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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 325 records · Page 18
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1990

Modelling default and likelihood reasoning as probabilistic reasoning

A probabilistic analysis of plausible reasoning about defaults and about likelihood is presented. Likely and by default are in fact treated as duals in the same sense as possibility and necessity. To model these four forms probabilistically, a qualitative default probabilistic (QDP) logic and its quantitative counterpart DP are derived that allow qualitative and corresponding quantitative reasoning. Consistency and consequent results for subsets of the logics are given that require at most a quadratic number of satisfiability tests in the underlying propositional logic. The quantitative logic shows how to track the propagation error inherent in these reasoning forms. The methodology and sound framework of the system highlights their approximate nature, the dualities, and the need for complementary reasoning about relevance.

Buntine, Wray↗
NASA NTRS1990

Modelling default and likelihood reasoning as probabilistic

A probabilistic analysis of plausible reasoning about defaults and about likelihood is presented. 'Likely' and 'by default' are in fact treated as duals in the same sense as 'possibility' and 'necessity'. To model these four forms probabilistically, a logic QDP and its quantitative counterpart DP are derived that allow qualitative and corresponding quantitative reasoning. Consistency and consequence results for subsets of the logics are given that require at most a quadratic number of satisfiability tests in the underlying propositional logic. The quantitative logic shows how to track the propagation error inherent in these reasoning forms. The methodology and sound framework of the system highlights their approximate nature, the dualities, and the need for complementary reasoning about relevance.

Buntine, Wray↗
NASA NTRS1991

Composite load spectra for select space propulsion structural components

The work performed to develop composite load spectra (CLS) for the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) using probabilistic methods. The three methods were implemented to be the engine system influence model. RASCAL was chosen to be the principal method as most component load models were implemented with the method. Validation of RASCAL was performed. High accuracy comparable to the Monte Carlo method can be obtained if a large enough bin size is used. Generic probabilistic models were developed and implemented for load calculations using the probabilistic methods discussed above. Each engine mission, either a real fighter or a test, has three mission phases: the engine start transient phase, the steady state phase, and the engine cut off transient phase. Power level and engine operating inlet conditions change during a mission. The load calculation module provides the steady-state and quasi-steady state calculation procedures with duty-cycle-data option. The quasi-steady state procedure is for engine transient phase calculations. In addition, a few generic probabilistic load models were also developed for specific conditions. These include the fixed transient spike model, the poison arrival transient spike model, and the rare event model. These generic probabilistic load models provide sufficient latitude for simulating loads with specific conditions. For SSME components, turbine blades, transfer ducts, LOX post, and the high pressure oxidizer turbopump (HPOTP) discharge duct were selected for application of the CLS program. They include static pressure loads and dynamic pressure loads for all four components, centrifugal force for the turbine blade, temperatures of thermal loads for all four components, and structural vibration loads for the ducts and LOX posts.

Newell, J. F.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Fatty acid foams for nonselective physical removal of microplastics from aqueous solutions

Microplastics (MPs) are pervasive environmental contaminants whose removal from water remains a major challenge due to their small size, chemical diversity, and dynamic surface properties arising from environmental aging/weathering. Here, we present a concept of foam-based separation method that physically traps MPs in the foam phase using microtubular assemblies of 12-hydroxystearic acid. These foams are stabilized by anisotropic fatty acid microtubules formed in the presence of ethanolamine, which jam within the foam channels and suppress fluid drainage thereby enhancing MP retention and foam stability. MPs of different sizes, polymer compositions (including polystyrene, polypropylene, polyethylene terephthalate, and polytetrafluoroethylene), and weathered states were retained in the foam phase without requiring chemical modification or relying on chemical interactions between the fatty acid and MPs. Thermally induced transition of the fatty acid microtubules into nanomicelles above the characteristic phase transition temperature (∼35 °C) enables controlled foam collapse and recovery of trapped MPs. The cumulative removal efficiency can exceed 85% through multiple foaming cycles, matching predictions from a probabilistic retention model. This work shows that foams can provide a simple platform to trap MPs, thus providing a new physical-removal strategy that does not rely on the particles’ chemistry.

