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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 325 records · Page 18
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

A novel approach to characterize the full spectrum and radiative properties of aerosols

Organic aerosols play a significant role in the absorption and radiative budget of the atmosphere, but current modeling approaches do not adequately capture the photo-chemical and oxidative bleaching that occurs during their lifetimes. Most climate models inaccurately assume constant optical properties of these particles, therefore leading to errors in their predictions. In this study we present an approach to better parameterize the optical properties of atmospheric aerosols, including brown carbon (BrC). Using thin-film spectrometry, the full spectrum of reflectivity and emissivity was used to calculate the complex refractive index for multiple species of organic aerosols. This is in contrast to previous techniques which only probe single wavelengths. Since BrC is a complex molecular mixture, we initially focused on single species absorption using four molecular surrogates. Dye-doped polyacrylic-acid thin-films were prepared on glass slides and compared to an aerosolized collection method. Verification of the collection method will open the door to characterizing the complex refractive index of smoke and ambient aerosol.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Revisiting Multi-Material Composite Structures with Homogenized Composite Properties

Composite structures inherently develop residual stresses during their curing process. Driven predominately by mismatched thermal strains between differing materials or ply orientations, but also affected by curing process phenomena like polymer shrinkage, these residual stresses can lead to failure within composite structures. There are several methods varying in complexity that can be used to model the development of residual stresses, all of which are capable of capturing sufficient detail to understand the residual stress state at the ply level. However, explicitly modeling all plies of a layup in a composite structure can be prohibitively expensive based on the number of plies, structure size, and required element size. The computational cost can be reduced through the homogenization of the composite layup without losing much fidelity of the overall response of the structure. The homogenization process reduces the many plies of a laminate to a single lamina that reduces complexity and increases the mesh size where a single element can span multiple plies. This report focuses on verification and validation efforts for a homogenization process using a suite of finite element simulations rather than an analytic solution derived from classical laminate theory. Initial verification using representative element volumes indicated there was minimal error in the homogenization process; however, this compounded to a small, but acceptable error in strip and split ring experimental composite structures. The error does under predict the residual stress state in the strip and split ring and should be accounted for when simulating composite structures with homogenized properties.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Three-Photon Optical Pumping for Trapped Ion Quantum Computing

In this report we describe the testing of a novel scheme for state preparation of trapped ions in a quantum computing setup. This technique optimally would allow for similar precision and speed of state preparation while allowing for individual addressability of single ions in a chain using technology already available in a trapped ion experiment. As quantum computing experiments become more complicated, mid-experiment measurements will become necessary to achieve algorithms such as quantum error correction. Any mid-experiment measurement then requires the measured qubit to be re-prepared to a known quantum state. Currently this involves the protected qubits to be moved a sizeable distance away from the qubit being re-prepared which can be costly in terms of experiment length as well as introducing errors. Theoretical calculations predict that a three-photon process would allow for state preparation without qubit movement with similar efficiencies to current state preparation methods.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Erratum to: Data Fusion to Support Integrated Nuclear Detonation Detection [Slides]

The original document (LA-UR-22-29547) contained minor equation errors that approximate correct equations that couple the multi-sensor, serial system detector thresholds for a seismic Rayleigh wave detector and an acoustic energy detector. Those errors appeared on slides 62-67. This erratum associates the following slides with the erroneous slides. The numbers of the erroneous slides are marked at the upper right in small text in orange. A result of those errors over-predict the performance of the two-sensor serial network, that is, the former document provides an optimistic estimate of system performance.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2022

Adaptive Determination of the Optimal Exchange Location in Wall-Modeled Large-Eddy Simulation

Wall-modeled large-eddy simulation introduces a modeling interface (or exchange location) separating the wall-modeled layer from the rest of the domain. The current state-of-the-art is to rely on user expertise when choosing where to place this modeling interface, whether this choice is tied to the grid or not. This paper presents a postprocessing algorithm that determines the exchange location systematically. The algorithm is based on a model for the error in the predicted wall shear stress and a model for the computational cost, and then finds the exchange location that minimizes a combination of the two. Here, the algorithm is tested both a priori and a posteriori using an equilibrium wall model for the flow over a wall-mounted hump, a boundary layer in an adverse pressure gradient, and a shock/boundary-layer interaction. The algorithm produces exchange locations that mostly agree with what an experienced user would suggest, with thinner wall-modeled layers in nonequilibrium flow regions and thicker wall-modeled layers where the boundary layer is closer to equilibrium. This suggests that the algorithm should be useful in simulations of realistic and highly complex geometries.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Design, Detection, and Countermeasure of Frequency Spectrum Attack and Its Impact on Long Short-Term Memory Load Forecasting and Microgrid Energy Management

