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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2023

Extinction Imaging Diagnostics for In Situ Quantification of Soot within Explosively Generated Fireballs

Fireballs produced from the detonation of high explosives often contain particulates primarily composed of various phases of carbon soot. The transport and concentration of these particulates is of interest for model validation and emission characterization. Here, this work proposes ultra-high-speed imaging techniques to observe a fireball's structure and optical depth. An extinction-based diagnostic applied at two wavelengths indicates that extinction scales inversely with wavelength, consistent with particles in the Rayleigh limit and dimensionless extinction coefficients which are independent of wavelength. Within current confidence bounds, the extinction-derived soot mass concentrations agree with expectations based upon literature reported soot yields. Results also identify areas of high uncertainty where additional work is recommended.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2024

RELAP5-3D validation studies based on the High Temperature Test facility

In the spring and summer of 2019, experiments were conducted at the High Temperature Test Facility (HTTF) that form the basis of an upcoming high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR) thermal hydraulics (T/H) benchmark. HTTF is an integral effects test facility for HTGR T/H modeling validation. This paper presents RELAP5-3D models of two of those experiments: PG-27, a pressurized conduction cooldown (PCC); and PG-29, a depressurized conduction cooldown (DCC). These models used the RELAP5-3D model of HTTF originally developed by Paul Bayless as a starting point. The sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification code, RAVEN was used to perform calibration studies for the steady-state portion of PG-27. Here we developed four PG-27 calibrations based on steady-state conditions. These calibrations all used an effective thermal conductivity equal to 36 % of the measured thermal conductivity, but they differed with respect to the frictional pressure drops and radial conduction models. These models all captured the trends in steady-state temperature distributions and transient temperature behavior well. All four calibrations show room for improvement in predicting the transient temperature rise. The smallest error in temperature rise during the transient was a 21 % underprediction, and the largest was a 48 % underprediction. The errors in transient temperature rise are largely a result of a mismatch in power density between the RELAP5-3D model and the experiment due to the location of active heater rods along the boundary between heat structures in the model. The best of these calibrations was applied to PG-29 to model the DCC. Once again, temperatures during the transient were underpredicted but trends in temperature were captured. The RELAP5-3D model captured trends in the data but could not reproduce measured temperatures exactly. This result is not attributed to deficiencies in the experimental data or to RELAP5–3D itself. Rather, this result likely arises due to the some of the assumptions and decisions made when the RELAP5-3D model was first developed, prior to the execution of HTTF experiments. An agreement in prediction of temperature trends but challenges reproducing HTTF temperatures within measurement uncertainty is consistent with previous analyses of HTTF in the literature. Future RELAP5-3D validation activities centered around HTTF may be able to provide greater insight into the code’s capabilities for HTGR modeling with a more finely nodalized model.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Editorial to the special issue on the 2015 TOUGH Symposium

This Special Issue of Transport in Porous Media features selected papers from the 2015 TOUGH Symposium, which took place on September 28–30, 2015, in Berkeley, California, USA. Such symposia are held every 3 years and are a forum where users of the TOUGH family of numerical simulators meet for an open exchange on the code applications and recent enhancements. The TOUGH codes (TOUGH is an acronym for Transport of Unsaturated Groundwater and Heat) were originally developed in the early 1980s for geothermal reservoir simulation by a team of researchers at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) headed by Karsten Pruess (see http://esd.lbl.gov/TOUGH). The TOUGH codes have a modular structure in which different fluid components can be incorporated into the code by means of a replaceable equation of state (EOS) package. Since its first release, a variety of important EOS modules have been developed, enabling the modeling of volatile organic compounds, decay chains of multiple radionuclides, gas hydrates, tight and shale gas behavior, enhanced oil recovery, and supercritical water and CO 2 . Derivatives and descendants of the basic TOUGH code include coupled multi-phase flow and reactive chemical transport; coupled thermo-hydrologic-mechanical processes; inverse modeling for parameter estimation, sensitivity analysis, and uncertainty quantification; and parallelization for multi-core PCs, workstation clusters, and supercomputers. The TOUGH codes have been applied to a large variety of problems, including geothermal and petroleum reservoir engineering, nuclear waste and CO 2 geologic sequestration, subsurface environmental remediation, methane gas hydrate production, compressed air energy storage, and many other energy and environmental applications. Finally, the international TOUGH user community currently numbers almost 400 organizations (research laboratories, government agencies, private companies, universities, etc.) in over 60 countries.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Probabilistic neural networks for improved analyses with phenomenological R -matrix

