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NASA NTRS2014

Technical Report Series on Global Modeling and Data Assimilation: Estimates of AOD Trends (2002 - 2012) Over the World's Major Cities Based on the MERRA Aerosol Reanalysis - Volume 32

NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office has extended the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Application (MERRA) tool with five atmospheric aerosol species (sulfates, organic carbon, black carbon, mineral dust and sea salt). This inclusion of aerosol reanalysis data is now known as MERRAero. This study analyses a ten-year period (July 2002 - June 2012) MERRAero aerosol reanalysis applied to the study of aerosol optical depth (AOD) and its trends for the aforementioned aerosol species over the world's major cities (with a population of over 2 million inhabitants). We found that a proportion of various aerosol species in total AOD exhibited a geographical dependence. Cities in industrialized regions (North America, Europe, central and eastern Asia) are characterized by a strong proportion of sulfate aerosols. Organic carbon aerosols are dominant over cities which are located in regions where biomass burning frequently occurs (South America and southern Africa). Mineral dust dominates other aerosol species in cities located in proximity to the major deserts (northern Africa and western Asia). Sea salt aerosols are prominent in coastal cities but are dominant aerosol species in very few of them. AOD trends are declining over cities in North America, Europe and Japan, as a result of effective air quality regulation. By contrast, the economic boom in China and India has led to increasing AOD trends over most cities in these two highly-populated countries. Increasing AOD trends over cities in the Middle East are caused by increasing desert dust.

AOD↗
NASA NTRS2014

Global Assessment of OMI Aerosol Single-scattering Albedo Using Ground-based AERONET and SKYNET Inversions

We compare the aerosol single-scattering albedo (SSA) retrieved by the near-UV two-channel algorithm (OMAERUV) applied to the Aura-Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) measurements with an equivalent inversion made by the ground-based Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET). This work is the first comprehensive effort to globally compare the OMI-retrieved SSA with that of AERONET using all available sites spanning the regions of biomass burning, dust, and urban pollution. An analysis of the co-located retrievals over 269 sites reveals that about 46 percent (69 percent) of OMI-AERONET matchups agree within the absolute difference of plus or minus 0.03 (plus or minus 0.05) for all aerosol types. The comparison improves to 52 percent (77 percent) when only 'smoke' and 'dust' aerosol types were identified by the OMAERUV algorithm. Regionally, the agreement between the two inversions was robust over the biomass burning sites of South America, Sahel, Indian subcontinent, and oceanic-coastal sites followed by a reasonable agreement over north-east Asia. Over the desert regions, OMI tends to retrieve higher SSA, particularly over the Arabian Peninsula. Globally, the OMI-AERONET matchups agree mostly within plus or minus 0.03 for the aerosol optical depth (440 nanometers) and UV-aerosol index larger than 0.4 and 1.0, respectively. We also compare the OMAERUV SSA against the inversion made by an independent network of ground-based radiometer called SKYNET with its operating sites in Japan, China, South-East Asia, India, and Europe. The advantage of the SKYNET database over AERONET is that it performs retrieval at near-UV wavelengths which facilitate the direct comparison of OMI retrievals with the equivalent ground-based inversion. Comparison of OMI and SKYNET over currently available sites reveals a good agreement between the two where more than 70 percent of matchups agree within the absolute difference of 0.05.

Aerosol Single-scattering Albedo↗
NASA NTRS2014

Comparison of the Impact of the Arctic Oscillation and East Atlantic - West Russia Teleconnection on Interannual Variation in East Asian Winter Temperatures and Monsoon

