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NASA NTRS2005

Common Cause Case Study: An Estimated Probability of Four Solid Rocket Booster Hold-Down Post Stud Hang-ups

Until Solid Rocket Motor ignition, the Space Shuttle is mated to the Mobil Launch Platform in part via eight (8) Solid Rocket Booster (SRB) hold-down bolts. The bolts are fractured using redundant pyrotechnics, and are designed to drop through a hold-down post on the Mobile Launch Platform before the Space Shuttle begins movement. The Space Shuttle program has experienced numerous failures where a bolt has hung up. That is, it did not clear the hold-down post before liftoff and was caught by the SRBs. This places an additional structural load on the vehicle that was not included in the original certification requirements. The Space Shuttle is currently being certified to withstand the loads induced by up to three (3) of eight (8) SRB hold-down experiencing a "hang-up". The results of loads analyses performed for (4) stud hang-ups indicate that the internal vehicle loads exceed current structural certification limits at several locations. To determine the risk to the vehicle from four (4) stud hang-ups, the likelihood of the scenario occurring must first be evaluated. Prior to the analysis discussed in this paper, the likelihood of occurrence had been estimated assuming that the stud hang-ups were completely independent events. That is, it was assumed that no common causes or factors existed between the individual stud hang-up events. A review of the data associated with the hang-up events, showed that a common factor (timing skew) was present. This paper summarizes a revised likelihood evaluation performed for the four (4) stud hang-ups case considering that there are common factors associated with the stud hang-ups. The results show that explicitly (i.e. not using standard common cause methodologies such as beta factor or Multiple Greek Letter modeling) taking into account the common factor of timing skew results in an increase in the estimated likelihood of four (4) stud hang-ups of an order of magnitude over the independent failure case.

Cross, Robert↗

NASA NTRS2010

An Assessment of the Current LEO Debris Environment and the Need for Active Debris Removal

The anti-satellite test on the Fengun-1 C weather satellite in early 2007 and the collision between Iridium 33 and Cosmos 2251 in 2009 dramatically altered the landscape of the human-made orbital debris environment in the low Earth orbit (LEO). The two events generated approximately 5500 fragments large enough to be tracked by the U.S. Space Surveillance Network. Those fragments account for more than 60% increase to the debris population in LEO. However, even before the ASAT test, model analyses already indicated that the debris population (for those larger than 10 cm) in LEO had reached a point where the population would continue to increase, due to collisions among existing objects, even without any future launches. The conclusion implies that as satellites continue to be launched and unexpected breakup events continue to occur, commonly-adopted mitigation measures will not be able to stop the collision-driven population growth. To remediate the debris environment in LEO, active debris removal must be considered. This presentation will provide an updated assessment of the debris environment after the Iridium 33/Cosmos 2251 collision, an analysis of several future environment projections based on different scenarios, and a projection of collision activities in LEO in the near future. The need to use active debris removal to stabilize future debris environment will be demonstrated and the effectiveness of various active debris removal strategies will be quantified.

Liou, Jer-Chyi↗

NASA NTRS2011

A Technology Pathway for Airbreathing, Combined-Cycle, Horizontal Space Launch Through SR-71 Based Trajectory Modeling

Access to space is in the early stages of commercialization. Private enterprises, mainly under direct or indirect subsidy by the government, have been making headway into the LEO launch systems infrastructure, of small-weight-class payloads of approximately 1000 lbs. These moderate gains have emboldened the launch industry and they are poised to move into the middle-weight class (roughly 5000 lbs). These commercially successful systems are based on relatively straightforward LOX-RP, two-stage, bi-propellant rocket technology developed by the government 40 years ago, accompanied by many technology improvements. In this paper we examine a known generic LOX-RP system with the focus on the booster stage (1st stage). The booster stage is then compared to modeled Rocket-Based and Turbine-Based Combined Cycle booster stages. The air-breathing propulsion stages are based on/or extrapolated from known performance parameters of ground tested RBCC (the Marquardt Ejector Ramjet) and TBCC (the SR-71/J-58 engine) data. Validated engine models using GECAT and SCCREAM are coupled with trajectory optimization and analysis in POST-II to explore viable launch scenarios using hypothetical aerospaceplane platform obeying the aerodynamic model of the SR-71. Finally, and assessment is made of the requisite research technology advances necessary for successful commercial and government adoption of combined-cycle engine systems for space access.