Here we present a method for measurement analyses based on probabilistic deep neural networks that provide several advantages over conventional analyses with phenomenological models. These include predicting physical quantities directly from data, the rapid generation of statistically robust uncertainties, and the ability to bypass some parameters that may induce ambiguities and complications in data analysis. As deep learning methods make predictions through “black boxes,” the uncertainty quantification is typically challenging. We use a probabilistic framework that provides thorough uncertainty quantification and is straightforward to follow in practice. With the network architecture based on the Transformer, we demonstrate the current method for predicting nuclear resonance parameters from scattering data using the phenomenological R-matrix model.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Extreme-Scale Bayesian Inference for Uncertainty Quantification of Complex Simulations

Uncertainty quantification (UQ)—that is, quantifying uncertainties in complex mathematical models and their large-scale computational implementations—is widely viewed as one of the outstanding challenges facing the field of CS&E over the coming decade. The EUREKA project set to address the most difficult class of UQ problems: those for which both the underlying PDE model as well as the uncertain parameters are of extreme scale. In the project we worked on these extreme-scale challenges in the following four areas: 1. Scalable parallel algorithms for sampling and characterizing the posterior distribution that exploit the structure of the underlying PDEs and parameter-to-observable map. These include structure-exploiting versions of the randomized maximum likelihood method, which aims to overcome the intractability of employing conventional MCMC methods for solving extreme-scale Bayesian inversion problems by appealing to and adapting ideas from large-scale PDE-constrained optimization, which have been very successful at exploring high-dimensional spaces. 2. Scalable parallel algorithms for construction of prior and likelihood functions based on learning methods and non-parametric density estimation. Constructing problem-specific priors remains a critical challenge in Bayesian inference, and more so in high dimensions. Another challenge is construction of likelihood functions that capture unmodeled couplings between observations and parameters. We will create parallel algorithms for non-parametric density estimation using high dimensional N-body methods and combine them with supervised learning techniques for the construction of priors and likelihood functions. 3. Bayesian inadequacy models, which augment physics models with stochastic models that represent their imperfections. The success of the Bayesian inference framework depends on the ability to represent the uncertainty due to imperfections of the mathematical model of the phenomena of interest. This is a central challenge in UQ, especially for large-scale models. We propose to develop the mathematical tools to address these challenges in the context of extreme-scale problems. 4. Parallel scalable algorithms for Bayesian optimal experimental design (OED). Bayesian inversion yields quantified uncertainties in the model parameters, which can be propagated forward through the model to yield uncertainty in outputs of interest. This opens the way for designing new experiments to reduce the uncertainties in the model parameters and model predictions. Such experimental design problems have been intractable for large-scale problems using conventional methods; we will create OED algorithms that exploit the structure of the PDE model and the parameter-to-output map to overcome these challenges. Parallel algorithms for these four problems were created, analyzed, prototyped, implemented, tuned, and scaled up for leading-edge supercomputers, including UT-Austin’s own 10 petaflops Stampede system, ANL’s Mira system, and ORNL’s Titan system. While our focus is on fundamental mathematical/computational methods and algorithms, we will assess our methods on model problems derived from several DOE mission applications, including multiscale mechanics and ice sheet dynamics.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Bayesian discovery of optimal reduced order models from mechanistic and experimental data: A case study of Pd penetration in TRISO fuels using BISON

