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NASA NTRS2006

Model-Based Safety Analysis

System safety analysis techniques are well established and are used extensively during the design of safety-critical systems. Despite this, most of the techniques are highly subjective and dependent on the skill of the practitioner. Since these analyses are usually based on an informal system model, it is unlikely that they will be complete, consistent, and error free. In fact, the lack of precise models of the system architecture and its failure modes often forces the safety analysts to devote much of their effort to gathering architectural details about the system behavior from several sources and embedding this information in the safety artifacts such as the fault trees. This report describes Model-Based Safety Analysis, an approach in which the system and safety engineers share a common system model created using a model-based development process. By extending the system model with a fault model as well as relevant portions of the physical system to be controlled, automated support can be provided for much of the safety analysis. We believe that by using a common model for both system and safety engineering and automating parts of the safety analysis, we can both reduce the cost and improve the quality of the safety analysis. Here we present our vision of model-based safety analysis and discuss the advantages and challenges in making this approach practical.

Joshi, Anjali↗

NASA NTRS1991

Fault-tolerant multichannel demultiplexer subsystems

Fault tolerance in future processing and switching communication satellites is addressed by showing new methods for detecting hardware failures in the first major subsystem, the multichannel demultiplexer. An efficient method for demultiplexing frequency slotted channels uses multirate filter banks which contain fast Fourier transform processing. All numerical processing is performed at a lower rate commensurate with the small bandwidth of each bandbase channel. The integrity of the demultiplexing operations is protected by using real number convolutional codes to compute comparable parity values which detect errors at the data sample level. High rate, systematic convolutional codes produce parity values at a much reduced rate, and protection is achieved by generating parity values in two ways and comparing them. Parity values corresponding to each output channel are generated in parallel by a subsystem, operating even slower and in parallel with the demultiplexer that is virtually identical to the original structure. These parity calculations may be time shared with the same processing resources because they are so similar.

Redinbo, Robert↗

NASA NTRS2010

Mini-TES Observations of Comanche Carbonate and Its Distribution

The discovery by the Spirit rover of outcrops rich in Mg-Fe carbonate [Morris et al., 2010] represents another manifestation of a diverse aqueous history in Gusev crater. In 2005, observations by the Moessbauer spectrometer (MB) on outcrops dubbed Comanche provided initial indication of Fe-Mg carbonate that was subsequently supported by analysis of elemental data from the Alpha Particle X-ray Spectrometer (APXS). The recognition of a carbonate component in thermal infrared spectra measured by the Miniature Thermal Emission Spectrometer (Mini-TES) was significantly delayed due to dust contamination of the instrument's optics. With the implementation of a viable dust correction, the Comanche spectra were revisited and presented clear and compelling evidence for a Mg-Fe carbonate component that could be as much as a third of the total mineral abundance. The data from all three instruments in combination are best matched by Mg-Fe carbonate with an abundance of 16-34 wt%. Mini-TES spectra were acquired for 12 targets at various locations on the Comanche (4-5 m long) and Comanche Spur (1-2 m long) outcrops, the latter being the location of the MB and APXS measurements. The two outcrops are spectrally comparable and share similar morphology and texture based on color images from the Panoramic Camera (Pancam). The highest quality Mini-TES spectrum comes from the larger Comanche outcrop on a target named Saupitty. Linear least squares modeling of the Saupitty spectrum employed a library of laboratory spectra tailored for consistency with the APXS and MB data and included spectra representing Martian dust, a slope spectrum to account for any temperature determination errors, and a blackbody spectrum to account for differences in spectral contrast between the laboratory and Mini-TES spectrum. Successful modeling of the Comanche Saupitty spectrum required one or more carbonate phases to obtain a good fit. Excluding all carbonates from the full starting library more than doubled the root-mean-squared error of the model fit (0.147% vs. 0.299%). Because Mg-Fe carbonate and Ca-Mg carbonate (dolomite) are so spectrally similar over the range used for modeling, both provide a comparable fit. However, Carich carbonates like dolomite are precluded based on APXS data and are inconsistent with MB results. The Comanche carbonate rocks are stratigraphically above a set of olivine-rich volcaniclastic rocks known as Algonquin class that mantle the Haskin Ridge feature of the Columbia Hills. Based on ~50 Mini-TES observations, the Comanche outcrops are the only rocks that host abundant carbonate. However, a target at the base of the larger Comanche outcrop appears spectrally transitional between the carbonate and olivine units. This transitional spectral character applies to additional outcrops a few 10s of meters away from Comanche that also appear stratigraphically transitional. Additional work will attempt to establish whether we are seeing an alteration horizon or depositional unit associated with the emplacement Comanche carbonate.

