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At least 325 records · Page 18

Probabilistic structural analysis of aerospace components using NESSUS

Probabilistic structural analysis of a Space Shuttle main engine turbopump blade is conducted using the computer code NESSUS (numerical evaluation of stochastic structures under stress). The goal of the analysis is to derive probabilistic characteristics of blade response given probabilistic descriptions of uncertainties in blade geometry, material properties, and temperature and pressure distributions. Probability densities are derived for critical blade responses. Risk assessment and failure life analysis is conducted assuming different failure models.

Shiao, Michael C.↗

Using probabilistic analysis to assess the reliability of predicted SRB aft-skirt stresses

Probabilistic failure analysis is a tool to predict the reliability of a part or system. Probabalistic techniques were used to predict critical stresses which occur in the solid rocket booster aft-skirt during main engine buildup, immediately prior to lift-off. More than any other hold down post (HDP) load component, the Z loads are sensitive to variations in strains and calibration constants. Also, predicted aft-skirt stresses are strongly affected by HDP load variations. Therefore, the instrumented HDP are not effective load transducers for Z loads, and, when used with aft skirt stress indicator equations, yield estimates with large uncertainty. Monte Carlo simulation proved to be a straight forward way of studying the overlapping effects of multiple parameters on predicted equipment performance. An advantage of probabilistic analysis is the degree of uncertainty of each parameter as stated explicitly by its probability distribution. It was noted, however, that the choice of parameter distribution had a large effect on the simulation results. Many times these distributions must be assumed. The engineer who is designing the part should be responsible for the choice of parameter distribution.

Richardson, James A.↗

A Probabilistic Approach to Aeropropulsion System Assessment

A probabilistic approach is described for aeropropulsion system assessment. To demonstrate this approach, the technical performance of a wave rotor-enhanced gas turbine engine (i.e. engine net thrust, specific fuel consumption, and engine weight) is assessed. The assessment accounts for the uncertainties in component efficiencies/flows and mechanical design variables, using probability distributions. The results are presented in the form of cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) and sensitivity analyses, and are compared with those from the traditional deterministic approach. The comparison shows that the probabilistic approach provides a more realistic and systematic way to assess an aeropropulsion system.

Tong, Michael T.↗

A Probabilistic Approach to Aeropropulsion System Assessment

A probabilistic approach is described for aeropropulsion system assessment. To demonstrate this approach, the technical performance of a wave rotor-enhanced gas turbine engine (i.e. engine net thrust, specific fuel consumption, and engine weight) is assessed. The assessment accounts for the uncertainties in component efficiencies/flows and mechanical design variables, using probability distributions. The results are presented in the form of cumulative distribution functions (CDFS) and sensitivity analyses, and are compared with those from the traditional deterministic approach. The comparison shows that the probabilistic approach provides a more realistic and systematic way to assess an aeropropulsion system.

Tong, Michael T.↗

A Probabilistic Approach to Aeropropulsion System Assessment

A probabilistic approach is described for aeropropulsion system assessment. To demonstrate this approach, the technical performance of a wave rotor-enhanced gas turbine engine (i.e. engine net thrust, specific fuel consumption, and engine weight) is assessed. The assessment accounts for the uncertainties in component efficiencies/flows and mechanical design variables, using probability distributions. The results are presented in the form of cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) and sensitivity analyses, and are compared with those from the traditional deterministic approach. The comparison shows that the probabilistic approach provides a more realistic and systematic way to assess an aeropropulsion system.