TRistructural ISOtropic (TRISO) particles rely on a silicon carbide (SiC) layer as the primary structural material and barrier to metallic fission products (FPs) release. Accurate prediction of palladium (Pd) transport and penetration is therefore critical for qualifying TRISO fuels for advanced reactors. The empirical correlation for Pd penetration in BISON is derived from historical particle-fuel data, but cannot explain the large scatter in the experimental data that arises from varying experimental conditions. To aid fuel qualification, we previously developed a mechanistic reduced order model (ROM) using BISON that resolves these dependencies. Here, in this work we build on that mechanistic ROM and perform validation and quantify its uncertainty using Bayesian uncertainty quantification (UQ). calibration against a suite of in-pile and out-of-pile experiments spanning particle compositions, geometries, and operating conditions, and we benchmark it against the empirical correlation. Bayesian UQ identifies influential parameters, calibrates them to data, and yields predictive intervals. Results show that while the empirical correlation can be tuned to fit a single experiment type, it transfers poorly; the mechanistic ROM sustains accuracy with credible uncertainty across disparate conditions. This demonstrates a practical path—via Bayesian UQ applied to mechanistic ROMs—to leverage single-effect experiments for inferring in-reactor behavior and supporting TRISO fuel qualification.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Elucidating the photodissociation fingerprint and quantifying the determination of organic hydroperoxides in gas-phase autoxidation

Hydroperoxides are formed in the atmospheric oxidation of volatile organic compounds, in the combustion autoxidation of fuel, in the cold environment of the interstellar medium, and also in some catalytic reactions. They play crucial roles in the formation and aging of secondary organic aerosols and in fuel autoignition. However, the concentration of organic hydroperoxides is seldom measured, and typical estimates have large uncertainties. In this work, we developed a mild and environmental-friendly method for the synthesis of alkyl hydroperoxides (ROOH) with various structures, and we systematically measured the absolute photoionization cross-sections (PICSs) of the ROOHs using synchrotron vacuum ultraviolet-photoionization mass spectrometry (SVUV-PIMS). A chemical titration method was combined with an SVUV-PIMS measurement to obtain the PICS of 4-hydroperoxy-2-pentanone, a typical molecule for combustion and atmospheric autoxidation ketohydroperoxides (KHPs). We found that organic hydroperoxide cations are largely dissociated by loss of OOH. This fingerprint was used for the identification and accurate quantification of the organic peroxides, and it can therefore be used to improve models for autoxidation chemistry. The synthesis method and photoionization dataset for organic hydroperoxides are useful for studying the chemistry of hydroperoxides and the reaction kinetics of the hydroperoxy radicals and for developing and evaluating kinetic models for the atmospheric autoxidation and combustion autoxidation of the organic compounds.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Deep-learning-aided forward optical coherence tomography endoscope for percutaneous nephrostomy guidance

Percutaneous renal access is the critical initial step in many medical settings. In order to obtain the best surgical outcome with minimum patient morbidity, an improved method for access to the renal calyx is needed. In our study, we built a forward-view optical coherence tomography (OCT) endoscopic system for percutaneous nephrostomy (PCN) guidance. Porcine kidneys were imaged in our experiment to demonstrate the feasibility of the imaging system. Three tissue types of porcine kidneys (renal cortex, medulla, and calyx) can be clearly distinguished due to the morphological and tissue differences from the OCT endoscopic images. To further improve the guidance efficacy and reduce the learning burden of the clinical doctors, a deep-learning-based computer aided diagnosis platform was developed to automatically classify the OCT images by the renal tissue types. Convolutional neural networks (CNN) were developed with labeled OCT images based on the ResNet34, MobileNetv2 and ResNet50 architectures. Nested cross-validation and testing was used to benchmark the classification performance with uncertainty quantification over 10 kidneys, which demonstrated robust performance over substantial biological variability among kidneys. ResNet50-based CNN models achieved an average classification accuracy of 82.6%±3.0%. The classification precisions were 79%±4% for cortex, 85%±6% for medulla, and 91%±5% for calyx and the classification recalls were 68%±11% for cortex, 91%±4% for medulla, and 89%±3% for calyx. Interpretation of the CNN predictions showed the discriminative characteristics in the OCT images of the three renal tissue types. The results validated the technical feasibility of using this novel imaging platform to automatically recognize the images of renal tissue structures ahead of the PCN needle in PCN surgery.

