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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 325 records · Page 18
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Survival of Immature Gopher Tortoises Recruited into a Translocated Population

Population manipulations such as translocation and head-starting are increasingly used as recovery tools for chelonians. However, evaluating success of individual projects can require decades of monitoring to detect population trends in these long-lived species. Furthermore, there are often few benchmarks from stable, unmanipulated populations against which to compare demographic rates, particularly for the immature stages. Here, we used 8 years of mark-recapture data to estimate apparent survival of immature gopher tortoises recruited into an introduced population of gopher tortoises (Gopherus polyphemus) first established on St. Catherines Island, Georgia, USA in 1987. During 2006 29 -2013, we conducted targeted trapping of immature gopher tortoises and compared survival of the hatchling, juvenile and subadult stages among treatments: 1) individuals released shortly after hatching from eggs obtained from gravid female founders (‘direct releases’); 2) individuals reared in captivity for 6-9 months following hatching (‘head-starts’); and 3) individuals first encountered as free-ranging, wild-recruited offspring (‘wild recruits’). Among the candidate models we examined, the best fit model included additive effects of tortoise stage and treatment, however, overlapping 95% credible intervals among treatments (CI) suggested that survival did not vary significantly among treatments. Annual apparent survival increased over the immature period, highlighting the importance of calculating separate estimates for the different immature stages. Across all treatments, the additive model estimated annual apparent survival probability to be 0.37 (CI: 0.25 40 – 0.48) for hatchlings, 0.71 (CI: 0.61 – 0.81) for juveniles, and 0.83 (CI: 0.74 – 0.94) for subadults. Our study, in combination with previous monitoring efforts at St. Catherines Island, provides strong evidence that the translocation and subsequent population augmentation efforts have been successful in establishing a robust population of gopher tortoises. Additionally, our results provide estimates of demographic rates for life stages that are poorly understood but critical to understanding population dynamics of this imperiled species.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Elevation distributed micro-climatology data in a coastal glaciated watershed

Air temperature, ground temperature and relative humidity data were collected in a longitudinal transect of the Nooksack watershed at varying elevations from 500 to 1800 m above sea level. Data were collected by anchoring sensors from trees above winter snow levels and shaded from direct solar radiation. Paired sensors were also buried 3 cm under ground near each air temperature sensor to determine snow absence or presence. Select sites included relative humidity sensors to indicate whether precipitation was occurring. Data were collected every 3-4 h from December 2015 to Sept 2018 (with ongoing collection). Code for analysis of daily mean, minimum, maximum, and temperature change with elevation (lapse rates) are available on Github (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3239539). The sensor download and intermediate data products are available on HydroShare at (http://www.hydroshare.org/resource/222e832d3df24dea9bae9bbeb6f4219d) with publicly accessible visualization available from the Nooksack Observatory at data.cuahsi.org. Hydrologic models are generally structured with a single annual average lapse rate parameter which assumes a linear temperature gradient with elevation. The daily data (2016-2018) is used as part of ongoing studies on the non-linear dynamics and temporal variability of temperature with elevation to improve assessments of watershed function and salmon habitat.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Winds of fortune? Understanding the geographic, sociodemographic, and temporal distribution of benefit mechanisms from land-based wind projects in the United States

Despite decades of research on factors shaping local responses to wind development, there is relatively little known about benefit mechanisms (e.g., agreements, funds, donations) used by developers in the U.S. land-based wind sector. To address this gap, we collected benefit mechanism data across all current utility-scale land-based wind projects installed between 1982 and 2024 (n = 1047), finding that just under one-third of projects had a benefit mechanism attached to them. We find the use of benefit mechanisms has become more common over time, is associated with larger projects, and varies by region. In terms of host community characteristics, the use of benefit mechanisms is associated with characteristics like higher education level, higher percent white, higher percent Republican, higher decision-making capacity, lower unemployment rate, and higher poverty rate. Building on a theoretical framework of purposes, we discuss what these findings could suggest about the motivations driving developers' use of these mechanisms, such as increasing local acceptance of a wind project or supporting distributive fairness. This first-of-its-kind study builds a comprehensive understanding of how benefit mechanisms have been used in the U.S. wind industry throughout its history, which can inform future approaches to benefit-sharing across sectors.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Oriented Electrostatic Effects on O 2 and CO 2 Reduction by a Polycationic Iron Porphyrin