Kloesel, Kurt J.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Soil Moisture Data Assimilation in the NASA Land Information System for Local Modeling Applications and Improved Situational Awareness

As part of the NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) Early Adopter (EA) program, the NASA Shortterm Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has implemented a data assimilation (DA) routine into the NASA Land Information System (LIS) for soil moisture retrievals from the European Space Agency's Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS) satellite. The SMAP EA program promotes application‐driven research to provide a fundamental understanding of how SMAP data products will be used to improve decision‐making at operational agencies. SPoRT has partnered with select NOAA/NWS Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) that use output from a real‐time regional configuration of LIS, without soil moisture DA, to initialize local numerical weather prediction (NWP) models and enhance situational awareness. Improvements to local NWP with the current LIS have been demonstrated; however, a better representation of the land surface through assimilation of SMOS (and eventually SMAP) retrievals is expected to lead to further model improvement, particularly during warm‐season months. SPoRT will collaborate with select WFOs to assess the impact of soil moisture DA on operational forecast situations. Assimilation of the legacy SMOS instrument data provides an opportunity to develop expertise in preparation for using SMAP data products shortly after the scheduled launch on 5 November 2014. SMOS contains a passive L‐band radiometer that is used to retrieve surface soil moisture at 35‐km resolution with an accuracy of 0.04 cu cm cm (exp -3). SMAP will feature a comparable passive L‐band instrument in conjunction with a 3‐km resolution active radar component of slightly degraded accuracy. A combined radar‐radiometer product will offer unprecedented global coverage of soil moisture at high spatial resolution (9 km) for hydrometeorological applications, balancing the resolution and accuracy of the active and passive instruments, respectively. The LIS software framework manages land surface model (LSM) simulations and includes an Ensemble Kalman Filter for conducting land surface DA. SPoRT has added a module to read, quality‐control and bias‐correct swaths of Level II SMOS soil moisture retrievals prior to assimilation within LIS. The impact of SMOS DA is being tested using the Noah LSM. Experiments are being conducted to examine the impacts of SMOS soil moisture DA on the resulting LISNoah fields and subsequent NWP simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model initialized with LIS‐Noah output. LIS‐Noah soil moisture will be validated against in situ observations from Texas A&M's North American Soil Moisture Database to reveal the impact and possible improvement in soil moisture trends through DA. WRF model NWP case studies will test the impacts of DA on the simulated near‐surface and boundary‐layer environments, and precipitation during both quiescent and disturbed weather scenarios. Emphasis will be placed on cases with large analysis increments, especially due to contributions from regional irrigation patterns that are not represented by precipitation input in the baseline LIS‐Noah run. This poster presentation will describe the soil moisture DA methodology and highlight LIS‐Noah and WRF simulation results with and without assimilation.

Case, Jonathan L.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Satellite services system analysis study: Propellant transfer system

General servicing requirements, a servicing mission concept and scenario, overall servicing needs, basic servicing equipment, and a general servicing mission configuration layout are addressed. Servicing needs, equipment concepts, system requirements equipment specifications, preliminary designs, and resource requirements for flight hardware for the propellant transfer system are also addressed.

Source record↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Stability Analysis of the Flow over a Swept Forward-Facing Step using PIV Base Flowsin a Non-Orthogonal Coordinate System

Understanding the flow of a crossflow-vortex-dominated boundary layer over a forward-facing step excrescence is necessary in order to mitigate an early transition scenario on the wings and tail of commercial aircraft. By performing BiGlobal stability analysis on the flowfield measured with high-resolution, stereographic Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV), previous work has shown that a family of unstable disturbances exists in the direct downstream vicinity of a supercritical, forward-facing step. The goal of the present paper is to improve the previously used stability approach on two fronts: 1) the stability problem is formulated in a non-orthogonal coordinate system and 2) the contribution of the out-of-plane base-flow derivatives is accounted for locally. The resulting eigen solutions feature significantly stronger growth rates and eigenfunctions that are localized above regions of reverse flow. The changes in the problem formulation furthermore establish a significant improvement in the comparison of the stability solutions with the results from the Spectral Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (SPOD) of a time-resolved measurement of the perturbation content. A large destabilizing effect by the out-of-plane base-flow derivatives is determined to be justified, despite the assumption that these derivatives are small, because the effect can be reconstructed upon using an eigenvalue-correction formula that assumes the responsible terms are infinitesimally small. The unstable perturbation mechanisms are demonstrated to have a convective nature by assessing the relation between the frequency and the out-of-plane wavenumber, which indicates that their group speed does not approach zero. The last 2 facts, that 1) the perturbations are convective and 2) that the out-of-plane base-flow-derivative terms are small, remove any qualitative suspicions that the perturbation problem is not conducive to parabolization. This opens the path to analyzing this problem with a plane-marching approach.

