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An efficient method to propagate model uncertainty when inverting seismic data for time domain seismic moment tensors

SUMMARY We present a computationally efficient method to approximately propagate uncertainty when linearly inverting seismic data for point source, time variable moment tensor components. The method is based on the assumption that the data residual, given by the difference between the observed seismic data and the data predicated by a linear inversion, contains the effects of both data and model uncertainty. Our method uses a distribution of data residuals, added directly to the data, in a pseudo-Monte Carlo scheme. Using the assumption that the data residual is a stochastic process, we use the well-known Karhunen–Loève (KL) theorem to construct a distribution of data residuals, where the required basis functions are constructed using Fourier series. The Fourier series are scaled by a product of a random variable and the real-valued spectral amplitudes of the original data residual’s spectrum. Thus, the Fourier series and spectral amplitudes are eigenfunction-eigenvalue pairs used in the KL-based construction of data residual distribution. Using tests with synthetic data, we show that our method compares closely with a Finite Difference Monte Carlo (FDMC) method that we presented previously. More importantly, the method presented here is computationally several orders of magnitude faster than our previous FDMC method, and requires no a priori assumptions of model and/or data uncertainty.

Poppeliers, Christian (ORCID:0000000159526849)↗

Characterization with dense array data of seismic sources in the shallow part of the San Jacinto fault zone

SUMMARY We analyse dominant sources identified in a catalogue of more than 156 000 localizations performed using a 26-d data set recorded by a dense array set on the San Jacinto fault near Anza, in California. Events were localized using an array processing technique called Match Field Processing. As for all array processing techniques, the quality of the event position decrease when the events are outside of the array. We thus separate localizations in and outside the array using simple geometrical conditions. We compare the time distribution of the localization to additional data such as meteorological data, day of human activity as well as existing catalogues to determine the nature of the dominant events located using our method. We find that most of the events located outside of the array could be attributed to a surface structure excited by wind. On the other hand, part of the localizations under the array occur during regional earthquakes and could correspond to diffraction on the fault's heterogeneities. The rest of the localizations inside the array could be generated by the fault itself.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

The interpretation of crustal dynamics data in terms of plate motions and regional deformation near plate boundaries

The focus of the research was in two broad areas during the most recent 6 month period: the nature and dynamics of time-dependent deformation along major seismic zones, including the influence of irregularities in fault geometry on the earthquake cycles, and the processes contributing to the state of stress and rates of strain in plate interior regions. The principal findings of the research to date are described.

Solomon, Sean C.↗

Validation of Atmosphere/Ionosphere Signals Associated with Major Earthquakes by Multi-Instrument Space-Borne and Ground Observations

