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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Investigation of Flux Spreading in a Light-Trapping, Planar-Cavity Receiver for Enclosed Solar Particle Heating

Concentrating solar thermal power (CSP) technology development has recently focused on increasing the operating temperatures to accommodate high efficiency power cycles and thermochemical processes. Inert solid particles as heat transfer media enable solar receivers to operate above 700 degrees Celsius resulting in increased system thermal efficiency compared to the conventional molten salt based CSP system. An open-cavity falling-particle solar receiver that can efficiently heat particles by direct heating from concentrated solar radiation faces challenges with large particle losses from wind and unable to support thermochemical reactions. A light-trapping, planar cavity reiver (LTPCR) where particles are indirectly heated can significantly minimize the particle losses during the operation, support thermochemical reactions, and offer scalability potential. The LTPCR features an array of vertical planar receiver/absorber panels arranged within a cavity configuration. Concentrated solar radiation from heliostats is focused onto the receiver walls, where heat is indirectly transferred to solid particles flowing inside the receiver channels. Heat transfer occurs through direct contact between the receiver panel walls and particles, and can be enhanced by fluidizing particles with air. This fluidization increases particle-wall contact and extends particle residence time, maximizing heat transfer efficiency. The unique vertical planar receiver structure originated from a near-blackbody tubular light absorber, effectively distributing the incoming solar beam spread across the panel walls and trapping light. This flux spreading effect, driven by cosine projection, converts high incident solar flux into a lower, more uniform heat flux on the panel walls. This redistribution enhances heat transfer efficiency between particle-wall or reaction gases-wall, while preventing localized overheating of the receiver panel. Indirect planar cavity solar receivers completely separate solid particles from the ambient environment that can greatly reduce the thermal losses in heated particles resulting in high efficiency at high temperatures above 700 degrees Celsius. This design ensures no particle losses to the environment during the operation while open-cavity designs can experience significant particle losses from wind. An experimental investigation was conducted to observe flux spreading on the receiver panel wall. A lab-scale prototype planar receiver, fabricated using Haynes 230 alloy, was tested under direct concentrated solar radiation using the high-flux solar furnace (HFSF) facility at NREL. The experiment was performed under normal peak radiative heat fluxes ranging from 800 to 1900 kW/m2. A temperature distribution on the panel wall was measured using a thermal imaging camera (FLIR A 6600). To prevent overheating at the receiver front tip, prism-shaped heat shields (Zircar UNIFROM C1) were placed in front of the receiver, and their influence on flux spreading was also studied. Absorbed flux distribution on the panel wall was modeled using SolTrace. The total solar power and flux distributions delivered from HFSF were determined based on the heliostat mirror optical properties, direct normal irradiance (DNI) on the on-sun testing days, peak flux measurement during the on-sun testing, and shutter/attenuator settings Due to the large incident angles of the solar beam on the panel wall, the angular optical properties of Haynes 230 alloy and Zircar heat shields were incorporated into the model. This flux distribution model was then integrated into a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation to predict the receiver panel wall temperature, which was compared with the experimental measurements. Both prediction and measurements identified a temperature hotspot at the backside of the panel, indicating that the incident solar beam can fully reach to the rear of the receiver. The heat shields positioned at the front of the receiver effectively reduced the excessive temperature rise at the receiver front tip. Overall, the temperature was well distributed over the panel wall, with a minor hotspot at the back of the receiver. The model slightly overpredicted the temperature, possibly due to discrepancies in optical properties of the panel and an underprediction of thermal loss in the receiver. The advancement of the particle LTPCR offers a viable alternative to open-cavity receivers by addressing particle loss issues. Additionally, it presents a pathway for enabling solar thermochemical processes, extending CSP technology beyond power generation to fuel and chemical production.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Sensitivity Study for Forecasting Variables of WRF-Solar Using a Tangent Linear Approach

Integrating solar generation in recent years has highlighted the need for improved accuracy in predicting solar power. Confidence in solar power forecasting can be achieved by designing an ensemble that provides reliable probabilistic information for solar radiation with reduced uncertainty and error. Ideally, ensemble members are created through the optimized perturbation of the initial conditions in numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Tangent linear models are capable of efficiently investigating the sensitivity of solar radiation to model input parameters because they do not require individual perturbation of each variable. This sensitivity study using tangent linear models provide us the capability to identify the right variables to perturb in an ensemble prediction system. In this study, we developed tangent linear models for WRF-Solar modules that directly impact the computation of solar radiation and the simulation of cloud formation and dissipation including the Fast All-sky Model for Solar Applications (FARMS), the Noah land surface model (LSM), the Thompson microphysics, the Mello-Yamada-Nakanishi-Niino (MYNN) boundary layer parameterization, and the Deng scheme for a shallow-convection parameterization. A sensitivity analysis was conducted under various scenarios based on satellite observations and model simulations from the National Solar Radiation Data Base (NSRDB) and WRF-Solar, respectively. Critical forecasting variables that are highly sensitive to the forecasting of global horizontal irradiance (GHI), direct normal irradiance (DNI), cloud mixing ratio, cloud tendency, cloud fraction, and sensible and latent heat fluxes were determined using the relevant WRF-Solar module. This study will be used as a guidance on future research leading to high-quality probabilistic solar forecasting. In this presentation, we discuss the validation of tangent linear approach for WRF-Solar modules and illustrate how the sensitivity results are valuable in the improvement of probabilistic solar prediction.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Techno-Economic Analysis of Greenfield Geothermal Hybrid Power Plants using a Solar or Natural Gas Steam Topping Cycle

