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DOE OSTI2024

Decomposing causality into its synergistic, unique, and redundant components

Causality lies at the heart of scientific inquiry, serving as the fundamental basis for understanding interactions among variables in physical systems. Despite its central role, current methods for causal inference face significant challenges due to nonlinear dependencies, stochastic interactions, self-causation, collider effects, and influences from exogenous factors, among others. While existing methods can effectively address some of these challenges, no single approach has successfully integrated all these aspects. Here, we address these challenges with SURD: Synergistic-Unique-Redundant Decomposition of causality. SURD quantifies causality as the increments of redundant, unique, and synergistic information gained about future events from past observations. The formulation is non-intrusive and applicable to both computational and experimental investigations, even when samples are scarce. We benchmark SURD in scenarios that pose significant challenges for causal inference and demonstrate that it offers a more reliable quantification of causality compared to previous methods.

applied mathematics↗

DOE OSTI2020

Comparing the Use of High- to Low-Cost Black Carbon and Carbon Dioxide Sensors for Characterizing On-Road Diesel Truck Emissions

The exhaust plume capture method is a commonly used approach to measure pollutants emitted by in-use heavy-duty diesel trucks. Lower cost sensors, if used in place of traditional research-grade analyzers, could enable wider application of this method, including use as a monitoring tool to identify high-emitting trucks that may warrant inspection and maintenance. However, low-cost sensors have for the most part only been evaluated under ambient conditions as opposed to source-influenced environments with rapidly changing pollutant concentrations. This study compared black carbon (BC) emission factors determined using different BC and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) sensors that range in cost from $200 to $20,000. Controlled laboratory experiments show that traditional zero and span steady-state calibration checks are not robust indicators of sensor performance when sampling short duration concentration peaks. Fleet BC emission factor distributions measured at two locations at the Port of Oakland in California with 16 BC/CO 2 sensor pairs were similar, but unique sensor pairs identified different high-emitting trucks. At one location, the low-cost PP Systems SBA-5 agreed on the classification of 90% of the high emitters identified by the LI-COR LI-7000 when both were paired with the Magee Scientific AE33. Conversely, lower cost BC sensors when paired with the LI-7000 misclassified more than 50% of high emitters when compared to the AE33/LI-7000. Confidence in emission factor quantification and high-emitter identification improves with larger integrated peak areas of CO 2 and especially BC. This work highlights that sensor evaluation should be conducted under application-specific conditions, whether that be for ambient air monitoring or source characterization.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Uncertainty quantification in multivariable regression for material property prediction with Bayesian neural networks

With the increased use of data-driven approaches and machine learning-based methods in material science, the importance of reliable uncertainty quantification (UQ) of the predicted variables for informed decision-making cannot be overstated. UQ in material property prediction poses unique challenges, including multi-scale and multi-physics nature of materials, intricate interactions between numerous factors, limited availability of large curated datasets, etc. In this work, we introduce a physics-informed Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) approach for UQ, which integrates knowledge from governing laws in materials to guide the models toward physically consistent predictions. To evaluate the approach, we present case studies for predicting the creep rupture life of steel alloys. Experimental validation with three datasets of creep tests demonstrates that this method produces point predictions and uncertainty estimations that are competitive or exceed the performance of conventional UQ methods such as Gaussian Process Regression. Additionally, we evaluate the suitability of employing UQ in an active learning scenario and report competitive performance. The most promising framework for creep life prediction is BNNs based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo approximation of the posterior distribution of network parameters, as it provided more reliable results in comparison to BNNs based on variational inference approximation or related NNs with probabilistic outputs.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Design Guidelines for Deployable Wind Turbines for Military Operational Energy Applications

This document aims to provide guidance on the design and operation of deployable wind systems that provide maximum value to missions in defense and disaster relief. Common characteristics of these missions are shorter planning and execution time horizons and a global scope of potential locations. Compared to conventional wind turbine applications, defense and disaster response applications place a premium on rapid shipping and installation, short-duration operation (days to months), and quick teardown upon mission completion. Furthermore, defense and disaster response applications are less concerned with cost of energy than conventional wind turbine applications. These factors impart design drivers that depart from the features found in conventional distributed wind turbines, thus necessitating unique design guidance. The supporting information for this guidance comes from available relevant references, technical analyses, and input from industry and military stakeholders. This document is not intended to be a comprehensive, prescriptive design specification. This document is intended to serve as a written record of an ongoing discussion of stakeholders about the best currently available design guidance for deployable wind turbines to help facilitate the effective development and acquisition of technology solutions to support mission success. The document is generally organized to provide high-level, focused guidance in the main body, with more extensive supporting details available in the referenced appendices. Section 2 begins with a brief qualitative description of the design guidelines being considered for the deployable wind turbines. Section 3 provides an overview of the characteristics of the mobile power systems commonly used in U.S. military missions. Section 4 covers current military and industry standards and specifications that are relevant to a deployable wind turbine design. Section 5 presents the deployable turbine design guidelines for the application cases.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Community Centered Solar Development (CCSD) Case Study Interviews [Slides]

