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At least 325 records · Page 18

A simple test of independence for truncated data with applications to redshift surveys

This paper presents an easily applied permutation test for H0, closely related to Lyden-Bell's (1971) estimate of the marginal distribution of truncated data. The test is applied to two redshift-magnitude surveys, one of galaxies and one of quasars. Assuming statistical independence, testing H0 amounts to testing validity of the cosmological model. Segal's (1986) chronomatic cosmological model is rejected under H0. On the other hand, for the quasar sample H0 is rejected strongly in a conventional cosmological model (and in a chronomatic model as well) indicating either incorrectness of the models or, as is more commonly assumed, indicating strong luminosity evolution.

Efron, Bradley↗

Determination of the Corrosive Conditions Present within Aircraft Lap-Splice Joints

The complexity of airframe structure lends itself to damage resulting from crevice corrosion. Fuselage lap-splice joints are a particularly important structural detail in this regard because of the difficulty associated with detection and measurement of corrosion in these occluded regions. The objective of this work is to develop a laboratory corrosion test protocol to identify the chemistry to which lap joints are exposed and to develop a model of the corrosion within the joints. A protocol for collecting and identifying the chemistry of airframe crevice corrosion has been developed. Capillary electrophoresis (CE) is used to identify the ionic species contained in corrosion product samples removed from fuselage lap splice joints. CE analysis has been performed on over sixty corrosion product samples removed from both civilian and military aircraft. Over twenty different ions have been detected. Measurements of pH of wetted corroded surfaces indicated an alkaline occluded solution. After determining the species present and their relative concentrations, the resultant solution was reproduced in bulk and electrochemical tests were performed to determine the corrosion rate. Electrochemical analyses of the behavior of AA2024-T3 in these solutions gave corrosion rates of up to 250 microns per year (10 mpy). Additional tests have determined the relative importance of each of the detected ions in model solutions used for future predictive tests. The statistically significant ions have been used to create a second generation solution. Laboratory studies have also included exposure tests involving artificial lap joints exposed to various simulated bulk and crevice environments. The extent and morphology of the attack in artificial lap joints has been compared to studies of corroded samples from actual aircraft. Other effects, such as temperature and potential, as well as the impact of the environment on fatigue crack growth have also been studied.

Lewis, Karen S.↗

Evaluating User Errors and Temporal Trends in Marine Fish Communities Using 360-Degree Underwater Photography

The use of environmental DNA (eDNA) sampling has been proposed as a complementary method to monitor fish species in marine environments, offering a non-invasive and potentially more efficient approach to marine species observations. eDNA monitoring could be especially useful in and around sites targeted for marine energy generation as these regions need regular monitoring that would be impractical with traditional techniques. Before we can fully rely upon eDNA, we must first verify its accuracy against other proven methods, such as the use of underwater photography. In this study, I deployed a 360-degree camera in the tidal channel of Sequim Bay once a month during several hours overlapping slack tide. I investigated how having multiple people identify and count fish on underwater images could affect the overall results. Using chi square tests in R, I compared my fish identifications and counts to those made by another intern on the same images recorded in August. I found significant differences in the number of species identified and the total individual counts between the two different datasets. I also tested the statistical differences in both Shannon diversity and Pielou evenness indices between the August, September, and November camera deployments using a Hutcheson t-test. Only one significant difference was found in the Shannon index comparisons, and none were found between the Pielou evenness comparisons. These findings show that if multiple identifiers are used to process underwater images, quality control checks must be made to reduce the potential for error. This also points toward the possibility to leverage more advanced image analysis processes, such as automated image analysis software. The findings from this study also show that the dynamics of marine fish communities can vary over a few months; however, further analysis is needed to determine the extent of the seasonal changes in Sequim Bay.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

JAN transistor and diode characterization test program

A statistical summary of electrical characterization was performed on JAN diodes and transistors. Parameters are presented with test conditions, mean, standard deviation, lowest reading, 10% point, 90% point and highest reading.

Takeda, H.↗

CMB low multipole alignments across WMAP and Planck data releases

ABSTRACT The first observations of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) from NASA's Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP) led to finding ‘alignment’ anomalies not expected from fluctuations in the isotropic cosmological model. We study the data of all 8 full-sky public releases since then to test for anomalous alignments and shapes of the first 60 multipoles, i.e. over the range $2\le l \le 61$. We use rotationally invariant and covariant statistics to test isotropy of all subsequent WMAP data releases, along with those from the ESA’s Planck mission. Anomalous alignments among the multipoles $l=1, 2, 3$ are very consistent and robust. More alignments are detected, some of them new, while significance is diluted by the large range of the search. Power entropy, a measure of the randomness of the multipoles, is consistently anomalous at about $2\sigma$ level or better across all data releases. It appears that the CMB is not as random as the cosmological principle predicts on large angular scales.

