Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “uncertainty in complex systems”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 325 records · Page 18
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Energy sector portfolio analysis with uncertainty

Governments are dealing with the challenge of how to efficiently invest in research and development portfolios related to energy technologies. Research and development investment decisions in the energy space are especially difficult due to numerous risks and uncertainties, and due to the complexity of energy's interactions with the broad economy. Historically, much of the U.S. Department of Energy's in-depth research and development analyses focused on assessing the impact of a research and development activity in isolation from other available opportunities and did not substantially consider risk and uncertainty. Endeavoring to combine integrated energy-economy modeling with uncertainty analysis and technology-specific research and development activities, the U.S. Department of Energy commissioned the development of the Stochastic Energy Deployment System to support and improve public energy research and development decision-making. The Stochastic Energy Deployment System draws from expert-elicited probability distributions for research and development-driven improvements in technology cost and performance, and it uses Monte Carlo simulations to evaluate the likelihood of outcomes within a system dynamics energy-economy model. The framework estimates the uncertain benefits and costs of various research and development portfolios and provides insight into the probability of meeting national technology goals, while accounting for interactions with the larger economy and for interactions among research and development investments spanning many energy sectors.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Predicting Thermal Performance of an Enhanced Geothermal System From Tracer Tests in a Data Assimilation Framework

Abstract Predicting the thermal performance of an enhanced geothermal system (EGS) requires a comprehensive characterization of the underlying fracture flow patterns from practically available data such as tracer data. However, due to the inherent complexities of subsurface fractures and the generally insufficient geological/geophysical data, interpreting tracer data for fracture flow characterization and thermal prediction remains a challenging task. The present study aims to tackle the challenge by leveraging a data assimilation method to maximize the utilization of information inherently contained in tracer data, and meanwhile maintain the flexibility to handle various uncertainties. A tracer data interpretation framework was proposed with the following three components integrated: (a) We use principal component analysis (PCA) to reduce the dimensionality of model parameter space. (b) We use ES‐MDA (ensemble smoother with multiple data assimilation) to invert for fracture aperture/flow fields and obtain posterior model ensembles for uncertainty quantification. Various data types are assimilated jointly to improve the predictive ability of the posterior ensemble. (c) The inverted fracture aperture fields are then incorporated into reservoir models to predict thermal performance. We developed a field‐scale EGS model to verify the ability of the framework to characterize highly heterogeneous fracture aperture/flow fields and predicting thermal performance. We also applied the framework to a mesoscale field experiment to demonstrate its potential application in real‐world geothermal reservoirs. The results indicate that the proposed framework can effectively retrieve fracture flow information from tracer data for thermal prediction and uncertainty quantification, and thus provide informative guidance for EGS optimization and risk management.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Sensitivity analysis of numerical modeling input parameters on floating offshore wind turbine loads in extreme idling conditions

Abstract. Floating offshore wind turbine (FOWT) systems are subject to complex environmental loads, with significant potential for damage in extreme storm conditions. Design simulations in these conditions are required to assess the survivability of the device with some level of confidence. Aero-hydro-servo-elastic engineering tools can be used with a reasonable balance of accuracy and computational efficiency. The models require many input parameters to describe the air and water conditions, the system properties, and the load calculations. Each of these parameters has some possible range, due to either statistical uncertainty or variations with time. Variation in the input parameters can have important effects on the uncertainty in the resulting loads, but it is not practical to perform detailed assessments of the impact of this uncertainty for every input parameter. This work demonstrates a method to identify the input parameters that have the most impact on the loads to focus further inspection. The process is done specifically for extreme storm load cases defined in the International Electrotechnical Commission design requirements for floating offshore wind turbines. The analysis was performed using the International Energy Agency Wind 15 MW offshore reference wind turbine atop the University of Maine VolturnUS-S reference platform in two US offshore wind regions, the Gulf of Maine and Humboldt Bay. It was found that the direction of incident waves and current, yaw misalignment, and the length of mooring line sections were among the primary sensitivities.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

NitroNet: Smart System to Quantify Nitrous Oxide Emissions

Agricultural croplands are the largest anthropogenic source of nitrous oxide (N 2 O), the third most important greenhouse gas. Emissions are characterized by “hot spots” and “hot moments”, meaning emissions are highly heterogeneous in space and time. Emissions are driven by nitrification and denitrification processes which depend upon complex factors such as soil characteristics (type, compaction, pH, moisture, topography), management practices (fertilizer type and application, tillage, crop type, field history, irrigation), biogeochemistry (organic carbon, microbial composition), and meteorology (precipitation, temperature, and wind). For these reasons, quantifying cropland emissions by either measurements or modeling is extremely challenging with large uncertainties.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2020

