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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Combining cosmic shear data with correlated photo-z uncertainties: constraints from DESY1 and HSC-DR1

An accurate calibration of the source redshift distribution p(z) is a key aspect in the analysis of cosmic shear data. This, one way or another, requires the use of spectroscopic or high-quality photometric samples. However, the difficulty to obtain colour-complete spectroscopic samples matching the depth of weak lensing catalogs means that the analyses of different cosmic shear datasets often use the same samples for redshift calibration. This introduces a source of statistical and systematic uncertainty that is highly correlated across different weak lensing datasets, and which must be accurately characterised and propagated in order to obtain robust cosmological constraints from their combination. In this paper we introduce a method to quantify and propagate the uncertainties on the source redshift distribution in two different surveys sharing the same calibrating sample. The method is based on an approximate analytical marginalisation of the p(z) statistical uncertainties and the correlated marginalisation of residual systematics. We apply this method to the combined analysis of cosmic shear data from the DESY1 data release and the HSC-DR1 data, using the COSMOS 30-band catalog as a common redshift calibration sample. We find that, although there is significant correlation in the uncertainties on the redshift distributions of both samples, this does not change the final constraints on cosmological parameters significantly. The same is true also for the impact of residual systematic uncertainties from the errors in the COSMOS 30-band photometric redshifts. Additionally, we show that these effects will still be negligible in Stage-IV datasets. Finally, the combination of DESY1 and HSC-DR1 allows us to constrain the "clumpiness" parameter to S 8 = ${0.768}_{-0.017}^{+0.021}$. This corresponds to a ~√(2) improvement in uncertainties with respect to either DES or HSC alone.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Sparse Bayesian mass mapping with uncertainties: local credible intervals

ABSTRACT Until recently, mass-mapping techniques for weak gravitational lensing convergence reconstruction have lacked a principled statistical framework upon which to quantify reconstruction uncertainties, without making strong assumptions of Gaussianity. In previous work, we presented a sparse hierarchical Bayesian formalism for convergence reconstruction that addresses this shortcoming. Here, we draw on the concept of local credible intervals (cf. Bayesian error bars) as an extension of the uncertainty quantification techniques previously detailed. These uncertainty quantification techniques are benchmarked against those recovered via Px-MALA – a state-of-the-art proximal Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm. We find that, typically, our recovered uncertainties are everywhere conservative (never underestimate the uncertainty, yet the approximation error is bounded above), of similar magnitude and highly correlated with those recovered via Px-MALA. Moreover, we demonstrate an increase in computational efficiency of $\mathcal {O}(10^6)$ when using our sparse Bayesian approach over MCMC techniques. This computational saving is critical for the application of Bayesian uncertainty quantification to large-scale stage IV surveys such as LSST and Euclid.

Price, M. A.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Statistical Uncertainty of Inhalation Dose Coefficients: Impact of Particle Deposition in ICRP 66 Human Respiratory Tract Model

Inhaled radioactive materials can pose a long-term health concern, as the material can be incorporated into the body’s metabolic pathways and remain in organs and tissues for extended durations. During the retention period, the radioactive material may localize in a source organ and irradiate adjacent target organs and tissues. Distribution of these materials changes over time, requiring biokinetic modeling to evaluate their movement through various tissues and organs. The evolving distribution depends on multiple inputs characterizing the inhaled material, such as particle size and size distribution, particle density, aspect ratio, specific radionuclide, the chemical form, and solubility. In addition, biological parameters such as breathing rate, breathing type (nasal or nasal/oral), respiratory system morphometry, tidal volume, functional residual capacity, and anatomical dead space all influence material transport. These aerosol properties and physiological characteristics of the respiratory tract jointly define a range of initial conditions that influence the time-dependent distribution of radioactive material. To evaluate both uncertainty in the initial conditions of inhalation exposure and the final output (committed effective dose) from biokinetic models, a Python-based software tool, Radiological Exposure Dose Calculator (REDCAL), was developed to propagate uncertainty within the human respiratory tract model. Focusing on deposition fraction uncertainty, the primary objective was to characterize the initial activity distribution across respiratory regions as a function of anticipated particle sizes and distributions. The impact of the deposition fraction uncertainty was propagated to committed effective dose coefficients for selected radionuclides in a companion publication. For each particle size, a lognormal distribution, characterized by its geometric mean as defined within ICRP Publication 66, serves as the basis for introducing uncertainty into the physical processes governing deposition in various lung regions. Finally, this study addresses the deposition process and examines how uncertainty in deposition mechanisms affects activity distribution in the airways, ultimately presenting the expected range and standard deviation of deposited activity as a function of particle size.