Patel, Sanjeet Kumar↗

QuantifyML: How good is my machine learning model?

This paper presents an approach, QuantifyML, which employs model counting to assess the learnability and robustness of machine learning models. Typically the efficacy of machine learning models is determined by computing their accuracy statistically on test data sets. However, this may be misleading, if the test data is not representative of the problem that is being studied. Further, two different models may have the same accuracy on a given data set, measured statistically, but may be very different in their behavior on unseen data. Also, models with high accuracy could have poor adversarial robustness. In QuantifyML, our goal is to precisely quantify the extent to which machine learning models have learned and generalized from the given data. In QuantifyML, a trained model is translated into a C program, which is fed to the CBMC model checking tool to produce a formula in Conjunctive Normal Form (CNF), which in turn is analyzed with state-of-the-art model counters to efficiently obtain precise counts w.r.t different outputs. QuantifyML enables i) evaluating the learnability of models by comparing the counts for the outputs to ground truth, expressed as logical predicates (if available), ii) comparing the performance of different models that may be built with different machine learning algorithms (e.g., decision-trees vs. neural networks), and iii) quantifying the robustness of trained models around given inputs. Our evaluation demonstrates these applications of QuantifyML on decision trees and neural networks trained to learn relational properties of graphs, for which we know the ground truth, and to perform image classification, for which we do not have the ground truth, but we can quantify local robustness.

Deep Neural Networks↗

Statistical modeling of scintillation effects

Scintillation produces fluctuation of the complex envelope of a modulated signal. A useful way to characterize scintillation effects is to describe the signal statistics that result when a CW wave is transmitted through a random medium. Many theoretical treatments describe the signal statistics in a manner identical with the noise theory of Rice. These theories, however, predict Rice statistics only at a very great distance from the perturbing medium, and it has been suspected that generalization to permit the quadrature components of the scattered signal to be partially correlated Gaussian variates might better match the observed signal statistics. Recent tests of signals observed through three types of structured plasma have consistently confirmed this speculation and have revealed a surprising consistency in parameters describing the first-order signal statistics.

Fremouw, E. J.↗

Assessing the Relationships Between Sensorimotor Biomarkers and Post-Landing Functional Task Performance

Spaceflight drives adaptive changes in healthy individuals appropriate for sensorimotor function in a microgravity environment. These changes are maladaptive for return to earth's gravity. The inter-individual variability of sensorimotor decrements is striking, although poorly understood. The goal of this study was to identify a set of behavioral, neuroimaging and genetic measures that can be used to predict early post-flight performance on a set of sensorimotor tasks. Astronauts were recruited who previously participated in sensorimotor field tests and/or posturography soon after long-duration spaceflight. Behavioral tests included assessments of sensory dependency and adaptability. Visual dependency involved treadmill walking while viewing a moving virtual visual scene. Vestibular perceptual thresholds were measured while seated during lateral translations. Proprioception dependency was measured during one-legged stance on a horizontal air-bearing surface. Ground assessment of adaptability was performed (1) during treadmill walking with a virtual linear hallway and a moving walking surface, and (2) during multiple trials of navigating an obstacle course while wearing reversing prisms (adaptive Functional Mobility Test, aFMT). The neuroimaging tests characterized individual differences in regional brain volumes (using Structural MRI) and white matter microstructure (using Diffusion Tensor Imaging) to serve as potential predictors of adaptive capacity. The genetic tests utilized saliva samples to examine variations in four genes chosen because of their ability to differentiate sensorimotor adaptation ability in a normative population, including Catechol-O-methyltransferase (COMT), Dopamine Receptor D2 (DRD2), Brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) and the α2-adrenergic receptor. Thirty ISS crewmembers were recruited, including 12 first-time fliers, 6F, and mission durations lasting 185.5 ± 45.5 days, mean ± std. We utilized a combination of three post-flight functional task outcomes: tandem walk, recovery from fall and dynamic posturography. There was considerable variability among all post-flight performance outcomes. Based on an ordinal scale survey, 72% indicated their ability to perform functional tasks were more impacted postflight relative to inflight with 50% indicating they needed to restrict movements for a longer period postflight relative to inflight. While there is a strong association within tests obtained at different R+0 timepoints, by R+24 hr performance on one post-flight test does not necessarily correlate with performance on other post-flight tests. Preliminary statistical analysis indicates combining biomarkers will increase predictive power and this will be explored with future analyses. Our preliminary findings underscore the importance of a comprehensive post-flight test battery including different types of tasks with varying sensory feedback. Understanding the relationships between these sensorimotor biomarkers and post-flight functional task performance improve both our understanding of the individual variability and our strategy to optimize sensorimotor countermeasures.

