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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

A Photochemical Phosphorus-Hydrogen-Oxygen Network for Hydrogen-dominated Exoplanet Atmospheres

Due to the detection of phosphine (PH 3 ) in the solar system gas giants Jupiter and Saturn, PH 3 has long been suggested to be detectable in exosolar substellar atmospheres too. However, to date, direct detection of phosphine has proven to be elusive in exoplanet atmosphere surveys. We construct an updated phosphorus-hydrogen-oxygen (PHO) photochemical network suitable for the simulation of gas giant hydrogen-dominated atmospheres. Using this network, we examine PHO photochemistry in hot Jupiter and warm Neptune exoplanet atmospheres at solar and enriched metallicities. Our results show for HD 189733b-like hot Jupiters that HOPO, PO, and P 2 are typically the dominant P carriers at pressures important for transit and emission spectra, rather than PH 3 . For GJ1214b-like warm Neptune atmospheres our results suggest that at solar metallicity PH 3 is dominant in the absence of photochemistry, but is generally not in high abundance for all other chemical environments. At 10 and 100 times solar, small oxygenated phosphorus molecules such as HOPO and PO dominate for both thermochemical and photochemical simulations. The network is able to reproduce well the observed PH 3 abundances on Jupiter and Saturn. Despite progress in improving the accuracy of the PHO network, large portions of the reaction rate data remain with approximate, uncertain, or missing values, which could change the conclusions of the current study significantly. Improving understanding of the kinetics of phosphorus-bearing chemical reactions will be a key undertaking for astronomers aiming to detect phosphine and other phosphorus species in both rocky and gaseous exoplanetary atmospheres in the near future.

atmospheric composition↗
DOE OSTI2023

Comparing the Effect of Anthropogenically Amplified Halogen Natural Emissions on Tropospheric Ozone Chemistry Between Pre-Industrial and Present-Day

Reactive halogens (X + XO, X = I, Br or Cl) catalytically destroy a fraction of tropospheric ozone under present-day (PD) conditions, however, their distribution and potential impact on tropospheric ozone under pre-industrial (PI) conditions remain largely unexplored. This study uses the Community Atmosphere Model with Chemistry (CAM-Chem) to investigate the effect of anthropogenically amplified natural emissions of halogenated species and their subsequent chemistry on tropospheric ozone under PI and PD atmospheric conditions. Model results show that the global tropospheric ozone depletion due to natural halogens is slightly more sensitive in PI than PD, with percentage changes in tropospheric ozone burden (TOB) of -14.1 ± 0.6% for PI and -12.9 ± 0.6% for PD. Individually, the role of iodine and chlorine in ozone depletion is equivalent in both periods (ΔTOB I : ~-7% and ΔTOB Cl : ~-2.5%), while bromine plays a larger role in PI (ΔTOB Br : -5.5 ± 0.6%) versus PD (ΔTOB Br : -4.3 ± 0.7%). The increase in anthropogenic ozone precursor emissions from PI to PD has amplified the natural emission of inorganic halogens and led to a shift in the partitioning of inorganic halogens from reactive to reservoir species. Consequently, halogen-driven ozone depletion from the surface to the free troposphere is larger in PI than PD. In contrast, in the upper troposphere, the ozone depletion is larger in PD influenced mainly by stratospheric intrusion of reactive halogens from long-lived species. This study highlights the importance of including a complete chemical coupling of natural halogens and atmospheric pollutants in chemistry-climate models to adequately assess their effects on tropospheric ozone in a changing climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Spectroscopic signatures and oxidation characteristics of nanosecond laser-induced cerium plasmas