The latest catastrophic earthquake in Japan (March 2011) has renewed interest in the important question of the existence of pre-earthquake anomalous signals related to strong earthquakes. Recent studies have shown that there were precursory atmospheric/ionospheric signals observed in space associated with major earthquakes. The critical question, still widely debated in the scientific community, is whether such ionospheric/atmospheric signals systematically precede large earthquakes. To address this problem we have started to investigate anomalous ionospheric / atmospheric signals occurring prior to large earthquakes. We are studying the Earth's atmospheric electromagnetic environment by developing a multisensor model for monitoring the signals related to active tectonic faulting and earthquake processes. The integrated satellite and terrestrial framework (ISTF) is our method for validation and is based on a joint analysis of several physical and environmental parameters (thermal infrared radiation, electron concentration in the ionosphere, lineament analysis, radon/ion activities, air temperature and seismicity) that were found to be associated with earthquakes. A physical link between these parameters and earthquake processes has been provided by the recent version of Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere Coupling (LAIC) model. Our experimental measurements have supported the new theoretical estimates of LAIC hypothesis for an increase in the surface latent heat flux, integrated variability of outgoing long wave radiation (OLR) and anomalous variations of the total electron content (TEC) registered over the epicenters. Some of the major earthquakes are accompanied by an intensification of gas migration to the surface, thermodynamic and hydrodynamic processes of transformation of latent heat into thermal energy and with vertical transport of charged aerosols in the lower atmosphere. These processes lead to the generation of external electric currents in specific regions of the atmosphere and the modifications, by dc electric fields, in the ionosphere-atmosphere electric circuit. We retrospectively analyzed temporal and spatial variations of four different physical parameters (gas/radon counting rate, lineaments change, long-wave radiation transitions and ionospheric electron density/plasma variations) characterizing the state of the lithosphere/atmosphere coupling several days before the onset of the earthquakes. Validation processes consist in two phases: A. Case studies for seven recent major earthquakes: Japan (M9.0, 2011), China (M7.9, 2008), Italy (M6.3, 2009), Samoa (M7, 2009), Haiti (M7.0, 2010) and, Chile (M8.8, 2010) and B. A continuous retrospective analysis was preformed over two different regions with high seismicity- Taiwan and Japan for 2003-2009. Satellite, ground surface, and troposphere data were obtained from Terra/ASTER, Aqua/AIRS, POES and ionospheric variations from DEMETER and COSMIC-I data. Radon and GPS/TEC were obtaining from monitoring sites in Taiwan, Japan and Italy and from global ionosphere maps (GIM) respectively. Our analysis of ground and satellite data during the occurrence of 7 global earthquakes has shown the presence of anomalies in the atmosphere. Our results for Tohoku M9.0 earthquake show that on March 7th, 2011 (4 days before the main shock and 1 day before the M7.2 foreshock of March 8, 2011) a rapid increase of emitted infrared radiation was observed by the satellite data and an anomaly was developed near the epicenter. The GPS/TEC data indicate an increase and variation in electron density reaching a maximum value on March 8. From March 3 to 11 a large increase in electron concentration was recorded at all four Japanese ground-based ionosondes, which returned to normal after the main earthquake. Similar approach for analyzing atmospheric and ionospheric parameters has been applied for China (M7.9, 2008), Italy (M6.3, 2009), Samoa (M7, 2009), Haiti (M7.0, 2010) and Chile (M8.8, 2010) eahquakes. Results have revealed the presence of related variations of these parameters implying their connection with the earthquake process. The second phase (B) of this validation included 102 major earthquakes (M>5.9) in Taiwan and Japan. We have found anomalous behavior before all of these events with no false negatives. False alarm ratio for false positives is less then 10% and has been calculated for the same month of the earthquake occurrence for the entire period of analysis (2003-2009). The commonalities for detecting atmospheric/ionospheric anomalies are: i.) Regularly appearance over regions of maximum stress (i.e., along plate boundaries); ii.) Anomaly existence over land and sea; and iii) association with M>5.9 earthquakes not deeper than 100km. Due to their long duration over the same region these anomalies are not consistent with a meteorological origin. Our initial results from the ISTF validation of multi-instrument space-borne and ground observations show a systematic appearance of atmospheric anomalies near the epicentral area, one to seven (average) days prior to the largest earthquakes, and suggest that it could be explained by a coupling process between the observed physical parameters and the pre-earthquake preparation processes.

Ouzounov, Dimitar↗

Applicability of Sentinel-1 Terrain Observation by Progressive Scans multitemporal interferometry for monitoring slow ground motions in the San Francisco Bay Area

Data from the Sentinel-1 satellite have already proven useful for investigating seismic and volcanic events since its launch in April 2014. The requirement of ultrahigh coregistration accuracy and the current relatively short time of Sentinel-1 acquisitions make its application challenging for studying slow deformation processes, such as fault creep and land subsidence. Here in this paper we analyze a set of 14 SAR images over the San Francisco Bay Area spanning 1 year from early 2015 to 2016. We show that implementing an existing Enhanced Spectral Diversity algorithm or using precise orbits together with a reference digital elevation model both yield the required coregistration accuracy for making use of the phase measurements in time series analysis of ground deformation. Following a thorough validation test, we update our estimates of Hayward Fault creep rate and confirm uplift due to recharge of the Santa Clara Valley aquifer system during the final summer of 4 year drought.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A deep learning-enhanced framework for multiphysics joint inversion

