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At least 325 records · Page 18

Investigating seasonal ENSO forecast amplitude calibration for GEOS-S2S-2

The GEOS-S2S-2 is a global coupled model and assimilation system, encompassing many aspects of the Earth climate system. This project looked at seasonal (nine-month) ensemble forecasts, over the period from 1982 through the present. We explored and validated a forecast amplitude correction technique used by the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), of which GEOS is a member, for Niño3.4 sea-surface temperature (SST) anomaly predictions. The method relies on deriving a set of correction factors based on the standard deviations of hindcast and observed SST anomalies. This algorithm was implemented at the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) and applied to the GEOS-S2S-2 Niño 3.4 hindcasts. In general, the correction reduced the forecast amplitude. This improved the quality of the forecasts when measured by the root mean square error (RMSE) of the ensemble mean forecast. RMSE decreased for most initialization months and forecast leads. The correction had a larger impact on seasons with strong El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events than neutral seasons. The effects of the correction on the ensemble characteristics were also examined, and a variation of the algorithm was proposed that preserves the ensemble spread. The outcome of this project is a tool that can be used to calibrate GEOS-S2S-2 ENSO forecasts and potentially improve the precision of multi-model El Niño outlooks.

ENSO↗

A Mixed Integer Linear Program for Airport Departure Scheduling

Aircraft departing from an airport are subject to numerous constraints while scheduling departure times. These constraints include wake-separation constraints for successive departures, miles-in-trail separation for aircraft bound for the same departure fixes, and time-window or prioritization constraints for individual flights. Besides these, emissions as well as increased fuel consumption due to inefficient scheduling need to be included. Addressing all the above constraints in a single framework while allowing for resequencing of the aircraft using runway queues is critical to the implementation of the Next Generation Air Transport System (NextGen) concepts. Prior work on airport departure scheduling has addressed some of the above. However, existing methods use pre-determined runway queues, and schedule aircraft from these departure queues. The source of such pre-determined queues is not explicit, and could potentially be a subjective controller input. Determining runway queues and scheduling within the same framework would potentially result in better scheduling. This paper presents a mixed integer linear program (MILP) for the departure-scheduling problem. The program takes as input the incoming sequence of aircraft for departure from a runway, along with their earliest departure times and an optional prioritization scheme based on time-window of departure for each aircraft. The program then assigns these aircraft to the available departure queues and schedules departure times, explicitly considering wake separation and departure fix restrictions to minimize total delay for all aircraft. The approach is generalized and can be used in a variety of situations, and allows for aircraft prioritization based on operational as well as environmental considerations. We present the MILP in the paper, along with benefits over the first-come-first-serve (FCFS) scheme for numerous randomized problems based on real-world settings. The MILP results in substantially reduced delays as compared to FCFS, and the magnitude of the savings depends on the queue and departure fix structure. The MILP assumes deterministic aircraft arrival times at the runway queues. However, due to taxi time uncertainty, aircraft might arrive either earlier or later than these deterministic times. Thus, to incorporate this uncertainty, we present a method for using the MILP with "overlap discounted rolling planning horizon". The approach is based on valuing near-term decision results more than future ones. We develop a model of taxitime uncertainty based on real-world data, and then compare the baseline FCFS delays with delays using the above MILP in a simple rolling-horizon method and in the overlap discounted scheme.

Gupta, Gautam↗

Integrated System-Level Optimization for Concurrent Engineering With Parametric Subsystem Modeling

