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NASA NTRS2014

Nondestructive Analysis of Apollo Samples by Micro-CT and Micro-XRF Analysis: A PET Style Examination

An integral part of any sample return mission is the initial description and classification of returned samples by the preliminary examination team (PET). The goal of a PET is to characterize and classify the returned samples, making this information available to the general research community who can then conduct more in-depth studies on the samples. A PET strives to minimize the impact their work has on the sample suite, which often limits the PET work to largely visual measurements and observations like optical microscopy. More modern techniques can also be utilized by future PET to nondestructively characterize astromaterials in a more rigorous way. Here we present our recent analyses of Apollo samples 14321 and 14305 by micro-CT and micro-XRF (respectively), assess the potential for discovery of "new" Apollo samples for scientific study, and evaluate the usefulness of these techniques in future PET efforts.

Zeigler, Ryan A.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Peak Pc Prediction in Conjunction Analysis: Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis

Satellite conjunction risk typically evaluated through the probability of collision (Pc). Considers both conjunction geometry and uncertainties in both state estimates. Conjunction events initially discovered through Joint Space Operations Center (JSpOC) screenings, usually seven days before Time of Closest Approach (TCA). However, JSpOC continues to track objects and issue conjunction updates. Changes in state estimate and reduced propagation time cause Pc to change as event develops. These changes a combination of potentially predictable development and unpredictable changes in state estimate covariance. Operationally useful datum: the peak Pc. If it can reasonably be inferred that the peak Pc value has passed, then risk assessment can be conducted against this peak value. If this value is below remediation level, then event intensity can be relaxed. Can the peak Pc location be reasonably predicted?

Operations↗
NASA NTRS2017

Methods for Probabilistic Uncertainty Analysis and Bayesian Analysis with Examples of Statistically Analyzing Data to Revise MMOD Risk Estimates and Compare Models

Probabilistic methods are presented for characterizing and quantifying uncertainties in models and model predictions. Techniques are given for constructing specific uncertainty distributions based on available information. Alternative techniques are given for propagating uncertainties in model inputs to obtain the uncertainty in the model result or prediction. Bayesian techniques are also described for utilizing data and information to update and revise model results and predictions. The focus is on applications with numerous specific examples given. The use of data to revise Micrometeoroid and Orbital Debris (MMOD) risk prediction models are among the examples given.

Risk↗
NASA NTRS2000

Supporting Scientific Analysis within Collaborative Problem Solving Environments

Collaborative problem solving environments for scientists should contain the analysis tools the scientists require in addition to the remote collaboration tools used for general communication. Unfortunately, most scientific analysis tools have been designed for a "stand-alone mode" and cannot be easily modified to work well in a collaborative environment. This paper addresses the questions, "What features are desired in a scientific analysis tool contained within a collaborative environment?", "What are the tool design criteria needed to provide these features?", and "What support is required from the architecture to support these design criteria?." First, the features of scientific analysis tools that are important for effective analysis in collaborative environments are listed. Next, several design criteria for developing analysis tools that will provide these features are presented. Then requirements for the architecture to support these design criteria are listed. Sonic proposed architectures for collaborative problem solving environments are reviewed and their capabilities to support the specified design criteria are discussed. A deficiency in the most popular architecture for remote application sharing, the ITU T. 120 architecture, prevents it from supporting highly interactive, dynamic, high resolution graphics. To illustrate that the specified design criteria can provide a highly effective analysis tool within a collaborative problem solving environment, a scientific analysis tool that contains the specified design criteria has been integrated into a collaborative environment and tested for effectiveness. The tests were conducted in collaborations between remote sites in the US and between remote sites on different continents. The tests showed that the tool (a tool for the visual analysis of computer simulations of physics) was highly effective for both synchronous and asynchronous collaborative analyses. The important features provided by the tool (and made possible by the specified design criteria) are: 1. The tool provides highly interactive, dynamic, high resolution, 3D graphics. 2. All remote scientists can view the same dynamic, high resolution, 3D scenes of the analysis as the analysis is being conducted. 3. The responsiveness of the tool is nearly identical to the responsiveness of the tool in a stand-alone mode. 4. The scientists can transfer control of the analysis between themselves. 5. Any analysis session or segment of an analysis session, whether done individually or collaboratively, can be recorded and posted on the Web for other scientists or students to download and play in either a collaborative or individual mode. 6. The scientist or student who downloaded the session can, individually or collaboratively, modify or extend the session with his/her own "what if" analysis of the data and post his/her version of the analysis back onto the Web. 7. The peak network bandwidth used in the collaborative sessions is only 1K bit/second even though the scientists at all sites are viewing high resolution (1280 x 1024 pixels), dynamic, 3D scenes of the analysis. The links between the specified design criteria and these performance features are presented.

