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DOE OSTI2021

Controlled Islanding Strategy Considering Uncertainty of Renewable Energy Sources Based on Chance-constrained Model

Controlled islanding plays an essential role in preventing the blackout of power systems. Although there are several studies on this topic in the past, not enough attention is paid to the uncertainty brought by renewable energy sources (RESs) that may cause unpredictable unbalanced power and the observability of power systems after islanding that is essential for back-up black-start measures. Therefore, a novel controlled islanding model based on mixed-integer second-order cone and chance-constrained programming (MISOCCP) is proposed to address these issues. First, the uncertainty of RESs is characterized by their possibility distribution models with chance constraints, and the requirements, e. g., system observ-ability, for rapid back-up black-start measures are also considered. Then, a law of large numbers (LLN) based method is employed for converting the chance constraints into deterministic ones and reformulating the non-convex model into convex one. Finally, case studies on the revised IEEE 39-bus and 118-bus power systems as well as the comparisons among different models are given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model. The results show that the proposed model can result in less unbalanced power and better observability after islanding compared with other models.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

The K2 Galactic Archaeology Program Data Release 3: Age-abundance Patterns in C1–C8 and C10–C18

We present the third and final data release of the K2 Galactic Archaeology Program (K2 GAP) for Campaigns C1–C8 and C10–C18. We provide asteroseismic radius and mass coefficients, κ R and κ M , for ~19,000 red giant stars, which translate directly to radius and mass given a temperature. As such, K2 GAP DR3 represents the largest asteroseismic sample in the literature to date. K2 GAP DR3 stellar parameters are calibrated to be on an absolute parallactic scale based on Gaia DR2, with red giant branch and red clump evolutionary state classifications provided via a machine-learning approach. Combining these stellar parameters with GALAH DR3 spectroscopy, we determine asteroseismic ages with precisions of ~20%–30% and compare age-abundance relations to Galactic chemical evolution models among both low- and high-α populations for α, light, iron-peak, and neutron-capture elements. We confirm recent indications in the literature of both increased Ba production at late Galactic times as well as significant contributions to r-process enrichment from prompt sources associated with, e.g., core-collapse supernovae. With an eye toward other Galactic archeology applications, we characterize K2 GAP DR3 uncertainties and completeness using injection tests, suggesting that K2 GAP DR3 is largely unbiased in mass/age, with uncertainties of 2.9% (stat.) ± 0.1% (syst.) and 6.7% (stat.) ± 0.3% (syst.) in κ R and κ M for red giant branch stars and 4.7% (stat.) ± 0.3% (syst.) and 11% (stat.) ± 0.9% (syst.) for red clump stars. We also identify percent-level asteroseismic systematics, which are likely related to the time baseline of the underlying data, and which therefore should be considered in TESS asteroseismic analysis.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

3D Play Fairway Analysis for Examining of Superhot Reservoir Production Scenarios

The DEEPEN (DE-risking Exploration for geothermal Plays in magmatic ENvironments) project was a multi-laboratory, international effort to reduce uncertainty and improve resource characterization in superhot geothermal systems. Building on this foundation, this work advances open-source tools designed to lower the exploration risk and cost of superhot geothermal projects while promoting transparency, reproducibility, and efficiency in exploration workflows. These tools are being tested at two key sites: (1) the Nesjavellir Geothermal Area in Iceland, where the Icelandic Deep Drilling Project (IDDP) will drill its third well, and (2) Newberry Volcano in Oregon, USA, where Mazama Energy will pilot the first superhot enhanced geothermal system (EGS). A major outcome is the creation of a modular, open-source Python framework for play fairway analysis (PFA) in 2D and 3D, called geoPFA. The PFA workflow has been expanded to produce pseudo conceptual models, and will soon be refined to assess reservoir components through integration with the thermo-hydraulic-mechanical-chemical (THMC) simulator TReactMech, to enable iterative coupling between PFA and THMC models, improving characterization of superhot systems. All three of the Icelandic Deep Drilling Project's production scenarios were analyzed via this framework: (1) a superhot deep injection well paired with conventional production wells at Nesjavellir, (2) a superhot deep production well at Nesjavellir, and (3) superhot enhanced geothermal system at Newberry Volcano. This analysis provides useful insights around conceptual modeling of these production scenarios, helping to inform decisions around which scenario is best suited for which types of environments.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1999

