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At least 343 records · Page 19
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Object-Based Evaluation of Tropical Precipitation Systems in DYAMOND Simulations over the Maritime Continent

The present study uses an object-based evaluation metric to examine the precipitation bias over the Maritime Continent in the global cloud-resolving models. We specifically focus on the difference between the models that directly resolve convection and those using convection parameterization. The 40-day hindcast experiments of the DYnamics of the Atmospheric general circulation Modeled On Non-hydrostatic Domain (DYAMOND) intercomparison project are evaluated against the high-resolution satellite rainfall products. The hindcast of the Central Weather Bureau Global Forecast System (CWBGFS) under the DYAMOND protocol is also included. The results indicate that most models simulate insufficient numbers of large precipitation system [object-based precipitation system (OPS), > 370 km in scale], indicating weaker convection organization. The observation indicates that the maximum precipitation within the OPS intensifies with increasing object size. All of the models capture this positive relationship, but most of them overestimate the sensitivity. Most of the models overestimate both the frequency and intensity of small OPS (< 160 km), except for the models with convection parameterization [i.e., CWBGFS, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Integrated Forecasting System (IFS)-9 km]. Although most of the models can reproduce the observed peak time of diurnal precipitation over the land area in the Maritime Continent, the simulated fractional contribution of different sizes of OPS to the total precipitation varies from model to model, and their peak times do not follow the observed ones with delayed peak times as the size of OPS increases from small, mid-size, to large categories. Most of the models reasonably capture the mean diurnal cycle peak time, but only the models with convection parameterization and Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) can represent the diurnal evolution of fractional contribution from different OPSs. The implications of the current results to the upscale processes of the tropical convection systems in the global models are also discussed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Integration of AI/ML with Data Assimilation for Earth System Prediction

Focal Area(s): Development of dynamically consistent AI/ML methods that can integrate with the data assimilation cycle to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of state estimation and prediction at short to medium range forecast horizons. Science Challenge: This white paper addresses a first step toward complete integration of AI/ML and DA. Here, we address model emulation and its application to simple coupled atmosphere-ocean dynamics for use in data assimilation applications.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Constraints on simulated past Arctic amplification and lapse rate feedback from observations

The Arctic has warmed more rapidly than the global mean during the past few decades. The lapse rate feedback (LRF) has been identified as being a large contributor to the Arctic amplification (AA) of climate change. This particular feedback arises from the vertically non-uniform warming of the troposphere, which in the Arctic emerges as strong near-surface and muted free-tropospheric warming. Stable stratification and meridional energy transport are two characteristic processes that are evoked as causes for this vertical warming structure. Our aim is to constrain these governing processes by making use of detailed observations in combination with the large climate model ensemble of the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). We build on the result that CMIP6 models show a large spread in AA and Arctic LRF, which are positively correlated for the historical period of 1951–2014. Thus, we present process-oriented constraints by linking characteristics of the current climate to historical climate simulations. In particular, we compare a large consortium of present-day observations to co-located model data from subsets that show a weak and strong simulated AA and Arctic LRF in the past. Our analyses suggest that the vertical temperature structure of the Arctic boundary layer is more realistically depicted in climate models with weak (w) AA and Arctic LRF (CMIP6/w) in the past. In particular, CMIP6/w models show stronger inversions in the present climate for boreal autumn and winter and over sea ice, which is more consistent with the observations. These results are based on observations from the year-long Multidisciplinary Drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition in the central Arctic, long-term measurements at the Utqiagvik site in Alaska, USA, and dropsonde temperature profiling from aircraft campaigns in the Fram Strait. In addition, the atmospheric energy transport from lower latitudes that can further mediate the warming structure in the free troposphere is more realistically represented by CMIP6/w models. In particular, CMIP6/w models systemically simulate a weaker Arctic atmospheric energy transport convergence in the present climate for boreal autumn and winter, which is more consistent with fifth generation reanalysis of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ERA5). We further show a positive relationship between the magnitude of the present-day transport convergence and the strength of past AA. With respect to the Arctic LRF, we find links between the changes in transport pathways that drive vertical warming structures and local differences in the LRF. This highlights the mediating influence of advection on the Arctic LRF and motivates deeper studies to explicitly link spatial patterns of Arctic feedbacks to changes in the large-scale circulation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Multimodel simulation of vertical gas transfer in a temperate lake

