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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 325 records · Page 18
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Stochastic fracture generation and thermo-hydro-mechanical modeling in an equivalent continuum framework for enhanced geothermal systems

Enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) involve fracturing low permeability material to establish well connectivity and then injecting and circulating fluid into the fractured subsurface for geothermal power production. Changes in fracture aperture from contraction of the cooling matrix rock may alter network connectivity and risk thermal short-circuiting. Thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) models are a useful tool to study these processes. However, as fracture networks are complex, and data may be limited, fracture networks in THM models are often stochastically generated. Given reliance on stochastic fracture networks and THM modeling to represent the subsurface and assess productivity of EGS, increased understanding of the influence of such statistically derived fracture networks on flow and heat transport in THM models is needed. Here, a new fracture process model is developed in the reactive transport code PFLOTRAN to stochastically generate fracture families and simulate changes in fracture aperture over time due to temperature changes of the rock matrix. Sixty-four different fracture networks ranging from well to poorly-connected, are modeled in PFLOTRAN with and without mechanical processes (THM vs TH). Results indicate that for well-connected fracture networks, thermal short-circuiting is less of a concern due to the abundance of available alternative flowpaths. For poorly-connected fracture networks, inclusion of mechanical processes showed steep thermal drawdown coincident with increase in fracture aperture along developing colder flowpaths, demonstrating the risk of thermal short-circuiting. Simulations with additional, larger fractures engineered to establish connectivity in a poorly-fractured subsurface, indicate that while stochastic variation of fracture orientation of the background network had limited influence, such variation in the engineered fractures significantly affected flow and heat transport.

Discrete fracture networks (DFN)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Structure–Property Relationships of Recycled Lithium-Ion Battery Cathodes: Microstructure Optimization Using Virtual Materials Testing

The increasing demand for sustainable battery technologies requires effective recycling strategies for end-of-life lithium-ion battery cathodes. In this study, virtual materials testing, a well-established framework for modeling conventionally manufactured NMC-based cathodes, is applied to partially recycled cathodes. To this end, virtual cathodes consisting of mixtures of pristine and recycled NMC particles are utilized to systematically analyze structure–property relationships depending on mixing ratios and different spatial arrangement strategies. For this purpose, a stochastic 3D model is developed that is capable of generating virtual cathodes with arbitrary volume fractions of active materials and mixing ratios of pristine and recycled NMC particles. Particularly, the stochastic 3D model can mimic the different size distributions of pristine and recycled particles that are observed in image data. Additionally, the model allows the structuring of pristine and recycled NMC either uniformly mixed or layer-wise arranged, mimicking single- and dual-layer cathodes. Subsequently, a systematic computational analysis is conducted to assess the influence of increasing active material ratios of recycled particles, ranging from 0 % to 100 %, while maintaining a constant overall active material volume fraction. The impact of particle mixing on cathode performance is evaluated by examining transport-relevant geometrical descriptors and effective properties, such as geodesic tortuosity, specific surface area, and tortuosity factor.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
NASA NTRS1995

An extended structure-based model based on a stochastic eddy-axis evolution equation

We have proposed and implemented an extension of the structure-based model for weak deformations. It was shown that the extended model will correctly reduce to the form of standard k-e models for the case of equilibrium under weak mean strain. The realizability of the extended model is guaranteed by the method of its construction. The predictions of the proposed model were very good for rotating homogeneous shear flows and for irrotational axisymmetric contraction, but were seriously deficient in the case of plane strain and axisymmetric expansion. We have concluded that the problem behind these difficulties lies in the algebraic constitutive equation relating the Reynolds stresses to the structure parameters rather than in the slow model developed here. In its present form, this equation assumes that under irrotational strain the principal axes of the Reynolds stresses remain locked onto those of the eddy-axis tensor. This is correct in the RDT limit, but inappropriate under weaker mean strains, when the non-linear eddy-eddy interactions tend to misalign the two sets of principal axes and create some non-zero theta and gamma.

Kassinos, S. C.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Stochastic Feedforward Control Technique

Class of commanded trajectories modeled as stochastic process. Advanced Transport Operating Systems (ATOPS) research and development program conducted by NASA Langley Research Center aimed at developing capabilities for increases in capacities of airports, safe and accurate flight in adverse weather conditions including shear, winds, avoidance of wake vortexes, and reduced consumption of fuel. Advances in techniques for design of modern controls and increased capabilities of digital flight computers coupled with accurate guidance information from Microwave Landing System (MLS). Stochastic feedforward control technique developed within context of ATOPS program.