Joint inversion has drawn considerable attention due to the availability of multiple geophysical data sets, ever-increasing computational resources, the development of advanced algorithms, and its ability to reduce inversion uncertainty. A key issue of joint inversion is to develop effective strategies to link different geophysical data in a unified mathematical framework, in which the information obtained from different models can complement each other. We have developed a deep learning-enhanced joint inversion framework to simultaneously reconstruct different physical models by fusing different types of geophysical data. Traditionally, structure similarity constraints are pursued by joint inversion algorithms using manually crafted formulations (e.g., cross gradient). The constraint is constructed by a deep neural network (DNN) during the learning process. The framework is designed to combine the DNN and a traditional independent inversion workflow and improve the joint inversion result iteratively. The network can be easily extended to incorporate multiphysics without structural changes. Numerical experiments on the joint inversion of 2D DC resistivity data and seismic traveltime are used to validate our method. In addition, this learning-based framework demonstrates excellent generalization abilities when tested on data sets using different geologic structures. It also can handle different sensing configurations and nonconforming discretization.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

STILGAR End-of-Project Report

The Subsurface Tunnel Imaging LeveraGed by Analysis of Rayleigh wave ellipticity (STILGAR) project demonstrated an integrated geophysical approach for detecting, locating, and characterizing underground structural changes using dense seismic arrays and advanced inversion techniques. Field campaigns were conducted at two operational mines—the Redmond salt mine (Utah) and Graymont Pleasant Gap limestone mine (Pennsylvania)—providing real-world testbeds for monitoring anthropogenic subsurface activity. At the Redmond salt mine, seismic interferometry combined with back-projection inversion successfully identified continuous, low-amplitude signals from mining operations. The approach differentiated stationary from migrating anthropogenic sources, captured daily operational cycles, and validated the potential of passive seismic monitoring for remote detection of underground activity. At the Graymont Pleasant Gap mine, two dense seismic deployments in the spring and fall of 2023 generated over 4 TB of high-resolution data. Key outcomes included the relocation of 199 underground and 8 surface explosions with accuracies within tens of meters and the development of a 3D P-wave velocity model using the triple-difference tomography algorithm (tomoTD) that resolved major structural features such as the mine entrance, low-velocity tunnels, and roof-collapse areas. Ambient noise cross-correlation and back-projection analyses revealed persistent sources linked to ongoing mining activity, whereas horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio (HVSR) and ellipticity studies confirmed stable site responses across seasons and identified soil thickness trends consistent with regional erosional and depositional processes. Checkerboard and sensitivity tests further validated the robustness of the tomographic results. Overall, the findings emphasize that although significant progress has been made in subsurface imaging, further work is needed to enhance the detection and localization of underground structures. Accurate imaging requires higher frequencies, yet anthropogenic sources tend to dominate the seismic record at those frequencies, and high-frequency surface waves are affected by higher modes that complicate interpretation. The improved detection and localization of human-induced signals enabled detailed temporal and spatial mapping of daily mine operations, demonstrating the feasibility of continuous anthropogenic source monitoring. Sensitivity to signals from nontraditional sources, such as fan operations, highlights the broader applicability of this approach to other industrial environments in which continuous and impulsive signals are present. The field campaigns produced a substantial volume of high-quality seismic data, supporting the development and testing of new methods for seismic source characterization and subsurface imaging. Future deployments should include sensors capable of recording lower frequencies to probe deeper structures, increase bandwidth to enhance resolution and sensitivity to both shallow and deep targets, and collect additional large-scale datasets to refine imaging and source characterization techniques. Moreover, conducting 3D modeling studies of seismic wavefields at higher frequencies will provide a better understanding of wave scattering and cavity–wavefield interactions in complex underground environments. In conclusion, the STILGAR project demonstrated that integrated seismic monitoring can effectively characterize underground operations, capturing both natural and anthropogenic signals. The approaches developed provide a foundation for improved detection, localization, and imaging of subsurface structures and are directly transferable to broader industrial monitoring applications.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Center for Frontiers of Subsurface Energy Security (Final Report)