Next-generation energy technologies require improved methods for rapid and efficient chemical-to-electrical energy transformations. One new approach has been to include atomically-positioned, electrostatic motifs in molecular catalysts to stabilize high-energy, charged intermediates. For example, an iron porphyrin bearing four cationic, ortho-N,N,N-trimethylanilinium groups (o-[N(CH 3 ) 3 ] + ) has recently been used to catalyze the complex, multi-step O 2 and CO 2 reduction reactions (ORR and CO 2 RR) with fast rates and at low overpotentials. The success of this catalyst is attributed, at least in part, to specific charge-charge interactions between the atomically-positioned o-[N(CH 3 ) 3 ] + groups and the bound substrate. However, by nature of the mono-ortho substitution pattern, there are four possible atropisomers of this metalloporphyrin and thus four unique electrostatic environments. This work reports that each of the four individual atropisomers catalyzes both the ORR and CO 2 RR with fast rates and low overpotentials. The maximum turnover frequencies (TOF max ) vary among the atropisomers, by a factor of 60 for the ORR and a factor of 5 for CO 2 RR. For the ORR, the αβαβ isomer is the fastest and has the highest overpotential, while for the CO 2 RR, the order is reversed and the αααα isomer is the fastest and has the highest overpotential. The role of charge-positioning is complex and can affect more than a single step such as CO 2 binding. These data offer a first-of-a-kind perspective on atomically positioned charge and highlight the significance of high charge density, rather than orientation, on the thermodynamics and kinetics of multistep molecular electrochemical transformations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quasi-one-dimensional uniform spin- 1 2 Heisenberg antiferromagnet KNaCuP 2 O 7 probed by P 31 and Na 23 NMR

Here we present the structural and magnetic properties of KNaCuP 2 O 7 investigated via x-ray diffraction, magnetization, specific heat, and P 31 and Na 23 NMR measurements and complementary electronic structure calculations. The temperature-dependent magnetic susceptibility and P 31 NMR shift could be modeled very well by the uniform spin- 1 2 Heisenberg antiferromagnetic chain model with a nearest-neighbor interaction J / k B ≃ 58.7 K . The corresponding mapping using first-principles electronic structure calculations leads to J DFT / k B ≃ 59 K with negligibly small interchain couplings, further confirming that the system is indeed a one-dimensional uniform spin- 1 2 Heisenberg antiferromagnet. The diverging trend of NMR spin-lattice relaxation rates ( 1 / T 1 31 and 1 / T 1 23 ) implies the onset of a magnetic long-range ordering at around T N ≃ 1 K . From the value of T N , the average interchain coupling is estimated to be J ' / k B ≃ 0.28 K . Moreover, the NMR spin-lattice relaxation rates show the dominant contributions from uniform ( q = 0 ) and staggered ( q = ± π / a ) spin fluctuations in the high- and low-temperature regimes, respectively, mimicking one-dimensionality of the spin lattice. We have also demonstrated that 1 / T 1 31 in high temperatures varies linearly with 1 / H , reflecting the effect of spin diffusion on the dynamic susceptibility. The temperature-dependent unit cell volume could be described well using the Debye approximation with a Debye temperature of Θ D ≃ 294 K , consistent with the heat capacity data.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2024