This paper introduces a frequency-domain false data injection attack called Frequency Spectrum Attack (FSA) and explores its effects on load forecasting and the energy management system (EMS) in a microgrid. The FSA analyzes time-series signals in the frequency domain to identify patterns in their frequency spectrum. It learns the distribution of dominant frequencies in a dataset of healthy signals. Subsequently, it manipulates the amplitudes of dominant frequencies within this healthy distribution, ensuring a stealthy attack against statistical analysis of the signal spectrum. We evaluated the performance of FSA on LSTM, a state-of-the-art network for load forecasting. The results show that FSA can triple the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of predictions compared to the normal case and increase it by 70% compared to noise injection attacks. Furthermore, FSA indirectly enhances battery utilization in the EMS by 45%. We then proposed a detection method that combines statistical analysis and machine-learning-based classification techniques with features. The model effectively distinguishes FSA from healthy and noisy signals, achieving an accuracy of 98.7% and an F1-score of 98.1% on a load dataset, covering healthy, FSA, and noisy load data. Finally, a countermeasure was introduced based on the statistical analysis of the frequency spectrum of healthy signals to mitigate the impact of FSA. This countermeasure successfully reduces the MAE of the attacked model from 0.135 to 0.053, validating its effectiveness in mitigating FSA.

Nazeri, Amirhossein↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evaluating the Potential and Challenges of an Uncertainty Quantification Method for Long Short–Term Memory Models for Soil Moisture Predictions

Recently, recurrent deep networks have shown promise to harness newly available satellite–sensed data for long–term soil moisture projections. However, to be useful in forecasting, deep networks must also provide uncertainty estimates. Here we evaluated Monte Carlo dropout with an input–dependent data noise term (MCD+N), an efficient uncertainty estimation framework originally developed in computer vision, for hydrologic time series predictions. MCD+N simultaneously estimates a heteroscedastic input–dependent data noise term (a trained error model attributable to observational noise) and a network weight uncertainty term (attributable to insufficiently constrained model parameters). Although MCD+N has appealing features, many heuristic approximations were employed during its derivation, and rigorous evaluations and evidence of its asserted capability to detect dissimilarity were lacking. To address this, we provided an in–depth evaluation of the scheme's potential and limitations. We showed that for reproducing soil moisture dynamics recorded by the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission, MCD+N indeed gave a good estimate of predictive error, provided that we tuned a hyperparameter and used a representative training data set. The input–dependent term responded strongly to observational noise, while the model term clearly acted as a detector for physiographic dissimilarity from the training data, behaving as intended. However, when the training and test data were characteristically different, the input–dependent term could be misled, undermining its reliability. Additionally, due to the data–driven nature of the model, data noise also influences network weight uncertainty, and therefore the two uncertainty terms are correlated. Altogether, this approach has promise, but care is needed to interpret the results.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Probing Accuracy-Speedup Tradeoff in Machine Learning Surrogates for Molecular Dynamics Simulations

The performance promise of machine learning surrogates of molecular dynamics simulations of soft materials is significant but generally comes at the cost of acquiring large training datasets to learn the complex relationships between input soft material attributes and output properties. Under the constraint of limited high-performance computing resources, optimizing the size of the training datasets becomes paramount. Using an artificial neural network based surrogate for molecular dynamics simulations of confined electrolytes, we explore the tradeoff between surrogate accuracy and computational gains. Accuracy is assessed by computing the root-mean-square errors between the surrogate predictions and the ground truth results obtained via molecular dynamics simulations. The computational performance is judged by evaluating the speedup which incorporates the training dataset creation time. Improvement in accuracy occurs with a loss of speedup, which scales as the inverse of the training dataset size. Furthermore, the link between surrogate generalizability and the accuracy-speedup tradeoff is assessed by examining the errors incurred in surrogate predictions on unseen, interpolated input variables and developing a net speedup metric to capture the associated gains.