Improving technologies related to the wide area environmental sampling of nuclear materials supports the nuclear nonproliferation mission of preventing the proliferation of nuclear weapons by monitoring nuclear weapons tests and detecting undeclared nuclear fuel cycle activities. Standoff, laser-based detection techniques such as laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy have the potential to offer robust, field-deployable methods that provide rapid element-specific and phase identifiable measurements over a wide range of materials. This work aims to elucidate the effects of atmospheric conditions and oxidation reactions on the highly complex and transient spectroscopic signatures of laser-induced plutonium surrogate plasmas. Time-resolved spectra of nanosecond laser ablation cerium plasmas were measured using laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy in a range of atmospheres containing low to high concentrations of oxygen. Here, the growth of strong CeO molecular emission bands was observed in the visible spectrum, where it was shown that the persistence of CeO is reduced from around 60 μs to 50 μs in oxygen rich atmospheric environments. To further investigate the growth and depletion of CeO in the laser-produced plasma, ratios of CeO-to-Ce emission were generated using integrated intensities corresponding to the Q-branch of the CeO D 1 -X 1 transitions and numerous strong atomic Ce peaks. It was determined that the fastest rate of formation of CeO in argon occurred for moderate oxygen mass fractions between 0.10 and 0.15 while the ratios were reduced at higher oxygen mass fractions (i.e., Y O 2 = 0.20) due to competing oxidation reactions and lower plasma temperatures.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Total Column Infrared Trace Species in Baltimore Field Campaign Report

The U.S. Department of Energy’s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) User Facility Coast-Urban-Rural Atmospheric Gradient Experiment (CoURAGE), including the first ARM Mobile Facility (AMF1), occurred during 2025 at a site in Baltimore, Maryland owned by Morgan State University. Our goal was to supplement the measurements taken by locating a Bruker EM27/SUN spectrometer at the site to make total column measurements of trace gases in the near-infrared. This EM27 location was one of six locations in the Washington, D.C./Maryland region during the summer of 2025, and the network of observations was intended to help us better understand emissions in the region, as well as how emissions interact with meteorology to affect air quality and other atmospheric attributes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Interactions between land use, fires, and dust as drivers of global climate change (Final Technical Report)

This award to UC Irvine and Cornell University led to the publication of 18 papers, three of which are highly cited. According to ISI Web of Science, the body of work from this grant has been cited over 476 times by May 2025. Several additional publications remain in review. This grant contributed to several significant science advances, including an improved understanding of the influence of fire aerosols on global photosynthesis (Xu et al., 2021), dust-driven teleconnections between Africa and South America (Li et al., 2021), the role of fire aerosols in triggering phytoplankton blooms in the Arctic (Ardyna et al., 2022), and wildfire responses to heat waves (Li et al., in review). Several other studies are being written up for publication, and will acknowledge funding support. These efforts include an analysis in which the magnitude of tropical fire emissions from land use change is constrained by comparing E3SMv3 simulations with atmospheric observations. This work has revealed that carbon cycle model estimates of land use change may considerably overestimate the global tropical deforestation flux. The project also contributed to several technical advances, including a new process-based and scale-aware desert dust emission scheme for global climate models (Leung et al., 2023), an improved representation of dust and its influence on radiation in E3SM (Feng et al., 2022), an improved representation of the dust parameterization in the Community Earth System Model (Li et al., 2022), and an improved coupling of wildfires with atmospheric chemistry in E3SM v3.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Emissions in short-gated ns/ps/fs-LIBS for fuel-to-air ratio measurements in methane-air flames

A study of short-gated 10 nanosecond (ns), 100 picosecond (ps), and 100 femtosecond (fs) laser induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) was conducted for fuel-to-air ratio (FAR) measurements in an atmospheric Hencken flame. The intent of the work is to understand which emission lines are available near the optical range in each pulse width regime and which emission ratios may be favorable for generating equivalence ratio calibration curves. The emission spectra in the range of 550–800 nm for ns-LIBS and ps-LIBS are mostly similar with slightly elevated atomic oxygen lines by ps-LIBS. Spectra from fs-LIBS show the lowest continuum background and prominent individual atomic lines, though have significantly weaker ionic emission from nitrogen. A qualitative explanation based on assumed local thermodynamic equilibrium and electron temperatures calculated by the N I I ( 565 n m ) and N I I ( 594 n m ) emissions is presented. In studying line emission ratios for FAR calculation, it is found that H α <#comment/> ( 656 n m ) / N I I ( 568 n m ) is best for FAR measurements with ns-LIBS and remains viable for ps-LIBS, while H α <#comment/> ( 656 n m ) / O I ( 777 n m ) is optimal for the ps-LIBS and fs-LIBS cases. Due to low continuum background and short time delay for spectra collection, fs-LIBS is very promising for high-speed FAR measurements using short-gated LIBS.

