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DOE OSTI2021

Explaining and predicting human behavior and social dynamics in simulated virtual worlds: reproducibility, generalizability, and robustness of causal discovery methods

Ground Truth program was designed to evaluate social science modeling approaches using simulation test beds with ground truth intentionally and systematically embedded to understand and model complex Human Domain systems and their dynamics Lazer et al. (Science 369:1060–1062, 2020). Our multidisciplinary team of data scientists, statisticians, experts in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and visual analytics had a unique role on the program to investigate accuracy, reproducibility, generalizability, and robustness of the state-of-the-art (SOTA) causal structure learning approaches applied to fully observed and sampled simulated data across virtual worlds. In addition, we analyzed the feasibility of using machine learning models to predict future social behavior with and without causal knowledge explicitly embedded. In this paper, we first present our causal modeling approach to discover the causal structure of four virtual worlds produced by the simulation teams—Urban Life, Financial Governance, Disaster and Geopolitical Conflict. Our approach adapts the state-of-the-art causal discovery (including ensemble models), machine learning, data analytics, and visualization techniques to allow a human-machine team to reverse-engineer the true causal relations from sampled and fully observed data. We next present our reproducibility analysis of two research methods team’s performance using a range of causal discovery models applied to both sampled and fully observed data, and analyze their effectiveness and limitations. We further investigate the generalizability and robustness to sampling of the SOTA causal discovery approaches on additional simulated datasets with known ground truth. Our results reveal the limitations of existing causal modeling approaches when applied to large-scale, noisy, high-dimensional data with unobserved variables and unknown relationships between them. We show that the SOTA causal models explored in our experiments are not designed to take advantage from vasts amounts of data and have difficulty recovering ground truth when latent confounders are present; they do not generalize well across simulation scenarios and are not robust to sampling; they are vulnerable to data and modeling assumptions, and therefore, the results are hard to reproduce. Finally, when we outline lessons learned and provide recommendations to improve models for causal discovery and prediction of human social behavior from observational data, we highlight the importance of learning data to knowledge representations or transformations to improve causal discovery and describe the benefit of causal feature selection for predictive and prescriptive modeling.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Knowledge graph-aided Bayesian active learning for top- K genetic interaction discovery

In silico methods for predicting the effects of multi-gene perturbations hold great promise for advancing functional genomics, computational drug discovery, and disease modeling. However, the development of these predictive algorithms for mammalian systems has been hampered by limited datasets and high experimental costs. In this study, we present a Bayesian active learning framework designed to discover pairwise host gene knockdowns that effectively inhibit viral proliferation in an in vitro HIV-1 infection model. Our method leverages a biological knowledge graph as side information and employs a computationally efficient batch diversification approach. We evaluated this framework using a dataset of viral load measurements obtained from multi-day dual-gene depletion experiments, encompassing all possible pairwise knockdowns of over 350 host genes associated with HIV infection. We demonstrate that our framework rapidly identifies the most effective gene knockdown pairs for reducing viral load. Furthermore, we show that incorporating side information enhances performance during the early stages of active learning (low data regime), while our batch diversification strategy significantly boosts performance in later stages (high data regime). This framework is general and can be adapted to explore gene interactions in other contexts, such as synthetic lethality prediction and mapping epistatic effects across quantitative trait loci.

Computational biology and bioinformatics↗

DOE OSTI2021

Considerations regarding the Use of Computer Vision Machine Learning in Safety-Related or Risk-Significant Applications in Nuclear Power Plants

