Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “space telescope”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 325 records · Page 18
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

SALT3-NIR: Taking the Open-source Type Ia Supernova Model to Longer Wavelengths for Next-generation Cosmological Measurements

Abstract A large fraction of Type Ia supernova (SN Ia) observations over the next decade will be in the near-infrared (NIR), at wavelengths beyond the reach of the current standard light-curve model for SN Ia cosmology, SALT3 (∼2800–8700 Å central filter wavelength). To harness this new SN Ia sample and reduce future light-curve standardization systematic uncertainties, we train SALT3 at NIR wavelengths (SALT3-NIR) up to 2 μ m with the open-source model-training software SALTshaker , which can easily accommodate future observations. Using simulated data, we show that the training process constrains the NIR model to ∼2%–3% across the phase range (−20 to 50 days). We find that Hubble residual (HR) scatter is smaller using the NIR alone or optical+NIR compared to optical alone, by up to ∼30% depending on filter choice (95% confidence). There is significant correlation between NIR light-curve stretch measurements and luminosity, with stretch and color corrections often improving HR scatter by up to ∼20%. For SN Ia observations expected from the Roman Space Telescope, SALT3-NIR increases the amount of usable data in the SALT framework by ∼20% at redshift z ≲ 0.4 and by ∼50% at z ≲ 0.15. The SALT3-NIR model is part of the open-source SNCosmo and SNANA SN Ia cosmology packages.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Blanco DECam Bulge Survey (BDBS). VII. Multiple Populations in Globular Clusters of the Galactic Bulge

We present photometric evidence for multiple stellar populations (MPs) in 14 globular clusters (GCs) toward the southern Galactic bulge. The photometric data come as part of the Blanco DECam Bulge Survey, which is a deep, wide-field near-UV-near-IR (ugrizY) survey of the southern Galactic bulge. Here, we present the first systematic study of bulge GC multiple populations with deep photometry including the u band, which is a crucial indicator of the abundance of CNO-bearing molecules in stellar atmospheres. We identify cluster members using Gaia EDR3 proper motion measurements, and then isolate red giant branch stars using r versus u - r color–magnitude diagrams. We find evidence suggesting all 14 clusters host at least two populations, and NGC 6441, NGC 6626, and NGC 6656 appear to have at least three populations. Many of these clusters are not part of the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) surveys nor do they have comprehensive spectroscopic analyses so we are presenting the first evidence of MPs in several clusters. Not only do we find a strong anticorrelation between the fraction of first-generation stars and cluster absolute V magnitude, but the correlation coefficient and cluster-to-cluster scatter are similar to the results obtained from HST. Our ground-based data extend to much larger radial distances than similar HST observations, enabling a reliable estimate of the global fraction of first-generation stars in each cluster. This study demonstrates that ground-based u-band photometry as provided by DECam will prove powerful in the study of multiple populations in resolved GCs.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

γ-Ray Emission from Classical Nova V392 Per: Measurements from Fermi and HAWC

This paper reports on the γ -ray properties of the 2018 Galactic nova V392 Per, spanning photon energies ~0.1 GeV–100 TeV by combining observations from the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope and the HAWC Observatory. As one of the most rapidly evolving γ -ray signals yet observed for a nova, GeV γ -rays with a power-law spectrum with an index Γ = 2.0 ± 0.1 were detected over 8 days following V392 Per’s optical maximum. HAWC observations constrain the TeV γ -ray signal during this time and also before and after. We observe no statistically significant evidence of TeV γ -ray emission from V392 Per, but present flux limits. Tests disfavor the extension of the Fermi Large Area Telescope spectrum to energies above 5 TeV by 2 standard deviations (95%) or more. We fit V392 Per’s GeV γ -rays with hadronic acceleration models, incorporating optical observations, and compare the calculations with HAWC limits.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

From Images to Dark Matter: End-to-end Inference of Substructure from Hundreds of Strong Gravitational Lenses

