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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Adaptation to Environmental Extremes Structures Functional Traits in Biological Soil Crust and Hypolithic Microbial Communities

Biological soil crusts (biocrusts) are widespread in drylands and deserts. At the microhabitat scale, they also host hypolithic communities that live under semitranslucent stones. Both environmental niches experience exposure to extreme conditions such as high UV radiation, desiccation, temperature fluctuations, and resource limitation. However, hypolithic communities are somewhat protected from extremes relative to biocrust communities. Conditions are otherwise similar, so comparing them can answer outstanding questions regarding adaptations to environmental extremes. Using metagenomic sequencing, we assessed the functional potential of dryland soil communities and identified the functional underpinnings of ecological niche differentiation in biocrusts versus hypoliths. We also determined the effect of the anchoring photoautotroph (moss or cyanobacteria). Genes and pathways differing in abundance between biocrusts and hypoliths indicate that biocrust communities adapt to the higher levels of UV radiation, desiccation, and temperature extremes through an increased ability to repair damaged DNA, sense and respond to environmental stimuli, and interact with other community members and the environment. Intracellular competition appears to be crucial to both communities, with biocrust communities using the Type VI Secretion System (T6SS) and hypoliths favoring a diversity of antibiotics. The dominant primary producer had a reduced effect on community functional potential compared with niche, but an abundance of genes related to monosaccharide, amino acid, and osmoprotectant uptake in moss-dominated communities indicates reliance on resources provided to heterotrophs by mosses. Our findings indicate that functional traits in dryland communities are driven by adaptations to extremes and we identify strategies that likely enable survival in dryland ecosystems.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Online peak-aware energy scheduling with untrusted advice

This paper studies the online energy scheduling problem in a hybrid model where the cost of energy is proportional to both the volume and peak usage, and where energy can be either locally generated or drawn from the grid. Inspired by recent advances in online algorithms with Machine Learned (ML) advice, we develop parameterized deterministic and randomized algorithms for this problem such that the level of reliance on the advice can be adjusted by a trust parameter. We then analyze the performance of the proposed algorithms using two performance metrics: robustness that measures the competitive ratio as a function of the trust parameter when the advice is inaccurate, and consistency for competitive ratio when the advice is accurate. Since the competitive ratio is analyzed in two different regimes, we further investigate the Pareto optimality of the proposed algorithms. Our results show that the proposed deterministic algorithm is Pareto-optimal, in the sense that no other online deterministic algorithms can dominate the robustness and consistency of our algorithm. Furthermore, we show that the proposed randomized algorithm dominates the Pareto-optimal deterministic algorithm. Our large-scale empirical evaluations using real traces of energy demand, energy prices, and renewable energy generations highlight that the proposed algorithms outperform worst-case optimized algorithms and fully data-driven algorithms.

Lee, Russell↗
DOE OSTI2022

Stealthy Cyber Anomaly Detection On Large Noisy Multi-material 3D Printer Datasets Using Probabilistic Models

As Additive Layer Manufacturing (ALM) becomes pervasive in industry, its applications in safety critical component manufacturing are being explored and adopted. However, ALM's reliance on embedded computing renders it vulnerable to tampering through cyber-attacks. Sensor instrumentation of ALM devices allows for rigorous process and security monitoring, but also results in a massive volume of noisy data for each run. As such, in-situ, near-real-time anomaly detection is very challenging. The ideal algorithm for this context is simple, computationally efficient, minimizes false positives, and is accurate enough to resolve small deviations. In this paper, we present a probabilistic-model-based approach to address this challenge. To test our approach, we analyze current measurements from a polymer composite 3D printer during emulated tampering attacks. Our results show that our approach can consistently and efficiently locate small changes in the presence of substantial operational noise.