In recent decades, several lake models of varying complexity have been developed and incorporated in numerical weather prediction systems and climate models. To foster enhanced forecasting ability and verification, improvement of these lake models remains essential. This especially applies to the limited simulation capabilities of biogeochemical processes in lakes and greenhouse gas exchanges with the atmosphere. Here we present multi-model simulations of physical variables and dissolved gas dynamics in a temperate lake (Harp Lake, Canada). The five models (ALBM, FLake, LAKE, LAKEoneD, MTCR-1) considered within this most recent round of the Lake Model Intercomparison Project (LakeMIP) all captured the seasonal temperature variability well. In contrast, none of the models is able to reproduce the exact dates of ice-cover and ice-off, leading to considerable errors in the simulation of eddy diffusivity around those dates.We then conducted an additional modeling experiment with a diffusing passive tracer to isolate the effect of the eddy diffusivity on gas concentration. Remarkably, sophisticated k -" models do not demonstrate a significant difference in the vertical diffusion of a passive tracer compared to models with much simpler turbulence closures. All models simulate less intensive spring overturn compared to autumn. Reduced mixing in the models consequently leads to the accumulation of the passive tracer distribution in the water column. The lake models with a comprehensive biogeochemical module, such as ALBM and LAKE, predict dissolved oxygen dynamics adequate to the observed data. However, for the surface carbon dioxide concentration the correlation between modeled (ALBM, LAKE) and observed data is weak (~0.3). Overall our results indicate the need to improve the representation of physical and biogeochemical processes in lake models, thereby contributing to enhanced weather prediction and climate projection capabilities.

Guseva, Sofya↗
DOE OSTI2022

Integrating Reanalysis and Satellite Cloud Information to Estimate Surface Downward Long-Wave Radiation

The estimation of downward long-wave radiation (DLR) at the surface is very important for the understanding of the Earth’s radiative budget with implications in surface–atmosphere exchanges, climate variability, and global warming. Theoretical radiative transfer and observationally based studies identify the crucial role of clouds in modulating the temporal and spatial variability of DLR. In this study, a new machine learning algorithm that uses multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) and the combination of near-surface meteorological data with satellite cloud information is proposed. The new algorithm is compared with the current operational formulation used by the European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT) Satellite Application Facility on Land Surface Analysis (LSA-SAF). Both algorithms use near-surface temperature and dewpoint temperature along with total column water vapor from the latest European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis ERA5 and satellite cloud information from the Meteosat Second Generation. The algorithms are trained and validated using both ECMWF-ERA5 and DLR acquired from 23 ground stations as part of the Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN) and the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility. Results show that the MARS algorithm generally improves DLR estimation in comparison with other model estimates, particularly when trained with observations. When considering all the validation data, root mean square errors (RMSEs) of 18.76, 23.55, and 22.08 W·m –2 are obtained for MARS, operational LSA-SAF, and ERA5, respectively. The added value of using the satellite cloud information is accessed by comparing with estimates driven by ERA5 total cloud cover, showing an increase of 17% of the RMSE. The consistency of MARS estimate is also tested against an independent dataset of 52 ground stations (from FLUXNET2015), further supporting the good performance of the proposed model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Sensitivity of Wind Turbine Array Downstream Effects to the Parameterization Used in WRF