Abstract Constraining the distribution of small-scale structure in our universe allows us to probe alternatives to the cold dark matter paradigm. Strong gravitational lensing offers a unique window into small dark matter halos (<10 10 M ⊙ ) because these halos impart a gravitational lensing signal even if they do not host luminous galaxies. We create large data sets of strong lensing images with realistic low-mass halos, Hubble Space Telescope (HST) observational effects, and galaxy light from HST’s COSMOS field. Using a simulation-based inference pipeline, we train a neural posterior estimator of the subhalo mass function (SHMF) and place constraints on populations of lenses generated using a separate set of galaxy sources. We find that by combining our network with a hierarchical inference framework, we can both reliably infer the SHMF across a variety of configurations and scale efficiently to populations with hundreds of lenses. By conducting precise inference on large and complex simulated data sets, our method lays a foundation for extracting dark matter constraints from the next generation of wide-field optical imaging surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Timing the r -process Enrichment of the Ultra-faint Dwarf Galaxy Reticulum II

The ultra-faint dwarf galaxy Reticulum II (Ret II) exhibits a unique chemical evolution history, with ${72}_{-12}^{+10}$% of its stars strongly enhanced in r-process elements. We present deep Hubble Space Telescope photometry of Ret II and analyze its star formation history. As in other ultra-faint dwarfs, the color–magnitude diagram is best fit by a model consisting of two bursts of star formation. If we assume that the bursts were instantaneous, then the older burst occurred around the epoch of reionization, forming ~80% of the stars in the galaxy, while the remainder of the stars formed ~3 Gyr later. When the bursts are allowed to have nonzero durations, we obtain slightly better fits. The best-fitting model in this case consists of two bursts beginning before reionization, with approximately half the stars formed in a short (100 Myr) burst and the other half in a more extended period lasting 2.6 Gyr. Considering the full set of viable star formation history models, we find that 28% of the stars formed within 500 ± 200 Myr of the onset of star formation. The combination of the star formation history and the prevalence of r-process-enhanced stars demonstrates that the r-process elements in Ret II must have been synthesized early in its initial star-forming phase. We therefore constrain the delay time between the formation of the first stars in Ret II and the r-process nucleosynthesis to be less than 500 Myr. This measurement rules out an r-process source with a delay time of several Gyr or more, such as GW170817.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

60 Microlensing Events from the Three Years of Zwicky Transient Facility Phase One

Abstract Microlensing events have historically been discovered throughout the Galactic bulge and plane by surveys designed solely for that purpose. We conduct the first multiyear search for microlensing events on the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF), an all-sky optical synoptic survey that observes the entire visible northern sky every few nights. We discover 60 high-quality microlensing events in the 3 yr of ZTF-I using the bulk lightcurves in the ZTF Public Data Release 5.19 of our events are found outside of the Galactic plane (∣ b ∣ ≥ 10°), nearly doubling the number of previously discovered events in the stellar halo from surveys pointed toward the Magellanic Clouds and the Andromeda galaxy. We also record 1558 ongoing candidate events as potential microlensing that can continue to be observed by ZTF-II for identification. The scalable and computationally efficient methods developed in this work can be applied to future synoptic surveys, such as the Vera C. Rubin Observatory’s Legacy Survey of Space and Time and the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope, as they attempt to find microlensing events in even larger and deeper data sets.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Early Light Curve of the Type Ia Supernova 2021hpr in NGC 3147: Progenitor Constraints with the Companion Interaction Model

The progenitor system of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) is expected to be a close binary system consisting of a carbon/oxygen white dwarf (WD) and a nondegenerate star or another WD. Here, we present results from high-cadence monitoring observations of SN 2021hpr in a spiral galaxy, NGC 3147, and constraints on the progenitor system based on its early multicolor light-curve data. First, we classify SN 2021hpr as a normal SN Ia from its long-term photometric and spectroscopic data. More interestingly, we found a significant "early excess" in the light curve over a simple power-law ~t 2 evolution. The early light curve evolves from blue to red to blue during the first week. To explain this, we fitted the early part of the BVRI-band light curves with a two-component model consisting of ejecta–companion interaction and a simple power-law model. The early excess and its color can be explained by shock-cooling emission due to a companion star having a radius of 8.84 ± 0.58 R ⊙ . We also examined Hubble Space Telescope preexplosion images, finding no detection of a progenitor candidate, consistent with the above result. However, we could not detect signs of a significant amount of stripped mass from a nondegenerate companion star (≲0.003 M ⊙ for Hα emission). The early excess light in the multiband light curve supports a nondegenerate companion in the progenitor system of SN 2021hpr. At the same time, the nondetection of emission lines opens the door for other methods to explain this event.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