Optimal Stopping Ages for Colorectal Cancer Screening

Importance Prior studies have shown that the benefits, harms, and costs of colorectal cancer (CRC) screening at older ages are associated with a patient’s sex, health, and screening history. However, these studies were hypothetical exercises and not directly informed by data on CRC risk. Objective To identify the optimal stopping ages for CRC screening by sex, comorbidity, and screening history from a cost-effectiveness perspective. Design, Setting, and Participants This economic evaluation first validated the MISCAN-Colon (Microsimulation Screening Analysis–Colon) model against community-based CRC incidence and mortality rates for 2 subcohorts of the PRECISE (Optimizing Colorectal Cancer Screening Precision and Outcomes in Community-Based Populations) cohort. Subsequently, different CRC screening scenarios were simulated in older individuals. Cohorts of US adults aged 76 to 90 years varied by sex and comorbidity status (none, low, moderate, or severe). Statistical and sensitivity analyses were performed from March 2023 to May 2024. Exposures CRC screening histories including fecal immunochemical test (FIT) or colonoscopy, such as a negative colonoscopy result from 10, 15, 20, 25, or 30 years before the index age; 1 to 5 negative FIT results within 5 years of the index age, with different patterns of recency; or a combination of negative colonoscopy and negative FIT results. Main Outcomes and Measures The main outcomes included estimated lifetime clinical outcomes, incremental costs, and quality-adjusted life-years gained (QALYG) associated with 1 additional FIT or colonoscopy. Optimal stopping age for screening, defined as the oldest age for which the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was still below the willingness-to-pay threshold of $\$$100 000 per QALYG, was evaluated. Results The first of the 2 PRECISE subcohorts used in validating the simulation model included 25 974 adults (15 060 females [58.0%]; 54.7% aged 76 to 80 years) with a negative colonoscopy result 10 years before the index date. The second subcohort consisted of 118 269 adults (67 058 females [56.7%]; 90.5% aged 76 to 80 years) with a negative FIT result 1 year before the index date. Older age, male sex, higher comorbidity levels, and recent CRC screenings were associated with reduced incremental benefit and cost-effectiveness of additional screening. For the reference cohort of 76-year-old females without comorbidities and a negative colonoscopy result 10 years before the index age, 1 additional colonoscopy cost $\$$38 226 per QALYG. For cohorts with otherwise equivalent characteristics, associated costs increased to $\$$1 689 945 per QALYG for females at age 90 years without comorbidities and a negative colonoscopy results 10 years before the index age, $\$$51 604 per QALYG for males at age 76 years without comorbidities and a negative colonoscopy result 10 years before the index age, and $\$$108 480 per QALYG for females at age 76 years with severe comorbidities and a negative colonoscopy result 10 years before the index age and decreased to $\$$16 870 per QALYG for females without comorbidities and a negative colonoscopy result 30 years before the index age. The optimal stopping ages across different cohorts ranged from younger than 76 to 86 years for colonoscopy and younger than 76 to 88 years for FIT. Conclusions and Relevance In this economic evaluation, age, sex, screening history, comorbidity, and future screening modality were associated with the clinical outcomes, cost-effectiveness, and optimal stopping age for CRC screening. These results can inform guideline development and patient-directed informed decision-making.

Harlass, Matthias [Erasmus Erasmus University Medi↗
DOE OSTI2025

Investigating the Global Biogeophysical Impact of Area and Mass Based Wood Harvest in a Vegetation Demography Model

Wood harvesting alters land surface properties and energy redistribution, but there is a lack of studies estimating these changes on a global scale. We coupled a vegetation demographic model, the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator, with the E3SM land model to perform offline model simulation to investigate the land biogeophysical responses, including canopy coverage, leaf area index, albedo, surface roughness length, and energy fluxes, to historical wood harvest on the global scale. In this study, we found 50% less harvested carbon (C) when choosing the area-based harvest rate as driving data that has not been spatially harmonized, compared to reharmonized mass-based harvesting. By considering the uncertainty from reconstruction of historical wood harvest time series and the choice of wood harvest approach in the model, continuous wood harvest (1850–2015) results in 5%–10% of canopy coverage loss, contributing 0.5%–1% increase of albedo over disturbed land, which is much stronger than a non-demographic land surface model. Changes in energy flux from the wood harvest are negligible (<1%), but the responses of land surface properties vary (up to 30%) due to differences in model structure between the single canopy, sun-shade leaf model and vegetation demographic model.