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model has been extensively used for wind energy applications, and current releases include a scheme that can be applied to examine the effects of wind turbine arrays on the atmospheric flow and electricity generation from wind turbines. Herein we present a high-resolution simulation using two different wind farm parameterizations: 1) the “Fitch” parameterization that is included in WRF releases and 2) the recently developed Explicit Wake Parameterization (EWP) scheme. We compare the schemes using a single yearlong simulation for a domain centered on the highest density of current turbine deployments in the contiguous United States (Iowa). Pairwise analyses are applied to diagnose the downstream wake effects and impact of wind turbine arrays on near-surface climate conditions. On average, use of the EWP scheme results in small-magnitude wake effects within wind farm arrays and faster recovery of full WT array wakes. This in turn leads to smaller impacts on near-surface climate variables and reduced array–array interactions, which at a systemwide scale lead to summertime capacity factors (i.e., the electrical power produced relative to nameplate installed capacity) that are 2%–3% higher than those from the more commonly applied Fitch parameterization. It is currently not possible to make recommendations with regard to which wind farm parameterization exhibits higher fidelity or to draw inferences with regard to whether the relative performance may vary with prevailing climate conditions and/or wind turbine deployment configuration. However, the sensitivities documented herein to the wind farm parameterization are of sufficient magnitude to potentially influence wind turbine array siting decisions. Thus, our research findings imply high value in undertaking combined long-term high-fidelity observational studies in support of model validation and verification.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Influence of Lake Ice Biases in Reanalysis Data on Downscaled Climate Simulations over the Great Lakes Region

This data package contains observation-based and model-simulated datasets (all provided in NetCDF format) for evaluating how wintertime lake-ice representation affects regional weather and climate over the Laurentian Great Lakes (freshwater lake ecosystem) during the high–ice-cover winter of 2009. The observational component includes: (1) Stage IV gridded precipitation at 4 km, hourly resolution for January–February 2009 over the Great Lakes region (radar–gauge multisensor precipitation analyses); (2) Great Lakes Surface Environmental Analysis (GLSEA) satellite-derived lake-ice coverage at 1.3 km, daily resolution for the 2009 winter months, providing ice coverage over Lakes Superior, Michigan, Huron, Erie, and Ontario; and (3) in situ measurements at the Standard Rock site on Lake Superior from the Great Lakes Evaporation Network (GLEN) at hourly resolution, including near-surface atmospheric variables and sensible and latent heat fluxes (air–lake exchange) at a fixed point location. The modeling component provides corresponding fields from two simulations, both archived at 4 km, hourly resolution: a standalone Weather Research Forecasting model (WRF) run driven by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis 5 (ERA5), and a two-way coupled model using WRF and the Finite Volume Community Ocean Model (WRF-FVCOM, a 3-D hydrodynamic lake model). These outputs include variables relevant to air–lake interaction and lake-effect processes (e.g., near-surface temperature, humidity, wind, precipitation, and surface turbulent fluxes), enabling direct comparison with the observational datasets. Users can analyze and visualize these NetCDF files with common tools such as Python (e.g., xarray, netCDF4, numpy, pandas), NCO/CDO, Panoply, or ncview; NetCDF variables can also be converted to other formats (e.g., CSV, GeoTIFF) using these utilities.

EARTH SCIENCE > ATMOSPHERE > ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATU↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation and Intercomparison of Small Uncrewed Aircraft Systems Used for Atmospheric Research

Abstract Small uncrewed aircraft systems (sUAS) are regularly being used to conduct atmospheric research and are starting to be used as a data source for informing weather models through data assimilation. However, only a limited number of studies have been conducted to evaluate the performance of these systems and assess their ability to replicate measurements from more traditional sensors such as radiosondes and towers. In the current work, we use data collected in central Oklahoma over a 2-week period to offer insight into the performance of five different sUAS platforms and associated sensors in measuring key weather data. This includes data from three rotary-wing and two fixed-wing sUAS and included two commercially available systems and three university-developed research systems. Flight data were compared to regular radiosondes launched at the flight location, tower observations, and intercompared with data from other sUAS platforms. All platforms were shown to measure atmospheric state with reasonable accuracy, though there were some consistent biases detected for individual platforms. This information can be used to inform future studies using these platforms and is currently being used to provide estimated error covariances as required in support of assimilation of sUAS data into weather forecasting systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Subseasonal Representation and Predictability of North American Weather Regimes Using Cluster Analysis