Gragston, Mark (ORCID:0000000324698995)↗
DOE OSTI2020

Investigation of Mass Transfer and Sorption in CO 2 /Brine/Rock Systems via In Situ FT-IR

CO 2 geological storage in deep saline formations is considered a promising method to mitigate anthropogenic CO 2 emissions and, thereby, minimize changes to the Earth’s atmosphere. A fundamental understanding of CO 2 mass transfer and sorption phenomena in brine-saturated reservoir formations is necessary to understand the long-term fate of injected CO 2 as it is subjected to different (physical, dissolution, and mineral) trapping mechanisms. In this work, we investigate CO 2 sorption in brine-saturated and dry Mt. Simon sandstone samples via in-situ Fourier Transform infrared spectroscopy (FT-IR) at elevated pressures, ranging from 0.3 MPa to 8.3 MPa, at a temperature of 50 ⁰C. The FT-IR spectra of bulk-phase CO 2 were simultaneously recorded under the same conditions. For bulk-phase CO 2 , we observed, in agreement with past studies, a doublet peak at 2361 cm -1 and 2336 cm -1 and another peak (ν 2 bending mode) at 667 cm -1 . With increasing pressure, the position of the peak at 667 cm -1 remains invariant, however, when crossing into the supercritical region the doublet peak degenerates onto a single peak at 2336 cm -1 with a barely visible shoulder at 2361 cm -1 . The bulk CO 2 data provide a perfect fit for Beer’s law for the whole range of pressure conditions. For the dry sample, the IR spectrum is experimentally indistinguishable from the bulk CO 2 spectrum, signifying that if physical adsorption occurs to any significant extent, the adsorbed CO 2 molecules are not substantially more rotationally constrained than the dense bulk CO 2 molecules. For the brine-saturated sample, we observe a strong band centered at 2342 cm -1 and a small companion peak at 2360-2361 cm -1 that degenerates into a barely visible shoulder peak at the higher pressures. The 2342 cm -1 band has been previously observed by other investigators for CO 2 dissolved in bulk water/brine as well during its adsorption on a variety of other wet natural porous media. We observe no peaks corresponding to bicarbonate or carbonate bulk species, which correlates well with the prior literature on similar low-pH aqueous solutions. The integrated peak area for the CO 2 sorbed in the brine-saturated sample correlates linearly with its solubility in the same bulk brine, as measured separately via a PVT-cell approach. Here, this validates the accuracy of both techniques, and the potential of the FT-IR method to be used in the study of mass transfer and adsorption in such systems. To that effect, a simple mathematical model is presented to analyze the FT-IR data to determine the CO 2 effective diffusivity in the brine-saturated sandstone sample.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Using Satellite‐Derived Fire Arrival Times for Coupled Wildfire‐Air Quality Simulations at Regional Scales of the 2020 California Wildfire Season

Abstract Wildfire frequency has increased in the Western US over recent decades, driven by climate change and a legacy of forest management practices. Consequently, human structures, health, and life are increasingly at risk due to wildfires. Furthermore, wildfire smoke presents a growing hazard for regional and national air quality. In response, many scientific tools have been developed to study and forecast wildfire behavior, or test interventions that may mitigate risk. In this study, we present a retrospective analysis of 1 month of the 2020 Northern California wildfire season, when many wildfires with varying environments and behavior impacted regional air quality. We simulated this period using a coupled numerical weather prediction model with online atmospheric chemistry, and compare two approaches to representing smoke emissions: an online fire spread model driven by remotely sensed fire arrival times and a biomass burning emissions inventory. First, we quantify the differences in smoke emissions and timing of fire activity, and characterize the subsequent impact on estimates of smoke emissions. Next, we compare the simulated smoke to surface observations and remotely sensed smoke; we find that despite differences in the simulated smoke surface concentrations, the two models achieve similar levels of accuracy. We present a detailed comparison between the performance and relative strengths of both approaches, and discuss potential refinements that could further improve future simulations of wildfire smoke. Finally, we characterize the interactions between smoke and meteorology during this event, and discuss the implications that increases in regional smoke may have on future meteorological conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Development of the United States GReenhouse Gas and Air Pollutants Emissions System (GRA 2 PES)