Large-scale solar (LSS, defined here as ground-mounted photovoltaic projects ≥1 MWDC) has grown rapidly in the U.S., accounting for nearly half of new electric generating capacity added to the U.S. grid in 2022. All sources of electricity bring positive and negative impacts to hosting communities and the rapid growth of LSS has increased the urgency to understand those impacts. Yet, information about the potential positive and negative impacts of LSS on host communities, and the factors or drivers leading to support or opposition to a project, is lacking. This information gap limits how project developers, municipalities, and local siting authorities can address community concerns and appropriately align proposed projects to best suit and benefit local communities. As part of Berkeley Lab’s Community-Centered Solar Development (CCSD) project, this research set out to explore deep insights and perceptions from LSS stakeholders that only qualitative data can provide to identify key factors driving project success or threatened failure. Case studies, such as those utilized in this research, are uniquely adept at capturing the subjective experience of individuals and at identifying variables, structures, and interactions between stakeholders. Our case studies included 54 semi-structured interviews across 7 different LSS sites, representing a diversity of geographies, project sizes (MW), site types (i.e., greenfield, agrivoltaic, and brownfield / contaminated sites), zoning jurisdiction types, and more (Table 1). In addition to local residents living in close proximity to these LSS sites, we interviewed other key stakeholders involved in the projects such as developers, decision-makers, utility representatives, landowners, and individuals from community-based organizations. The overarching aim of this case study research was two-fold: (1) to inform subsequent tasks in the CCSD research project (including an upcoming national survey of LSS neighbors), and (2) to provide insights into the following set of research questions: -What are the key positive and negative drivers leading to support and opposition to LSS projects? -To what extent do LSS projects exacerbate or mitigate perceived inequities and marginalization within hosting communities and how can those inequities be mitigated going forward? -What strategies can communities employ to align LSS development with local land-use plans and community needs and values? The research findings and next steps are described in this slide deck report.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Comparative Penicillium spp. Transcriptomics: Conserved Pathways and Processes Revealed in Ungerminated Conidia and during Postharvest Apple Fruit Decay

Blue mold, caused by Penicillium spp., is an impactful postharvest disease resulting in significant economic losses due to reduced pome fruit quality and mycotoxin contamination. Using two Penicillium species with different levels of aggressiveness, transcriptomics were implemented in order to identify genes expressed during apple fruit decay and loci expressed in ungerminated conidia. Total RNA was isolated from ungerminated conidia and decayed apple fruit infected with P. expansum R19 or P. polonicum RS1. There were 2442 differentially expressed genes (DEGs) between the R19 and RS1 in apple. Comparisons within species between apple and conidia revealed 4404 DEGs for R19 and 2935 for RS1, respectively. Gene ontology (GO) analysis revealed differential regulation in fungal transport and metabolism genes during decay, suggesting a flux in nutrient acquisition and detoxification strategies. In R19, the oxidoreductase GO category comprised 20% of all DEG groups in apple verses conidia. Ungerminated conidia from both species showed DEGs encoding the glyoxylate shunt and beta-oxidation, specifying the earliest metabolic requirements for germination. This is the first study to identify pre-loaded transcripts in conidia from blue mold fungi, reveal unique genes between species expressed during apple decay, and show the expression dynamics of known fungal virulence factors. These findings will enable development of targeted approaches for blue mold abatement strategies.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1990

Random vibration analysis of space flight hardware using NASTRAN

During liftoff and ascent flight phases, the Space Transportation System (STS) and payloads are exposed to the random acoustic environment produced by engine exhaust plumes and aerodynamic disturbances. The analysis of payloads for randomly fluctuating loads is usually carried out using the Miles' relationship. This approximation technique computes an equivalent load factor as a function of the natural frequency of the structure, the power spectral density of the excitation, and the magnification factor at resonance. Due to the assumptions inherent in Miles' equation, random load factors are often over-estimated by this approach. In such cases, the estimates can be refined using alternate techniques such as time domain simulations or frequency domain spectral analysis. Described here is the use of NASTRAN to compute more realistic random load factors through spectral analysis. The procedure is illustrated using Spacelab Life Sciences (SLS-1) payloads and certain unique features of this problem are described. The solutions are compared with Miles' results in order to establish trends at over or under prediction.