Instrumentation Working Group Summary

The Instrumentation Working Group compiled a summary of measurement techniques applicable to gas turbine engine aerosol precursors and particulates. An assessment was made of the limits, accuracy, applicability, and technology readiness of the various techniques. Despite advances made in emissions characterization of aircraft engines, uncertainties still exist in the mechanisms by which aerosols and particulates are produced in the near-field engine exhaust. To adequately assess current understanding of the formation of sulfuric acid aerosols in the exhaust plumes of gas turbine engines, measurements are required to determine the degree and importance of sulfur oxidation in the turbine and at the engine exit. Ideally, concentrations of all sulfur species would be acquired, with emphasis on SO2 and SO3. Numerous options exist for extractive and non-extractive measurement of SO2 at the engine exit, most of which are well developed. SO2 measurements should be performed first to place an upper bound on the percentage of SO2 oxidation. If extractive and non-extractive techniques indicate that a large amount of the fuel sulfur is not detected as SO2, then efforts are needed to improve techniques for SO3 measurements. Additional work will be required to account for the fuel sulfur in the engine exhaust. Chemical Ionization Mass Spectrometry (CI-MS) measurements need to be pursued, although a careful assessment needs to be made of the sampling line impact on the extracted sample composition. Efforts should also be placed on implementing non-intrusive techniques and extending their capabilities by maximizing exhaust coverage for line-of-sight measurements, as well as development of 2-D techniques, where feasible. Recommendations were made to continue engine exit and combustor measurements of particulates. Particulate measurements should include particle size distribution, mass fraction, hydration properties, and volatile fraction. However, methods to ensure that unaltered samples are obtained need to be developed. Particulate speciation was also assigned a high priority for quantifying the fractions of carbon soot, PAH, refractory materials, metals, sulfates, and nitrates. High priority was also placed on performing a comparison of particle sizing instruments. Concern was expressed by the workshop attendees who routinely make particulate measurements about the variation in number density measured during in-flight tests by different instruments. In some cases, measurements performed by different groups of researchers during the same flight tests showed an order of magnitude variation. Second priority was assigned to measuring concentrations of odd hydrogen and oxidizing species. Since OH, HO2, H2O2, and O are extremely reactive, non-extractive measurements are recommended. A combination of absorption and fluorescence is anticipated to be effective for OH measurements in the combustor and at the engine exit. Extractive measurements of HO2 have been made in the stratosphere, where the ambient level of OH is relatively low. Use of techniques that convert HO2 to OH for combustor and engine exit measurements needs to be evaluated, since the ratio of HO2/OH may be 1% or less at both the combustor and engine exit. CI-MS might be a viable option for H2O2, subject to sampling line conversion issues. However, H2O2 is a low priority oxidizing species in the combustor and at the engine exit. Two candidates for atomic oxygen measurements are Resonance Enhanced Multi-Photon Ionization (REMPI) and Laser-Induced Fluorescence (LIF). Particulate measurement by simultaneous extractive and non-extractive techniques was given equal priority to the oxidizer measurements. Concern was expressed over the ability of typical ground test sampling lines to deliver an unaltered sample to a remotely located instrument. It was suggested that the sampling probe and line losses be checked out by attempting measurements using an optical or non-extractive technique immediately upstream of the sampling probe. This is a possible application for Laser Induced Incandescence (LII) as a check on the volume fraction of soot. Optical measurements of size distribution are not well developed for ultrafine particles less than about 20 nm in diameter, so a non-extractive technique for particulate size distribution cannot be recommended without further development. Carbon dioxide measurements need to be made to complement other extractive measurement techniques. CO2 measurements enable conversion of other species concentrations to emission indices. Carbon monoxide, which acts as a sink for oxidizing species, should be measured using non-extractive techniques. CO can be rapidly converted to CO2 in extractive probes, and a comparison between extractive and non-extractive measurements should be performed. Development of non-extractive techniques would help to assess the degree of CO conversion, and might be needed to improve the concentration measurement accuracy. Measurements of NO(x) will continue to be critical due to the role of NO and NO2 in atmospheric chemistry, and their influence on atmospheric ozone. Time-resolved measurements of temperature, velocity, and species concentrations were included on the list of desired measurement. Thermocouples are typically adequate for engine exit measurements. PIV and LDV are well established for obtaining velocity profiles. The techniques are listed in the accompanying table; are divided into extractive and non-extractive techniques. Efforts were made to include a measurement uncertainty for each technique. An assessment of the technology readiness was included.

