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DOE OSTI2021

Improving Prediction of Surface Solar Irradiance Variability by Integrating Observed Cloud Characteristics and Machine Learning

A 5-year, 1-minute resolution observational dataset of clouds and solar radiation was produced that includes two metrics of the variability in surface solar irradiance due to cloud type and fractional sky cover. Multiple regression models were trained to fit observations of surface solar irradiance variability from those two cloud property predictors. We found that ensemble tree-based methods, Random Forest and Gradient Boosting Machine, have the least overfitting issues and showed the best performance with an R2 of 0.42. While the observational data trained in this study was only from one site, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) site in Oklahoma, initial comparisons of the seasonality of the statistics suggest that these results are relatively weather regime independent; the generality of such a finding across sites will be tested in future work. The observational data and developed machine learning model are being used to create a numerical weather prediction model parameterization to enable day-ahead solar variability prediction in a computationally efficient way. This is a first step towards creating a new paradigm of predicting day-ahead variability with the potential to provide a new tool to improve grid operation, planning, and resilience.

Riihimaki, Laura↗

DOE OSTI2020

Clear Sky Irradiance Year-to-Year Variations and Trends: Preprint

Solar radiation data for seven SURFRAD stations for the period 1996-2018 show an increase in irradiance under clear skies over time, with an interannual variability of the increase. A popular implementation of a clear sky model provided modeled irradiances for comparison with the SURFRAD data under conditions screened for clear skies. The use of the clear sky model, which did not consider year-to-year variances in atmospheric turbidity, was found problematic for resolving small changes in irradiance important for determining PV system degradation over three or five years, but less problematic for a period of ten years.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗

DOE OSTI2022

Optimizing the Operational Parameters of an Electrochemical Purification Cell for Corrosion Mitigation in CSP Plants During Operation: Preprint

To make concentrating solar power (CSP) cost-competitive, the next generation of CSP plants will increase efficiency by operating at a higher temperature, which will require a new thermal energy storage material. One option for the thermal energy storage material is a ternary chloride salt that is stable at the temperatures required, but reacts easily with the atmosphere to form MgOHCl, a corrosive impurity. If left unchecked, this impurity will corrode the containment alloys, potentially leading to dangerous spills. We are working to design an electrochemical purification cell to remove MgOHCl from the molten chloride salt during CSP plant operation. In this paper, we use predictive modeling to assess the rate at which purification must occur. Additionally, we analyze possible process flow pathways for the molten chloride salts. Ultimately, we determine that implementation of a single reactor through which all chloride salts flow is the most efficient design to reduce impurity concentration below 0.1 mol % impurity.

concentrating solar power↗

DOE OSTI2022

Moderate spectral resolution solar irradiance measurements, aerosol optical depth, and solar transmission, from 360 to 1070 nm, using the refurbished rotating shadow band spectroradiometer (RSS)

Abstract. This paper reports on a third-generation rotating shadow band spectroradiometer (RSS) used to measure global and diffuse horizontal plus direct normal irradiances and transmissions at 1002 wavelengths between 360 and 1070 nm. The prism-dispersed spectral data are from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains site in north-central Oklahoma (36.605∘ N, 97.486∘ W) and cover dates between August 2009 and February 2014. The refurbished RSS isolates the detector in a vacuum chamber with pressures near 10−7 torr. This prevents the deposition of outgassed vapors from the interior of the spectrometer shell on the cooled detector that affected the operation of the first commercial RSS. Methods for (1) ensuring the correct wavelength registration of the data and (2) deriving extraterrestrial responses over the entire spectrum, including throughout strong water vapor and oxygen bands, are described. The resulting data produced are archived as ARM data records and include cloud-screened aerosol optical depths, spectral irradiances and direct normal solar transmission, as well as normalized diffuse and global irradiances.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Pressure drop and heat transfer characteristics of nitrate salt and supercritical CO 2 in a diffusion-bonded heat exchanger