Tong, Michael T.↗

Accounting for Uncertainties in Strengths of SiC MEMS Parts

A methodology has been devised for accounting for uncertainties in the strengths of silicon carbide structural components of microelectromechanical systems (MEMS). The methodology enables prediction of the probabilistic strengths of complexly shaped MEMS parts using data from tests of simple specimens. This methodology is intended to serve as a part of a rational basis for designing SiC MEMS, supplementing methodologies that have been borrowed from the art of designing macroscopic brittle material structures. The need for this or a similar methodology arises as a consequence of the fundamental nature of MEMS and the brittle silicon-based materials of which they are typically fabricated. When tested to fracture, MEMS and structural components thereof show wide part-to-part scatter in strength. The methodology involves the use of the Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures Life (CARES/Life) software in conjunction with the ANSYS Probabilistic Design System (PDS) software to simulate or predict the strength responses of brittle material components while simultaneously accounting for the effects of variability of geometrical features on the strength responses. As such, the methodology involves the use of an extended version of the ANSYS/CARES/PDS software system described in Probabilistic Prediction of Lifetimes of Ceramic Parts (LEW-17682-1/4-1), Software Tech Briefs supplement to NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 30, No. 9 (September 2006), page 10. The ANSYS PDS software enables the ANSYS finite-element-analysis program to account for uncertainty in the design-and analysis process. The ANSYS PDS software accounts for uncertainty in material properties, dimensions, and loading by assigning probabilistic distributions to user-specified model parameters and performing simulations using various sampling techniques.

Nemeth, Noel↗

Ultraviolet Spectroscopy of Asteroid(4) Vesta

We report a comprehensive review of the UV-visible spectrum and rotational lightcurve of Vesta combining new observations by Hubble Space Telescope and Swift with archival International Ultraviolet Explorer observations. The geometric albedos of Vesta from 220 nm to 953 nm arc derived by carefully comparing these observations from various instruments at different times and observing geometries. Vesta has a rotationally averaged geometric albedo of 0.09 at 250 nm, 0.14 at 300 nm, 0.26 at 373 nm, 0.38 at 673 nm, and 0.30 at 950 nm. The linear spectral slope in the ultraviolet displays a sharp minimum ncar sub-Earth longitude of 20deg, and maximum in the eastern hemisphere. This is completely consistent with the distribution of the spectral slope in the visible wavelength. The uncertainty of the measurement in the ultraviolet is approx.20%, and in the visible wavelengths better than 10%. The amplitude of Vesta's rotational lightcurves is approx.10% throughout the range of wavelengths we observed, but is smaller at 950 nm (approx.6%) ncar the 1-micron mafic band center. Contrary to earlier reports, we found no evidence for any difference between the phasing of the ultraviolet and visible/ncar-infrared lightcurves with respect to sub-Earth longitude. Vesta's average spectrum between 220 and 950 nm can well be described by measured reflectance spectra of fine particle howardite-like materials of basaltic achondrite meteorites. Combining this with the in-phase behavior of the ultraviolet, visible. and ncar-infrared lightcurves, and the spectral slopes with respect to the rotational phase, we conclude that there is no global ultraviolet/visible reversal on Vesta. Consequently, this implies lack of global space weathering on Vesta. Keyword,: Asteroid Vesta; Spectrophotometry; Spectroscopy; Ultraviolet observations; Hubble Space Telescope observations

Li, Jian-Yang↗

Redundancy: How Many Unreliable Spares are Needed for High Reliability and Confidence on a Time Limited Mission?

This paper investigates the number of redundant units needed to achieve high reliability with high confidence. The approach applies to the case where the unit failure rate is too high for a single unit to provide the required reliability over the mission duration. To achieve high reliability, the design then uses N redundant units, one operating unit and N – 1 spares. If the unit failure rate is f, the mission length is L, and f * L is small (not the case assumed here), the unit failure probability over the mission duration is F1 = f * L << 1. In this case, the probability that all N units will fail is FN = F1N, and the needed N = LN(FN)/LN(F1). For the case of large f * L assumed here, F1 = f * L > 1, and F1 is the expected number of failures during the mission. The needed redundancy, N, to achieve the specified N unit reliability, FN, can be computed using the cumulative Poisson distribution with mean equal to F1. The number of spares, N - 1, is increased until the probability - that the total number of failures will be less than N -1 - achieves the required reliability. The confidence that this reliability can be achieved can be computed using the cumulative Poisson distribution or the chi-square distribution. Since the measured unit failure rate, f, has some uncertainty, the confidence that the rate is not lower than the actual failure rate and the required reliability is not overestimated is about 50%. Adding more redundant units increases the confidence that the required reliability, FN, will be achieved. For a fixed number of redundant units, the expected reliability and confidence can be traded off, since lower reliability goals have higher confidence in being achieved. Both the required reliability and confidence can be specified initially and the needed number of redundant units computed using the measured failure rate. The unit failure rate is determined by initial reliability growth testing to remove design errors and to better estimate the final constant failure rate. Reducing the failure rate and reducing its variance both reduce the number of redundant units needed for the required reliability and confidence. Since the total cost is the sum of the costs of the units and of the testing, there is an optimum test time that produces minimum cost.