Ruff, Steven W.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Interoperable End-To-End Space Communications Architecture Using CCSDS Building Blocks

End-to-end space communication architectures must connect system elements that may be in space, on the ground in mission operations centers, or are shared assets such as ground communications stations. End-to-end connectivity involves space communications over RF links, but also cross support services, terrestrial network circuits, and a variety of application layer protocols for commanding, telemetry, and mission operations. CCSDS has developed a large suite of interoperable, and cross-supportable, protocols for these purposes. Each of these defines a specific “layer” of functionality, such as: RF modulation, space link error coding, cross support frame delivery, or network layer routing. CCSDS has recently published a Space Communication Cross Support Architecture Requirements Document (SCCS-ARD) that describes how many of these standards fit together and how they are intended to be used. This paper provides an overview of this document, presented so as to explain the concepts so that others may use them. These concepts will be described from several key viewpoints.

Shames, Peter M.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Satellite Mapping of PM2.5 Episodes in the Wintertime San Joaquin Valley: A "Static" Model Using Column Water Vapor

The use of satellite Aerosol Optical Thickness (AOT) from imaging spectrometers has been successful in quantifying and mapping high PM2.5 (particulate matter mass <2.5Âµm diameter) episodes for pollution abatement and health studies. However, some regions have high PM2.5 but poor estimation success. The challenges in using Aerosol Optical Thickness (AOT) from imaging spectrometers to characterize PM2.5 worldwide was especially evident in the wintertime San Joaquin Valley (SJV). The SJV's attendant difficulties of high-albedo surfaces and very shallow, variable vertical mixing also occur in other significantly polluted regions around the world. We report on more accurate PM2.5 maps for the whole-winter period in the SJV, Nov 14, 2012?Dec 11, 2013. Intensive measurements by including NASA aircraft were made for several weeks in that winter, the DISCOVER-AQ California mission.We found success with a relatively simple method based on calibration and checking with surface monitors and a characterization of vertical mixing, and incorporating specific understandings of the region's climatology. We estimate PM2.5 to within ~7Âµgm?3 RMSE and with R values of ~0.9, based on remotely sensed MAIAC (Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction) observations, and that certain further work will improve that accuracy. Mapping is at 1km resolution. This allows a time sequence of mapped aerosols at 1km for cloud-free days. We describe our technique as a "static estimation". Estimation procedures like this one, not dependent on well-mapped source strengths or on transport error, should help full source-driven simulations by deconstructing processes. They also provide a rapid method to create a long-term climatology.Essential features of the technique are (a) daily calibration of the AOT to PM2.5 using available surface monitors, and (b) characterization of mixed-layer dilution using column water vapor (CWV, otherwise "precipitable water"). We noted that on multi-day timescales both water vapor and particles share near-surface sources and both fall to very low values with altitude; indeed, both are largely removed by precipitation. The existence of layers of H2O or aerosol not within the mixed layer adds complexity, but mixed-effects statistical regression captures essential proportionality of PM2.5 and the ratio variable (AOT/CWV). Accuracy is much higher than previous statistical models, and can be extended to the whole Aqua-satellite data record. The maps and time-series we show suggest a repeated pattern for large valleys like the SJV ? progressive stabilization of the mixing height after frontal passages: PM2.5 is somewhat more determined by day-by-day changes in mixing than it is by the progressive accumulation of pollutants (revealed as increasing AOT).