For the past two decades a slowly growing consensus has been that rising temperature is being caused by increases in carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) in the Earth’s atmosphere. What is less consensual is what to do about it. Solutions range from reducing emissions to various ways to capture CO 2 (from effluents of power plants, as plants, etc.) and store it away from the atmosphere. The problem is of such magnitude that it is likely that we will need many methods. Also some methods would cause draconian harm to global economies. This work is about the storage part of the reducing of CO 2 in the atmosphere. There have been many methods proposed for storing CO 2 : in vegetation, at the bottom of oceans, in land farms, and in subsurface formations. The latter is particularly prominent given the large estimated volume in porous formation in the Earth, and the 50-year old experience in injecting CO 2 for enhanced oil recovery. This report is about the science behind subsurface storage, called here geological carbon storage or GCS. Effective GCS requires that billions of metric tons of CO 2 be injected into storage reservoirs annually. GCS feasibility requires balancing the opposing impacts of large emplacement (injection) rates without compromising caprock seal integrity during injection. Once injected, the challenge is to assure the injected CO 2 remains permanently stored. Under most conditions, CO 2 is in a supercritical state, or scCO 2 . scCO 2 is immiscible with the subsurface brine and has a factor of ten smaller viscosity, leading to the development of two-phase fluid flow and scCO 2 bypassing. After the injection of large volumes of scCO 2 , the pore pressure, state of stress, chemical, thermal, and biological steady-state or equilibrium conditions in the subsurface are disrupted, which may lead to unpredictable behavior because the responses to these changes are often non-linear. Current challenges for efficient and reliable scCO 2 storage are: (1) sustaining large injection rates; (2) using available pore space efficiently, and (3) controlling undesired or unexpected behavior, such as scCO 2 leakage. Various aspects of these challenges are addressed by collaborative projects within Center for Frontiers in Subsurface Energy Security (CFSES). Challenge 1 – Sustaining large storage rates. To offset the annual CO 2 emissions of in the United States, ~7 billion metric tons of CO 2 must be injected into the storage reservoirs annually. Injected CO 2 forms a plume that starts spreading, displacing originally resident brine, though inefficiently so. Because of its low viscosity, and buoyant forces, a CO 2 plume rises to the reservoir rock-caprock interface. Injecting large volumes of scCO 2 at sufficiently high rates into subsurface storage formations leads to increases in pore pressures, potential expansion of the reservoir rock, and may result in fracturing of the reservoir rock and/or caprock. CFSES research uses existing and new experimental and modeling approaches to identify chemical-physical controls on the permeability and pore pressure dynamics, anticipating geomechanical (fracturing) events, predicting multi-phase flow patterns and trapping of CO 2 . Challenge 2 – Using pore space with unprecedented efficiency. Since large volumes of scCO 2 are to be stored, the volume available in storage reservoirs must be used efficiently. Storage efficiency is defined as a fraction of pore space occupied by carbon dioxide. Current estimates are that less than 5 percent of available pore volume is available for storage because scCO 2 , having a smaller density and viscosity than reservoir brine, tends to form viscous fingers, and bypass available pore space. This flow regime results in a CO 2 plume spreading over large areas in subsurface. The research goal in Challenge 2 is to advance the fundamental understanding of two-phase flow through porous media, including molecular-to meter- scale experimental and modeling approaches. This work leads to novel strategies to ensure that injected CO 2 occupies more than 5% of the pore space, ideally up to 50%. Challenge 3 – Controlling undesired or unexpected behavior. Following the injection of scCO 2 , the subsurface reservoir re-equilibrates to different physical and chemical states. This re-equilibration in space and time could lead to unexpected and/or undesired behavior: fracturing of reservoir rock and/or caprock, development of preferential flow paths, CO 2 leakage (to the surface or overlaying fresh water reservoirs), induced seismicity, and activation of faults. One of the main research goals of CFSES was to advance the fundamental understanding of how individual chemical and physical processes are coupled. We particularly focused on the chemical-mechanical coupling, and flow-mechanical coupling. We collected experimental and modeling data to determine the temporal and spatial scales of the coupled processes, which may lead to pore collapse caused by creep, activation of fractures and faults, chemically-induced fracture propagation, and self-focusing of scCO 2 flow.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Monte Carlo simulations of the diurnal variation in seismic detection rate of sporadic meteoroid impacts on the moon

The rate of detection of meteoroid impacts on the moon by the lunar seismic network shows a characteristic diurnal variation. Assuming that these meteoroids have a flux and a preimpact orbital distribution similar to that of fireballs observed by terrestrial camera networks, one can compute the expected diurnal variation for a given set of parameters that describe the seismic wave generation and transmission on the moon. An iterative process to match the theoretical variation with the observed one has led us to the following results: (1) the majority of the detected impact events occur within a closer range of the network than was believed earlier. This results in higher meteoroid flux estimates from lunar seismic data that agree with the terrestrially measured flux. (2) For meteoroid masses smaller than 1000 g, seismic amplitude is approximately proportional to the one-fifth power of the impact speed; for larger masses it is approximately proportional to the eight-fifth power, provided that the terrestrial meteor data used for analysis are not biased. (3) Seismic efficiency of meteoroids smaller than 1000 g is significantly less than that of large meteoroids. (4) Using orbits of fireballs that represent meteorites, we predict that the share of meteorites among the detected impacts is approximately 15 percent assuming that seismic efficiency of the high-density meteorites is the same as that of average meteoroids. A greatly increased seismic efficiency for these high-density objects is not likely.