Wang, Chen↗
DOE OSTI2025

Yes, No, Maybe So: Human Factors Considerations for Fostering Calibrated Trust in Foundation Models Under Uncertainty

High-stakes analytical environments require analysts to evaluate evidence and generate conclusions to inform critical decisions often under conditions of uncertainty. Probabilistic decision-making based on incomplete or inaccurate information can reduce productivity, compromise national interests, and endanger public safety. Researchers are developing expert systems built on foundation models (FMs) to support analysts’ decision-making processes by enabling human-artificial intelligence (AI) teaming, in part through the quantification and expression of uncertainty information. As FMs continue to mature, it is imperative to correspondingly consider analysts’ needs for appropriately interpreting and using uncertainty information. However, prior research indicates that it remains unclear how analysts engage with FM-generated uncertainty information and the extent to which these interactions influence trust in, and reliance on, expert systems. We plan to review the state of the science and conduct an exploratory, qualitative study to (a) understand how properly communicated uncertainty can foster calibrated trust and appropriate reliance and (b) identify approaches for effectively conveying FM-generated uncertainty information during analytical workflows. We will administer semi-structured interviews with analysts from a specific high-stakes analytical environment to collect their current experiences with job-related uncertainty and their impressions when viewing FM-generated uncertainty information. During the interview protocol, participants will be presented with several different FM outputs and invited to discuss their thoughts and beliefs about the uncertainty information displayed. Participants may provide insights into how trust and reliance may be influenced by uncertainty. The results of this study will help us to better understand how analysts currently interpret and use uncertainty information. Our findings may inform human factors recommendations for effectively conveying uncertainty information to foster calibrated trust in, and appropriate reliance on, expert systems. Interaction designers and FM developers can use this knowledge to enhance human-AI teaming and ensure the responsible deployment of FM-based expert systems in analytical workflows.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2018

Activation product interpretation of structural material for fast critical assemblies

This work evaluates whether activation products in stainless steel components can be used to infer initial conditions (i.e. alloy composition, position within the fluence, etc.) and the associated uncertainties in a fast neutron irradiation. Activation measurements of stainless steel and elemental components were obtained through a Flattop critical assembly irradiation experiment. A forward model was developed, utilizing MCNP6.1 and FISPACT ii, to estimate activation product concentrations from several input parameters: alloy composition, source specifications, and foil positioning. While some of the calculated activation product concentrations agreed fairly well with measurements, some isotopics (i.e. 57 Co) had large discrepancies. It became clear that uncertainties in both measurements and nuclear data drove this divergence for select isotopics, and the quantification of this impact was needed. By treating both experimental measurement and nuclear data uncertainty in a Bayesian framework, it was possible to infer unknowns from given activation ratios. The developed approach showed promise in constraining mass parameters, but degeneracy existed when considering position within the neutron flux. Higher threshold reactions could potentially break the degeneracy, such as 57 Co, but uncertainty estimation needs to be better resolved for those isotopes.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Uncertainty-Aware Machine Learning for Small-Angle X-ray Scattering Analysis in Autonomous Experimentation

Small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) is a powerful high-throughput characterization tool for probing nanoscale structure in native sample environments, providing real-time morphological information such as nanoparticle size and shape during synthesis. However, automated SAXS data analysis for extracting meaningful structural parameters is non-trivial and remains a bottleneck in closed-loop experimentation towards autonomous materials discovery, which demands fast, reliable, and uncertainty-aware data analysis. Here, we develop a machine-learning approach for automated SAXS analysis tailored to closed-loop nanoparticle synthesis. A Random Forest (RF) regression model is trained on 100,000 synthetic SAXS curves generated from polydisperse spherical nanoparticles with realistic background contributions. Using normalized one-dimensional SAXS intensity profiles as input, the RF model directly predicts nanoparticle radius, size polydispersity, and background parameters, while the ensemble standard deviation across trees provides built-in uncertainty quantification (UQ). On synthetic data, we show that combining fit-quality metrics (R 2 , MAE) with thresholds on prediction uncertainty reliably identifies accurate parameter estimates without access to ground truth. We then apply the trained model to 365 experimental SAXS profiles of citrate-reduced gold nanoparticles synthesized using an automated droplet-flow microreactor with in situ SAXS at a synchrotron beamline, classifying the results into high- and low-confidence subsets based on UQ metrics. Finally, we integrate RF-based SAXS analysis into a simulated closed-loop optimization campaign using Gaussian process Bayesian optimization to minimize nanoparticle polydispersity, benchmarking against conventional automated Levenberg–Marquardt fitting. The RF-guided campaign exhibits substantially faster convergence and lower relative opportunity cost (∼0.07 vs ∼0.3), demonstrating that uncertainty-aware machine-learning SAXS analysis significantly enhances the efficiency and robustness of autonomous nanomaterials synthesis workflows.