Yoginath, Srikanth↗
DOE OSTI2026

JANUS: Resilient and Adaptive Data Transmission for Enabling Timely and Efficient Cross-Facility Scientific Workflows

In modern science, the growing complexity of large-scale scientific projects has led to an increasing reliance on cross-facility scientific workflows, where resources and expertise from multiple institutions and geographic locations are leveraged to accelerate scientific discovery. These workflows often require transmitting huge amounts of scientific data through wide-area networks. Although high-speed networks like ESnet and transfer services such as Globus have improved data mobility, several challenges remain. The sheer volume of data can overwhelm network bandwidth, widely used transport protocols such as TCP suffer from inefficiencies due to retransmissions triggered by packet loss, and existing fault-tolerance mechanisms like erasure coding introduce substantial overhead. In this paper, we propose Janus, a resilient and adaptable data transmission approach designed for cross-facility scientific workflows. Unlike traditional TCP-based methods, Janus leverages UDP, integrates erasure coding for fault tolerance, and combines it with error-bounded lossy compression to reduce overhead. This novel design allows users to balance data transmission time and accuracy, optimizing transfer performance based on specific scientific requirements. Additionally, Janus dynamically adjusts erasure coding parameters in response to real-time network conditions, ensuring efficient data transfers even in fluctuating environments. We develop optimization models for determining ideal configurations and implement adaptive data transfer protocols to enhance reliability. Through extensive simulations and real-network experiments, we demonstrate that Janus significantly improves transfer efficiency while maintaining data fidelity.

Esaulov, Vladislav [Georgia State University, Atla↗
DOE OSTI2026

Plasticizer-Free Gradient-Crosslinked Polyurethane Electrolyte for Room-Temperature Solid-State Lithium Batteries

Polymer-based solid-state electrolytes are promising for next-generation lithium metal batteries, yet their limited ionic conductivity and mechanical stability at ambient conditions remain key challenges. Herein, we report a novel gradient crosslinked polymer electrolyte (PU/PUA/PU) synthesized via a sequential in situ UV-curing process that integrates a mechanically robust polyurethane acrylate (PUA) core with soft linear polyurethane (PU) interfaces. This all-solid membrane operates without any liquid plasticizer and the interfacial PU layers ensure low interfacial resistance and intimate electrode contact, while the PUA core provides enhanced dimensional stability and dendrite suppression. As a result, the gradient electrolyte delivers an impressive ∼2.6 × 10 −4 S cm −1 ionic conductivity at 25 °C (two orders of magnitude higher than conventional PEO) and remains electrochemically stable >5 V (vs Li + /Li). Structural analysis confirms the formation of a well-defined crosslinked network with suppressed crystallinity and expanded interchain spacing. Electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) and linear sweep voltammetry (LSV) further validate these properties. When applied in a Li||NMC811 cell, the PU/PUA/PU electrolyte delivers stable cycling with high capacity at both 60 °C and 25 °C, demonstrating its potential for room-temperature solid-state battery applications without reliance on plasticizers or heating. In conclusion, this gradient design offers a practical path toward ambient-condition operation of solid-state lithium batteries, providing a paradigm for overcoming the traditional trade-off between ionic conductivity and mechanical robustness.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Smart Preprocessing & Robust Integration Emulator

To achieve the desired particle size of biomass feedstocks during preprocessing for trouble-free handling and conversion to produce biofuels and bioproducts, the raw materials must undergo a crucial milling process. The particle size of biomass plays a critical role in subsequent biofuel manufacturing, where a larger area-to-volume ratio facilitates efficient synthesis while balancing the impact of moisture on biomass storage. To optimize biofuel production efficiency and overcome these challenges, it is imperative to accurately predict the particle size distribution (PSD) of the biomass in the design of efficient preprocessing systems. The population balance model (PBM), upon empirical calibration and validation, can provide rapid prediction of post-milling PSD of granular biomass. However, PSD has limitations related to mass conservation and the absence of moisture considerations. To overcome these drawbacks, a deep learning model called the enhanced deep neural operator (DNO+) is implemented in the code. This model not only retains the capabilities of the PBM in handling complex mapping functions but also incorporates additional factors influencing the system. By considering various experimental conditions such as sieve size and moisture content, the trained DNO+ model can effectively predict the PSD after milling for any given feed PSD. To further reduce the reliance on experimental data, the PBM is integrated into the DNO+ model, resulting in a physics-informed DNO+ (PIDNO+). The PIDNO+ model addresses the non-conservation of quality exhibited by the PBM while inheriting the advantages of the DNO+ model in considering multiple influencing factors. Moreover, the PIDNO+ model significantly reduces the amount of data required for model training. Both deep learning models, i.e., DNO+ and PIDNO+, are excellent in predictive performance, offering swift and accurate machine learning-based predictions. The use of this code that contains these models will assist in guiding the proper milling equipment selection and operational conditions to achieve the desired biomass particle sizes, ensuring the efficiency of subsequent biofuel and bioproduct production processes.