SPT-CL J2215−3537: A Massive Starburst at the Center of the Most Distant Relaxed Galaxy Cluster

Abstract We present the discovery of the most distant, dynamically relaxed cool core cluster, SPT-CL J2215−3537 (SPT2215), and its central brightest cluster galaxy (BCG) at z = 1.16. Using new X-ray observations, we demonstrate that SPT2215 harbors a strong cool core with a central cooling time of 200 Myr (at 10 kpc) and a maximal intracluster medium cooling rate of 1900 ± 400 M ⊙ yr −1 . This prodigious cooling may be responsible for fueling the extended, star-forming filaments observed in Hubble Space Telescope imaging. Based on new spectrophotometric data, we detect bright [O ii ] emission in the BCG, implying an unobscured star formation rate (SFR) of 320 − 140 + 230 M ⊙ yr −1 . The detection of a weak radio source (2.0 ± 0.8 mJy at 0.8 GHz) suggests ongoing feedback from an active galactic nucleus (AGN), though the implied jet power is less than half the cooling luminosity of the hot gas, consistent with cooling overpowering heating. The extreme cooling and SFR of SPT2215 are rare among known cool core clusters, and it is even more remarkable that we observe these at such high redshift, when most clusters are still dynamically disturbed. The high mass of this cluster, coupled with the fact that it is dynamically relaxed with a highly isolated BCG, suggests that it is an exceptionally rare system that must have formed very rapidly in the early universe. Combined with the high SFR, SPT2215 may be a high- z analog of the Phoenix cluster, potentially providing insight into the limits of AGN feedback and star formation in the most massive galaxies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Nature of LoBAL QSOs. II. HST/WFC3 Observations Reveal Host Galaxies Dominated by Mergers

Low-ionization broad absorption line QSOs (LoBALs) are suspected to be merging systems in which extreme, active galactic nucleus-driven outflows have been triggered. Whether or not LoBALs are uniquely associated with mergers, however, has yet to be established. To characterize the morphologies of LoBALs, we present the first high-resolution morphological analysis of a volume-limited sample of 22 Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS)-selected LoBALs at 0.5 < z < 0.6 from Hubble Space Telescope Wide Field Camera 3 observations. Host galaxies are resolved in 86% of the systems in F125W, which is sensitive to old stellar populations, while only 18% are detected in F475W, which traces young, unobscured stellar populations. Signs of recent or ongoing tidal interaction are present in 45%–64% of the hosts, including double nuclei, tidal tails, bridges, plumes, shells, and extended debris. Ongoing interaction with a companion is apparent in 27%-41% of the LoBALs, with as much as 1/3 of the sample representing late-stage mergers at projected nuclear separations <10 kpc. Detailed surface brightness modeling indicates that 41% of the hosts are bulge dominated while only 18% are disks. We discuss trends in various properties as a function of merger stage and parametric morphology. Notably, mergers are associated with slower, dustier winds than those seen in undisturbed/unresolved hosts. Our results favor an evolutionary scenario in which quasar-level accretion during various merger stages is associated with the observed outflows in low-z LoBALs. We discuss differences between LoBALs and FeLoBALs and show that selection via the traditional balnicity index would have excluded all but one of the mergers.

Quasars↗
DOE OSTI2023

Standardized Luminosity of the Tip of the Red Giant Branch Utilizing Multiple Fields in NGC 4258 and the CATs Algorithm

