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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 325 records · Page 18
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Mycobacterium tuberculosis Phe-tRNA synthetase: structural insights into tRNA recognition and aminoacylation

Abstract Tuberculosis, caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis, responsible for ∼1.5 million fatalities in 2018, is the deadliest infectious disease. Global spread of multidrug resistant strains is a public health threat, requiring new treatments. Aminoacyl-tRNA synthetases are plausible candidates as potential drug targets, because they play an essential role in translating the DNA code into protein sequence by attaching a specific amino acid to their cognate tRNAs. We report structures of M. tuberculosis Phe-tRNA synthetase complexed with an unmodified tRNAPhe transcript and either L-Phe or a nonhydrolyzable phenylalanine adenylate analog. High-resolution models reveal details of two modes of tRNA interaction with the enzyme: an initial recognition via indirect readout of anticodon stem-loop and aminoacylation ready state involving interactions of the 3′ end of tRNAPhe with the adenylate site. For the first time, we observe the protein gate controlling access to the active site and detailed geometry of the acyl donor and tRNA acceptor consistent with accepted mechanism. We biochemically validated the inhibitory potency of the adenylate analog and provide the most complete view of the Phe-tRNA synthetase/tRNAPhe system to date. The presented topography of amino adenylate-binding and editing sites at different stages of tRNA binding to the enzyme provide insights for the rational design of anti-tuberculosis drugs.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Application of multi-criteria decision analysis techniques and decision support framework for informing select agent designation for agricultural animal pathogens

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), Division of Agricultural Select Agents and Toxins (DASAT) established a list of biological agents and toxins (Select Agent List) that potentially threaten agricultural health and safety, the procedures governing the transfer of those agents, and training requirements for entities working with them. Every 2 years the USDA DASAT reviews the Select Agent List, using subject matter experts (SMEs) to perform an assessment and rank the agents. To assist the USDA DASAT biennial review process, we explored the applicability of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) techniques and a Decision Support Framework (DSF) in a logic tree format to identify pathogens for consideration as select agents, applying the approach broadly to include non-select agents to evaluate its robustness and generality. We conducted a literature review of 41 pathogens against 21 criteria for assessing agricultural threat, economic impact, and bioterrorism risk and documented the findings to support this assessment. The most prominent data gaps were those for aerosol stability and animal infectious dose by inhalation and ingestion routes. Technical review of published data and associated scoring recommendations by pathogen-specific SMEs was found to be critical for accuracy, particularly for pathogens with very few known cases, or where proxy data (e.g., from animal models or similar organisms) were used to address data gaps. The MCDA analysis supported the intuitive sense that select agents should rank high on the relative risk scale when considering agricultural health consequences of a bioterrorism attack. However, comparing select agents with non-select agents indicated that there was not a clean break in scores to suggest thresholds for designating select agents, requiring subject matter expertise collectively to establish which analytical results were in good agreement to support the intended purpose in designating select agents. The DSF utilized a logic tree approach to identify pathogens that are of sufficiently low concern that they can be ruled out from consideration as a select agent. In contrast to the MCDA approach, the DSF rules out a pathogen if it fails to meet even one criteria threshold. Both the MCDA and DSF approaches arrived at similar conclusions, suggesting the value of employing the two analytical approaches to add robustness for decision making.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Numerical simulation of asteroid geometry variance on airburst threat

For an atmospheric airburst the primary source of concern when assessing uncertainty is the size and velocity. Determining these properties provides the basis for threat assessment, as the total energy of the asteroid may then be estimated, and the threat investigated thoroughly. Even with clarity as to how much energy an asteroid may deposit, a great deal of uncertainty still exists for the actual energy deposition process. One such source of uncertainty is the geometry of the incoming asteroid. The geometry of an asteroid will alter the stress distribution during entry, which adds uncertainty to when fracture will occur. Here, in this study, we use Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics to model the atmospheric airburst of Tunguska-scale asteroids with varying geometric profiles, including a sphere, ellipsoid, binary and superellipsoid. Each asteroid is modeled as a homogenous structure with strength. We assess uncertainty through a series of planar 2D simulation cases for each geometry, comparing the source of stochasticity across geometries. A single 3D airburst simulation for each geometry is also analyzed. Additionally, the 3D cases are compared to the highly uncertain Tunguska event, predicting variance in burst height across geometries, but all bounded by theoretical burst heights proposed for Tunguska.