Abstract This study focuses on assessing the representation and predictability of North American weather regimes, which are persistent large-scale atmospheric patterns, in a set of initialized subseasonal reforecasts created using the Community Earth System Model, version 2 (CESM2). The k -means clustering was used to extract four key North American (10°–70°N, 150°–40°W) weather regimes within ERA5 reanalysis, which were used to interpret CESM2 subseasonal forecast performance. Results show that CESM2 can recreate the climatology of the four main North American weather regimes with skill but exhibits biases during later lead times with overoccurrence of the West Coast high regime and underoccurrence of the Greenland high and Alaskan ridge regimes. Overall, the West Coast high and Pacific trough regimes exhibited higher predictability within CESM2, partly related to El Niño. Despite biases, several reforecasts were skillful and exhibited high predictability during later lead times, which could be partly attributed to skillful representation of the atmosphere from the tropics to extratropics upstream of North America. The high predictability at the subseasonal time scale of these case-study examples was manifested as an “ensemble realignment,” in which most ensemble members agreed on a prediction despite ensemble trajectory dispersion during earlier lead times. Weather regimes were also shown to project distinct temperature and precipitation anomalies across North America that largely agree with observational products. This study further demonstrates that unsupervised learning methods can be used to uncover sources and limits of subseasonal predictability, along with systematic biases present in numerical prediction systems. Significance Statement North American weather regimes are large-scale atmospheric patterns that can persist for several days. Their skillful subseasonal (2 weeks or greater) prediction can provide valuable lead time to prepare for temperature and precipitation anomalies that can stress energy and water resources. The purpose of this study was to assess the climatological representation and subseasonal predictability of four key North American weather regimes using a research subseasonal prediction system and clustering analysis. We found that the Pacific trough and West Coast high regimes exhibited higher predictability than other regimes and that skillful representation of conditions across the tropics and extratropics can increase predictability during later lead times. Future work will quantify causal pathways associated with high predictability.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Arctic Tipping Points Triggering Global Change (LDRD Final Report)

The Arctic is warming and feedbacks in the coupled Earth system may be driving the Arctic to tipping events that could have critical downstream impacts for the rest of the globe. In this project we have focused on analyzing sea ice variability and loss in the coupled Earth system Summer sea ice loss is happening rapidly and although the loss may be smooth and reversible, it has significant consequences for other Arctic systems as well as geopolitical and economic implications. Accurate seasonal predictions of sea ice minimum extent and long-term estimates of timing for a seasonally ice-free Arctic depend on a better understanding of the factors influencing sea ice dynamics and variation in this strongly coupled system. Under this project we have investigated the most influential factors in accurate predictions of September Arctic sea ice extent using machine learning models trained separately on observational data and on simulation data from five E3SM historical ensembles. Monthly averaged data from June, July, and August for a selection of ice, ocean, and atmosphere variables were used to train a random forest regression model. Gini importance measures were computed for each input feature with the testing data. We found that sea ice volume is most important earlier in the season (June) and sea ice extent became a more important predictor closer to September. Results from this study provide insight into how feature importance changes with forecast length and illustrates differences between observational data and simulated Earth system data. We have additionally performed a global sensitivity analysis (GSA) using a fully coupled ultra- low resolution configuration E3SM. To our knowledge, this is the first global sensitivity analysis involving the fully-coupled E3SM Earth system model. We have found that parameter variations show significant impact on the Arctic climate state and atmospheric parameters related to cloud parameterizations are the most significant. We also find significant interactions between parameters from different components of E3SM. The results of this study provide invaluable insight into the relative importance of various parameters from the sea ice, atmosphere and ocean components of the E3SM (including cross-component parameter interactions) on various Arctic-focused quantities of interest (QOIs).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Influences of Cloud Microphysics on the Components of Solar Irradiance in the WRF-Solar Model