Zaller, Michelle↗

NASA NTRS1997

Frozen-Flux Modelling for Epochs 1915 and 1980

The frozen-flux hypothesis for the Earth's liquid core assumes that convective terms dominate diffusive terms in the induction equation governing the behaviour of the magnetic field at the surface of the core. While highly plausible on the basis of estimates of physical parameters, the hypothesis has been questioned. To study this hypothesis, we improve the method which tests the consistency of magnetic observations with the hypothesis by constructing simple, flux-conserving core-field models fitting the data at pairs of epochs. We introduce a new approach that fixes the patch configurations at each of the two epochs before inversion, so that each configuration is consistent with its respective data set but possesses the same patch topology. We expand upon the inversion algorithm, using quadratic programming to maintain the proper flux sign within patches; the modelling calculations are also extended to include data types that depend non-linearly on the model. Every test of a hypothesis depends on the characterization of the observational uncertainties; we undertake a thorough review of this question. For main-field models, the primary source of uncertainty comes from the crustal field. We base our analysis on statistical models of the crustal magnetization, adjusted to bring it into better conformity with our data set. The noise model permits us to take into account the correlations between the measurements and requires that a different weighting be given to horizontal and vertical components. It also indicates that the observations should be fit more closely than has been the practice heretofore. We apply the revised method to Magsat data from 1980 and survey and observatory data from 1915.5, two data sets believed to be particularly difficult to reconcile with the frozen-flux hypothesis. We compute a pair of simple, flux-conserving models that fit the averaged data from each epoch. We therefore conclude that present knowledge of the geomagnetic fields of 1980 and 1915.5 is consistent with the frozen-flux hypothesis.

OBrien, Michael S.↗

NASA NTRS2007

NASA CEV Reference Entry GN&C System and Analysis

As part of its overall objectives, the Orion spacecraft will be required to perform entry and Earth landing functions for Low Earth Orbit (LEO) and Lunar missions. Both of these entry scenarios will begin with separation of the Service Module (SM), making them unique from other Orion mission phases in that only the Command Module (CM) portion of the Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) will be involved, requiring a CM specific Guidance, Navigation and Control (GN&C) system. Also common to these mission scenarios will be the need for GN&C to safely return crew (or cargo) to earth within the dynamic thermal and structural constraints of entry and within acceptable accelerations on the crew, utilizing the limited aerodynamic performance of the CM capsule. The lunar return mission could additionally require an initial atmospheric entry designed to support a precision skip and second entry, all to maximize downrange performance and ensure landing in the United States. This paper describes the Entry GN&C reference design, developed by the NASA-led team, that supports these entry scenarios and that was used to validate the Orion System requirements. Description of the reference design will include an overview of the GN&C functions, avionics, and effectors and will relate these to the specific design drivers of the entry scenarios, as well as the desire for commonality in vehicle systems to support the different missions. The discussion will also include the requirement for an Emergency Entry capability beyond that of the nominal performance of the multi-string GNC system, intended to return the crew to the earth in a survivable but unguided manner. Finally, various analyses will be discussed, including those completed to support validation efforts of the current CEV requirements, along with those on-going and planned with the intention to further refine the requirements and to support design development work in conjunction with the prime contractor. Some of these ongoing analyses will include work to size effectors (jets) and fuel budgets, to refine skip entry concepts, to characterize navigation performance and uncertainties, to provide for SM disposal offshore and to identify requirements to support target site selection.