Xia, Yidong [Idaho National Laboratory (INL), Idah↗
DOE OSTI2025

Datum: A Scientific Metadata Catalog

The data catalog market is currently flooded with a myriad of different products, but none serve the scientific community well. There are cloud-native tools like Databricks, Snowflake,to on-premise solutions like Collibra and Datahub. The common failing of all these tools however, is their inability to serve the scientific data community directly. Most catalogs are targeted towards financial, health, or user data - not sensor or scientific domain data. They also prioritize integrations that often don’t exist or are just starting to be used in the scientific realm - all while ignoring common scientific tools and file types. Datum is a catalog which targets the scientific data directly, including the tools and networks in which those tools are used. We work with the producers and consumers of the data where they are, targeting cloud and on-premise with a focus on classified networks. Datum is an Erlang/Elixir application. Technical Features Note: The features listed below are still under development and may change, slightly, upon final delivery of the product. File Formats - Datum has the ability to read additional metadata and provides processing pipelines for the following file formats: Plain Text, PDF, LaTeX, HTML, Open Document Format (.odt), XML, CSV/TSV (and other standard delimiters), OpenDocument Database and Spreadsheets, Geo-Referenced TIFF, Common Data Format, HDF/HDF5, LabView TDMS, Excel, DeltaTables, Parquet, Apache Iceberg, Apache Hudi and many others. Metadata Collection - Scanners for the local and networked file systems and cloud storage providers. Network integration with common databases such as MSSQL and MySQL. User Plugin System - Users are able to provide either file processing, metadata extraction, or sampling plugins in the programming language of their choice. Authentication/Authorization -: OIDC integration, SCIM provisioning and EntraID integration out of the box. Full user and group management system with a “least privilege” operating mode. Governance - Customizable data governance platform; dictate and enforce required metadata, enforce data embargos, and enforce user agreements and NDAs before data access. Ability to create health checks on data, rejecting abandoned or poorly curated data and automatically removing it from the search index. Ability for users to submit corrections. Search - Semantic search is a first class citizen. No licenses to expensive, external software required. Integrated use of vectors and vector-based search allows for AI agent integration at all levels of operation. Metadata Model - Display and control data’s lineage and connections to other data and data directories. Data is modeled after a filesystem - an organization instantly recognizable and navigable by most any user. CLI and SDK - Ships with a Command Line Interface (CLI) tool and with a fully-featured Python SDK. This allows for rapid and programmatic use of Datum by every level of user. Minimal Infrastructure - Datum ships as a single executable file and can be run on any operating system and most CPU architectures. Datum has no reliance on external databases, search indexing tools, or other outside services - and it runs equally well on edge computing devices, cloud services, or in a clustered HPC environment.

darrington, john↗
DOE OSTI2025

DONUT: Physics-aware Machine Learning for Real-time X-ray Nanodiffraction Analysis

SF-25-088 Coherent X-ray scattering techniques are critical for investigating the fundamental structural properties of materials at the nanoscale. While advancements have made these experiments more accessible, real-time analysis remains a significant bottleneck, often hindered by artifacts and computational demands. In scanning X-ray nanodiffraction microscopy, which is widely used to spatially resolve structural heterogeneities, this challenge is compounded by the convolution of the divergent beam with the sample’s local structure. To address this, we introduce DONUT (Diffraction with Optics for Nanobeam by Unsupervised Training), a physics-aware neural network designed for the rapid and automated analysis of nanobeam diffraction data. By incorporating a differentiable geometric diffraction model directly into its architecture, DONUT learns to predict crystal lattice strain and orientation in real-time. Crucially, this is achieved without reliance on labeled datasets or pre-training, overcoming a fundamental limitation for supervised machine learning in X-ray science. We demonstrate experimentally that DONUT accurately extracts all features within the data over 200 times more efficiently than conventional fitting methods.