The introduction of concurrent design practices to the aerospace industry has greatly increased the productivity of engineers and teams during design sessions as demonstrated by JPL's Team X. Simultaneously, advances in computing power have given rise to a host of potent numerical optimization methods capable of solving complex multidisciplinary optimization problems containing hundreds of variables, constraints, and governing equations. Unfortunately, such methods are tedious to set up and require significant amounts of time and processor power to execute, thus making them unsuitable for rapid concurrent engineering use. This paper proposes a framework for Integration of System-Level Optimization with Concurrent Engineering (ISLOCE). It uses parametric neural-network approximations of the subsystem models. These approximations are then linked to a system-level optimizer that is capable of reaching a solution quickly due to the reduced complexity of the approximations. The integration structure is described in detail and applied to the multiobjective design of a simplified Space Shuttle external fuel tank model. Further, a comparison is made between the new framework and traditional concurrent engineering (without system optimization) through an experimental trial with two groups of engineers. Each method is evaluated in terms of optimizer accuracy, time to solution, and ease of use. The results suggest that system-level optimization, running as a background process during integrated concurrent engineering sessions, is potentially advantageous as long as it is judiciously implemented.

Schuman, Todd↗

The Effectiveness of TAG or Guard-Gates in SET Suppression Using Delay and Dual-Rail Configurations at 0.35 microns

Design options for decreasing the susceptibility of integrated circuits to Single Event Upset (SEU) fall into two categories: (1) increasing the critical charge to cause an upset at a particular node, and (2) employing redundancy to mask or correct errors. With decreasing device sizes on an Integrated Circuit (IC), the amount of charge required to represent a logic state has steadily reduced. Critical charge methods such as increasing drive strength or increasing the time required to change state as in capacitive or resistive hardening or delay based approaches extract a steadily increasing penalty as a percentage of device resources and performance. Dual redundancy is commonly assumed only to provide error detection with Triple Modular Redundancy (TMR) required for correction, but less well known methods employ dual redundancy to achieve full error correction by voting two inputs with a prior state to resolve ambiguity. This requires special circuits such as the Whitaker latch [1], or the guard-gate [2] which some of us have called a Transition AND Gate (TAG) [3]. A 2-input guard gate is shown in Figure 1. It is similar to a Muller Completion Element [4] and relies on capacitance at node "out" to retain the prior state when inputs disagree, while eliminating any output buffer which would be susceptible to radiation strikes. This paper experimentally compares delay based and dual rail flip-flop designs wherein both types of circuits employ guard-gates to optimize layout and performance, and draws conclusions about design criteria and suitability of each option. In both cases a design goal is protection against Single Event Transients (SET) in combinational logic as well as SEU in the storage elements. For the delay based design, it is also a goal to allow asynchronous clear or preset inputs on the storage elements, which are often not available in radiation tolerant designs.

Shuler, Robert L.↗

Understanding Isomeric Effects on Properties of Aviation Fuels via a Group Contribution Method: Preprint

The molecular composition of aviation fuels, including conventional and sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs), significantly influences their performance, safety, and environmental impact. This study examines the effect of isomeric variation for compounds with the same carbon number and chemical family on key fuel properties, focusing on compounds commonly found in conventional jet fuels and SAFs. A group contribution method (GCM) is employed to predict thermophysical and combustion properties, providing an efficient analytical approach to evaluate the contributions of individual compounds to overall fuel mixture behavior. As part of this work, we introduce FuelLib, an open-source Python tool built around the GCM, to calculate individual compound and fuel mixture properties using various mixing rules. Our work evaluates whether the GCM can capture isomeric effects, that are often overlooked in traditional fuel property estimation. This is particularly important for SAFs, which often are composed of a more limited set of compound classes than conventional fuels, making isomeric differences more critical. Two-dimensional gas chromatography (GCxGC) data, which can be obtained from small fuel samples, provides weight percentages of compounds grouped by chemical family and carbon number rather than detailed information about individual compounds. As a result, assumptions must be made when decomposing GCxGC data into functional groups for GCM applications. Using GCxGC data, we show that the FuelLib tool can be used to predict the fuel properties of conventional jet fuels, with validation against experimental data. The provided tool enables researchers to predict fuel properties of candidate fuels and supports the design of new SAFs at both the component and mixture levels. This capability provides a foundation for studying fuel and combustion properties during SAF development, reducing reliance on costly experimental methods and advancing progress toward certification of new SAFs.The molecular composition of aviation fuels, including conventional and sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs), significantly influences their performance, safety, and environmental impact. This study examines the effect of isomeric variation for compounds with the same carbon number and chemical family on key fuel properties, focusing on compounds commonly found in conventional jet fuels and SAFs. A group contribution method (GCM) is employed to predict thermophysical and combustion properties, providing an efficient analytical approach to evaluate the contributions of individual compounds to overall fuel mixture behavior. As part of this work, we introduce FuelLib, an open-source Python tool built around the GCM, to calculate individual compound and fuel mixture properties using various mixing rules. Our work evaluates whether the GCM can capture isomeric effects, that are often overlooked in traditional fuel property estimation. This is particularly important for SAFs, which often are composed of a more limited set of compound classes than conventional fuels, making isomeric differences more critical. Two-dimensional gas chromatography (GCxGC) data, which can be obtained from small fuel samples, provides weight percentages of compounds grouped by chemical family and carbon number rather than detailed information about individual compounds. As a result, assumptions must be made when decomposing GCxGC data into functional groups for GCM applications. Using GCxGC data, we show that the FuelLib tool can be used to predict the fuel properties of conventional jet fuels, with validation against experimental data. The provided tool enables researchers to predict fuel properties of candidate fuels and supports the design of new SAFs at both the component and mixture levels. This capability provides a foundation for studying fuel and combustion properties during SAF development, reducing reliance on costly experimental methods and advancing progress toward certification of new SAFs.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