Watson, Velvin R.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Strategic Analysis Overview

NASA s Constellation Program employs a strategic analysis methodology in providing an integrated analysis capability of Lunar exploration scenarios and to support strategic decision-making regarding those scenarios. The strategic analysis methodology integrates the assessment of the major contributors to strategic objective satisfaction performance, affordability, and risk and captures the linkages and feedbacks between all three components. Strategic analysis supports strategic decision making by senior management through comparable analysis of alternative strategies, provision of a consistent set of high level value metrics, and the enabling of cost-benefit analysis. The tools developed to implement the strategic analysis methodology are not element design and sizing tools. Rather, these models evaluate strategic performance using predefined elements, imported into a library from expert-driven design/sizing tools or expert analysis. Specific components of the strategic analysis tool set include scenario definition, requirements generation, mission manifesting, scenario lifecycle costing, crew time analysis, objective satisfaction benefit, risk analysis, and probabilistic evaluation. Results from all components of strategic analysis are evaluated a set of pre-defined figures of merit (FOMs). These FOMs capture the high-level strategic characteristics of all scenarios and facilitate direct comparison of options. The strategic analysis methodology that is described in this paper has previously been applied to the Space Shuttle and International Space Station Programs and is now being used to support the development of the baseline Constellation Program lunar architecture. This paper will present an overview of the strategic analysis methodology and will present sample results from the application of the strategic analysis methodology to the Constellation Program lunar architecture.

Cirillo, William M.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Johnson Space Center's Risk and Reliability Analysis Group 2008 Annual Report

The Johnson Space Center (JSC) Safety & Mission Assurance (S&MA) Directorate s Risk and Reliability Analysis Group provides both mathematical and engineering analysis expertise in the areas of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), Reliability and Maintainability (R&M) analysis, and data collection and analysis. The fundamental goal of this group is to provide National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) decisionmakers with the necessary information to make informed decisions when evaluating personnel, flight hardware, and public safety concerns associated with current operating systems as well as with any future systems. The Analysis Group includes a staff of statistical and reliability experts with valuable backgrounds in the statistical, reliability, and engineering fields. This group includes JSC S&MA Analysis Branch personnel as well as S&MA support services contractors, such as Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) and SoHaR. The Analysis Group s experience base includes nuclear power (both commercial and navy), manufacturing, Department of Defense, chemical, and shipping industries, as well as significant aerospace experience specifically in the Shuttle, International Space Station (ISS), and Constellation Programs. The Analysis Group partners with project and program offices, other NASA centers, NASA contractors, and universities to provide additional resources or information to the group when performing various analysis tasks. The JSC S&MA Analysis Group is recognized as a leader in risk and reliability analysis within the NASA community. Therefore, the Analysis Group is in high demand to help the Space Shuttle Program (SSP) continue to fly safely, assist in designing the next generation spacecraft for the Constellation Program (CxP), and promote advanced analytical techniques. The Analysis Section s tasks include teaching classes and instituting personnel qualification processes to enhance the professional abilities of our analysts as well as performing major probabilistic assessments used to support flight rationale and help establish program requirements. During 2008, the Analysis Group performed more than 70 assessments. Although all these assessments were important, some were instrumental in the decisionmaking processes for the Shuttle and Constellation Programs. Two of the more significant tasks were the Space Transportation System (STS)-122 Low Level Cutoff PRA for the SSP and the Orion Pad Abort One (PA-1) PRA for the CxP. These two activities, along with the numerous other tasks the Analysis Group performed in 2008, are summarized in this report. This report also highlights several ongoing and upcoming efforts to provide crucial statistical and probabilistic assessments, such as the Extravehicular Activity (EVA) PRA for the Hubble Space Telescope service mission and the first fully integrated PRAs for the CxP's Lunar Sortie and ISS missions.