Guillot, Kennedy A. [Louisiana State Univ., Baton ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Cyber‐Resilient Distributed Energy Resource Control Algorithms for Smart Distribution Grids

ABSTRACT This paper focuses on the development of cyber‐resilient gradient‐based optimisation algorithms and theoretical proof for grid‐interactive distributed energy resource (DER) control to enable two grid services of virtual power plants (VPPs) dispatch and grid voltage regulation, considering the communication and security impacts. Firstly, the combined DER dispatch and voltage regulation as a real‐time gradient‐based optimisation problem is recapped. Thereafter, we consider a probabilistic traffic model to characterise packet delays and loss in a communication network, and study how the delays enter the process of information exchange among the grid measurement units, local DER controllers and the grid control centre that execute this control algorithm in a coordinated manner. Then, a strategy combining delay thresholds and message update rules is proposed to immunity the asynchrony resulting from the communications traffic and it avoids possible numerical instabilities and sensitivities of the power tracking and voltage regulation capabilities, resulting as cyber‐resilient DER control algorithms. Additionally, their convergence is theoretically proved. Effectiveness of proposed cyber‐resilient algorithms has been validated on the IEEE 37‐bus system in terms of convergence, VPP tracking and voltage regulation performance for smart distribution systems with high penetration of DERs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Radioisotope Identification with List-Mode Gamma-Ray Data

This work explores the potential of utilizing temporal data from gamma-ray detectors, known as list-mode data, to enhance radioisotope identification. Traditional identification methods, which rely on full gamma-ray spectrum analysis, often require long dwell times and struggle with spectra containing similarly spaced spectral peaks. We hypothesize that by leveraging the probabilistic nature of nuclear decay and the time-encoded information from decay sequences and interactions with surrounding materials, we can improve classification accuracy over static spectral analysis. This research examines the temporal content of list-mode data through exploratory data analysis via correlation discovery and qualitative distribution analysis. Additionally, we propose a probabilistic classification model that can utilize spectral data, temporal data, or both to determine if the incorporation of temporal information improves radioisotope identification. Our findings suggest that the temporal information present in list-mode gamma-ray data has merit and should be further investigated to develop more robust and optimal methods for utilizing this temporal information in applications requiring radioisotope identification.

List-mode data↗
DOE OSTI2025

Probabilistic Resilience-Oriented Assessment Approach for Transmission Networks Under Wildfires

The rising threat of wildfires poses significant challenges to power transmission networks, particularly in areas prone to such disasters. Traditional approaches for wildfire risk assessment neglect some potential wildfire scenarios. Here, this paper introduces a probabilistic resilience-oriented assessment approach for power transmission networks to address this gap. Initially, a probabilistic wildfire model is developed to capture uncertainties in ignition, intensity, and fire spread. Next, a spatiotemporal fragility model is constructed to assess the impact of wildfires on transmission corridors, incorporating Thermal Aging (TA) and Dynamic Thermal Rate (DTR) change. Finally, a comprehensive resilience metric is defined to evaluate system performance, leveraging the fragility model to determine component and system-level resilience. The approach employs a combinatorial enumeration method to generate potential wildfire scenarios, enhanced by an impact-increment-based state enumeration (IISE) method for computational efficiency. The proposed method provides critical insights for identifying system vulnerabilities and developing robust strategies to protect transmission networks from wildfires. The efficacy of this approach is validated through extensive scenarios of the RTS-GMLC system across Southern California, Nevada and Arizona.