With the advancements made to date in the field of artificial intelligence (AI), significant potential exists to utilize AI capabilities for nuclear power plant (NPP) applications. AI can replicate human decision making and it is usually faster and more accurate than humans. For implementations that impact critical NPP applications (e.g., safety-related or non-safety systems that potentially affect overall plant risk), a deeper safety analysis of the AI methods is necessary. AI applied to NPP operations could resemble the use of digital I&C (DI&C) because such applications involve digital computer hardware and custom-designed software that input plant data, execute complex software algorithms, and output the results to a system or licensed human operator to potentially provoke an action. For AI methods to be compliant with current safety requirements for DI&C, AI compatibility must be evaluated, and AI-related gaps may exist that prevent the prompt deployment of AI in NPPs. This effort aims to evaluate how example AI technologies align with the DI&C safety framework, and discusses how they could be analyzed, modeled, tested, and validated in a manner similar to typical DI&C technologies. Because AI is a broad field that encompasses areas such as machine learning (ML), natural language processing, and computer vision, this research focused on a subset of methods categorized as the computer vision ML (CVML) methods. This report explores two CVML use cases, gauge reading and fire watch, considered relevant to the DI&C standards, as they could play a safety-critical role. For the gauge reading use case, a CVML-enabled technology that can read gauges at oblique angles is utilized. For the fire watch use case, a CVML-enabled technology is utilized that migrates fire watch from a manual (human) approach to automated fire detection. These use cases are mainly intended to give context to the CVML system discussion. This effort assumes the worst-case scenario, with the CVML system being used to replace a safety-related or risk-significant system, thus requiring evaluation. Evaluating CVML against most of the relevant safety requirements for DI&C yielded several CVML-specific considerations due to the uniqueness of its characteristics in comparison with typical DI&C systems. For example, CVML models often employ commonly used (open-source) datasets, and it is not always possible to determine the level of overlap among open-source datasets. Therefore, the independence of the developed CVML models when demonstrating diversity is questionable, therefore creating vulnerability to common cause failure (CCF). The design verification process is also impacted since the data overlap could result in overestimation of the software validation and verification (V&V) performance results. Section 2 of this report evaluates a list of the identified CVML-specific characteristics and discusses the resulting considerations and potential solutions in the context of each referenced requirement. A summation is provided in Section 3. This report is not to be used as a guideline. It was developed to identify and consider issues in the implementation of ML technologies used to augment activities that may have a bearing on plant operation. The report draws parallels to the use of DI&C technologies, for which many standards are available to guide their use in nuclear plant operation. It considers the technologies and some of the potential implications of their use in safety-related applications but is not intended to address regulatory or licensing related issues.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2023

Measurement of $$ {e}^{+}{e}^{-}\to p{K}^{-}\overline{\Lambda}+c.c. $$ cross sections between 4.009 GeV and 4.951 GeV

Abstract Usinge + e − collision datasets corresponding to a total integrated luminosity of 21.7 fb −1 collected with the BESIII detector at the BEPCII collider at center-of-mass energies ranging from 4.009 GeV to 4.951 GeV, the energy-dependent cross sections of$$ {e}^{+}{e}^{-}\to p{K}^{-}\overline{\Lambda}+c.c. $$ e + e − → p K − Λ ¯ + c . c . are measured for the first time. By fitting these energy-dependent cross sections, we search for the excitedψstatesψ(4160) andψ(4415), and the vector charmonium-like statesψ(4230),ψ(4360), andψ(4660). No evidence for these is observed and the upper limits on the branching fractions of these states decaying into$$ p{K}^{-}\overline{\Lambda}+c.c. $$ p K − Λ ¯ + c . c . are set at the 90% confidence level.

Physics↗

DOE OSTI2025

Observation of the decay ψ ( 3686 ) → Σ 0 Σ ¯ 0 ω

Using a dataset of ( 27.12 ± 0.14 ) × 10 8 ψ ( 3686 ) events collected by the BESIII detector operating at the BEPCII collider, we report the first observation of the decay ψ ( 3686 ) → Σ 0 Σ ¯ 0 ω with a statistical significance of 8.9 σ . The measured branching fraction is ( 1.24 ± 0.1 6 stat ± 0.1 1 sys ) × 10 − 5 , where the first uncertainty is statistical and the second is systematic. Additionally, we investigate potential intermediate states in the invariant mass distributions of Σ 0 ω , Σ ¯ 0 ω and Σ 0 Σ ¯ 0 . A hint of a resonance is observed in the invariant mass distribution of M Σ 0 ( Σ ¯ 0 ) ω , located around 2.06 GeV / c 2 , with a significance of 2.5 σ . Published by the American Physical Society 2025

Ablikim, M.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Measurement of the inclusive cross sections of prompt J / ψ and ψ ( 3686 ) production in e + e − annihilation from s = 3.808 to 4.951 GeV

The inclusive cross sections of prompt J / ψ and ψ ( 3686 ) production are measured at center-of-mass energies from 3.808 to 4.951 GeV. The dataset used is 22 fb − 1 of e + e − annihilation data collected with the BESIII detector operating at the BEPCII storage ring. The results obtained are in agreement with the previous BESIII measurements of exclusive J / ψ and ψ ( 3686 ) production. The average values obtained for the cross sections measured in the center-of-mass energy ranges from 4.527 to 4.951 GeV for J / ψ and from 4.843 to 4.951 GeV for ψ ( 3686 ) , where the impact of known resonances is negligible, are 14.0 ± 1.7 ± 3.1 pb and 15.3 ± 3.0 pb , respectively. For J / ψ , the first and the second uncertainties are statistical and systematic, respectively. For ψ ( 3686 ) , the uncertainty is total. These values are useful for testing charmonium production models. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

