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A downdraft vortex ring in a stratified atmosphere exhibits universal attraction for nearby vertical magnetic flux bundles. It is speculated that the magnetic fields emerging through the surface of the sun are individually encircled by one or more subsurface vortex rings, providing an important part of the observed clustering of magnetic fibrils to form pores and sunspots.
The acoustic scattering properties of a large sunspot are determined from a Fourier-Hankel decomposition of p-mode amplitudes as measured from a 68-hr subset of a larger set of observations made at the South Pole in 1988. It is shown that significant improvement in the measurement of p-mode scattering amplitudes results from the increased temporal frequency resolution provided by these data. Scattering phase shifts are unambiguously determined for the first time, and the dependence of the p-mode phase shift and absorption with wavenumber and frequency is presented.
We present Stokes I Zeeman splitting measurements of sunspots using the highly sensitive (g = 3) Fe I line at a wavelength of 1.5649 micron. The splittings are compared with simultaneous intensity measurements in the adjacent continuum. The relation between magnetic field strength and temperature has a characteristic, nonlinear shape in all the spots studied. In the umbra, there is an approximately linear relation between B super 2 and T sub b, consistent with magnetohydrostatic equilibrium in a nearly vertical field. A distinct flattening of the B super 2 vs T sub b relationship in the inner penumbra may be due to changes in the lateral pressure balance as the magnetic field becomes more horizontal; spatially unresolved intensity inhomogeneities may also influence the observed relation.
High-resolution coronal observations with the Normal Incidence X-ray Telescope (NIXT) reveal previously unobserved structure in the magnetic fields above a sunspot. The X-ray images are precisely aligned with a continuum photospheric image taken at the same time. The X-ray brightness traces magnetic field lines and shows: (1) that none of the bright loops originate in the spot umbra and (2) that some field lines emerging from the inner penumbra connect to regions far away from the spot. Such large-scale structures must remain distinct from the shallowly inclined fields in the outer penumbra. In particular, they cannot be involved in any interchange between the bright and dark filaments. This imposes constraints on models of penumbral convection.
The evolution of solar polar magnetic fields between Carrington rotations 1815 and 1834 is described using magnetic data from the Mount Wilson Observatory and the National Solar Observatory. The observations are compared with simulations using the flux transport equation. It is shown that the evolution of the polar field cannot be reproduced accurately by simulations of the diffusion and poleward drift of the emerging active regions at sunspot latitudes. Histograms of the distribution of the field intensities derived from daily magnetograms are presented which indicate that flux emerges at high latitudes and contributes to the evolution of the magnetic patterns.
A spherical harmonic decomposition of the p-modes into inward and outward propagating waves is employed to investigate the absorption of solar p-modes by an isolated sunspot. The absorption coefficient (averaged over frequency and azimuthal order) is found to increase with increasing horizontal wavenumber k over the range 0-0.8/Mm. For larger horizontal wavenumbers, in the range 0.8-1.5/Mm, the absorption coefficient decreases with increasing k. The absorption along each individual p-mode ridge tends to peak at an intermediate value of the spherical harmonic degree in the range 200-400. The highest absorption is found along the p(1) ridge, and the absorption decreases with increasing radial order.
The Evershed flow at photospheric heights in a sunspot penumbra is modeled theoretically as a siphon flow along individual, arched magnetic flux tubes embedded in an atmosphere permeated by a uniform magnetic field. This approach is suggested by the recent evidence that the penumbra is a deep structure with a significant amount of emerging flux, rather than a shallow structure overlying field-free gas. The model resolves two problems associated with siphon-flow models based on a shallow penumbra: it produces arched flux tubes of sufficient horizontal extent, and it explains how the optically thin flux tubes carrying the Evershed flow can appear dark.
The thermal contrast alpha, and the umbra-penumbra A(u)/A(p) were calculated for 63 sunspots of various sizes and morphologies. Results show that values of alpha ranged from 0.1807 to 0.4266 and A(u)/A(p) ranged from 0.0089 to 0.4899. The values of thermal contrast and umbra-penumbra were compared with complexity ratings, magnetic field strength, and time factors and found to be independent of these parameters.
Measurements of umbral-to-quiet sun and umbral-to-plage contrast in five active regions have been obtained in the transition region emission lines Si IV 1402.77 A, C IV 1548.19 A, and O V 1371.29 A, using the Ultraviolet Spectrometer and Polarimeter on the Solar Maximum Mission. The umbral transition region in these lines appears generally indistinguishable from the quiet transition region. In addition, high-resolution profiles of the C IV lines 1548.19 A, 1550.77 A in the umbrae of eight individual sunspots in different active regions show only weak, mostly subsonic, redshifted components. This result differs sharply from the observations of multiple, strong, often supersonic downflows observed with the HRTS instrument (e.g., Brekke et al., 1987).