biomarkers↗

Detection of DoS Attacks Using ARFIMA Modeling of GOOSE Communication in IEC 61850 Substations

Integration of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) in modern smart grids (SGs) offers many advantages including the use of renewables and an effective way to protect, control and monitor the energy transmission and distribution. To reach an optimal operation of future energy systems, availability, integrity and confidentiality of data should be guaranteed. Research on the cyber-physical security of electrical substations based on IEC 61850 is still at an early stage. In the present work, we first model the network traffic data in electrical substations, then, we present a statistical Anomaly Detection (AD) method to detect Denial of Service (DoS) attacks against the Generic Object Oriented Substation Event (GOOSE) network communication. According to interpretations on the self-similarity and the Long-Range Dependency (LRD) of the data, an Auto-Regressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average (ARFIMA) model was shown to describe well the GOOSE communication in the substation process network. Based on this ARFIMA-model and in view of cyber-physical security, an effective model-based AD method is developed and analyzed. Two variants of the statistical AD considering statistical hypothesis testing based on the Generalized Likelihood Ratio Test (GLRT) and the cumulative sum (CUSUM) are presented to detect flooding attacks that might affect the availability of the data. Our work presents a novel AD method, with two different variants, tailored to the specific features of the GOOSE traffic in IEC 61850 substations. The statistical AD is capable of detecting anomalies at unknown change times under the realistic assumption of unknown model parameters. The performance of both variants of the AD method is validated and assessed using data collected from a simulation case study. We perform several Monte-Carlo simulations under different noise variances. The detection delay is provided for each detector and it represents the number of discrete time samples after which an anomaly is detected. In fact, our statistical AD method with both variants (CUSUM and GLRT) has around half the false positive rate and a smaller detection delay when compared with two of the closest works found in the literature. Our AD approach based on the GLRT detector has the smallest false positive rate among all considered approaches. Whereas, our AD approach based on the CUSUM test has the lowest false negative rate thus the best detection rate. Depending on the requirements as well as the costs of false alarms or missed anomalies, both variants of our statistical detection method can be used and are further analyzed using composite detection metrics.

IEC 61850 electrical substations↗

An evaluation of grease ball bearing lubricants in vacuum

Because many future spacecraft will require mechanisms to operate for long periods of time in environments which are inimical to most bearing lubricants, a series of tests has been started to evaluate 25 grease type lubricants in R-4 size bearings in vacuum at ambient temperature for a 1 year period. Four repetitions of each test are made to provide statistical samples. These tests will be used to select from two to five lubricants for 5 year tests in the same environment. At the present time fifteen test sets have been completed and five sets are being tested. The best results to date have been obtained with perfluoropolyether greases.

Demorest, K. E.↗

An evaluation of grease type ball bearing lubricants operating in various environments /Status report no. 2/

Because many future spacecraft or space stations will require mechanisms to operate for long periods of time in environments which are inimical to most bearing lubricants, a series of tests has been started to evaluate 25 grease type lubricants in R-4 size bearings in five different environments for a 1 year period. Four repetitions of each test are made to provide statistical samples. These tests will be used to select from two to five lubricants for 5 year tests in the same environments. At the present time, approximately 30 test sets have been completed and 25 sets are underway. To date, best results in all environments have been obtained with a high viscosity index perfluoropolyether grease.

Demorest, K. E.↗

Terrestrial photovoltaic cell process testing

The paper examines critical test parameters, criteria for selecting appropriate tests, and the use of statistical controls and test patterns to enhance PV-cell process test results. The coverage of critical test parameters is evaluated by examining available test methods and then screening these methods by considering the ability to measure those critical parameters which are most affected by the generic process, the cost of the test equipment and test performance, and the feasibility for process testing.

Burger, D. R.↗

A Parameter-masked Mock Data Challenge for Beyond-two-point Galaxy Clustering Statistics

The past few years have seen the emergence of a wide array of novel techniques for analyzing high-precision data from upcoming galaxy surveys, which aim to extend the statistical analysis of galaxy clustering data beyond the linear regime and the canonical two-point (2pt) statistics. We test and benchmark some of these new techniques in a community data challenge named “Beyond-2pt,” initiated during the Aspen 2022 Summer Program “Large-Scale Structure Cosmology beyond 2-Point Statistics,” whose first round of results we present here. The challenge data set consists of high-precision mock galaxy catalogs for clustering in real space, in redshift space, and on a light cone. Participants in the challenge have developed end-to-end pipelines to analyze mock catalogs and extract unknown (“masked”) cosmological parameters of the underlying ΛCDM models with their methods. The methods represented are density-split clustering, nearest neighbor statistics, BACCO power spectrum emulator, void statistics, LEFTfield field-level inference using effective field theory (EFT), and joint power spectrum and bispectrum analyses using both EFT and simulation-based inference. In this work, we review the results of the challenge, focusing on problems solved, lessons learned, and future research needed to perfect the emerging beyond-2pt approaches. The unbiased parameter recovery demonstrated in this challenge by multiple statistics and the associated modeling and inference frameworks supports the credibility of cosmology constraints from these methods. The challenge data set is publicly available, and we welcome future submissions from methods that are not yet represented.