The large-scale impacts of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the East Atlantic/West Russia (EA/WR) teleconnection on the East Asian winter climate anomalies are compared for the past 34 winters focusing on 1) interannual monthly to seasonal temperature variability, 2) East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM), and 3) the Siberian high (SH) and cold surge. Regression analysis reveals warming by AO and EA/WR over mid-latitude East Asia during their positive phase and vice versa. The EA/WR impact is found to be comparable to the AO impact in affecting the East Asian temperature and monsoon. For example, warm (cold) months over mid-latitude East Asia during the positive (negative) AO are clearly seen when the AO and EA/WR are in the same phase. Near zero correlation is found between temperature and the AO phase when both teleconnections are in an opposite phase. The well-known negative relationship between SH and the AO phase is observed significantly more often when the AO is in the same phase with the EA/WR. Also, the indices of EAWM, cold surge, and SH are found to be more highly negative-correlated with the EA/WR rather than with the AO. The advective temperature change and associated circulation demonstrate that the anomalous large-scale field including the SH over the mid-latitude Asian inland is better represented by the EA/WR, influencing the East Asian winter climates. These results suggest that the impact of EA/WR should be considered more important than previously thought for a better understanding of East Asian winter temperature and monsoon variability.

Arctic Oscillation↗
NASA NTRS2014

Retrieval, Inter-Comparison, and Validation of Above-Cloud Aerosol Optical Depth from A-train Sensors

Absorbing aerosols produced from biomass burning and dust outbreaks are often found to overlay lower level cloud decks and pose greater potentials of exerting positive radiative effects (warming) whose magnitude directly depends on the aerosol loading above cloud, optical properties of clouds and aerosols, and cloud fraction. Recent development of a 'color ratio' (CR) algorithm applied to observations made by the Aura/OMI and Aqua/MODIS constitutes a major breakthrough and has provided unprecedented maps of above-cloud aerosol optical depth (ACAOD). The CR technique employs reflectance measurements at TOA in two channels (354 and 388 nm for OMI; 470 and 860 nm for MODIS) to retrieve ACAOD in near-UV and visible regions and aerosol-corrected cloud optical depth, simultaneously. An inter-satellite comparison of ACAOD retrieved from NASA's A-train sensors reveals a good level of agreement between the passive sensors over the homogeneous cloud fields. Direct measurements of ACA such as carried out by the NASA Ames Airborne Tracking Sunphotometer (AATS) and Spectrometer for Sky-Scanning, Sun-Tracking Atmospheric Research (4STAR) can be of immense help in validating ACA retrievals. We validate the ACA optical depth retrieved using the CR method applied to the MODIS cloudy-sky reflectance against the airborne AATS and 4STAR measurements. A thorough search of the historic AATS-4STAR database collected during different field campaigns revealed five events where biomass burning, dust, and wildfire-emitted aerosols were found to overlay lower level cloud decks observed during SAFARI-2000, ACE-ASIA 2001, and SEAC4RS- 2013, respectively. The co-located satellite-airborne measurements revealed a good agreement (RMSE less than 0.1 for AOD at 500 nm) with most matchups falling within the estimated uncertainties in the MODIS retrievals. An extensive validation of satellite-based ACA retrievals requires equivalent field measurements particularly over the regions where ACA are often observed from satellites, i.e., south-eastern Atlantic Ocean, tropical Atlantic Ocean, northern Arabian Sea, South-East and North-East Asia.

validation↗
NASA NTRS2015

Spatial and Temporal Analysis of a Global Landslide Catalog

Landslide inventories are critical to support investigations ofwhere andwhen landslides have happened andmay occur in the future; however, there is surprisingly little information on the historical occurrence of landslides at the global scale. This paper presents a new publicly available global landslide catalog (GLC), which is based on media reports, online databases, and other sources. This database is currently available at http://ojo-streamer. herokuapp.com/. The 5741 points in the GLC provide a foundation for evaluating spatial and temporal trends in landslide activity from 2007 to 2013. Globally, landslideswere reportedmost frequently from July to September. Most events occurred in Asia, North America and Southeast Asia. In contrast, fewer than 5% of the fatalities were reported in North America, suggesting a significant amount of under-reporting in other regions as well as potential discrepancies between developing and developed regions. Reported landslide events were also compared to satellite-based precipitation estimates fromthe Tropical RainfallMeasuring Mission (TRMM) to evaluate the co-occurrence of extreme precipitation and landslide activity. Of the 3550 points considered in a subset of the GLC, approximately 60% of the reported landslides have daily precipitation exceeding the 95th percentile of precipitation calculated over a 14-year TRMMrecord for the same location. This study also investigated how the recurrence interval of extreme precipitation corresponded to some of the most catastrophic landslide events. In spite of several reporting and cataloging biases, spatial and temporal analysis of the GLC suggests that it is a valuable database for characterizing global patterns of landslide occurrence and evaluating relationships with extreme precipitation at regional and global scales.