CheKiPEUQ Intro 2: Harnessing Uncertainties from Data Sets, Bayesian Design of Experiments in Chemical Kinetics**

When choosing experimental conditions, Bayesian statistical tools can predict the experimental choices which will yield the highest information gain. Experimental choices could be temperature, pressure, reaction time, number of measurements, reactor volume, etc.. Three example analyses are presented here, each using the software Chemical Kinetics Parameter Estimation and Uncertainty Quantification (CheKiPEUQ). Information gain is a measure of reduction of uncertainty in a model's parameters. The three chemical system examples presented each illustrate Bayesian Design of Experiments using information gain. In the first chemical example, temperature selection impacts the information gain for the free energy of reaction in a two-component equilibrium reaction. In the second example, temperature and pressure are explored for a competitive adsorption Langmuir replacement reaction system. Finally, the third example is a catalytic membrane reactor which is a culmination of the previous examples. The catalytic membrane reactor has a complex and nonlinear response in the observables which is solved by numerical evaluation. In the three examples, the experimental conditions are treated as design variables for maximizing information gain.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Apparatus and method for optimizing quantifiable behavior in configurable devices and systems

An apparatus and method are provided to perform constrained optimization of a constrained property of an apparatus, which is complex due to having several components, and these components are configurable in real-time. The optimization is achieved by detecting values of the constrained property and a plurality of other properties of the apparatus when the apparatus is configured in a first subset of the plurality of configurations. A model is learned using the detected values of the constrained property. The model represents the constrained property and can also represent other properties as a function of the configurations. The model can also include estimated uncertainties of the constrained property in the model. Then, using the d model and the estimated uncertainties, the optimal configuration can be selected to minimize an error value (e.g., the difference between a desired value and an observed value of the at least one constrained property).

Hoffmann, Henry↗
DOE OSTI2024

Causally‐Informed Deep Learning to Improve Climate Models and Projections

Abstract Climate models are essential to understand and project climate change, yet long‐standing biases and uncertainties in their projections remain. This is largely associated with the representation of subgrid‐scale processes, particularly clouds and convection. Deep learning can learn these subgrid‐scale processes from computationally expensive storm‐resolving models while retaining many features at a fraction of computational cost. Yet, climate simulations with embedded neural network parameterizations are still challenging and highly depend on the deep learning solution. This is likely associated with spurious non‐physical correlations learned by the neural networks due to the complexity of the physical dynamical system. Here, we show that the combination of causality with deep learning helps removing spurious correlations and optimizing the neural network algorithm. To resolve this, we apply a causal discovery method to unveil causal drivers in the set of input predictors of atmospheric subgrid‐scale processes of a superparameterized climate model in which deep convection is explicitly resolved. The resulting causally‐informed neural networks are coupled to the climate model, hence, replacing the superparameterization and radiation scheme. We show that the climate simulations with causally‐informed neural network parameterizations retain many convection‐related properties and accurately generate the climate of the original high‐resolution climate model, while retaining similar generalization capabilities to unseen climates compared to the non‐causal approach. The combination of causal discovery and deep learning is a new and promising approach that leads to stable and more trustworthy climate simulations and paves the way toward more physically‐based causal deep learning approaches also in other scientific disciplines.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2024

A multi-algorithm approach for modeling coastal wetland eco-geomorphology

Coastal wetlands play an important role in the global water and biogeochemical cycles. Climate change makes it more difficult for these ecosystems to adapt to the fluctuation in sea levels and other environmental changes. Given the importance of eco-geomorphological processes for coastal wetland resilience, many eco-geomorphology models differing in complexity and numerical schemes have been developed in recent decades. However, their divergent estimates of the response of coastal wetlands to climate change indicate that substantial structural uncertainties exist in these models. To investigate the structural uncertainty of coastal wetland eco-geomorphology models, we developed a multi-algorithm model framework of eco-geomorphological processes, such as mineral accretion and organic matter accretion, within a single hydrodynamics model. The framework is designed to explore possible ways to represent coastal wetland eco-geomorphology in Earth system models and reduce the related uncertainties in global applications. We tested this model framework at three representative coastal wetland sites: two saltmarsh wetlands (Venice Lagoon and Plum Island Estuary) and a mangrove wetland (Hunter Estuary). Through the model–data comparison, we showed the importance of using a multi-algorithm ensemble approach for more robust predictions of the evolution of coastal wetlands. We also found that more observations of mineral and organic matter accretion at different elevations of coastal wetlands and evaluation of the coastal wetland models at different sites in diverse environments can help reduce the model uncertainty.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