Halyo, Nesim↗
NASA NTRS2003

Production of Loop-Top Hard X-Ray Emission

The main goal of this work has been to understand the particle acceleration mechanism (or mechanisms) in impulsive solar flares, using hard X-ray observations of high spatial and spectral resolution. Several new observations, including the observations by YOHKOH that reveal emission from both footpoints and loop tops, have suggested to us that a model employing stochastic acceleration is the most likely candidate for explaining energetic particles in a majority (if not all) of impulsive flares. In this model, most of the flare energy is initially converted into plasma waves and turbulence, which in turn can accelerate particles from thermal to relativistic energies on sub-second timescales. This research has provided important tools for the interpretation of the high spectral and spatial resolution observations obtained from the Ramaty High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager (RHESSI) . In the course of our research, we have focused on two different (but possibly related) stochastic acceleration models: (1) a model that employs high-frequency whistler turbulence and concentrates on the energetic electrons, and (2) a model that employs low frequency MHD waves, and is able to accelerate both the ambient electrons and ions.

Miller, James A.↗
NASA NTRS1975

Stochastic stability and instability of model ecosystems

In this work, we initiate a stability study of multispecies communities in stochastic environment by using Ito's differential equations as community models. By applying the direct method of Liapunov, we obtain sufficient conditions for stability and instability in the mean of the equilibrium populations. The conditions are expressed in terms of the dominant diagonal property of community matrices, which is a suitable mechanism for resolving the central problem of 'complexity vs stability' in model ecosystems. As a by-product of this analysis we exhibit important structural properties of the stochastic density-dependent models, and establish tolerance of community stability to a broad class of nonlinear time-varying perturbations.

Ladde, G. S.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Stochastic Optimization and Uncertainty Quantification of Natrium-based Nuclear-Renewable Energy Systems for Flexible Power Applications in Deregulated Markets

Rapid integration of variable renewable energy sources (VRES) has made modeling and stochastic optimization of hybrid energy systems crucial for studying their long-term performance and viability. However, most studies have focused on just historical data, which may be unreliable for capturing short-term fluctuations, rare events, and long-term patterns of energy demand, price, and the variability of renewable energy sources. For this study, optimal synthetic time series models were developed using Wasserstein distance. The models were validated by comparing the key statistical measures against those of the historical data. They were then used to optimize the integrated Natrium-style advanced energy systems and their long-term (30 years) economics. The stochastic model performs bi-level optimization to find the optimal sizes for the balance of plant and thermal energy storage, while also optimizing energy dispatch to achieve the maximum net present value. In studies of two deregulated markets (California ISO and the Electric Reliability Council of Texas), the integrated Natrium-style system performed better in CAISO than in ERCOT, given higher and more consistent electricity prices during peak-demand periods. The potentially enlarged cost associated with the variable operation and maintenance of the TES system also plays a significant role in driving the system sizing, thus its impacts on the system are investigated in detail through comparison against a baseline case. The study also finds that the bi-level optimization results based on stochastic gradient descent closely match the grid search results. The uncertainty quantification of the stochastic signals provides further NPV-related insights and probability distributions for the case studies. The normal standard error of the mean of NPV for the case with and without TES VOM for CAISO were found to be 7.73M (plus-minus sign) 1.09M USD and 104.99M (plus-minus sign) 1.25M USD, respectively based on a 95% confidence. Given the relatively small NPV variance based on 150 samples, the analysis affords the most robust possible prediction of the techno-economic performance of the integrated Natrium-style energy systems.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
NASA NTRS1983

Testing a dynamical model for mid-latitude sea surface temperature anomalies

The present investigation is concerned with the development and testing of a dynamical model for sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the midlatitudes. The model is an extension of the stochastic forcing model, suggested by Frankignoul and Hasselmann (1977), in which SST anomalies arise naturally as a response of the slowly varying upper ocean to the rapidly varying air-sea fluxes. The conducted analysis confirms strongly the validity of this model. The results suggest that advection by mean ocean currents plays an important role in some regions. Attention is given to the governing equations, a statistical model, SST anomaly advection, heat flux anomalies, wind-driven mass transport in the mixed layer, mixed-layer depth, aspects of model testing, and the atmospheric forcing.

