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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 325 records · Page 18
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Body size and early marine conditions drive changes in Chinook salmon productivity across northern latitude ecosystems

Disentangling the influences of climate change from other stressors affecting the population dynamics of aquatic species is particularly pressing for northern latitude ecosystems, where climate‐driven warming is occurring faster than the global average. Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) in the Yukon‐Kuskokwim (YK) region occupy the northern extent of their species' range and are experiencing prolonged declines in abundance resulting in fisheries closures and impacts to the well‐being of Indigenous people and local communities. These declines have been associated with physical (e.g., temperature, streamflow) and biological (e.g., body size, competition) conditions, but uncertainty remains about the relative influence of these drivers on productivity across populations and how salmon–environment relationships vary across watersheds. To fill these knowledge gaps, we estimated the effects of marine and freshwater environmental indicators, body size, and indices of competition, on the productivity (adult returns‐per‐spawner) of 26 Chinook salmon populations in the YK region using a Bayesian hierarchical stock‐recruitment model. Across most populations, productivity declined with smaller spawner body size and sea surface temperatures that were colder in the winter and warmer in the summer during the first year at sea. Decreased productivity was also associated with above average fall maximum daily streamflow, increased sea ice cover prior to juvenile outmigration, and abundance of marine competitors, but the strength of these effects varied among populations. Maximum daily stream temperature during spawning migration had a nonlinear relationship with productivity, with reduced productivity in years when temperatures exceeded thresholds in main stem rivers. These results demonstrate for the first time that well‐documented declines in body size of YK Chinook salmon were associated with declining population productivity, while taking climate into account.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Jacobian-free pseudo-arclength continuation method for phase transitions in inhomogeneous thermodynamic systems

Developing phase diagrams for inhomogeneous systems in thermodynamics is difficult, in part, due to the large phase space and the possibility of unstable and metastable solutions arising from first-order phase transitions. Pseudo-arclength continuation (PAC) is a method that allows one to trace out stable and unstable solutions of nonlinear systems. Typically, PAC utilizes the Jacobian in order to implement Newton (or quasi-Newton) steps. In this work, we present a Jacobian-free PAC method that is amenable to the usual workflows in inhomogeneous thermodynamics. We demonstrate our method in systems that have first-order phase transitions, including a novel example of polyelectrolyte complex coacervation in confinement, where multiple surface phase transitions occur and can overlap with one another.

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2025

Impurity radiation seeding of neoclassical tearing mode growth

Abstract The physics of neoclassical tearing modes (NTMs) is of great concern to tokamak plasma stability and performance, especially in the burning plasma regime. Whereas in many situations the seed events can be clearly identified, such as sawteeth and edge localized modes, the potential seeding mechanism of NTMs due to the resistive tearing instability driven by the impurity radiation cooling still needs more study. Recent NIMROD simulations have demonstrated that local impurity radiation cooling can drive the seed island growth and trigger the subsequent onset of NTM instability. The seed island is mainly driven by the local helical perturbation of the diamagnetic current induced by the perturbed pressure gradient as a result of the impurity radiative cooling on the rational surface. A heuristic closure for the neoclassical viscosity is adopted, and the seed island is further driven by the perturbed bootstrap current induced from the neoclassical electron viscous stress in the extended Ohm’s law. The growth rate of the NTM in simulations is found proportional to the electron neoclassical viscosity, and a theoretical neoclassical driving term is adopted to account for the nonlinear neoclassical island growth in the simulations.

Zeng, Shiyong (ORCID:000000017098818X)↗
DOE OSTI2022

Experiments and modelling of adhesive failure initiation of an epoxy underfill: a study of electronic packaging survivability

Epoxy underfills can be implemented in electronic packaging to enhance solder joint reliability of surface mounted components. However, it is important for an engineer to have a failure criterion that can be used for failure predictions and redesign of electronic assemblies. For this study, data from epoxy bond failure in mock electronic part assemblies were correlated to finite element analyses to predict adhesive failure initiation. Experiments were performed to determine failure loads for various loading locations and nonlinear viscoelastic analyses were performed for the same loading locations to determine a maximum principal strain failure parameter. Predictions showed that a maximum principal strain failure parameter defined from one test could be used as an indicator of adhesive failure of an epoxy bond undergoing other modes of loading. Failure initiation predictions matched experimental data using a maximum principal strain failure parameter for an epoxy bond undergoing mixed modes of loading for both unfilled and alumina oxide filled 828DEA epoxy. Such experimental setup is deemed appropriate for future epoxy testing.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Hybridizing Machine Learning and Physically-based Earth System Models to Improve Prediction of Multivariate Extreme Events (AI Exploration of Wildland Fire Prediction)