The relatively low generation costs associated with wind, solar photovoltaic (PV), and natural-gas power plants make it challenging for geothermal power plants to produce and sell the power that has the reliability and sustainability characteristics that are greatly needed in U.S. power markets. This is especially true for geothermal resources with low-to-medium temperatures, which results in relatively low-thermal efficiency and generation costs that are higher than those for wind, solar PV, and natural gas. This analysis evaluates solar thermal- and natural-gas combustion waste heat recovery-based topping cycle hybridization of geothermal binary power plants. This approach provides several benefits that may allow geothermal power plants to generate power at more competitive costs. First, the addition of solar thermal energy or natural-gas combustion waste heat input to a geothermal power plant provides additional heat input that can be converted to electrical power. Second, the temperature level of the heat obtained from concentrating solar collectors or natural-gas combustion exhaust is higher than that of geothermal heat, which provides opportunities for improving the efficiency of the conversion of thermal energy to electrical power. Third, the ease with which solar thermal systems integrate with energy storage and the flexibility of natural gas means power generation can occur during peak demand periods. The hybrid cycles are compared to equivalently sized, co-located, independent geothermal, concentrating solar, and/or natural-gas power plants. The hybrid cycle tends to produce slightly more power than the standalone plants combined. However, the hybrid plant Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) is slightly higher than the LCOE of the combined standalone power plants for each of the case study locations investigated. Using the steam-topping cycle, organic Rankine cycle (ORC)-bottoming cycle hybrid plant design to combine a solar thermal resource and low- temperature geothermal resource (<120 degrees C) leads to a hybrid plant with a lower LCOE than a standalone geothermal-only system. Thus, hybrid plants may enable the economic development of geothermal resources in locations with low geothermal resource temperatures. However, in areas with higher geothermal resource temperatures (>120 degrees C), the geothermal-only plant has a lower LCOE than the hybrid cycle and thus could be developed without the need for solar heat addition. iv A geothermal-natural-gas reciprocating engine hybrid plant was evaluated for an Elk Hills, California case study location. The Elk Hills case study analysis indicates that when the natural-gas engine operates for more than 12 hours per day the hybrid plant can produce power at an LCOE lower than a standalone geothermal plant, and comparable to that of the standalone natural-gas reciprocating engine, while also reducing the carbon intensity of the power generated relative to the standalone natural-gas engine. This may represent a scenario in which the hybrid plant provides an opportunity for the deployment of a low-temperature geothermal resource that otherwise may have an LCOE too high to develop and operate as a standalone resource, while also reducing the carbon intensity of natural-gas generation sources. A "triple-hybrid" plant that combines natural gas, solar thermal, thermal energy storage, and geothermal was also investigated. A natural-gas combustion turbine (NGCT) is added to the geothermal-solar hybrid such that the hot exhaust gas from the gas turbine provides an alternative source of heat to the steam turbine of the hybrid cycle. Analysis results suggest that the triple-hybrid plant has a significantly higher energy generation and revenue than a standalone NGCT or the original geothermal-solar hybrid. The triple-hybrid design benefits most from using a smaller solar field so that the solar energy can be dispatched at the most valuable times available. The triple-hybrid plant also has a lower LCOE than the standalone NGCT. The triple-hybrid plant was evaluated making simple assumptions about the dispatch profile of the gas cycle, and more nuanced and realistic dispatching schedules should be analyzed in future work.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Large-Scale Solar Development: A Playbook for Southwest Virginia

his playbook is an introductory guide for local governments to facilitate large-scale solar projects in Southwest Virginia. In a region that has a long history of energy production, solar technologies offer enormous potential for economic development and job growth. Large-scale solar can take many forms, including rooftop or ground-mounted installations at local corporate offices, nonprofit organizations, or schools. It can also encompass utility-scale projects over many acres on former agricultural or timberlands, mined lands, or industrial sites. Regardless of the type of project, solar is a widely popular, cost-competitive energy choice that helps create sustainable and prosperous communities. This playbook is directed to municipal and county governments that have an essential role to play in encouraging large-scale solar projects. The first section provides an overview of state and national trends, including recent state legislation that will impact local oversight of solar development. This is followed by an overview of the solar project approval process from a developer’s perspective. The next section is an overview of the state and local permitting process for solar projects, followed by other development considerations such as local tax revenue options, financing incentives, and considerations for solar on brownfields and previously mined lands. The playbook concludes with a step-by-step guide for local governments to facilitate large-scale solar development.This playbook is part of the Solar Workgroup of Southwest Virginia’s effort to bring solar energy and associated jobs to the region. Over the past few years, the workgroup has met with stakeholder groups and crafted a strategy for local solar energy development. The workgroup has collaborated with cities and counties to bring SolSmart designation to eight counties and cities, implemented group purchase campaigns for commercial solar, and led research efforts.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Bringing Low- and Moderate-Income Solar Financing Models to Scale (Final Technical Report (FTR))