Airburst↗
DOE OSTI2022

RADAMS: Resilient and adaptive alert and attention management strategy against Informational Denial-of-Service (IDoS) attacks

Attacks exploiting human attentional vulnerability have posed severe threats to cybersecurity. In this work, we identify and formally define a new type of proactive attentional attacks called Informational Denial-of-Service (IDoS) attacks that generate a large volume of feint attacks to overload human operators and hide real attacks among feints. Here, we incorporate human factors (e.g., levels of expertise, stress, and efficiency) and empirical psychological results (e.g., the Yerkes-Dodson law and the sunk cost fallacy) to model the operators’ attention dynamics and their decision-making processes along with the real-time alert monitoring and inspection. To assist human operators in dismissing the feints and escalating the real attacks timely and accurately, we develop a Resilient and Adaptive Data-driven alert and Attention Management Strategy (RADAMS) that de-emphasizes alerts selectively based on the abstracted category labels of the alerts. RADAMS uses reinforcement learning to achieve a customized and transferable design for various human operators and evolving IDoS attacks. The integrated modeling and theoretical analysis lead to the Product Principle of Attention (PPoA), fundamental limits, and the tradeoff among crucial human and economic factors. Experimental results corroborate that the proposed strategy outperforms the default strategy and can reduce the IDoS risk by as much as 20%. Besides, the strategy is resilient to large variations of costs, attack frequencies, and human attention capacities. We have recognized interesting phenomena such as attentional risk equivalency, attacker’s dilemma, and the half-truth optimal attack strategy.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

An investigation of hard-disk drive circularity accounting for socio-technical dynamics and data uncertainty

The installed data storage capacity in the U.S. will reach 2.2 Zettabytes by 2025, generating about 50 million units of end-of-life (EOL) hard-disk drives (HDDs) per year. Due to data security concerns, most EOL HDDs are currently shredded (even when still functioning), representing an economic loss. Moreover, raw material extraction linked to the increased demand for storage causes environmental impacts. Besides mitigating the threat posed by sudden restrictions of raw materials, the circular economy (CE) offers to maximize value retention in the economy and reduce the environmental impacts of human activities. Common CE strategies are reusing and recycling products. However, the reuse of hard disk drives is currently burdened by the lack of trust HDD end-users have toward other non-physical means of data removal than shredding. Here, an agent-based modeling (ABM) approach is proposed to explore how techno-economic and social factors affect end-users' decisions to adopt EOL management practices other than shredding. The proposed method also accounts for data uncertainty by applying a semi-quantitative approach. Results demonstrate how increased green procurement and more robust standards could spur end-users' trust toward data-wiping technologies. Even when accounting for uncertainty, HDDs' reuse brings better environmental and economic benefits than HDD shredding followed by material recovery. The semi-quantitative approach proposed in this study could be more universally applied in future ABM, especially given the often-stochastic nature of such models. The developed ABM is also the first to represent several HDD industry stakeholders and demonstrate how the HDD shredding lock-in situation could be resolved.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Watching for light: An enterprise roadmap for trustworthy laser threat warning (LTW) to protect national assets

Comprehensive space force protection must include effective and trustworthy laser threat warning (LTW). Effective LTW will detect and characterize threats to space assets and thus enhance space deterrence. LTW must be trustworthy: able to categorize threats and non-threats by being both sensitive to true events and resistant to false alarms. Outside of the laboratory, the statistics and even the roles of lasers become unclear. In the chain of events leading to an attack, the laser may be the last link to be understood. Human situational awareness and informal reasoning must blend statistics with circumstantial evidence to visualize these chains before they are clear. This paper sets out an industrial model for an enterprise that will routinely produce trustworthy LTW. By incorporating psychology and economics, this enterprise can overcome the difficulties and perils of cooperation in networked defense and intelligence. This roadmap suggests how the enterprise can incentivize distracted actors with different goals to share what they know and coordinate what they do.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2024