Valentine, Mark↗
NASA NTRS1993

Visualization techniques to aid in the analysis of multi-spectral astrophysical data sets

The goal of this project was to support the scientific analysis of multi-spectral astrophysical data by means of scientific visualization. Scientific visualization offers its greatest value if it is not used as a method separate or alternative to other data analysis methods but rather in addition to these methods. Together with quantitative analysis of data, such as offered by statistical analysis, image or signal processing, visualization attempts to explore all information inherent in astrophysical data in the most effective way. Data visualization is one aspect of data analysis. Our taxonomy as developed in Section 2 includes identification and access to existing information, preprocessing and quantitative analysis of data, visual representation and the user interface as major components to the software environment of astrophysical data analysis. In pursuing our goal to provide methods and tools for scientific visualization of multi-spectral astrophysical data, we therefore looked at scientific data analysis as one whole process, adding visualization tools to an already existing environment and integrating the various components that define a scientific data analysis environment. As long as the software development process of each component is separate from all other components, users of data analysis software are constantly interrupted in their scientific work in order to convert from one data format to another, or to move from one storage medium to another, or to switch from one user interface to another. We also took an in-depth look at scientific visualization and its underlying concepts, current visualization systems, their contributions, and their shortcomings. The role of data visualization is to stimulate mental processes different from quantitative data analysis, such as the perception of spatial relationships or the discovery of patterns or anomalies while browsing through large data sets. Visualization often leads to an intuitive understanding of the meaning of data values and their relationships by sacrificing accuracy in interpreting the data values. In order to be accurate in the interpretation, data values need to be measured, computed on, and compared to theoretical or empirical models (quantitative analysis). If visualization software hampers quantitative analysis (which happens with some commercial visualization products), its use is greatly diminished for astrophysical data analysis. The software system STAR (Scientific Toolkit for Astrophysical Research) was developed as a prototype during the course of the project to better understand the pragmatic concerns raised in the project. STAR led to a better understanding on the importance of collaboration between astrophysicists and computer scientists.

Brugel, Edward W.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Visualization techniques to aid in the analysis of multispectral astrophysical data sets

The goal of this project was to support the scientific analysis of multi-spectral astrophysical data by means of scientific visualization. Scientific visualization offers its greatest value if it is not used as a method separate or alternative to other data analysis methods but rather in addition to these methods. Together with quantitative analysis of data, such as offered by statistical analysis, image or signal processing, visualization attempts to explore all information inherent in astrophysical data in the most effective way. Data visualization is one aspect of data analysis. Our taxonomy as developed in Section 2 includes identification and access to existing information, preprocessing and quantitative analysis of data, visual representation and the user interface as major components to the software environment of astrophysical data analysis. In pursuing our goal to provide methods and tools for scientific visualization of multi-spectral astrophysical data, we therefore looked at scientific data analysis as one whole process, adding visualization tools to an already existing environment and integrating the various components that define a scientific data analysis environment. As long as the software development process of each component is separate from all other components, users of data analysis software are constantly interrupted in their scientific work in order to convert from one data format to another, or to move from one storage medium to another, or to switch from one user interface to another. We also took an in-depth look at scientific visualization and its underlying concepts, current visualization systems, their contributions and their shortcomings. The role of data visualization is to stimulate mental processes different from quantitative data analysis, such as the perception of spatial relationships or the discovery of patterns or anomalies while browsing through large data sets. Visualization often leads to an intuitive understanding of the meaning of data values and their relationships by sacrificing accuracy in interpreting the data values. In order to be accurate in the interpretation, data values need to be measured, computed on, and compared to theoretical or empirical models (quantitative analysis). If visualization software hampers quantitative analysis (which happens with some commercial visualization products), its use is greatly diminished for astrophysical data analysis. The software system STAR (Scientific Toolkit for Astrophysical Research) was developed as a prototype during the course of the project to better understand the pragmatic concerns raised in the project. STAR led to a better understanding on the importance of collaboration between astrophysicists and computer scientists. Twenty-one examples of the use of visualization for astrophysical data are included with this report. Sixteen publications related to efforts performed during or initiated through work on this project are listed at the end of this report.