Zhou, Tao [Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), Argo↗
DOE OSTI2020

PERSIANN Dynamic Infrared–Rain Rate Model (PDIR) for High-Resolution, Real-Time Satellite Precipitation Estimation

Precipitation measurements with high spatiotemporal resolution are a vital input for hydrometeorological and water resources studies; decision-making in disaster management; and weather, climate, and hydrological forecasting. Moreover, real-time precipitation estimation with high precision is pivotal for the monitoring and managing of catastrophic hydroclimate disasters such as flash floods, which frequently transpire after extreme rainfall. While algorithms that exclusively use satellite infrared data as input are attractive owing to their rich spatiotemporal resolution and near-instantaneous availability, their sole reliance on cloud-top brightness temperature (T b ) readings causes underestimates in wet regions and overestimates in dry regions—this is especially evident over the western contiguous United States (CONUS). We introduce an algorithm, the Precipitation Estimations from Remotely Sensed Information Using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN) Dynamic Infrared–Rain rate model (PDIR), which utilizes climatological data to construct a dynamic (i.e., laterally shifting) T b –rain rate relationship that has several notable advantages over other quantitative precipitation-estimation algorithms and noteworthy skill over the western CONUS. Validation of PDIR over the western CONUS shows a promising degree of skill, notably at the annual scale, where it performs well in comparison to other satellite-based products. Analysis of two extreme landfalling atmospheric rivers show that solely IR-based PDIR performs reasonably well compared to other IR- and PMW-based satellite rainfall products, marking its potential to be effective in real-time monitoring of extreme storms. This research suggests that IR-based algorithms that contain the spatiotemporal richness and near-instantaneous availability needed for rapid natural hazards response may soon contain the skill needed for hydrologic and water resource applications.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Impact of Vegetation Assimilation on Flash Drought Characteristics across the Continental United States

Predicting and managing the impacts of flash droughts is difficult owing to their rapid onset and intensification. Flash drought monitoring often relies on assessing changes in root-zone soil moisture. However, the lack of widespread soil moisture measurements means that flash drought assessments often use process-based model data like that from the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS). Such reliance opens flash drought assessment to model biases, particularly from vegetation processes. Here, we examine the influence of vegetation on NLDAS-simulated flash drought characteristics by comparing two experiments covering 1981–2017: open loop (OL), which uses NLDAS surface meteorological forcing to drive a land surface model using prognostic vegetation, and data assimilation (DA), which instead assimilates near-real-time satellite-derived leaf area index (LAI) into the land surface model. The OL simulation consistently underestimates LAI across the United States, causing relatively high soil moisture values. Both experiments produce similar geographic patterns of flash droughts, but OL produces shorter duration events and regional trends in flash drought occurrence that are sometimes opposite to those in DA. Across the Midwest and Southern United States, flash droughts are 4 weeks (about 70%) longer on average in DA than OL. Moreover, across much of the Great Plains, flash drought occurrence has trended upward according to the DA experiment, opposite to the trend in OL. This sensitivity of flash drought to the representation of vegetation suggests that representing plants with greater fidelity could aid in monitoring flash droughts and improve the prediction of flash drought transitions to more persistent and damaging long-term droughts.

Drought↗
DOE OSTI2025

An Alternative Ensemble Streamflow Prediction Approach Using Improved Subseasonal Precipitation Forecasts from the North America Multi-Model Ensemble Phase II