In this final report, the Clean Energy States Alliance(CESA) and its project partners describe their work to accelerate the development of solar projects for three distinct subsets of the low- to moderate-income(LMI) solar market: single-family homes, manufactured homes, and community institutions, including multifamily affordable housing. For each market sector, the project team undertook research, outreach, and market-building activities. By advancing promising LMI solar financing innovations for different housing types and spreading them to new locations, the Scaling Up Solar for Under-Resourced Communities project has built momentum to scale up LMI solar. Although the report describes some research pertaining to solar adoption in LMI communities, this project was original in that it focused on two specific models to tackle single-family homes and community institutions. Until this project, very little research dedicated to solar for manufactured homes existed. For each market sector, the project team undertook research, outreach, and market-building activities. For the single-family homes sector, the project encouraged states to adapt a program model based on a successful Connecticut initiative that has brought solar to thousands of LMI homeowners. For manufactured homes, the project analyzed the potential for using solar for that housing sector and worked with states, utilities, and other stakeholders to launch pilot projects or programs. For community institutions, the project team worked with foundations, lenders, and community service organizations to inventory, analyze, and communicate models for philanthropic investment that accelerate the deployment of solar and solar+storage in multifamily affordable housing, health centers, and other LMI-serving community institutions.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Advanced Characterization of Thin Film Solar Cells

Polycrystalline thin-film solar cells have reached a levelized cost of energy that is competitive with all other sources of electricity. The technology has significantly improved in recent years, with laboratory cell efficiencies for cadmium telluride (CdTe), perovskites, and copper indium gallium diselenide (CIGS) each exceeding 22 percent. Both CdTe and CIGS solar panels are now produced at the gigawatt scale. However, there are ongoing challenges, including the continued need to improve performance and stability while reducing cost. Advancing polycrystalline solar cell technology demands an in-depth understanding of efficiency, scaling, and degradation mechanisms, which requires sophisticated characterization methods. These methods will enable reseachers and manufacturers to improve future solar modules and systems. This work provides researchers with a concise overview of the status of thin-film solar cell technology and characterization. Chapters describe material systems and their properties and then provide an in-depth look at relevant characterization methods and the learning facilitated by each of these. Following an introductory chapter, the book provides systematic and thorough coverage of the following topics: trends to improve CdTe solar cell performance; Cu(In,Ga)Se2 and related materials; perovskite solar cells; photovoltaic device modelling; luminescence and thermal imaging of thin-film photovoltaic materials, devices, and modules; application of spatially resolved spectroscopy characterization techniques on Cu2ZnSnSe4 solar cells; time-resolved photoluminescence characterization of polycrystalline thin-film solar cells; fundamentals of electrical material and device spectroscopies applied to thin-film polycrystalline chalcogenide solar cells; nanometer-scale characterization of thin-film solar cells by atomic force microscopy-based electrical probes; scanning transmission electron microscopy characterization of solar cells; photoelectron spectroscopy methods in solar cell research; time-of-flight secondary-ion mass spectrometry and atom probe tomography; and solid-state nuclear magnetic resonance characterization for photovoltaic applications. The final chapter provides an overview and describes future prospects.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Multi-junction solar cells paving the way for super high-efficiency

In order to realize a clean energy society by using renewable energies, high-performance solar cells are a very attractive proposition. The development of high-performance solar cells offers a promising pathway toward achieving high power per unit cost for many applications. As state-of-the-art of single-junction solar cells are approaching the Shockley–Queisser limit of 32%–33%, an important strategy to raise the efficiency of solar cells further is stacking solar cell materials with different bandgaps to absorb different colors of the solar spectrum. The III–V semiconductor materials provide a relatively convenient system for fabricating multi-junction solar cells providing semiconductor materials that effectively span the solar spectrum as demonstrated by world record efficiencies (39.2% under one-sun and 47.1% under concentration) for six-junction solar cells. This success has inspired attempts to achieve the same with other materials like perovskites for which lower manufacturing costs may be achieved. Recently, Si multi-junction solar cells such as III–V/Si, II–VI/Si, chalcopyrite/Si, and perovskite/Si have become popular and are getting closer to economic competitiveness. Here, we discuss the perspectives of multi-junction solar cells from the viewpoint of efficiency and low-cost potential based on scientific and technological arguments and possible market applications. In addition, this article provides a brief overview of recent developments with respect to III–V multi-junction solar cells, III–V/Si, II–VI/Si, perovskite/Si tandem solar cells, and some new ideas including so-called 3rd generation concepts.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Evolving Solar Energy Innovation Ecosystem in Puerto Rico

