Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “temporal variability”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 325 records · Page 18
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Standoff Infrared Measurements of Chemical Plume Dynamics in Complex Terrain Using a Combination of Active Swept-ECQCL Laser Spectroscopy with Passive Hyperspectral Imaging

Chemical plume detection and modeling in complex terrain present numerous challenges. We present experimental results from outdoor releases of two chemical tracers (sulfur hexafluoride and Freon-152a) from different locations in mountainous terrain. Chemical plumes were detected using two standoff instruments collocated at a distance of 1.5 km from the plume releases. A passive long-wave infrared hyperspectral imaging system was used to show time- and space-resolved plume transport in regions near the source. An active infrared swept-wavelength external cavity quantum cascade laser system was used in a standoff configuration to measure quantitative chemical column densities with high time resolution and high sensitivity along a single measurement path. Both instruments provided chemical-specific detection of the plumes and provided complementary information over different temporal and spatial scales. The results show highly variable plume propagation dynamics near the release points, strongly dependent on the local topography and winds. Effects of plume stagnation, plume splitting, and plume mixing were all observed and are explained based on local topographic and wind conditions. Measured plume column densities at distances ~100 m from the release point show temporal fluctuations over ~1 s time scales and spatial variations over ~1 m length scales. The results highlight the need for high-speed and spatially resolved measurement techniques to provide validation data at the relevant spatial and temporal scales required for high-fidelity terrain-aware microscale plume propagation models.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Metatranscriptomics reveals a shift in microbial community composition and function during summer months in a coastal marine environment

Abstract Temperate coastal marine waters are often thermally stratified from spring through fall but can be dynamic and disrupted by tidal currents and wind‐driven upwelling. These mixing events introduce deeper, cooler water with a higher partial pressure of CO 2 (pCO2) and its associated microbial communities to the surface. Anecdotally, these events impact shellfish hatcheries and farms, warranting improved understanding of changes in composition and activity of marine microbial communities in relation to environmental processes. To characterize both compositional and functional changes associated with abiotic factors, here, we generate a reference metatranscriptome from the Strait of Georgia over representative seasons and analyze metatranscriptomic profiles of the microorganisms present within intake water containing different pCO 2 levels at a shellfish hatchery in British Columbia from June through October. Abiotic factors studied include pH, temperature, alkalinity, aragonite, calcite, and pCO 2 . Community composition changes were observed to occur at broad taxonomic levels and most notably to vary with temperature and pCO 2 . Functional gene expression profiles indicated a strong difference between early (June–July) and late summer (August–October) associated with viral activity. The taxonomic data suggest this could be due to the termination of cyanobacteria and phytoplankton blooms by viral lysis in the late season. Functional analysis indicated fewer differentially expressed transcripts associated with abiotic variables (e.g., pCO 2 ) than with the temporal effect. Microbial composition and activity in these waters vary with both short‐term effects observed alongside abiotic variation and long‐term effects observed across seasons. The analysis of both taxonomy and functional gene expression simultaneously in the same samples by environmental RNA (eRNA metatranscriptomics) provided a more comprehensive view for monitoring water bodies than either would in isolation.

Sutherland, Ben J. G.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Data-driven models of nonautonomous systems

Nonautonomous dynamical systems are characterized by time-dependent inputs, which complicates the discovery of predictive models describing the spatiotemporal evolution of the state variables of quantities of interest from their temporal snapshots. When dynamic mode decomposition (DMD) is used to infer a linear model, this difficulty manifests itself in the need to approximate the time-dependent Koopman operators. Our approach is to approximate the original nonautonomous system with a modified system derived via a local parameterization of the time-dependent inputs. The modified system comprises a sequence of local parametric systems, which are subsequently approximated by a parametric surrogate model using the DRIPS (dimension reduction and interpolation in parameter space) framework. The offline step of DRIPS relies on DMD to build a linear surrogate model, endowed with reduced-order bases for the observables mapped from training data. The online step interpolates on suitable manifolds to construct a sequence of iterative parametric surrogate models; the target/test parameter points on these manifolds are specified by a local parameterization of the test time-dependent inputs. Here, we use numerical experimentation to demonstrate the robustness of our method and compare its performance with that of deep neural networks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Data initiatives for ocean-driven melt of Antarctic ice shelves