In the U.S., emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants are often developed independently. Here, we describe the GReenhouse gas And Air Pollutants Emissions System (GRA 2 PES), which provides gridded emissions of fossil-fuel carbon dioxide (ffCO 2 ) and 93 air quality (AQ) species for 17 combustion and non-combustion sectors at 4 km × 4 km spatial resolution across the contiguous US. We find that the AQ emissions most spatially correlated with ffCO 2 are nitrogen oxides (NO x , ρ = 0.67), followed by sulfur dioxide (SO 2 , ρ = 0.51), carbon monoxide (CO, ρ = 0.44), and fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 , ρ = 0.38). We evaluate GRA 2 PES ffCO 2 emissions with an ensemble of publicly available regional and global inventories at national (Normalized Mean Bias (NMB) = +1.4%), state (NMB = +1.5%, R 2 = 0.98), and urban (NMB = +11.5%, R 2 = 0.97) scales. Nationally, the differences of publicly available inventories from the ensemble average range from −10.0% to +5.7%, and consistency diverges at state and urban scales. We simulate GRA 2 PES ffCO 2 in a particle dispersion model and compare to measurements of radiocarbon ( 14 C)-derived ffCO 2 collected in Los Angeles (August 2021), with results suggesting that GRA 2 PES ffCO 2 may be low by 19% for this city, but well within model-observation differences for other publicly available inventories (−43% to +94%). GRA 2 PES AQ/ffCO 2 ratios converted to concentration space generally agree with field observations (NMB = +4%, log R 2 = 0.90). Lastly, we present a method by which to utilize GRA 2 PES to derive AQ emission fluxes from ffCO 2 emissions.

Lyu, Congmeng [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Ad↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hot season gets hotter due to rainfall delay over tropical land in a warming climate

Tropical land generally experiences the hottest period (spring) in a year just before the onset of wet season. Previous studies suggested that in a warming climate, the wet season would come later, but its origin is debated and its impact on temperature remains unknown. Here, we find that the warming of hot season would be amplified under global warming, and refer to it as “hot-season-gets-hotter” phenomenon. The amplified hot season warming is closely tied to the amplified warming of hot temperature percentiles. The hot-season-gets-hotter phenomenon is mainly due to the rainfall delay and most evident in the Amazon, where spring is warming by almost 1?K more than the annual mean and the 99th percentile temperatures are warming ~30% more than the mean by the end of 21st century in a high emission scenario. Comparing experiments with and without land-atmosphere coupling, it is further found that the rainfall delay is initially driven by the enhanced effective atmospheric heat capacity and then substantially amplified by positive soil moisture-atmosphere feedback. In the satellite period, observations consistently show that the hot-season-gets-hotter phenomenon has already emerged along with the rainfall delay in the Amazon. Intensified hot and dry spring climate can enhance risks of drought, heatwaves and wildfires, threatening the Amazon forest and habitats in the tropics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Mid-infrared trace detection with parts-per-quadrillion quantitation accuracy: Expanding frontiers of radiocarbon sensing

Detection sensitivity is a critical characteristic to consider during selection of spectroscopic techniques. However, high sensitivity alone is insufficient for spectroscopic measurements in spectrally congested regions. Two-color cavity ringdown spectroscopy (2C-CRDS), based on intra-cavity pump–probe detection, simultaneously achieves high detection sensitivity and selectivity. This combination enables mid-infrared detection of radiocarbon dioxide ( 14 CO 2 ) molecules in room-temperature CO 2 samples, with 1.4 parts-per-quadrillion (ppq, 10 − 15 ) sensitivity (average measurement precision) and 4.6-ppq quantitation accuracy (average calibrated measurement error for 21 samples from four separate trials) demonstrated on samples with 14 C/C up to ∼ 1.5 × natural abundance ( ∼ 1,800 ppq). These highly reproducible measurements, which are the most sensitive and quantitatively accurate in the mid-infrared, are accomplished despite the presence of orders-of-magnitude stronger, one-photon signals from other CO 2 isotopologues. This is a major achievement in laser spectroscopy. A room-temperature-operated, compact, and low-cost 2C-CRDS sensor for 14 CO 2 benefits a wide range of scientific fields that utilize 14 C for dating and isotope tracing, most notably atmospheric 14 CO 2 monitoring to track CO 2 emissions from fossil fuels. The 2C-CRDS technique significantly enhances the general utility of high-resolution mid-infrared detection for analytical measurements and fundamental chemical dynamics studies.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2024