Oberst, J.↗

Numerical modelling of impact seismic sources using the stress glut theory

SUMMARY Meteorite impacts have proved to be a significant source of seismic signal on the Moon, and have now been recorded on Mars by InSight seismometers. Understanding how impacts produce seismic signal is key to the interpretation of this unique data, and to improve their identification in continuous seismic records. Here, we use the seismic Representation Theorem, and particularly the stress glut theory, to model the seismic motion resulting from impact cratering. The source is described by equivalent forces, some resulting from the impactor momentum transfer, and others from the stress glut, which represents the mechanical effect of plasticity and non linear processes in the source region. We condense these equivalent forces into a point-source with a time-varying single force and nine-component moment tensor. This analytical representation bridges the gap between the complex dynamics of crater formation, and the linear point-source representation classically used in seismology. Using the multiphysics modelling software HOSS, we develop a method to compute the stress glut of an impact, and the associated point-source from hypervelocity impact simulations. For a vertical and an oblique impact at 1000 m s−1, we show that the moment tensor presents a significant deviatoric component. Hence, the source is not an ideal isotropic explosion contrary to previous assumptions, and draws closer to a double couple for the oblique impact. The contribution of the point force to the seismic signal appears negligible. We verify this model by comparing two signals: (1) HOSS is coupled to SPECFEM3D to propagate the near-source signal elastically to remote seismic stations; (2) the point-source model derived from the stress-glut theory is used to generate displacements at the same distance. The comparison shows that the point-source model is accurately simulating the low-frequency impact seismic waveform, and its seismic moment is in trend with Lunar and Martian impact data. High-frequencies discrepancies exist, which are partly related to finite-source effects, but might be further explained by the difference in mathematical framework between classical seismology and HOSS’ numerical modelling.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Seismic Rate Changes Associated with Seasonal, Annual, and Decadal Changes in the Cryosphere

Near the Bering Glacier Global Fiducial site in southern Alaska large cryospheric fluctuations occur in a region of upper crustal faulting and folding associated with collision and accretion of the Yakutat terrane. In this study we report constraints on seasonal, annual and decadal cryospheric changes estimated over the last decade from field, aircraft and satellite measurements, and we evaluate the influence of cryospheric changes on the background seismic rate. Multi-year images from the Bering Glacier global fiducial site are available since mid-2003 to constrain changes in extent of the Bering Glacier and to discern feature changes in the glacial surface. Starting around the same time, satellite gravimetric measurements from the Gravity Recovery and Climate experiment (GRACE) commenced. Large spatial-scale mass change calculated from the GRACE 1deg x 1deg mascon solution of Luthcke et al. [2012] indicate a general trend of annual ice mass loss for southern Alaska but with large, variable seasonal mass fluctuations. Since 2007, the station position of a continuous GPS site near Cape Yakataga (Alaska EarthScope PBO site, AB35) has been available as well. In addition to changes in the geodetic position due to tectonic motion, this GPS station shows large seasonal excursions in the detrended vertical and horizontal position components consistent with snow loading in the fall and winter and melt onset/mass decrease in the spring/summer. To better understand the timing of processes responsible for the onset of cryospheric mass loss documented in the GRACE data, we examined changes in the snow cover extent and the onset of melt in the spring. We calculated the surface displacements of the solid Earth and theoretical earthquake failure criteria associated with these annual and seasonal ice and snow changes using layered elastic half-space. Additionally, we compared the seismic rate (M>1.8) from a reference background time period against other time periods with variable ice or tectonic change characteristics to test the significance of seismic rate changes. Our earlier results suggest statistically significant changes in the background seismic rate associated with large seasonal mass changes. INDEX

Sauber-Rosenberg, Jeanne↗

Robust Carbon Dioxide Plume Imaging Using Joint Tomographic Inversion of Seismic Onset Time and Distributed Pressure and Temperature Measurements (Final Report)