In this article, streamflow forecasting at a subseasonal time scale (10–30 days into the future) is important for various human activities. The ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) is a widely applied technique for subseasonal streamflow forecasting. However, ESP’s reliance on the randomly resampled historical precipitation limits its predictive capability. Available dynamical subseasonal precipitation forecasts provide an alternative to the randomly resampled precipitation in ESP. Prior studies found the predictive performance of raw subseasonal precipitation forecast is limited in many regions such as the central south of the United States, which raises questions about its effectiveness in assisting streamflow forecasting. To further assess the hydrologic applicability of dynamical subseasonal precipitation forecasts, we test the subseasonal precipitation forecast from North America Multi-Model Ensemble Phase II (NMME-2) at four watersheds in the central south region of the United States. The subseasonal precipitation forecasts are postprocessed with bias correction and spatial disaggregation (BCSD) to correct bias and improve spatial resolution before replacing the randomly resampled precipitation in ESP for streamflow predictions. The performance of the resulting streamflow predictions is benchmarked with ESP. Evaluation is conducted using Kling–Gupta Efficiency (KGE), continuous ranked probability score (CRPS), probability of detection (POD), false alarm ratios (FARs), as well as reliability diagrams. Our results suggest that BCSD-corrected subseasonal precipitation forecasts lead to overall improved streamflow predictions due to added skills in winter and spring. Our results also suggest that BCSD-corrected subseasonal precipitation forecasts lead to improved predictions on the occurrence of high-percentile streamflow values above 75%. Overall, BCSD-corrected subseasonal precipitation has shown promising performance, highlighting its potential broader applications for river and flood forecasting.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Simulation as a sustainable trading zone: Aiming at intergenerational justice

The paper, drawing on the example of simulation codes used in nuclear physics and high-energy physics, seeks to call attention to the ethical implications of discontinuing support for simulation codes and the loss of knowledge embodied in them. Predicated on the concept of trading zones and actor network models, the paper addresses the problem of extinction of simulation codes and attempts to understand their evolution and development within those frameworks. We show that simulation codes of closed type develop to the level of creoles, becoming local languages and standards of scientific centers and disappearing as their few main developers leave, whereas codes of open types become universal languages, imposing problemsolving patterns on the entire community and crowding out other codes. The paper suggests that because of simulations’ reliance on tacit knowledge, practices entrenched in codes cannot be exhaustively explicated or transmitted through writing alone; on the contrary, the life cycle of a simulation code is determined by the life cycle of its trading zone. We examine the extent to which both of these phenomena pose a risk to the preservation of knowledge. Bearing upon intergenerational ethics, we draw analogies between the pure intergenerational problem (PIP) and the problem of preserving the knowledge implemented in simulation codes and transmitting it to future generations. We argue that for the complete transfer of knowledge, it is necessary to develop and maintain inhabitability and sustainability of simulation trading zones in a controllable way, at least until the demand for these codes is warranted to cease in the future.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Development and Outcomes of Returning Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbon Exposure Results in the Washington Heights, NYC Community

Report-back of research results (RBRR) is becoming standard practice for environmental health research studies. RBRR is thought to increase environmental health literacy (EHL), although standardized measurements are limited. For this study, we developed a report back document on exposure to air pollutants, Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons, during pregnancy through community engaged research and evaluated whether the report increased EHL. We used focus groups and surveys to gather feedback on the report document from an initial group of study participants (Group 1, n = 22) and then sent the revised report to a larger number of participants (Group 2, n = 168). We conducted focus groups among participants in Group 1 and discussed their suggested changes to the report and how those changes could be implemented. Participants in focus groups demonstrated multiple levels of EHL. While participant engagement critically informed report development, a survey comparing feedback from Group 1 (initial report) and Group 2 (revised report) did not show a significant difference in the ease of reading the report or knowledge gained about air pollutants. We acknowledge that our approach was limited by a lack of EHL tools that assess knowledge and behavior change, and a reliance on quantitative methodologies. Future approaches that merge qualitative and quantitative methodologies to evaluate RBRR and methodologies for assessing RBRR materials and subsequent changes in knowledge, attitudes, and behavior, may be necessary.