Thampi, S. K.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Longitudinal-control design approach for high-angle-of-attack aircraft

This paper describes a control synthesis methodology that emphasizes a variable-gain output feedback technique that is applied to the longitudinal channel of a high-angle-of-attack aircraft. The aircraft is a modified F/A-18 aircraft with thrust-vectored controls. The flight regime covers a range up to a Mach number of 0.7; an altitude range from 15,000 to 35,000 ft; and an angle-of-attack (alpha) range up to 70 deg, which is deep into the poststall region. A brief overview is given of the variable-gain mathematical formulation as well as a description of the discrete control structure used for the feedback controller. This paper also presents an approximate design procedure with relationships for the optimal weights for the selected feedback control structure. These weights are selected to meet control design guidelines for high-alpha flight controls. Those guidelines that apply to the longitudinal-control design are also summarized. A unique approach is presented for the feed-forward command generator to obtain smooth transitions between load factor and alpha commands. Finally, representative linear analysis results and nonlinear batch simulation results are provided.

Ostroff, Aaron J.↗

NASA NTRS2001

The Bermuda Bio-Optics Program (BBOP)

The Bermuda Bio-Optics Project (BBOP) is a collaborative effort between the Institute for Computational Earth System Science (ICESS) at the University of California at Santa Barbara (UCSB) and the Bermuda Biological Station for Research (BBSR). This research program is designed to characterize light availability and utilization in the Sargasso Sea, and to provide an optical link by which biogeochemical observations may be used to evaluate bio-optical models for pigment concentration, primary production, and sinking particle fluxes from satellite-based ocean color sensors. The BBOP time-series was initiated in 1992, and is carried out in conjunction with the US JGOFS Bermuda Atlantic Time-series Study (BATS) at the Bermuda Biological Station for Research. The BATS program itself has been observing biogeochemical processes (primary productivity, particle flux at and elemental cycles) in the mesotrophic waters of the Sargasso Sea since 1988. Closely affiliated with BBOP and BATS is a separate NASA-funded study of the spatial variability of biogeochemical processes in the Sargasso Sea using high-resolution Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) and Sea-Viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) data collected at Bermuda. The collaboration between BATS and BBOP measurements has resulted in a unique data set that addresses not only the SIMBIOS goals but also the broader issues of important factors controlling the carbon cycle.

Siegel, David A.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Preliminary Design and Evaluation of Portable Electronic Flight Progress Strips

There has been growing interest in using electronic alternatives to the paper Flight Progress Strip (FPS) for air traffic control. However, most research has been centered on radar-based control environments, and has not considered the unique operational needs of the airport air traffic control tower. Based on an analysis of the human factors issues for control tower Decision Support Tool (DST) interfaces, a requirement has been identified for an interaction mechanism which replicates the advantages of the paper FPS (e.g., head-up operation, portability) but also enables input and output with DSTs. An approach has been developed which uses a Portable Electronic FPS that has attributes of both a paper strip and an electronic strip. The prototype flight strip system uses Personal Digital Assistants (PDAs) to replace individual paper strips in addition to a central management interface which is displayed on a desktop computer. Each PDA is connected to the management interface via a wireless local area network. The Portable Electronic FPSs replicate the core functionality of paper flight strips and have additional features which provide a heads-up interface to a DST. A departure DST is used as a motivating example. The central management interface is used for aircraft scheduling and sequencing and provides an overview of airport departure operations. This paper will present the design of the Portable Electronic FPS system as well as preliminary evaluation results.