Harry W. Jones↗

The Thermal Infrared Optical Depth of Mineral Dust Retrieved from Integrated CALIOP and IIR Observations

Recent studies reveal that a higher fraction of coarse mineral dust particles than that estimated by climate model simulations has been observed in the atmosphere, leading to a more significant positive (i.e., warming) longwave (LW) thermal infrared (TIR) direct radiative effect (DRE). However, the magnitude of this DRE remains highly uncertain because our understanding of the radiative properties, quantitatively represented by the optical depth of dust, especially information on the TIR, remains limited. This study presents a simple approach to retrieve the thermal infrared dust aerosol optical depth (DAODTIR) over oceans during nighttime using the observations from the Infrared Imaging Radiometer (IIR) and the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) onboard CALIPSO. For each cloud-free dust-laden profile identified by the IIR-CALIOP observation, a Lookup-Table (LUT) of the 10.6 μm IIR band brightness temperatures difference (dBT) under different DAODTIR with respect to their dust-free BTs is constructed based on the CALIOP retrieved dust vertical profile and pre-assumed dust scattering properties using a fast radiative transfer model. Then the DAODTIR is retrieved by projecting the IIR-observed dBT on the LUT. Sensitivity studies show that the DAODTIR retrieval at 10.6 μm is more susceptible to the dust particle size distribution (PSD) assumption than dust refractive indices. To estimate the uncertainty caused by PSD assumption, two DAODTIR retrieval products, one based on the dust PSD from the AERONET at Cape Verde and the other on an in situ measured PSD from the recent Fennec campaign, are provided. The retrieval uncertainty is mainly contributed by the BT difference between the observation and simulation using auxiliary atmospheric data. The climatology of the retrieval from 2013 to 2019 shows confident spatiotemporal variations of DAODTIR with the global-averaged value of 0.006 and 0.008 based on different pre-assumed dust PSDs. Climatological results agree reasonably well with two independent DAODTIR retrieval products based on the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) over the active dust transport regions, such as North and Tropical Atlantic (r = 0.904 and 0.819) and Indian Ocean (r = 0.832). The seasonal and interannual variation is also well-compared (r = 0.758) with AERONET coarse-mode AOD at 97 selected sites. The synergic CALIOP observation allows the retrieved DAODTIR to directly compare with the extrapolated DAODTIR from DAOD in visible (i.e., 532 nm), which helps evaluate the observational constraints on DAODTIR. This study offers a unique prospect of collocating active lidar and passive IR observations for retrieving dust DAODTIR.

aerosol↗

Reducing Aerosol Forcing Uncertainty by Combining Models With Satellite and Within-The-Atmosphere Observations: A Three-Way Street

Aerosol forcing uncertainty represents the largest climate forcing uncertainty overall. Its magnitude has remained virtually undiminished over the past 20 years despite considerable advances in understanding most of the key contributing elements. Recent work has produced modest increases only in the confidence of the uncertainty estimate itself. This review summarizes the contributions toward reducing the uncertainty in the aerosol forcing of climate made by satellite observations, measurements taken within the atmosphere, as well as modeling and data assimilation. We adopt a more measurement-oriented perspective than most reviews of the subject in assessing the strengths and limitations of each; gaps and possible ways to fill them are considered. Currently planned programs supporting advanced, global-scale satellite and surface-based aerosol, cloud, and precursor gas observations, climate modeling, and intensive field campaigns aimed at characterizing the underlying physical and chemical processes involved, are all essential. But in addition, new efforts are needed: (a) to obtain systematic aircraft in situ measurements capturing the multi-variate probability distribution functions of particle optical, microphysical, and chemical properties (and associated uncertainty estimates), as well as co-variability with meteorology, for the major aerosol airmass types; (b) to conceive, develop, and implement a suborbital (aircraft plus surface-based) program aimed at systematically quantifying the cloud-scale microphysics, cloud optical properties, and cloud-related vertical velocities associated with aerosol-cloud interactions; and (c) to focus much more research on integrating the unique contributions of satellite observations, suborbital measurements, and modeling, to reduce the persistent uncertainty in aerosol climate forcing.