Intensification of future subsurface marine heatwaves in an eddy-resolving model

A shift in depth range enables marine organisms to adapt to marine heatwaves (MHWs). Subsurface MHWs could limit this pathway, yet their response to climate warming remains unclear. Here, using an eddy-resolving Earth system model forced under a high emission scenario, we project a robust global increase in subsurface MHWs driven by rising subsurface mean temperatures and enhanced temperature variability. Historically, maximum MHW intensity occurs around 100m depth, which shifts to the faster-warming surface under greenhouse warming. However, removing the long-term warming trend yields an increase in subsurface MHW intensity and annual days greater than that at the surface, especially in large marine ecosystem regions, primarily due to increased variability. Additionally, days of the surface and subsurface concurrent event increase ten times more than those of individual events. Our study highlights a heightened threat to marine organisms under global warming, as the increased subsurface heatwaves reduce their refuge options.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Towards Secure Autonomous Vehicles: An Integrated Edge and Multi-Modal Machine Learning Framework for Intrusion Detection

Autonomous vehicles (AVs) are vulnerable to cyberattacks targeting both internal communication networks and external perception sensors. While edge-based intrusion de- tection for Controller Area Network (CAN) buses offers real-time protection, it cannot detect cross-modal threats. Conversely, multi-modal fusion approaches improve coverage but often lack efficiency for in-vehicle deployment. This thesis integrates two complemen- tary solutions: (1) a lightweight, edge-deployable machine learning framework for CAN bus intrusion detection, and (2) a late-fusion system combining CAN FD and LiDAR data. Together, they form a hierarchical defense capable of handling single-modality and coordi- nated attacks. Simulations show that CAN-only models reach 93% accuracy on simulated DoS, spoofing, replay, and fuzzy attacks, while the fusion system achieves 0.87 AUC and 0.82 F1-score at 2 ms latency. This unified framework establishes a scalable, explainable, and field-ready strategy for AV cybersecurity.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Load altering attack-tolerant defense strategy for load frequency control system

Cyber attacks are emerging threats to every information-oriented energy management system. By violating the cyber systems, the hacker can disrupt the security and stability due to the strong coupling between the cyber and physical facilities. In this paper, one type of cyber attacks designated as the load altering attack is studied for the power system frequency control, and corresponding defense strategies are proposed to improve the frequency control performance. Considering the difficulty of the application of model-based controller into large-scale power systems, a novel model-free defense framework is for the first time presented. Under this framework, both active defense and passive defense strategies are designed. The former assumes that the defender has the initiative to learn different attack scenarios. Adaptive defense strategies are implemented using the online attack identification information and off-line trained strategy pool. The latter assumes that the defender passively tolerates various attack scenarios via the pre-trained off-line strategy. Both approaches prove to be effective through validation based on the IEEE benchmark systems. The proposed defense framework and defense strategies can be extended to other energy control systems to enhance their attack tolerance capability.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Bioscience COVID Rapid Response Report

The COVID-19 disease outbreak and its impact on global health and economies have highlighted the national security threat posed by pathogens with pandemic potential and the need for rapid development of effective diagnostics and medical countermeasures. The Bioscience IA selected for funding rapid COVID LDRD project proposals that addressed critical R&D gaps in pandemic response that could be accomplished in 1-3 months with the requested funding. In total, the Bioscience IA funded nine rapid projects that addressed 1) rapid and accurate methods for SARS-CoV-2 RNA detection, 2) modeling tools to help prioritize populations for diagnostic testing, 3) bioinformatic tools to track SARS-CoV-2 genomic sequence changes over time, 4) molecular inhibitors of SARS-CoV-2 cellular infection, and 5) method for rapid staging of COVID19 disease to enable administration of more effective treatments. In addition, LDRD funded one larger project to be completed in FY21 that leverages Sandia capabilities to address the need for platform diagnostics and therapeutics that can be rapidly tailored against emerging pathogen targets.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Optimizing Power Line Undergrounding Decisions under Varying Wildfire Risk and Weather Scenarios