AATTENUATION—The Atmospheric Attenuation Model for CSP Tower Plants: A Look-Up Table for Operational Implementation

Attenuation of solar radiation between the receiver and the heliostat field in concentrated solar power (CSP) tower plants can reduce the overall system performance significantly. The attenuation varies strongly with time and the average attenuation at different sites might also vary strongly from each other. If no site specific attenuation data is available, the optimal plant design cannot be determined and rough estimations of the attenuation effect are required leading to high uncertainties of yield analysis calculations. The attenuation is caused mainly by water vapor content and aerosol particles in the lower atmospheric layer above ground. Although several on-site measurement systems have been developed during recent years, attenuation data sets are usually not available to be included during the plant project development. An Atmospheric Attenuation (AATTENUATION) model to derive the atmospheric transmittance between a heliostat and receiver on the basis of common direct normal irradiance (DNI), temperature, relative humidity, and barometric pressure measurements was developed and validated by the authors earlier. The model allows the accurate estimation of attenuation for sites with low attenuation and gives an estimation of the attenuation for less clear sites. However, the site-dependent coefficients of the AATTENUATION model had to be developed individually for each site of interest, which required time-consuming radiative transfer simulations, considering the exact location and altitude, as well as the pre-dominant aerosol type at the location. This strongly limited the application of the model despite its typically available input data. In this manuscript, a look-up table (LUT) is presented which enables the application of the AATTENUATION model at the site of interest without the necessity to perform the according complex radiative transfer calculations for each site individually. This enables the application of the AATTENUATION model for virtually all resource assessments for tower plants and in an operational mode in real time within plant monitoring systems around the world. The LUT also facilitates the generation of solar attenuation maps on the basis of long-term meteorological data sets which can be considered during resource assessment for CSP tower plant projects. The LUTs are provided together with this manuscript as supplementary files. The LUT for the AATTENUATION model was developed for a solar zenith angle (SZA) grid of 1°, an altitude grid of 100 m, 7 different standard aerosol types and the standard AFGL atmospheres for mid-latitudes and the tropics. The LUT was tested against the original version of the AATTENUATION model at 4 sites in Morocco and Spain, and it was found that the additional uncertainty introduced by the application of the LUT is negligible. With the information of latitude, longitude, altitude above mean sea level, DNI, relative humidity (RH), ambient temperature (Tair), and barometric pressure (bp), the attenuation can be now derived easily for each site of interest.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Discovering the Multisectoral Impacts of Global Energy Sector Outcomes Through Multiple Ensemble Aggregation Measures

Understanding complex human-Earth system interactions often involves analyzing large scenario ensembles that encompass a wide range of plausible futures. These ensembles often require aggregation to summarize information based on specific criteria or conditions. However, previous research using global change scenario ensembles has largely overlooked how the choice of aggregation method influences the interpretation of results. To address this gap, we leverage a large ensemble data set designed to capture broad energy system dynamics generated using the Global Change Analysis Model. We first explore how energy-related uncertainties are propagated to both global and regional water-energy-food sectors. We then conduct a rank correlation analysis across seven ensemble aggregation measures and demonstrate the need to consider multiple measures in global change scenarios. Our results suggest that global water and food sector outcomes in the 21st century vary widely depending on different scenario assumptions. The global energy productivity is projected to improve by the end of the century across all scenarios. Moreover, regions facing water scarcity challenges in 2100 do not always overlap with those facing extreme energy and food sector outcomes. Although rank correlations across seven aggregation measures are relatively stable across sectors, we identify cases where relying on a single measure leads to losing critical information in the full ensemble. Reliance on a single aggregation measure can distort the interpretation of global change scenario outcomes. Instead, adopting multiple ensemble aggregation measures provides a more holistic understanding of global change scenario ensembles.

