g. transport coefficient and vibrational relaxation time) is also conducted. It is found that the 2(sigma) - uncertainty for heating on Uranus entry is no more than 2.1%, assuming an equilibrium catalytic wall, with the uncertainty being determined primarily by diffusion and H(sub 2) recombination rate within the boundary layer. However, if the wall is assumed to be partially or non-catalytic, this uncertainty may increase to as large as 18%. The catalytic wall model can contribute over 3x change in heat flux and a 20% variation in film coefficient. Therefore, coupled material response/fluid dynamic models are recommended for this problem. It was also found that much of this variability is artificially suppressed when a constant Schmidt number approach is implemented. Because the boundary layer is reacting, it is necessary to employ self-consistent effective binary diffusion to obtain a correct thermal transport solution. For Saturn entries, the 2(sigma) - uncertainty for convective heating was less than 3.7%. The major uncertainty driver was dependent on shock temperature/velocity, changing from boundary layer thermal conductivity to diffusivity and then to shock layer ionization rate as velocity increases. While radiative heating for Uranus entry was negligible, the nominal solution for Saturn computed up to 20% radiative heating at the highest velocity examined. The radiative heating followed a non-normal distribution, with up to a 3x variation in magnitude. This uncertainty is driven by the H(sub 2) dissociation rate, as H(sub 2) that persists in the hot non-equilibrium zone contributes significantly to radiation.

Palmer, Grant↗

Femoral Head Bone Loss Following Short and Long-Duration Spaceflight

Exposure to mechanical unloading during spaceflight is known to have significant effects on the musculoskeletal system. Our ongoing studies with the mouse bone model have identified the failure of normal stem cell-based tissue regeneration, in addition to tissue degeneration, as a significant concern for long-duration spaceflight, especially in the mesenchymal and hematopoietic tissue lineages. The 30-day BionM1 and the 37-day Rodent Research 1 (RR1) missions enabled the possibility of studying these effects in long-duration microgravity experiments. We hypothesized that the inhibition of stem cell-based tissue regeneration in short-duration spaceflight would continue during long-duration spaceflight and furthermore would result in significant tissue alterations. MicroCT analysis of BionM1 femurs revealed 31% decrease in bone volume ratio, a 14% decrease in trabecular thickness, and a 20% decrease in trabecular number in the femoral head of space-flown mice. Furthermore, high-resolution MicroCT and immunohistochemical analysis of spaceflight tissues revealed a severe disruption of the epiphyseal boundary, resulting in endochondral ossification of the femoral head and perforation of articular cartilage by bone. This suggests that spaceflight in microgravity may cause rapid induction of an aging-like phenotype with signs of osteoarthritic disease in the hip joint. However, mice from RR1 exhibited significant bone loss in the femoral head but did not exhibit the severe aging and disease-like phenotype observed during BionM1.This may be due to increased physical activity in the RH hardware. Immunohistochemical analysis of the epiphyseal plate and investigation of cellular proliferation and differentiation pathways within the marrow compartment and whole bone tissue is currently being conducted to determine alterations in stem cell-based tissue regeneration between these experiments. Our results show that the observed inhibition of stem cell-based tissue regeneration persists during long-duration spaceflight. Furthermore, spaceflight femurs from BionM1 indicate onset of an accelerated aging-like phenotype with signs of osteoarthritic disease shown by disruption of the epiphyseal boundary and endochondral ossification. These effects are likely caused by a failure of stem cells to regenerate degraded tissues and may have significant implications for bone and cartilage health following extensive periods of mechanical unloading during long-duration spaceflight.