Brugel, E. W.↗
NASA NTRS2018

An IR Sounding-Based Analysis of the Saharan Air Layer in North Africa

Intense daytime surface heating over barren-to-sparsely vegetated surfaces results in dry convective mixing. In the absence of external forcing such as mountain waves, the dry convection can produce a deep, well-mixed, nearly isentropic boundary layer that becomes a well-mixed residual layer in the evening. These well-mixed layers (WML) retain their unique mid-tropospheric thermal and humidity structure for several days. To detect the SAL and characterize its properties, AIRS Level 2 Ver. 6 temperature and humidity products (2003-Present) are evaluated against rawinsondes and compared to model analysis at each of the 55 rawinsonde stations in northern Africa. To distinguish WML from Saharan air layers (WMLs of Saharan origin), the detection involved a two-step process: 1) algorithm-based detection of WMLs in dry environments (less than 7 g per kilogram mixing ratio) 2) identification of Sahara air layers (SAL) by applying Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) back trajectories to determine the history of each WML. WML occurrence rates from AIRS closely resemble that from rawinsondes, yet rates from model analysis were up to 30% higher than observations in the Sahara due to model errors. Despite the overly frequent occurrence of WMLs from model analysis, HYSPLIT trajectory analysis showed that SAL occurrence rates (given a WML exists) from rawinsondes, AIRS, and model analysis were nearly identical. Although the number of WMLs varied among the data sources, the proportion of WMLs which were classified as SAL was nearly the same. The analysis of SAL bulk properties showed that AIRS and model analysis exhibited a slight warm and moist bias relative to rawinsondes in non-Saharan locations, but model analysis was notably warmer than rawinsondes and AIRS within the Sahara. The latter result is likely associated with the dearth of available data assimilated by model analysis in the Sahara. The variability of SAL thicknesses was reasonably captured by both AIRS and model analysis, but the former favor layers than are thinner than observations. Finally, further analysis of HYSPLIT trajectories revealed that fewer than 10% and 33% of all SAL back trajectories passed through regions with notable precipitation (>100 mm accumulated along the trajectory path) or Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD greater than 0.4, 75th percentile of AOD) on average, respectively. Trajectory analysis indicated that only 57% of Saharan and 24% of non-Saharan WMLs are definitively of Saharan origin (Saharan requirement: Two consecutive days in Sahara and 24 or more of those hours within 72 hours of detection). Non-SAL WMLs either originate from local-to-regionally generated residual layers or from mid-latitude air streams that do not linger over the Sahara for a sufficient time period. Initial analysis shows these non-SAL WMLs tend to be both notably cooler and slightly moister than their SAL counter parts. Continuing analysis will address what role Saharan and non-Saharan air masses characteristics may play on local and regional environmental conditions.

Nicholls, Stephen D.↗
NASA NTRS2002

On the Choice of Variable for Atmospheric Moisture Analysis

The implications of using different control variables for the analysis of moisture observations in a global atmospheric data assimilation system are investigated. A moisture analysis based on either mixing ratio or specific humidity is prone to large extrapolation errors, due to the high variability in space and time of these parameters and to the difficulties in modeling their error covariances. Using the logarithm of specific humidity does not alleviate these problems, and has the further disadvantage that very dry background estimates cannot be effectively corrected by observations. Relative humidity is a better choice from a statistical point of view, because this field is spatially and temporally more coherent and error statistics are therefore easier to obtain. If, however, the analysis is designed to preserve relative humidity in the absence of moisture observations, then the analyzed specific humidity field depends entirely on analyzed temperature changes. If the model has a cool bias in the stratosphere this will lead to an unstable accumulation of excess moisture there. A pseudo-relative humidity can be defined by scaling the mixing ratio by the background saturation mixing ratio. A univariate pseudo-relative humidity analysis will preserve the specific humidity field in the absence of moisture observations. A pseudorelative humidity analysis is shown to be equivalent to a mixing ratio analysis with flow-dependent covariances. In the presence of multivariate (temperature-moisture) observations it produces analyzed relative humidity values that are nearly identical to those produced by a relative humidity analysis. Based on a time series analysis of radiosonde observed-minus-background differences it appears to be more justifiable to neglect specific humidity-temperature correlations (in a univariate pseudo-relative humidity analysis) than to neglect relative humidity-temperature correlations (in a univariate relative humidity analysis). A pseudo-relative humidity analysis is easily implemented in an existing moisture analysis system, by simply scaling observed-minus background moisture residuals prior to solving the analysis equation, and rescaling the analyzed increments afterward.

Dee, Dick P.↗