Ablikim, M.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Accuracy versus precision in boosted top tagging with the ATLAS detector

The identification of top quark decays where the top quark has a large momentum transverse to the beam axis, known as top tagging , is a crucial component in many measurements of Standard Model processes and searches for beyond the Standard Model physics at the Large Hadron Collider. Machine learning techniques have improved the performance of top tagging algorithms, but the size of the systematic uncertainties for all proposed algorithms has not been systematically studied. This paper presents the performance of several machine learning based top tagging algorithms on a dataset constructed from simulated proton-proton collision events measured with the ATLAS detector at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV. The systematic uncertainties associated with these algorithms are estimated through an approximate procedure that is not meant to be used in a physics analysis, but is appropriate for the level of precision required for this study. The most performant algorithms are found to have the largest uncertainties, motivating the development of methods to reduce these uncertainties without compromising performance. To enable such efforts in the wider scientific community, the datasets used in this paper are made publicly available.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Harnessing large language models’ zero-shot and few-shot learning capabilities for regulatory research

Abstract Large language models (LLMs) are sophisticated AI-driven models trained on vast sources of natural language data. They are adept at generating responses that closely mimic human conversational patterns. One of the most notable examples is OpenAI's ChatGPT, which has been extensively used across diverse sectors. Despite their flexibility, a significant challenge arises as most users must transmit their data to the servers of companies operating these models. Utilizing ChatGPT or similar models online may inadvertently expose sensitive information to the risk of data breaches. Therefore, implementing LLMs that are open source and smaller in scale within a secure local network becomes a crucial step for organizations where ensuring data privacy and protection has the highest priority, such as regulatory agencies. As a feasibility evaluation, we implemented a series of open-source LLMs within a regulatory agency’s local network and assessed their performance on specific tasks involving extracting relevant clinical pharmacology information from regulatory drug labels. Our research shows that some models work well in the context of few- or zero-shot learning, achieving performance comparable, or even better than, neural network models that needed thousands of training samples. One of the models was selected to address a real-world issue of finding intrinsic factors that affect drugs' clinical exposure without any training or fine-tuning. In a dataset of over 700 000 sentences, the model showed a 78.5% accuracy rate. Our work pointed to the possibility of implementing open-source LLMs within a secure local network and using these models to perform various natural language processing tasks when large numbers of training examples are unavailable.

Biochemistry & Molecular Biology↗

DOE OSTI2024

Performance Comparison of Machine Learning Models for Ultrasonic Nondestructive Evaluation of Alkali-Silica Reaction in Concrete

Alkali-silica reaction (ASR) causes concrete degradation, leading to cracking, rebar corrosion, and reduced structural integrity, which raises safety concerns. Ultrasonic nondestructive evaluation (NDE) effectively assesses concrete properties and monitors ASR progression. However, its deployment and analysis require specialized expertise and subjective interpretation. As computational power increases, artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) algorithms are increasingly being used to automate NDE data analysis across various industries for AI-assisted automation. Regulatory agencies are adapting to this technological shift, prompting a need to evaluate current ML technologies’ capabilities and limitations in assessing concrete material properties and damage. This report presents a comparative analysis of four ML regression models for predicting concrete material damage induced by ASR expansion using long-term ultrasonic data monitoring. The models investigated include linear regression (LR), support vector regression (SVR), shallow neural networks (NN), and deep neural networks (DNN). LR, SVR, and shallow NN models use features extracted from ultrasonic signals, whereas the DNN model processes time-domain ultrasonic signals and frequency spectra directly. The study systematically compared the models’ performance from various perspectives, including model input, prediction performance, and generalization ability. The findings indicate significant variability in model performance, with some ML algorithms achieving very high or very low prediction accuracy depending on the preprocessing and feature engineering (extraction and selection) applied. Key insights include the observation that shallow ML models (LR, SVR, and shallow NNs) require meticulous preprocessing and feature extraction to achieve high accuracy. In contrast, the DNN model, although it bypasses the need for feature engineering, necessitates extensive preprocessing to mitigate noise and computational demands. The SVR model emerged as the top performer among the shallow models, and the DNN model exhibited superior performance on specific datasets but struggled with generalization across specimens from different batches. Additionally, the SVR model is sensitive to temperature variations, whereas the DNN model is robust in this regard. Using recurrent neural networks is recommended for future ASR expansion prediction studies. Recurrent neural networks’ inherent ability to capture temporal dependencies and long-term patterns makes them well suited for analyzing sequential ultrasonic monitoring data. Overall, the results and conclusions of this study could provide insights into the capabilities and effectiveness of ML when applied to ultrasonic NDE data and help identify best practices for using ML for ultrasonic NDE of concrete material properties.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Timeseries Photos of a Variably Inundated Stream: Umtanum Creek, Washington, United States