Ocean-driven melt of Antarctic ice shelves is an important control on mass loss from the ice sheet, but is complex to study due to significant variability in melt rates both spatially and temporally. Here we assess the strengths and weakness of satellite and field-based observations as tools for testing models of ice-shelf melt. We discuss how the complementary use of field, satellite and model data can be a powerful but underutilised tool for studying melt processes. Finally, we identify some community initiatives working to collate and publish coordinated melt rate datasets, which can be used in future for validating satellite-derived maps of melt and evaluating processes in numerical simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Long-Term Stochasticity Combines With Short-Term Variability in Assembly Processes to Underlie Rice Paddy Sustainability

Revealing temporal patterns of community assembly processes is important for understanding how microorganisms underlie the sustainability of agroecosystem. The ancient terraced rice paddies at Longji provide an ideal platform to study temporal dynamics of agroecosystem sustainability due to their chronosequential records of soil physicochemistry and well-archived microbial information along 630-year rice cultivation. We used statistical null models to evaluate microbial assembly processes along the soil chronosequences of Longji rice paddies through time. Stochastic and deterministic assembly processes jointly governed microbial community composition within successional eras (less than 250 years), and within-era determinism was mainly driven by soil fertility and redox conditions alone or in combination. Conversely, across successional eras (i.e., over 300 years), stochasticity linearly increased with increasing duration between eras and was eventually predominant for the whole 630 years. We suggest that the impact of stochasticity vs. determinism on assembly is timescale-dependent, and we propose that the importance of stochastic assembly of microbial community at longer timescales is due to the gradual changes in soil properties under long-term rice cultivation, which in turn contribute to the sustainability of paddy ecosystem by maintaining a diverse community of microorganisms with multi-functional traits. In total, our results indicate that knowledge on the timescales at which assembly processes govern microbial community composition is key to understanding the ecological mechanisms generating agroecosystem sustainability.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Modeling Wind-Hydrogen System and Analyzing Curtailment

Low-cost green hydrogen can be achieved by integrating utility-scale wind farms to an electrolyzer. The power produced by a wind farm depends on spatial and temporal changes in the wind, and this variability can affect the electrolyzer's performance. This study examines the trade-offs between two electrolyzer configurations: a large centralized electrolyzer connected to the wind farm versus several smaller distributed electrolyzers connected directly to each wind turbine. The results show that a centralized configuration generates more hydrogen because turbines that are waked and produce less power are compensated but other un-waked turbines.

electrolyzer↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Nonstationary and Non-Gaussian Moving Average Model for Solar Irradiance

Historically, power has flowed from large power plants to customers. Increasing penetration of distributed energy resources such as solar power from rooftop photovoltaic has made the distribution network a two-way-street with power being generated at the customer level. The incorporation of renewables introduces additional uncertainty and variability into the power grid. Distribution network operation studies are being adapted to include renewables; however, such studies require high quality solar irradiance data that adequately reflect realistic meteorological variability. Data from satellite-based products are spatially complete, but temporally coarse, whereas solar irradiances exhibit high frequency variation at very fine timescales. We propose a new stochastic method for temporally downscaling global horizontal irradiance (GHI) to 1 min resolution, but we do not consider the spatial aspect due to limited availability of the in situ irradiance measurements. Solar irradiance's first and second-order structures vary diurnally and seasonally, and our model adapts to such nonstationarity. Empirical irradiance data exhibits highly non-Gaussian behavior; we develop a nonstationary and non-Gaussian moving average model that is shown to capture realistic solar variability at multiple timescales. We also propose a new estimation scheme based on Cholesky factors of empirical autocovariance matrices, bypassing difficult and inaccessible likelihood-based approaches. The model is demonstrated for a case study of three locations that are located in diverse climates through the United States. The model is compared against competitors from the literature and is shown to provide better uncertainty and variability quantification on testing data.