microgravity↗

Femoral Head Bone Loss Following Short and Long-Duration Spaceflight

Exposure to mechanical unloading during spaceflight is known to have significant effects on the musculoskeletal system. Our ongoing studies with the mouse bone model have identified the failure of normal stem cell-based tissue regeneration, in addition to tissue degeneration, as a significant concern for long-duration spaceflight, especially in the mesenchymal and hematopoietic tissue lineages. The 30-day BionM1 and the 37-day Rodent Research 1 (RR1) missions enabled the possibility of studying these effects in long-duration microgravity experiments. We hypothesized that the inhibition of stem cell-based tissue regeneration in short-duration spaceflight would continue during long-duration spaceflight and furthermore would result in significant tissue alterations. MicroCT analysis of BionM1 femurs revealed 31 decrease in bone volume ratio, a 14 decrease in trabecular thickness, and a 20 decrease in trabecular number in the femoral head of space-flown mice. Furthermore, high-resolution MicroCT and immunohistochemical analysis of spaceflight tissues revealed a severe disruption of the epiphyseal boundary, resulting in endochondral ossification of the femoral head and perforation of articular cartilage by bone. This suggests that spaceflight in microgravity may cause rapid induction of an aging-like phenotype with signs of osteoarthritic disease in the hip joint. However, mice from RR1 exhibited significant bone loss in the femoral head but did not exhibit the severe aging and disease-like phenotype observed during BionM1. This may be due to increased physical activity in the RH hardware. Immunohistochemical analysis of the epiphyseal plate and investigation of cellular proliferation and differentiation pathways within the marrow compartment and whole bone tissue is currently being conducted to determine alterations in stem cell-based tissue regeneration between these experiments. Our results show that the observed inhibition of stem cell-based tissue regeneration persists during long-duration spaceflight. Furthermore, spaceflight femurs from BionM1 indicate onset of an accelerated aging-like phenotype with signs of osteoarthritic disease shown by disruption of the epiphyseal boundary and endochondral ossification. These effects are likely caused by a failure of stem cells to regenerate degraded tissues and may have significant implications for bone and cartilage health following extensive periods of mechanical unloading during long-duration spaceflight.

stem cells↗

A Gravity Analysis of the Subsurface Structure of the Utopia Impact Basin

The large, shallow, circular depression in Utopia Planitia has been identified as a huge impact basin, based on both geological evidence and detailed analysis of MOLA topography. Its diameter (approximately 3000 km) is equivalent to that of the Hellas basin, as is its inferred age (early Noachian). However, there the similarity ends. Their appearance, both surficially and geophysically, are virtually polar opposites. Whereas Hellas is extremely deep with rough terrain and large slopes, high-precision MOLA measurements were required to unambiguously define the smooth, shallow, almost imperceptible bowl of the Utopia basin. Conversely, Utopia displays one of the largest (non-Tharsis-related) positive geoid anomalies on Mars, in contrast to a more subdued negative anomaly over Hellas. As these two features presumably formed roughly contemporaneously by similar mechanisms, it is reasonable to assume that they were originally quite similar, and that their differences are due largely to different paths of subsequent modification. The obvious source for these differences is in their elevations: Hellas is located in the southern highlands at a rim elevation of about 3km, whereas Utopia is in the lowlying northern plains, at an average elevation of 4 km. Thus Utopia has been in an especially gravitationally favorable position to be subjected to infilling, for example, by lava flows, sedimentation, or water. In fact, its floor was almost certainly the lowest point on the planet at one time, and it would have been the termination point for down-slope drainage from over two-thirds of Mars. Thus the nature of the material filling this basin has strong connections to the sedimentary and/or volcanic processes acting on Mars in the Noachian and Early Hesperian periods. In particular, it may be able to shed some light on amount and persistence of water on early Mars in general and in the Utopia basin in particular. In this study I will use the inferred early correspondence between Hellas and Utopia to investigate Utopia's subsurface structure.

Barnerdt, W. B.↗

Bone and Cartilage Degeneration in Mice Following Long-Duration Spaceflight: The Role of Bone Marrow Stem Cells