Abstract The tip of the red giant branch provides a luminous standard candle for calibrating distance ladders that reach Type Ia supernova (SN Ia) hosts. However, recent work reveals that tip measurements vary at the ∼0.1 mag level for different stellar populations and locations within a host, which may lead to inconsistencies along the distance ladder. We pursue a calibration of the tip using 11 Hubble Space Telescope fields around the maser host, NGC 4258, that is consistent with SN Ia hosts by standardizing tip measurements via their contrast ratios. We find F814W-band tips that exhibit a full 0.3 mag range and 0.1 mag dispersion. We do not find any correlation between Hicolumn density and the apparent tip to 0.04 ± 0.03 mag/cm −2 . We search for a tip–contrast relation (TCR) and measure the TCR within the fields of NGC 4258 of −0.015 ± 0.008 mag/R, whereRis the contrast ratio. This value is consistent with the TCR originally discovered in the GHOSTS sample of −0.023 ± 0.005 mag/R. Combining these measurements, we find a global TCR of −0.021 ± 0.004 mag/Rand a calibration of M I TRGB = − 4.025 ± 0.035 − ( R − 4 ) × 0.021 mag. We also use stellar models to simulate single age and metallicity stellar populations with [Fe/H] from −2.0 to −0.7 and ages from 3 to 12 Gyr and reconstruct the global TCR found here to a factor of ∼2. This work is combined in a companion analysis with tip measurements of nearby SN Ia hosts to measureH 0 .

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2023

NGC 6302: The Tempestuous Life of a Butterfly

Abstract NGC 6302 (The Butterfly Nebula) is an extremely energetic and rapidly expanding bipolar planetary nebula (PN). If the central source is a single star, then its apparent location in an H-R diagram places it among the most massive, hottest, and presumably rapidly evolving of all central stars of PNe. Our proper motion study of NGC 6302, based on Hubble Space Telescope WFC3 images spanning 11 yr, has uncovered at least four different pairs of uniformly expanding internal lobes ejected at various times and orientations over the past two millennia at speeds ranging from 10–600 km s −1 . In addition, we find a pair of collimated off-axis flows in constant motion at ∼770 ± 100 km s −1 within which bright [Feii]feathersare conspicuous. Combining our results with those previously published, we find that the ensemble of flows has an ionized mass >0.1M ⊙ and its kinetic energy, between 10 46 and 10 48 erg, lies at the upper end of gravity-powered PNe ejection processes such as stellar mergers or mass accretion. We assemble our results into a plausible historical timeline of ejections from the nucleus and suggest that the ejections are powered by gravitational infall.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating the Consistency of Cosmological Distances Using Supernova Siblings in the Near-infrared

Abstract The study of supernova (SN) siblings, supernovae with the same host galaxy, is an important avenue for understanding and measuring the properties of Type Ia SN Ia light curves (LCs). Thus far, sibling analyses have mainly focused on optical LC data. Considering that LCs in the near-infrared (NIR) are expected to be better standard candles than those in the optical, we carry out the first analysis compiling SN siblings with only NIR data. We perform an extensive literature search of all SN siblings and find six sets of siblings with published NIR photometry. We calibrate each set of siblings ensuring they are on homogeneous photometric systems, fit the LCs with the SALT3-NIR and SNooPy models, and find median absolute differences inμvalues between siblings of 0.248 and 0.186 mag, respectively. To evaluate the significance of these differences beyond measurement noise, we run simulations that mimic these LCs and provide an estimate for uncertainty on these median absolute differences of ∼0.052 mag, and we find that, statistically, our analysis rules out the nonexistence of intrinsic scatter in the NIR at the 99% level. When comparing the same sets of SN siblings, we observe a median absolute difference inμvalues between siblings of 0.177 mag when using optical data alone as compared to 0.186 mag when using NIR data alone. It is unclear if these results may be due to limited statistics or poor quality NIR data, all of which will be improved with the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Reconnaissance with JWST of the J-region Asymptotic Giant Branch in Distance Ladder Galaxies: From Irregular Luminosity Functions to Approximation of the Hubble Constant