Anions↗
DOE OSTI2023

Analysis of the rotationally-resolved infrared spectrum of CD 3 79 Br and CD 3 81 Br between 900 and 1400 cm -1

We report the infrared spectrum of CD 3 79 Br and CD 3 81 Br between 900 cm -1 and 1400 cm -1 has been analyzed at high resolution. In this region, two fundamental vibrational states, v 2 = 1 and v 5 = 1, an overtone state, v 3 = 2, and a combination state, v 3 = v 6 = 1, have been analyzed for both isotopologues. As found in other halomethane molecules, strong Coriolis resonances couple the v 2 = 1 state to the v 5 = 1 state, and similar resonances were also used to describe the coupling found between the v 5 = 1 state to the v 3 = 2 state. A new determination of the K-dependent constant A 0 was performed for each isotopologue through the use of perturbation-allowed transitions. The values for A 0 determined from the analysis are 2.6001898(26) and 2.6001905(27) for CD 3 79 Br and CD 3 81 Br, respectively. Ab initio calculations were performed to examine the efficacy of high-level theoretical calculations to accurately predict spectroscopic constants. The ab initio calculations had variable success with the largest errors associated with the prediction of the ΔB rotational constants of the interacting states

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Dynamic data-driven multiscale modeling for predicting the degradation of a 316L stainless steel nuclear cladding material

Here, we have developed a long short-term memory stacked ensemble (LSTM-SE) surrogate modeling approach that can provide rapid predictions of microstructural evolution and the resultant mechanical properties of American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) 316L series stainless steel (316LSS) fuel cladding under conditions of varying temperature and radiation dose rate. To acquire training data, we developed and implemented a kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) model to simulate precipitation kinetics of M 23 C 6 , γ', and G phases within SS316L cladding. Experimentally reported precipitation kinetics of SS316L in literature were linked to the kinetic parameters of the simulated precipitation in our KMC model. The model was then used to simulate microstructure evolution under synthetically generated treatments of varying temperature and radiation dose rate, for periods of up to 3000 hours. Changes in volume fraction, number density, and particle size of precipitates were recorded, and particle area fractions were correlated using statistical methods to develop the surrogate model. Simultaneously, the mechanical properties of the simulated microstructures were evaluated using microstructure-based finite element method (FEM) analysis to determine the elastic modulus, yield stress, ultimate tensile strength, and elongation to failure of the aged microstructures. Using this approach, our surrogate model can predict precipitation behavior within 0.25% volume fraction and mechanical properties within 6% relative error from the values predicted by the KMC and FEM models using 50 training simulations as input. The trained recurrent neural network-based model can return estimations of precipitation kinetics and mechanical properties ~1000 times faster than the physics-based codes. This work demonstrates, as a proof of concept, that reactor material service lifetimes under variable service conditions can be predicted for a statistics-based model from a practicably obtainable dataset.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Dynamic Data-Driven Multiscale Modeling for Predicting Microstructure and Mechanical Properties of 316L Stainless Steel

We have developed a long short-term memory stacked ensemble (LSTM-SE) surrogate modeling approach that can provide rapid predictions of microstructural evolution and the resultant mechanical properties of American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) 316L series stainless steel (316LSS) fuel cladding under conditions of varying temperature and radiation dose rate. To acquire training data, we developed and implemented a kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) model to simulate precipitation kinetics of M 23 C 6 , γ', and G phases within SS316L cladding. Experimentally reported precipitation kinetics of SS316L in literature were linked to the kinetic parameters of the simulated precipitation in our KMC model. The model was then used to simulate microstructure evolution under synthetically generated treatments of varying temperature and radiation dose rate, for periods of up to 3000 hours. Changes in volume fraction, number density, and particle size of precipitates were recorded, and particle area fractions were correlated using statistical methods to develop the surrogate model. Simultaneously, the mechanical properties of the simulated microstructures were evaluated using microstructure-based finite element method (FEM) analysis to determine the elastic modulus, yield stress, ultimate tensile strength, and elongation to failure of the aged microstructures. Using this approach, our surrogate model can predict precipitation behavior within 0.25% volume fraction and mechanical properties within 6% relative error from the values predicted by the KMC and FEM models using 50 training simulations as input. The trained recurrent neural network-based model can return estimations of precipitation kinetics and mechanical properties ~1000 times faster than the physics-based codes. This work demonstrates, as a proof of concept, that reactor material service lifetimes under variable service conditions can be predicted for a statistics-based model from a practicably obtainable dataset.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Ice storage model-predictive control in an office building with PV: scenario, error and sensitivity analysis