Boundary- Layer Transition↗

NASA NTRS2003

Mars Exploration Rover Six-Degree-Of-Freedom Entry Trajectory Analysis

The Mars Exploration Rover mission will be the next opportunity for surface exploration of Mars in January 2004. Two rovers will be delivered to the surface of Mars using the same entry, descent, and landing scenario that was developed and successfully implemented by Mars Pathfinder. This investigation describes the trajectory analysis that was performed for the hypersonic portion of the MER entry. In this analysis, a six-degree-of-freedom trajectory simulation of the entry is performed to determine the entry characteristics of the capsules. In addition, a Monte Carlo analysis is also performed to statistically assess the robustness of the entry design to off-nominal conditions to assure that all entry requirements are satisfied. The results show that the attitude at peak heating and parachute deployment are well within entry limits. In addition, the parachute deployment dynamics pressure and Mach number are also well within the design requirements.

Desai, Prasun N.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Structural Analysis for the American Airlines Flight 587 Accident Investigation: Global Analysis

NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) supported the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) in the American Airlines Flight 587 accident investigation due to LaRC's expertise in high-fidelity structural analysis and testing of composite structures and materials. A Global Analysis Team from LaRC reviewed the manufacturer s design and certification procedures, developed finite element models and conducted structural analyses, and participated jointly with the NTSB and Airbus in subcomponent tests conducted at Airbus in Hamburg, Germany. The Global Analysis Team identified no significant or obvious deficiencies in the Airbus certification and design methods. Analysis results from the LaRC team indicated that the most-likely failure scenario was failure initiation at the right rear main attachment fitting (lug), followed by an unstable progression of failure of all fin-to-fuselage attachments and separation of the VTP from the aircraft. Additionally, analysis results indicated that failure initiates at the final observed maximum fin loading condition in the accident, when the VTP was subjected to loads that were at minimum 1.92 times the design limit load condition for certification. For certification, the VTP is only required to support loads of 1.5 times design limit load without catastrophic failure. The maximum loading during the accident was shown to significantly exceed the certification requirement. Thus, the structure appeared to perform in a manner consistent with its design and certification, and failure is attributed to VTP loads greater than expected.

Young, Richard D.↗

NASA NTRS2023

Market Analysis of the Subsonic Single Aft Engine (SUSAN) Transport Aircraft Concept

This paper presents a detailed market analysis of the U.S. domestic aviation market in support of the NASA subsonic single aft engine (SUSAN) regional aircraft concept. The current scoping of the SUSAN concept is intended to compete in the medium to large (160-180 seats) narrow body market, with range capabilities of up to 2,500 nautical miles, and expected fuel burn reduction up to 40% relative to conventional 2 engine aircraft. Recent historical trends suggest growth in aviation passenger demand will continue to be met by the narrow body fleet of aircraft; however, a comprehensive review is required to understand how these current fleet trends could evolve in the future. Moreover, estimating and forecasting the potential market size is the critical first step when developing a new aircraft concept to determine commercial viability. To assist in the trade space exploration of the SUSAN concept, a generalized traffic and fleet forecast of the U.S. aviation market is conducted. Using publicly available aviation data from the U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics and passenger demand forecasts from FAA, a multinomial logit model is estimated to predict the composition of the future fleet by aircraft size. These fleet forecasts are then used as inputs for a fleet evolution model to provide required operational forecasts at the aircraft specific level. Forecast scenarios with and without the SUSAN concept are compared, and a breakeven analysis is performed to evaluate the commercial viability of the SUSAN aircraft from an operating cost perspective. Results from the multinomial logit fleet forecast indicate the narrow body size category of 150+ seats dominating the market, comprising 87% of the future revenue passenger miles market share in 2050 (up from 60% in 2019). Forecast scenarios with the SUSAN concept see a maximum cumulative decline in fuel cost of 20% by 2050, while a breakeven analysis shows competitive advantage of the SUSAN aircraft, due to expected fuel burn reduction, at moderate levels of increased maintenance and capital costs.