Abstract We study stars in the J-regions of the asymptotic giant branch (JAGB) of near-infrared color–magnitude diagrams in the maser host NGC 4258 and four hosts of six Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia): NGC 1448, NGC 1559, NGC 5584, and NGC 5643. These clumps of stars are readily apparent near 1.0 < F150W − F277W < 1.5 andm F150W = 22–25 mag with James Webb Space Telescope NIRCam photometry. Various methods have been proposed to assign an apparent reference magnitude to this recently proposed standard candle, including the mode, median, sigma-clipped mean, or a modeled luminosity function parameter. We test the consistency of these by measuring intrahost variations, finding differences of up to ∼0.2 mag that significantly exceed statistical uncertainties. Brightness differences appear intrinsic, and are further amplified by the nonuniform shape of the JAGB luminosity function, also apparent in the LMC and SMC. We follow a “many methods” approach to measure consistently JAGB magnitudes and distance moduli to the SN Ia host sample calibrated by NGC 4258. We find broad agreement with distance moduli measured from Cepheids, tip of the red giant branch, and Miras. However, the SN host mean distance modulus estimated via the JAGB method necessary to estimateH 0 differs by ∼0.19 mag among the above definitions, the result of different levels of luminosity function asymmetry. The methods yield a full range of 71−78 km s −1 Mpc −1 , i.e., a fiducial result ofH 0 = 74.7 ± 2.1(stat) ± 2.3(sys, ±3.1 if combined in quadrature) km s −1 Mpc −1 , with systematic errors limited by the differences in methods. Future work may seek to standardize and refine this promising tool further, making it more competitive with established distance indicators.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Methods for Incorporating Model Uncertainty into Exoplanet Atmospheric Analysis

A key goal of exoplanet spectroscopy is to measure atmospheric properties, such as abundances of chemical species, in order to connect them to our understanding of atmospheric physics and planet formation. In this new era of high-quality JWST data, it is paramount that these measurement methods are robust. When comparing atmospheric models to observations, multiple candidate models may produce reasonable fits to the data. Typically, conclusions are reached by selecting the best-performing model according to some metric. This ignores model uncertainty in favor of specific model assumptions, potentially leading to measured atmospheric properties that are overconfident and/or incorrect. In this paper, we compare three ensemble methods for addressing model uncertainty by combining posterior distributions from multiple analyses: Bayesian model averaging, a variant of Bayesian model averaging using leave-one-out predictive densities, and stacking of predictive distributions. We demonstrate these methods by fitting the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) + Spitzer transmission spectrum of the hot Jupiter HD 209458b using models with different cloud and haze prescriptions. All of our ensemble methods lead to uncertainties on retrieved parameters that are larger but more realistic and consistent with physical and chemical expectations. Since they have not typically accounted for model uncertainty, uncertainties of retrieved parameters from HST spectra have likely been underreported. We recommend stacking as the most robust model combination method. Our methods can be used to combine results from independent retrieval codes and from different models within one code. They are also widely applicable to other exoplanet analysis processes, such as combining results from different data reductions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Forecasts for Galaxy Formation and Dark Matter Constraints from Dwarf Galaxy Surveys

Abstract The abundance of faint dwarf galaxies is determined by the underlying population of low-mass dark matter (DM) halos and the efficiency of galaxy formation in these systems. Here, we quantify potential galaxy formation and DM constraints from future dwarf satellite galaxy surveys. We generate satellite populations using a suite of Milky Way (MW)–mass cosmological zoom-in simulations and an empirical galaxy–halo connection model, and assess sensitivity to galaxy formation and DM signals when marginalizing over galaxy–halo connection uncertainties. We find that a survey of all satellites around one MW-mass host can constrain a galaxy formation cutoff at peak virial masses of M 50 = 10 8 M ⊙ at the 1 σ level; however, a tail toward low M 50 prevents a 2 σ measurement. In this scenario, combining hosts with differing bright satellite abundances significantly reduces uncertainties on M 50 at the 1 σ level, but the 2 σ tail toward low M 50 persists. We project that observations of one (two) complete satellite populations can constrain warm DM models with m WDM ≈ 10 keV (20 keV). Subhalo mass function (SHMF) suppression can be constrained to ≈70%, 60%, and 50% that in cold dark matter (CDM) at peak virial masses of 10 8 , 10 9 , and 10 10 M ⊙ , respectively; SHMF enhancement constraints are weaker (≈20, 4, and 2 times that in CDM, respectively) due to galaxy–halo connection degeneracies. These results motivate searches for faint dwarf galaxies beyond the MW and indicate that ongoing missions like Euclid and upcoming facilities including the Vera C. Rubin Observatory and Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope will probe new galaxy formation and DM physics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Primordial Black Hole Dark Matter Simulations Using PopSyCLE