Vahedi, Soroush [Univ. of Connecticut, Storrs, CT ↗
DOE OSTI2025

flat10MIP: an emissions-driven experiment to diagnose the climate response to positive, zero and negative CO2 emissions

Abstract. The proportionality between global mean temperature and cumulative emissions of CO2 predicted in Earth system models (ESMs) is the foundation of carbon budgeting frameworks. Deviations from this behavior could impact estimates of required net-zero timings and negative emissions requirements to meet the Paris Agreement climate targets. However, existing ESM diagnostic experiments do not allow for direct estimation of these deviations as a function of defined emissions pathways. Here, we perform a set of climate model diagnostic experiments for the assessment of transient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions (TCRE), the Zero Emissions Commitment (ZEC), and climate reversibility metrics in an emissions-driven framework. The emissions-driven experiments provide consistent independent variables simplifying simulation, analysis and interpretation, with emissions rates more comparable to recent levels than existing protocols using model-specific compatible emissions from the CMIP DECK 1pctCO2 experiment, where emissions rates tend to increase during the experiment, such that at the time of CO2 doubling in year 70, emissions are much greater than present-day values. A base experiment, “esm-flat10”, has constant emissions of CO2 of 10 GtC per year (near-present-day values), and initial results show that the TCRE estimated in this experiment is about 0.1 K less than that obtained using 1pctCO2. A subset of ESMs exhibit land carbon sinks that saturate during this experiment. A branch experiment, esm-flat10-zec, illustrates that both positive and negative ZEC effects are less pronounced under esm-flat10 than under 1pctCO2 – the magnitude of ZEC50 in ESMs is, on average, reduced by 30 % compared with 1pctCO2 branch experiments. A final experiment, esm-flat10-cdr, assesses climate reversibility under negative emissions, where we find that peak warming may occur before or after net zero and that the asymmetry in temperature at a given level of cumulative emissions between the positive and negative emissions phases is well described by ZEC in most models. Further, we find that existing probabilistic simple climate model (SCM) ensembles tend to overestimate temperature reversibility compared with ESMs, highlighting the need for additional constraints. We propose a set of climate diagnostic indicators to quantify various aspects of climate reversibility. These experiments were suggested as potential candidates in CMIP7 and have since been adopted as “fast track” simulations.

Sanderson, Benjamin M↗
DOE OSTI2026

The Maximal Entanglement Limit in Statistical and High-energy Physics

These lectures advocate the idea that quantum entanglement provides a unifying foundation for both statistical physics and high-energy interactions. I argue that, at sufficiently long times or high energies, most quantum systems approach a Maximal Entanglement Limit (MEL) in which phases of quantum states become unobservable, reduced density matrices acquire a thermal form, and probabilistic descriptions emerge without invoking ergodicity or classical randomness. Within this framework, the emergence of probabilistic parton model, thermalization in the break-up of confining strings and in high-energy collisions, and the universal small-x behavior of structure functions arise as direct consequences of entanglement and geometry of high-dimensional Hilbert space.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS1981

Geothermal probabilistic cost study

A tool is presented to quantify the risks of geothermal projects, the Geothermal Probabilistic Cost Model (GPCM). The GPCM model was used to evaluate a geothermal reservoir for a binary-cycle electric plant at Heber, California. Three institutional aspects of the geothermal risk which can shift the risk among different agents was analyzed. The leasing of geothermal land, contracting between the producer and the user of the geothermal heat, and insurance against faulty performance were examined.

Orren, L. H.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Error analysis for pulsed maneuvers of a dual-spin spacecraft

The Galileo is a dual-spin interplanetary spacecraft which is scheduled for launch toward Jupiter in October of 1989. The spacecraft has twelve thrusters, located on the rotor, which can be operated in continuous or pulsed modes. In this paper probabilistic error models are presented for the pulsed maneuvers which are used to change the spacecraft's velocity. These models take into account all error sources which might affect the maneuver accuracies, such as wobble, nutation, plume impingement, thrust level variation and misalignment, gyro drift, burn timing errors and mass property uncertainties. The analytic models are sufficiently general so that they may be applied to all spin and dual-spin stabilized spacecraft. When these models are applied to the case of the Galileo spacecraft, the numerical results demonstrate that the spacecraft can achieve the maneuver accuracies required in order to successfully reach Jupiter and perform its scientific mission.