We develop and demonstrate rapid and cost-effective methodologies for spatiotemporal tracking of CO2 plumes during geologic sequestration using joint inversion of seismic data and distributed pressure and temperature measurements. Key elements of our methodology are: (a) a computationally efficient approach to pressure and temperature propagation, (b) analysis of time lapse seismic data using a novel ‘seismic onset time’ approach to detect fluid front propagation, and (c) data assimilation and uncertainty assessment via joint inversion of pressure, temperature and time lapse seismic data, and (d) validating the numerical tomographic inversion using a CO2 injection demonstration projects, specifically data collected from the from the Petra Nova Parish Holdings CCUS project in the West Ranch Field, Texas and the Chester-16 reef CO2 injection site in Northern Michigan which is part of the DOE Midwestern Carbon Sequestration Project. The research team is led by Texas A&M University and includes Battelle as a subcontractor with support from Shell, Anadarko, Chevron and JX Nippon. A carbon dioxide (CO2) water-alternating-gas (WAG) pilot was conducted to gain insights into tertiary oil recovery potential via CO2 flood in the West Ranch Field as part of the Petra Nova project, the world’s largest post-combustion CO2 capture and utilization initiative. With a fluvial formation geology and large contrasts in permeability, this is a challenging and novel application of CO2 enhanced oil recovery (EOR). We build a predictive dynamic model of the subsurface that incorporates the multiphase and compositional data acquired during the pilot operation. The calibrated model is used for the carbon dioxide plume imaging. The study began with an initialization of the pilot sector model extracted from a calibrated full-field model. The pilot model calibration follows a two-step hierarchical workflow. First, we performed a large-scale update of the permeability distribution by integrating available bottomhole pressure and multiphase production data. In the second step, local permeability field is fine-tuned using a streamline-based method to match CO2 breakthrough times at the producers. The predictive capability of the calibrated model was verified through two blind validation tests: (1) the model showed good agreement with saturation logs acquired at two observation wells; and (2) the model reproduced the CO2 recovery as a fraction of the injected CO2. The use of seismic onset times has shown great promise for integrating near-continuous seismic surveys for updating geologic models. In this study, we analyze the impact of seismic survey frequency on the onset time approach aiming to extend the application of onset time to infrequent seismic surveys. In addition, we quantitatively examine the nonlinearity of the onset time method and compare it to the commonly used amplitude inversion method. We carry out a sensitivity analysis of seismic survey frequency based on the complete seismic survey data (over 175 surveys) of steam injection in a heavy oil reservoir (Peace River Unit) in Canada. Our results show that an adequate onset time map can be obtained from the infrequent seismic surveys by interpolation between seismic surveys as long as there is no change in the dominant underlying physics between the successive surveys. The study also shows that nonlinearity of the onset time method can be -smaller than that of the amplitude inversion method by several orders of magnitude. Application to the Brugge benchmark case shows that the onset time method obtains comparable permeability update as the traditional seismic amplitude inversion method with faster computation and improved convergence characteristics. We extend the streamline-based data integration approach to incorporate distributed temperature sensor (DTS) data using the concept of thermal tracer travel time. Then, a hierarchical workflow composed of evolutionary and streamline methods is employed to jointly history match the DTS and pressure data. Finally, CO2 saturation and streamline maps are used to visualize the CO2 plume movement during the sequestration process. The hierarchical workflow is applied to a carbon sequestration project in a carbonate reef reservoir within the Northern Niagaran Pinnacle Reef Trend in Michigan, USA. The monitoring data set consists of distributed temperature sensing (DTS) data acquired at the injection well and a monitoring well, flowing bottom-hole pressure data at the injection well, and time-lapse pressure measurements at several locations along the monitoring well. The history matching results indicate that the CO2 movement is mostly restricted to the intended zones of injection which is consistent with an independent warm-back analysis of the temperature data. In addition to employing simulation models and inverse methods for CO2 plume imaging, we also initialized a data-driven technology for detecting inter-well connectivity based on production and pressure data. Our machine-learning framework is built on the statistical recurrent unit (SRU) model and interprets well-based injection/production data into inter-well connectivity without relying on a geologic model. We test it on synthetic and field-scale CO2 EOR projects utilizing the water-alternating-gas (WAG) process. The validation of the proposed data-driven inter-well connectivity assessment is performed using synthetic data from simulation models where inter-well connectivity can be easily measured using the streamline-based flux allocation. The SRU model is shown to offer excellent prediction performance on the synthetic case. Despite significant measurement noise and frequent well shut-ins imposed in the field-scale case, the SRU model offers good prediction accuracy, the overall relative error of the phase production rates at most producers ranges from 10% to 30%. It is shown that the dominant connections identified by the data-driven method and streamline method are in close agreement. Texas A&M University, the lead organization in the project, was primarily responsible for the development of tomographic approaches for CO2 plume mapping in conjunction with distributed pressure, temperature and seismic onset time data. Battelle, as a subcontractor, was primarily responsible for the development of analytical and empirical methods for analyzing transient injection rate and pressure data from point/line sources such as injection and monitoring wells. An additional area of emphasis for Battelle was the use of machine learning for such tasks as inferring reservoir connectivity information from injection-production data, and identifying variable importance for machine learning-based proxy models developed from full-physics simulations. The two organizations also collaborated on the application of the tomographic inversion methodology for a field data set.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Using Laser Altimetry to Detect Topographic Change in Long Valley Caldera, California