Focal Areas: This project responds to two focal areas identified in the DOE Call for AI4ESP White Papers: 1) Predictive modeling through the use of artificial intelligence (AI) techniques, and 2) insights gleaned from complex data using explainable AI and big data analytics. Science Challenge: Large wildland fires (hereafter wildfires) appearing as high-impact compound climate extreme events are closely related to hydroclimate and water cycle extremes that modulate surface fuel supply and combustibility. These compound events have multivariate climatic features (e.g., temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, wind, lightning) and societal drivers (e.g., forest management, land use change, human caused ignitions). Meanwhile, they induce strong feedbacks to the coupled atmosphere, biosphere, and hydrosphere by perturbing regional and global radiation budget as well as ecological, biogeochemical, and water cycles across multiple spatiotemporal scales. The nonlinear interactions between these natural and anthropogenic components of the Earth system are too complex to be completely and adequately represented in today’s Earth system models (ESMs). The inherent stochastic nature of fire activity at all scales further increases the difficulty of its prediction using ESMs that are usually developed from deterministic equations and parameterizations. Besides, concurrence of long-term (decadal to interdecadal) global climate change and fire regime shifts overlapping with short-term (intraseasonal to interannual) variations of regional fire weather and burning activity confound predictability of these compound extreme events. We propose to address the above scientific challenges by using machine learning (ML)-based data-driven modeling techniques to integrate observations and physically-based ESMs’ simulations in a computationally efficient hybrid prediction system. This prediction system is supposed to characterize the wildfire’s sensitivity to climate and exogenous drivers at high resolution (~ 0.25°) on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales providing improved predictability and explainability. We will use the system to help identify: (1) What are the computational elements of a hybrid system needed to predict compound climate extreme events such as global wildfires? (2) What are the key drivers (either natural or anthropogenic) that modulate short-term variations of multivariate fire weather and burning activity over different regions? How can one take advantage of those driver-response relationships to improve the predictability of large wildfires on S2S time scales? (3) What are the underlying physical mechanisms and sources of improved predictability? Which ML techniques are optimal in revealing and adapting these mechanisms?

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Machine Learning for Multipactor Susceptibility Prediction in Planar RF Gaps

Multipactor discharge is a nonlinear electron avalanche that limits the performance of high-power radio-frequency (RF) and vacuum electronic devices. Predicting multipactor susceptibility traditionally relies on Monte Carlo or particle-in-cell (PIC) simulations, which become computationally expensive for large parametric studies. In this work, we present a supervised machine-learning (ML) framework for prediction of multipactor susceptibility in a two-surface planar geometry. The models are trained using high-fidelity PIC simulation generated susceptibility data and learn the relationship between operational parameters, geometry, and material-dependent secondary electron emission properties. The proposed approach enables rapid reconstruction of susceptibility charts while preserving the physical structure of multipactor growth regions.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Effective Landau-type model of a Hf x Zr 1 - x O 2 -graphene nanostructure

Here, to describe the charge-polarization coupling in the nanostructure formed by a thin Hf x Zr 1-x O 2 film with a single-layer graphene as a top electrode, we develop the “effective” Landau-Ginzburg-Devonshire model. This approach is based on the parametrization of the Landau expansion coefficients for the polar (FE) and antipolar (AFE) orderings in thin Hf 1-x Zr x O 2 films from a limited number of polarization-field curves and hysteresis loops. The Landau expansion coefficients are nonlinearly dependent on the film thickness h and Zr/[Hf+Zr] ratio x, in contrast to h-independent and linearly x-dependent expansion coefficients of a classical Landau energy. We explain the dependence of the Landau expansion coefficients by the strong nonmonotonic dependence of the Hf 1-x Zr x O 2 film polar properties on the film thickness, grain size and surface energy. The proposed Landau free energy with five “effective” expansion coefficients, which are interpolation functions of x and h, describes the continuous transformation of polarization dependences on applied electric field and hysteresis loop shapes induced by the changes of x and h in the range 0 < x < 1 and 5 nm < h < 35 nm. Using the effective free energy, we demonstrated that the polarization of Hf 1-x Zr x O 2 film influences strongly on the graphene conductivity, and the full correlation between the distribution of polarization and charge carriers in graphene is revealed. In accordance with our modeling, the polarization of the (5 – 25) nm thick Hf 1-x Zr x O 2 films, which are in the ferroelectric-like or antiferroelectric-like states for the chemical compositions 0.35 ≤ x ≤ 0.95, determine the concentration of carriers in graphene and can control its field dependence. The result can be promising for creation of next generation Si-compatible nonvolatile memories and graphene-ferroelectric FETs, because the working voltages applied to the Hf 1-x Zr x O 2 film (which acts as a gate) can be relatively low (less than 2 V). These low voltages are sufficient to induce the pronounced hysteresis of ferroelectric polarization in the Hf 1-x Zr x O 2 gate, which, due to the strong electric coupling, induces the hysteresis of the graphene charge.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Magnetar Bursts Due to Alfvén Wave Nonlinear Breakout