Cholesky factor↗
DOE OSTI2022

The root-zone soil moisture spectrum in a mediterranean ecosystem

Storage of water within soil pores of the root zone introduce memory effects in the dynamics of soil moisture that are considerably longer than the integral timescale of many atmospheric processes. Thus, hydro-climatic states can be “sustained” through land-surface heat and water vapor fluxes primarily because they can “feed off” on this long-term soil moisture memory. Root-zone soil moisture memory is only but one feature characterizing the spectrum of soil moisture dynamics, which is analyzed here using a combination of long-term measurements and models. In particular, the spectrum of root-zone soil moisture content in a Mediterranean ecosystem is examined using 14-years of half-hourly measurements. A distinguishing hydro-climatic feature in such ecosystems is that sources (mainly rainfall) and sinks (mainly evapotranspiration) of soil moisture are roughly out of phase with each other. For over 4 decades of time scales and 7 decades of energy, the canonical shape of the measured soil moisture spectrum is shown to be approximately Lorentzian determined by the soil moisture variance and its memory but with two exceptions: the occurrences of a peak at diurnal-to-daily time scales and a weaker peak at near annual time scales. Model calculations and spectral analysis demonstrate that diurnal and seasonal variations in hydroclimate forcing responsible for variability in evapotranspiration had minor impact on the normalized shape of the soil moisture spectrum. However, their impact was captured by adjustments in the temporal variance. These findings indicate that precipitation and not evapotranspiration variability dominates the multi-scaling properties of soil moisture variability consistent with prior climate model simulations. Furthermore, the soil moisture memory inferred by the annual peak of soil moisture (340 d) is consistent with climate model simulations, while the memory evaluated from the loss function of a linearized mass balance approach leads to a smaller value (50 d), highlighting the effect of weak non-stationarity on soil moisture variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Exploring Multidimensional Spatial-Temporal Hydropower Operational Flexibilities by Modeling and Optimizing Water-Constrained Cascading Hydroelectric Systems

Because of unique characteristics such as clean and cost-competitive electricity as well as fast-ramping and storage abilities, the power industry continues to evolve its operation strategies for cascading hydroelectric (CHE) systems for providing enhanced values to the grid, especially under the deeper renewable resource integration. However, existing operation practices of CHEs predate the integration of renewables, which could prohibit the effective utilization of their inherent flexibilities in delivering maximum financial benefits and providing valuable grid services to the power system and electricity market operations. Indeed, modeling and optimizing these resource-limited while flexible CHE assets with uncertainties and imperfect information across multiple spatial-temporal dimensions present significant challenges. To facilitate CHE facility operators in effectively coordinating water usage and hydropower plant operations across multiple timescales, this project aims to fill the existing gaps by developing a suite of accurate water inflow (WI) forecast models as well as enhanced CHE modeling and optimization approaches with proper consideration of their unique characteristics, which would help explore their multidimensional spatial-temporal operational flexibility potentials. The developed approaches could better align reservoir operation strategies with variability and uncertainty of future water availability. They can also promote more effective utilization of multidimensional spatial-temporal hydropower operational flexibility potentials by designing long-term evacuation plans of reservoirs and short-term operation of CHEs, along with their coordination with other types of renewables. The project leverages various resources to facilitate the research and development activities, including actual characteristics data of CHE systems and a library of current and future cases of Portland General Electric (PGE). These realistic data enable the project team to study how to maximize the value of CHEs under current and future portfolios and evaluate opportunities to improve operation practices.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Model Evaluation by Measurements from Collocated Remote Sensors in Complex Terrain

Model improvement efforts involve an evaluation of changes in model skill in response to changes in model physics and parameterization. When using wind measurements from various remote sensors to determine model forecast accuracy, it is important to understand the effects of measurement-uncertainty differences among the sensors resulting from differences in the methods of measurement, the vertical and temporal resolution of the measurements, and the spatial variability of these differences. Here we quantify instrument measurement variability in 80-m wind speed during WFIP2 and its impact on the calculated errors and the change in error from one model version to another. Here the model versions tested involved updates in model physics from HRRRv1 to HRRRv4, and reductions in grid interval from 3 km to 750 m. Model errors were found to be 2–3 m s –1 . Differences in errors as determined by various instruments at each site amounted to about 10% of this value, or 0.2–0.3 m s –1 . Changes in model skill due to physics or grid-resolution updates also differed depending on the instrument used to determine the errors; most of the instrument-to-instrument differences were ~0.1 m s –1 , but some reached 0.3 m s –1 . All instruments at a given site mostly showed consistency in the sign of the change in error. In two examples, though, the sign changed, illustrating a consequence of differences in measurements: errors determined using one instrument may show improvement in model skill, whereas errors determined using another instrument may indicate degradation. This possibility underscores the importance of having accurate measurements to determine the model error.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Ocean physical‐biogeochemical interactions in the CMIP6 and E3SM Earth System Models