Munday, S.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Understanding Maneuver Uncertainties during Inclination Maneuvers of the Aqua Spacecraft

During the Fall 2006 inclination campaign for the Aqua spacecraft it was discovered that there was significant uncertainty in the prediction of the semimajor axis change during a maneuver. The low atmospheric drag environment at the time of the maneuvers amplified the effects of this uncertainty leading to a potential violation of the spacecraft ground-track requirements. In order to understand the uncertainty, a Monte Carlo simulation was developed to characterize the expected semi-major axis change uncertainty given the observed behavior of the spacecraft propulsion and attitude control systems during a maneuver. This expected uncertainty was then used to develop new analysis tools to ensure that future inclination maneuver plans will .meet ground-track control requirements in the presence of the error.

McKinley, David P.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Constraint and Flight Rule Management for Space Mission Operations

The exploration of space is one of the most fascinating domains to study from a human factors perspective. Like other complex work domains such as aviation (Pritchett and Kim, 2008), air traffic management (Durso and Manning, 2008), health care (Morrow, North, and Wickens, 2006), homeland security (Cooke and Winner, 2008), and vehicle control (Lee, 2006), space exploration is a large-scale sociotechnical work domain characterized by complexity, dynamism, uncertainty, and risk in real-time operational contexts (Perrow, 1999; Woods et al, 1994). Nearly the entire gamut of human factors issues - for example, human-automation interaction (Sheridan and Parasuraman, 2006), telerobotics, display and control design (Smith, Bennett, and Stone, 2006), usability, anthropometry (Chaffin, 2008), biomechanics (Marras and Radwin, 2006), safety engineering, emergency operations, maintenance human factors, situation awareness (Tenney and Pew, 2006), crew resource management (Salas et al., 2006), methods for cognitive work analysis (Bisantz and Roth, 2008) and the like -- are applicable to astronauts, mission control, operational medicine, Space Shuttle manufacturing and assembly operations, and space suit designers as they are in other work domains (e.g., Bloomberg, 2003; Bos et al, 2006; Brooks and Ince, 1992; Casler and Cook, 1999; Jones, 1994; McCurdy et al, 2006; Neerincx et aI., 2006; Olofinboba and Dorneich, 2005; Patterson, Watts-Perotti and Woods, 1999; Patterson and Woods, 2001; Seagull et ai, 2007; Sierhuis, Clancey and Sims, 2002). The human exploration of space also has unique challenges of particular interest to human factors research and practice. This chapter provides an overview of those issues and reports on some of the latest research results as well as the latest challenges still facing the field.

Barreiro, J.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Human Factors in Space Exploration

The exploration of space is one of the most fascinating domains to study from a human factors perspective. Like other complex work domains such as aviation (Pritchett and Kim, 2008), air traffic management (Durso and Manning, 2008), health care (Morrow, North, and Wickens, 2006), homeland security (Cooke and Winner, 2008), and vehicle control (Lee, 2006), space exploration is a large-scale sociotechnical work domain characterized by complexity, dynamism, uncertainty, and risk in real-time operational contexts (Perrow, 1999; Woods et ai, 1994). Nearly the entire gamut of human factors issues - for example, human-automation interaction (Sheridan and Parasuraman, 2006), telerobotics, display and control design (Smith, Bennett, and Stone, 2006), usability, anthropometry (Chaffin, 2008), biomechanics (Marras and Radwin, 2006), safety engineering, emergency operations, maintenance human factors, situation awareness (Tenney and Pew, 2006), crew resource management (Salas et aI., 2006), methods for cognitive work analysis (Bisantz and Roth, 2008) and the like -- are applicable to astronauts, mission control, operational medicine, Space Shuttle manufacturing and assembly operations, and space suit designers as they are in other work domains (e.g., Bloomberg, 2003; Bos et al, 2006; Brooks and Ince, 1992; Casler and Cook, 1999; Jones, 1994; McCurdy et ai, 2006; Neerincx et aI., 2006; Olofinboba and Dorneich, 2005; Patterson, Watts-Perotti and Woods, 1999; Patterson and Woods, 2001; Seagull et ai, 2007; Sierhuis, Clancey and Sims, 2002). The human exploration of space also has unique challenges of particular interest to human factors research and practice. This chapter provides an overview of those issues and reports on sorne of the latest research results as well as the latest challenges still facing the field.