aerosol climate forcing↗

Stochastic Analysis of Orbital Lifetimes of Spacecraft

A document discusses (1) a Monte-Carlo-based methodology for probabilistic prediction and analysis of orbital lifetimes of spacecraft and (2) Orbital Lifetime Monte Carlo (OLMC)--a Fortran computer program, consisting of a previously developed long-term orbit-propagator integrated with a Monte Carlo engine. OLMC enables modeling of variances of key physical parameters that affect orbital lifetimes through the use of probability distributions. These parameters include altitude, speed, and flight-path angle at insertion into orbit; solar flux; and launch delays. The products of OLMC are predicted lifetimes (durations above specified minimum altitudes) for the number of user-specified cases. Histograms generated from such predictions can be used to determine the probabilities that spacecraft will satisfy lifetime requirements. The document discusses uncertainties that affect modeling of orbital lifetimes. Issues of repeatability, smoothness of distributions, and code run time are considered for the purpose of establishing values of code-specific parameters and number of Monte Carlo runs. Results from test cases are interpreted as demonstrating that solar-flux predictions are primary sources of variations in predicted lifetimes. Therefore, it is concluded, multiple sets of predictions should be utilized to fully characterize the lifetime range of a spacecraft.

Sasamoto, Washito↗

Atmospheric Sulfur Hexafluoride: Sources, Sinks and Greenhouse Warming

Model calculations using estimated reaction rates of sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) with OH and 0('D) indicate that the atmospheric lifetime due to these processes may be very long (25,000 years). An upper limit for the UV cross section would suggest a photolysis lifetime much longer than 1000 years. The possibility of other removal mechanisms are discussed. The estimated lifetimes are consistent with other estimated values based on recent laboratory measurements. There appears to be no known natural source of SF6. An estimate of the current production rate of SF6 is about 5 kt/yr. Based on historical emission rates, we calculated a present-day atmospheric concentrations for SF6 of about 2.5 parts per trillion by volume (pptv) and compared the results with available atmospheric measurements. It is difficult to estimate the atmospheric lifetime of SF6 based on mass balance of the emission rate and observed abundance. There are large uncertainties concerning what portion of the SF6 is released to the atmosphere. Even if the emission rate were precisely known, it would be difficult to distinguish among lifetimes longer than 100 years since the current abundance of SF6 is due to emission in the past three decades. More information on the measured trends over the past decade and observed vertical and latitudinal distributions of SF6 in the lower stratosphere will help to narrow the uncertainty in the lifetime. Based on laboratory-measured IR absorption cross section for SF6, we showed that SF6 is about 3 times more effective as a greenhouse gas compared to CFC 11 on a per molecule basis. However, its effect on atmospheric warming will be minimal because of its very small concentration. We estimated the future concentration of SF6 at 2010 to be 8 and 10 pptv based on two projected emission scenarios. The corresponding equilibrium warming of 0.0035 C and 0.0043 C is to be compared with the estimated warming due to CO2 increase of about 0.8 C in the same period.

Sze, Nien Dak↗

Volcanic Signatures in Estimates of Stratospheric Aerosol Size, Distribution Width, Surface Area, and Volume Deduced from Global Satellite-Based Observations