Analysis↗
NASA NTRS2015

On the Feasibility of Monitoring Carbon Monoxide in the Lower Troposphere from a Constellation of Northern Hemisphere Geostationary Satellites (PART 1)

By the end of the current decade, there are plans to deploy several geostationary Earth orbit (GEO) satellite missions for atmospheric composition over North America, East Asia and Europe with additional missions proposed. Together, these present the possibility of a constellation of geostationary platforms to achieve continuous time-resolved high-density observations over continental domains for mapping pollutant sources and variability at diurnal and local scales. In this paper, we use a novel approach to sample a very high global resolution model (GEOS-5 at 7 km horizontal resolution) to produce a dataset of synthetic carbon monoxide pollution observations representative of those potentially obtainable from a GEO satellite constellation with predicted measurement sensitivities based on current remote sensing capabilities. Part 1 of this study focuses on the production of simulated synthetic measurements for air quality OSSEs (Observing System Simulation Experiments). We simulate carbon monoxide nadir retrievals using a technique that provides realistic measurements with very low computational cost. We discuss the sampling methodology: the projection of footprints and areas of regard for geostationary geometries over each of the North America, East Asia and Europe regions; the regression method to simulate measurement sensitivity; and the measurement error simulation. A detailed analysis of the simulated observation sensitivity is performed, and limitations of the method are discussed. We also describe impacts from clouds, showing that the efficiency of an instrument making atmospheric composition measurements on a geostationary platform is dependent on the dominant weather regime over a given region and the pixel size resolution. These results demonstrate the viability of the "instrument simulator" step for an OSSE to assess the performance of a constellation of geostationary satellites for air quality measurements.

GEOS-5↗
NASA NTRS2016

An Optimal-Estimation-Based Aerosol Retrieval Algorithm Using OMI Near-UV Observations

An optimal-estimation(OE)-based aerosol retrieval algorithm using the OMI (Ozone Monitoring Instrument) near-ultraviolet observation was developed in this study. The OE-based algorithm has the merit of providing useful estimates of errors simultaneously with the inversion products. Furthermore, instead of using the traditional lookup tables for inversion, it performs online radiative transfer calculations with the VLIDORT (linearized pseudo-spherical vector discrete ordinate radiative transfer code) to eliminate interpolation errors and improve stability. The measurements and inversion products of the Distributed Regional Aerosol Gridded Observation Network campaign in northeast Asia (DRAGON NE-Asia 2012) were used to validate the retrieved aerosol optical thickness (AOT) and single scattering albedo (SSA). The retrieved AOT and SSA at 388 nm have a correlation with the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) products that is comparable to or better than the correlation with the operational product during the campaign. The OEbased estimated error represented the variance of actual biases of AOT at 388 nm between the retrieval and AERONET measurements better than the operational error estimates. The forward model parameter errors were analyzed separately for both AOT and SSA retrievals. The surface reflectance at 388 nm, the imaginary part of the refractive index at 354 nm, and the number fine-mode fraction (FMF) were found to be the most important parameters affecting the retrieval accuracy of AOT, while FMF was the most important parameter for the SSA retrieval. The additional information provided with the retrievals, including the estimated error and degrees of freedom, is expected to be valuable for relevant studies. Detailed advantages of using the OE method were described and discussed in this paper.