International Commission on Radiological Protectio↗
DOE OSTI2022

A cautionary tale of decorrelating theory uncertainties

A variety of techniques have been proposed to train machine learning classifiers that are independent of a given feature. While this can be an essential technique for enabling background estimation, it may also be useful for reducing uncertainties. We carefully examine theory uncertainties, which typically do not have a statistical origin. We will provide explicit examples of two-point (fragmentation modeling) and continuous (higher-order corrections) uncertainties where decorrelating significantly reduces the apparent uncertainty while the true uncertainty is much larger. These results suggest that caution should be taken when using decorrelation for these types of uncertainties as long as we do not have a complete decomposition into statistically meaningful components.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Modular hybrid modeling to increase efficiency, explore structural uncertainty, and allow multidimensional complexity scaling in land surface models

Land surface models (LSMs) are indispensable tools for predicting hydrologic extremes, as well as a particularly uncertain component of Earth system models that has stubbornly resisted the convergence in projections over several successive generations of model intercomparisons. This uncertainty in LSMs is poorly quantified and poorly attributed to specific processes, which has hampered efforts to focus research in reducing uncertainty. This has resulted from sparse sampling of the possible uncertainty space—which is high-dimensional and has contributions from parametric, structural, initial, and boundary condition uncertainties—as an artifact of CMIP-type ensembles of opportunity and limitations inherent in observational benchmarks. A new approach is needed to understand and reduce this uncertainty, based around individual LSMs that can represent the breadth of assumptions represented in current CMIP-type efforts, while at the same time exploring that uncertainty in a systematic way, confronting multiple types of observations, and where justified, replacing process representations with ML-driven emulators. We propose an approach of modular hybrid modeling to address these challenges.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Uncertainty Analysis and Software Verification

Uncertainty analyses are an important part of calibrations and testing. They allow researchers insight on how to reduce and mitigate errors in testing. Each device used in testing introduces error in a system, as well as other sources such as environmental conditions, electronics, analog to digital, and random errors. Each source is carefully examined to identify how much error it introduces to a system. These sources are then combined using various methods of uncertainty calculations. To verify and validate software, a manual calculation is required to ensure the software is performing as intended. Using Excel to verify the calculations, we can identify discrepancies within the software. The root of the sum of the squares uncertainty (RSS) is used to find the combined uncertainty of a device at one and two standard deviations of the mean. Calibrations on accelerometers are performed using a vibration system along with a back-toback reference accelerometer. The vibration system takes a reference point at 100Hz frequency at 10g amplitude. The sensitivities are collected at each dialed in frequency. The sensitivity of the device represents the electrical output of the UUT (mV, pC, etc.) per unit of acceleration (g). The full history of sensitivities of selected accelerometers are used to find the averaged, standard deviation, and uncertainty of the device at each frequency tested. The uncertainty calculations from excel and the software are then compared.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Review of Neutron Uncertainty Types

The assessment of neutron data requires understanding the uncertainty. The uncertainty of the final quantities of interest, neutron multiplication and mass, is a combination of many other uncertainties because it is a combination of many other variables. The equations for the values of neutron multiplication and mass are quite complex. The relations between the many contributing variables and their uncertainties are complicated leading to complications in combining them. Additionally, some are statistical in nature, while others are systematic. In an effort to better understand and quantify the total uncertainty in neutron multiplication and SNM mass, they have been subdivided into four categories: setup, detector response, nuclear data, and object characterization. This paper discusses the four categories and what types of uncertainties are in each of them. This effort attempts to generalize this process for any neutron detector, but many of our examples show the Next Generation Multiplicity Detector (MC-15).