This report presents initial findings from the research project, “Developing socially and economically generative, resilient PV-energy systems for low- and moderate-income communities: Applications for Puerto Rico.” This material is based upon work supported primarily by the US Department of Energy’s Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy under the Solar Energy Technology Office Fiscal Year 2018 Funding Program award number DE-EE0008570 and in part by the National Science Foundation (NSF) and the Department of Energy (DOE) under NSF CA No. EEC-1041895. This project is a joint effort of Arizona State University’s Center for Energy and Society; the University of Puerto Rico-Mayaguez’s Center for Hemispheric Cooperation in Research and Education in Engineering and Applied Science, Sustainable Energy Center, and National Institute for Energy and Island Sustainability; and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. The project seeks to understand the place of energy in low-income communities in Puerto Rico, the opportunities for solar energy to provide solutions to the energy challenges facing these communities, and the capacity of the solar energy innovation ecosystem in Puerto Rico to deliver relevant solar solutions for these communities. We define the solar energy innovation ecosystem as the diverse actors and stakeholders whose collective networks and actions—and the flows among them of ideas, knowledge, data, influence, money, and equipment, as well as the rules that govern those flows—are essential to the success of renewable energy markets and projects. This report presents results from the first year of the project’s research, which has concentrated on several key goals: (1) characterizing the trajectory of solar energy development in Puerto Rico in the three years since Hurricane María; (2) mapping and characterizing the current solar energy innovation ecosystem in Puerto Rico, including the technical potential for solar energy in Puerto Rico, and the business and policy landscape shaping solar developments; and (3) beginning to characterize the broad landscape of community energy initiatives underway in Puerto Rico. To pursue these goals, we engaged in a systematic review of solar energy developments in Puerto Rico and conducted interviews with over 100 members of the solar energy innovation, including policy, business, finance, research, and civil society leaders, as well as solar users. Solar technical potential data for Puerto Rico was developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and is publicly available at: https://data.nrel.gov/submissions/144. The documentation for the NREL dataset is included as Appendix A.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Solar Radiation Research Laboratory (SRRL) Core Project Final Report: Fiscal Years 2022-2024

The Solar Radiation Research Laboratory (SRRL) at the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR) is a world-leading solar calibration and measurement facility and maintains and disseminates the World Radiation Reference (essentially the W/m2) for the United States that is essential for traceable and accurate measurements of solar radiation at all solar generation facilities. SRRL operates two calibration facilities that meet International Standards Organization-17025 (ISO-17025) standards and provide unique high-quality calibrations to NREL and other U.S. Department of Energy laboratories. The Baseline Measurement System (BMS) at SRRL provides a high-quality record of solar irradiance and surface meteorological conditions. SRRL capabilities are used to develop (1) improved methods for the calibration of solar radiometers; (2) new standards through the ISO, the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC), and the American Standards for Testing of Materials (ASTM) International; (c) solar radiation and meteorological models; and (d) advanced instrumentation and methods for operating solar measurement stations. The SRRL datasets are also critical for the validation of new models and datasets, such as the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB). The research and development of solar radiation measurement systems and resource modeling techniques are essential for advancing the scientific basis for producing reliable resource data. Specifically, the spatial, temporal, and spectral (wavelength dependency) characteristics of the solar resource are required in several different time frames for various project phases.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Expanding the Solar Workforce through the Illinois Community College System

The Illinois Green Economy Network (IGEN) is a consortium of all 39 Illinois community college districts working to grow the green economy in the state. The network aims to build capacity in sustainability and transform education by connecting business/industry and educators to resources, curating information and tools, cultivating partnerships, and advocating for change. Led by IGEN, the goal of the “Expanding the Solar Workforce through the Illinois Community College System” project was to create and sustain a comprehensive, statewide strategy that equips education and training providers, workers, businesses, and communities with resources and tools to prepare a solar workforce. A cohort of five Illinois community colleges participated in the program based on their capacity and interest, as well as their potential for and proximity to industry growth in the state: City Colleges of Chicago, John A. Logan College, Kankakee Community College, Lewis and Clark Community College, and Lincoln Land Community College. The project had three Objectives, 1) Address an unmet need by increasing the pool of skilled solar workers, 2) Keep pace with evolving needs of the solar workforce by improving programs to be more accessible and industry-driven, 3) Strengthen IGEN’s capacity as a statewide resource for solar education, training, and workforce initiatives. Overall, over 400 students were trained in solar installation practices, with over 40 businesses engaged. Additionally. the project spurred a number of innovations and the development of effective practices related to establishing and maintaining a solar installation program at a community college. This project sought to identify effective and scalable practices for developing a solar installation program which included the following components: enrolling students into aligned programs; developing curriculum and courses which meet industry needs; placing students in solar installation or related employment; and sustaining programming past grant funding. Through this project- IGEN was able to identify critical components of a solar installation program. Detailed further in this report these components describe 1) Necessary conditions for establishing a solar installation program, 2) Program structures use cases for different contexts, 3) Effective practices related to student pipeline development and program throughout. As a result of this project- all five participating community colleges have expressed support for continuing to offer solar installation training to their students. Additionally, three nonparticipating colleges in IGEN have expressed interest in adopting practice, courses, or curriculum developed through this program. IGEN has also committed to making the curriculum, course structure and other materials available on their website for accelerated adoption of effective practices both state and nationwide.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Using High-Resolution NSRDB Data to Evaluate Cloud Mask Forecast from WRF-Solar EPS