Krause, Elisabeth [Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (U↗

SEE Rate Estimation: Model Complexity and Data Requirements

Statistical Methods outlined in [Ladbury, TNS20071 can be generalized for Monte Carlo Rate Calculation Methods Two Monte Carlo Approaches: a) Rate based on vendor-supplied (or reverse-engineered) model SEE testing and statistical analysis performed to validate model; b) Rate calculated based on model fit to SEE data Statistical analysis very similar to case for CREME96. Information Theory allows simultaneous consideration of multiple models with different complexities: a) Model with lowest AIC usually has greatest predictive power; b) Model averaging using AIC weights may give better performance if several models have similar good performance; and c) Rates can be bounded for a given confidence level over multiple models, as well as over the parameter space of a model.

Ladbury, Ray↗

Lithium-Ion Batteries Being Evaluated for Low-Earth-Orbit Applications

The performance characteristics and long-term cycle life of aerospace lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries in low-Earth-orbit applications are being investigated. A statistically designed test using Li-ion cells from various manufacturers began in September 2004 to study the effects of temperature, end-of-charge voltage, and depth-of-discharge operating conditions on the cycle life and performance of these cells. Performance degradation with cycling is being evaluated, and performance characteristics and failure modes are being modeled statistically. As technology improvements are incorporated into aerospace Li-ion cells, these new designs can be added to the test to evaluate the effect of the design changes on performance and life. Cells from Lithion and Saft have achieved over 2000 cycles under 10 different test condition combinations and are being evaluated. Cells from Mine Safety Appliances (MSA) and modules made up of commercial-off-the-shelf 18650 Li-ion cells connected in series/parallel combinations are scheduled to be added in the summer of 2005. The test conditions include temperatures of 10, 20, and 30 C, end-of-charge voltages of 3.85, 3.95, and 4.05 V, and depth-of-discharges from 20 to 40 percent. The low-Earth-orbit regime consists of a 55 min charge, at a constant-current rate that is 110 percent of the current required to fully recharge the cells in 55 min until the charge voltage limit is reached, and then at a constant voltage for the remaining charge time. Cells are discharged for 35 min at the current required for their particular depth-of-discharge condition. Cells are being evaluated in four-cell series strings with charge voltage limits being applied to individual cells by the use of charge-control units designed and produced at the NASA Glenn Research Center. These charge-control units clamp the individual cell voltages as each cell reaches its end-of-charge voltage limit, and they bypass the excess current from that cell, while allowing the full current flow to the remaining cells in the pack. The goal of this evaluation is to identify conditions and cell designs for Li-ion technology that can achieve more than 30,000 low-Earth-orbit cycles. Testing is being performed at the Naval Surface Warfare Center, Crane Division, in Crane, Indiana.

McKissock, Barbara I.↗

Statistical analysis of effective singular values in matrix rank determination

A major problem in using SVD (singular-value decomposition) as a tool in determining the effective rank of a perturbed matrix is that of distinguishing between significantly small and significantly large singular values to the end, conference regions are derived for the perturbed singular values of matrices with noisy observation data. The analysis is based on the theories of perturbations of singular values and statistical significance test. Threshold bounds for perturbation due to finite-precision and i.i.d. random models are evaluated. In random models, the threshold bounds depend on the dimension of the matrix, the noisy variance, and predefined statistical level of significance. Results applied to the problem of determining the effective order of a linear autoregressive system from the approximate rank of a sample autocorrelation matrix are considered. Various numerical examples illustrating the usefulness of these bounds and comparisons to other previously known approaches are given.

Konstantinides, Konstantinos↗

Surveillance system and method having an adaptive sequential probability fault detection test

System and method providing surveillance of an asset such as a process and/or apparatus by providing training and surveillance procedures that numerically fit a probability density function to an observed residual error signal distribution that is correlative to normal asset operation and then utilizes the fitted probability density function in a dynamic statistical hypothesis test for providing improved asset surveillance.

Herzog, James P.↗

Surveillance system and method having an adaptive sequential probability fault detection test

System and method providing surveillance of an asset such as a process and/or apparatus by providing training and surveillance procedures that numerically fit a probability density function to an observed residual error signal distribution that is correlative to normal asset operation and then utilizes the fitted probability density function in a dynamic statistical hypothesis test for providing improved asset surveillance.

Bickford, Randall L.↗