Thermal energy storage (TES) can enable more building-sited renewable electricity generation and lower utility bill costs for buildings owners and occupants, especially when there are high demand and variable time-of-use (TOU) charges. A model predictive control (MPC) strategy can offer additional savings over a schedule-based control with added complexity and reliance on forecasts. Here, this study examines savings for medium office buildings with chiller plants in three locations with building-installed solar photovoltaics (PV) to understand the impact of MPC. Control setpoints are fixed by a schedule-based control or optimized by nonlinear MPC. These control setpoints are actuated within EnergyPlus building models to simulate the utility cost of the chiller plant. NLP solutions can be unstable or unrealistic, but our results show that by regularizing the NLP, the solutions can be reasonably followed by the building model. MPC models make simplifications that lead to errors once the controller is participating in and changing the operation of the building. These errors average 9 % across the cases, showing that the most important parts of the system are represented. The no-thermal load costs are computed to show that the optimization can in some cases achieve both the minimum TOU and minimum monthly demand costs by demand management while reducing TOU energy costs by energy arbitrage. The MPC saves 35–66 % in the annual chiller plant operating costs, which is an additional savings above the schedule by 1–33 %. PV and TES are complementary and mostly independent, but a load with PV often results in better performance for the schedule. Our case study and sensitivity analysis show the importance of modeling and optimization for complex rates, but also the circumstances wherein a simpler strategy achieves the same performance with less potential for error.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

The effects of bias, drift, and trends in calculating anomalies for evaluating skill of seasonal-to-decadal initialized climate predictions

In initialized seasonal to decadal (S2D) predictions, model hindcasts rapidly drift away from the initial observed state and converge toward a preferred state characterized by systematic error, or bias. Bias and drift are among the greatest challenges facing initialized prediction today. Differences in trends between initial states and drifted states, combined with bias and drift, introduce complexities in calculating anomalies to assess skill of initialized predictions. We examine several methods of calculating anomalies using the Decadal Prediction Large Ensemble (DPLE) using the Community Earth System Model (CESM) initialized hindcasts and focus on Pacific and Atlantic SSTs to illustrate issues with anomaly calculations. Three methods of computing anomalies, one as differences from a long term model climatology, another as bias-adjusted differences from the previous 15 year average from observations, and a third as differences from the previous 15 year average from the model, are contrasted and each is shown to have limitations. For the first, trends in bias and drift introduce higher skill estimates earlier and later in the hindcast period due to the trends that contribute to skill. For the second, higher skill can be introduced in situations where low frequency variability in the observations is large compared to the hindcasts on timescales greater than 15 years, while lower skill can result if the predicted signal is small and the bias-correction itself produces a transition of SST anomalies to the opposite sign of those that are observed. The third method has somewhat lower skill compared to each of the others, but has less difficulties with not only the long term trends in the model climatology, but also with the unrealistic situational skill from using observations as a reference. However, the first 15 years of the hindcast period cannot be evaluated due to having to wait to accumulate the previous 15 year model climatology before the method can be applied. Here, the IPO transition in the 2014–2016 time frame from negative to positive (predicted by Meehl et al. in in Nat Commun, 10.1038/NCOMMS11718, 2016) did indeed verify using all three methods, though each provides somewhat different skill values as a result of the respective limitations. There is no clear best method, as all are roughly comparable, and each has its own set of limitations and caveats. However, all three methods show generally higher overall skill in the AMO region compared to the IPO region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Enhanced accuracy through ensembling of randomly initialized auto-regressive models for dynamical systems

Computational mechanics simulations using traditional finite element methods (FEM) require prohibitively expensive computational resources for real-time engineering applications, design optimization, and digital twin implementations. While machine learning (ML) surrogate models offer significant computational speedups, autoregressive ML models for time-dependent mechanical systems suffer from error accumulation that compromises long-term prediction reliability - a critical concern for engineering applications where accuracy over extended time horizons is essential for safety and performance assessments. Here, we propose a deep ensemble framework specifically designed to address this challenge in computational mechanics applications, where multiple ML surrogate models with random weight initializations are trained in parallel and their predictions aggregated during inference. This approach leverages statistical diversity to maximize information gain from a fixed set of training data and to mitigate error propagation, while maintaining the computational efficiency that makes ML surrogates attractive for engineering practice. We validate the framework on three representative problems spanning critical areas of computational mechanics: stress field evolution in heterogeneous microstructures under complex loading (relevant to advanced materials design and composite analysis), planetary-scale shallow water dynamics (applicable to environmental and geotechnical engineering), and Gray-Scott reaction-diffusion systems (relevant to mass transport and chemical process engineering). Across all test cases, the ensemble approach demonstrates consistent error reduction of 15-33% compared to individual models. The codes for this work are available on GitHub (https://github.com/Graham-Brady-Research-Group/AutoregressiveEnsemble_SpatioTemporal_Evolution).