Abstract—The threat of wildfire ignitions from electric power equipment has led utilities to increasingly turn to preemptive power shutoffs, which, while effective in reducing grid-induced wildfire risk, can cause significant load loss. Undergrounding power lines is an alternative strategy for preventing grid-induced wildfires. However, undergrounding lines is costly, so an efficient undergrounding plan must balance reductions in wildfire risk and load loss with the cost of undergrounding lines. We propose a robust optimization model to identify which power lines to underground to maximize load served while limiting wildfire risk across a range of wildfire risk and weather scenarios. Since solving this problem may be computationally heavy for large power grids and many operating scenarios, we present a delayed constraint generation algorithm to iteratively add scenarios until an optimal solution is found. We evaluate the performance of this framework on the RTS-GMLC with scenarios representing a year of operating conditions and compare it with a stochastic programming formulation. Our results indicate that our undergrounding model is successful in reducing load shed and risk compared to baseline cases in which no mitigation action is taken and only power shutoffs are implemented (no undergrounding). The robust formulation also reduces more load shed than the stochastic formulation in the most extreme scenarios. Index Terms—grid resilience, optimization, transmission systems, underground power lines, wildfire risk.

Taylor, S. [Department of Electrical and Computer ↗
DOE OSTI2020

Development of the INL Thermal Energy Distribution System (TEDS) in the Modelica Eco-System for Validation and Verification

This report provides an overview on the development of the Thermal Energy Distribution System (TEDS) in the Modelica process model eco-system at Idaho National Laboratory as part of the integrated energy system initiative. Model development has led to the creation of a dynamic process model of the experimental TEDS facility housed within the Engineering Science Laboratory (ESL) at INL. The model was then used during the pre-construction phase of the experimental effort to inform experimental design (insulation requirements, bypass line placement, expected performance of components) and to test innovative control schemes prior to the initial operation. The TEDS model developed in Modelica includes the primary components of the TEDS experimental unit including: a 200kW Chromalox heater, a single-tank packed bed thermal energy storage system filled with 0.125 inch Alumina (Al 2 O 3 ), an ethylene-glycol to Therminol-66 heat exchanger, system piping, six control valves, and all associated temperature, pressure, and mass flow sensors. The model does not include nitrogen fill gas tanks, or associated overfill tanks, as these are not part of standard system control. Two simulation sets were run. The first is a five-hour test that operates as a shakedown test for the facility. This simulation puts the facility through all five potential operating modes and showcases the ability of valving, control sensors, and component controllers to meet the system demands. The second case imposes a typical summer day demand on the system from a region with mixed commercial and residential electrical needs where the generator alone cannot meet peak demand but instead requires the thermal storage unit to act as a peaking unit. Over the course of the fifteen-hour discharge cycle heat losses account for a heat loss of approximately 15°C in outlet temperature. Such heat losses would lead to a decrease in overall system efficiency and may lead to additional design changes for such designs in the future that may include a topping heater. Through commencement of this work, a systems level model of TEDS with associated control systems, sensors, piping diameters, and component capabilities has been created. This model has been utilized in the pre-experimental phase to inform system design, insulation thicknesses, and potential control schemes to operate the system effectively and safely. Once TEDS begins operation, this model will be refined, tuned, and used for validation and verification purposes.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Design and Development of a High Fidelity Cyber-Physical Testbed