Chatfield, Robert B.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Interoperable End-To-End Space Communications Architectures Using CCSDS Building Blocks

Shames, Peter M.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Genomic Diversity Evaluation of Populus trichocarpa Germplasm for Rare Variant Genetic Association Studies

Genome-wide association studies are powerful tools to elucidate the genome-to-phenome relationship. In order to explain most of the observed heritability of a phenotypic trait, a sufficient number of individuals and a large set of genetic variants must be examined. The development of high-throughput technologies and cost-efficient resequencing of complete genomes have enabled the genome-wide identification of genetic variation at large scale. As such, almost all existing genetic variation becomes available, and it is now possible to identify rare genetic variants in a population sample. Rare genetic variants that were usually filtered out in most genetic association studies are the most numerous genetic variations across genomes and hold great potential to explain a significant part of the missing heritability observed in association studies. Rare genetic variants must be identified with high confidence, as they can easily be confounded with sequencing errors. In this study, we used a pre-filtered data set of 1,014 pure Populus trichocarpa entire genomes to identify rare and common small genetic variants across individual genomes. We compared variant calls between Platypus and HaplotypeCaller pipelines, and we further applied strict quality filters for improved genetic variant identification. Finally, we only retained genetic variants that were identified by both variant callers increasing calling confidence. Based on these shared variants and after stringent quality filtering, we found high genomic diversity in P. trichocarpa germplasm, with 7.4 million small genetic variants. Importantly, 377k non-synonymous variants (5% of the total) were uncovered. We highlight the importance of genomic diversity and the potential of rare defective genetic variants in explaining a significant portion of P. trichocarpa's phenotypic variability in association genetics. The ultimate goal is to associate both rare and common alleles with poplar's wood quality traits to support selective breeding for an improved bioenergy feedstock.

Genetics & Heredity↗

NASA NTRS1985

Cockpit automation - In need of a philosophy

Concern has been expressed over the rapid development and deployment of automatic devices in transport aircraft, due mainly to the human interface and particularly the role of automation in inducing human error. The paper discusses the need for coherent philosophies of automation, and proposes several approaches: (1) flight management by exception, which states that as long as a crew stays within the bounds of regulations, air traffic control and flight safety, it may fly as it sees fit; (2) exceptions by forecasting, where the use of forecasting models would predict boundary penetration, rather than waiting for it to happen; (3) goal-sharing, where a computer is informed of overall goals, and subsequently has the capability of checking inputs and aircraft position for consistency with the overall goal or intentions; and (4) artificial intelligence and expert systems, where intelligent machines could mimic human reason.

Wiener, E. L.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Ensuring correct rollback recovery in distributed shared memory systems

Distributed shared memory (DSM) implemented on a cluster of workstations is an increasingly attractive platform for executing parallel scientific applications. Checkpointing and rollback techniques can be used in such a system to allow the computation to progress in spite of the temporary failure of one or more processing nodes. This paper presents the design of an independent checkpointing method for DSM that takes advantage of DSM's specific properties to reduce error-free and rollback overhead. The scheme reduces the dependencies that need to be considered for correct rollback to those resulting from transfers of pages. Furthermore, in-transit messages can be recovered without the use of logging. We extend the scheme to a DSM implementation using lazy release consistency, where the frequency of dependencies is further reduced.

Janssens, Bob↗

DOE OSTI2020

Automated Data Review of Analytical Laboratory Results at Los Alamos National Laboratory - 20299