Bayesian optimization↗
DOE OSTI2020

Risk-Informed MultiPphysics BestEestimate Plus Uncertainties (BEPU) Application Development of RELAP5-3D Perturbation Model

The United States nuclear industry is facing a strong challenge to ensure maximum safety while enhancing economic benefit. Safety is a key parameter to all aspects related to light water reactor (LWR) nuclear power plants (NPPs), especially cost savings. Since the goal is to extend the lifetimes of these NPPs, the traditional deterministic safety concept may not guarantee a current economic asset. The Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program has been promoting a wide range of research and development (R&D) in this field to maximize the safety, economics, and performance of these NPPs through improved scientific understanding. One of the best practices to achieve this goal is to identify and optimize safety margins, which can lead to cost reduction. To do this, under the LWRS framework, the Risk-Informed Systems Analysis (RISA) Pathway will focus on the optimization of safety margin and minimization of uncertainties to ensure both safety and economics at the highest level. The RISA Pathway will provide enhanced capabilities for analyzing and characterizing LWR systems performance by developing and demonstrating methods, tools, and data to enable risk-informed margins management (RIMM). The goals of the RISA Pathway are twofold: (1) deploy the risk-informed tools and methods that enable better representation of safety margins and factors that contribute to cost and safety; and (2) conduct advanced risk assessment applications with industry to support margin management strategies that enable more cost-effective plant operation. The tools and methods provided by the RISA Pathway will support effective margin management for both active and passive safety systems, structures, and components (SSC) of an NPP. The tools and methods used in the RISA Pathway should have high confidence and highest technical maturity for and implementation to industry at its current setting. They should also have a capability to support risk-informed decision making for both probabilistic and deterministic elements of safety. The RISA Pathway will, therefore, perform a comprehensive assessment of verification and validation (V&V) status of RISA Toolkit to enhance credibility RISA Toolkit which be used by industry. This report summarizes RELAP5-3D development activities for best estimated and uncertainty (BEPU) capability to support ongoing RISA Pathway pilot projects for risk informed uncertainty quantification applications. Work scope includes (1) development of initial perturbation model for selected closure laws and (2) testing of suitable probability distribution functions (PDF) for the selected correlations. Developed BEPU modules are tested with selected separate effect cases and compared with conventional thermal-hydraulics model.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluation of PBR Spent Fuel Criticality and Dose Rate Compliance for Storage and Transportation