The primary objectives of this project are to quantify the spatio‐temporal linkages between physical climate and ocean biogeochemical variables in the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), in CMIP6 Earth System Models (ESMs), and in historical observations, to evaluate the E3SM’s ability to reproduce the observations, and to develop a solid diagnostic package to do so. It will revolve around four hypotheses and will focus on key physical and biogeochemical processes that regulate the upper ocean carbon and oxygen cycling: water mass distribution, ventilation, and biological production.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Estimating CO 2 fluxes through integrating spatial and temporal input layers via deep learning algorithms

Background Accurate estimation of net ecosystem exchange of CO 2 fluxes (Fc) is essential for understanding carbon cycle processes and assessing ecosystem carbon budgets. However, conventional modeling approaches often emphasize temporal dynamics while overlooking the pronounced spatial heterogeneity within the footprint of eddy covariance (EC) towers, potentially limiting predictive accuracy and interpretability of Fc estimates. To address this challenge, we developed a spatiotemporal model that integrates high-resolution footprint-weighted spatial information with sequential environmental drivers. Results The integrated model combines a deeper graph convolutional network to characterize fine-scale spatial variability within EC footprints and a gated recurrent unit network to capture temporal dependencies in biophysical conditions. Using multi-year flux tower observations, remote sensing vegetation indices and footprint modeling, we evaluate the proposed method across three land cover types. This spatiotemporal model consistently outperforms temporal-only and spatial-only baselines, achieving the highest overall accuracy (R 2 = 0.9569) and the lowest RMSE (1.8128 μmol m −2 s −1 ) and MAE (1.1939 μmol m −2 s −1 ). Performance gains are particularly evident in ecosystems with strong vegetation heterogeneity, where spatial structure substantially modulates Fc variability. Conclusions This study demonstrates the importance of joint modeling spatial heterogeneity and temporal dynamics for improving Fc estimation and provides a robust method for advancing footprint-based Fc estimates across diverse ecosystems, supporting refined assessments of terrestrial carbon fluxes, and enhancing scientific foundations for carbon studies.

CO2 flux estimate↗
DOE OSTI2022

Dust pollution in China affected by different spatial and temporal types of El Niño

Dust is an important aerosol affecting air quality in China in the winter and spring seasons. Dust in China is potentially influenced by the interannual climate variability associated with El Niño. Here, the impacts of El Niño with different temporal and spatial types on dust pollution in boreal winter and spring in China and the potential mechanisms are investigated using a state-of-the-art Earth system model (E3SMv1). We find that the eastern Pacific (EP) and central Pacific (CP) El Niño both increase wintertime dust concentrations by 5–50 µg m –3 over central-eastern China. Due to a stronger wind and lower relative humidity, which favor dust emissions near sources, and a strengthened northwesterly and reduced precipitation, which are conducive to dust transport, dust concentrations during the CP El Niño are 5–20 µg m –3 higher in northern China than during the EP El Niño, although the changes are mostly insignificant. El Niño with a short duration (SD) increases boreal winter dust concentrations by 20–100 µg m –3 over northern China relative to the climatological mean, while there is a decrease of 5–50 µg m –3 during the long-duration (LD) El Niño, which is also related to the El Niño-induced changes in atmospheric circulation, precipitation, and relative humidity. In the following spring season, all types of El Niño events enhance dust over northern China, but only the increase during the LD El Niño is statistically significant, suggesting that the weaker intensity but longer duration of the LD El Niño events can significantly affect spring dust in China. Our results contribute to the current knowledge of the influence of El Niño on dust pollution, which has profound implications for air pollution control and dust storm prediction.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Dynamically Downscaled (WRF) 1km, Hourly Meteorological Conditions 1987-2020. East/Taylor Watersheds