A lab-scale 316/L stainless steel diffusion-bonded heat exchanger was examined within a coupled high-temperature test facility consisting of an atmospheric-pressure nitrate salt loop and a supercritical carbon dioxide (sCO 2 ) loop operating between 10 and 16 MPa. Pressure loss measurements collected for flow rates up to 0.55 kg/s of Solar Salt and up to 0.6 kg/s of carbon dioxide were used to generate friction factor correlations for the respective circular and semicircular zig-zag flow passages. Heat transfer measurements were also performed over a wide range of conditions to produce Nusselt correlations for the CO 2 and nitrate salt geometries. The Nusselt number is deduced from a heat transfer resistance network and overall conductance measurements collected across the operating envelope of the coupled sCO 2 – nitrate salt test facility. The CO 2 side correlation showed excellent agreement with existing correlations in the literature. Further, the salt side, having nearly circular channels with a different zig-zag angle and hydraulic diameter, yielded a new correlation applicable to the laminar flow regime. To examine the similitude of the friction correlations, pressure drop testing with water was performed on both sides of the component as well. Finally, results from non-destructive examination are discussed to provide insights regarding inspection methods and draining performance of high-temperature liquids in compact heat exchangers.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Improved representation of black carbon mixing structures suggests stronger direct radiative heating

Black carbon significantly influences the Earth system because of its strong solar radiation absorption. However, its direct radiative effect remains poorly understood in current climate models, partly because current climate models oversimplify the diverse structures formed when black carbon mixes with other atmospheric components. Here we show that incorporating more realistic, multi-mixing-structure representations of black carbon increases the direct radiative effect. We find that aged black carbon particles, with thicker coatings and higher embedded fractions, enhance the direct radiative effect more efficiently. Using machine learning alongside the Community Earth System Model, we show that the direct radiative effect at the top of the atmosphere in regions with heavy black carbon pollution is 31.6% greater when multi-mixing structures are considered. These findings highlight the importance of modeling complex mixing structures of particle-resolved black carbon to accurately capture their warming impacts on global atmosphere, particularly in highly polluted regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

An underestimated negative cloud feedback from cloud lifetime changes

As the atmosphere warms, part of the cloud population shifts from ice and mixed phase (“cold”) to liquid (“warm”) clouds. Because warm clouds are more reflective and longerlived, this phase change reduces the solar flux absorbed by Earth and constitutes a negative radiative feedback. This cooling feedback is weaker in CMIP6 than in CMIP5, contributing to greater greenhouse warming. While this change is often attributed to improvements in simulated cloud phase, another model bias persists: warm clouds precipitate too readily, potentially leading to underestimated negative lifetime feedbacks. In this work, we modify a climate model to better simulate warm rain probability and find it exhibits a cloud lifetime feedback nearly three times larger than the default model. This suggests model errors in cloud-precipitation processes may bias cloud feedbacks as much as CMIP5–CMIP6 climate sensitivity differences. Reliable climate model projections therefore require improved cloud process realism guided by process-oriented observations and observational constraints.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

The Galactic Distribution of Phosphorus: A Survey of 163 Disk and Halo Stars*

Phosphorus (P) is a critical element for life on Earth, yet the cosmic production sites of P are relatively uncertain. To understand how P has evolved in the solar neighborhood, we measured abundances for 163 FGK stars over a range of –1.09 < [Fe/H] < 0.47 using observations from the Habitable-zone Planet Finder instrument on the Hobby–Eberly Telescope. Atmospheric parameters were calculated by fitting a combination of astrometry, photometry, and Fe I line equivalent widths. Phosphorus abundances were measured by matching synthetic spectra to a P I feature at 10529.52 Å. Our [P/Fe] ratios show that chemical evolution models generally underpredict P over the observed metallicity range. Additionally, we find that the [P/Fe] differs by ~0.1 dex between thin disk and thick disk stars that were identified with kinematics. The P abundances were compared with α-elements, iron-peak, odd-Z, and s-process elements, and we found that the evolution of P in the disk most strongly resembles that of the α-elements. We also find that molar P/C and N/C ratios for our sample match the scatter seen from other abundance studies. Finally, we measure a [P/Fe] = 0.09 ± 0.1 ratio in one low-α halo star and probable Gaia–Sausage–Enceladus member, an abundance ratio ~0.3–0.5 dex lower than the other Milky Way disk and halo stars at similar metallicities. Overall, we find that P is likely most significantly produced by massive stars in core-collapse supernovae, based on the largest P abundance survey to date.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Electrochemical Mitigation of Corrosion in Concentrated Solar Power Systems