Spent tri-structural isotropic (TRISO)–based fuels have a strong track record in storage and transportation without documented incidents. This work seeks to reduce uncertainty to aid in more informed spent fuel management of TRISO-based fuels by modeling both fresh and spent pebble bed reactor (PBR) fuel and comparing the results to the regulatory standards from 10 CFR 71. SCALE was used for all modeling due to it having fast and accurate methods for handling PBR fuel modeling, as well as having an efficient method for shielding calculations in monaco with automated variance reduction using importance calculations (MAVRIC), which utilizes the consistent adjoint-driven importance sampling (CADIS) and the forward-weighted consistent adjoint-driven importance sampling (FW-CADIS) methods. KENO-VI was used for all criticality calculations, TSUNAMI was used for uncertainty quantification on k-effective, TRITON and the Oak Ridge isotope generation code (ORIGEN) were both used for depletion of the fuel, and MAVRIC was used for shielding calculations. For criticality assessments, this study focused on the requirement that the value of the neutron multiplication factor, k-effective (k-eff), would not exceed a peak value of 0.95, including uncertainty, with 95% confidence. Criticality was initially examined by modeling fresh fuel from three different designs—HTR-10 fuel, PBMR-400 fuel, and demonstration fuel representative of a TRISO-fueled modern high-temperature gas reactor (HTGR) design, henceforth referred to as Demo HTGR—and placing them into various sized containers with conditions described in 10 CFR 71 to quantify the peak k-eff state. When the peak value of 0.95 k-eff was exceeded, mitigation methods were examined in those scenarios. Burnup credit, pebble displacement in areas of strong neutron multiplication, and random pebble replacement using pebbles of various compositions and replacement fractions were examined. In summary, the criticality of PBR fuels can be well accounted for by restricting container size, taking credit for burnup, or by displacing/replacing pebbles. Uncertainty of the k-eff due to nuclear data uncertainties was recorded at ~0.6644%Δk/k, or roughly 664% mil (pcm). The nuclear data–induced uncertainty was relatively small and should not require significant modification in the design to be accounted for. Revisions to the evaluated nuclear data file values have been shown to have a larger impact than nuclear data–induced uncertainty. For dose rate aspects, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission regulations require a maximum dose rate of 10 millirem per hour (mrem/h) at 2 meters. In examining the dose rate behavior of spent PBR fuel, the representative Demo HTGR fuel was modeled exclusively due to it possessing the highest target burnup of the examined fuels. Equilibrium cycle modeling methods were used to produce a higher-fidelity discharge isotopic composition than simple assumptions, such as reflected pebbles. The discharge composition was used as a source term in the fixed-source transport shielding calculations, and dose rates were calculated at 2 m for the shortest possible cooling time. The low concentration of fuel material led to dose rates that were in line with regulatory limits, despite the high burnup when compared to traditional light water reactor fuels. In conclusion, the methods employed in this study would require more work to further verify and validate and are limited to the criticality and dose rate analyses performed.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Machine learning for graph-based representations of three-dimensional discrete fracture networks

Structural and topological information play a key role in modeling flow and transport through fractured rock in the subsurface. Discrete fracture network (DFN) computational suites such as dfnWorks (Hyman et al. Comput. Geosci. 84, 10–19 2015) are designed to simulate flow and transport in such porous media. Flow and transport calculations reveal that a small backbone of fractures exists, where most flow and transport occurs. Restricting the flowing fracture network to this backbone provides a significant reduction in the network’s effective size. However, the particle-tracking simulations needed to determine this reduction are computationally intensive. Such methods may be impractical for large systems or for robust uncertainty quantification of fracture networks, where thousands of forward simulations are needed to bound system behavior. In this paper, we develop an alternative network reduction approach to characterizing transport in DFNs, by combining graph theoretical and machine learning methods. We consider a graph representation where nodes signify fractures and edges denote their intersections. Using random forest and support vector machines, we rapidly identify a subnetwork that captures the flow patterns of the full DFN, based primarily on node centrality features in the graph. Our supervised learning techniques train on particle-tracking backbone paths found by dfnWorks, but run in negligible time compared to those simulations. In conclusion, we find that our predictions can reduce the network to approximately 20% of its original size, while still generating breakthrough curves consistent with those of the original network.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2016

Data-driven probability concentration and sampling on manifold

A new methodology is proposed for generating realizations of a random vector with values in a finite-dimensional Euclidean space that are statistically consistent with a dataset of observations of this vector. The probability distribution of this random vector, while a priori not known, is presumed to be concentrated on an unknown subset of the Euclidean space. A random matrix is introduced whose columns are independent copies of the random vector and for which the number of columns is the number of data points in the dataset. The approach is based on the use of (i) the multidimensional kernel-density estimation method for estimating the probability distribution of the random matrix, (ii) a MCMC method for generating realizations for the random matrix, (iii) the diffusion-maps approach for discovering and characterizing the geometry and the structure of the dataset, and (iv) a reduced-order representation of the random matrix, which is constructed using the diffusion-maps vectors associated with the first eigenvalues of the transition matrix relative to the given dataset. The convergence aspects of the proposed methodology are analyzed and a numerical validation is explored through three applications of increasing complexity. The proposed method is found to be robust to noise levels and data complexity as well as to the intrinsic dimension of data and the size of experimental datasets. Both the methodology and the underlying mathematical framework presented in this paper contribute new capabilities and perspectives at the interface of uncertainty quantification, statistical data analysis, stochastic modeling and associated statistical inverse problems.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2020

