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At least 325 records · Page 18

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DOE OSTI2023

20 kV Gallium Nitride pn Diode Electro-Magnetic Pulse Arrestor for Grid Reliability (Final Scientific/Technical Report)

This project developed vertical Gallium Nitride (GaN) pn diodes under two main thrusts: (1) A focus on relatively higher-voltage devices for use as fast EMP arrestors to protect the electric grid; and (2) A focus on a Foundry effort to establish the manufacturability of relatively lower voltage devices. For the first thrust, the aim was to develop devices that go into avalanche breakdown to clamp the voltage across sensitive grid equipment subject to voltage transients induced by electromagnetic pulses (EMPs). Devices with breakdown voltages exceeding 6.5 kV were achieved, and breakdown times shorter than 1 ns were demonstrated, which is sufficiently fast to protect against the fast component of an EMP-induced signal. Key challenges included the epitaxial growth of thick (50 µm or more), low-doped (low 10 15 cm -3 range) GaN layers comprising the drift regions of the diodes, as well as the design and fabrication of edge termination structures (step-etched junction termination extensions) to prevent premature breakdown. Midway through the project, an additional emphasis was put on large-area, high-current devices, and forward currents of approximately 400 A were achieved in composite devices towards the end of the project. Experimental and theoretical studies of impact ionization and avalanche ruggedness were also conducted. For the second thrust (the Foundry), the focus was primarily on 1.2-kV-class devices, although towards the end of the project outstanding results on 3.3-kV class devices were also achieved. The aim of the Foundry was to develop a high-yield, reliable, and economic vertical GaN pn diode process. The Foundry conducted characterization of incoming epitaxial material and correlated this information with the yield and performance of fully processed devices. Wafer maps of diode characteristics such as forward and reverse current as well as capacitance-voltage curves were measured using auto-probing. Several mask sets comprising different-area devices as well as multiple edge termination designs (implanted junction termination extensions, guard rings, and combinations thereof) were studied, and machine-learning-based approaches were utilized to analyze the data. Packaging and reliability efforts were also undertaken for the Foundry diodes, which are necessary for a viable commercial process.

20KV↗

DOE OSTI2023

20 kV Gallium Nitride pn Diode Electro-Magnetic Pulse Arrestor for Grid Reliability (Final Report)

This project developed vertical Gallium Nitride (GaN) pn diodes under two main thrusts: (1) A focus on relatively higher-voltage devices for use as fast EMP arrestors to protect the electric grid; and (2) A focus on a Foundry effort to establish the manufacturability of relatively lower-voltage devices. For the first thrust, the aim was to develop devices that go into avalanche breakdown to clamp the voltage across sensitive grid equipment subject to voltage transients induced by electromagnetic pulses (EMPs). Devices with breakdown voltages exceeding 6.5 kV were achieved, and breakdown times shorter than 1 ns were demonstrated, which is sufficiently fast to protect against the fast component of an EMP-induced signal. Key challenges included the epitaxial growth of thick (50 um or more), low-doped (low 10 15 cm -3 range) GaN layers comprising the drift regions of the diodes, as well as the design and fabrication of edge termination structures (step-etched junction termination extensions) to prevent premature breakdown. Midway through the project, an additional emphasis was put on large-area, high-current devices, and forward currents of approximately 400 A were achieved in composite devices towards the end of the project. Experimental and theoretical studies of impact ionization and avalanche ruggedness were also conducted. For the second thrust (the Foundry), the focus was primarily on 1.2-kV-class devices, although towards the end of the project outstanding results on 3.3-kV-class devices were also achieved. The aim of the Foundry was to develop a high-yield, reliable, and economic vertical GaN pn diode process. The Foundry conducted characterization of incoming epitaxial material and correlated this information with the yield and performance of fully processed devices. Wafer maps of diode characteristics such as forward and reverse current as well as capacitance-voltage curves were measured using auto-probing. Several mask sets comprising different-area devices as well as multiple edge termination designs (implanted junction termination extensions, guard rings, and combinations thereof) were studied, and machine-learning-based approaches were utilized to analyze the data. Packaging and reliability efforts were also undertaken for the Foundry diodes, which are necessary for a viable commercial process.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2021