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evaluation and Suitability of Using SERI QC Software for Estimating Measurement Uncertainty

SERI QC is a robust solar data quality assessment software tool that has been in continuous use for more than three decades. This report (the first of six in the Data Quality and Uncertainty Integration project) reviews and evaluates the software to determine its suitability for determining the estimated expanded measurement uncertainty of solar measurement data by including operational factors. Using redundancy incorporated in three-component (global, direct, diffuse) solar measurements, SERI QC can quantify the standard uncertainty estimates for estimating uncertainty. With minor modifications, SERI QC will provide an operational uncertainty to be used in conjunction with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory method for instrument uncertainty to provide an integrated estimate of solar measurement data sets. These modifications will capitalize on SERI QC's evaluation of data quality, including data input validation and a variety of built-in solar routines, and will further develop the utility of the software.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

(U) A Code System for Cross-Section Uncertainty Propagation for PARTISN

A rudimentary code system has been developed for propagating neutron cross-section uncertainties to response uncertainties using the PARTISN multigroup discrete-ordinates neutron transport code. The code system uses the first-order sandwich rule with sensitivities computed using SENSMG and covariances computed using NJOY. Databases of reaction cross sections and covariances using ENDF/B-VIII.0 data in the LANL standard 30-group structure have been precalculated. The final uncertainty in a k eff example problem compares well with the result from TOFFEE, a similar code that propagates neutron cross-section uncertainties to response uncertainties using the MCNP6 Monte Carlo neutron transport code. Presently, neither code system propagates uncertainties in $\overline{v}$, $\overline{μ}$, or χ, and neither code system propagates nuclide-nuclide covariances

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Challenges in quantifying unparameterized spatial uncertainties in deep geologic repositories for nuclear waste

Spatially heterogeneous uncertainties are prevalent in geophysical modeling applications, such as probabilistic post-closure performance assessment (PA) of deep geologic repositories for nuclear waste. Such uncertainties are often highly influential to model outputs, so it is desirable to identify the most important mechanisms by which they influence model predictions. However, these uncertainties are often unparameterized in the sense that there is no set of parameters that can be specified to yield a particular realization of the uncertainty. Additionally, the uncertainty is not intrinsically endowed with a parameterization that captures a realization’s mechanistic influence on model outputs. Therefore, in this work we present a novel methodology to develop and assess a set of proxy variables that aim to represent this influence. We show how they can be computed, downselected, and incorporated into the construction of statistical surrogate models mapping model inputs to outputs. We present our methodology in the context of a motivating application problem in deep geologic repository PA and discuss the challenges in capturing the effects of these spatial heterogeneities in uncertainty analyses.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2025

Initial Uncertainty Analysis of Carbon Tetrachloride Contamination and Remediation in the Ringold A and Lower Mud Units at the Central Plateau

The long-term effectiveness of groundwater cleanup at the Hanford Site Central Plateau depends on predictive models that can capture key uncertainties in contaminant fate and transport. Carbon tetrachloride (CCl 4 ), a persistent and toxic compound, presents particular challenges due to variability in degradation rates, uncertainty in initial plume distribution, and subsurface heterogeneity. These uncertainties directly influence plume persistence, migration pathways, and remedy performance, and thus must be systematically evaluated to support long-term remediation planning. To address these gaps, a large-scale Monte Carlo analysis was conducted using the Plateau to River (P2R) model framework. The modeling approach parameterized three primary uncertainty factors: (1) degradation rate, (2) initial plume distribution, and (3) hydraulic conductivity. Degradation was represented as a first-order process, with half-lives ranging from 70 to 700 years. Initial plume distributions were created using a geostatistical simulation method (sgsim), which generates many equally plausible versions of how contaminants might be distributed underground. From this, 100 different scenarios were mapped onto the P2R grid. Variability in hydraulic conductivity was represented in a similar way, with 100 scenarios each for the Ringold Lower Mud and Ringold A units (layers 6 and 7), based on fitted exponential variograms and conditioned to well data. In total, more than 1000 realizations were simulated to assess plume behavior under uncertainty. Results demonstrate that degradation kinetics exert the strongest control over plume persistence: Shorter half-lives produced rapid mass reduction, while longer half-lives yielded persistent plumes with limited attenuation. A nonlinear response was observed, with steep mass reductions at half-lives greater than 200 years and near-linear declines beyond this threshold, reflecting interactions between degradation and pumping. The initial plume distribution strongly influenced early transport patterns, with broader sources generating larger plume footprints, although pump-and-treat operations constrained plume migration to managed areas. By comparison, hydraulic conductivity variability in the Ringold units had only a secondary influence, modifying spreading behavior without altering the dominant migration pathways governed by source configuration and hydraulic controls. Overall, the analysis highlights that uncertainty in degradation rate and initial plume configuration are the primary drivers of variability in plume predictions, while conductivity heterogeneity plays a limited role. These findings underscore the need for improved site-specific data on degradation processes and source characterization to enhance the reliability of long-term performance assessments and to better inform remedial decision-making at the Central Plateau.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation of Uncertainties of Pressure Gain Measurements in Rotating Detonation Combustor