Uncertainty quantification of an empirical shell-model interaction using principal component analysis

Recent investigations have emphasized the importance of uncertainty quantification (UQ) in nuclear theory. Here, we carry out UQ for configuration-interaction shell-model calculations in the 1$\textit{s}$–0$\textit{d}$ valence space, investigating the sensitivity of observables to perturbations in the 66 parameters (matrix elements) of a high-quality empirical interaction. The large parameter space makes computing the corresponding Hessian numerically costly, so we compare a cost-effective approximation, using the Feynman-Hellmann theorem, to the full Hessian and find it works well. Diagonalizing the Hessian yields the principal components of the interaction: linear combinations of parameters ordered by sensitivity. This approximately decoupled distribution of parameters facilitates theoretical uncertainty propagation onto structure observables: electromagnetic transitions, Gamow-Teller decays, and dark matter-nucleus scattering matrix elements.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Multiscale analysis in solids with unseparated scales: fine-scale recovery, error estimation, and coarse-scale adaptivity

There are several engineering applications in which the assumptions of homogenization and scale separation may be violated, in particular, for metallic structures constructed through additive manufacturing. Instead of resorting to direct numerical simulation of the macroscale system with an embedded fine scale, an alternative approach is to use an approximate macroscale constitutive model, but then estimate the model-form error using a posteriori error estimation techniques and subsequently adapt the macroscale model to reduce the error for a given boundary value problem and quantity of interest. Here, we investigate this approach to multiscale analysis in solids with unseparated scales using the example of an additively manufactured metallic structure consisting of a polycrystalline microstructure that is neither periodic nor statistically homogeneous. As a first step to the general nonlinear case, we focus here on linear elasticity in which each grain within the polycrystal is linear elastic but anisotropic.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2013

New Methods of Uncertainty Quantification for Mixed Discrete-Continuous Variable Models

The scale and complexity of problems such as designing power grids or planning for climate change is growing rapidly, driving the development of complicated computer models. More complex models have longer run times and incorporate larger numbers of inputs, both continuous and discrete. For example, a detailed physics model may have continuous variables such as temperature, height or pressure along with discrete variables that indicate the choice of a material for a particular piece or the model to be used to calculate air flow. A power grid design model may have continuous variables such as generation capacity, power flow or demand along with discrete variables such as number of generators, number of transmission lines or binary variables to indicate whether or not a node is chosen for generation expansion. A growing awareness of uncertainty and the desire to make risk-informed decisions is causing uncertainty quantification (UQ) to be more routine and often required. UQ provides the underpinnings necessary to establish confidence in models and their use; therefore, much time and effort is being invested in creating efficient approaches for UQ. However, these efforts have been focused on models that take continuous variables as inputs. When discrete inputs are thrown into the mix, the basic approach is to repeat the UQ analysis for each combination of discrete inputs or some subset thereof; this rapidly becomes intractable. Because of the computational complexity inherent in mixed discrete-continuous models, researchers will focus on the uncertainty in their particular problem finding ways to take advantage of symmetries, simplifications or structures. For example, uncertainty propagation in certain dynamical systems can be efficiently carried out after various decomposition steps or uncertainty propagation in stochastic programming is confined to scenario generation. Unfortunately models are not always available for such machinations: models may be embedded in legacy codes, may utilize commercial off the shelf codes or may be created by stringing a series of codes together. It is also time consuming to start each problem from scratch; worse there may not be any simplifications or symmetries to take advantage of. For these situations a UQ method developed for any black box function is necessary. This report documents a new conceptual model for performing UQ for mixed discrete-continuous models which not only applies to any simulator function, but allows the use of the efficient UQ methods that have been developed for continuous inputs only. The conceptual model is presented and an estimation procedure is fleshed out for one class of problems. This is applied to variations of a mixed discrete-continuous optimization test problem. This procedure provides comparable results to a benchmark solution with fewer function evaluations.

Bauman, Lara E.↗