Children’s Environmental Health↗
DOE OSTI2023

Multi-injection investigation of a high-volatility diesel in advanced compression ignition combustion for NO x control

Traditional selective catalytic reduction aftertreatment technologies used to reduce [Formula: see text] are very limited at exhaust temperatures below [Formula: see text]. Therefore, under these low engine load conditions, having effective in-cylinder control of [Formula: see text] emissions is important. Previous work by the authors explored the effect of fuel physical properties on the ability to control [Formula: see text] in-cylinder. That work was limited to one direct injection near top dead center. Modern diesel high-pressure fuel systems have the capability of five or more injections in one engine cycle. A higher-volatility diesel fuel and high amounts of exhaust gas recirculation to delay ignition could provide an opportunity for reduction in engine-out [Formula: see text] through an increased level of fuel premixing. By appropriately timing multiple short injections, a more optimal distribution of fuel in-cylinder may be achieved, which could reduce [Formula: see text] while maintaining an efficient combustion phasing. A computational fluid dynamics model previously validated against experimental data was used to explore several injection strategies with increased levels of fuel premixing to assess the potential trade-offs between [Formula: see text] and CO/unburned hydrocarbon (UHC) emissions and thus reduce reliance on the aftertreatment system for [Formula: see text] control. The results show that the devised injection strategies resulted in an increased level of fuel premixing. However, none of the attempted injection strategies resulted in significant [Formula: see text] reductions, and all strategies showed a significant increase in CO and UHC emissions.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2020

ATLAS: a Snakemake workflow for assembly, annotation, and genomic binning of metagenome sequence data

Background: Metagenomics and metatranscriptomics studies provide valuable insight into the composition and function of microbial populations from diverse environments, however the data processing pipelines that rely on mapping reads to gene catalogs or genome databases for cultured strains yield results that underrepresent the genes and functional potential of uncultured microbes. Recent improvements in sequence assembly methods have eased the reliance on genome databases, thereby allowing the recovery of genomes from uncultured microbes. However, configuring these tools, linking them with advanced binning and annotation tools, and maintaining provenance of the processing continues to be challenging for researchers. Results: Here we present ATLAS, a software package for customizable data processing from raw sequence reads to functional and taxonomic annotations using state-of-the-art tools to assemble, annotate, quantify, and bin metagenome and metatranscriptome data. Genome-centric resolution and abundance estimates are provided for each sample in a dataset. ATLAS is written in Python and the workflow implemented in Snakemake; it operates in a Linux environment, and is compatible with Python 3.5+ and Anaconda 3+ versions. The source code for ATLAS is freely available, distributed under a BSD-3 license. Conclusions: ATLAS provides a user-friendly, modular and customizable Snakemake workflow for metagenome and metatranscriptome data processing; it is easily installable with conda and maintained as open-source on GitHub at https://github.com/metagenome-atlas/atlas.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Assessing the reliability of medical resource demand models in the context of COVID-19

Abstract Background Numerous medical resource demand models have been created as tools for governments or hospitals, aiming to predict the need for crucial resources like ventilators, hospital beds, personal protective equipment (PPE), and diagnostic kits during crises such as the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the reliability of these demand models remains uncertain. Methods Demand models typically consist of two main components: hospital use epidemiological models that predict hospitalizations or daily admissions, and a demand calculator that translates the outputs of the epidemiological model into predictions for resource usage. We conducted separate analyses to evaluate each of these components. In the first analysis, we validated various hospital use epidemiological models using a recent validation framework designed for epidemiological models. This allowed us to quantify the accuracy of the models in predicting critical aspects such as the date and magnitude of local COVID-19 peaks, among other factors. In the second analysis, we evaluated a range of demand calculators for ventilators, medical gowns, and COVID-19 test kits. To achieve this, we decoupled these demand calculators from the underlying epidemiological models and provided ground truth data for their inputs. This approach enabled a direct comparison of the demand calculators, comparing them against each other and actual usage data when available. The code is available athttps://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.13712387. Results Performance varied greatly across the epidemiological models, with greater variability in COVID-19 hospital use predictions than for COVID-19 deaths as analyzed previously. Some models did not have any peaks. Among those that did, the models under-estimated date of peak approximately as often as they over-estimated, but were more likely to under-estimate magnitude of peak, with typical relative errors around 50%. Regarding demand calculator predictions, there was significant variability, including five-fold differences in predictions for gown models. Validation against actual or surrogate usage data illustrated the potential value of demand models while demonstrating their limitations. Conclusions The emerging field of demand modeling holds promise in averting medical resource shortages during future public health emergencies. However, achieving this potential necessitates focused efforts on standardization, transparency, and rigorous model validation before placing reliance on demand models in critical public health decision-making.