A Semi-Supervised Learning Method for the Identification of Bad Exposures in Large Imaging Surveys

As the data volume of astronomical imaging surveys rapidly increases, traditional methods for image anomaly detection, such as visual inspection by human experts, are becoming impractical. We introduce a machine-learning-based approach to detect poor-quality exposures in large imaging surveys, with a focus on the DECam Legacy Survey (DECaLS) in regions of low extinction (i.e., E ( B − V ) < 0.04 ). Our semi-supervised pipeline integrates a vision transformer (ViT), trained via self-supervised learning (SSL), with a k-Nearest Neighbor (kNN) classifier. We train and validate our pipeline using a small set of labeled exposures observed by surveys with the Dark Energy Camera (DECam). A clustering-space analysis of where our pipeline places images labeled in good and bad categories suggests that our approach can efficiently and accurately determine the quality of exposures. Applied to new imaging being reduced for DECaLS Data Release 11, our pipeline identifies 780 problematic exposures, which we subsequently verify through visual inspection. Being highly efficient and adaptable, our method offers a scalable solution for quality control in other large imaging surveys.

Luo, Yufeng (ORCID:0000000246230683)↗

Hardware acceleration for HPS algorithms in two and three dimensions

We provide a flexible, open-source framework for hardware acceleration, namely massively-parallel execution on general-purpose graphics processing units (GPUs), applied to the hierarchical Poincaré–Steklov (HPS) family of algorithms for building fast direct solvers for linear elliptic partial differential equations. To take full advantage of the power of hardware acceleration, we propose two variants of HPS algorithms to improve performance on two- and three-dimensional problems. In the two-dimensional setting, we introduce a novel recomputation strategy that minimizes costly data transfers to and from the GPU; in three dimensions, we modify and extend the adaptive discretization technique of Geldermans and Gillman [1] to greatly reduce peak memory usage. We provide an open-source implementation of these methods written in JAX, a high-level accelerated linear algebra package, which allows for the first integration of a high-order fast direct solver with automatic differentiation tools. We conclude with extensive numerical examples showing our methods are fast and accurate on two- and three-dimensional problems.