An accurate forecast of Global Horizontal solar Irradiance (GHI) and Direct Normal Irradiance (DNI) in cloudy conditions remains a major challenge in the solar energy industry. This study focuses on the impact of cloud microphysics on GHI and its partition into DNI and Diffuse Horizontal Irradiance (DHI) using the Weather Research and Forecasting model specifically designed for solar radiation applications (WRF-Solar) and seven microphysical schemes. Three stratocumulus (Sc) and five shallow cumulus (Cu) cases are simulated and evaluated against measurements at the US Department of Energy’s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility, Southern Great Plains (SGP) site. Results show that different microphysical schemes lead to spreads in simulated solar irradiance components up to 75% and 350% from their ensemble means in the Cu and Sc cases, respectively. The Cu cases have smaller microphysical sensitivity due to a limited cloud fraction and smaller domain-averaged cloud water mixing ratio compared to Sc cases. Cloud properties also influence the partition of GHI into DNI and DHI, and the model simulates better GHI than DNI and DHI due to a non-physical error compensation between DNI and DHI. The microphysical schemes that produce more accurate liquid water paths and effective radii of cloud droplets have a better overall performance.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Phoenix Dust Storm (PHX-DUST) Scale: A Cooperatively Developed Dust Storm Scale for Phoenix, Arizona

Using extensive localized meteorological and air quality data for central Arizona from 2010 to 2023, we create a postevent dust storm scale for use by the primary stakeholders in central Arizona for the Phoenix metropolitan area called the Phoenix Dust Storm (PHX-DUST) scale. To ensure usability across a wide spectrum of users, a core concept was to “keep it simple.” The PHX-DUST scale is based on (i) maximum dust concentration for particulate matter (PM10) across the network in micrograms per cubic meter which determines category, e.g., “category 5 (the highest observed category)” and category 4; (ii) the number of network monitors achieving dust concentrations above a threshold of 500 μg m−3 (categorized as “widespread” or “isolated,” as measures of spatial extent); (iii) a duration parameter (which determines “long duration” or “short duration”); and (iv) a measure of wind speed over the affected area (maximum wind gust recorded over the network, which may not be the maximum wind of the storm). Using this index for the 189 dust storms impacting the Phoenix metropolitan area for the period 2010–23, the most severe dust storm occurred on 5 July 2011 and is classified as a “Category 5, Widespread, Long-Duration High-Gust” event. This initial attempt at defining the PHX-DUST scale holds valuable applications for research, education, and applied analyses. It demonstrates that a consortium of interested groups can effectively work to create products benefiting the weather community and general public. Here, the PHX-DUST scale can also serve as a foundational framework for application in other regions where dust storms pose a threat to the well-being of populations, infrastructure, and ecosystems.

Atmosphere↗
DOE OSTI2023

Puerto Rico Historical Climate Analysis: A closer look at complex tropical terrain

Small tropical islands like Puerto Rico are especially vulnerable to climate change impacts, yet are often underrepresented in most datasets because the spatial resolution is too coarse to sufficiently cover their complex terrain. This study was done to better understand how the climate has changed in the various regions of Puerto Rico, which will support a transition to renewable energy and aid in projecting future climate impacts on the residents and land they live on. This study used multiple datasets including Daymet, a daily surface weather and climatological summary; European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis version 5 (ERA5); and station observations. The climate variables examined here include minimum and maximum near-surface air temperature, daily precipitation, incident shortwave radiation, and large-scale upper atmosphere conditions. The time periods cover the years 1950–2019. Results in both Daymet and station observations show long-term warming trends throughout every season. In particular, the minimum winter temperatures increased the most compared with maximum and mean air temperature. Northeast Puerto Rico, where the majority of the island’s population is located, experienced the largest warming. Summertime precipitation has decreased over time, and spring and fall precipitation has increased. The largest increase in fall is because there has been more available precipitable water, lower sea-level pressure, and favorable cyclonic circulations from the trade winds over the past seven decades. Overall, wet days are getting wetter, while dry days are getting drier. While there are good solar energy potential, we see a long-term decreasing trend in shortwave radiation over time in all seasons across entire island, possibly due to the increase of cloud cover.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Differences in cluster and internal wake effects from mesoscale and large-eddy simulations off the US East Coast