A new long-term sampling approach to viruses on surfaces

The importance of virus disease outbreaks and its prevention is of growing public concern but our understanding of virus transmission routes is limited by adequate sampling strategies. While conventional swabbing methods provide merely a microbial snapshot, an ideal sampling strategy would allow reliable collection of viral genomic data over longer time periods. This study has evaluated a new, paper-based sticker approach for collection of reliable viral genomic data over longer time periods up to 14 days and after implementation of different hygiene measures. In contrast to swabbing methods, which sample viral load present on a surface at a given time, the paper-based stickers are attached to the surface area of interest and collect viruses that would have otherwise been transferred onto that surface. The major advantage of one-side adhesive stickers is that they are permanently attachable to a variety of surfaces. Initial results demonstrate that stickers permit stable recovery characteristics, even at low virus titers. Stickers also allow reliable virus detection after implementation of routine hygiene measures and over longer periods up to 14 days. Overall, results for this new sticker approach for virus genomic data collection are encouraging, but further studies are required to confirm anticipated benefits over a range of virus types.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Feasibility of critical infrastructure protection using network functions for programmable and decoupled ICS policy enforcement over WAN

Industrial control systems (ICS) represent a major component of our critical infrastructure. With the increasing need for more control and monitoring of such systems, ICS have seen an increase in connectivity to wide area networks (WAN) exposing aging equipment to rapidly evolving cybersecurity threats. Furthermore, the ICS data requires a reliability measure from the networks for critical functions for infrastructure monitoring and control. Especially when remote plant sites are involved such as pipelines, energy distribution networks, and transportation, WAN transport impairments most often provide a best effort delivery with no strict reliability guarantees. Network functions can provide a vendor agnostic, programmable critical infrastructure protection with a single maintenance, policy determination, and reliability assurance surface. A network function (NF) can be utilized for policy enforcement over the communication between remote entities and the main control office. This paper presents the research on transparent integration with existing ICS without disrupting communications, resulting in minimal downtime while decoupling the fast paced evolution of defensive security measures from the upgrade cycle of expensive long term hardware. We report our measurements on the resource requirements and overhead in the network for successful NF insertion under a wide variety of network impairments (network packet delay, reordering, and loss). Our paired NF implementation provides a policy enforcement platform extensible to cover myriad cybersecurity-related communication goals, including packet signing for verification, encryption for data privacy, packet filtering and data diode operation (i.e. protecting against eavesdropping, packet injection, and denial-of-service). Furthermore, bundling communication specifications into packet flows allows for tunability in applying policies as coarse- or fine-grained as the needs of the operator. We report on network function resource requirements in the form of required queue depth and network utilization overhead to inform the decision making against hardware cost constraints.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Evaluation of Time-Series Gap-Filling Methods for Solar Irradiance Applications

A complete solar resource data set is essential for any stage of a solar energy project - from feasibility studies to daily operations. But measured or modeled solar resource data are prone to data gaps and data quality issues. To mitigate these issues, a data imputation process should be implemented to obtain a complete and reliable temporal and spatial data series. This study focused on imputing temporal scales by applying random and artificial data gaps and then implementing eight imputation methods, including the Kalman filtering and smoothing and stine interpolations. These methods were implemented on 1-minute to half hourly irradiance data for 1 year using a few locations from the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) and ground measurement data set. The results demonstrated that some of the simpler methods, such as the stine and linear interpolation methods, were the relatively best models based on the statistical metrics for imputing NSRDB and ground measurement data, respectively.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Determination of Molecular Structure and Dynamics of Molten Salts by Advanced Neutron and X-ray Scattering Measurements and Computer Modeling