Fast direct solvers↗

Digital image correlation and infrared thermography data for seven unique geometries of 304L stainless steel

Material Testing 2.0 (MT2.0) is a paradigm that advocates for the use of rich, full-field data, such as from digital image correlation and infrared thermography, for material identification. By employing heterogeneous, multi-axial data in conjunction with sophisticated inverse calibration techniques such as finite element model updating and the virtual fields method, MT2.0 aims to reduce the number of specimens needed for material identification and to increase confidence in the calibration results. To support continued development, improvement, and validation of such inverse methods—specifically for rate-dependent, temperature-dependent, and anisotropic metal plasticity models—we provide here a thorough experimental data set for 304L stainless steel sheet metal. The data set includes full-field displacement, strain, and temperature data for seven unique specimen geometries tested at different strain rates and in different material orientations. Commensurate extensometer strain data from tensile dog bones is provided as well for comparison. We believe this complete data set will be a valuable contribution to the experimental and computational mechanics communities, supporting continued advances in material identification methods.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Scientific Discovery with Physics-Informed System Identification (Abbreviated Report)

My fellowship research focused on making physics-based simulations faster and more useful through machine learning. Many problems in science and engineering are governed by partial differential equations, but high-fidelity simulations are often too expensive to run repeatedly. I worked on improving Latent Space Dynamics Identification (LaSDI), a reduced-order modeling framework that compresses large simulation data sets into a smaller representation and then learns how that representation evolves over time. The motivation was to develop reduced models that remain accurate for more challenging systems, especially when predictions must remain reliable over long time intervals or when the underlying dynamics are more complicated than standard methods can easily handle. I also contributed to related work on Quandary, a high-performance software effort for simulation and control of open quantum systems, before focusing primarily on Latent Space Dynamics Identification methods. The main outcomes of the fellowship were two new algorithms (both of which were published), Rollout-LaSDI and Higher-Order LaSDI, together with supporting work on multi-stage Latent Space Dynamics Identification. Rollout-LaSDI improved long-term prediction by training the model to stay accurate over extended time horizons, and Higher-Order LaSDI broadened the method so it could model systems with higher-order time dynamics. My contributions to multistage Latent Space Dynamics Identification also helped show that its later training stages could be simplified without losing effectiveness, and that this behavior held across different model architectures and training strategies. Taken together, these advances improved the accuracy, flexibility, and practical value of reduced-order modeling tools for computational science.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A function space approach to smoothing with applications to model error estimation for flexible spacecraft control

A function space approach to smoothing is used to obtain a set of model error estimates inherent in a reduced-order model. By establishing knowledge of inevitable deficiencies in the truncated model, the error estimates provide a foundation for updating the model and thereby improving system performance. The function space smoothing solution leads to a specification of a method for computation of the model error estimates and development of model error analysis techniques for comparison between actual and estimated errors. The paper summarizes the model error estimation approach as well as an application arising in the area of modeling for spacecraft attitude control.

Rodriguez, G.↗

Analyses of Multishaft Rotor-Bearing Response

Method works for linear and nonlinear systems. Finite-element-based computer program developed to analyze free and forced response of multishaft rotor-bearing systems. Acronym, ARDS, denotes Analysis of Rotor Dynamic Systems. Systems with nonlinear interconnection or support bearings or both analyzed by numerically integrating reduced set of coupledsystem equations. Linear systems analyzed in closed form for steady excitations and treated as equivalent to nonlinear systems for transient excitation. ARDS is FORTRAN program developed on an Amdahl 470 (similar to IBM 370).

Nelson, H. D.↗

A Study on the Effects of Ball Defects on the Fatigue Life in Hybrid Bearings

Hybrid ball bearings using silicon nitride ceramic balls with steel rings are increasingly being used in space mechanism applications due to their high wear resistance and long rolling contact fatigue life. However, qualitative and quantitative reports of the effects of ball defects that cause early fatigue failure are rare. We report on our approach to study these effects. Our strategy includes characterization of defects encountered in use, generation of similar defects in a laboratory setting, execution of full-scale bearing tests to obtain lifetimes, post-test characterization, and related finite-element modeling to understand the stress concentration of these defects. We have confirmed that at least one type of defect of appropriate size can significantly reduce fatigue life. Our method can be used to evaluate other defects as they occur or are encountered.