chloride salts↗

DOE OSTI2023

Grassland carbon-water cycling is minimally impacted by a photovoltaic array

Agrivoltaic systems, whereby photovoltaic arrays are co-located with crop or forage production, can alleviate the tension between expanding solar development and loss of agricultural land. However, the ecological ramifications of these arrays are poorly known. We used field measurements and a plant hydraulic model to quantify carbon-water cycling in a semi-arid C 3 perennial grassland growing beneath a single-axis tracking solar array in Colorado, USA. Although the agrivoltaic array reduced light availability by 38%, net photosynthesis and aboveground net primary productivity were reduced by only 6–7% while evapotranspiration decreased by 1.3%. The minimal changes in carbon-water cycling occurred largely because plant photosynthetic traits underneath the panels changed to take advantage of the dynamic shading environment. Our results indicate that agrivoltaic systems can serve as a scalable way to expand solar energy production while maintaining ecosystem function in managed grasslands, especially in climates where water is more limiting than light.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Measuring Atmospheric Gas Using Small Satellites (Final Report)

The research focused on demonstrating that a small satellite (< 10 kg) is able to provide useable data in support of stratospheric circulation and broader atmospheric measurement generally thought to required large, lengthy and high cost space programs. The research goals targeting enabling CubeSats to serve as science platforms including low-cost communication infrastructure, science enabling solar panels and a ruggedized small form factor science instrument were highly successful with demonstrated on-orbit results. The collection of science data on-orbit was not successful due to a high tumbling rate impacted to the spacecraft at time of release on orbit, preventing reliable solar charging and leading to premature ending of the mission. The successes acquired on orbit will act as a springboard for further research and space projects at LLNL. Several research groups (both private and government) have expressed interest in the area of this research that proved successful such as the solar panels and iridium crosslink as well as the LLNL developed CubeSat standard.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Clear Sky Irradiance Year-to-Year Variations and Trends

Solar radiation data for seven SURFRAD stations for the period 1996-2018 show an increase in irradiance under clear skies over the period, but the increase was not constant and shorter periods may have even experienced decreases in irradiance. A popular implementation of a clear sky model provided modeled irradiances for comparison with the SURFRAD data under conditions screened for clear skies. The use of the clear sky model, which did not consider year-to-year variances in atmospheric turbidity, was found problematic for resolving small changes in irradiance important for determining PV system degradation over three or five years, but less problematic for a period of ten years.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗

DOE OSTI2021

Albedo Data Sets for Bifacial PV Systems

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗

DOE OSTI2020

SCOPE: Spectral cloud optical property estimation using real-time GOES-R longwave imagery

The output of ground-based, solar power generation systems is strongly dependent on cloud cover, which is the main contributor to solar power variability and uncertainty. Cloud optical properties are typically over-simplified in forecasting applications due to the lack of realtime, accurate estimates. In this work, we introduce a method, the Spectral Cloud Optical Property Estimation (SCOPE), for estimating cloud optical properties directly from high-resolution (5-min, 2 km) imagery from Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES)-R, which is the newest generation of the GOES system. The SCOPE method couples a two-stream, spectrally resolved radiative model with the longwave GOES-R sensor output to simultaneously estimate the cloud optical depth, cloud top height, and cloud thickness during both day and night at 5-min intervals. The accuracy of SCOPE is evaluated using one year (2018) of downwelling longwave (DLW) radiation measurements from the Surface Radiation Budget Network, which consists of seven sites spread across climatically diverse regions of the contiguous United States. During daytime clear-sky periods, SCOPE predicts DLW within instrument uncertainty (10 W m -2 ) for four of the seven locations, with the remaining locations yielding errors of the order of 11.2, 17.7, and 20.2 W m -2 . For daytime cloudy-sky, daytime all-sky (clear or cloudy), and nighttime all-sky periods, SCOPE achieves root mean square error values of 23.0–34.5 W m -2 for all seven locations. These results, together with the low-latency of the method (1 s per sample), show that SCOPE provides a viable solution to real-time, accurate estimation of cloud optical properties for both day and night.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Intercomparison of airborne and surface-based measurements during the CLARIFY, ORACLES and LASIC field experiments