The design and development of fully functional Molten-Salt Reactors (MSR) require detailed knowledge of the molten salt properties in order to understand and predict the salt’s behavior. Fundamental properties of interest include molecular structure, speciation, and dynamics (such as diffusion coefficients) of salt components and dissolved corrosion and fission products. Computer modeling is necessary to predict changes in physical and chemical properties due to irradiation, burning of dissolved fuel, and corrosion. The modeling requires experimental data, and advanced neutron and x-ray scattering and spectroscopy provide the most reliable and direct determination of the structure (Pair-Distribution Functions, PDF), and dynamics of ions in the melt. This project dealt with both fluoride and chloride salts. The PDFs have been measured by a combination of neutron and x-ray diffraction. We utilized the techniques of isotope substitutions, a very powerful tool available for neutron-scattering, to extract the details of the liquid structure. Although similar measurements have been done before, modern advanced neutron and x-ray-scattering techniques allow collecting the data at much higher resolution and in a wider range of temperatures. Importantly, we were among the first to study fluoride salts by neutron scattering. The importance of impurities and their effects on salt properties have become apparent recently and so new methods of salt purification were developed. We took advantage of these developments to produce reliable data, which have been used for computer simulations of both clean salts and those with added fission and corrosion products most relevant for MSRs. Ab initio molecular dynamics simulations have been performed to understand the multi-component liquid solution, in particular solubility of impurities and thermodynamic interactions in relation to the ionic-cluster structure of the fluid. We applied machine learning to regress from the simulation and experimental data in order to develop a fast-acting model that can handle molten salt with an arbitrary (≥ 10) number of chemical elements and be able to predict chemical potential as a function of composition and temperature. This project resulted in a number of experimental and computer-simulation publications, a patent application, and numerous conference presentations (American Physical Society, American Chemical Society, and The Electrochemical Society among others). Multiple students and postdocs participated and collaborated on aspects of this project. This project seeded new collaborations between MIT and other institutions, such as the University of Massachusetts Lowell, the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, the University of California Berkeley, and Oak Ridge and Los Alamos National Labs. As such, this project has had a broad and lasting impact beyond its original scientific scope.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2026

A call to standardize metrics for monitoring baleen whales near marine construction activities

Effective monitoring is necessary to protect marine mammal species during the construction of offshore infrastructure. The tools for detecting or monitoring marine mammals span traditional (e.g., visual observers, optical cameras), to newer (e.g., passive acoustic monitoring, infrared cameras, tags), and emerging (e.g., satellite imagery, environmental DNA, dimethyl sulfide concentration) technologies. Some are better suited for use during offshore development; however, peer-reviewed literature does not typically evaluate and report on the performance of these various technologies. We define a minimum set of metrics related to efficacy (i.e., confusion matrix, precision and recall, probability of missed mitigation), detection range (i.e., maximum and reliable detection range, spatial resolution), and data delivery (i.e., detection latency, system reliability, temporal resolution) that we recommend are needed to assess the utility of monitoring technologies for this purpose. Following a literature review of relevant studies, we highlight which publications reported these metrics and used multiple technologies to compare relative performance. We also emphasize the benefits of multi-modal approaches and recommend performance assessments through modeling or large-scale collaborative field testing. These metrics will standardize data collection, reporting, and analysis; promote consistent and comparable results; and foster collaboration among developers, regulatory agencies, and scientists. This may lead to the co-development of technology that achieves multiple goals, has greater application, and can answer research questions while collecting data to fulfill permitting requirements. These metrics may also inform decisions on what systems regulatory agencies might consider using and reduce monitoring costs, which is critical to support the marine sector's rapid growth alongside marine mammal conservation.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2025

Innovative Method for Reliable Measurement of PEM Water Electrolyzer Component Resistances

Understanding the sheet resistance of porous electrodes is essential for improving the performance of polymer electrolyte membrane (PEM) water electrolyzers and related technologies. Despite its importance, existing methods often fail to provide reliable and comprehensive data, especially for porous materials with complex morphologies and non‐uniform thicknesses. This study introduces a robust and straightforward method for determining the sheet resistance of porous electrodes using a novel probe concept based on industrial printed circuit board (PCB) technology. This probe measures resistance across ten distances, ranging from 250 µm to 2500 µm, enabling local mapping of resistance. The study focuses on the sheet resistance of key components in PEM water electrolyzers, including the gas diffusion layer (GDL), porous transport layer (PTL), and catalyst layers deposited on a membrane. Additionally, an image‐processing‐based method is presented to obtain the thickness distribution of the studied catalyst layers, facilitating a detailed analysis of the electrical in‐plane resistivity with thickness variations. Overall, this methodology has the potential to expedite material integration and bridge the gap between electrode engineering and single‐cell testing, thereby advancing the development of PEM water electrolyzers.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Modeling of multi-component precipitation and crystallization for zero-liquid-discharge desalination