Experimentally measuring the pressure gain of a rotating detonation combustor through the method of equivalent available pressure is prone to many experimental uncertainties. A detailed analysis of sources of random and systematic uncertainties in the thrust and pressure gain is performed using data from a hydrogen/air-operated rotating detonation combustor. The combustor had an axial air inlet and a 50% exit constriction. The measured (negative) pressure gain values agree with the results in the literature for similar inlet-to-exit area ratios. The base drag correction on the centerbody was found to be the greatest source of uncertainty for the thrust. While thrust is the predominant source of random uncertainty in the pressure gain calculation, significant systematic errors can be committed due to the assumed exit Mach number. The impact of this assumption becomes more detrimental the closer to positive the measured pressure gain is. By experimentally evaluating the exit Mach number, the random and systematic uncertainty in pressure gain both decreased, indicating that this should be an essential step. A definitive demonstration of gain is challenging, given the assessed uncertainties, and recommendations are provided to increase the precision of the equivalent available pressure methodology.

Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2025

Impact of Thermonuclear Reaction Rate Uncertainties on the Identification of Presolar Grains from Classical Novae

Approximately 30%–40% of classical novae generate dust between 20 and 100 days following the eruption. However, there has yet to be a definitive identification of presolar stardust grains originating from classical novae. While multiple studies have suggested a nova origin for specific grains, aligning simultaneously all measured isotopic ratios of a specific grain with those predicted from simulations remains challenging. Using Monte Carlo simulations, this work investigates how uncertainties in thermonuclear reaction rates influence the isotopic ratios predicted in simulations of classical novae, specifically impacting the identification of presolar grains. In particular, we address two questions: (i) What is the impact of uncertainties in reaction rates on the range of isotopic ratios predicted by classical nova simulations? (ii) Which reaction rate uncertainties most significantly influence the predicted abundance ratios in presolar grains? Our results show that current reaction rate uncertainties affect the isotopic ratios of 12 C/ 13 C, 14 N/ 15 N, 16 O/ 17 O, 16 O/ 18 O, 24 Mg/ 25 Mg, 24 Mg/ 26 Mg, 26 Al/ 27 Al, and 28 Si/ 29 Si by less than 20% in either carbon–oxygen or oxygen–neon (ONe) novae, especially when considering the mixing of matter throughout the entire envelope. However, the isotopic ratios of 28 Si/ 30 Si, 32 S/ 33 S, and 32 S/ 34 S in ONe novae are exceptions: their variability greatly exceeds a factor of 2 due to the uncertainties in the reaction rates of 30 P(p,γ) 31 S, 33 S(p,γ) 34 Cl, and 34 S(p,γ) 35 Cl, respectively. These results highlight the significant influence of specific reaction rates on the predicted abundance ratios and underscore the necessity for accurate nuclear measurements to reduce these uncertainties.

Classical novae↗
DOE OSTI2025

Elemental and Isotopic Yields from T Coronae Borealis: Predictions and Uncertainties

T Coronae Borealis (T CrB) is a symbiotic recurrent nova system expected to undergo its next outburst within the next 2 yr. Recent hydrodynamic simulations have predicted the nucleosynthetic yields for both carbon–oxygen (CO) and oxygen–neon (ONe) white-dwarf models, but without accounting for thermonuclear reaction rate uncertainties. We perform detailed Monte Carlo postprocessing nucleosynthesis calculations based on updated thermonuclear reaction rates and uncertainties from the 2025 evaluation. We quantify the resulting abundance uncertainties and identify the key nuclear reactions that dominate them. Our results show that both the CO and ONe nova models robustly produce characteristic CNO isotopes. More pronounced abundance differences emerge for elements with A ≥ 20. Sulfur is the most robust observational discriminator between the CO and ONe nova models, with a model-to-model difference of a factor of ≈30 and minimal sensitivity to reaction rate uncertainties. Neon, silicon, and phosphorus exhibit even larger abundance differences (factors of ≈150–250), providing strong diagnostic potential. While their predicted yields are subject to larger uncertainties, these remain smaller than the model-to-model differences, allowing these elements to serve as useful, though less precise, tracers of white-dwarf composition. Chlorine, argon, and potassium also differ between models, but the 1σ-abundance ranges for the CO and ONe models overlap, reducing their present usefulness as composition tracers. We find that only nine nuclear reactions dominate the abundance uncertainties of the most diagnostically important isotopes, and their influence is largely independent of the underlying white-dwarf composition. These results provide guidance for future experimental efforts and for interpreting ejecta compositions in the next eruption of T CrB.