The most common form of magnetar activity is short X-ray bursts, with durations from milliseconds to seconds, and luminosities ranging from 10 36 –10 43 erg s -1 . Recently, an X-ray burst from the galactic magnetar SGR 1935+2154 was detected to be coincident with two fast radio burst (FRB) like events from the same source, providing evidence that FRBs may be linked to magnetar bursts. Using fully 3D force-free electrodynamics simulations, we show that such magnetar bursts may be produced by Alfvén waves launched from localized magnetar quakes: a wave packet propagates to the outer magnetosphere, becomes nonlinear, and escapes the magnetosphere, forming an ultra-relativistic ejecta. The ejecta pushes open the magnetospheric field lines, creating current sheets behind it. Magnetic reconnection can happen at these current sheets, leading to plasma energization and X-ray emission. The angular size of the ejecta can be compact, ≲1 sr if the quake launching region is small, ≲0.01 sr at the stellar surface. We discuss implications for the FRBs and the coincident X-ray burst from SGR 1935+2154.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Identification of Kelvin-Helmholtz generated vortices in magnetised fluids

The Kelvin-Helmholtz Instability (KHI), arising from velocity shear across the magnetopause, plays a significant role in the viscous-like transfer of mass, momentum, and energy from the shocked solar wind into the magnetosphere. While the KHI leads to growth of surface waves and vortices, suitable detection methods for these applicable to magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) are currently lacking. A novel method is derived based on the well-established λ-family of hydrodynamic vortex identification techniques, which define a vortex as a local minimum in an adapted pressure field. The J × B Lorentz force is incorporated into this method by using an effective total pressure in MHD, including both magnetic pressure and a pressure-like part of the magnetic tension derived from a Helmholtz decomposition. The λ MHD method is shown to comprise of four physical effects: vortical momentum, density gradients, fluid compressibility, and the rotational part of the magnetic tension. A local three-dimensional MHD simulation representative of near-flank magnetopause conditions (plasma β’s 0.5 – 5 and convective Mach numbers M f ∼ 0.4) under northward interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) is used to validate λ MHD . Analysis shows it correlates well with hydrodynamic vortex definitions, though the level of correlation decreases with vortex evolution. Overall, vortical momentum dominates λ MHD at all times. During the linear growth phase, density gradients act to oppose vortex formation. By the highly nonlinear stage, the formation of small-scale structures leads to a rising importance of the magnetic tension. Compressibility was found to be insignificant throughout. Finally, a demonstration of this method adapted to tetrahedral spacecraft observations is performed.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Nematic Colloidal Micro‐Robots as Physically Intelligent Systems

Abstract Physically intelligent micro‐robotic systems exploit information embedded in micro‐robots, their colloidal cargo, and their milieu to interact, assemble, and form functional structures. Nonlinear anisotropic fluids such as nematic liquid crystals (NLCs) provide untapped opportunities to embed interactions via their topological defects, complex elastic responses, and ability to dramatically restructure in dynamic settings. Here a four‐armed ferromagnetic micro‐robot is designed and fabricated to embed and dynamically reconfigure information in the nematic director field, generating a suite of physical interactions for cargo manipulation. The micro‐robot shape and surface chemistry are designed to generate a nemato‐elastic energy landscape in the domain that defines multiple modes of emergent, bottom‐up interactions with passive colloids. Micro‐robot rotation expands the ability to sculpt interactions; the energy landscape around a rotating micro‐robot is dynamically reconfigured by complex far‐from‐equilibrium dynamics of the micro‐robot's companion topological defect. These defect dynamics allow transient information to be programmed into the domain and exploited. Robust micro‐robotic manipulation strategies are demonstrated that exploit these diverse modes of nemato‐elastic interaction to achieve cargo docking, transport, release, and assembly of complex reconfigurable structures at multi‐stable sites. Such structures are of great interest to future developments of LC‐based advanced optical device and micro‐manufacturing in anisotropic environments.