Newport News Nuclear BWXT-Los Alamos, LLC (N3B) collects samples in support of the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Office of Environmental Management (EM) Los Alamos Legacy Cleanup Contract (LLCC). N3B receives and reviews over 1.6 million sample data points annually in support of various ongoing environmental monitoring and remediation projects of the LLCC. N3B must demonstrate and document that reported external analytical laboratory data produced for the LLCC are of sufficient quality to fulfill their intended purpose and to support defensible decision making as described in EPA QA/G4 Guidance for the Data Quality Objectives Process 1994. In 2018, N3B assumed management of the LLCC along with the Environmental Information Management (EIM) database that contains all historical and current environmental data associated with the LLCC. The entire EIM database is shared between N3B, Triad National Security, LLC (Triad), and New Mexico Environment Department (NMED). These three parties jointly manage the database, its configuration, and changes / updates. All environmental data that are entered into EIM are updated and available, on a daily basis, in the linked public database Intellus New Mexico (Intellus). The quality and defensibility of the environmental data generated from sampling activities is a key component of an effective remediation process. Providing quality data is accomplished through a data assessment process that includes examination, verification, and validation. Examination is the assessment of completeness of the deliverables, identification of any reporting errors, and determining the usability of the data based on the laboratory's evaluation of its data as described in the case narrative received with the data. Verification consists of an evaluation of the Electronic Data Deliverables (EDD) data report to determine the extent to which the external analytical laboratories met method and contract-specific quality control and reporting requirements. Validation consists of determining the data quality and the extent to which the external analytical laboratories accurately and completely reported all sample and quality control results and satisfied all contract requirements. EIM contains an automatic Data Validation Module which performs automated data review (DVM ADR). DVM ADR is a tool to assist in the validation process. When DVM ADR is used in conjunction with manual examination of sample data packages, the combination of the two will meet and exceed the requirements of verification. N3B recognized an opportunity for process improvement, focusing on DVM ADR configuration and enhancements in EIM. Testing EIM's configuration provided proof of the DVM ADR's capabilities and flexibility to accurately perform routine data checks based on analytical methods and regulatory requirements. In addition, the DVM ADR module was improved through enhancements for all analytes, particularly upgrades for radiochemistry data. Extensive testing of the DVM ADR module occurred using EDDs from actual laboratory analyses on the EIM testing site. During this process, N3B manipulated EDD information to verify that the actual outcomes matched the expected outcomes. The results of this testing were shared with the database architects, and configuration improvements were identified to address these results. During this process, N3B identified that the radiochemical DVM ADR capabilities were underutilized, and so enhanced the DVM ADR functionality with respect to radioanalytical assessment. N3B environmental data uploads to Intellus on a daily basis from EIM, once the analytical data undergoes examination and verification. As such, it is important to have a high level of confidence in the quality and defensibility of the data. The process of manual examination, along with the DVM ADR, in conjunction with full validation of a percentage the data specified through the Data Quality Objectives greatly increases efficiency of data review and confidence level of the quality of the data, and gives the project managers, governmental offices, and the public expedited access to high-quality data. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2022

An Analysis of PNM's Renewable Reserve Requirements to Meet New Mexico's Decarbonization Goals

Over the next three years, the Public Service Company of New Mexico (PNM) plans to increase utility-scale solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity from today’s roughly 330MW to about 1600MW. This massive increase in variable generation—from about 15% to 75% of peak load—will require changes in how PNM operates their system. We characterize the 5 and 30-minute solar and wind forecast errors that the system is likely to experience in order to determine the level of reserves needed to counteract such events. Our focus in this study is on negative forecast error (in other words, shortfalls relative to forecast) – whereas excess variable generation can be curtailed if needed, a shortfall must be compensated for to avoid loss of load. Calculating forecast error requires the use of the same forecasting methods that PNM uses or a reasonable approximation thereof. For wind, we use a persistence forecast on actual 5-minute 2019 wind output data (scaled up to reflect the amount of wind capacity planned for 2025). For solar, we use a formula incorporating the clear sky index (CSI) for the forecast. As the solar on the grid now is a small fraction of what is planned for 2025, we generated 5-minute solar data using 2019 weather inputs. We find that to handle 99.9% of the 5-minute negative forecast errors, a maximum of 275MW of variable generation reserve during daylight hours, and a maximum of 75MW during non-daylight hours, should be sufficient. Note that this variable generation reserve is an additional reserve category that specifies reserves over and above what are currently carried for contingency reserve. This would require a significant increase in reserve relative to what PNM currently carries or can call upon from other utilities per reserve sharing agreements. This variable generation reserve specification may overestimate the actual level needed to deal with PNM’s planned variable generation in 2025. The forecasting methodologies used in this study likely underperform PNM’s forecasting – and better forecasting allows for less reserve. To obtain more precise estimates, it is necessary to consider load and use the same forecasting inputs and methods used by PNM.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