Validating spatiotemporal distributions of cloud forecasts using numerical weather prediction (NWP) models is difficult as this requires high-quality cloud-property at significantly high spatial and temporal resolution over extended periods of time. Observations of cloud properties, such as cloud mask, cloud optical thickness, and cloud type, are vital for assessing the capability of NWP models to forecast various types of clouds. Using the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB), this research evaluates ensemble cloud-mask predictions from the WRF-Solar ensemble prediction system (WRF-Solar EPS). From the WRF-Solar EPS, day-ahead solar forecasts for the contiguous United States (CONUS) for 2018 are simulated. Given the NSRDB data is accessible at a resolution of 2 km, we can calculate the cloud fraction across the 9-km grid of WRF-Solar EPS. This allows us to spatially assess the cloud-mask forecasts using two methods against the high-resolution NSRDB: (a) considering all 2-km NSRDB clouds in the forecast domain (EMAll), and (b) using a minimum cloud fraction threshold of 50% to designate a pixel as cloudy (EMP50). The low-resolution cloud masks from WRF-Solar EPS are evaluated directly against the cloud-resolving scale gridded observations from NSRDB using EMAll. With EMP50, we presume that scenes with less than 50% cloud cover from the 2-km NSRDB are clear. Thus, this assessment approach allows for a fair comparison with WRF-Solar EPS resolved to a 9-km grid. A method of point-by-point verification is used to evaluate dichotomous (yes/no) cloud mask predictions against the NSRDB. For each pixel of model extent, cloud frequency and traditional metrics (e.g., probability of detection, false alarm rate, and hit rate, etc.) are computed and compared with satellite-derived data sets. Mismatched cloud frequency (MCF) is computed to measure the present capability of WRF-Solar EPS in representing various types of clouds, which are categorized using three levels of cloud top height (CTH) and cloud optical depth (COD) across entire CONUS. Preliminary results show that the WRF-Solar EPS provides MCF values ranging from 9% to 46%, 16% to 33%, and 8% to 27% for low-level, middle-level, and high-level clouds, respectively, for three CTHs. The model produces MCFs ranging from 27% to 46%, 13% to 34%, and 8% to 19% for thin, medium-thickness, and thick clouds, respectively, for three CODs. The presentation will include a detailed description of the current outcomes as well as potential future extensions. The evaluation approach established in this study is readily extensible to the evaluation of cloud predictions from different ensemble NWP models. In addition, the findings of the suggested evaluation technique aid in identifying model weaknesses and will ultimately lead to advances in WRF-Solar EPS's skill in predicting clouds and solar irradiance.

cloud mask forecast↗
DOE OSTI2020

Austin Sustainable and Holistic Integration of Energy Storage and Solar PV [Austin SHINES]. Final Report, Version 2