Kim, Gijoo↗
DOE OSTI2021

Surface vs Homogeneous Organo-Hafnium Catalyst Ion-Pairing and Ligand Effects on Ethylene Homo- and Copolymerizations

Heterogeneous catalysts have long dominated polyethylene and polypropylene production, but understanding their catalysis is challenged by uncertainties in active site structures and percentages. Surface-bound organometallic catalysts are an emerging strategy to combine successful homogeneous catalysts having well-understood structures, relatively high percentages of active sites, and exceptional control of selectivity, with the attractions of surface catalysts, to transition promising homogeneous systems to large-scale heterogeneous ones. Nevertheless, surface-bound olefin polymerization catalysts typically produce ultrahigh M w ’s but with low activity and comonomer selectivity. Here, we report the systematic synthesis and characterization of a series of pyridylamido–Hf complexes and their corresponding surface catalysts chemisorbed on sulfated alumina (AlS) and zirconia (ZrS). Comparative ethylene homo- and 1-octene copolymerizations reveal similar activity and 1-octene selectivity trends in the homogeneous and heterogeneous systems. For the surface pyridylamido–Hf catalyst series, large variations in activity (up to 10×) and 1-octene incorporation (up to 28×) are achieved by ligand and support manipulation. Interestingly, while the homogeneous catalysts exhibit positive comonomer effects in ethylene/1-octene copolymerization, the surface catalysts behave oppositely. Extended X-ray absorption fine structure (EXAFS) reveals significantly elongated Hf···O bond distances vs typical Hf–O covalent bonds (2.06 vs 1.97 Å). Furthermore, density functional theory (DFT) analysis of the heterolytic ion pair separation enthalpies, olefin insertion energetics, and NBO/Bader charges also suggest electrostatic Hf cation–anionic support binding and catalytic patterns, which are modulated by the ion-pairing energetics and ligand architecture.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Free-moving Quantitative Gamma-ray Imaging

The ability to map and estimate the activity of radiological source distributions in unknown three-dimensional environments has applications in the prevention and response to radiological accidents or threats as well as the enforcement and verification of international nuclear non-proliferation agreements. Such a capability requires well-characterized detector response functions, accurate time-dependent detector position and orientation data, a digitized representation of the surrounding 3D environment, and appropriate image reconstruction and uncertainty quantification methods. We have previously demonstrated 3D mapping of gamma-ray emitters with free-moving detector systems on a relative intensity scale using a technique called Scene Data Fusion (SDF). Here we characterize the detector response of a multi-element gamma-ray imaging system using experimentally benchmarked Monte Carlo simulations and perform 3D mapping on an absolute intensity scale. We present experimental reconstruction results from hand-carried and airborne measurements with point-like and distributed sources in known configurations, demonstrating quantitative SDF in complex 3D environments.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Foundation Models for the Electric Power Grid

Foundation models (FMs) currently dominate news headlines. They employ advanced deep learning architectures to extract structural information autonomously from vast datasets through self-supervision. The resulting rich representations of complex systems and dynamics can be applied to many downstream applications. Therefore, advances in FMs can find uses in electric power grids, challenged by the energy transition and climate change. This paper calls for the development of FMs for electric grids. We highlight their strengths and weaknesses amidst the challenges of a changing grid. It is argued that FMs learning from diverse grid data and topologies, which we call grid foundation models (GridFMs), could unlock transformative capabilities, pioneering a new approach to leveraging AI to redefine how we manage complexity and uncertainty in the electric grid. Finally, we discuss a practical implementation pathway and road map of a GridFM-v0, a first GridFM for power flow applications based on graph neural networks, and explore how various downstream use cases will benefit from this model and future GridFMs.

AI-based power flow simulation↗
DOE OSTI2023

Explainable deep learning for insights in El Niño and river flows

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a semi-periodic fluctuation in sea surface temperature (SST) over the tropical central and eastern Pacific Ocean that influences interannual variability in regional hydrology across the world through long-range dependence or teleconnections. Recent research has demonstrated the value of Deep Learning (DL) methods for improving ENSO prediction as well as Complex Networks (CN) for understanding teleconnections. However, gaps in predictive understanding of ENSO-driven river flows include the black box nature of DL, the use of simple ENSO indices to describe a complex phenomenon and translating DL-based ENSO predictions to river flow predictions. Here we show that eXplainable DL (XDL) methods, based on saliency maps, can extract interpretable predictive information contained in global SST and discover SST information regions and dependence structures relevant for river flows which, in tandem with climate network constructions, enable improved predictive understanding. Our results reveal additional information content in global SST beyond ENSO indices, develop understanding of how SSTs influence river flows, and generate improved river flow prediction, including uncertainty estimation. Observations, reanalysis data, and earth system model simulations are used to demonstrate the value of the XDL-CN based methods for future interannual and decadal scale climate projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Characterization of Fuel-to-Coolant Heat Transfer During Reactivity-Initiated Accidents Using Tightly Coupled Thermal Hydraulics and Fuel Thermomechanics