In order to ensure that future critical infrastructure systems are resilient to various types of such advanced and persistent threats, it is important to develop and integrate tailored solutions that holistically address cyber-attack detection and mitigation in a timely manner such that adverse system impacts that impact a large population are avoided. Further, it is essential to create environments that allow control, protection and communication to exist within a realistic environment to analyze the effects of adverse conditions and system operating modes. This project aims to establish a high-fidelity testbed environment for modeling and simulating a single microgrid all the way up to a network of microgrids along with baseline controls, protection, and associated cyber communication. This is an important activity because accurately modeling and simulating the various power-electronics-based DERs and loads in a microgrid is critical to adequately capturing their behaviors over a wide range of off-normal conditions, as well as to evaluate the resilience of the system using the developed controls. The work presented in this report focuses on the process of building this high-fidelity testbed and the associated experimentation it enables. The model enables the creation of high-fidelity use cases and associated datasets that have been used extensively within the initiative to study resilience and support novel control development and prototyping. The work heavily leverages existing capability that is part of the high-fidelity cyber-physical system experimentation lab to create a power hardware-in-the-loop setup. The report also details the creation of an automated model building platform that can enable high-fidelity real-time models to be built without much effort allowing existing low-fidelity models to be analyzed in higher fidelity. Lastly, the report also discusses efforts center around scaling to large complex power system models to make the experimentation more effective.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluation of IEC 62443 Standard Gaps for Electric Grid Substation Model Use Case

This report presents an evaluation of the IEC 62443 standards in the context of electric grid substations, as part of a collaborative effort among Sandia National Laboratories (SNL), Idaho National Laboratory (INL), and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). The primary objective is to assess the applicability of these standards to enhance cybersecurity measures for industrial automation and control systems (IACS) within the energy sector. The evaluation identifies strengths, such as the scalability of security levels and the structured lifecycle guidance provided by IEC 62443. However, it also highlights significant gaps, including limited integration of physical security, insufficient guidance for legacy systems, and challenges in addressing emerging threats like supply chain vulnerabilities. Recommendations for refining the standards are proposed, including the need for tailored guidance for securing legacy systems, integrating physical security with cybersecurity frameworks, and enhancing interoperability across multi-vendor environments. By addressing these gaps, the IEC 62443 standards can be strengthened to ensure comprehensive cybersecurity for electric grid substations, thereby supporting the resilience and reliability of critical energy infrastructure.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

U.S. Domestic Small Modular Reactor Security by Design

U.S. nuclear power facilities face increasing challenges in meeting evolving security requirements caused by evolving and expanding threats while keeping cost reasonable to make nuclear energy competitive. The addition of security features after a facility has been designed and without attention to optimization (the past approach) can lead to cost overruns. Incorporating security in the design process can provide robust, cost effective, and sufficient physical protection systems. The purpose of this work is to develop a framework for the integration of security into the design phase of Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) and the use of modeling and simulation tools to optimize the design of physical protection systems. This effort will intend to integrate security into the design phase of a model SMR that meets current NRC physical protection requirements and provide advanced solutions to improve physical protection and decrease costs. A suite of tools, including SCRIBE3D, PATHTRACE and Blender were used to model a hypothetical generic domestic SMR facility. Physical protection elements such as sensors, cameras, portal monitors, barriers, and guard forces were added to the model based on best practices for physical protection systems. One outsider sabotage scenario was examined with 4-8 adversaries to determine security metrics. This work will influence physical protection system designs and facility designs for U.S. domestic SMRs. The purpose of this project is to demonstrate how a series of experimental and modeling capabilities across the Department of Energy Complex can impact the design of U.S. domestic SMRs and the complete Safeguards and Security by Design (SSBD) for SMRs.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Computational Imaging for Intelligence in Highly Scattering Aerosols (Final Report)