This dataset is associated with a broader study using game camera timeseries photos collected to evaluate stream variable inundation via changes in width (i.e. wet fraction). Four game cameras were deployed along Umtanum Creek (Washington, United States) to track changes in stream inundation over time. Drone imagery was collected at the same location on October 18, 2024 which was used to construct a digital elevation model (DEM) of the streambed topography. The associated paper and data can be found at https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2025.106715 (Bao et al., 2025a)) and https://doi.org/10.15485/2589885 (Bao et al., 2025b), respectively. For details on how to navigate data packages generated by this project, see https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/portals/PNNLRiverCorridorSFA/About. In addition to this readme, this data package also includes a file-level metadata (FLMD) files that describes each file and a data dictionaries (DD) that describe all column/row headers and variable definitions. This dataset is comprised of (1) file-level metadata; (2) data dictionary; (3) readme; (4) field metadata; (5) field protocol; and (5) folders containing game camera photos. Game camera photos are organized into folders for each camera (CDL, CUL, CDR, CUR; see readme for information on camera naming) by the month photos were collected. All files are .csv, .jpg, or .pdf.

AI image segmentation↗

DOE OSTI2019

Electron and photon performance measurements with the ATLAS detector using the 2015–2017 LHC proton-proton collision data

This paper describes the reconstruction of electrons and photons with the ATLAS detector, as employed for measurements and searches exploiting the complete LHC Run 2 dataset. An improved energy clustering algorithm is introduced, and its implications for the measurement and identification of electrons and photons are discussed in detail. Corrections and calibrations that affect performance, including energy calibration, identification and isolation efficiencies, and the measurement of the charge of reconstructed electron candidates are determined using up to 81 fb -1 of proton-proton collision data collected at $\sqrt{s}=$ 13 TeV between 2015 and 2017.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Timeseries Unlabeled and Labeled Photos, Modeled Stream Elevation, and (Meta)Data of Variably Inundated Streams Across The Yakima River Basin, Washington, United States (v2)

This dataset is associated with the “River Monitoring Photos” (RMP) study and subsequent manuscript (Bao et al. 2025. Monitoring river flow status using low-cost wildlife camera and image segmentation artificial intelligence doi: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2025.106715). Game camera timeseries photos were collected to evaluate stream variable inundation via changes in width. A subset of photos was labeled for training the YOLOv8 and Mask2Former models and used to segment water surface fractions from all the game camera photos.This data package was originally published in March 2024. It was updated in October 2025 (v2) to add additional photos and files associated with the manuscript (i.e., processed data, labeled photos, and trained models). For details on how to navigate data packages generated by this project, see https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/portals/PNNLRiverCorridorSFA/About.In addition to a readme, this data package also includes two file-level metadata (FLMD) files that describes each file and two data dictionaries (DD) that describe all column/row headers and variable definitions. This dataset is comprised of (1) file-level metadata; (2) data dictionary; (3) readme; (4) field metadata; and (5) folders containing game camera photos and manuscript-associated files. Each Yakima River Basin site has a folder that contains subfolders for each month photos were collected. There is also a folder for files associated with the manuscript which has subfolders for labeled data, trained models, Yakima River Basin site water surface fractions, and USGS site water surface fractions. All files are .csv, .json, .txt, .yaml, .pth, .pt, or .pdf. We thank the Confederated Tribes and Bands of the Yakama Nation Tribal Council and Yakama Nation Fisheries for working with us to facilitate sample collection and optimization of data usage according to their values and worldview.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Celestial Mapping System and Digital Lunar Library Initiative