Air Pollution↗
NASA NTRS2016

Multi-Model Assessment of Global Hydropower and Cooling Water Discharge Potential Under Climate Change

Worldwide, 98% of total electricity is currently produced by thermoelectric power and hydropower. Climate change is expected to directly impact electricity supply, in terms of both water availability for hydropower generation and cooling water usage for thermoelectric power. Improved understanding of how climate change may impact the availability and temperature of water resources is therefore of major importance. Here we use a multi-model ensemble to show the potential impacts of climate change on global hydropower and cooling water discharge potential. For the first time, combined projections of streamflow and water temperature were produced with three global hydrological models (GHMs) to account for uncertainties in the structure and parametrization of these GHMs in both water availability and water temperature. The GHMs were forced with bias-corrected output of five general circulation models (GCMs) for both the lowest and highest representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). The ensemble projections of streamflow and water temperature were then used to quantify impacts on gross hydropower potential and cooling water discharge capacity of rivers worldwide. We show that global gross hydropower potential is expected to increase between +2.4% (GCM-GHM ensemble mean for RCP 2.6) and +6.3% (RCP 8.5) for the 2080s compared to 1971-2000. The strongest increases in hydropower potential are expected for Central Africa, India, central Asia and the northern high-latitudes, with 18-33% of the world population living in these areas by the 2080s. Global mean cooling water discharge capacity is projected to decrease by 4.5-15% (2080s). The largest reductions are found for the United States, Europe, eastern Asia, and southern parts of South America, Africa and Australia, where strong water temperature increases are projected combined with reductions in mean annual streamflow. These regions are expected to affect 11-14% (for RCP2.6 and the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP)1, SSP2, SSP4) and 41-51% (RCP8.5-SSP3, SSP5) of the world population by the 2080s.

global hydrological models↗
NASA NTRS2016

Geomagnetically Induced Currents Around the World During the 17 March 2015 Storm

Geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) represent a significant space weather issue for power grid and pipeline infrastructure, particularly during severe geomagnetic storms. In this study, magnetometer data collected from around the world are analyzed to investigate the GICs caused by the 2015 St. Patricks Day storm. While significant GIC activity in the high-latitude regions due to storm time substorm activity is shown for this event, enhanced GIC activity was also measured at two equatorial stations in the American and Southeast Asian sectors. This equatorial GIC activity is closely examined, and it is shown that it is present both during the arrival of the interplanetary shock at the storm sudden commencement (SSC) in Southeast Asia and during the main phase of the storm approximately 10 h later in South America. The SSC caused magnetic field variations at the equator in Southeast Asia that were twice the magnitude of those observed only a few degrees to the north, strongly indicating that the equatorial electrojet (EEJ) played a significant role. The large equatorial magnetic field variations measured in South America are also examined, and the coincident solar wind data are used to investigate the causes of the sudden changes in the EEJ approximately 10 h into the storm. From this analysis it is concluded that sudden magnetopause current increases due to increases in the solarwind dynamic pressure, and the sudden changes in the resultant magnetospheric and ionospheric current systems, are the primary drivers of equatorial GICs.

Carter, B. A.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Validating MODIS Above-Cloud Aerosol Optical Depth Retrieved from Color Ratio Algorithm Using Direct Measurements Made by NASA's Airborne AATS and 4STAR Sensors

We present the validation analysis of above-cloud aerosol optical depth (ACAOD) retrieved from the color ratio method applied to MODIS cloudy-sky reflectance measurements using the limited direct measurements made by NASAs airborne Ames Airborne Tracking Sunphotometer (AATS) and Spectrometer for Sky-Scanning, Sun-Tracking Atmospheric Research (4STAR) sensors. A thorough search of the airborne database collection revealed a total of five significant events in which an airborne sun photometer, coincident with the MODIS overpass, observed partially absorbing aerosols emitted from agricultural biomass burning, dust, and wildfires over a low-level cloud deck during SAFARI-2000, ACE-ASIA 2001, and SEAC4RS 2013 campaigns, respectively. The co-located satellite-airborne match ups revealed a good agreement (root-mean-square difference less than 0.1), with most match ups falling within the estimated uncertainties associated with the MODIS retrievals (about -10 to +50 ). The co-retrieved cloud optical depth was comparable to that of the MODIS operational cloud product for ACE-ASIA and SEAC4RS, however, higher by 30-50% for the SAFARI-2000 case study. The reason for this discrepancy could be attributed to the distinct aerosol optical properties encountered during respective campaigns. A brief discussion on the sources of uncertainty in the satellite-based ACAOD retrieval and co-location procedure is presented. Field experiments dedicated to making direct measurements of aerosols above cloud are needed for the extensive validation of satellite based retrievals.