The Austin SHINES project and solution is a software management platform, for an electric grid with a high penetration of dispersed photovoltaic (PV) solar generation sites, which maintains the traditional power quality and reliability associated with grid service. This project developed and deployed the platform as a Distributed Energy Resource Management System (DERMS), engaging multiple advanced controls, to evaluate operation and optimization of a fleet of diverse DER assets, installed at several locations among Austin Energy’s customers and distribution system. The project also produced a methodology to create a replicable DERMS template, adaptable to other regions and market structures. Last, Austin SHINES aimed to demonstrate the solution’s methodology would enable the DER grid ecosystem to serve load at a technical cost (System Levelized Cost of Electricity, or System LCOE) of less than the U.S. Department of Energy SHINES program metric of $0.14/kWh, in a defined boundary, while enabling a high penetration of distributed PV. Research was categorized in 6 reports (Final Deliverables = FD) listed below, with titles and descriptions indicating which area of understanding was investigated: FD-1: System Levelized Cost of Electricity (System LCOE) Methodology The creation and use of the System LCOE to Serve Load metric that encompasses the holistic, system-level costs and benefits of all resources, and enables them to be evaluated based on their ability to support an efficient and low-cost integrated grid ecosystem. FD-2: Software Platform Product Description The creation of new DER control methodologies deployable within a utility-grade software platform that enable DER's to maximize their benefit within a grid, that is capable of serving load enabling a high penetration of distributed PV generation. FD-3: Optimal Design Methodology Optimal design methodologies for individual DER installations that enable utilities to determine the optimal combinations and sizing for individual DER sites. FD-4: Austin SHINES Ownership and Operation Models for DER System Performance A comparison of multiple DER aggregation and ownership methodologies including direct utility control, third-party aggregator, and autonomous. FD-5: Economic Modeling & Optimization A comparison of multiple DER technology mixes and configurations within the distribution system, providing insight into an optimal blend of technologies that best enable the distribution system to serve load at the lowest cost at high penetrations of solar. FD-6: Fielded Assets Deployed DER assets within the Austin Energy SHINES circuits. Austin SHINES provided an opening for state-of-the-art technology products to be deployed, providing a rich opportunity for improving how each of the products perform as stand-alone products, and in concert with other complementary products. The Austin SHINES project comprised of two key metrics for System LCOE: SystemLCOE_SHINES<$0.14/kWh Modeled ΔSystemLCOE_SHINES/ΔSystemLCOE_Base≥20% at same solar penetration The System LCOE calculation uses the costs of the utility-owned infrastructure as it exists today, the cost of the DERs that exist in the system today, and the cost of the purchase of energy from ERCOT wholesale markets over the course of the calendar year. All costs are on an annualized basis. The capital and operating costs are derived from the rate case, which produces a yearly cost. The net cost of energy and services imported to the system is integrated over the test year, as is the load served and solar penetration. The first metric was easily achieved by every scenario considered. The goal was set when the Department of Energy’s SHINES Funding Opportunity Announcement was written in 2015 and was a more difficult target at the time. Due mostly to rapidly declining costs for DERs and the significant decrease in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) energy market prices, which results in lower net cost of energy purchases, the System LCOE is well below this target for all scenarios considered. A fleet of DERs can assume different mixtures, each of which serves the load at a different LCOE. The optimal mixture of DERs serves load at the smallest System LCOE. The second metric (hereinafter %delta metric) asks that the holistic DERMS controls reduce the incremental cost above the baseline of going to a high solar penetration future by at least 20% as compared to the case of a DER deployment with no sophisticated controls (autonomous). Many comparison sets were created throughout this project. Physical technology was installed for informing utility engineering and testing several types of operational control schemes, through the DERMS. The types of operational control which were compared for valuation of the System LCOE Metric were: Holistic control = using the full suite of the DERMS platform to decide and optimize how/why the systems operate depending on weather, market, and reliability signal input. Autonomous control = a local mode at the asset site, wherein a schedule operates the asset, with visibility into performance only No control = the baseline for comparing value against the other two types of control The types of ownership control included: Direct Utility control = the utility dispatches a signal to each asset Third-Party Aggregator = a third party aggregates a fleet of assets and the utility dispatches one signal for all Autonomous = a local mode is set for operation at the asset site, wherein a schedule operates the asset, with visibility into performance only The types of control methodologies deployable within a utility-grade software platform included: Utility Peak Load Reduction = Lower transmission cost obligation Day-Ahead Energy Arbitrage = Realize economic value through price differential Real-Time Price Dispatch = Realize economic value from real-time price spikes Voltage support = Reduce losses and increase solar generation Distribution Congestion Management = Increase local grid reliability Demand Charge Reduction = Lower customer bills and realize system benefit The fielded assets deployed for the project were: Utility Scale Kingsbery Energy Storage System: 1.5 MW / 3 MWh Li-Ion battery storage Mueller Energy Storage System: 1.75 MW / 3.2 MWh Li-Ion battery storage, 7 Energy Storage Units (250 kW each) La Loma Community Solar: 2.6 MW Commercial Scale Aggregated storage installations at 3 sites, with existing solar (300+ kW): One 18 kW / 36 kWh Li-Ion battery storage Two 72 kW / 144 kWh Li-Ion battery storage Residential Scale Aggregated storage installations: -Six stationary battery storage systems (10 kWh each) at homes with existing solar -One Electric Vehicle installed as Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) Utility-Controlled Solar via Smart Inverters at 12 homes Autonomously-Controlled Smart Inverters at 6 homes Over the course of the project, Austin SHINES undertook installing more than 3 MW of distributed battery energy storage, smart PV inverters, a DER control platform, and other enabling technologies utilizing customer and utility locations and aggregation models. All of these resources were to be integrated and optimized at the utility level. DER assets and control methodologies were designed to achieve a credible pathway to a System LCOE for energy delivered to load of $0.14//kWh or less by 2020, while maximizing distributed solar generation and maintaining acceptable standards of power quality. The project also established a template for other regions to follow, to maximize the adoption of distributed solar PV in support of an economic and efficient grid. In total, the Austin SHINES project added value to the DER subject area in each layer of integration. From utility, to commercial to residential scales, the sheer hierarchy of communication and coordination was a significant accomplishment in addition to learnings from what these communications revealed was unique to each. Economically, the most effective method demonstrated was the criticality of planning phases. Contingencies and multiple projection scenarios helped guide the project to deploy optimal design as close as feasible, in real world conditions. The project and reports will serve public benefit by outlining specific areas of DER strategy and installation where many stakeholders and needs can be addressed with improved efficiency. Overall, communities and utilities should use the results to guide the increasing options available for powering the grid with DER, renewables, and carbon considerate energy.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Probabilistic Cloud Optimized Day-Ahead Forecasting System Based on WRF-Solar (Final Report)