How Improved Forecasting Can Increase the Bulk Power System Value of Price-Responsive Electric Vehicle Managed Charging

Personal light-duty vehicle (LDV) electric vehicle managed charging (EVMC) can reduce power system costs by better aligning electric vehicle (EV) charging with locations and times of low energy cost or infrastructure use. The need to coordinate charging demand across thousands to millions of vehicles while preserving mobility service is a barrier to realizing the value of EVMC. Price-responsive dispatch mechanisms like time-of-use rates (TOU) and hourly real-time prices (RTP) are attractive compared to direct load control (DLC) because they only require one-way communications and local controls. However, increasing participation in price responsive mechanisms can induce costly-to-serve spikes in load and otherwise increase, rather than decrease, production costs. We quantify the ability of improved EVMC forecasting to sustain savings from price responsive mechanisms beyond the limit of 14% of LDVs actively participating observed in previous work. Perfect forecasting of price-responsive EV load makes TOU and RTP value-competitive with a low-error DLC formulation with up to 27% (within-week flexibility) to 45% or more (within-session flexibility) of LDVs participating in EVMC in an envisioned New England power system with 84% clean energy. Additional costs of implementing DLC should be no more than tens of dollars per vehicle-year if DLC is to be value-competitive with accurately forecast price-responsive EVMC for double-digit percentage shares of LDVs participating.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Planned Investigations to Address Acute Central Nervous System Effects of Space Radiation Exposure with Human Performance Data

This work intends to generate evidence of acute, incremental human performance decrement similar to that due to space radiation andits impacts on the brain, to accompany ongoing human performance modeling work. The planned work will explore the boundaries of human behavioral and performance decrement after exposure to stress, which may be expected based in part on rodent responses found afterexposure to ionizing radiation. The collection of evidence via simulation studies can characterize real human errors toward determining what stress levels lead to significantly-low levels of performance (below permissible outcome limits) which would imperilmission accomplishment. If mission-relevant animal-study-linked tasks are used, human and animal performance levels may be aligned to enable quantitative assignment of permissible exposure limits based on animal exposure studies. Ultimately, a transfer function between the performances of exposed rodents and humans under stress can be developed using shared impairment mechanisms.

human performance↗

DOE OSTI2015

Determination of Critical Experiment Correlations Using the Sampler Sequence Within SCALE 6.2

The validation of neutron transport methods used in nuclear criticality safety analyses is required by consensus American National Standards Institute/American Nuclear Society (ANSI/ANS) standards. In the last decade, there has been an increased interest in correlations among critical experiments used in validation that have shared physical attributes and which impact the independence of each measurement. The statistical methods included in many of the frequently cited guidance documents on performing validation calculations incorporate the assumption that all individual measurements are independent, so little guidance is available to practitioners on the topic. Typical guidance includes recommendations to select experiments from multiple facilities and experiment series in an attempt to minimize the impact of correlations or common-cause errors in experiments. Recent efforts have been made both to determine the magnitude of such correlations between experiments and to develop and apply methods for adjusting the bias and bias uncertainty to account for the correlations. This paper describes recent work performed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory using the Sampler sequence from the SCALE code system to develop experimental correlations using a Monte Carlo sampling technique. Sampler will be available for the first time with the release of SCALE 6.2, and a brief introduction to the methods used to calculate experiment correlations within this new sequence is presented in this paper. Techniques to utilize these correlations in the establishment of upper subcritical limits are the subject of a companion paper and will not be discussed here. Example experimental uncertainties and correlation coefficients are presented for a variety of low-enriched uranium water-moderated lattice experiments selected for use in a benchmark exercise by the Working Party on Nuclear Criticality Safety Subgroup on Uncertainty Analysis in Criticality Safety Analyses. The results include studies on the effect of fuel rod pitch on the correlations, and some observations are also made regarding difficulties in determining experimental correlations using the Monte Carlo sampling technique.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Advanced Power-Hardware-in-the-Loop Evaluation of Inverter-Based Resources (IBRs)