Tang, Ching-Yao↗

Kodiak: An Implementation Framework for Branch and Bound Algorithms

Recursive branch and bound algorithms are often used to refine and isolate solutions to several classes of global optimization problems. A rigorous computation framework for the solution of systems of equations and inequalities involving nonlinear real arithmetic over hyper-rectangular variable and parameter domains is presented. It is derived from a generic branch and bound algorithm that has been formally verified, and utilizes self-validating enclosure methods, namely interval arithmetic and, for polynomials and rational functions, Bernstein expansion. Since bounds computed by these enclosure methods are sound, this approach may be used reliably in software verification tools. Advantage is taken of the partial derivatives of the constraint functions involved in the system, firstly to reduce the branching factor by the use of bisection heuristics and secondly to permit the computation of bifurcation sets for systems of ordinary differential equations. The associated software development, Kodiak, is presented, along with examples of three different branch and bound problem types it implements.

Smith, Andrew P.↗

Quantitative Measurement of Oxygen in Microgravity Combustion

A low-gravity environment, in space or in ground-based facilities such as drop towers, provides a unique setting for studying combustion mechanisms. Understanding the physical phenomena controlling the ignition and spread of flames in microgravity has importance for space safety as well as for better characterization of dynamical and chemical combustion processes which are normally masked by buoyancy and other gravity-related effects. Due to restrictions associated with performing measurements in reduced gravity, diagnostic methods which have been applied to microgravity combustion studies have generally been limited to capture of flame emissions on film or video, laser Schlieren imaging and (intrusive) temperature measurements using thermocouples. Given the development of detailed theoretical models, more sophisticated diagnostic methods are needed to provide the kind of quantitative data necessary to characterize the properties of microgravity combustion processes as well as provide accurate feedback to improve the predictive capabilities of the models. When the demands of space flight are considered, the need for improved diagnostic systems which are rugged, compact, reliable, and operate at low power becomes apparent. The objective of this research is twofold. First, we want to develop a better understanding of the relative roles of diffusion and reaction of oxygen in microgravity combustion. As the primary oxidizer species, oxygen plays a major role in controlling the observed properties of flames, including flame front speed (in solid or liquid flames), extinguishment characteristics, flame size and flame temperature. The second objective is to develop better diagnostics based on diode laser absorption which can be of real value in both microgravity combustion research and as a sensor on-board Spacelab as either an air quality monitor or as part of a fire detection system. In our prior microgravity work, an eight line-of-sight fiber optic system measured water vapor mole fractions in the NASA Lewis 2.2-sec Drop Tower. In that system, the laser and all electronics resided at the top of the drop tower and was connected via a fiber optic cable to the rig, on which a 'pitch and catch' set of fiber collimating lenses were used to transmit the laser beam across a jet diffusion flame. This system required eight independent detection/demodulation units and had poor spatial resolution. This research builds on this earlier work, resulting in an improved capability for quantitative, nonintrusive measurement of major combustion species. A vertical cavity surface-emitting diode laser (VCSEL) and a continuous spatial scanning method permit the measurement of temporal and spatial profiles of the concentrations and temperatures of molecular oxygen. High detection sensitivity is achieved with wavelength modulation spectroscopy (WMS). One-g experiments are performed using a slot diffusion flame. Microgravity measurements on a solid fuel (cellulose sheet) system are planned for the NASA Lewis 2.2-second Drop Tower Facility.