Methane Integrated Monitoring and Measurement System Design

Methane (CH 4 ), an abundant greenhouse gas, is the second largest contributor to global warming after carbon dioxide (CO 2 ). In comparison to CO 2 , CH 4 has a larger warming effect over a much shorter lifetime. While technologies to radically reduce global carbon dioxide emissions are materializing, rapid reductions in methane emissions are needed to limit near-term warming. Methane is primarily emitted as a byproduct from agricultural activities and energy extraction/utilization and is currently monitored via bottom-up (i.e., activity level) or top-down (via airborne or satellite retrievals) approaches. However, significant methane leaks remain undetected, and emission rates are challenging to characterize with current monitoring frameworks. In this report, we study methane leaks from oil and gas infrastructure using a tiered monitoring approach that combines bottom-up and top-down approaches in an integrated framework. We describe the individual advantages of bottom-up and top-down sensors in both stationary and mobile settings before characterizing how a fully integrated framework can improve predictions and uncertainties of potential leak locations and their emission rates. Further, we study the impact of different atmospheric (wind) conditions on integrated methane monitoring and develop a probabilistic approach to optimal sensor placement, thereby shortening detection times and improving monitoring capabilities. Last, we discuss how biogenic flux modeling can be used to improve assessment of background methane concentrations needed to fully assess the sensitivity of a tiered monitoring system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

TRACER-Tethersonde VOC data

One objective of TRACER-Tethersonde campaign was to deploy a volatile organic compound (VOC) sampler on the Tethered Balloon System (TBS) to create vertical profiles and characterize VOC composition. Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) are highly reactive precursor species that undergo atmospheric processing to form secondary products, including aerosol. VOC emissions are influenced by many factors that include but are not limited to temperature, time of day, local anthropogenic activities, and local vegetation, which result in large spatiotemporal variability. The vertical distribution of volatile species is crucial for understanding gas-phase processing for particle production but challenging to accomplish using currently available sampling devices. The standalone sampler built during the campaign enabled the execution of robust experimental designs, including sample collection using resin tubes at multiple altitudes on subsequent flights. Following field sampling, resin tubes were transported back to Baylor University for chemical analysis using a Markes International thermal desorption unit coupled with a gas chromatograph-tandem mass spectrometer (Thermo Scientific). The target analyte list includes biogenic and anthropogenic VOCs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

ARES. III. Unveiling the Two Faces of KELT-7 b with HST WFC3

We present the analysis of the hot-Jupiter KELT-7 b using transmission and emission spectroscopy from the Hubble Space Telescope, both taken with the Wide Field Camera 3. Our study uncovers a rich transmission spectrum that is consistent with a cloud-free atmosphere and suggests the presence of H{sub 2}O and H{sup −}. In contrast, the extracted emission spectrum does not contain strong absorption features and, although it is not consistent with a simple blackbody, it can be explained by a varying temperature–pressure profile, collision induced absorption, and H{sup −}. KELT-7 b had also been studied with other space-based instruments and we explore the effects of introducing these additional data sets. Further observations with Hubble, or the next generation of space-based telescopes, are needed to allow for the optical opacity source in transmission to be confirmed and for molecular features to be disentangled in emission.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

National CO 2 budgets (2015–2020) inferred from atmospheric CO 2 observations in support of the global stocktake

Accurate accounting of emissions and removals of CO 2 is critical for the planning and verification of emission reduction targets in support of the Paris Agreement. Here, we present a pilot dataset of country-specific net carbon exchange (NCE; fossil plus terrestrial ecosystem fluxes) and terrestrial carbon stock changes aimed at informing countries' carbon budgets. These estimates are based on “top-down” NCE outputs from the v10 Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO-2) modeling intercomparison project (MIP), wherein an ensemble of inverse modeling groups conducted standardized experiments assimilating OCO-2 column-averaged dry-air mole fraction (X CO 2 ) retrievals (ACOS v10), in situ CO 2 measurements or combinations of these data. The v10 OCO-2 MIP NCE estimates are combined with “bottom-up” estimates of fossil fuel emissions and lateral carbon fluxes to estimate changes in terrestrial carbon stocks, which are impacted by anthropogenic and natural drivers. These flux and stock change estimates are reported annually (2015–2020) as both a global 1° x 1° gridded dataset and a country-level dataset and are available for download from the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites' (CEOS) website. Across the v10 OCO-2 MIP experiments, we obtain increases in the ensemble median terrestrial carbon stocks of 3.29–4.58 Pg CO2 yr -1 (0.90–1.25 Pg C yr -1 ). This is a result of broad increases in terrestrial carbon stocks across the northern extratropics, while the tropics generally have stock losses but with considerable regional variability and differences between v10 OCO-2 MIP experiments. We discuss the state of the science for tracking emissions and removals using top-down methods, including current limitations and future developments towards top-down monitoring and verification systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Energy Surplus and an Atmosphere‐Land‐Surface “Tug of War” Control Future Evapotranspiration