The detrimental effects of mechanical unloading in microgravity, including the musculo-skeletal system, are well documented. However, the effects of mechanical unloading on joint health and the interaction between bone and cartilage specifically, are less well known. Our ongoing studies with the mouse bone model have identified the failure of normal stem cell-based tissue regeneration, in addition to tissue degeneration, as a significant concern for long-duration spaceflight, especially in the mesenchymal and hematopoietic tissue lineages. Furthermore, we have identified the cell cycle arrest molecule, CDKN1ap21, as specifically up-regulated during spaceflight exposure and localized to osteoprecursors on the bone surface and chondroprogenitors in articular cartilage that are both required for normal tissue regeneration. The 30-day BionM1 and 37-day Rodent Research 1 (RR1) missions enabled the possibility of studying these effects in long-duration microgravity experiments. We hypothesized that the inhibition of stem cell-based tissue regeneration in short-duration spaceflight would continue during long-duration spaceflight resulting in significant tissue alterations and we specifically studied the hip joint (pelvis and proximal femur) to elucidate these effects. To test this hypothesis we analyzed bone and bone marrow stem cells using techniques including high-resolution Microcomputed Tomography (MicroCT), in-vivo differentiation and migration assays, and whole transcriptome expression profiling. We found that exposure to spaceflight for 30 days results in a significant decrease in bone volume fraction (-31), trabecular thickness (-14) and trabecular number (-20). Similar decrements in bone volume fraction (-27), trabecular number (-13) and trabecular thickness (-17) were found in female mice exposed to 37 days spaceflight. Furthermore, high-resolution MicroCT and immunohistochemical analysis of spaceflight tissues revealed a severe disruption of the epiphyseal boundary, resulting in endochondral ossification of the femoral head and perforation of articular cartilage by bone. This suggests that spaceflight in microgravity may cause rapid induction of an aging-like phenotype with signs of osteoarthritic disease in the hip joint. Microarray analysis also revealed that the top pathways altered during spaceflight include activation of matrix metalloproteinases, oxidative stress signaling and inflammation in both whole bone tissue and isolated bone marrow stem cells. In conclusion, the observed inhibition of stem cell-based tissue regeneration persists during long-duration spaceflight. Furthermore, spaceflight mice exhibit disruption of the epiphyseal boundary and endochondral ossification of the femoral head, and an inhibition of stem cell based tissue regeneration, which, taken together, may indicate onset of an accelerated aging phenotype with signs of osteoarthritic disease.

Cartilage↗

On the Importance of Small Ice Crystals in Tropical Anvil Cirrus

In situ measurements of ice crystal concentrations and sizes made with aircraft instrumentation over the past two decades have often indicated the presence of numerous relatively small (< 50 m diameter) crystals in cirrus clouds. Further, these measurements frequently indicate that small crystals account for a large fraction of the extinction in cirrus clouds. The fact that the instruments used to make these measurements, such as the Forward Scattering Spectrometer Probe (FSSP) and the Cloud Aerosol Spectrometer (CAS), ingest ice crystals into the sample volume through inlets has led to suspicion that the indications of numerous small ]crystals could be artifacts of large ]crystal shattering on the instrument inlets. We present new aircraft measurements in anvil cirrus sampled during the Tropical Composition, Cloud, and Climate Coupling (TC4) campaign with the 2 ] Dimensional Stereo (2D ]S) probe, which detects particles as small as 10 m. The 2D ]S has detector "arms" instead of an inlet tube. Since the 2D ]S probe surfaces are much further from the sample volume than is the case for the instruments with inlets, it is expected that 2D ]S will be less susceptible to shattering artifacts. In addition, particle inter ]arrival times are used to identify and remove shattering artifacts that occur even with the 2D ]S probe. The number of shattering artifacts identified by the 2D ]S interarrival time analysis ranges from a negligible contribution to an order of magnitude or more enhancement in apparent ice concentration over the natural ice concentration, depending on the abundance of large crystals and the natural small ]crystal concentration. The 2D ]S measurements in tropical anvil cirrus suggest that natural small ]crystal concentrations are typically one to two orders of magnitude lower than those inferred from CAS. The strong correlation between the CAS/2D ]S ratio of small ]crystal concentrations and large ]crystal concentration suggests that the discrepancy is likely caused by shattering of large crystals on the CAS inlet. We argue that past measurements with CAS in cirrus with large crystals present may contain errors due to crystal shattering, and past conclusions derived from these measurements may need to be revisited. Further, we present correlations between CAS spurious concentration and 2D ]S large ]crystal mass from spatially uniform anvil cirrus sampling periods as an approximate guide for estimating quantitative impact of large ]crystal shattering on CAS concentrations in previous datasets. We use radiative transfer calculations to demonstrate that in the maritime anvil cirrus sampled during TC4, small crystals indicated by 2D ]S contribute relatively little cloud extinction, radiative forcing, or radiative heating in the anvils, regardless of anvil age or vertical location in the clouds. While 2D ]S ice concentrations in fresh anvil cirrus may often exceed 1 cm.3, and are observed to exceed 10 cm.3 in turrets, they are typically ~0.1 cm.3 and rarely exceed 1 cm.3 (<1.4% of the time) in aged anvil cirrus. We hypothesize that isolated occurrences of higher ice concentrations in aged anvil cirrus may be caused by ice nucleation driven by either small ]scale convection or gravity waves. It appears that the numerous small crystals detrained from convective updrafts do not persist in the anvil cirrus sampled during TC ]4.