Natural and man-made degraded visual environments pose major threats to national security. The random scattering and absorption of light by tiny particles suspended in the air reduces situational awareness and causes unacceptable down-time for critical systems and operations. To improve the situation, we have developed several approaches to interpret the information contained within scattered light to enhance sensing and imaging in scattering media. These approaches were tested at the Sandia National Laboratory Fog Chamber facility and with tabletop fog chambers. Computationally efficient light transport models were developed and leveraged for computational sensing. The models are based on a weak angular dependence approximation to the Boltzmann or radiative transfer equation that appears to be applicable in both the moderate and highly scattering regimes. After the new model was experimentally validated, statistical approaches for detection, localization, and imaging of objects hidden in fog were developed and demonstrated. A binary hypothesis test and the Neyman-Pearson lemma provided the highest theoretically possible probability of detection for a specified false alarm rate and signal-to-noise ratio. Maximum likelihood estimation allowed estimation of the fog optical properties as well as the position, size, and reflection coefficient of an object in fog. A computational dehazing approach was implemented to reduce the effects of scatter on images, making object features more readily discernible. We have developed, characterized, and deployed a new Tabletop Fog Chamber capable of repeatably generating multiple unique fog-analogues for optical testing in degraded visual environments. We characterized this chamber using both optical and microphysical techniques. In doing so we have explored the ability of droplet nucleation theory to describe the aerosols generated within the chamber, as well as Mie scattering theory to describe the attenuation of light by said aerosols, and correlated the aerosol microphysics to optical properties such as transmission and meteorological optical range (MOR). This chamber has proved highly valuable and has supported multiple efforts inclusive to and exclusive of this LDRD project to test optics in degraded visual environments. Circularly polarized light has been found to maintain its polarization state better than linearly polarized light when propagating through fog. This was demonstrated experimentally in both the visible and short-wave infrared (SWIR) by imaging targets made of different commercially available retroreflective films. It was found that active circularly polarized imaging can increase contrast and range compared to linearly polarized imaging. We have completed an initial investigation of the capability for machine learning methods to reduce the effects of light scattering when imaging through fog. Previously acquired experimental long-wave images were used to train an autoencoder denoising architecture. Overfitting was found to be a problem because of lack of variability in the object type in this data set. The lessons learned were used to collect a well labeled dataset with much more variability using the Tabletop Fog Chamber that will be available for future studies. We have developed several new sensing methods using speckle intensity correlations. First, the ability to image moving objects in fog was shown, establishing that our unique speckle imaging method can be implemented in dynamic scattering media. Second, the speckle decorrelation over time was found to be sensitive to fog composition, implying extensions to fog characterization. Third, the ability to distinguish macroscopically identical objects on a far-subwavelength scale was demonstrated, suggesting numerous applications ranging from nanoscale defect detection to security. Fourth, we have shown the capability to simultaneously image and localize hidden objects, allowing the speckle imaging method to be effective without prior object positional information. Finally, an interferometric effect was presented that illustrates a new approach for analyzing speckle intensity correlations that may lead to more effective ways to localize and image moving objects. All of these results represent significant developments that challenge the limits of the application of speckle imaging and open important application spaces. A theory was developed and simulations were performed to assess the potential transverse resolution benefit of relative motion in structured illumination for radar systems. Results for a simplified radar system model indicate that significant resolution benefits are possible using data from scanning a structured beam over the target, with the use of appropriate signal processing.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Air-coupled tsunamis generated from impacts and airbursts: Our understanding before Hunga-Tonga Hunga-Ha'apai