This study proposes novel ZLD treatment trains that integrate multi-component chemical precipitation and multi-effect evaporative crystallization for efficient brine management. The methodology emphasizes sustainability by integrating CO₂ for chemical precipitation and reducing environmental impact, exemplified with two case studies: produced water that includes industrial waste heat utilization by adopting the emerging vacuum air-gapped membrane distillation (VAGMD) technology, and brackish groundwater that is abundant in sulphate which undergoes treatment by low-salt-rejection reverse osmosis (LSRRO) with interstage chemical precipitation. Here, this study is the first of its kind to simultaneously account for reducing risk of mineral scaling and effective recovery of valuable solids when incorporating VAGMD and LSRRO in ZLD treatment trains. Using Reaktoro and WaterTAP, both Python-based, open-source platforms, we model the recovery of high-purity magnesium, calcium, and sodium salts while optimizing energy consumption and operational efficiency in proposed ZLD pathways for case studies of produced water and brackish desalination brine management. Validation with experimental and reference data confirms the reliability of the models used. In both case studies, the optimized ZLD process achieves recovery rates of 97%, 99%, and 90% for Mg, Ca, and Na, with purities exceeding 99%, and brine volume reduced to less than 4% of the initial feed flow.

3D CT scans↗

DOE OSTI2023

The effect of chemical functional groups on the octane sensitivity of fuel blends for spark-ignited and multimode engines

We report the octane sensitivity of fuel blends containing blendstocks of diverse chemical functionalities blended in concentrations up to 20% by volume into BOBs (Blendstocks for Oxygenate Blending). This study focuses on the blendstocks containing functional groups which lack reliable octane number data. The effects on octane sensitivity of blends of cyclopropanes, alkyl carbonates, oxiranes, alcohols, ketones, esters, nitrogen-containing compounds, cyclic and olefinic hydrocarbons, multifunctional materials containing combinations of these functionalities, and the co-blends of the blendstocks with ethanol in a BOB have been evaluated. Octane sensitivity of the blends containing functional groups that haven’t been evaluated before are discussed.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2022

Computation of conventional and alternative jet fuel sensitivity to lean blowout

Large Eddy Simulations (LES) are performed to compute the sensitivity of a conventional (A-2) and an alternate bio-jet (C-1) fuel to Lean Blowout (LBO). A realistic aviation gas turbine engine combustor configuration is considered. Reliable experimental LBO data and OH* chemiluminescence data for the conventional and alternate jet fuel in the combustor configuration have recently become available. The present work utilizes a highly automated, on-the-fly meshing strategy, along with adaptive mesh refinement, to demonstrate the feasibility of capturing the realistic combustion processes. A Lagrangian framework, with initial conditions specified using measurements of spray statistics, is used to model the fuel spray. Newly developed compact reaction mechanisms based on fuel surrogates are validated for the A-2 and the C-1 fuels. The compact reaction mechanisms are implemented using a detailed finite rate chemistry solver. Spray statistics computed by the present LES simulations compare well with available measurements at stable flame conditions near the lean blowout limit. The computed shape of the stable flame as represented by line integrated OH concentrations compares well with the experimental OH* chemiluminescence data. Lean blowout is reached by gradually decreasing the fuel flow rate in the computations, similar to that in the experiments. The results of the LES simulations effectively capture the fuel composition effects and estimate the sensitivity of the LBO limits to the fuel type. The computed trends in LBO limits agree within engineering accuracy with the experimental results for conventional and alternative aviation fuels. The methodology for predicting the fuel composition effects on the lean blowout limits in a fully resolved realistic, complex combustor is established for the first time.