Shu, Shijie [Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory↗
DOE OSTI2025

Phylodynamics of SARS-CoV-2 Lineages B.1.1.7, B.1.1.529 and B.1.617.2 in Nigeria Suggests Divergent Evolutionary Trajectories

Background: The early months of the COVID-19 pandemic were characterized by high transmission rates and mortality, compounded by the emergence of multiple SARS-CoV-2 lineages, including Variants of Concern (VOCs). This study investigates the phylodynamic and spatio-temporal trends of VOCs during the peak of the pandemic in Nigeria. Methods: Whole-genome sequencing (WGS) data from three major VOCs circulating in Nigeria, B.1.1.7 (Alpha), B.1.617.2 (Delta), and B.1.1.529 (Omicron), were analyzed using tools such as Nextclade, R Studio v 4.2.3, and BEAST X v 10.5.0. The spatial distribution, evolutionary history, viral ancestral introductions, and geographic dispersal patterns were characterized. Results: Three major lineages following WHO nomenclature were identified: Alpha, Delta, and Omicron. The Delta variant exhibited the widest geographic spread, detected in 14 states, while the Alpha variant was the least distributed, identified in only eight states but present across most epidemiological weeks studied. Evolutionary rates varied slightly, with Alpha exhibiting the slowest rate (2.66 × 10 −4 substitutions/site/year). Viral population analyses showed distinct patterns: Omicron sustained elevated population growth over time, while Delta declined after initial expansion. The earliest Times to Most Recent Common Ancestor (TMRCA) were consistent with the earliest outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2 globally. Geographic transmission analysis indicated a predominant coastal-to-inland spread for all variants, with Omicron showing the most diffuse dispersal, highlighting commercial routes as significant drivers of viral diffusion. Conclusion: The SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Nigeria was characterized by multiple variant introductions and a dominant coastal-to-inland spread, emphasizing that despite lockdown measures, commercial trade routes played a critical role in viral dissemination. These findings provide insights into pandemic control strategies and future outbreak preparedness.

Nigeria↗
DOE OSTI2023

Emissions minimization on road networks via Generic Second Order Models

In this paper we consider the problem of estimating emissions due to vehicular traffic on complex networks, and minimizing their effect by regulating traffic at junctions. For the traffic evolution, we consider a Generic Second Order Model, which encompasses the majority of two-equations (i.e., second-order) models available in the literature, and extend it to road networks with merge and diverge junctions. The dynamics on the whole network is determined by selecting a solution to the Riemann Problems at junctions, i.e., the Cauchy problems with constant initial data on each incident road. The latter are solved by assuming the maximization of the flow and assigning a traffic distribution coefficient for outgoing roads of diverges, and a priority rule for incoming roads of merges. A general emission model is considered and its parameters are tuned to the $ {\mathrm{NO_{x}}} $ emission rate. The minimization of emissions is then formulated in terms of the traffic distribution and priority parameters, taking into account travel times. A comparison is provided between roundabouts with optimized parameters and traffic lights, which correspond to time-varying traffic priorities. Our approach can be adapted to manage traffic in complex networks in order to reduce emissions while keeping travel time at acceptable levels.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Land use-land cover gradient demonstrates the importance of perennial grasslands with intact soils for building soil carbon in the fertile Mollisols of the North Central US