FROM↗

NASA NTRS2017

Mind the Gap: Exploring the Underground of the NASA Space Cancer Risk Model

The REID quantifies the lifetime risk of death from radiation-induced cancer in an exposed astronaut. The NASA Space Cancer Risk (NSCR) 2012 mode incorporates elements from physics, biology, epidemiology, and statistics to generate the REID distribution. The current model quantifies the space radiation environment, radiation quality, and dose-rate effects to estimate a NASA-weighted dose. This weighted dose is mapped to the excess risk of radiation-induced cancer mortality from acute exposures to gamma rays and then transferred to an astronaut population. Finally, the REID is determined by integrating this risk over the individual's lifetime. The calculated upper 95% confidence limit of the REID is used to restrict an astronaut's permissible mission duration (PMD) for a proposed mission. As a statistical quantity characterized by broad, subjective uncertainties, REID estimates for space missions result in wide distributions. Currently, the upper 95% confidence level is over 350% larger than the mean REID value, which can severely limit an astronaut's PMD. The model incorporates inputs from multiple scientific disciplines in the risk estimation process. Physics and particle transport models calculate how radiation moves through space, penetrates spacecraft, and makes its way to the human beings onboard. Epidemiological studies of exposures from atomic bombings, medical treatments, and power plants are used to quantify health risks from acute and chronic low linear energy transfer (LET) ionizing radiation. Biological studies in cellular and animal models using radiation at various LETs and energies inform quality metrics for ions present in space radiation. Statistical methodologies unite these elements, controlling for mathematical and scientific uncertainty and variability. Despite current progress, these research platforms contain knowledge gaps contributing to the large uncertainties still present in the model. The NASA Space Radiation Program Element (SRPE) defines the knowledge gaps that impact our understanding of the cancer risks. These gaps are outlined in NASA's Human Research Roadmap [4], which identifies the research questions and actions recommended for reducing the uncertainty in the current NSCR model and for formulation of future models. The greatest contributors to uncertainty in the current model include radiation quality, dose rate effects, and the transfer of exposure-based risk from other populations to an astronaut population. Future formulations of the risk model may benefit from including other potential sources of uncertainty such as space dosimetry, errors in human epidemiology data, and the impact of microgravity and other spaceflight stressors. Here, we discuss the current capabilities of the NSCR-2012 model and several immediate research needs, highlighting areas expected to have an operational impact on the current model schema. The following subway-style route map outlines the NSCR-2012 model (Green Line), emphasizing the research gaps in the Human Research Roadmap for risk of radiation-induced carcinogenesis (Stops on Dashed Lines). The map diagrams how these research gaps feed specific portions of the model.