Volcanic signatures in the stratospheric aerosol layer are revealed by two independent techniques which retrieve aerosol information from global satellite-based observations of particulate extinction. Both techniques combine the 4-wavelength Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) II extinction measurements (0.385 <= lambda <= 1.02 microns) with the 7.96 micron and 12.82 micron extinction measurements from the Cryogenic Limb Array Etalon Spectrometer (CLAES) instrument. The algorithms use the SAGE II/CLAES composite extinction spectra in month-latitude-altitude bins to retrieve values and uncertainties of particle effective radius R(sub eff), surface area S, volume V and size distribution width sigma(sub R). The first technique is a multi-wavelength Look-Up-Table (LUT) algorithm which retrieves values and uncertainties of R(sub eff) by comparing ratios of extinctions from SAGE II and CLAES (e.g., E(sub lambda)/E(sub 1.02) to pre-computed extinction ratios which are based on a range of unimodal lognormal size distributions. The pre-computed ratios are presented as a function of R(sub eff) for a given sigma(sub g); thus the comparisons establish the range of R(sub eff) consistent with the measured spectra for that sigma(sub g). The fact that no solutions are found for certain sigma(sub g) values provides information on the acceptable range of sigma(sub g), which is found to evolve in response to volcanic injections and removal periods. Analogous comparisons using absolute extinction spectra and error bars establish the range of S and V. The second technique is a Parameter Search Technique (PST) which estimates R(sub eff) and sigma(sub g) within a month-latitude-altitude bin by minimizing the chi-squared values obtained by comparing the SAGE II/CLAES extinction spectra and error bars with spectra calculated by varying the lognormal fitting parameters: R(sub eff), sigma(sub g), and the total number of particles N(sub 0). For both techniques, possible biases in retrieved-parameters caused by assuming a unimodal functional form are removed using correction factors computed from representative in situ measurements of bimodal size distributions. Some interesting features revealed by the LUT and PST retrievals include: (1) Increases in S and V (but not R(sub eff)) after the Ruiz and Kelut injections, (2) Increases in S, V, R(sub eff) after Pinatubo, (3) Post-Pinatubo increases in S, V, and R(sub eff) that are more rapid in the tropics than elsewhere, (4) Mid-latitude post-Pinatubo increases in R(sub eff) that lag increases in S and V, (5) S and V returning to pre-Pinatubo values sooner than R(sub eff) does, (6) Sharp increases in sigma(sub g), after Pinatubo and slight increases in sigma(sub g) after Ruiz, Etna, Kelut, Spurr and Rabaul, and (7) Gradual declines in the heights at which R(sub eff), S and V peak after Pinatubo.

Bauman, J. J.↗

CA Risk Assessment Approaches

Current single-Pc approach work well when subtended by appropriate hypothesis-testing framework. Reframing construct in terms of miss distance distribution would confer certain advantages such as reducing to same import as Pc, but still convey some additional information. Methods to incorporate known uncertainties in covariances and HBR should be pursued that can also be framed in terms of miss distance distribution. We present Plausibilistic II and Possibilistic constructs, to determine their adequacy and viable recommendation.

Conjunction↗

Distribution of Aboveground Live Biomass in the Amazon Basin

The amount and spatial distribution of forest biomass in the Amazon basin is a major source of uncertainty in estimating the flux of carbon released from land-cover and land-use change. Direct measurements of aboveground live biomass (AGLB) are limited to small areas of forest inventory plots and site-specific allometric equations that cannot be readily generalized for the entire basin. Furthermore, there is no spaceborne remote sensing instrument that can measure tropical forest biomass directly. To determine the spatial distribution of forest biomass of the Amazon basin, we report a method based on remote sensing metrics representing various forest structural parameters and environmental variables, and more than 500 plot measurements of forest biomass distributed over the basin. A decision tree approach was used to develop the spatial distribution of AGLB for seven distinct biomass classes of lowland old-growth forests with more than 80% accuracy. AGLB for other vegetation types, such as the woody and herbaceous savanna and secondary forests, was directly estimated with a regression based on satellite data. Results show that AGLB is highest in Central Amazonia and in regions to the east and north, including the Guyanas. Biomass is generally above 300Mgha(sup 1) here except in areas of intense logging or open floodplains. In Western Amazonia, from the lowlands of Peru, Ecuador, and Colombia to the Andean mountains, biomass ranges from 150 to 300Mgha(sup 1). Most transitional and seasonal forests at the southern and northwestern edges of the basin have biomass ranging from 100 to 200Mgha(sup 1). The AGLB distribution has a significant correlation with the length of the dry season. We estimate that the total carbon in forest biomass of the Amazon basin, including the dead and below ground biomass, is 86 PgC with +/- 20% uncertainty.

rainforest↗

Effects of Natural Variability on the Use of Standard Deviation to Represent Measurement Uncertainties in Atmospheric Composition Studies