Frankignoul, C.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Physical Models of Layered Polar Firn Brightness Temperatures from 0.5 to 2 GHz

We investigate physical effects influencing 0.5-2 GHz brightness temperatures of layered polar firn to support the Ultra Wide Band Software Defined Radiometer (UWBRAD) experiment to be conducted in Greenland and in Antarctica. We find that because ice particle grain sizes are very small compared to the 0.5-2 GHz wavelengths, volume scattering effects are small. Variations in firn density over cm- to m-length scales, however, cause significant effects. Both incoherent and coherent models are used to examine these effects. Incoherent models include a 'cloud model' that neglects any reflections internal to the ice sheet, and the DMRT-ML and MEMLS radiative transfer codes that are publicly available. The coherent model is based on the layered medium implementation of the fluctuation dissipation theorem for thermal microwave radiation from a medium having a nonuniform temperature. Density profiles are modeled using a stochastic approach, and model predictions are averaged over a large number of realizations to take into account an averaging over the radiometer footprint. Density profiles are described by combining a smooth average density profile with a spatially correlated random process to model density fluctuations. It is shown that coherent model results after ensemble averaging depend on the correlation lengths of the vertical density fluctuations. If the correlation length is moderate or long compared with the wavelength (approximately 0.6x longer or greater for Gaussian correlation function without regard for layer thinning due to compaction), coherent and incoherent model results are similar (within approximately 1 K). However, when the correlation length is short compared to the wavelength, coherent model results are significantly different from the incoherent model by several tens of kelvins. For a 10-cm correlation length, the differences are significant between 0.5 and 1.1 GHz, and less for 1.1-2 GHz. Model results are shown to be able to match the v-pol SMOS data closely and predict the h-pol data for small observation angles.

layered polar firn emission↗
NASA NTRS1990

Probabilistic high cycle fatigue failure analysis with application to liquid propellant rocket engines

A probabilistic high cycle fatigue (HCF) failure analysis of a welded duct in a rocket engine of the Space Shuttle main engine class is described. A state-of-the-art HCF failure prediction method was used in a Monte Carlo simulation to generate a distribution of failure lives. A stochastic stress/life model is used for material characterization, and a composite stress history is generated for accurately deriving the stress cycles for the fatigue-damage calculations. The HCF failure model expresses fatigue life as a function of stochastic parameters including environment, loads, material properties, geometry, and model specification errors. A series of HCF failure life analyses were performed to study the impact of a fixed parameter and to assess the importance of each stochastic input parameter through marginal analyses.

Sutharshana, S.↗
NASA NTRS1996

A Framework for the Optimization of Discrete-Event Simulation Models

With the growing use of computer modeling and simulation, in all aspects of engineering, the scope of traditional optimization has to be extended to include simulation models. Some unique aspects have to be addressed while optimizing via stochastic simulation models. The optimization procedure has to explicitly account for the randomness inherent in the stochastic measures predicted by the model. This paper outlines a general purpose framework for optimization of terminating discrete-event simulation models. The methodology combines a chance constraint approach for problem formulation, together with standard statistical estimation and analyses techniques. The applicability of the optimization framework is illustrated by minimizing the operation and support resources of a launch vehicle, through a simulation model.

Joshi, B. D.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Do Fractal Models of Clouds Produces the Right 3D Radiative Effects?

Stochastic fractal models of clouds are often used to study 3D radiative effects and their influence on the remote sensing of cloud properties. Since it is important that the cloud models produce a correct radiative response, some researchers require the model parameters to match observed cloud properties such as scale-independent optical thickness variability. Unfortunately, matching these properties does not necessarily imply that the cloud models will cause the right 3D radiative effects. First, the matched properties alone only influence the 3D effects but do not completely determine them. Second, in many cases the retrieved cloud properties have been already biased by 3D radiative effects, and so the models may not match the true real clouds. Finally, the matched cloud properties cannot be considered independent from the scales at which they have been retrieved. This paper proposes an approach that helps ensure that fractal cloud models are realistic and produce the right 3D effects. The technique compares the results of radiative transfer simulations for the model clouds to new direct observations of 3D radiative effects in satellite images.

Varnai, Tamas↗
NASA NTRS1992

The energy spectra of solar flare hydrogen, helium, oxygen, and iron - Evidence for stochastic acceleration

The time-integrated differential energy spectra of H, He, O, and Fe measured in 10 large flare events observed at 1 AU over the energy range of 0.3-80 MeV/nucleon showed consistent patterns in their spectral shapes: particles with larger mean mass-to-charge ratios were generally less abundant at higher energies. A steady state model of stochastic particle acceleration with rigidity-dependent diffusion coefficients fit the spectra best; spectra representative of diffusive shock acceleration also described the spectra of some events with the same number of free parameters, but often fell off faster in energy above 30 MeV per nucleon than the observations. The two model predictions differed most at energies near 0.1 MeV per nucleon, below the lowest energies observed in this study. The stochastic model quantitatively described the observed spectral ordering with less efficient acceleration of species with larger mean mass-to-charge ratios.