Data are presented from intercomparisons between two research aircraft, the FAAM BAe-146 and the NASA Lockheed P3, and between the BAe-146 and the surface-based DOE (Department of Energy) ARM (Atmospheric Radiation Monitoring) Mobile Facility at Ascension Island (8 S, 14.5W, a remote island in the mid-Atlantic). These took place from 17 August to 5 September 2017, during the African biomass burning season. The primary motivation was to give confidence in the use of data from multiple platforms with which to evaluate numerical climate models. The three platforms were involved in the CLouds-Aerosol-Radiation Interaction and Forcing for Year 2017 (CLARIFY-2017), ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS (ORACLES), and Layered Atlantic Smoke and Interactions with Clouds (LASIC) field experiments. Comparisons from flight segments on six days where the BAe-146 flew alongside the ARM facility on Ascension Island are presented, along with comparisons from wing-tip to wing-tip flight of the P3 and BAe-146 on 18 th August 2017. The intercomparison flight sampled a relatively clean atmosphere overlying a moderately polluted boundary layer, while the 6 fly-bys of the ARM site sampled both clean and polluted conditions 2–4 km upwind. We compare and validate characterisations of aerosol physical, chemical, and optical properties, atmospheric radiation, and cloud microphysics between platforms. We assess the performance of measurement instrumentation in the field, under conditions where sampling conditions are not tightly controlled as in laboratory measurements where calibrations are performed. Solar radiation measurements compared well between airborne platforms. Optical absorption coefficient measurements compared well across all three platforms, even though absolute magnitudes were often low (< 10 Mm -1 ) and close to the sensitivity limits of measurement instrumentation thereby confounding assessments of the comparability of absorption Ångström exponent characterisations. Aerosol absorption measurements from airborne platforms were more comparable than aircraft-to-ground observations. Scattering coefficient observations compared well between airborne platforms, but agreement with ground-based measurements was worse, potentially caused by small differences in sampling conditions or actual aerosol population differences. Chemical composition measurements followed a similar pattern, with better comparisons between the airborne platforms. Thermodynamics, aerosol, and cloud microphysical properties generally compared well.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Sodium doping of solution-processed amine-thiol based CIGS solar cells by thermal evaporation of NaCl

Poor crystallinity, high degree of porosity and rough surfaces are the main drawbacks of solution-processed CIGS absorbers resulting in lower power conversion efficiencies when compared to vacuum-based CIGS solar cells. Therefore, promoting absorber grain growth is key to further improve solution-based solar cell performance. The effect of alkali elements such as Na in CIGS absorbers is generally recognised to have beneficial effects not only on the absorber opto-electronic properties but also on the grain growth. In this work, thermal evaporation of a thin layer of NaCl prior to selenisation resulted in absorbers with significantly larger CIGS grains than previously seen with Na diffusing directly from the from soda-lime glass substrate. NaCl is non-toxic, abundant and readily available compound that has not been typically used as an evaporation source, but rather as an additive into CIGS precursor solution. The effect of Na on these solution-processed CIGS devices was primarily observed in the spectacular morphological changes leading to improved carrier collection and minority carrier lifetimes, but less on the absorber doping. Transmission electron microscopy (TEM) revealed voids forming around large CIGS grains upon NaCl addition and these had a negative effect on inter-grain carrier transport. Nonetheless, the resulting device performance doubled from 5% to 10% with addition of Na using this doping approach; however, a compromise between the optimum grain growth and optimum electronic properties had to be made. This study demonstrates a novel, simple and effective Na-doping strategy for CIGS absorbers and reveals the current limitations of the Na-doping in solution-processed atmospherically deposited cells.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Assessing Photovoltaic Capacity Factor Variability Using Long-Term Satellite Derived Solar Resource Data Under Brazilian Climate