The most persistent challenge in both intraday and day-ahead solar forecasting is to get numerical weather prediction models to produce the right type of clouds with the right frequency at the right time and place. Another challenge is to understand and communicate the forecast uncertainty. The objective of this project was to develop an optimized ensemble-based solar irradiance forecasting system that will (1) demonstrably improve the current state-of-the-art solar forecasts from the deterministic Weather Research and Forecasting-Solar (WRF-Solar) model and (2) provide probabilistic forecasts for grid operations. This probabilistic solar forecasting system, referred to as the WRF-Solar Ensemble Prediction System (WRF-Solar EPS), aims to significantly enhance both the intraday and the day-ahead solar forecasting capability for grid operations. This technical report summarizes the work performed in the past 3 years through a collaboration between the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and the National Center for Atmospheric Research as part of the U.S. Department of Energy's Solar Forecasting 2 program that aims to improve the accuracy of solar energy forecasts and enable increased deployment of solar energy on the electric grid.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Hot‐Swappable, Fault‐Tolerant, Modular Power Converter System for Solar Photovoltaic Plants

The performance metrics of the state-of-the-art commercial solar inverters, such as system cost, operation and maintenance (O&M) cost, service life, reliability, maintainability, and power density are much lower than the target metrics needed to achieve SunShot’s 2030 levelized cost of energy (LCOE) goals. To overcome the shortcomings of the existing solar inverters, this project proposed a novel Hot-Swappable, Fault-Tolerant, Modular Power Converter (HSFT-MPC) concept for solar photovoltaic (PV) plants and proved the concept through the design, fabrication, and laboratory test validation of a single-phase HSFT-MPC prototype. The HSFT-MPC has the following distinct advantages over the state-of-the-art: 1) elimination of harmonic/ electromagnetic interference (EMI) filter in the inverter stage due to the novel topology, 2) lower system cost and higher power density due to the modular design, elimination of harmonic/EMI filter, and lower cooling requirement, 3) higher efficiency due to lower switching frequencies, 4) higher reliability and longer (50 years) service life due to simpler cooling and fault tolerance capability, 5) easier installation, lower O&M cost, and improved maintainability due to the modular design and hot-swappable power electronic building blocks (PEBBs), and 6) improved manufacturability due to the modular design. This project developed a single-phase HSFT-MPC prototype with 25kW nominal output power, 2.4kV, 60Hz nominal AC output, lower than 5% AC output voltage total harmonic distortion, over 5 kW/L inverter power density, and 99.4% inverter peak efficiency, being tolerant to failure of single and multiple PEBBs, and capable of hot swapping of the failed PEBB(s). The HSFT-MPC enables uninterruptable operation of the solar PV plant when failure of single or multiple PEBBs or PV modules occurs. Compared with the existing solar inverters in the market, the HSFT-MPC is expected to reduce the inverter failure-caused downtime and energy losses of solar PV plants by more than 60% and 50%, respectively. Project findings have been presented at major conferences in the field and published in peer-reviewed papers, which added new knowledge to the field of power electronics for solar PV systems. A minicourse on Solar PV Systems was developed for outreach activities. The minicourse will help attract young individuals to the renewable energy profession which has a significant talent shortage. The HSFT-MPC is expected to overcome all of the shortcomings of the state-of-the-art solar inverters in terms of cost, efficiency, service life, reliability, maintainability, and manufacturability targets needed to achieve SunShot’s 2030 LCOE goals. Therefore, the proposed HSFT-MPC concept has the great potential to disrupt the current solar inverter market. This project created a pathway towards industry adoption of the HSFT-MPC to help achieve 50-year service life solar PV systems. Since the solar PV plants using the HSFT-MPC will feature with higher reliability, longer service life, and easier maintenance, they are particularly useful for the rural areas with underserved populations that demand reliable and affordable clean electricity. The outcomes of the project have the strong potential to address national needs in the field of renewable energy to reduce CO 2 emissions from the electricity sector, reduce imports of energy from foreign sources, and improve energy security, efficiency, and sustainability. Since electricity is used in almost all of society’s sectors, the outcomes of the project will benefit various sectors of society and economy.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Short-Term Solar Forecasting Platform Using a Physics-Based Smart Persistence Model and Data Imputation Method

Electrical energy plays vital role in our socio-economic activity and therefore ensuring the reliability of the electric grid, from the generation, transmission and distribution level is critical. In order to maintain the power system parameter viz., frequency, voltage, etc., optimally, balancing of generation and consumption is very much essential. However, solar energy is infirm power by nature this is due to cloud cover / other local phenomena. Hence, Photovoltaic (PV) power generation brings a significant challenge to the grid operator due to the variability of the solar energy. The complexity of this challenge in terms of planning and dispatch ability of PV resources, aggravates with the high penetration of solar energy into the electric grid. In this setting, reliable solar radiation forecasting models based on accurate and quality input data become essential. In order to develop a suitable model for predicting solar radiation, quality historical / real time measurement is also needed. Under this study NIWE and NREL jointly developed / tested short-term solar forecasting frameworks using a smart persistence and physics-based smart persistence models for intra-hour forecasting of solar radiation (PSPI) and benchmarked 9 different data imputation techniques in 15 Solar Radiation Resource Assessment (SRRA) stations, located at different parts of India. During any measurement campaign, due to various technical reasons, we may miss few observations. However, the missing observation often reduce the performance of any forecasting model. Therefore, suitable data imputation method would assist us to obtain continuous observation of solar radiation. A station-by-station and method-by-method analysis was carried out to understand the performance of each model. Based on our analysis, among all the data imputation methods, the Kalman data imputation method is better for Indian Weather condition. In addition, Kalman StructTS, Linear, Stine and Arima methods yield slightly inferior accuracy compared to Kalman, but outperform the other methods. The extended solar radiation data are used by solar forecasting models to provide the prediction of solar radiation at 15 SRRA stations. As far as short term forecasting model is concerned, the PSPI model outperforms the Smart Persistence model. However, the forecast error is increases with the forecasting horizon.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Advanced Solar and Load Forecasting Incorporating HD Sky Imaging (Phase III)