Abstract The 21st century evapotranspiration (ET) trends over the continental U.S. are assessed using innovative, energy‐based principles. Annual ET is projected to increase with high confidence at the rate of 20 mm for every 1℃ of rise in near‐surface air temperature, or 0.45 or 0.98 mm/year/year, depending on the emission scenario. The ET trajectory is dominated (58%) by the increase of land‐surface net radiative energy. An enhancement of the fraction of energy taken up by ET becomes a more important controller (53%) in late 21st century, under the high emission scenario. This increase is explained by the “tug of war” between atmospheric vapor demand and land‐surface ability to supply water. An assessment of future water availability (precipitation minus ET) shows no significant changes at the continental scale. This outcome nevertheless hides strong spatial variability, emphasizing the role of ET in shaping the distribution of water availability among human populations.

Xu, Donghui↗
DOE OSTI2021

Analysis of Oil and Gas Ethane and Methane Emissions in the Southcentral and Eastern United States Using Four Seasons of Continuous Aircraft Ethane Measurements

In the last decade, much work has been done to better understand methane (CH 4 ) emissions from the oil and gas (O&G) industry in the United States. Ethane (C 2 H 6 ), a gas that is co-emitted with thermogenic sources of CH 4 , is emitted in the US predominantly by the O&G sector. Here, in this study, we perform an inverse analysis on 200 h of atmospheric boundary layer C 2 H 6 measurements to estimate C 2 H 6 emissions from the US O&G sector. Measurements were collected from 2017 to 2019 as part of the Atmospheric Carbon and Transport (ACT) America aircraft campaign and encompass much of the central and eastern United States. We find that for the fall, winter, and spring campaigns, C 2 H 6 data consistently exceeds values that would be expected based on EPA O&G leak rate estimates by more than 50%. C 2 H 6 observations from the summer 2019 data set show significantly lower C 2 H 6 enhancements in the southcentral region that cannot be reconciled with data from the other three seasons, either due to complex meteorological conditions or a temporal shift in the emissions. Combining the fall, winter, and spring C 2 H 6 posterior emissions estimate to an inventory of O&G CH 4 emissions, we estimate that O&G CH 4 emissions are larger than EPA inventory values by 48%–76%. Uncertainties in the gas composition data limit the accuracy of using C 2 H 6 as a proxy for O&G CH 4 emissions. These limits could be resolved retroactively by increasing the availability of industry-collected gas composition data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Current and Future Global Lake Methane Emissions: A Process‐Based Modeling Analysis

Abstract Freshwater ecosystem contributions to the global methane budget remains the most uncertain among natural sources. With warming and accompanying carbon release from thawed permafrost and thermokarst lake expansion, the increase of methane emissions could be large. However, the impact and relative importance of various factors related to warming remain uncertain. Based on diverse lake characteristics incorporated in modeling and observational data, we calibrate and verify a lake biogeochemistry model. The model is then applied to estimate global lake methane emissions and examine the impacts of temperature increase for the first and the last decades of the 21st century under different climate scenarios. We find that current emissions are 24.0 ± 8.4 Tg CH 4 yr −1 from lakes larger than 0.1 km 2 , accounting for 11% of the global total natural source as estimated based on atmospheric inversion. Future projections under the RCP8.5 scenario suggest a 58%–86% growth in emissions from lakes. Our model sensitivity analysis indicates that additional carbon substrates from thawing permafrost may enhance methane production under warming in the Arctic. Warming enhanced methane oxidation in lake water can be an effective sink to reduce the net release from global lakes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