This dataset contains meteorological output from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) version 3.8.1. This dataset has been created to 1) investigate hydrometeorological processes impacting the East River and water-delivery to the Critical Zone, and 2) provide meteorological forcing data for distributed Earth-science modeling applications in the East River watershed. Variables have a 1 kilometer spatial resolution and hourly temporal resolution and encompass a rectangular region encompassing the East and Taylor River watersheds, Colorado, near the town of Crested Butte. WRF was forced using Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) lateral boundary conditions. Each .zip file contains one "water year" of data (October 1 -- September 30; i.e. water year 2017 starts October 1, 2016 and ends September 30, 2017). Each zip folder contains 12 netcdf (.nc) files containing one month of hourly data each and are approximately 250mb. Model timestamps are in UTC time.The files contain the following data variables:EAST_MASK: binary mask of the watershed regionTAYLOR_MASK: binary mask of the watershed regionGLW downwelling longwave radiation (w/m2)HR_PRCP: Hourly Precipitation Rate (mm/hr). Includes all hydrometeors (solid+liquid). HFX NoahMP LSM total grid-cell modelled sensible heat flux (w/m2) [positive towards atmosphere]LH NoahMP LSM total grid-cell modelled latent heat flux (w/m2) [positive towards atmosphere; can be converted to ET]PSFC Surface Barometric Pressure (hPa)Q2 Two-meter specific humidity (kg/kg)SWDOWN Downwelling shortwave solar radiation (w/m2)SWNORM Terrain-normal downwelling shortwave radiation (w/m2)T2 Two-meter air temperature (deg K)U10 10-m U-component of wind velocity (m/s)V10 10m V-component of wind velocity (m/s)XLAT Latitude of grid-center point XLONG Longitude of grid-center point XTIME Model timestamp, **in UTC**

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Short-term electricity load forecasting: Application-driven evaluation of machine learning models across spatial and temporal scales

As we transition towards a decarbonized economy, the integration of variable renewable energy resources and new demands (e.g., electric vehicles, heat pumps) into the electricity grid places unprecedented pressure on grid operators to effectively anticipate and manage peak load. In this context, machine learning algorithms are proving to be indispensable for accurate short-term load forecasting, a crucial task to address these challenges. This study benchmarks 6 machine learning algorithms, including three neural networks and three tree-based algorithms, across various levels of spatial aggregation and time horizons (1, 4, 8, 24, and 48 h). The central contribution of this work is the comparison and analysis of load forecasting models not only based on statistical metrics, but also based on a novel error metric, which evaluates the cost implications of forecast errors for power system stakeholders. Results show that tree-based models outperform neural networks, based on statistical metrics, and yield less skewed error distributions for most spatial scales. However, through the lens of the novel error metric, neural networks are the more competitive choice, especially for forecast horizons that exceed 8 h. The study concludes with actionable recommendations to grid operators and highlights the need for the development of error metrics that link forecasting accuracy to operational costs. To promote transparency and open science, the datasets and Python code are open-sourced via a supplementary repository.

Houben, Nikolaus↗
DOE OSTI2026

Forest aboveground biomass estimation through integration of sentinel-2 and PALSAR-2 time series: assessing models trained on GEDI and field inventory benchmarks