The impact of land use change and agricultural management on the cycling of soil organic carbon (SOC) is not well understood, limiting our ability to manage for, and accurately model, soil carbon changes at both local and regional scales. To address this issue, here we combined long-term soil incubations with acid-hydrolysis and dry combustion to parse total SOC (C t ) into three operationally defined SOC pools (active, slow, and recalcitrant) from 9 long-term sites with varying land uses on current and former tallgrass prairie soil. Land uses represented a gradient of soil disturbance histories including remnant prairie, restored prairie, grazed pasture, annual crop rotations, and continuous maize. Dry combustion was used to estimate total carbon (C t , physical), while acid hydrolysis of both the active (C a ) and slow (C s ) pools was used to estimate a recalcitrant carbon pool (C r , chemical). Non-linear modeling of CO 2 efflux data from the long-term incubations was then used to estimate C a , and the decomposition rates of both C a and C s (k a and k r , biological). The size of the slow pools C s was then defined mathematically as C t- (C a + C r ). Remnant prairie had the highest C t , while cool-season pasture and a 35-y-old restored prairie had higher C t than the other agricultural systems. All agricultural systems, including pasture, had the highest fraction of C t as C r (~50%), whose mean residence time (MRT) in these soils is ≥500 years (Paul et al., 2001a) demonstrating that this fraction persists, while the more labile fractions were lost over the course of a few months (C a ) to a few decades (C s ) as a result of tillage-intensive agriculture. The two- to four-decade MRT time of C s indicated a pool likely to be more responsive to the 20 to 40 years of land-use practices used at some of the sites. The C s pool was largest in the remnant- and 35-y-old prairies indicating significant C accrual and stabilization compared to the agricultural ecosystems. Interestingly, the remnant prairie maintained the highest C a pool as well, demonstrating the strong connection between the quantity of fresh C inputs and the potential for long-term C stabilization and accrual. The accumulation of C in active (≈labile) pools as a first step toward long-term stabilization highlights the tenuous nature of early carbon gains, which can be quickly lost in response to climate change or poor management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Assessing First-Order Dependence of Thermolytic HGR on Glycolate at Low Glycolate Concentrations

This report describes the results of testing performed to investigate the assumed first-order behavior of glycolate at low concentrations in the current Glycolate Thermolytic Hydrogen Generation Rate (HGR) expression. Four experiments were performed at 100 °C using a simulant based on a Tank 28 supernate sample, and the glycolate concentration in the experiments ranged from 5 - 175 mg/L. The thermolytic HGR results from all tests were well-described by the current Glycolate Thermolytic HGR Model. A linear fit of the Ln(HGR) and Ln(Gly) gave a suggested reaction order of 1.15. Additionally, by taking into account prior knowledge on how varying chemistry impacts the HGR, a reaction order of 0.99 was obtained. Both cases suggest that the data validates the assumed first-order dependence of HGR on glycolate.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2021

Changes in Annual Extremes of Daily Temperature and Precipitation in CMIP6 Models

This study presents an analysis of daily temperature and precipitation extremes with return periods ranging from 2 to 50 years in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) multimodel ensemble of simulations. Judged by similarity with reanalyses, the new-generation models simulate the present-day temperature and precipitation extremes reasonably well. In line with previous CMIP simulations, the new simulations continue to project a large-scale picture of more frequent and more intense hot temperature extremes and precipitation extremes and vanishing cold extremes under continued global warming. Changes in temperature extremes outpace changes in global annual mean surface air temperature (GSAT) over most landmasses, while changes in precipitation extremes follow changes in GSAT globally at roughly the Clausius–Clapeyron rate of ~7% °C –1 . Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes normalized with respect to GSAT do not depend strongly on the choice of forcing scenario or model climate sensitivity, and do not vary strongly over time, but with notable regional variations. Over the majority of land regions, the projected intensity increases and relative frequency increases tend to be larger for more extreme hot temperature and precipitation events than for weaker events. To obtain robust estimates of these changes at local scales, large initial-condition ensemble simulations are needed. Appropriate spatial pooling of data from neighboring grid cells within individual simulations can, to some extent, reduce the needed ensemble size.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