Jacob M. Wishart↗

NASA NTRS1993

Space Station maintenance studies using plaid graphics

The Graphics Analysis Facility (GRAF) has been used frequently to study extravehicular activity (EVA) maintenance scenarios on Space Station Freedom. The ability to use 3-dimensional visualization gives one a more accurate estimate of the Space Station environment. Moreover, human EVA and robotic kinematics can be accurately simulated for columetric reach and collision detection analysis. An animation of this kind was developed for a research group at JSC to study and discover problem areas involved with doing external Space Station maintenance tasks. On the EVA side, it was discovered that items such as handholds and temporary restraint mechanisms should more effectively facilitate EVA movement about the Space Station structure for the suited personnel. Issues concerning CETA cart configuration, PWP storage locations, and locations of EVA storage areas were also identified by use of the animation. In the area of EVA versus robotics, it was found that there is a strong desire to make EVA and robotics interfaces compatible on items such as replacement units and unpressurized logistics carriers. The animation also showed that the use of robotics within an EVA task increases the difficulty and duration of the task setup, leaving less time available for the maintenance task itself. Graphics animation provides a mechanism to simultaneously analyze several mission parameters (i.e., EVA reach, volumetric analysis, and task timelines), and thus, it has proven to be an effective method for mission evaluation.

Helm, Mary E.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Mars Aerocapture Analysis For MESUR/Mars-Pathfinder Aeroshells Using Un-modulated Control in Low L/D Configurations

Aerocapture scenarios are examined to determine the feasibility of using MESUR/Mars Pathfinder aeroshell designs to capture spacecraft aerodynamically into Mars orbit. Using lift over drag (L/D) ratios up to 0.3, entry trajectories were simulated over a range of entry vehicle masses and entry velocities. Entry corridor widths were calculated for undershoot and overshoot trajectories yielding Mars parking orbits having periods from 2 to 20 hours. For entries with L/D = 0.3, entry corridor widths of about 1.2 degrees are possible over entry velocities from 5.5 to 9.0 km/sec. The design constraints for an aeroshell used for orbital aerocapture are less severe than a ballistic entry for a surface lander mission such as Mars Pathfinder, because the aerothermodynamic heating and deceleration loads are smaller. The mass savings from aerocapture orbit insertion versus propulsive insertion into Mars orbit could result in significantly reducing program costs and increasing mission capabilities.

Wercinski, Paul F.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Abundance recovery error analysis using simulated AVIRIS data

Measurement noise and imperfect atmospheric correction translate directly into errors in the determination of the surficial abundance of materials from imaging spectrometer data. The effects of errors on abundance recovery were investigated previously using Monte Carlo simulation methods by Sabol et. al. The drawback of the Monte Carlo approach is that thousands of trials are needed to develop good statistics on the probable error in abundance recovery. This computational burden invariably limits the number of scenarios of interest that can practically be investigated. A more efficient approach is based on covariance analysis. The covariance analysis approach expresses errors in abundance as a function of noise in the spectral measurements and provides a closed form result eliminating the need for multiple trials. Monte Carlo simulation and covariance analysis are used to predict confidence limits for abundance recovery for a scenario which is modeled as being derived from Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS).

Stoner, William W.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Logistics Modeling for Lunar Exploration Systems

The extensive logistics required to support extended crewed operations in space make effective modeling of logistics requirements and deployment critical to predicting the behavior of human lunar exploration systems. This paper discusses the software that has been developed as part of the Campaign Manifest Analysis Tool in support of strategic analysis activities under the Constellation Architecture Team - Lunar. The described logistics module enables definition of logistics requirements across multiple surface locations and allows for the transfer of logistics between those locations. A key feature of the module is the loading algorithm that is used to efficiently load logistics by type into carriers and then onto landers. Attention is given to the capabilities and limitations of this loading algorithm, particularly with regard to surface transfers. These capabilities are described within the context of the object-oriented software implementation, with details provided on the applicability of using this approach to model other human exploration scenarios. Some challenges of incorporating probabilistics into this type of logistics analysis model are discussed at a high level.