Doble, Nathan A.↗

NASA NTRS2003

The Bermuda BioOptics Project (BBOP) Years 9-11

The Bermuda BioOptics Project (BBOP) is a collaborative effort between the Institute for Computational Earth System Science (ICESS) at the University of California at Santa Barbara (UCSB) and the Bermuda Biological Station for Research (BBSR). This research program is designed to characterize light availability and utilization in the Sargasso Sea, and to provide an optical link by which biogeochemical observations may be used to evaluate bio-optical models for pigment concentration, primary production, and sinking particle fluxes from satellite-based ocean color sensors. The BBOP time-series was initiated in 1992, and is carried out in conjunction with the U.S. JGOFS Bermuda Atlantic Time-series Study (BATS) at the Bermuda Biological Station for Research. The BATS program itself has been observing biogeochemical processes (primary productivity, particle flux and elemental cycles) in the mesotrophic waters of the Sargasso Sea since 1988. Closely affiliated with BBOP and BATS is a separate NASA-funded study of the spatial variability of biogeochemical processes in the Sargasso Sea using high-resolution AVHRR and SeaWiFS data collected at Bermuda. The collaboration between BATS and BBOP measurements has resulted in a unique data set that addresses not only the SIMBIOS goals but also the broader issues of important factors controlling the carbon cycle. This final report addresses specific research activities, research results, and lists of presentations and papers submitted for publication.

Nelson, Norm↗

NASA NTRS2003

Bermuda Bio Optics Project

The Bermuda BioOptics Project (BBOP) is a collaborative effort between the Institute for Computational Earth System Science (ICESS) at the University of California at Santa Barbara (UCSB) and the Bermuda Biological Station for Research (BBSR). This research program is designed to characterize light availability and utilization in the Sargasso Sea, and to provide an optical link by which biogeochemical observations may be used to evaluate bio-optical models for pigment concentration, primary production, and sinking particle fluxes from satellite-based ocean color sensors. The BBOP time-series was initiated in 1992, and is carried out in conjunction with the U.S. JGOFS Bermuda Atlantic Time-series Study (BATS) at the Bermuda Biological Station for Research. The BATS program itself has been observing biogeochemical processes (primary productivity, particle flux and elemental cycles) in the mesotrophic waters of the Sargasso Sea since 1988. Closely affiliated with BBOP and BATS is a separate NASA-funded study of the spatial variability of biogeochemical processes in the Sargasso Sea using high-resolution AVHRR and SeaWiFS data collected at Bermuda (N. Nelson, P.I.). The collaboration between BATS and BBOP measurements has resulted in a unique data set that addresses not only the SIMBIOS goals but also the broader issues of important factors controlling the carbon cycle.

Nelson, Norm↗

NASA NTRS2004

The Bermuda BioOptics Project (BBOP) Years 9-11

Maritorena, S.↗

NASA NTRS2004

A Two-Dimensional, Semiconducting Bolometer Array for HAWC

The Stratospheric Observatory For Infrared Astronomy's (SOFIA's) High resolution Airborne Wideband Camera (HAWC) will use an ion-implanted silicon bolometer array developed at NASA s Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). The GSFC Pop-Up Detectors (PUDs) use a unique folding technique to enable a 12 x 32 element closepacked array of bolometers with a filling factor greater than 95%. The HAWC detector uses a resistive metal film on silicon to provide frequency independent, approx. 50% absorption over the 40 - 300 micron band. The silicon bolometers are manufactured in 32-element rows within silicon frames using Micro Electro Mechanical Systems (MEMS) silicon etching techniques. The frames are then cut, "folded", and glued onto a metallized, ceramic, thermal bus "bar". Optical alignment using micrometer jigs ensures their uniformity and correct placement. The rows are then stacked side-by-side to create the final 12 x 32 element array. A kinematic Kevlar suspension system isolates the 200 mK bolometer cold stage from the rest of the 4K detector housing. GSFC - developed silicon bridge chips make electrical connection to the bolometers, while maintaining thermal isolation. The Junction Field Effect Transistor (JFET) preamplifiers for all the signal channels operate at 120 K, yet they are electrically connected and located in close proximity to the bolometers. The JFET module design provides sufficient thermal isolation and heat sinking for these, so that their heat is not detected by the bolometers. Preliminary engineering results from the flight detector dark test run are expected to be available in July 2004. This paper describes the array assembly and mechanical and thermal design of the HAWC detector and the JFET module.

Voellmer, George M.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Air Cargo Transportation Route Choice Analysis

Using a unique feature of air cargo transshipment data in the Northeast Asian region, this paper identifies the critical factors that determine the transshipment route choice. Taking advantage of the variations in the transport characteristics in each origin-destination airports pair, the paper uses a discrete choice model to describe the transshipping route choice decision made by an agent (i.e., freight forwarder, consolidator, and large shipper). The analysis incorporates two major factors, monetary cost (such as line-haul cost and landing fee) and time cost (i.e., aircraft turnaround time, including loading and unloading time, custom clearance time, and expected scheduled delay), along with other controls. The estimation method considers the presence of unobserved attributes, and corrects for resulting endogeneity by use of appropriate instrumental variables. Estimation results find that transshipment volumes are more sensitive to time cost, and that the reduction in aircraft turnaround time by 1 hour would be worth the increase in airport charges by more than $1000. Simulation exercises measures the impacts of alternative policy scenarios for a Korean airport, which has recently declared their intention to be a future regional hub in the Northeast Asian region. The results suggest that reducing aircraft turnaround time at the airport be an effective strategy, rather than subsidizing to reduce airport charges.