airborne sun photometer↗
NASA NTRS2016

Global and Regional Radiative Forcing from 20 Reductions in BC, OC and SO4 an HTAP2 Multi-Model Study

In the Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution Phase 2 (HTAP2) exercise, a range of global atmospheric general circulation and chemical transport models performed coordinated perturbation experiments with 20% reductions in emissions of anthropogenic aerosols, or aerosol precursors, in a number of source regions. Here, we compare the resulting changes in the atmospheric load and vertically resolved profiles of black carbon (BC), organic aerosols (OA) and sulfate (SO4/ from 10 models that include treatment of aerosols. We use a set of temporally, horizontally and vertically resolved profiles of aerosol forcing efficiency (AFE) to estimate the impact of emission changes in six major source regions on global radiative forcing (RF) pertaining to the direct aerosol effect, finding values between. 51.9 and 210.8mW/sq m/Tg for BC, between -2.4 and -17.9mW/sq m/Tg for OA and between -3.6 and -10.3W/sq m/Tg for SO4. In most cases, the local influence dominates, but results show that mitigations in south and east Asia have substantial impacts on the radiative budget in all investigated receptor regions, especially for BC. In Russia and the Middle East, more than 80 % of the forcing for BC and OA is due to extra-regional emission reductions. Similarly, for North America, BC emissions control in east Asia is found to be more important than domestic mitigations, which is consistent with previous findings. Comparing fully resolved RF calculations to RF estimates based on vertically averaged AFE profiles allows us to quantify the importance of vertical resolution to RF estimates. We find that locally in the source regions, a 20% emission reduction strengthens the radiative forcing associated with SO4 by 25% when including the vertical dimension, as the AFE for SO4 is strongest near the surface. Conversely, the local RF from BC weakens by 37% since BC AFE is low close to the ground. The fraction of BC direct effect forcing attributable to intercontinental transport, on the other hand, is enhanced by one-third when accounting for the vertical aspect, because long-range transport primarily leads to aerosol changes at high altitudes, where the BC AFE is strong. While the surface temperature response may vary with the altitude of aerosol change, the analysis in the present study is not extended to estimates of temperature or precipitation changes.

profiles of aerosol forcing efficiency (AFE)↗
NASA NTRS2015

Applying Advanced Ground-Based Remote Sensing in the Southeast Asian Maritime Continent to Characterize Regional Proficiencies in Smoke Transport Modeling

This work describes some of the most extensive ground-based observations of the aerosol profile collected in Southeast Asia to date, highlighting the challenges in simulating these observations with a mesoscale perspective. An 84-h WRF Model coupled with chemistry (WRF-Chem) mesoscale simulation of smoke particle transport at Kuching, Malaysia, in the southern Maritime Continent of Southeast Asia is evaluated relative to a unique collection of continuous ground-based lidar, sun photometer, and 4-h radiosonde profiling. The period was marked by relatively dry conditions, allowing smoke layers transported to the site unperturbed by wet deposition to be common regionally. The model depiction is reasonable overall. Core thermodynamics, including landsea-breeze structure, are well resolved. Total model smoke extinction and, by proxy, mass concentration are low relative to observation. Smoke emissions source products are likely low because of undersampling of fires in infrared sun-synchronous satellite products, which is exacerbated regionally by endemic low-level cloud cover. Differences are identified between the model mass profile and the lidar profile, particularly during periods of afternoon convective mixing. A static smoke mass injection height parameterized for this study potentially influences this result. The model does not resolve the convective mixing of aerosol particles into the lower free troposphere or the enhancement of near-surface extinction from nighttime cooling and hygroscopic effects.