Yao, Tianyi↗
DOE OSTI2025

Generative learning for slow manifolds and bifurcation diagrams

In dynamical systems characterized by separation of time scales, the approximation of so called “slow manifolds”, on which the long term dynamics lie, is a useful step for model reduction. Initializing on such slow manifolds is a useful step in modeling, since it circumvents fast transients, and is crucial in multiscale algorithms (like the equation-free approach) alternating between fine scale (fast) and coarser scale (slow) simulations. In a similar spirit, when one studies the infinite time dynamics of systems depending on parameters, the system attractors (e.g., its steady states) lie on bifurcation diagrams (curves for one-parameter continuation, and more generally, on manifolds in state parameter space. Sampling these manifolds gives us representative attractors (here, steady states of ODEs or PDEs) at different parameter values. Algorithms for the systematic construction of these manifolds (slow manifolds, bifurcation diagrams) are required parts of the “traditional” numerical nonlinear dynamics toolkit. In more recent years, as the field of Machine Learning develops, conditional score-based generative models (cSGMs) have been demonstrated to exhibit remarkable capabilities in generating plausible data from target distributions that are conditioned on some given label. It is tempting to exploit such generative models to produce samples of data distributions (points on a slow manifold, steady states on a bifurcation surface) conditioned on (consistent with) some quantity of interest (QoI, observable). In this work, we present a framework for using cSGMs to quickly (a) initialize on a low-dimensional (reduced-order) slow manifold of a multi-time-scale system consistent with desired value(s) of a QoI (a “label”) on the manifold, and (b) approximate steady states in a bifurcation diagram consistent with a (new, out-of-sample) parameter value. This conditional sampling can help uncover the geometry of the reduced slow-manifold and/or approximately “fill in” missing segments of steady states in a bifurcation diagram. Finally, the quantity of interest, which determines how the sampling is conditioned, is either known a priori or identified using manifold learning-based dimensionality reduction techniques applied to the training data.

Dynamical systems↗
DOE OSTI2020

Analytical model of low and high ablation regimes in carbon arcs

Graphite ablation by an electric arc or a laser/solar flux is widely used for the synthesis of carbon nanomaterials. Previously, it was observed in multiple arc experiments that the ablation rate is a strong nonlinear function of the arc current and it drastically increases at some threshold current. As such, we developed an analytical model explaining this transition in the rate of ablation by an electric arc or a laser/solar flux. The model not only explains the observations but can also accurately predict the experimentally observed ablation rates. The model takes into account redeposition of carbon back to the ablated surface, which is the key process responsible for the observed effects.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Consequences of adsorbate-adsorbate interactions for apparent kinetics of surface catalytic reactions

Lateral adsorbate interactions at catalyst surfaces are known to influence adsorption energies and reaction rates. Lattice-based kinetic Monte Carlo (kMC) simulations are able to capture these influences, but such models are typically parameterized for a specific reaction network and catalyst surface. Here we report kMC simulations to probe the influence of lateral interactions on simulated rates, rate orders, apparent activation energies, and Sabatier plots. We construct a simple, two-step reaction network involving a single adsorbate and rate- limiting diatomic dissociation, employ a generic repulsive lateral interaction model consistent with known adsorbate-adsorbate interactions on metal surfaces, and a rate model consistent with known Brønsted-Evans-Polyani relationships for diatomic dissocations. Furthermore, we juxtapose reaction kinetics over a wide range of reaction conditions and catalyst binding energies, as a function of interaction strength. We find that at a given zero-coverage binding energy and external conditions, adsorbate coverage decreases monotonically with increasing interaction strength, but absolute rates can vary linearly or nonlinearly. Interactions flatten the Sabatier volcano and shift the maximum towards stronger binding. Influences on apparent rate orders and activation energies are modest and are sensitive to interaction-induced adsorbate ordering. Model predictions are sensitive to lattice size effects at high coverages. The results, modelled for a simple reaction system, highlight the generic consequences of lateral interactions and guidance for identifying their signatures in observed kinetics.

kinetic Monte Carlo↗
DOE OSTI2020

Persistent Heavy Winter Nitrate Pollution Driven by Increased Photochemical Oxidants in Northern China

Nitrate is an increasingly important component of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) during winter in northern China. Past emission control has been ineffective in reducing winter nitrate. Here, we use extensive observations and a model with state-of-theart nitrogen chemistry to identify the key factors that control the nitrate formation in the heavily polluted North China Plain (NCP). In contrast to the previous view of weak winter photochemistry, we show that the O3 and OH productions are sufficiently high in winter to facilitate fast gas-phase and heterogeneous conversion of NOX to nitrate over the NCP. Increasing O3 and OH productions from higher precursor levels and fast ROX cycling accelerate the nitrate generation during heavy pollution. We find that the 31.8% reduction of NOX emissions from 2010 to 2017 in the NCP lowers surface nitrate by only 0.2% and even increases nitrate in some polluted areas. This is mainly due to the increase of O3 and OH (by~30%), which has subsequently increased the conversion efficiency of NOX to HNO3 (by 38.7%). Future control strategies for the winter haze should also aim to lower photochemical oxidants, via larger and synchronized NOX and VOCs emissions reduction, to overcome the effects of nonlinear photochemistry and aerosol chemical feedback.