Power-hardware-in-the-loop evaluation of IBRs has become more and more important as it provides reliable testing results to investigate the real responses of inverters with interconnected systems. A successful laboratory PHIL testing gives confidence of the hardware system to be deployed and de-risk technology integration prior to field deployment. So far, there are two important applications for PHIL evaluation: (1) test stability and functionality of large utility inverters into the system when it interconnects to the distribution systems/microgrids; and (2) test the collective grid service that inverters can provide to the grid. For the first application, the PHIL evaluation has high requirements for the stability and accuracy of the PHIL interface as the close-loop in digital real time simulator (DRTS) should replicate the actual current and voltage dynamics in the inverter. This is challenging because of the delays, sensing errors, nonlinearities of inverters, and hardware bandwidth limitations of the elements in the HIL loop. For the second application, multiple inverters will be tested resulting in multiple PCCs, which naturally causes competing dynamics and oscillations among hardware inverters if traditional PHIL interface is used. Therefore, new PHIL interface should be developed to compromise between stability and accuracy and represent the dispatched grid services for the hardware inverters. In this presentation, we will share our latest work in developing PHIL interface in these two applications to address the two key challenges.

DERMS↗

DOE OSTI2015

Determination of critical experiment correlations using the sampler sequence within scale 6.2 - 14602

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

International collaboration framework for the calculation of performance loss rates: Data quality, benchmarks, and trends (towards a uniform methodology)

Abstract The IEA PVPS Task 13 group, experts who focus on photovoltaic performance, operation, and reliability from several leading R&D centers, universities, and industrial companies, is developing a framework for the calculation of performance loss rates of a large number of commercial and research photovoltaic (PV) power plants and their related weather data coming across various climatic zones. The general steps to calculate the performance loss rate are (i) input data cleaning and grading; (ii) data filtering; (iii) performance metric selection, corrections, and aggregation; and finally, (iv) application of a statistical modeling method to determine the performance loss rate value. In this study, several high‐quality power and irradiance datasets have been shared, and the participants of the study were asked to calculate the performance loss rate of each individual system using their preferred methodologies. The data are used for benchmarking activities and to define capabilities and uncertainties of all the various methods. The combination of data filtering, metrics (performance ratio or power based), and statistical modeling methods are benchmarked in terms of (i) their deviation from the average value and (ii) their uncertainty, standard error, and confidence intervals. It was observed that careful data filtering is an essential foundation for reliable performance loss rate calculations. Furthermore, the selection of the calculation steps filter/metric/statistical method is highly dependent on one another, and the steps should not be assessed individually.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS2004

The Origin and Evolution of Deep Plasmaspheric Notches

Deep plasmaspheric notches can extend over more than 2 RE in radial distance and 3 hours MLT in the magnetic equatorial plane. They appear to be among the largest evacuated features in the exterior plasmaspheric boundary. They can last for days and exhibit varying structure. It appears that low-density channels resulting from the entrainment of the plasmaspheric convection plume during storm-time recovery share the same origin as notches. Notches rather than channels result from differences in storm- time conditions. Strong convection tends to result in low-density channels, while weaker convection and limited erosion results in notches. Eighteen events in 2000 have been analyzed. Among these events, notches were found to drift as slowly as 72% of corotation. In only one case was a notch found to drift at the corotation rate within measurement error. On average, notches drift at about 2 1.5 hours per day or 90% of the co-rotational rate. Notches also sometimes exhibit an interior structure that appears as an extended prominence of dense plasma, which forms a W-like feature in IMAGEEUV images when viewed from Earth-center. Modeling suggests such features may be caused by small-scale potential structures that result from the localized injection of ring current plasma. Plasma filling rates during recovery and drainage during a minor storm are reported.

Gallagher, D. L.↗