Aerosols; Air quality; Lidars/Lidar observations; ↗
NASA NTRS2015

Investigation of the CCN Activity, BC and UVBC Mass Concentrations of Biomass Burning Aerosols during the 2013 BASELInE Campaign

Biomass-burning (BB) aerosols, acting as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), can influence cloud microphysical and radiative properties. In this study, we present CCN measured near the BB source regions over northern Southeast Asia (Doi Ang Khang, Thailand) and at downwind receptor areas (Lulin Atmospheric Background Station, Taiwan), focusing exclusively on 13-20 March 2013 as part of 2013 spring campaign of the Seven SouthEast Asian Studies (7-SEAS) intensive observation. One of the campaigns objectives is to characterize BB aerosols serving as CCN in SouthEast Asia (SEA). CCN concentrations were measured by a CCN counter at 5 supersaturation (SS) levels: 0.15%, 0.30%, 0.45%, 0.60%, and 0.75%. In addition, PM2.5 and black carbon mass concentrations were analyzed by using a tapered element oscillating microbalance and an aethalometer. It was found the number-size distributions and the characteristics of hygroscopicity (e.g., activation ratio and k) of BB aerosols in SEA have a strong diurnal pattern, and different behaviors of patterns were characterized under two distinct weather systems. The overall average value was low (0.05-0.1) but comparable with previous CCN studies in other BB source regions. Furthermore, a large fraction of UV-absorbing organic material (UVBC) and high Delta-C among BB aerosols were also observed, which suggest the existence of substantial particulate organic matter in fresh BB aerosols. These data provide the most extensive characterization of BB aerosols in SEA until now.

biomass burning aerosol↗
NASA NTRS2017

Global Precipitation Products at NASA GES DISC for Supporting Agriculture Research and Applications

This presentation describes precipitation products available at the NASA GES DISC that support agricultural research. XXXX Key environmental variables for agriculture: precipitation, temperature, water (soil moisture), solar radiation, NDVI, etc. Rainfed agriculture - major farming practices that rely on rainfall for water. Rainfed agriculture: >95% of farmed land (sub- Saharan Africa); 90% (Latin America); 75% (Near East and North Africa); 65% (East Asia); 60% (South Asia). Precipitation is very important for rainfed agriculture. Droughts can cause severe damage. Precipitation information can be used to monitor the growing season. The Goddard Earth Sciences (GES) Data and Information Services Center (DISC), one of 12 NASA data centers, located in Greenbelt, Maryland, USA. The GES DISC is a major data archive center for global precipitation, water & energy cycles, atmospheric composition, and climate variability Global and regional precipitation datasets (satellite-based and data assimilation Data services (subsetting, format conversion, online visualization, etc.) User services are available FAQs, How to (recipes), Glossary, etc. Social media (Twitter, YouTube, User forum) Help desk (phone, email, online feedback) Training materials (ARSET => Applied Remote Sensing Training) Liu,

precipitation↗
NASA NTRS2017

A Pan-Tropical Cascade of Fire Driven by El Nino/Southern Oscillation

The El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has a pronounced influence on year-to-year variations in climate. The response of fires to this forcing is complex and has not been evaluated systematically across different continents. Here we use satellite data to create a climatology of burned-area and fire emissions responses, drawing on six El Nino and six La Nina events during 1997-2016. On average, reductions in precipitation and terrestrial water storage increased fire emissions in pan-tropical forests by 133% during and following El Nino as compared with La Nina. Fires peaked in equatorial Asia early in the ENSO cycle when El Nino was strengthening (Aug-Oct), before moving to southeast Asia and northern South America (Jan-Apr), Central America (Mar-May) and the southern Amazon (Jul-Oct) during the following year. Large decreases in fire occurred across northern Australia during Sep-Oct of the second year from a reduced fuel availability. Satellite observations of aerosols and carbon monoxide provided independent confirmation of the spatiotemporal evolution of fire anomalies. The predictable cascade of fire across different tropical continents described here highlights an important time delay in the Earth system's response to precipitation redistribution. These observations help to explain why the growth rate of atmospheric CO2 increases during El Nino and may contribute to improved seasonal fire forecasts.