Andraschko, Mark R.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Task Analytic Models to Guide Analysis and Design: Use of the Operator Function Model to Represent Pilot-Autoflight System Mode Problems

Task-analytic models structure essential information about operator interaction with complex systems, in this case pilot interaction with the autoflight system. Such models serve two purposes: (1) they allow researchers and practitioners to understand pilots' actions; and (2) they provide a compact, computational representation needed to design 'intelligent' aids, e.g., displays, assistants, and training systems. This paper demonstrates the use of the operator function model to trace the process of mode engagements while a pilot is controlling an aircraft via the, autoflight system. The operator function model is a normative and nondeterministic model of how a well-trained, well-motivated operator manages multiple concurrent activities for effective real-time control. For each function, the model links the pilot's actions with the required information. Using the operator function model, this paper describes several mode engagement scenarios. These scenarios were observed and documented during a field study that focused on mode engagements and mode transitions during normal line operations. Data including time, ATC clearances, altitude, system states, and active modes and sub-modes, engagement of modes, were recorded during sixty-six flights. Using these data, seven prototypical mode engagement scenarios were extracted. One scenario details the decision of the crew to disengage a fully automatic mode in favor of a semi-automatic mode, and the consequences of this action. Another describes a mode error involving updating aircraft speed following the engagement of a speed submode. Other scenarios detail mode confusion at various phases of the flight. This analysis uses the operator function model to identify three aspects of mode engagement: (1) the progress of pilot-aircraft-autoflight system interaction; (2) control/display information required to perform mode management activities; and (3) the potential cause(s) of mode confusion. The goal of this paper is twofold: (1) to demonstrate the use of the operator functio model methodology to describe pilot-system interaction while engaging modes And monitoring the system, and (2) to initiate a discussion of how task-analytic models might inform design processes. While the operator function model is only one type of task-analytic representation, the hypothesis of this paper is that some type of task analytic structure is a prerequisite for the design of effective human-automation interaction.

Degani, Asaf↗

NASA NTRS1976

Application of Shuttle EVA Systems to Payloads. Volume 2: Payload EVA Task Completion Plans

Candidate payload tasks for EVA application were identified and selected, based on an analysis of four representative space shuttle payloads, and typical EVA scenarios with supporting crew timelines and procedures were developed. The EVA preparations and post EVA operations, as well as the timelines emphasizing concurrent payload support functions, were also summarized.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1990

Analysis of the National Transonic Facility mishap

The nonlinear dynamic finite element code DYnamic Crash Analysis of STructures (DYCAST) was used to model an accident scenario that occurred at the National Transonic Facility (NTF) wind tunnel. A post mishap investigation revealed that a total of five upstream bulkhead fairing plates were missing, three in one location and two in another. These plates were drawn into the wind tunnel's composite fan blades causing extensive damage. A DYCAST model was developed to determine if one-half of a small thermal shield flange clamp, weighing approximately 2.7 lbs., could have spun off the NTF drive shaft and impacted the bulkhead fairing plates with sufficient energy to cause failure of the attachment bolts. The clamp was presumed to have spun off at a tangent from the NTF drive shaft at a velocity of 1624 in/sec (drive shaft rotating at 580 rpm). The DYCAST analytical model predicts that impact of the 2.7 lbs projectile failed all of the bolts in two of the fairing plates allowing them to escape from the bulkhead ring with a low velocity of a few in/sec.

Fasanella, Edwin L.↗

NASA NTRS1993

New computing systems, future computing environment, and their implications on structural analysis and design

Recent advances in computer technology that are likely to impact structural analysis and design of flight vehicles are reviewed. A brief summary is given of the advances in microelectronics, networking technologies, and in the user-interface hardware and software. The major features of new and projected computing systems, including high performance computers, parallel processing machines, and small systems, are described. Advances in programming environments, numerical algorithms, and computational strategies for new computing systems are reviewed. The impact of the advances in computer technology on structural analysis and the design of flight vehicles is described. A scenario for future computing paradigms is presented, and the near-term needs in the computational structures area are outlined.

Noor, Ahmed K.↗

NASA NTRS2000

The origin of cellular life

This essay presents a scenario of the origin of life that is based on analysis of biological architecture and mechanical design at the microstructural level. My thesis is that the same architectural and energetic constraints that shape cells today also guided the evolution of the first cells and that the molecular scaffolds that support solid-phase biochemistry in modern cells represent living microfossils of past life forms. This concept emerged from the discovery that cells mechanically stabilize themselves using tensegrity architecture and that these same building rules guide hierarchical self-assembly at all size scales (Sci. Amer 278:48-57;1998). When combined with other fundamental design principles (e.g., energy minimization, topological constraints, structural hierarchies, autocatalytic sets, solid-state biochemistry), tensegrity provides a physical basis to explain how atomic and molecular elements progressively self-assembled to create hierarchical structures with increasingly complex functions, including living cells that can self-reproduce.

Review, Academic↗