UAE6 - Wind Tunnel Tests Data - UAE6 - Sequence Q - Raw Data

Sequence Q: Dynamic Inflow (P) This sequence was designed to characterize the dynamic inflow variation using the five-hole probes that extend upwind of the leading edge of the blade. This test sequence used an upwind, rigid turbine with a 0° cone angle. The wind speeds ranged from 5 m/s to 15 m/s, and data were collected at a 0° yaw angle. The rotor rotated at 72 RPM. Blade and probe pressure measurements were collected. The teeter dampers were replaced with rigid links, and these two channels were flagged as not applicable by setting the measured values in the data file to -99999.99 Nm. The teeter link load cell was pretensioned to 40,000 N. The blade pitch angle was changed from the initial tip pitch angle to the final tip pitch angle at the maximum rate of 67°/s. This angle was maintained for the specified delay time duration. Then the blade was pitched back to the initial pitch angle and held for the specified hold time. This was repeated 20 times. The campaign at 15 m/s was aborted early due to excessive low-speed shaft torque loads. The file length varied depending on the time required to obtain 20 pitch cycles for the specified range of angles. The name convention was the standard format, except for the short campaigns collected to ascertain the functionality of the instrumentation. These points were collected at a 3° pitch angle and use the characters REF in the four digits that normally represent yaw angle.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quantification of Cas9 binding and cleavage across diverse guide sequences maps landscapes of target engagement

The RNA-guided nuclease Cas9 has unlocked powerful methods for perturbing both the genome through targeted DNA cleavage and the regulome through targeted DNA binding, but limited biochemical data have hampered efforts to quantitatively model sequence perturbation of target binding and cleavage across diverse guide sequences. We present scalable, sequencing-based platforms for high-throughput filter binding and cleavage and then perform 62,444 quantitative binding and cleavage assays on 35,047 on- and off-target DNA sequences across 90 Cas9 ribonucleoproteins (RNPs) loaded with distinct guide RNAs. We observe that binding and cleavage efficacy, as well as specificity, vary substantially across RNPs; canonically studied guides often have atypically high specificity; sequence context surrounding the target modulates Cas9 on-rate; and Cas9 RNPs may sequester targets in nonproductive states that contribute to “proofreading” capability. Lastly, we distill our findings into an interpretable biophysical model that predicts changes in binding and cleavage for diverse target sequence perturbations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Designing optimal experiments: an application to proton Compton scattering

Interpreting measurements requires a physical theory, but the theory’s accuracy may vary across the experimental domain. To optimize experimental design, and so to ensure that the substantial resources necessary for modern experiments are focused on acquiring the most valuable data, both the theory uncertainty and the expected pattern of experimental errors must be considered. We develop a Bayesian approach to this problem, and apply it to the example of proton Compton scattering. Chiral Effective Field Theory (χEFT) predicts the functional form of the scattering amplitude for this reaction, so that the electromagnetic polarizabilities of the nucleon can be inferred from data. With increasing photon energy, both experimental rates and sensitivities to polarizabilities increase, but the accuracy of χEFT decreases. Our physics-based model of χEFT truncation errors is combined with present knowledge of the polarizabilities and reasonable assumptions about experimental capabilities at HI γ S and MAMI to assess the information gain from measuring specific observables at specific kinematics, i.e. to determine the relative amount by which new data are apt to shrink uncertainties. The strongest gains would likely come from new data on the spin observables Σ 2x and Σ 2x' at ω≃140 to 200 MeV and 40° to 120°. These would tightly constrain γ E1E1 –γ E1M2 . New data on the differential cross section between 100 and 200 MeV and over a wide angle range will substantially improve constraints on α E1 –β M1 , γ π and γ M1M1 –γ M1E2 . Good signals also exist around 160 MeV for Σ 3 and Σ 2z' . As a result, such data will be pivotal in the continuing quest to pin down the scalar polarizabilities and refine understanding of the spin polarizabilities.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Comparison of Machine Learning Methods of Association Tested on Dense Nodal Arrays