Chen, Yang↗
NASA NTRS2013

Multi-Model Mean Nitrogen and Sulfur Deposition from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP): Evaluation of Historical and Projected Future Changes

We present multi-model global datasets of nitrogen and sulfate deposition covering time periods from 1850 to 2100, calculated within the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP). The computed deposition fluxes are compared to surface wet deposition and ice core measurements.We use a new dataset of wet deposition for 2000-2002 based on critical assessment of the quality of existing regional network data. We show that for present day (year 2000 ACCMIP time slice), the ACCMIP results perform similarly to previously published multi-model assessments. For this time slice, we find a multimodel mean deposition of approximately 50 Tg(N) yr−1 from nitrogen oxide emissions, 60 Tg(N) yr−1 from ammonia emissions, and 83 Tg(S) yr−1 from sulfur emissions. The analysis of changes between 1980 and 2000 indicates significant differences between model and measurements over the United States but less so over Europe. This difference points towards a potential misrepresentation of 1980 NH3 emissions over North America. Based on ice core records, the 1850 deposition fluxes agree well with Greenland ice cores, but the change between 1850 and 2000 seems to be overestimated in the Northern Hemisphere for both nitrogen and sulfur species. Using the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) to define the projected climate and atmospheric chemistry related emissions and concentrations, we find large regional nitrogen deposition increases in 2100 in Latin America, Africa and parts of Asia under some of the scenarios considered. Increases in South Asia are especially large, and are seen in all scenarios, with 2100 values more than double their 2000 counterpart in some scenarios and reaching >1300 mg(N)m−2 yr−1 averaged over regional to continental-scale regions in RCP 2.6 and 8.5, 30-50% larger than the values in any region currently (circa 2000). However, sulfur deposition rates in 2100 are in all regions lower than in 2000 in all the RCPs. The new ACCMIP multimodel deposition dataset provides state-of-the-science, consistent and evaluated time slice (spanning 1850-2100) global gridded deposition fields for use in a wide range of climate and ecological studies.

Lamarque, J.-F.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Climate and the Global Famine of 1876-78

From 1875 to 1878, concurrent multiyear droughts in Asia, Brazil, and Africa, referred to as the Great Drought, caused widespread crop failures, catalyzing the so-called Global Famine, which had fatalities exceeding 50 million people and long-lasting societal consequences. Observations, paleoclimate reconstructions, and climate model simulations are used 1) to demonstrate the severity and characterize the evolution of drought across different regions, and 2) to investigate the underlying mechanisms driving its multiyear persistence. Severe or record-setting droughts occurred on continents in both hemispheres and in multiple seasons, with the "Monsoon Asia" region being the hardest hit, experiencing the single most intense and the second most expansive drought in the last 800 years. The extreme severity, duration, and extent of this global event is associated with an extraordinary combination of preceding cool tropical Pacific conditions (1870-76), a record-breaking El Nino (1877-78), a record strong Indian Ocean dipole (1877), and record warm North Atlantic Ocean (1878) conditions. Composites of historical analogs and two sets of ensemble simulations - one forced with global sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and another forced with tropical Pacific SST - were used to distinguish the role of the extreme conditions in different ocean basins. While the drought in most regions was largely driven by the tropical Pacific SST conditions, an extreme positive phase of the Indian Ocean dipole and warm North Atlantic SSTs, both likely aided by the strong El Nino in 1877-78, intensified and prolonged droughts in Australia and Brazil, respectively, and extended the impact to northern and southeastern Africa. Climatic conditions that caused the Great Drought and Global Famine arose from natural variability, and their recurrence, with hydrological impacts intensified by global warming, could again potentially undermine global food security.

multi-year drought↗