Accurate and spatially explicit forest Aboveground Biomass (AGB) mapping through remote sensing is critical for quantifying terrestrial carbon stocks and informing effective forest management strategies. However, AGB estimation in dense forests with complex terrain remains challenging due to satellite sensor signal saturation problem (saturation issue occurs in high biomass forests), structural complexity, and limited ground truth for calibration. This study presents a novel framework that integrates multi-temporal Sentinel-2 optical imagery, ALOS PALSAR-2 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data, and topographic variables with explainable Machine Learning to map AGB across mountainous forests within subtropical and temperate oceanic climate zones of Mexico. We evaluate the effects of temporal granularity and sensor synergy by comparing multiple temporal inputs and sensor configurations (Sentinel-2, PALSAR-2, and their fusion), and assess model performance using two reference datasets: NASA GEDI LiDAR-derived biomass and Mexico’s National Forest and Soil Inventory (INFyS). Our results showed that models trained on INFyS consistently outperformed those trained on GEDI, highlighting limitations in GEDI’s reliability in biomass estimates within this study region. Furthermore, the integration of Sentinel-2 and PALSAR-2 provided improved predictions compared to single-sensor models, particularly when combined with temporally explicit yearly statistics. The best-performing model, which was trained on INFyS data, and considered both Sentinel-2 and PALSAR-2 yearly statistics, as well as topographic variables, achieved an R2 of 0.64, RMSE of 51.10 Mg/ha, and relative RMSE (rRMSE) of 58.69%. Explainable ML analysis identified Sentinel-2 spectral indices and topographic features as key predictors, while PALSAR-2 metrics provided complementary information, partially mitigating saturation effects in high-biomass areas. Specifically, integrating both sensors substantially improved AGB estimation in high biomass forest (≥200 Mg/ha), yielding 98% gains over optical-only model, with resulting estimates exceeding GEDI L4B by 29% and ESA-CCI-BIOMASS by 174%. Terrain-stratified analysis indicated close agreement with GEDI in low-slope areas, with increasing divergence as slope steepness increased, while estimates remained consistently higher than ESA-CCI-BIOMASS across all slope classes. The proposed approach advances multi-sensor fusion and temporal feature engineering for AGB mapping using open-access satellite datasets, providing a scalable and reproducible framework for annual biomass monitoring in topographically complex mountainous forests. The resulting 25 m resolution biomass product has the potential to provide spatially detailed information for forest monitoring and may support applications in carbon accounting and forest management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Persistent global greening over the last four decades using novel long-term vegetation index data with enhanced temporal consistency

Advanced Very High-Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) satellite observations have provided the longest global daily records from 1980s, but the remaining temporal inconsistency in vegetation index datasets has hindered reliable assessment of vegetation greenness trends. To tackle this, we generated novel global long-term Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Near-Infrared Reflectance of vegetation (NIRv) datasets derived from AVHRR and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). We addressed residual temporal inconsistency through three-step post processing including cross-sensor calibration among AVHRR sensors, orbital drifting correction for AVHRR sensors, and machine learning-based harmonization between AVHRR and MODIS. After applying each processing step, we confirmed the enhanced temporal consistency in terms of detrended anomaly, trend and interannual variability of NDVI and NIRv at calibration sites. Our refined NDVI and NIRv datasets showed a persistent global greening trend over the last four decades (NDVI: 0.0008 yr -1 ; NIRv: 0.0003 yr -1 ), contrasting with those without the three processing steps that showed rapid greening trends before 2000 (NDVI: 0.0017 yr -1 ; NIRv: 0.0008 yr -1 ) and weakened greening trends after 2000 (NDVI: 0.0004 yr -1 ; NIRv: 0.0001 yr -1 ). These findings highlight the importance of minimizing temporal inconsistency in long-term vegetation index datasets, which can support more reliable trend analysis in global vegetation response to climate changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Climate science to inform adaptation policy: Heat waves over India in the 1.5°C and 2°C warmer worlds

Developing a better scientific understanding of anthropogenic climate change and climate variability, especially the prediction/projection of climate futures with useful temporal and geographical resolution and quantified uncertainties, and using that knowledge to inform adaptation planning and action will become crucially important in the coming years. Generating such policy-relevant knowledge may be particularly important for developing countries such as India. It is with this backdrop that, in this paper, we analyze future heat waves in India by using observations and a large number of model simulations of historical, + 1.5 °C, and + 2.0 °C warmer worlds. In both the future scenarios, there is an increased probability of heat waves during June and July when the Indian monsoon is in full swing and humidity is high, which makes the heat events even more of a health risk. While the highest temperatures in heat waves may not increase much in future climates, the duration and areal extent of the heat waves will most likely increase, leading to the emergence of new heat wave-prone zones in India. The results indicate that the joint frequencies of the longest duration and large area events could be nearly threefold greater in the + 1.5 °C and fivefold greater in the + 2.0 °C future scenarios compared to historical simulations. Thus, overall, the study indicates a substantial increase in the risk of heat events that typically elicit warnings from forecasters. The likely widespread and persistent nature of heat wave events in the future, as revealed by this study, will require planning and adaptation measures beyond the short-term disaster planning frameworks currently in place. Exploring what these measures might look like is beyond the scope of this study, but it underlines the importance of developing climate knowledge with high temporal and geographical resolution capable of informing adaptation policy and planning.

+1.5 °C and +2.0 °C↗