The Simulation and Subseasonal Forecasting of Hydrological Variables: Insights from a Simple Water Balance Model
Past work has shown that a land surface model’s (LSM’s) implicit (not explicitly coded) relationships between soil moisture and both evapotranspiration (ET) and runoff largely determine the LSM’s hydrological behavior. Here we estimate the relationships that appear to be operating in the real world and compare them to those of the LSM component of a state-of-the-art Earth system model (ESM). The two sets of relationships are determined by calibrating them within a simple water balance model (WBM): once using stream gauge observations from small, unregulated rivers over the eastern half of the U.S., and once using the runoffs generated by the LSM as part of a state-of-the-art atmospheric reanalysis. Hydrological simulations and subseasonal hydrological forecasts performed with the two calibrated versions of the WBM provide two key results. First, the version calibrated to the LSM-generated runoffs does successfully reproduce, to first order, the hydrological behavior of the full LSM within its ESM environment. Second, of the two WBM versions, the one calibrated to the observations reproduces more accurately a broad collection of fully independent streamflow observations as well as a similarly broad collection of in-situ soil moisture measurements. Taken together, the two results suggest that the observations-calibrated ET and runoff efficiency functions do successfully represent, at least to some degree, soil moisture controls over hydrological variability in Nature and can serve as potentially useful targets for further LSM development.