Abstract Primordial black holes (PBHs), theorized to have originated in the early Universe, are speculated to be a viable form of dark matter. If they exist, they should be detectable through photometric and astrometric signals resulting from gravitational microlensing of stars in the Milky Way. Population Synthesis for Compact-object Lensing Events, or PopSyCLE , is a simulation code that enables users to simulate microlensing surveys, and is the first of its kind to include both photometric and astrometric microlensing effects, which are important for potential PBH detection and characterization. To estimate the number of observable PBH microlensing events, we modify PopSyCLE to include a dark matter halo consisting of PBHs. We detail our PBH population model, and demonstrate our PopSyCLE + PBH results through simulations of the Optical Gravitational Lensing Experiment-IV (OGLE-IV) and Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope (Roman) microlensing surveys. We provide a proof-of-concept analysis for adding PBHs into PopSyCLE , and thus include many simplifying assumptions, such as f DM , the fraction of dark matter composed of PBHs, and m ¯ PBH , mean PBH mass. Assuming m ¯ PBH = 30 M ⊙ , we find ∼3.6 f DM times as many PBH microlensing events than stellar evolved black hole events, a PBH average peak Einstein crossing time of ∼91.5 days, estimate on order of 10 2 f DM PBH events within the 8 yr OGLE-IV results, and estimate Roman to detect ∼1000 f DM PBH microlensing events throughout its planned microlensing survey.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Discovery and Characterization of Two Ultrafaint Dwarfs outside the Halo of the Milky Way: Leo M and Leo K

Abstract We report the discovery of two ultrafaint dwarf galaxies, Leo M and Leo K, that lie outside the halo of the Milky Way (MW). Using Hubble Space Telescope imaging of the resolved stars, we create color–magnitude diagrams reaching the oldest main-sequence turnoff of each system and (i) fit for structural parameters of the galaxies; (ii) measure their distances using the luminosity of the horizontal branch stars; (iii) estimate integrated magnitudes and stellar masses; and (iv) reconstruct the star formation histories. Based on their location in the Local Group, neither galaxy is currently within the halo of the MW although Leo K is located ∼26 kpc from the low-mass galaxy Leo T and these two systems may have had a past interaction. Leo M and Leo K have stellar masses of 1.8 − 0.2 + 0.3 × 10 4 M ⊙ and 1.2 ± 0.2 × 10 4 M ⊙ , and were quenched 10.6 − 1.1 + 2.2 Gyr and 12.8 − 4.2 + 0.1 Gyr ago, respectively. Given that the galaxies are at farther distances from the MW, it is unlikely that they were quenched by environmental processing. Instead, given their low stellar masses, their early quenching timescales are consistent with the scenario that a combination of reionization and stellar feedback shut down star formation at early cosmic times.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Strong Gravitational Lens Is Worth a Thousand Dark Matter Halos: Inference on Small-scale Structure Using Sequential Methods

Strong gravitational lenses are a singular probe of the Universe’s small-scale structure—they are sensitive to the gravitational effects of low-mass (<10 10 M ⊙ ) halos even without a luminous counterpart. Recent strong-lensing analyses of dark matter structure rely on simulation-based inference (SBI). Modern SBI methods, which leverage neural networks as density estimators, have shown promise in extracting the halo-population signal. However, it is unclear whether the constraints from these models are limited by the methodology or the data. In this study, we introduce an accelerator-optimized simulation pipeline that can generate lens images with realistic subhalo populations in milliseconds. Leveraging this simulator, we identify the main limitation of our fiducial SBI analysis: training set size. We then adopt a sequential neural posterior estimation (SNPE) approach, allowing us to refine the training distribution to align with the observed data. Using only one-fifth as many mock Hubble Space Telescope images, SNPE matches the constraints on the low-mass halo population produced by our best nonsequential model. Our experiments suggest that an over 3 order-of-magnitude increase in training set size and GPU hours would be required to achieve an equivalent result without sequential methods. While the full potential of the existing lens sample remains to be explored, the notable improvement in constraining power enabled by our sequential approach highlights that current constraints are limited primarily by methodology and not the data itself. Moreover, our results emphasize the need to treat training set generation and model optimization as interconnected stages of any cosmological analysis using SBI.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