Due to rapidly changing sky conditions, the available solar irradiance for energy generation is subject to wide swings in amplitude. As the market penetration of solar energy continues to increase rapidly, these variations in solar power generation are beginning to have an impact on grid stability and increased wear on power switches. Solar power forecasting plays a critical role in operations for Independent System Operators (ISOs) and utilities. Accurate forecasts help maintain grid reliability, optimize generation from renewables, and reduce operating costs. Of particular interest to the ISOs and utilities are sudden changes in solar irradiance, termed “ramp events,” due to the movement of clouds. One significant impact of ramp events on the grid is additional ancillary service requirements necessary to manage such variability. Ramp events can also cause voltage fluctuations in the distribution grids and trigger actions of automated line equipment (e.g., tap changers), leading to additional maintenance costs. In high penetration solar regions, forecasts must be made for both transmission-connected and distribution-connected resources – either behind the meter or in front of it. Particularly for distributed solar energy resources, forecasting can be a challenge due to the lack of visibility of the energy resource. Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) has been working towards nowcasting Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) using low-cost technologies for several years now. The Solar NowCasting technology being developed by BNL is a 0 – 30 min solar “nowcasting” technology applicable to a scale covering both large generating facilities and residential, distributed solar installations that relies on a network of ground-based high-definition (HD) cameras and surface pyranometers. GHI forecasts are being produced for both regions using 8 ground-based HD cameras and at least 2 surface pyranometers. When stitched together, the camera images can be used to forecast the impact of clouds on available solar irradiance over a domain of ~50 km 2 . Phase I of the project was the engineering scale up conceptual design stage. Phase II was the initial field test and demonstration, in which the technology was scaled up by a factor of 20 times and successfully demonstrated in eastern Long Island. In Phase III, an additional forecasting network was added in upstate NY and both networks are currently being operated until at least a full year of data is gathered by the Albany network to allow for the collection of sufficient data to evaluate performance against the persistence and smart persistence models using the Solar Arbiter.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Analysis of Planar-Cavity Receiver Reactor for Solar Thermochemical Dry-Reforming

Concentrating solar thermal (CST) systems can be leveraged to provide not only heat for power generation, but also for energy storage and thermochemical fuel production. Such solar thermochemical processes have been studied conceptually, from solar thermochemical hydrogen production (STCH) and thermochemical energy storage (TCES), to gasification, reforming, and fuel upgrading by various means. The solar receiver and reactor are critical components in the conversion of solar energy into chemical energy in the form of 'solar fuels'. For effective conversion of solar energy within a coupled solar receiver-reactor, extremely high temperatures are required, thereby demanding a high solar concentration ratio (CR) for efficient operation. This creates a design challenge for the receiver-reactor, as many thermochemical processes involve gas or gas-solid systems that are limited by low heat transfer coefficients. A unique receiver design is proposed that has the potential to incorporate various high-temperature thermochemical processes such as TCES-assisted power generation, methane reforming, or STCH processes. Modeling this receiver and its potential applications requires a full three-dimensional model that accurately captures the interconnected effects of receiver geometry, spatial solar irradiance, complex radiation, reaction kinetics, fluid dynamics, and heat transfer. In this paper we analyze a CST system integrated with this unique planar-cavity receiver-reactor design using the developed model. The model presented in this paper showed where improved thermal management was needed to achieve suitable receiver performance when a dry-methane reforming process is implemented.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Event-Based Analysis of Solar Power Distribution Feeder Using Micro-PMU Measurements

Solar distribution feeders are commonly used in solar farms that are integrated into distribution substations. In this paper, we focus on a real-world solar distribution feeder and conduct an event-based analysis by using micro-PMU measurements. The solar distribution feeder of interest is a behind-the-meter solar farm with a generation capacity of over 4 MW that has about 200 low-voltage distributed photovoltaic (PV) inverters. The event-based analysis in this study seeks to address the following practical matters. First, we conduct event detection by using an unsupervised machine learning approach. For each event, we determine the event’s source region by an impedancebased analysis, coupled with a descriptive analytic method. We segregate the events that are caused by the solar farm, i.e., locallyinduced events, versus the events that are initiated in the grid, i.e., grid-induced events, which caused a response by the solar farm. Second, for the locally-induced events, we examine the impact of solar production level and other significant parameters to make statistical conclusions. Third, for the grid-induced events, we characterize the response of the solar farm; and make comparisons with the response of an auxiliary neighboring feeder to the same events. Fourth, we scrutinize multiple specific events; such as by revealing the dynamics to the control system of the solar distribution feeder. The results and discoveries in this study are informative to utilities and solar power industry.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