High spatial resolution movies of sunspots taken at the Swedish Solar Observatory on La Palma reveal that the Evershed effect is time dependent. Outward proper motions are visible in both the continuum and Dopplergrams. These can be tracked over most of the width of the penumbra and overlap regions that show inward moving penubral grains. The radial spacing between the moving structures is about 2000 km, and they exhibit irregular repetitive behavior with a typical interval of 10 minutes. These are probably the cause of 10 minutes oscillations sometimes seen in a penumbral power spectra. Higher velocities are spatially correlated with the relatively darker regions between bright filaments. Regions with a strong variation in the Doppler signal show peak-to-peak modulations of 1 km/s on an average velocity of about 3-4 km/s. The proper motion velocity is approximately constant from the iner penumbra and generally larger than the Doppler velocity when both are interpreted as projections of horizontal motion. Regions where thay are consistent suggest a typical horizontal velocity of 3.5 km/s. Some proper motion velocites as high as 7 km/s are seen, but these are less certain. The temporal behavoir shows a correlation between increased Doppler signal and increased continuum intensity, the opposite of the spatial correlation. When spatially averaged across filaments and over time, the averaged Evershed effect has a peak horizontal component near the outer edge of the penumbra of 2.0 km/s with evidence for a 200-400 m/s upward component. The latter depends on an uncertain absolute velocity calibration. If real it could be an actual upward component or a penumbral analogue of the convective blueshift seen in the quiet Sun.
This contract started as a three-year research study of sunspots and magnetic flux tubes in the solar atmosphere, using tunable filter images collected with a CCD camera during observing runs at the Canary Islands observatories in Spain. Scientific results are reported at conferences and published in the appropriate journals. The contract is being performed by the Solar and Astrophysics Laboratory (S&AL), part of the Lockheed Palo Alto Advanced Technology Center (ATC) of Lockheed Martin Missiles and Space (LMMS). The principal investigator is Dr. Alan Title, and the research is done by him and other scientific staff at S&AL, often in collaboration with visiting scientists and students from other institutions. An extension to the contract has been awarded for developing the Solar Lite technology demonstration telescope, a 1-meter solar telescope with silicon carbide optics made at the Vavilov Optical Institute in St. Petersburg, Russia. The highlights during this reporting period included the continuation of the fabrication efforts on the Solar Lite optical components at Vavilov State Optical Institute, including the completion of the Gregorian telescope field stop. A visit was made to the Vavilov Institute to review the progress and inspect the optical components.
Spotless days are examined as a predictor for the size and timing of a sunspot cycle. For cycles 16-23 the first spotless day for a new cycle, which occurs during the decline of the old cycle, is found to precede minimum amplitude for the new cycle by about approximately equal to 34 mo, having a range of 25-40 mo. Reports indicate that the first spotless day for cycle 24 occurred in January 2004, suggesting that minimum amplitude for cycle 24 should be expected before April 2007, probably sometime during the latter half of 2006. If true, then cycle 23 will be classified as a cycle of shorter period, inferring further that cycle 24 likely will be a cycle of larger than average minimum and maximum amplitudes and faster than average rise, peaking sometime in 2010.
The level of geomagnetic activity near the time of solar activity minimum has been shown to be a reliable indicator for the amplitude of the following solar activity maximum. The geomagnetic activity index aa can be split into two components: one associated with solar flares, prominence eruptions, and coronal mass ejections which follows the solar activity cycle and a second component associated with recurrent high speed solar wind streams which is out of phase with the solar activity cycle. This second component often peaks before solar activity minimum and has been one of the most reliable indicators for the amplitude of the following maximum. The size of the recent maximum in this second component indicates that solar activity cycle 24 will be much higher than average - similar in size to cycles 21 and 22 with a peak smoothed sunspot number of 160 plus or minus 25.