Longuski, James M.↗
NASA NTRS1993

A decision-theoretic approach to the display of information for time-critical decisions: The Vista project

We describe a collaborative research and development effort between the Palo Alto Laboratory of the Rockwell Science Center, Rockwell Space Operations Company, and the Propulsion Systems Section of NASA JSC to design computational tools that can manage the complexity of information displayed to human operators in high-stakes, time-critical decision contexts. We shall review an application from NASA Mission Control and describe how we integrated a probabilistic diagnostic model and a time-dependent utility model, with techniques for managing the complexity of computer displays. Then, we shall describe the behavior of VPROP, a system constructed to demonstrate promising display-management techniques. Finally, we shall describe our current research directions on the Vista 2 follow-on project.

Horvitz, Eric↗
NASA NTRS1994

Estimating Lives Of Space Shuttle Parts

SSPOC (Space Shuttle Probabilistic Optimization Code) computer program, implements probabilistic mathematical model, accepts defined distributions of parameters controlling life of Space Shuttle main engine. Used to perform tradeoff studies to optimize between service life and acceptable level of risk, with greater accuracy. Also includes probability of removal and failure of parts, along with number of surviving parts for each interval of inspections. Written in FORTRAN 77, and user interface written in PASCAL(R).

Watkins, Tommie, Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Probabilistic risk assessment of the Space Shuttle. Phase 3: A study of the potential of losing the vehicle during nominal operation, volume 1

This document is the Executive Summary of a technical report on a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of the Space Shuttle vehicle performed under the sponsorship of the Office of Space Flight of the US National Aeronautics and Space Administration. It briefly summarizes the methodology and results of the Shuttle PRA. The primary objective of this project was to support management and engineering decision-making with respect to the Shuttle program by producing (1) a quantitative probabilistic risk model of the Space Shuttle during flight, (2) a quantitative assessment of in-flight safety risk, (3) an identification and prioritization of the design and operations that principally contribute to in-flight safety risk, and (4) a mechanism for risk-based evaluation proposed modifications to the Shuttle System. Secondary objectives were to provide a vehicle for introducing and transferring PRA technology to the NASA community, and to demonstrate the value of PRA by applying it beneficially to a real program of great international importance.

Fragola, Joseph R.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Software risk estimation and management techniques at JPL

In this talk we will discuss how uncertainty has been incorporated into the JPL software model, probabilistic-based estimates, and how risk is addressed, how cost risk is currently being explored via a variety of approaches, from traditional risk lists, to detailed WBS-based risk estimates to the Defect Detection and Prevention (DDP) tool.

software risk↗
NASA NTRS2008

Probabilistic Multi-Factor Interaction Model for Complex Material Behavior

The Multi-Factor Interaction Model (MFIM) is used to evaluate the divot weight (foam weight ejected) from the launch external tanks. The multi-factor has sufficient degrees of freedom to evaluate a large number of factors that may contribute to the divot ejection. It also accommodates all interactions by its product form. Each factor has an exponent that satisfies only two points, the initial and final points. The exponent describes a monotonic path from the initial condition to the final. The exponent values are selected so that the described path makes sense in the absence of experimental data. In the present investigation the data used was obtained by testing simulated specimens in launching conditions. Results show that the MFIM is an effective method of describing the divot weight ejected under the conditions investigated.

Chamis, Christos C.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Figures of Merit for Control Verification

This paper proposes a methodology for evaluating a controller's ability to satisfy a set of closed-loop specifications when the plant has an arbitrary functional dependency on uncertain parameters. Control verification metrics applicable to deterministic and probabilistic uncertainty models are proposed. These metrics, which result from sizing the largest uncertainty set of a given class for which the specifications are satisfied, enable systematic assessment of competing control alternatives regardless of the methods used to derive them. A particularly attractive feature of the tools derived is that their efficiency and accuracy do not depend on the robustness of the controller. This is in sharp contrast to Monte Carlo based methods where the number of simulations required to accurately approximate the failure probability grows exponentially with its closeness to zero. This framework allows for the integration of complex, high-fidelity simulations of the integrated system and only requires standard optimization algorithms for its implementation.

Crespo, Luis G.↗