Accurate estimation of photovoltaic (PV) energy yield and its variability is essential for reducing financial risk and supporting reliable system planning for rapidly expanding PV markets. In Brazil, high solar adoption and increasing levels of distributed energy resources are beginning to introduce operational challenges such as curtailment and evolving grid requirements. Understanding how natural variability in solar resource propagates into PV system performance is therefore increasingly important for both project design and grid integration. Modern PV yield assessments commonly rely on multi-year meteorological datasets and probabilistic exceedance metrics (e.g., P50/P90) to quantify energy yield uncertainty for project financing. However, the implications of long-term solar resource variability for PV system design choices and high-adoption grid conditions remain less well characterized for rapidly expanding markets such as Brazil. In particular, understanding how weather-driven variability propagates into PV production distributions and capacity factor expectations is important for evaluating curtailment exposure, deployment strategies, and storage requirements in regions experiencing rapid growth of distributed and utility-scale PV. Seasonal and interannual variability in atmospheric conditions can produce substantial fluctuations in monthly PV energy production, which propagate into uncertainty in annual energy yield and capacity factor expectations. Characterizing this variability using long-term meteorological datasets allows probabilistic estimation of PV system performance and provides improved insight into the range of expected PV energy outcomes. This study explores the use of long-term satellite-derived meteorological data from the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) to evaluate the variability of photovoltaic system performance across multiple locations in Brazil. Using a 27-year dataset (1998-2024), PV system simulations are performed to characterize the distribution of annual and seasonal capacity factors and energy yield outcomes, while propagating key sources of meteorological variability and model uncertainty through the PV modeling chain. The analysis also investigates the sensitivity of PV performance outcomes to key system design assumptions within the PV modeling chain, including tracking configuration and system sizing parameters. The resulting probabilistic performance characterization provides insight into how weather-driven variability influences PV production expectations and capacity factor distributions. These results provide a foundation for evaluating how weather-driven variability interacts with high PV adoption and potential storage or curtailment mitigation strategies.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Solar Fuels Nexus: Molecules and Materials for Light-Driven Catalysis

The American Chemical Society (ACS) selects two groups of graduate students each year to plan and host a one-day symposium at each national meeting (both fall and spring).This year our Graduate Student Symposium Planning Committee (GSSPC), composed of seven students from four universities, proposal entitled “A Solar Fuels Nexus: Molecules and Materials for Light-Driven Catalysis” was selected for the “Crossroads in Chemistry” ACS Meeting that will take place March 23-26, 2023 in Indianapolis, IN. All members of our GSSPC are affiliated with the DOE Fuels from Sunlight Energy Innovation Hub, with two from the Liquid Sunlight Alliance (LiSA) and five from the Center for Hybrid Approaches in Solar Energy to Liquid Fuels (CHASE). Here we request funds to support this symposium. This symposium will highlight research progress and perspectives in the solar fuels generation field and seeks to advance the four priority research objectives (PROs) established by the Department of Energy’s Office of Basic Energy Sciences (DOE-BES) Roundtable Report that are also central to many research goals within LiSA and CHASE. The symposium will consist of research presentations from 10 invited senior researcher speakers on topics such as molecular catalyst design, computational modeling of electron transfer systems, microenvironmental effects on CO2 reduction and H2O oxidation catalysis, and intelligent design of semiconductor interfaces with ample time for discussions. These research topics fit very well with the Solar Photochemistry supported research areas of “light-driven electron and energy transfer in condensed phase and interfacial molecular systems,” “electrocatalysis and photocatalysis of solar fuels reactions,” and “semiconductor photoelectrochemistry.” More broadly, this symposium seeks to advance the DOE-BES’s mission to: “support fundamental research to understand, predict, and ultimately control matter and energy at the level of electrons, atoms, and molecules” by providing a diverse atmosphere where such research will be disseminated, discussed, and debated. There will be a strong focus on Diversity, Equity, and Inclusivity (DEI) in our symposium. Of our 10 speakers, 7 will be from underrepresented demographics in STEM, including 5 who identify as women. Furthermore, we have representatives from academia accompanied by one national lab scientist and one officer from the Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management at the DOE. All speakers will be holding a short DEI moment ahead of their talks. In order to support the career development of attending early career scientists, we will also be hosting a luncheon specifically for graduate students and postdocs to provide them opportunities to network with the distinguished speakers and other attendees. DOE funds for this symposium will be used to support the attendance and participation of 15 graduate students from US institutions by defraying travel and registration costs. These funds will promote engagement and conversation between early career scientists in the solar fuels field, while disseminating solar fuels research funded by and relevant to the DOE.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