Adaptive mesh refinement↗

DOE OSTI2021

Machine learning based inverse modeling of full-field strain distribution for mechanical characterization of a linear elastic and heterogeneous membrane

Heterogeneous membranes or films are thin and soft structures with spatial variations in material property and thickness. Mechanical behavior of heterogeneous membranes is not well understood, mainly due to the difficulty in obtaining accurate and reliable material property data. To understand the mechanical behavior of these materials, accurate and efficient characterization methods for heterogeneous membranes are needed. Here, in this paper, an inverse method based on machine learning is developed to efficiently extract mechanical properties from full-field strain distributions. This approach is demonstrated on a flat heterogeneous membrane with uniform thickness formed by up to four linear elastic synthetic materials in a grid arrangement, and deforming in a moderate strain range (true strain ~10%). The results show that the machine learning method achieves accuracy comparable to the traditional inverse finite element method, and is 6 orders of magnitude faster in the demonstrated case studies.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Microbial potentiometric sensor: A new approach to longstanding challenges

The underlying hypothesis of this study is that simple potentiometric measurements between sensing electrodes and a shared reference electrode - Microbial Potentiometric Sesnor (MPS) system - can be employed in a long-term, continuous mode of operation to resolve the spatial and temporal changes in environmental systems. To address the hypothesis, (1) a conceptual description of the MPS system and its postulated principle of operation are provided; (2) the MPS system performance is documented under controlled laboratory conditions; and (3) the capabilities of the MPS system are documented under quiescent and dynamic field condition. In a laboratory setting, the variability among different MPS signals was insignificant confirming the postulated high accuracy and reproducibility of the sensor performance. It also demonstrated statistically significant correlations with dissolved oxygen (DO) and oxidation-reduction potential (ORP) sensors, while showing capabilities of operating under anoxic and anaerobic conditions. Regardless of their locations in the model wetland system, three MPS sensors functioned without interruption and cleaning for a period >2 years, and thus demonstrating long-term durability of the MPS technology. In real batch-wastewater treatment facility, the deployed MPS system signals were able to describe the organic carbon trends and correlate with each treatment phase in a cycle. Data reproducibility and reliability exceeded the expectations better describing the carbon treatment levels than the DO and ORP sensors (p < 4.4 × 10 –162 vs phase adjusted p < 3.0 × 10 –58 ). While MPS signals correlate with specific parameters that describe the local process or environments, it is more prudent to employ both the magnitude and pattern of a composite signal like the MPS signal describe the change to reflect any shift in the local environment. Finally, when compared to a baseline pattern, this change in signal magnitude and pattern reveals important information that can be employed to tailor and optimize any condition or process which involves microorganisms.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Climate change is intensifying rainfall erosivity and soil erosion in West Africa

Soil erosion is a critical environmental challenge with significant implications for agriculture, water quality, and ecosystem stability. Understanding its dynamics is essential for sustainable environmental management and societal welfare. Here, we analyze rainfall erosivity and erosion patterns across West Africa (WAF) during the historical (1982–2014), near future (2028–2060), and far future (2068–2100) periods under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs 370 and 585). Using bias-corrected-downscaled (BCD) climate models validated against reference data, we ensure an accurate representation of rainfall—a key driver of erosivity (R-factor) and soil erosion. We compare Renard's approach and the Modified Fournier Index (MFI) to calculate the R-factor and note a strong correlation. However, Renard's method shows slightly lower accuracy in Sierra Leone, Guinea, and The Gambia, likely due to its inability to capture high-intensity, short-duration rainfall events. In contrast, the MFI, utilizing continuous rain gauge data, proves more reliable for these regions. We also attribute fluctuations in erosivity, such as those seen during the 2003 West Africa floods, to synoptic weather patterns influenced by multiple climate processes. Furthermore, our analysis reveals regions where future soil erosion could exceed 20 t/ha/yr due to climate change. Under the SSP 370 scenario, soil erosion in WAF is projected to rise by 14.84 % in the near future and 18.65 % in the far future, increasing further under SSP 585 to 19.86 % and 23.49 %, respectively. The most severe increases are expected in Benin and Nigeria, with Nigeria potentially facing a 66.41 % rise in erosion by the far future under SSP 585. These findings highlight the region's exposure to intensified climatic conditions and underscore the urgent need for targeted soil management and climate adaptation strategies to mitigate erosion's ecological and socioeconomic impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Analysis of Interpretable Data Representations for 4D-STEM Using Unsupervised Learning