Long Valley caldera California, is a site of extensive volcanism, persistent seismicity, and uplift of a resurgent dome, currently at a rate of about 3 cm/year. Airborne laser altimetry was used to determine the surface topography of the region in 1993. A repeat mission occurred in 1995. Three different laser altimeters were flown, dubbed ATLAS, SLICER and RASCAL. Data processing consists of the combination of the aircraft trajectory and attitude data with the laser range, the determination of an atmospheric delay, laser pulse timing errors, laser system biases, and data geolocation to obtain the position of the laser spot on the ground. Results showed that using the ATLAS and SLICER instruments, the elevation of an overflown lake is determined to precisions of 3.3 cm and 2.9 cm from altitudes of 500 m and 3 km above the ground, and about 10 cm using the RASCAL instrument from 500 m above ground. Comparison with tide gauge data showed the laser measurements are able to resolve centimeter-level changes in the lake elevation over time. Repeat pass analysis of tracks over flat surfaces indicate no systematic biases affect the measurement procedure of the ATLAS and SLICER instruments. Comparison of GPS and laser-derived elevations of easily-identifiable features in the caldera confirm the horizontal accuracy of the measurement is within the diameter of the laser footprint, and vertical accuracy is within the error inherent in the measurement. Crossover analysis shows that the standard error of the means at track intersection points within the caldera, and dome (i.e., where zero and close to the maximum amount of uplift is expected) are about I cm, indicating elevation change at the 3 cm/year level should be detectable. We demonstrate one of the powerful advantages of scanning laser altimetry over other remote sensing techniques; the straightforward creation of precise digital elevation maps of overflown terrain. Initial comparison of the 1993-1995 data indicates uplift occurred, but filtering is required to remove vegetation effects. Although research continues to utilize the full potential of laser altimetry data, the results constitute a successful demonstration that the technique may be used to perform geodetic monitoring of surface topographic change.

Hofton, M. A.↗

Using Laser Altimetry to Detect Topographic Change at Long Valley Caldera, California

Long Valley caldera, California, is a site of extensive volcanism, persistent seismicity, and uplift of a resurgent dome, currently at a rate of approximately 3 cm/year. Airborne laser altimetry was used to determine the surface topography of the region in 1993. A repeat mission occurred in 1995. Three different laser altimeters were flown, dubbed ATLAS, SLICER and RASCAL. Data processing consists of the combination of the aircraft trajectory and attitude data with the laser range, the determination of an atmospheric delay, laser pulse timing errors, laser system biases, and data geolocation to obtain the position of the laser spot on the ground. Results showed that using the ATLAS and SLICER instruments, the elevation of an overflown lake is determined to precisions of 3.3 cm and 2.9 cm from altitudes of 500 m and 3 km above the ground, and approximately 10 cm using the RASCAL instrument from 500 m above ground. Comparison with tide gauge data showed the laser measurements are able to resolve centimeter-level changes in the lake elevation over time. Repeat pass analysis of tracks over flat surfaces indicate no systematic biases affect the measurement procedure of the ATLAS and SLICER instruments. Comparison of GPS and laser-derived elevations of easily-identifiable features in the caldera confirm the horizontal accuracy of the measurement is within the diameter of the laser footprint, and vertical accuracy is within the error inherent in the measurement. Crossover analysis shows that the standard error of the means at track intersection points within the caldera and dome (i.e., where zero and close to the maximum amount of uplift is expected) are about 1 cm, indicating elevation change at the 3 cm/year level should be detectable. We demonstrate one of the powerful advantages of scanning laser altimetry over other remote sensing techniques; the straightforward creation of precise digital elevation maps of overflown terrain. Initial comparison of the 1993-1995 data indicates uplift occurred, but filtering is required to remove vegetation effects. Although research continues to utilize the full potential of laser altimetry data, the results constitute a successful demonstration that the technique may be used to perform geodetic monitoring of surface topographic change.