Mazur, J. E.↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Stochastic Gause Predator-Prey model: Noise-induced extinctions and invariance

We consider the Gause predator-prey with general bounded or sub‑linear functional responses, – which includes those of Holling types Ⅰ–Ⅳ. – and multiplicative Gaussian noise. In contrast to previous studies, the prey in our model follows logistic dynamics while the predator's population is solely regulated by consumption of the prey. To ensure well-posedeness, we derive explicit Lyapunov‐type criteria ensuring global positivity and moment boundedness of solutions. We find conditions for noise‑induced extinctions, proving that stochasticity can drive either population to collapse even when the deterministic analogue predicts stable coexistence. In the case when the predator becomes extinct, we establish a limiting distribution for the predator's population. Last, for functional responses of Holling type Ⅰ, we provide sufficient conditions on the intensity of the noise for the existence and uniqueness of a stationary distribution.

Gause model↗
NASA NTRS2019

A Fast Monte Carlo Method for Model-Based Prognostics Based on Stochastic Calculus

This work proposes a fast Monte Carlo method to solve differential equations utilized in model-based prognostics. The methodology is derived from the theory of stochastic calculus, and the goal of such a method is to speed up the estimation of the probability density functions describing the independent variable evolution over time. In the prognostic scenarios presented in this paper, the stochastic differential equations describe variables directly or indirectly related to the degradation of a monitored system. The method allows the estimation of the probability density functions by solving the deterministic equation and approximating the stochastic integrals using samples of the model noise. By so doing, the prognostic problem is solved without the Monte Carlo simulation based on Euler's forward method, which is typically the most time consuming task of the prediction stage. Three different prognostic scenarios are presented as proof of concept: (i) life prediction of electrolytic capacitors, (ii) remaining time to discharge of Lithium-ion batteries, and (iii) prognostic of cracked structures under fatigue loading. The paper shows how the method produces probability density functions that are statistically indistinguishable from the distributions estimated with Euler's forward Monte Carlo simulation. However, the proposed solution is orders of magnitude faster when computing the time-to-failure distribution of the monitored system. The approach may enable complex real-time prognostics and health management solutions with limited computing power.

stochastic calculus↗
NASA NTRS2018

A Fast Monte Carlo Method for Model-Based Prognostics Based on Stochastic Calculus

This work proposes a fast Monte Carlo method to solve differential equations utilized in model-based prognostics. The methodology is derived from the theory of stochastic calculus, and the goal of such a method is to speed up the estimation of the probability density functions describing the independent variable evolution over time. In the prognostic scenarios presented in this paper, the stochastic differential equations describe variables directly or indirectly related to the degradation of a monitored system. The method allows the estimation of the probability density functions by solving the deterministic equation and approximating the stochastic integrals using samples of the model noise. By so doing, the prognostic problem is solved without the Monte Carlo simulation based on Euler's forward method, which is typically the most time consuming task of the prediction stage. Three different prognostic scenarios are presented as proof of concept: (i) life prediction of electrolytic capacitors, (ii) remaining time to discharge of Lithium-ion batteries, and (iii) prognostic of cracked structures under fatigue loading. The paper shows how the method produces probability density functions that are statistically indistinguishable from the distributions estimated with Euler's forward Monte Carlo simulation. However, the proposed solution is orders of magnitude faster when computing the time-to-failure distribution of the monitored system. The approach may enable complex real-time prognostics and health management solutions with limited computing power.

Corbetta, M.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Modeling heart rate variability by stochastic feedback

We consider the question of how the cardiac rhythm spontaneously self-regulates and propose a new mechanism as a possible answer. We model the neuroautonomic regulation of the heart rate as a stochastic feedback system and find that the model successfully accounts for key characteristics of cardiac variability, including the 1/f power spectrum, the functional form and scaling of the distribution of variations of the interbeat intervals, and the correlations in the Fourier phases which indicate nonlinear dynamics.

Non-NASA Center↗
DOE OSTI2024

Stochastic Maxwell-Bloch equations for modeling amplified spontaneous emission

An approach for studying atom-radiation interaction has been developed, associating quantum operators with stochastic variables governed by discrete Heisenberg equations. This framework models general multilevel atomic systems using the paraxial approximation in both single- and multipass configurations. Simulation results for x-ray laser oscillators with parameters of interest are presented. Finally, the stochastic model is efficient to solve, as the required computational resources scale linearly with the number of emitters, and it may be applicable to various other quantum systems.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