Mesoscale simulations are increasingly used to estimate wake effects within and between large wind farms, despite limited validation for large-scale wake effects. This study evaluates the capabilities and limitations of mesoscale simulations in capturing wake-induced impacts on wind turbine power production through a direct comparison with large-domain large-eddy simulations (LESs) for three planned offshore wind farms under realistic atmospheric conditions and a range of atmospheric stabilities. We assess mesoscale performance in replicating wake characteristics behind single and multiple turbine clusters and quantify the resulting variability in mean turbine power. Results show that mesoscale Weather Research and Forecasting simulations with the Fitch wind farm parameterization capture key features of the velocity deficit downstream of both single and multiple wind farms, with mean root-mean-square errors near 5 % and good agreement with stability-driven wake behavior. However, in these simulations, the mesoscale Fitch parameterization underestimates power losses from internal wake effects, particularly when turbines align with the prevailing wind direction or under stable stratification. In these conditions, individual wakes persist and dominate downstream power deficits. The coarse resolution of the mesoscale simulations limits their ability to resolve individual wind turbine wakes that drive power fluctuations within wind farms. Nonetheless, mesoscale simulations can yield accurate estimates of combined wake losses from internal and cluster effects across some wind direction sectors, where errors in wake representation may cancel each other out. These findings underscore the strengths of mesoscale simulations for capturing broader wake patterns while highlighting their limitations for modeling turbine-level power losses. Future work should explore hybrid modeling approaches to capture both long-range cluster wake propagation and localized internal wake dynamics.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Scalable Real-Time Data Assimilation Framework for Predicting Turbulent Atmosphere Dynamics

AI-based foundation models like FourCastNet, GraphCast are revolutionizing weather and climate predictions but are not yet ready for operational use. Their limitation lies in the absence of a data assimilation system to incorporate real-time Earth system observations, crucial for accurately forecasting events like tropical cyclones. To overcome these obstacles, we introduce a generic real-time data assimilation framework and demonstrate its end-to-end performance on the Frontier supercomputer. This framework comprises two primary modules: an ensemble score filter (EnSF), which significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art data assimilation method, and a vision transformer-based surrogate capable of real-time adaptation through the integration of observational data. We demonstrate both the strong and weak scaling of our framework up to 1024 GPUs on the Exascale supercomputer, Frontier. Our results not only illustrate the framework's exceptional scalability on high-performance computing systems, but also demonstrate the importance of supercomputers in real-time data assimilation for weather and climate predictions.

Lu, Dan↗
DOE OSTI2023

Machine learning models inaccurately predict current and future high-latitude C balances