Abstract Understanding the structure of materials is crucial for engineering devices and materials with enhanced performance. Four-dimensional scanning transmission electron microscopy (4D-STEM) is capable of mapping nanometer-scale local crystallographic structure over micron-scale field of views. However, 4D-STEM datasets can contain tens of thousands of images from a wide variety of material structures, making it difficult to automate detection and classification of structures. Traditional automated analysis pipelines for 4D-STEM focus on supervised approaches, which require prior knowledge of the material structure and cannot describe anomalous or deviant structures. In this article, a pipeline for engineering 4D-STEM feature representations for unsupervised clustering using non-negative matrix factorization (NMF) is introduced. Each feature is evaluated using NMF and results are presented for both simulated and experimental data. It is shown that some data representations more reliably identify overlapping grains. Additionally, real space refinement is applied to identify spatially distinct sample regions, allowing for size and shape analysis to be performed. This work lays the foundation for improved analysis of nanoscale structural features in materials that deviate from expected crystallographic arrangement using 4D-STEM.

Bruefach, Alexandra (ORCID:0000000209323477)↗

DOE OSTI2023

Compound Continental Risk of Multiple Extreme Floods in the United States

Abstract Understanding spatially correlated floods and modeling joint hazard associated with threshold exceedances across multiple locations is crucial for accurate estimation of continental‐scale portfolio risk. This work uses a non‐parametric copula‐based spatial simulator to analyze peak floods across the United States to derive the first‐of‐its‐kind continental portfolio risk estimates at the 10‐ and 100‐year return levels. We find significant interdependence in floods across the nation, revealing the recurring pattern of extreme events affecting the Northeast, Central, West, and Northwest United States in the same year. The stochastic simulator effectively manages high‐dimensional data and offers reliable uncertainty estimates for both spatially dependent floods and the aggregated flood losses at the continental level. El Niño‐Southern Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation are identified as statistically significant tele‐connectors of aggregate loss. This research aims to advance the understanding of compound continental flood hazard and the potential large‐scale climate teleconnections that lead to such compound floods.

Geology↗

DOE OSTI2023

Physics-embedded inverse analysis with algorithmic differentiation for the earth’s subsurface

Abstract Inverse analysis has been utilized to understand unknown underground geological properties by matching the observational data with simulators. To overcome the underconstrained nature of inverse problems and achieve good performance, an approach is presented with embedded physics and a technique known as algorithmic differentiation. We use a physics-embedded generative model, which takes statistically simple parameters as input and outputs subsurface properties (e.g., permeability or P-wave velocity), that embeds physical knowledge of the subsurface properties into inverse analysis and improves its performance. We tested the application of this approach on four geologic problems: two heterogeneous hydraulic conductivity fields, a hydraulic fracture network, and a seismic inversion for P-wave velocity. This physics-embedded inverse analysis approach consistently characterizes these geological problems accurately. Furthermore, the excellent performance in matching the observational data demonstrates the reliability of the proposed method. Moreover, the application of algorithmic differentiation makes this an easy and fast approach to inverse analysis when dealing with complicated geological structures.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Measuring the robustness of predictive probability for early stopping in two-group comparisons

We report physical experiments are often expensive and time-consuming. Test engineers must certify the compatibility of aircraft and their weapon systems before they can be deployed in the field, but the testing required is time consuming, expensive, and resource limited. Adopting Bayesian adaptive designs is a promising way to borrow from the successes seen in the clinical trials domain. The use of predictive probability (PP) to stop testing early and make faster decisions is particularly appealing given the aforementioned constraints. Given the high-consequence nature of the tests performed in the national security space, a strong understanding of new methods is required before being deployed. Although PP has been thoroughly studied for binary data, there is less work with continuous data, where many reliability studies are interested in certifying the specification limits of components. A simulation study evaluating the robustness of this approach indicates early stopping based on PP is reasonably robust to minor assumption violations, especially when only a few interim analyses are conducted. The simulation study also compares PP to conditional power, showing its relative strengths and weaknesses. A post-hoc analysis exploring whether release requirements of a weapon system from an aircraft are within specification with desired reliability resulted in stopping the experiment early and saving 33% of the experimental runs.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