Hofton, M. A.↗

Coupled Investigation of Fracture Permeability Impact on Reservoir Stress and Seismic Slip Behavior (Final Technical Report)

Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) produce clean energy by circulating fluid through hot rock deep underground and bringing that heat to the surface to generate electricity. For this process to work reliably, fluids must be able to move efficiently through networks of natural or engineered fractures in the rock. Enhancing and maintaining subsurface permeability over time is essential for sustainable energy production. However, fluid injection changes the underground temperature, pressure, rock stress, and chemistry, which can alter permeability and sometimes trigger earthquakes. Predicting these interconnected processes remains a key challenge. To address this, we combined high-temperature laboratory experiments with high-fidelity simulations to better understand how fractures in geothermal reservoirs evolve over time. Our experiments measured how fractures respond to stress, slip, slip rate, and chemical reactions under geothermal conditions. These data were integrated into coupled thermal-hydrological-mechanical-chemical and earthquake (THMC+E) models tailored to the Utah FORGE site. The validated modeling framework improves predictions of reservoir performance and seismic response and helps guide operational decisions. This work reduces technical risk and strengthens the scientific foundation needed to make geothermal energy a reliable and scalable clean energy resource.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

The Role of Premagmatic Rifting in Shaping a Volcanic Continental Margin: An Example From the Eastern North American Margin

Both magmatic and tectonic processes contribute to the formation of volcanic continental margins. Such margins are thought to undergo extension across a narrow zone of lithospheric thinning (~100 km). New observations based on existing and reprocessed data from the Eastern North American Margin contradict this hypothesis. With ~64,000 km of 2-D seismic data tied to 40 wells combined with published refraction, deep reflection, receiver function, and onshore drilling efforts, we quantified along-strike variations in the distribution of rift structures, magmatism, crustal thickness, and early post-rift sedimentation under the shelf of Baltimore Canyon Trough (BCT), Long Island Platform, and Georges Bank Basin (GBB). Results indicate that BCT is narrow (80–120 km) with a sharp basement hinge and few rift basins. The seaward dipping reflectors (SDR) there extend ~50 km seaward of the hinge line. In contrast, the GBB is wide (~200 km), has many syn-rift structures, and the SDR there extend ~200 km seaward of the hinge line. Early post-rift depocenters at the GBB coincide with thinner crust suggesting “uniform” thinning of the entire lithosphere. Models for the formation of volcanic margins do not explain the wide structure of the GBB. We argue that crustal thinning of the BCT was closely associated with late syn-rift magmatism, whereas the broad thinning of the GBB segment predated magmatism. Correlation of these variations to crustal terranes of different compositions suggests that the inherited rheology determined the premagmatic response of the lithosphere to extension.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Detection of Local/Regional Events in Kuwait Using Next-Generation Detection Algorithms

Seismic networks around the world use conventional triggering algorithms to detect seismic signals in order to locate local/regional seismic events. Kuwait National Seismological Network (KNSN) of Kuwait Institute of Scientific Research (KISR) is operating seven broad-band and short-period three-component stations in Kuwait. The network is equipped with Nanometrics digitizers and uses Antelope and Guralp acquisition software for processing and archiving the data. In this study, we selected 10 days of archived hourly-segmented continuous data of five stations (Figure 1) and 250 days of continuous recording at MIB. For the temporary deployment our selection criteria was based on KNSN catalog intensity for the period of time we test the method. An autonomous event detection and clustering framework is employed to test a more complete catalog of this short period of time. The goal is to illustrate the effectiveness of the technique and pursue the framework for longer period of time.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