The high-latitude carbon (C) cycle is a key feedback to the global climate system, yet because of system complexity and data limitations, there is currently disagreement over whether the region is a source or sink of C. Recent advances in big data analytics and computing power have popularized the use of machine learning (ML) algorithms to upscale site measurements of ecosystem processes, and in some cases forecast the response of these processes to climate change. Due to data limitations, however, ML model predictions of these processes are almost never validated with independent datasets. To better understand and characterize the limitations of these methods, we develop an approach to independently evaluate ML upscaling and forecasting. We mimic data-driven upscaling and forecasting efforts by applying ML algorithms to different subsets of regional process-model simulation gridcells, and then test ML performance using the remaining gridcells. In this study, we simulate C fluxes and environmental data across Alaska using ecosys, a process-rich terrestrial ecosystem model, and then apply boosted regression tree ML algorithms to training data configurations that mirror and expand upon existing AmeriFLUX eddy-covariance data availability. We first show that a ML model trained using ecosys outputs from currently-available Alaska AmeriFLUX sites incorrectly predicts that Alaska is presently a modeled net C source. Increased spatial coverage of the training dataset improves ML predictions, halving the bias when 240 modeled sites are used instead of 15. However, even this more accurate ML model incorrectly predicts Alaska C fluxes under 21st century climate change because of changes in atmospheric CO 2 , litter inputs, and vegetation composition that have impacts on C fluxes which cannot be inferred from the training data. Our results provide key insights to future C flux upscaling efforts and expose the potential for inaccurate ML upscaling and forecasting of high-latitude C cycle dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Characterization of Surface Heterogeneity-Induced Convection Using Cluster Analysis

Land-atmosphere interactions and boundary layer processes often control the formation of shallow clouds and subsequently deep convective precipitation over the Southern Great Plains. In this study, we examine the impacts of large-scale advection on the cloud populations and land-atmospheric coupling observed during the Holistic Interactions of Shallow Clouds, Aerosols, and Land-Ecosystems (HI-SCALE) field campaign in 2016. In this work, we performed two Large Eddy Simulations (LES) using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model for a day in which the transition from clear-sky to shallow precipitating clouds and isolated deep convection was observed. The control simulation reproduced the overall distribution of cloud populations by using realistic soil conditions with an interactive land model. In the sensitivity simulation where large-scale advection is removed, a strong relationship between the land and boundary layer is found. To study the timing, location, and intensity of convective initiation and the relationship of clouds with land surface properties, a cluster analysis of equivalent potential temperature is performed for the simulation without large-scale advection. That analysis shows that convective clouds first form over regions with higher surface sensible heat flux. Precipitation from those convective clouds likely triggers new updrafts nearby about two hours later through the lifting associated with cold pools. Furthermore, the cluster analysis also shows that in addition to the spatial pattern of soil moisture, land use and soil texture in western Oklahoma also influence the location of convective initiation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Cold-Season Precipitation Sensitivity to Microphysical Parameterizations: Hydrologic Evaluations Leveraging Snow Lidar Datasets

Abstract Cloud microphysical processes are an important facet of atmospheric modeling, as they can control the initiation and rates of snowfall. Thus, parameterizations of these processes have important implications for modeling seasonal snow accumulation. We conduct experiments with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF V4.3.3) Model using three different microphysics parameterizations, including a sophisticated new scheme (ISHMAEL). Simulations are conducted for two cold seasons (2018 and 2019) centered on the Colorado Rockies’ ∼750-km 2 East River watershed. Precipitation efficiencies are quantified using a drying-ratio mass budget approach and point evaluations are performed against three NRCS SNOTEL stations. Precipitation and meteorological outputs from each are used to force a land surface model (Noah-MP) so that peak snow accumulation can be compared against airborne snow lidar products. We find that microphysical parameterization choice alone has a modest impact on total precipitation on the order of ±3% watershed-wide, and as high as 15% for certain regions, similar to other studies comparing the same parameterizations. Precipitation biases evaluated against SNOTEL are 15% ± 13%. WRF Noah-MP configurations produced snow water equivalents with good correlations with airborne lidar products at a 1-km spatial resolution: Pearson’s r values of 0.9, RMSEs between 8 and 17 cm, and percent biases of 3%–15%. Noah-MP with precipitation from the PRISM geostatistical precipitation product leads to a peak SWE underestimation of 32% in both years examined, and a weaker spatial correlation than the WRF configurations. We fall short of identifying a clearly superior microphysical parameterization but conclude that snow lidar is a valuable nontraditional indicator of model performance.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