Chappell, L. J.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Tools Assessing Performance

For the distributed wind industry, it can be challenging to accurately predict the performance and annual energy production of projects prior to their installation. The U.S. Department of Energy’s Tools Assessing Performance (TAP) project aims to improve wind resource characterization, thereby reducing the uncertainty of project performance and financing costs, increasing consumer confidence, and lowering the levelized cost of distributed wind energy. A collaborative effort among DOE National Laboratories, TAP will create a computational framework that provides the distributed wind community with access to newly developed wind resource data and modeling capabilities. These capabilities will allow users to perform timely and accurate performance assessments for distributed wind projects at locations across the United States.

wind, distributed, tools, performance↗

DOE OSTI2022

On the characterization of biases arising from methods and approximations used for sensitivity analyses

The preliminary assessment of the performance and safety of advanced reactors, as well as the identification of research and development needs, rely on computer simulations due to the lack of operational experience. Those simulations should be based on verified and validated computational tools, calculation schemes, and nuclear data libraries, and should be accompanied of a proper characterization of the involved uncertainties, providing confidence in the computational-based predictions. Thus, sensitivity and uncertainty studies, together with integral experiments, play an essential role in that process. Sensitivities are then a critical element and guidelines about how to produce accurate enough sensitivities depending on the subsequent analyses to be performed are of interest. The present study addresses the sensitivities biases arising from the use of different nuclear data libraries, computational methods and the assumption of modelling simplifications. Not only sensitivities for multiplication factor but also for safety-relevant reactivity responses have been analyzed. In the study, propagated uncertainties are also included for the considered parameters to illustrate the impact of the sensitivity profiles obtained for each case on the final uncertainty. Then, relevant recommendations are given for sensitivity analyses of highly complex systems. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2026

3D Play Fairway Analysis for Examining of Superhot Drilling Production Scenarios: Preprint

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS2013

Remaining Useful Life Estimation in Prognosis: An Uncertainty Propagation Problem

The estimation of remaining useful life is significant in the context of prognostics and health monitoring, and the prediction of remaining useful life is essential for online operations and decision-making. However, it is challenging to accurately predict the remaining useful life in practical aerospace applications due to the presence of various uncertainties that affect prognostic calculations, and in turn, render the remaining useful life prediction uncertain. It is challenging to identify and characterize the various sources of uncertainty in prognosis, understand how each of these sources of uncertainty affect the uncertainty in the remaining useful life prediction, and thereby compute the overall uncertainty in the remaining useful life prediction. In order to achieve these goals, this paper proposes that the task of estimating the remaining useful life must be approached as an uncertainty propagation problem. In this context, uncertainty propagation methods which are available in the literature are reviewed, and their applicability to prognostics and health monitoring are discussed.

Uncertainty Quantification↗

DOE OSTI2020

Uncertainty Quantification in Scientific ML

The intricate interactions between data sampling, model selection and the inherent randomness in complex systems strongly emphasize the need for a rigorous characterization of ML algorithms. In conventional statistics, uncertainty quantification (UQ) provides this characterization by measuring how accurately a model reflects the physical reality and by studying the impact of different error sources on the prediction.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Multi-Fidelity Active Subspaces for Wind Farm Uncertainty Quantification

Wind plants operate in stochastic environments characterized by complex turbulent flow dynamics and high-dimensional random variables. A key step in uncertainty quantification studies is sensitivity analysis and dimension reduction that can facilitate the development of surrogate models to be used for forward and inverse propagation or optimization under uncertainty. Prior work has shown active subspaces are an effective tool for identifying important directions in the space of stochastic inputs; however, they have only been applied to single-fidelity wind plant models. In this study, we investigate the efficacy of a multi-fidelity active subspace method for analyzing the uncertainty in wind plant power output. The multi-fidelity active subspace estimator offers the promise of increased accuracy in identifying active subspaces as compared to a single-fidelity estimator for the same computational cost, or a reduction in cost for the same accuracy. This makes the study of uncertainty in larger wind plants and with higher fidelity physics tractable. The multi-fidelity active subspace method is applied to gridded and existing wind plant layouts with single and multiple inflow conditions and its performance for surrogate modeling and uncertainty propagation is compared against a single-fidelity active subspace method. This multi-fidelity approach yields substantial computational speedups of 2x - 3.4x across the test cases along with acceptable accuracy in surrogate modeling and computing statistical moments.