Silver, Joel A.↗

Reduction of Convection in Closed Tube Vapor Transport Experiments

The primary objective of this effort was to develop a method for suppressing convective flows during the growth of mercurous chloride crystals by vapor transport in closed tubes to levels approaching those obtained in the microgravity environment. Mercurous chloride was chosen because it is a technologically interesting acoustical optical material whose optical properties are believed to be affected by convective flows. Since the Grashof number scales as the cube of the smallest dimension in the flow system, reduction of the size scale can be extremely effective in reducing unwanted convective flows. However, since materials of practical interest must be grown at least on the cm scale, reduction of the overall growth system is not feasible. But if the region just above the growing crystal could be restricted to a few mm, considerable reduction in flow velocity would result. By suspending an effusive barrier in the growth ampoule just above the growth interface, it should be possible to reduce the convective velocity in this vicinity to levels approaching flows in microgravity. If successful, this growth technique will offer a screening test for proposed space experiments that involve vapor transport to see if reduction of convection will result in improved material and will set a new standard against which the improvements obtained in microgravity may be judged. In addition, it may provide an improved method for preparing materials on Earth whose growth is affected adversely by convection. If the properties of this material can be improved there is a potential commercial interest from Brimrose Inc., who has agreed to fabricate and test devices from the crystals we have grown. This report describes the development of the growth facility, the purification processes developed for preparing the starting material, and the results from growth experiments with and without the effusive baffle. Mercurous chloride turned out to be a more difficult material to deal with than originally anticipated. At growth temperatures, it is extremely sensitive to practically any impurity which causes it to form oxychlorides and/or to decompose into elemental mercury and bichloride of mercury. We were unable to find a suitable method for protecting the magnetic material used to suspend the effusion barrier from the attack of mercurous chloride vapor. Although we were successful in growing single crystals of mercurous chloride without the effusion baffle, they exhibited severe microcracking which we attribute to wall-induced thermal stresses. This leads us to believe that uncontrolled convection may not be the most important problem in the development of this material and a new growth process was attempted that eliminates the wall-induced stress. Unfortunately, the grant ran out before this new method could be adequately tested.

Naumann, R. J.↗

A dynamic transformation method for modal synthesis.

This paper presents a condensation method for large discrete parameter vibration analysis of complex structures that greatly reduces truncation errors and provides accurate definition of modes in a selected frequency range. A dynamic transformation is obtained from the partitioned equations of motion that relates modes not explicity in the condensed solution to the retained modes at a selected system frequency. The generalized mass and stiffness matrices, obtained with existing modal synthesis methods, are reduced using this transformation and solved. Revised solutions are then obtained using new transformations at the calculated eigenvalues and are also used to assess the accuracy of the results. If all the modes of interest have not been obtained, the results are used to select a new set of retained coordinates and a new transformation frequency, and the procedure is repeated for another group of modes.

Kuhar, E. J.↗

Prediction of noise constrained optimum takeoff procedures

An optimization method is used to predict safe, maximum-performance takeoff procedures which satisfy noise constraints at multiple observer locations. The takeoff flight is represented by two-degree-of-freedom dynamical equations with aircraft angle-of-attack and engine power setting as control functions. The engine thrust, mass flow and noise source parameters are assumed to be given functions of the engine power setting and aircraft Mach number. Effective Perceived Noise Levels at the observers are treated as functionals of the control functions. The method is demonstrated by applying it to an Advanced Supersonic Transport aircraft design. The results indicate that automated takeoff procedures (continuously varying controls) can be used to significantly reduce community and certification noise without jeopardizing safety or degrading performance.

Padula, S. L.↗

Mixed models and reduction method for dynamic analysis of anisotropic shells

A time-domain computational procedure is presented for predicting the dynamic response of laminated anisotropic shells. The two key elements of the procedure are: (1) use of mixed finite element models having independent interpolation (shape) functions for stress resultants and generalized displacements for the spatial discretization of the shell, with the stress resultants allowed to be discontinuous at interelement boundaries; and (2) use of a dynamic reduction method, with the global approximation vectors consisting of the static solution and an orthogonal set of Lanczos vectors. The dynamic reduction is accomplished by means of successive application of the finite element method and the classical Rayleigh-Ritz technique. The finite element method is first used to generate the global approximation vectors. Then the Rayleigh-Ritz technique is used to generate a reduced system of ordinary differential equations in the amplitudes of these modes. The temporal integration of the reduced differential equations is performed by using an explicit half-station central difference scheme (Leap-frog method). The effectiveness of the proposed procedure is demonstrated by means of a numerical example and its advantages over reduction methods used with the displacement formulation are discussed.

Noor, A. K.↗