Medical Informatics↗
DOE OSTI2022

Dose-finding studies in drug development for rare genetic diseases

The small patient populations inherent to rare genetic diseases present many challenges to the traditional drug development paradigm. One major challenge is generating sufficient data in early phase studies to inform dose selection for later phase studies and dose optimization for clinical use of the drug. However, optimizing the benefit-risk profile of drugs through appropriate dose selection during drug development is critical for all drugs, including those being developed to treat rare diseases. Recognizing the challenges of conducting dose finding studies in rare disease populations and the importance of dose selection and optimization for successful drug development, we assessed the dose-finding studies and analyses conducted for drugs recently approved for rare genetic diseases. Of the 40 marketing applications for new molecular entity (NME) drugs and biologics approved by the United States Food and Drug Administration for rare genetic diseases from 2015 to 2020, 21 (53%) of the development programs conducted at least one dedicated dose-finding study. In addition, the majority of drug development programs conducted clinical studies in healthy subjects and included population pharmacokinetic and exposure–response analyses; some programs also conducted clinical studies in patient populations other than the disease for which the drug was initially approved. The majority of primary endpoints utilized in dedicated dose-finding studies were biomarkers, and the primary endpoint of the safety and efficacy study matched the primary endpoint used in the dose finding study in 9 of 13 (69%) drug development programs where primary study endpoints were assessed. Our study showed that NME drug development programs for rare genetic diseases utilize multiple data sources for dosing information, including studies in healthy subjects, population pharmacokinetic analyses, and exposure–response analyses. In addition, our results indicate that biomarkers play a key role in dose-finding studies for rare genetic disease drug development programs. Our findings highlight the need to develop study designs and methods to allow adequate dose-finding efforts within rare disease drug development programs that help overcome the challenges presented by low patient prevalence and other factors. Furthermore, the frequent reliance on biomarkers as endpoints for dose-finding studies underscores the importance of biomarker development in rare diseases.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Roadmap for the future of extreme wildfire events

Background Extreme wildfire events (EWEs) represent a growing threat globally, posing substantial risks to ecosystems, human communities, and infrastructure. Despite increased recognition of their ecological, social, and economic significance, current definitions of EWEs vary widely, reflecting disciplinary biases and regional contexts. This article emerges from an interdisciplinary workshop convened to reassess and refine the definition of EWEs, examine their impacts across ecological and social dimensions, and identify critical knowledge gaps impeding our understanding of these infrequent but important events. Results Our synthesis highlights significant limitations with existing definitions, particularly their reliance on subjective thresholds and their emphasis on extreme fire behavior alone. EWEs encompass a spectrum of complex, multi-dimensional phenomena that extend beyond immediate biophysical characteristics to include cumulative social, economic, and ecological impacts. These impacts often manifest over extended timeframes and include hazardous environmental contamination, severe geomorphic disturbances, ecosystem transformations, and unintended consequences of post-fire management actions. Current wildfire modeling frameworks inadequately capture these compounding factors, particularly the interactions among social systems, ecological conditions, and extreme fire behavior. To overcome these issues, we advocate for an interdisciplinary and context-sensitive approach to defining and studying EWEs. This revised definition emphasizes wildfires exhibiting anomalies in fire behavior, ecological outcomes, or social impacts relative to historically observed baselines, accommodating variability across different geographic regions and ecological settings. Conclusions Adopting an interdisciplinary framework that integrates biophysical and social sciences will enhance the predictive capability of wildfire models and improve resilience planning and response strategies. Filling identified knowledge gaps—such as limited high-quality empirical fire behavior data and insufficient integration of social dynamics into modeling—will better prepare communities and ecosystems to cope with and adapt to EWEs. This inclusive approach underscores the necessity for collaboration across disciplines and sectors, essential to managing extreme wildfires in an era of increasing climatic and ecological uncertainty.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