We are preparing to create an interactive, global 3D lunar environment with integrated dataset and AI/ML tools to provide unique value to mission planners, scientists and the entire lunar community. This lunar environment will be based on NASA Ames Celestial Mapping System (CMS) [1] and Digital Lunar Library (DLL) Initiative. CMS provides a 3D virtual Lunar Globe with extensive user friendly tool sets, that include high resolution terrain visualization, elevation profiles, measurement kits, slope analysis, path optimization, line of sight analysis, equipment planning and placement tools and many other functionalities [1]. It has a thick client with less overhead to access hardware resources. This allows features such as terrain profiling and distance calculations to be performed on the client and on the fly. The application is developed to provide situational and domain awareness on the Lunar surface, planning capabilities for equipment placements and traverse path optimization. As data becomes available, CMS has the capabilities to integrate data sets that change dynamically in real-time, which will be useful for monitoring satellites and remotely-sensed data on the Lunar surface. CMS supports importing synthetic features in a variety of 3D, 2D, vector and raster formats. In the future, these capabilities will be enhanced by incorporating AI/ML tools and a plug-in architecture to enable customization by the user groups. With the help of DLL we will be able to : 1) Amplify the value of lunar information with AI-powered data enhancements 2) Acquire and integrate lunar data with AI-assisted georectification and homogenization 3) Analyze lunar data with advanced 3D visualization, intelligent search-by-example 4) Apply lunar data insights to specific use cases with an open plug-in architecture. The CMS-DLL initiative will have several potential use cases for NASA and the lunar community in general, including subsurface lava tube visualization and analysis, soil analysis, in-situ lunar resource visualization and representation on 3D globe, and data analytics for utilization. REFERENCES: [1] https://celestial.arc.nasa.gov/

3D Globe↗

DOE OSTI2025

Adiabatic quantum support vector machines

Adiabatic quantum computers can solve difficult optimization problems (e.g., the quadratic unconstrained binary optimization problem), and they seem well suited to train machine learning models. In this paper, we describe an adiabatic quantum approach for training support vector machines. We show that the time complexity of our quantum approach is an order of magnitude better than the classical approach. Next, we compare the test accuracy of our quantum approach against a classical approach that uses the Scikit-learn library in Python across five benchmark datasets (Iris, Wisconsin Breast Cancer (WBC), Wine, Digits, and Lambeq). We show that our quantum approach obtains accuracies on par with the classical approach. Finally, we perform a scalability study in which we compute the total training times of the quantum approach and the classical approach with an increasing number of features and an increasing number of data points in the training dataset. In conclusion, our scalability results show that the quantum approach obtains a 3.5–4.5x speedup over the classical approach on datasets with many (millions of) features.

Computational Complexity↗

DOE OSTI2025

Exploring the energy landscape of RBMs: reciprocal space insights into bosons, hierarchical learning and symmetry breaking

Deep generative models have become ubiquitous due to their ability to learn and sample from complex distributions. Despite the proliferation of various frameworks, the relationships among these models remain largely unexplored, a gap that hinders the development of a unified theory of AI learning. In this work, we address two central challenges: clarifying the connections between different deep generative models and deepening our understanding of their learning mechanisms. We focus on Restricted Boltzmann Machines (RBMs), a class of generative models known for their universal approximation capabilities for discrete distributions. By introducing a reciprocal space formulation for RBMs, we reveal a connection between these models, diffusion processes, and systems of coupled bosons. Our analysis shows that at initialization, the RBM operates at a saddle point, where the local curvature is determined by the singular values of the weight matrix, whose distribution follows the Marc̆enko-Pastur law and exhibits rotational symmetry. During training, this rotational symmetry is broken due to hierarchical learning, where different degrees of freedom progressively capture features at multiple levels of abstraction. This leads to a symmetry breaking in the energy landscape, reminiscent of Landau’s theory. This symmetry breaking in the energy landscape is characterized by the singular values and the weight matrix eigenvector matrix. We derive the corresponding free energy in a mean-field approximation. We show that in the limit of infinite size RBM, the reciprocal variables are Gaussian distributed. Our findings indicate that in this regime, there will be some modes for which the diffusion process will not converge to the Boltzmann distribution. To illustrate our results, we trained replicas of RBMs with different hidden layer sizes using the MNIST dataset. Our findings not only bridge the gap between disparate generative frameworks but also shed light on the fundamental processes underpinning learning in deep generative models.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

High School Citizen Scientists Use AI/ML to Predict Intra-Ocular Pressure From Gene Expression Data for Spaceflown Mice

Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) have increasingly become pivotal in biological and biomedical research, largely due to the culture of open data sharing and its associated benefits. The methodologies inherent in AI/ML are particularly adept at identifying and forecasting biological phenotypes from the vast amounts of data generated by next-generation sequencing technologies. These techniques offer substantial promise for advancing research in space biosciences and for the development of automated systems for monitoring space health. Nevertheless, there are crucial aspects to consider when training, validating, and testing machine learning models in both biological research and clinical contexts. It is essential that Open Science principles, including data sharing and the availability of open-source code, are complemented by high-quality, publicly accessible training resources. These resources should focus on best practices and include modules based on real-world scientific cases and data to ensure that future AI/ML practitioners gain practical experience with genuine problems. Addressing this knowledge gap, we have designed, developed, and delivered both interactive and self-paced training programs for citizen scientists worldwide, enabling them to utilize AI/ML for space biology research. This initiative was made possible through generous funding from a Transformation to Open Science Training grant. The interactive training sessions, conducted this summer, utilized AI/ML techniques to analyze data from the Open Science Data Repository, specifically targeting the effects of spaceflight on ocular structure and function. The dataset OSD-583, from the Rodent Research 9 mission, provides experimental data detailing the ocular responses of mice subjected to a 35-day spaceflight, compared with ground control counterparts. Using OSD-583 as observational data, our summer training participants applied AI/ML methods to predict intraocular pressure from RNA-seq data and identify the genes most predictive of the observed responses. Further analysis through pathway enrichment and gene set enrichment revealed that these genes are involved in molecular and cellular processes contributing to retinal degeneration.

James Casaletto↗

DOE OSTI2020

Reconstruction and identification of boosted di-τ systems in a search for Higgs boson pairs using 13 TeV proton-proton collision data in ATLAS

In this paper, a new technique for reconstructing and identifying hadronically decaying τ+τ- pairs with a large Lorentz boost, referred to as the di-τ tagger, is developed and used for the first time in the ATLAS experiment at the Large Hadron Collider. A benchmark di-τ tagging selection is employed in the search for resonant Higgs boson pair production, where one Higgs boson decays into a boosted $b\overline b$ pair and the other into a boosted τ+τ- pair, with two hadronically decaying τ-leptons in the final state. Using 139 fb -1 of proton-proton collision data recorded at a centre-of-mass energy of 13 TeV, the efficiency of the di-τ tagger is determined and the background with quark- or gluon-initiated jets misidentified as di-τ objects is estimated. The search for a heavy, narrow, scalar resonance produced via gluon-gluon fusion and decaying into two Higgs bosons is carried out in the mass range 1–3 TeV using the same dataset. No deviations from the Standard Model predictions are observed, and 95% confidence-level exclusion limits are set on this model.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Evaluating Meteorological Dust Events and Machine-Learning Based Dust Identification in Geostationary Satellite Imagery

NASA scientists in the Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center (SPoRT) developed a physically-based machine learning approach to identify dust in satellite imagery with a focus on night-time dust detection (Berndt et al. 201; DustTracker-AI). NASA/NOAA Geostationary Environmental Operational Satellite-16 (GOES-16) imagery was used for training and model inputs. The training, testing and validation data set consists of 28 events in the Southwest United States, capturing dust and null events in the region from 2018-2020.With 83 distinct images and millions of pixels a random forest model was trained and validated, correctly labeling 85% of dust pixels.For the first time, the model was run in near-real time production during the spring of 2022 and dust probability visualizations were made available to NOAA National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters to assess its utility for dust forecasting. Results indicated the model helped increase the confidence in the presence of dust and enabled dust tracking for a longer period of time into the night-time hours. Forecaster assessment and running the model in near real-time allowed for the team to determine the types of events missed, captured, and false alarms. To gain additional context on model performance,the SPoRT team sought to gather more detailed information on the training database(e.g., meteorological characteristics and drivers). The goal of this project was to identify the meteorological drivers for the dust events and create a database which synthesized information from observations, forecaster discussions, and analyses pertaining to the dust events to understand the types of events currently used to train the model. A more detailed meteorological synopsis was created for each dust event in the training, testing, and validation datasets. Following the completion of the database and documentation, the classification details revealed that 88% of the dust events were synoptically driven while mesoscale events were less prevalent in model datasets. Meteorological conditions found such as mixing layer depth and wind velocity had mean values of 645mb and 21kt respectively.With conditions of deep mixed layers and moderate to strong surface winds a mesoscale thunderstorm outflow event was considered and subsequently added to the model training data set to test the impact of additional mesoscale training data. The model was retrained and then qualitatively tested on a sample thunderstorm outflow case that the original model was unable to identify. Preliminary results showed potential that the addition of more mesoscale events included in the training data could help to better identify indistinct and localized dust events.

Connor Welch↗