The effort to prevent or mitigate the effects of an impact on Earth is known as planetary defense. A significant component of planetary defense research involves risk assessment. Much of our understanding of the risk from near-Earth objects comes from the geologic record in the form of impact craters, but not all asteroid impacts are crater-forming events. Small asteroids explode before reaching the surface, generating an airburst, and most impacts into the ocean do not penetrate the water to form a crater in the sea floor. The risk from these non-crater-forming ocean impacts and airbursts is difficult to quantify and represents a significant uncertainty in our assessment of the overall threat. We are currently working to better understand impact scenarios that can generate dangerous tsunamis. One of the suggested mechanisms for the production of asteroid–generated tsunamis is by direct coupling of the pressure wave to the water, analogous to the means by which a moving weather front can generate a meteotsunami. To test this hypothesis, we ran a series of airburst simulations and provided time-resolved pressure and wind profiles to use as source functions for tsunami models. We used the CTH hydrocode to model the various airburst scenarios to compare to the results of other simulations and provide time dependent boundary conditions as input to shallow-water wave propagation codes. The strongest and most destructive meteotsunamis are generated by atmospheric pressure oscillations with amplitudes of only a few hPa1 (mbar), corresponding to changes in sea level of a few cm. The resulting wave is strongest when there is a resonance between the ocean and the atmospheric forcing. A Proudman resonance takes place when the atmospheric disturbance’s translational speed (U) equals the longwave phase speed $\sqrt{gh}$ of shallow water wave. Coupling is strongest when the Froude number (Fr=U/c) is unity. A weather front propagates much slower than the speed of sound, so meteotsunamis are most common and dangerous in shallow bodies of water such as the Mediterranean Sea or Lake Michigan. By contrast, the blast wave from an airburst or crater-forming impact propagates at a speed faster than a tsunami in the deepest ocean, and a Proudman resonance cannot be achieved even though the overpressures are orders of magnitude greater. However, blast wave profiles are N-waves in which a sharp shock wave leading to overpressure is followed by a more gradual rarefaction to a much longer-duration underpressure phase. Even though the blast outruns the water wave it is forcing, the tsunami should continue to be driven by the out-of-resonance gradient associated with the suction phase, which may depend strongly on the details of the airburst or impact scenario. The open question is whether there are any conditions under which such an airburst-driven tsunami can be dangerous enough to contribute to the overall impact risk. We have also identified other potential mechanisms for airburst-generated tsunamis: 1) reaction force at the surface from the plume ejected into space, which carries significant momentum, 2) expanding toroidal vortices at the surface, which travel more slowly than the shock wave and can generate a Proudman resonance in relatively shallow ocean (such as continental shelf), and 3) steam explosion from seawater ablation by a “Type II” (Libyan Desert Glass-type) airburst in which the hot vapor jet descends to the surface. On January 15, 2022, the Hunga-Tonga Hunga-Ha’apai volcano, located approximately 60 km north of Tongatapu, the main island of Tonga, violently erupted with a powerful explosion, culminating the period of volcanic activity that started in December of 2021. This event and resulting tsunamis provided an existence proof for the air pressure wave coupling mechanism we proposed. It also suggests that it can be stronger and more significant over much greater distances than we contemplated, leading to global tsunamis associated with impact events on land as well as in the water. Large atmospheric explosions generate global Lamb waves with larger amplitudes, longer periods, and slower speeds than the local and regional blast waves we modeled prior to that event. This paper reviews our analysis and modeling of airburst-driven tsunamis prior to the 2022 Hunga-Tonga Hunga-Ha’apai tsunami, which was the subject of two presentations at the 2023 Planetary Defense Conference and is the subject of another paper currently in preparation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Machine Intelligence to Detect, Characterise, and Defend against Influence Operations in the Information Environment

Social media has enabled a new era of manipulation in the information and cognitive domains. Deceptive content—misleading, falsified, and fabricated—is routinely created and spread in the modern social media environment with the intent to create confusion and widen political and social divides, and exploit the societal conflict exacerbated by these divides in the real-world (aka physical domain). Such disinformation campaigns demonstrate a threat to the integrity of economic, political, cultural, public health, and national security institutions around the world. In this work we overview our artificial intelligence (AI) capabilities to detect, describe, and defend against information operations on Twitter as an example social platform to understand the influence of misleading and falsified content diffusion and better enable those charged with defending against such manipulation to enable responsive parties to counter it. We first present novel linguistically-informed deep learning (DL) models for misinformation and disinformation detection, and present an in-depth linguistic analysis of psycho-linguistic markers across broad deception categories. We then demonstrate how our models perform in the multilingual and multimodal setting and categorize falsified and misleading content based on the intent to deceive. We also provide a large-scale analysis to describe user behavior and spread patterns while engaging with deceptive content and report novel findings about the immediate diffusion of deceptive content by characterizing the vulnerable sub-populations and their demographics, and explicitly measuring speed and scale of deception spread to uncover who shares deceptive content, how quickly, how much, and how evenly. In addition, we measure audience reactions to misinformation and disinformation at scale, distinguishing the reactions of users identified as bots versus humans. Finally, we take advantage of deep translation and generation models to create unique solutions for real-time defense against digital deception and discuss how to apply causal inference to prescribe and intervene into strategic communications jointly across information, cognitive, and physical domains.

artificial intelligence, deep learning, neural lan↗