Jensen, E. J.↗

Supervised Autonomous Assembly to Create and Evolve Persistent Assets

Supervised autonomous assembly (SAA) will create a paradigm shift in the planning and design of future persistent assets (PAs), both in near zero-g environments and on planetary surfaces. SAA refers to an autonomy approach that has the benefits of autonomous assembly as well as the benefits provided by a supervisor (operator) who is available to resolve unexpected situations. SAA provides both increased design freedom as well as reduced programmatic risk. SAA enables evolution of future PAs over decades as in-space operations transition from single purpose missions to creation of PAs, such as laboratories and experimental stations which more closely resembling terrestrial laboratories that can easily adapt and evolve to new missions leveraging repeated visits to the PA. The ability to evolve enables PAs to rapidly respond to changing objectives resulting from new questions as our understanding improves. A recently initiated National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) project in the Space Technology Mission Directorate (STMD) Game Changing Development (GCD) Program called the Precision Assembled Space Structure (PASS), leverages the advantages of SAA to develop technologies that enable efficient creation and evolution of hexagonal topologies; both planar (example: fuel depots) and curved (examples: telescopes and shelters). PASS will be used to provide context for the philosophy and concepts discussed as well as the decision and selections made. PASS objectives are: a) Develop confidence in SAA and on-orbit servicing, assembly and manufacturing (OSAM) technologies by executing a test campaign that uses a path-to-flight autonomous precision assembly process directly applicable to future space telescopes. b) Test autonomous technologies including automated path planning and error recovery, to emphasize a robust approach that relies on generic robots and special purpose tools. c) Validate critical component models using a digital twin that includes the assembled primary mirror support structure and assembly process. A digital twin is a high-fidelity simulation of the asset capable of predicting the on-orbit performance. The paper concludes after identifying the critical need for a modest assembly flight experiment to validate and develop confidence in the SAA paradigm, thus accelerating adoption of the benefits described. SAA is a game changing paradigm that enhances the ability of an organization to infuse new technology through rapid evolution of PAs while leveraging OSAM technologies.

Structural Modeling↗

Flat-Spectrum Radio Sources as Likely Counterparts of Unidentified INTEGRAL Sources (Research Note)

Many sources in the fourth INTEGRAL/IBIS catalogue are still unidentified since they lack an optical counterpart. An important tool that can help in identifying and classifying these sources is the cross-correlation with radio catalogues, which are very sensitive and positionally accurate. Moreover, the radio properties of a source, such as the spectrum or morphology, could provide further insight into its nature. In particular, flat-spectrum radio sources at high Galactic latitudes are likely to be AGN, possibly associated to a blazar or to the compact core of a radio galaxy. Here we present a small sample of 6 sources extracted from the fourth INTEGRAL/IBIS catalogue that are still unidentified or unclassified, but which are very likely associated with a bright, flat-spectrum radio object. To confirm the association and to study the source X-ray spectral parameters, we performed X-ray follow-up observations with Swift/XRT of all objects. We report in this note the overall results obtained from this search and discuss the nature of each individual INTEGRAL source. We find that 5 of the 6 radio associations are also detected in X-rays; furthermore, in 3 cases they are the only counterpart found. More specifically, IGR J06073−0024 is a flat-spectrum radio quasar at z = 1.08, IGR J14488−4008 is a newly discovered radio galaxy, while IGR J18129−0649 is an AGN of a still unknown type. The nature of two sources (IGR J07225−3810 and IGR J19386−4653) is less well defined, since in both cases we find another X-ray source in the INTEGRAL error circle; nevertheless, the flat-spectrum radio source, likely to be a radio loud AGN, remains a viable and, in fact, a more convincing association in both cases. Only for the last object (IGR J11544−7618) could we not find any convincing counterpart since the radio association is not an X-ray emitter, while the only X-ray source seen in the field is a G star and therefore unlikely to produce the persistent emission seen by INTEGRAL.

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