Measurement uncertainty is defined as a “non-negative parameter characterizing the dispersion of the quantity values being attributed to a measurand”. It is most common that the uncertainties of GAW hourly measurements, such as greenhouse gas measurements, are reported as standard deviations derived from individual sampling at a higher time resolution (e.g., 1 min). In contrast, the uncertainties of GAW measurements of reactive gases and aerosol properties are reported in percentiles covering the same probability. A quick look at hourly CO 2 data from Cape Grim, Australia yielded some interesting findings: the hourly standard deviation is, on average, more than a factor of 10 higher for the measurements under non-background conditions (over 50% observations), while the difference in average CO 2 amount fraction was less than 2 ppm. The dramatic contrast cannot be explained by the difference in measurement uncertainties, but can largely be attributed the natural variability, or episodic ambient CO 2 variation reflecting changes in meteorological conditions or emissions. These initial findings motivated a more in-depth analysis of the ground-based measurements of trace gases and aerosol properties. This analysis will be using continuous 1 min ground site observations to construct time averaged statistical indicators to evaluate whether the standard deviation is adequate to represent the dispersion, especially under marked influence by natural variability. The suitability of this representation can be determined by examining the difference between the standard deviation and percentiles encompassing the same probability. We will examine time intervals of 1 hour, 3 hours, and 24 hours, with the latter time intervals chosen to match those commonly used in model assessments. We will also investigate how natural variability can alter the probability distribution of the measurands and how adequate the quadrature propagation of uncertainties is under these conditions. The results will include several trace gases (e.g., CO 2 , CO, O 3 , and NO 2 ) with a range of measurement techniques (e.g., PANDORA, in situ), atmospheric lifetimes, and aerosol properties (e.g. scattering coefficient). The findings from this analysis should provide some useful feedback on the best practices for uncertainty reporting.

Measurement Uncertainty↗

Probabilistic analysis of bladed turbine disks and the effect of mistuning

Probabilistic assessment of the maximum blade response on a mistuned rotor disk is performed using the computer code NESSUS. The uncertainties in natural frequency, excitation frequency, amplitude of excitation and damping have been included to obtain the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of blade responses. Advanced mean value first order analysis is used to compute CDF. The sensitivities of different random variables are identified. Effect of the number of blades on a rotor on mistuning is evaluated. It is shown that the uncertainties associated with the forcing function parameters have significant effect on the response distribution of the bladed rotor.

Shah, Ashwin↗

Reducing Multisensor Satellite Monthly Mean Aerosol Optical Depth Uncertainty: 1. Objective Assessment of Current AERONET Locations

Various space-based sensors have been designed and corresponding algorithms developed to retrieve aerosol optical depth (AOD), the very basic aerosol optical property, yet considerable disagreement still exists across these different satellite data sets. Surface-based observations aim to provide ground truth for validating satellite data; hence, their deployment locations should preferably contain as much spatial information as possible, i.e., high spatial representativeness. Using a novel Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF)- based approach, we objectively evaluate the spatial representativeness of current Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) sites. Multisensor monthly mean AOD data sets from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, Multiangle Imaging Spectroradiometer, Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor, Ozone Monitoring Instrument, and Polarization and Anisotropy of Reflectances for Atmospheric Sciences coupled with Observations from a Lidar are combined into a 605-member ensemble, and AERONET data are considered as the observations to be assimilated into this ensemble using the EnKF. The assessment is made by comparing the analysis error variance (that has been constrained by ground-based measurements), with the background error variance (based on satellite data alone). Results show that the total uncertainty is reduced by approximately 27% on average and could reach above 50% over certain places. The uncertainty reduction pattern also has distinct seasonal patterns, corresponding to the spatial distribution of seasonally varying aerosol types, such as dust in the spring for Northern Hemisphere and biomass burning in the fall for Southern Hemisphere. Dust and biomass burning sites have the highest spatial representativeness, rural and oceanic sites can also represent moderate spatial information, whereas the representativeness of urban sites is relatively localized. A spatial score ranging from 1 to 3 is assigned to each AERONET site based on the uncertainty reduction, indicating its representativeness level.

aerosol optical depth↗