Obashi, Hiroshi↗

NASA NTRS2015

Exposing Microorganisms in the Stratosphere for Planetary Protection Project

Earths stratosphere is similar to the surface of Mars: rarified air which is dry, cold, and irradiated. E-MIST is a balloon payload that has 4 independently rotating skewers that hold known quantities of spore-forming bacteria isolated from spacecraft assembly facilities at NASA. Knowing the survival profile of microbes in the stratosphere can uniquely contribute to NASA Planetary Protection for Mars.Objectives 1. Collect environmental data in the stratosphere to understand factors impacting microbial survival. 2. Determine of surviving microbes (compared to starting quantities). 3. Examine microbial DNA mutations induced by stratosphere exposure.

Technology Portfolio System↗

NASA NTRS1994

On the Lighthill relationship and sound generation from isotropic turbulence

In 1952, Lighthill developed a theory for determining the sound generated by a turbulent motion of a fluid. With some statistical assumptions, Proudman applied this theory to estimate the acoustic power of isotropic turbulence. Recently, Lighthill established a simple relationship that relates the fourth-order retarded time and space covariance of his stress tensor to the corresponding second-order covariance and the turbulent flatness factor, without making statistical assumptions for a homogeneous turbulence. Lilley revisited Proudman's work and applied the Lighthill relationship to evaluate directly the radiated acoustic power from isotropic turbulence. After choosing the time separation dependence in the two-point velocity time and space covariance based on the insights gained from direct numerical simulations, Lilley concluded that the Proudman constant is determined by the turbulent flatness factor and the second-order spatial velocity covariance. In order to estimate the Proudman constant at high Reynolds numbers, we analyzed a unique data set of measurements in a large wind tunnel and atmospheric surface layer that covers a range of the Taylor microscale based on Reynolds numbers 2.0 x 10(exp 3) less than or equal to R(sub lambda) less than or equal to 12.7 x 10(exp 3). Our measurements demonstrate that the Lighthill relationship is a good approximation, providing additional support to Lilley's approach. The flatness factor is found between 2.7 - 3.3 and the second order spatial velocity covariance is obtained. Based on these experimental data, the Proudman constant is estimated to be 0.68 - 3.68.

Zhou, YE↗

NASA NTRS2016

Statistical Analysis of Instantaneous Frequency Scaling Factor as Derived From Optical Disdrometer Measurements At KQ Bands

The rain rate data and statistics of a location are often used in conjunction with models to predict rain attenuation. However, the true attenuation is a function not only of rain rate, but also of the drop size distribution (DSD). Generally, models utilize an average drop size distribution (Laws and Parsons or Marshall and Palmer. However, individual rain events may deviate from these models significantly if their DSD is not well approximated by the average. Therefore, characterizing the relationship between the DSD and attenuation is valuable in improving modeled predictions of rain attenuation statistics. The DSD may also be used to derive the instantaneous frequency scaling factor and thus validate frequency scaling models. Since June of 2014, NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) and the Politecnico di Milano (POLIMI) have jointly conducted a propagation study in Milan, Italy utilizing the 20 and 40 GHz beacon signals of the Alphasat TDP#5 Aldo Paraboni payload. The Ka- and Q-band beacon receivers provide a direct measurement of the signal attenuation while concurrent weather instrumentation provides measurements of the atmospheric conditions at the receiver. Among these instruments is a Thies Clima Laser Precipitation Monitor (optical disdrometer) which yields droplet size distributions (DSD); this DSD information can be used to derive a scaling factor that scales the measured 20 GHz data to expected 40 GHz attenuation. Given the capability to both predict and directly observe 40 GHz attenuation, this site is uniquely situated to assess and characterize such predictions. Previous work using this data has examined the relationship between the measured drop-size distribution and the measured attenuation of the link]. The focus of this paper now turns to a deeper analysis of the scaling factor, including the prediction error as a function of attenuation level, correlation between the scaling factor and the rain rate, and the temporal variability of the drop size distribution both within a given rain event and across different varieties of rain events. Index Terms-drop size distribution, frequency scaling, propagation losses, radiowave propagation.

Statistics↗