Fu, Xiao↗
DOE OSTI2021

Table-top extreme ultraviolet second harmonic generation

The lack of available table-top extreme ultraviolet (XUV) sources with high enough fluxes and coherence properties has limited the availability of nonlinear XUV and x-ray spectroscopies to free-electron lasers (FELs). Here, we demonstrate second harmonic generation (SHG) on a table-top XUV source by observing SHG near the Ti M 2,3 edge with a high-harmonic seeded soft x-ray laser. Furthermore, this experiment represents the first SHG experiment in the XUV. First-principles electronic structure calculations suggest the surface specificity and separate the observed signal into its resonant and nonresonant contributions. The realization of XUV-SHG on a table-top source opens up more accessible opportunities for the study of element-specific dynamics in multicomponent systems where surface, interfacial, and bulk-phase asymmetries play a driving role.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modeling Spatial Asymmetries in Teleconnected Extreme Temperatures

Abstract Combining strengths from deep learning and extreme value theory can help describe complex relationships between variables where extreme events have significant impacts (e.g., environmental or financial applications). Neural networks learn complicated nonlinear relationships from large datasets under limited parametric assumptions. By definition, the number of occurrences of extreme events is small, which limits the ability of the data-hungry, nonparametric neural network to describe rare events. Inspired by recent extreme cold winter weather events in North America caused by atmospheric blocking, we examine several probabilistic generative models for the entire multivariate probability distribution of daily boreal winter surface air temperature. We propose metrics to measure spatial asymmetries, such as long-range anticorrelated patterns that commonly appear in temperature fields during blocking events. Compared to vine copulas, the statistical standard for multivariate copula modeling, deep learning methods show improved ability to reproduce complicated asymmetries in the spatial distribution of ERA5 temperature reanalysis, including the spatial extent of in-sample extreme events.

Krock, Mitchell L.↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Bayesian approach to evaluation of soil biogeochemical models

Abstract. To make predictions about the carbon cycling consequences of rising global surface temperatures, Earth system scientists rely on mathematical soil biogeochemical models (SBMs). However, it is not clear which models have better predictive accuracy, and a rigorous quantitative approach for comparing and validating the predictions has yet to be established. In this study, we present a Bayesian approach to SBM comparison that can be incorporated into a statistical model selection framework. We compared the fits of linear and nonlinear SBMs to soil respiration data compiled in a recent meta-analysis of soil warming field experiments. Fit quality was quantified using Bayesian goodness-of-fit metrics, including the widely applicable information criterion (WAIC) and leave-one-out cross validation (LOO). We found that the linear model generally outperformed the nonlinear model at fitting the meta-analysis data set. Both WAIC and LOO computed higher overfitting risk and effective numbers of parameters for the nonlinear model compared to the linear model, conditional on the data set. Goodness of fit for both models generally improved when they were initialized with lower and more realistic steady-state soil organic carbon densities. Still, testing whether linear models offer definitively superior predictive performance over nonlinear models on a global scale will require comparisons with additional site-specific data sets of suitable size and dimensionality. Such comparisons can build upon the approach defined in this study to make more rigorous statistical determinations about model accuracy while leveraging emerging data sets, such as those from long-term ecological research experiments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Ultra‐Low‐Loss Silicon Nitride Photonics Based on Deposited Films Compatible with Foundries

Abstract The fabrication processes of silicon nitride (Si 3 N 4 ) photonic devices used in foundries require low temperature deposition, which typically leads to high propagation losses. Here, it is shown that propagation loss as low as 0.42 dB cm −1 can be achieved using foundry compatible processes by solely reducing waveguide surface roughness. By postprocessing the fabricated devices using rapid thermal anneal (RTA) and furnace anneal, propagation losses down to 0.28 dB cm −1 and 0.06 dB cm −1 , respectively, are achieved. These low losses are comparable to the conventional devices using high temperature, high‐stress LPCVD films. The dispersion of the devices is also tuned, and it is proved that these devices can be used for linear and nonlinear applications. Low threshold parametric oscillation, broadband frequency combs, and narrow‐linewidth laser are demonstrated. This work demonstrates the feasibility of scalable photonic systems based on foundries.

Ji, Xingchen↗