autoregressive prediction↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quantifying wildfire drivers and predictability in boreal peatlands using a two-step error-correcting machine learning framework in TeFire v1.0

Abstract. Wildfires are becoming an increasing challenge to the sustainability of boreal peatland (BP) ecosystems and can alter the stability of boreal carbon storage. However, predicting the occurrence of rare and extreme BP fires proves to be challenging, and gaining a quantitative understanding of the factors, both natural and anthropogenic, inducing BP fires remains elusive. Here, we quantified the predictability of BP fires and their primary controlling factors from 1997 to 2015 using a two-step correcting machine learning (ML) framework that combines multiple ML classifiers, regression models, and an error-correcting technique. We found that (1) the adopted oversampling algorithm effectively addressed the unbalanced data and improved the recall rate by 26.88 %–48.62 % when using multiple datasets, and the error-correcting technique tackled the overestimation of fire sizes during fire seasons; (2) nonparametric models outperformed parametric models in predicting fire occurrences, and the random forest machine learning model performed the best, with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve ranging from 0.83 to 0.93 across multiple fire datasets; and (3) four sets of factor-control simulations consistently indicated the dominant role of temperature, air dryness, and climate extreme (i.e., frost) for boreal peatland fires, overriding the effects of precipitation, wind speed, and human activities. Our findings demonstrate the efficiency and accuracy of ML techniques in predicting rare and extreme fire events and disentangle the primary factors determining BP fires, which are critical for predicting future fire risks under climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Hydro-chemo-mechanical phase field formulation for corrosion induced cracking in reinforced concrete

Steel corrosion induced cracking in reinforced concrete structures is often caused by volumetric straining at the steel-concrete interface. This volumetric strain is mainly controlled by the rate of generation of corrosion product, which depends on the diffusion of Cl{sup −} and dissolved O{sub 2} as well as the chemical reaction at the steel-concrete interface. While many numerical modeling techniques have been proposed to tackle this complex phenomenon, most have been limited to using staggered solution schemes, where the diffusion, chemical reaction, mechanical strain, and crack fields are solved for separately. Unfortunately, such approaches introduce numerical errors that can lead to unrealistic predictions. Therefore, a coupled solution, is needed to remove the formulation induced errors and understand this complex phenomenon. To provide a unifying solution framework for corrosion induced cracking in reinforced concrete, a phase field formulation is presented and implemented with FEM algorithms. The governing equations are derived from the system's free energy and Fick's law of diffusion. The proposed formulation was first validated in 1D by comparing the modeling results with the semi-analytical solution approximated via Laurent series to avoid singularities in the complex domain. 2D plane strain solutions to the embedded rebar undergoing corrosion induced cracking with pre-cracks are also presented and compared with the approximated solutions from linear elastic fracture mechanics theory (LEFM). The modeling of crack propagation enabled by the proposed formulation is also presented along with parametric studies to reveal the roles of the fracture toughness and permeability of the concrete on the corrosion induced cracking. A case study was also conducted on H-pile steel with concrete jackets to demonstrate the feasibility of modeling corrosion induced fracture in reinforced concrete structures with complex steel-concrete interfaces.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Introduction, Investigation, and Experimental Validation of a Novel Passive Neutron Spectrometer

Unfolding neutron energy spectra are instrumental for determining personal health effects and calculating dose received. This area of study is heavily researched, and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) is investigating a passive neutron spectrometer for the purpose of acquiring the information needed to determine personnel dose in the event of a criticality accident. A part of this investigation is presented in this article through the examination of four experimental detector responses (DRs). These four DRs were acquired in the presence of 252 Cf, AmBe, GODIVA, and National Ignition Facility (NIF) neutron sources. An algorithm developed at LLNL was used to unfold the neutron fluence from each of the four DRs, and subsequently, fluence-to-dose conversion factors provided by the American National Standards Institute were used to calculate dose. Additionally, a multistep unfolding process was developed and employed to calculate the effects of both direct (from the source) and indirect (from room return) neutrons. The average error when unfolding the direct DR was less than 8%. The dose from 252 Cf was predicted with only 8% error. The multistep approach allowed for the identification of the low-energy neutrons in the 252 Cf, AmBe, and NIF DRs.

Nuclear Criticality Safety Program (NCSP)↗