The reactivity-initiated accident (RIA) is a complex scenario with several tightly interacting physical phenomena. Accurately predicting fuel behavior during these transients is difficult due to limitations in the modeling of fuel-to-coolant heat transfer. Common approaches to simulate RIAs involve standalone calculations using either a fuel performance code or a thermal-hydraulic code. The complex interdependencies of thermal-hydraulic and fuel mechanical behavior suggest that a tight coupling between these codes may provide more accurate predictions of fuel-to-coolant heat transfer and cladding mechanical response. Here, RELAP5-3D and BISON are coupled in this paper to simulate RIAs, and a sensitivity analysis is performed to rank key thermal properties and two-phase heat transfer parameters relevant for fuel-to-coolant heat transfer and cladding failure mechanisms in UO 2 –Zircaloy-4 systems. Gas gap conductance, film boiling heat transfer uncertainty, pulse width, fuel-specific heat capacity, and cladding-specific heat capacity were identified as important parameters. Variations in figures of merit resulting from changes to pulse width and the material thermal properties indicate that time-dependent heat transfer rates are significant for safety-relevant mechanical parameters due to the time dependence of cladding ductility and pellet-cladding mechanical interaction loading. The results suggest that the thermal-hydraulic factors have a nonnegligible influence on the thermomechanical solution and vice versa. Tight coupling of both sets of physics is recommended to improve prediction of fuel behavior during RIAs. Highlights include the following: 1. The RELAP5-3D thermal-hydraulic code and the BISON fuel performance code are tightly coupled for simulation of RIA transients with energy depositions at the Zircaloy-4 cladding failure threshold. 2. Departure from nucleate boiling occurred for all simulated cases. Due to the ductility of fresh fuel, substantial ballooning occurred in most cases. 3. Gas gap conductance, fuel-specific heat capacity, cladding-specific heat capacity, transient pulse width, and film boiling heat transfer were the dominant thermal factors impacting the safety figures of merit at energy depositions.

Critical Heat Flux (CHF)↗
DOE OSTI2020

Creation of a Mixed-Mode Fracture Network at Mesoscale Through Hydraulic Fracturing and Shear Stimulation

Enhanced Geothermal Systems could provide a substantial contribution to the global energy demand if their implementation could overcome inherent challenges. Examples are insufficient created permeability, early thermal breakthrough, and unacceptable induced seismicity. In this study we report on the seismic response of a mesoscale hydraulic fracturing experiment performed at 1.5-km depth at the Sanford Underground Research Facility. We have measured the seismic activity by utilizing a 100-kHz, continuous seismic monitoring system deployed in six 60-m length monitoring boreholes surrounding the experimental domain in 3-D. The achieved location uncertainty was on the order of 1 m and limited by the signal-to-noise ratio of detected events. These uncertainties were corroborated by detections of fracture intersections at the monitoring boreholes. Three intervals of the dedicated injection borehole were hydraulically stimulated by water injection at pressures up to 33 MPa and flow rates up to 5 L/min. We located 1,933 seismic events during several injection periods. The recorded seismicity delineates a complex fracture network comprised of multistrand hydraulic fractures and shear-reactivated, preexisting planes of weakness that grew unilaterally from the point of initiation. We find that heterogeneity of stress dictates the seismic outcome of hydraulic stimulations, even when relying on theoretically well-behaved hydraulic fractures. Once hydraulic fractures intersected boreholes, the boreholes acted as a pressure relief and fracture propagation ceased. In order to create an efficient subsurface heat exchanger, production boreholes should not be drilled before the end of hydraulic stimulations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Qualitative Strategy for Fusion of Physics into Empirical Models for Process Anomaly Detection

To facilitate the automated online monitoring of power plants, a systematic and qualitative strategy for anomaly detection is presented. This strategy is essential to provide credible reasoning on why and when an empirical versus hybrid (i.e., physics-supported) approach should be used and to determine the ideal mix of these two approaches for a defined anomaly detection scope. Empirical methods are usually based on pattern, statistical, and causal inference. Hybrid methods include the use of physics models to train and test data methods, reduce data dimensionality, reduce data-model complexity, augment data, and reduce empirical uncertainty; hybrid methods also include the use of data to tune physics models. The presented strategy is driven by key decision points related to data relevance, simple modeling feasibility, data inference, physics-modeling value, data dimensionality, physics knowledge, method of validation, performance, data availability, and suitability for training and testing, cause-effect, entropy inference, and model fitting. The strategy is demonstrated through a pilot use case for the application of anomaly detection to capture a valve packing leak at the high-pressure coolant injection system of a nuclear power plant.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