active subspace↗

DOE OSTI2020

Transporting Non-Compliant TRU Wastes in the OPTIMUS{sup TM} Packages - 20493

The OPTIMUS{sup TM} product line of packages was developed with the purpose of providing a versatile and modular packaging option for shipping problematic wastes and fissile material contents. The product line includes a high-activity design in the OPTIMUS-H and a low activity design in the OPTIMUS-L. The two variants utilize a singular containment vessel design, that is enclosed in different protective components that offer different levels of shielding along with thermal and impact protection. The thick shielding provided by the OPTIMUS-H packaging allows for higher activity contents than the OPTIMUS-L to be transported. But the lightweight design of the OPTIMUS-L packaging allows for more packages to be transported in a single shipment. The containment vessel design shared between the two packages provides leak-tight containment of all radioactive contents along with the capabilities to easily leak test and the option to inert and backfill the contents, as necessary, prior to each shipment of the package. Together the OPTIMUS package designs offer significant flexibility and are capable of handling a wide variety of waste materials and other radioactive contents. One of the primary contents covered in the initial design effort for these packages is TRU waste contents beyond the standard waste materials that are compliant with the WIPP Waste Acceptance Criteria. More specifically, the initial content of interest is TRU Waste drums containing sealed containers with potentially flammable gases. While there are multiple other packaging options available for transporting standard WIPP compliant TRU wastes, the goal of the OPTIMUS packages is to offer a superior option for transporting both standard TRU wastes as well as the more problematic non-compliant wastes, among other contents. The non-compliant TRU waste contents explicitly included for the OPTIMUS packages are standard aerosol cans and DOT 3E lecture bottles. However, the methods applied for the package containment can be easily adjusted to cover other sealed container types with potentially flammable gases. The primary challenges with including these items are both the obvious issue of potential for flammable gases (e.g. aerosol propellants) in the package, but also the uncertainty in the exact state of the contents. Because these desired contents are waste materials, the characterization of the materials present in the waste may include some uncertainties. For example, though it may be known that there are one or more aerosol cans in a TRU waste drum, it may not be known if this can is full, spent, or anywhere in between. Also there may be equal uncertainty in the contents of the aerosol can, specifically in the potentially flammable propellant remaining in the can. To include these types of non-compliant items as acceptable contents for the package, the methods utilized in the safety analyses of the OPTIMUS packages must consider all of the uncertainties in the characterization of the waste. The methods utilized cover a range of concerns with transporting contents of this nature including pressure buildup, gas generation, and gaseous combustion for demonstrating the containment of the package. The ability to transport these problematic contents in the OPTIMUS packages gives TRU waste generating sites the option to relocate these drums to an offsite location where the non-compliant items can be properly managed through removal or destruction. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2021

Measuring cosmological distances using cluster edges as a standard ruler

ABSTRACT The line-of-sight velocity dispersion profile of galaxy clusters exhibits a ‘kink’ corresponding to the spatial extent of orbiting galaxies. Because the spatial extent of a cluster is correlated with the amplitude of the velocity dispersion profile, we can utilize this feature as a gravity-calibrated standard ruler. Specifically, the amplitude of the velocity dispersion data allows us to infer the physical cluster size. Consequently, observations of the angular scale of the ‘kink’ in the profile can be translated into a distance measurement to the cluster. Assuming the relation between cluster radius and cluster velocity dispersion can be calibrated from simulations, we forecast that with existing data from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey we will be able to measure the Hubble constant with 3.0 per cent precision. Implementing our method with data from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) will result in a 1.3 per cent measurement of the Hubble constant. Adding cosmological supernova data improves the uncertainty of the DESI measurement to 0.7 per cent. While these error estimates are statistical only, they provide strong motivation for pursuing the necessary simulation program required to characterize and calibrate the systematic uncertainties impacting our proposed measurement. Whether or not our proposed measurement can in fact result in competitive H0 constraints will depend on what the eventual systematics floor for this method is.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