For 1996 .2006 (cycle 23), 12-month moving averages of the aa geomagnetic index strongly correlate (r = 0.92) with 12-month moving averages of solar wind speed, and 12-month moving averages of the number of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) (halo and partial halo events) strongly correlate (r = 0.87) with 12-month moving averages of sunspot number. In particular, the minimum (15.8, September/October 1997) and maximum (38.0, August 2003) values of the aa geomagnetic index occur simultaneously with the minimum (376 km/s) and maximum (547 km/s) solar wind speeds, both being strongly correlated with the following recurrent component (due to high-speed streams). The large peak of aa geomagnetic activity in cycle 23, the largest on record, spans the interval late 2002 to mid 2004 and is associated with a decreased number of halo and partial halo CMEs, whereas the smaller secondary peak of early 2005 seems to be associated with a slight rebound in the number of halo and partial halo CMEs. Based on the observed aaM during the declining portion of cycle 23, RM for cycle 24 is predicted to be larger than average, being about 168+/-60 (the 90% prediction interval), whereas based on the expected aam for cycle 24 (greater than or equal to 14.6), RM for cycle 24 should measure greater than or equal to 118+/-30, yielding an overlap of about 128+/-20.
Global warming/climate change has been a subject of scientific interest since the early 19th century. In particular, increases in the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) have long been thought to account for Earth's increased warming, although the lack of a dependable set of observational data was apparent as late as the mid 1950s. However, beginning in the late 1950s, being associated with the International Geophysical Year, the opportunity arose to begin accurate continuous monitoring of the Earth's atmospheric concentration of CO2. Consequently, it is now well established that the atmospheric concentration of CO2, while varying seasonally within any particular year, has steadily increased over time. Associated with this rising trend in the atmospheric concentration of CO2 is a rising trend in the surface-air and sea-surface temperatures (SSTs). This Technical Publication (TP) examines the statistical relationships between 10-year moving averages (10-yma) of the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index (GLOTI), sunspot number (SSN), the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) index, and the Mauna Loa CO2 (MLCO2) index for the common interval 1964-2006, where the 10-yma values are used to indicate trends in the data. Scatter plots using the 10-yma values between GLOTI and each of the other parameters are determined, both as single-variate and multivariate fits. Scatter plots are also determined for MLCO2 using single-variate and bivariate (BV) fits, based on the GLOTI alone and the GLOTI in combination with the AMO index. On the basis of the inferred preferential fits for MLCO2, estimates for MLCO2 are determined for the interval 1885-1964, thereby yielding an estimate of the preindustrial level of atmospheric concentration of CO2. Lastly, 10-yma values of MLCO2 are compared against 10-yma estimates of the total carbon emissions (TCE) to determine the likelihood that manmade sources of carbon emissions are indeed responsible for the recent warming now being experienced. (Parametric values used in this TP are those available prior to the end of 2012.)
In an earlier paper (Atwell, et al., 2015), we investigated solar particle event (SPE) radiation exposures (absorbed dose) to small, thinly-shielded spacecraft during a period when the sunspot number (SSN) was less than 30. These SPEs contain Ground Level Events (GLE), sub-GLEs, and sub-sub-GLEs (Tylka and Dietrich, 2009, Tylka and Dietrich, 2008, and Atwell, et al., 2008). GLEs are extremely energetic solar particle events having proton energies extending into the several GeV range and producing secondary particles in the atmosphere, mostly neutrons, observed with ground station neutron monitors. Sub-GLE events are less energetic, extending into the several hundred MeV range, but do not produce secondary atmospheric particles. Sub-sub GLEs are even less energetic with an observable increase in protons at energies greater than 30 MeV, but no observable proton flux above 300 MeV. In this paper, we consider those SPEs that occurred during 1973-2010 when the SSN was greater than 30 but less than 50. In addition, we provide probability estimates of absorbed dose based on mission duration with a 95% confidence level (CL). We also discuss the implications of these data and provide some recommendations that may be useful to spacecraft designers of these smaller spacecraft.
In an earlier paper presented at ICES in 2015, we investigated solar particle event (SPE) radiation exposures (absorbed dose) to small, thinly-shielded spacecraft during a period when the monthly smoothed sunspot number (SSN) was less than 30. Although such months are generally considered "solar-quiet", SPEs observed during these months even include Ground Level Events, the most energetic type of SPE. In this paper, we add to previous study those SPEs that occurred in 1973-2015 when the SSN was greater than 30 but less than 50. Based on the observable energy range of the solar protons, we classify the event as GLEs, sub-GLEs, and sub-sub-GLEs, all of which are potential contributors to the radiation hazard. We use the spectra of these events to construct a probabilistic model of the absorbed dose due to solar protons when SSN < 50 at various confidence levels for various depths of shielding and for various mission durations. We provide plots and tables of solar proton-induced absorbed dose as functions of confidence level, shielding thickness, and mission-duration that will be useful to system designers.
H-alpha and white light cinematograms of September 1963 flare/sunspot group and radio, ionospheric and magnetic field data