Chemical Abundances↗
DOE OSTI2024

Uncertainty Propagation within Chained Models for Machine Learning Reconstruction of Neutrino-LAr Interactions

Sequential or chained models are increasingly prevalent in machine learning for scientific applications, due to their flexibility and ease of development. Chained models are particularly useful when a task is separable into distinct steps with a hierarchy of meaningful intermediate representations. In reliability-critical tasks, it is important to quantify the confidence of model inferences. However, chained models pose an additional challenge for uncertainty quantification, especially when input uncertainties need to be propagated. In such cases, a fully uncertainty-aware chain of models is required, where each step accepts a probability distribution over the input space, and produces a probability distribution over the output space. In this work, we present a case study for adapting a single model within an existing chain, designed for reconstruction within neutrino-Argon interactions, developed for neutrino oscillation experiments such as MicroBooNE, ICARUS, and the future DUNE experiment. We test the performance of an input uncertainty-enabled model against an uncertainty-blinded model using a method for generating synthetic noise. By comparing these two, we assess the increase in inference quality achieved by exposing models to upstream uncertainty estimates.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

On the Need to Align Intent and Implementation in Uncertainty Quantification for Machine Learning

Quantifying uncertainties for machine learning (ML) models is a foundational challenge in modern data analysis. This challenge is compounded by at least two key aspects of the field: (a) inconsistent terminology surrounding uncertainty and estimation across disciplines, and (b) the varying technical requirements for establishing trustworthy uncertainties in diverse problem contexts. In this position paper, we aim to clarify the depth of these challenges by identifying these inconsistencies and articulating how different contexts impose distinct epistemic demands. We examine the current landscape of estimation targets (e.g., prediction, inference, simulation-based inference), uncertainty constructs (e.g., frequentist, Bayesian, fiducial), and the approaches used to map between them. Drawing on the literature, we highlight and explain examples of problematic mappings. To help address these issues, we advocate for standards that promote alignment between the \textit{intent} and \textit{implementation} of uncertainty quantification (UQ) approaches. We discuss several axes of trustworthiness that are necessary (if not sufficient) for reliable UQ in ML models, and show how these axes can inform the design and evaluation of uncertainty-aware ML systems. Our practical recommendations focus on scientific ML, offering illustrative cases and use scenarios, particularly in the context of simulation-based inference (SBI).

Trivedi, Shubhendu [MIT] (ORCID:0000000312374301)↗
NASA NTRS1987

A detailed description of the uncertainty analysis for High Area Ratio Rocket Nozzle tests at the NASA Lewis Research Center

A preliminary uncertainty analysis has been performed for the High Area Ratio Rocket Nozzle test program which took place at the altitude test capsule of the Rocket Engine Test Facility at the NASA Lewis Research Center. Results from the study establish the uncertainty of measured and calculated parameters required for the calculation of rocket engine specific impulse. A generalized description of the uncertainty methodology used is provided. Specific equations and a detailed description of the analysis are presented. Verification of the uncertainty analysis model was performed by comparison with results from the experimental program's data reduction code. Final results include an uncertainty for specific impulse of 1.30 percent. The largest contributors to this uncertainty were calibration errors from the test capsule pressure and thrust measurement devices.

Kenneth J. Davidian↗
NASA NTRS1987

A detailed description of the uncertainty analysis for high area ratio rocket nozzle tests at the NASA Lewis Research Center

A preliminary uncertainty analysis was performed for the High Area Ratio Rocket Nozzle test program which took place at the altitude test capsule of the Rocket Engine Test Facility at the NASA Lewis Research Center. Results from the study establish the uncertainty of measured and calculated parameters required for the calculation of rocket engine specific impulse. A generalized description of the uncertainty methodology used is provided. Specific equations and a detailed description of the analysis is presented. Verification of the uncertainty analysis model was performed by comparison with results from the experimental program's data reduction code. Final results include an uncertainty for specific impulse of 1.30 percent. The largest contributors to this uncertainty were calibration errors from the test capsule pressure and thrust measurement devices.

Davidian, Kenneth J.↗