The association of phase picks to form events is one of the fundamental components of seismology. Large and dense sensor networks, such as >1000 geophone arrays (and distributed acoustic sensing), offer unique challenges in association due to the vast numbers of observations and high likelihood of errant picks. In addition, the large number of stations can greatly increase the time it takes to perform the association. For this reason, machine learning (ML) methods might provide a more optimal method of association for such networks. In this work, we examine how well ML methods (e.g., Gaussian mixture model association, PhaseLink, and Graph Earthquake Neural Interpretation Engine) can incorporate dense seismic arrays into regional networks and how well they handle the increasing numbers of stations. Here, we test their capabilities on two dense seismic deployments, one within Rock Valley Nevada (52 nodes and a 9-station sparse local network), and the LArge-n Seismic Survey in Oklahoma dense nodal array (>1800 vertical-component geophones). Processing data from these two different styles of dense seismic deployments allows testing of how the ML algorithms can merge array data with a broader regional network, how they deal with poorly picked phases, and how they handle anthropogenic noise. We compare the ML-associated bulletins to those obtained using the Rapid Earthquake Association and Location algorithm, a more traditional method of association. We find that there are very small differences in results between the methods for small networks (<100 stations) with low pick rates. For large networks (>1000), there are enough errant picks that some of the ML methods start to create false events out of noise. We also find that the ML methods vary in computation time significantly but are all faster than the traditional method tested here.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evaluating Production Implications of Pressure Maintenance in Unconventional Oil and Gas Wells using a Machine Learning Modeling Approach: Case Study in the Permian Basin

This study implements the proprietary machine learning-based model (model) developed under the 2022 study titled “Evaluating the Impact of Proprietary Oil & Gas Data on Machine Learning Model Performance Using a Quasi-Experimental Analytical Approach” for forecasting unconventional oil and gas production using well data from the Permian Basin. The model, developed using an exclusive dataset that includes time series production data from an operator in the Permian Basin, is designed to jointly predict daily oil, gas, and water production for horizontal wells as a function of bottomhole pressure drawdown, spatial placement across the study domain, and well-completion attributes. In this study, the model was explicitly applied to explore its utility to evaluate the impact of varying drawdown strategies on the production forecast of a well in the Permian Basin dataset. Managing pressure drawdown has been identified as a way to improve estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) from unconventional shale wells due to the stress-dependent nature of fractures in shale reservoirs. Research has shown that applying a lower pressure drawdown helps to maintain the reservoir conductivity, resulting in higher productivity over the life of a well. Historic bottomhole pressure data from the well over time was used as a benchmark from which to set more and less aggressive pressure decline rates as bounding modeling cases. All pressure decline rates/strategies were forecasted over 5 years, and the model was used to generate oil, water, and gas prediction over the same timeframe. This report presents the results from the production forecast and discusses potential operational and economic implications, with contrasting perspectives between well productivity and profitability given typical oil and gas economics and the volatility in the oil and gas market.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2025

Computer-Based Procedures Among Older Adults: Findings from the Rancor Microworld Simulator

As with many industries worldwide, nuclear energy is experiencing an aging workforce; older than other energy sources and the national average. For example, while almost one in three nuclear industry professionals are 55+ years, for oil and gas that number is one in five. The challenges brought about by an aging workforce are one of the industry’s top concerns. However, the industry lacks for empirical research that examines the effects of developmental aging in older workers, as well as the interactions between aging and new digital technologies. We present the results of an experiment that tested three different computer-based procedures in a sample of 30 older adults (55+ years). While the industry has traditionally relied on paper-based procedures, these are being modernized by digital technology. Participants were randomly assigned to one of three procedure-types that varied by the level of digitalization, based on the IEEE Standard-1786. Type 1 essentially represents a digital representation of a paper-based procedure, Type 2 adds embedded indicators, and Type 3 adds soft controls. Participants performed two different operational scenarios (startup and loss of feedwater) on a simplified nuclear power plant simulator. Results revealed a weak signal that Type 2 may produce lower workload and lower completion times in some instances. However, there were no significant effects of procedure-type across any other outcomes, including simulator log data, situation awareness, and preference ratings. We discuss our findings in terms of optimal levels of digitalization/automation for an aging nuclear workforce and suggest pathways for future directions.

46 - INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AN↗