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At least 343 records · Page 19

Role of reinforcement learning for risk-based robust control of cyber-physical energy systems

Critical infrastructures such as cyber-physical energy systems (CPS-E) integrate information flow and physical operations that are vulnerable to natural and targeted failures. Safe, secure, and reliable operation and control of CPS-E is critical to ensure societal well-being and economic prosperity. Automated control is key for real-time operations and may be mathematically cast as a sequential decision-making problem under uncertainty. Emergence of data-driven techniques for decision making under uncertainty, such as reinforcement learning (RL), have led to promising advances for addressing sequential decision-making problems for risk-based robust CPS-E control. However, existing research challenges include understanding the applicability of RL methods across diverse CPS-E applications, addressing the effect of risk preferences across multiple RL methods, and development of open-source domain-aware simulation environments for RL experimentation within a CPS-E context. This article systematically analyzes the applicability of four types of RL methods (model-free, model-based, hybrid model-free and model-based, and hierarchical) for risk-based robust CPS-E control. Problem features and solution stability for the RL methods are also discussed. We demonstrate and compare the performance of multiple RL methods under different risk specifications (risk-averse, risk-neutral, and risk-seeking) through the development and application of an open-source simulation environment. Motivating numerical simulation examples include representative single-zone and multizone building control use cases. Finally, six key insights for future research and broader adoption of RL methods are identified, with specific emphasis on problem features, algorithmic explainability, and solution stability.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Residential HVAC Fault Data Collection Plan – Refrigerant Undercharge and Overcharge Faults

Heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems can develop faults due to poor installation practices or gradual wear and tear, leading to decreased HVAC system’s efficiency, compromised thermal comfort, and shortened equipment lifespan (EERE, 2018). Automated fault detection and diagnosis (AFDD) technologies offer a solution by identifying energy-wasting HVAC faults, such as inadequate indoor airflow and incorrect refrigerant charge, and guiding technicians to enhance system efficiency. In the realm of residential HVAC, AFDD can be implemented through various fault detection and diagnosis capabilities, sensor configurations, and target applications. These technologies typically fall into three categories: smart diagnostic tools, original equipment manufacturer (OEM)-embedded tools, and add-on tools. Smart diagnostic tools employ temporarily installed sensors to directly measure HVAC system characteristics, while OEM-embedded tools utilize factory-installed sensors to identify faults or assess system performance. However, both these types of AFDD technologies are often only accessible for high-end HVAC equipment or require additional sensor installation by qualified technicians, resulting in high investment costs and limited applicability for low-income residential buildings. On the other hand, add-on tools rely solely on data from smart thermostats and meters to detect faults by continuously analyzing equipment runtime or energy usage. As smart thermostat and meter costs decrease and their prevalence increases, these tools can be readily deployed in low-income residential buildings. However, they possess limited capabilities as they rely solely on basic trend analysis. Enhancing such tools with advanced machine learning algorithms can significantly improve their effectiveness.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Networks and interfaces as catalysts for polymer materials innovation

Autonomous experimental systems offer a compelling glimpse into a future where closed-loop, iterative cycles—performed by machines and guided by artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML)—play a foundational role in materials research and development. This perspective draws attention to the roles of networks and interfaces—of and between humans and machines—for the purpose of generating knowledge and accelerating innovation. Polymers, a class of materials with massive global impact, present a unique opportunity for the application of informatics and automation to pressing societal challenges. To develop these networks and interfaces in polymer science, the Community Resource for Innovation in Polymer Technology (CRIPT)—a polymer data ecosystem based on novel polymer data model, representation, search, and visualization technologies—is introduced. The ongoing co-design efforts engage stakeholders in industry, academia, and government to uncover rapidly actionable, high-impact opportunities to build networks, bridge interfaces, and catalyze innovation in polymer technology.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Automated Integration of Continental-Scale Observations in Near-Real Time for Simulation and Analysis of Biosphere–Atmosphere Interactions

The National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) is a continental-scale observatory with sites across the US collecting standardized ecological observations that will operate for multiple decades. To maximize the utility of NEON data, we envision edge computing systems that gather, calibrate, aggregate, and ingest measurements in an integrated fashion. Edge systems will employ machine learning methods to cross-calibrate, gap-fill and provision data in near-real time to the NEON Data Portal and to High Performance Computing (HPC) systems, running ensembles of Earth system models (ESMs) that assimilate the data. For the first time gridded EC data products and response functions promise to offset pervasive observational biases through evaluating, benchmarking, optimizing parameters, and training new machine learning parameterizations within ESMs all at the same model-grid scale. Leveraging open-source software for EC data analysis, we are already building software infrastructure for integration of near-real time data streams into the International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) package for use by the wider research community. We will present a perspective on the design and integration of end-to-end infrastructure for data acquisition, edge computing, HPC simulation, analysis, and validation, where Artificial Intelligence (AI) approaches are used throughout the distributed workflow to improve accuracy and computational performance.

Durden, David J.↗

MetaboDirect: an analytical pipeline for the processing of FT-ICR MS-based metabolomic data

Background: Microbiomes are now recognized as the main drivers of ecosystem function ranging from the oceans and soils to humans and bioreactors. However, a grand challenge in microbiome science is to characterize and quantify the chemical currencies of organic matter (i.e., metabolites) that microbes respond to and alter. Critical to this has been the development of Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (FT-ICR MS), which has drastically increased molecular characterization of complex organic matter samples, but challenges users with hundreds of millions of data points where readily available, user-friendly, and customizable software tools are lacking. Results: Here, we build on years of analytical experience with diverse sample types to develop MetaboDirect, an open-source, command-line-based pipeline for the analysis (e.g., chemodiversity analysis, multivariate statistics), visualization (e.g., Van Krevelen diagrams, elemental and molecular class composition plots), and presentation of direct injection high-resolution FT-ICR MS data sets after molecular formula assignment has been performed. When compared to other available FT-ICR MS software, MetaboDirect is superior in that it requires a single line of code to launch a fully automated framework for the generation and visualization of a wide range of plots, with minimal coding experience required. Among the tools evaluated, MetaboDirect is also uniquely able to automatically generate biochemical transformation networks (ab initio) based on mass differences (mass difference network-based approach) that provide an experimental assessment of metabolite connections within a given sample or a complex metabolic system, thereby providing important information about the nature of the samples and the set of microbial reactions or pathways that gave rise to them. Finally, for more experienced users, MetaboDirect allows users to customize plots, outputs, and analyses. Conclusion: Application of MetaboDirect to FT-ICR MS-based metabolomic data sets from a marine phage-bacterial infection experiment and a Sphagnum leachate microbiome incubation experiment showcase the exploration capabilities of the pipeline that will enable the research community to evaluate and interpret their data in greater depth and in less time. It will further advance our knowledge of how microbial communities influence and are influenced by the chemical makeup of the surrounding system. The source code and User’s guide of MetaboDirect are freely available through (https://github.com/Coayala/MetaboDirect) and (https://metabodirect.readthedocs.io/en/latest/), respectively.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Building workflows for an interactive human-in-the-loop automated experiment (hAE) in STEM-EELS

Exploring the structural, chemical, and physical properties of matter on the nano- and atomic scales has become possible with the recent advances in aberration-corrected electron energy-loss spectroscopy (EELS) in scanning transmission electron microscopy (STEM). However, the current paradigm of STEM-EELS relies on the classical rectangular grid sampling, in which all surface regions are assumed to be of equal a priori interest. However, this is typically not the case for real-world scenarios, where phenomena of interest are concentrated in a small number of spatial locations, such as interfaces, structural and topological defects, and multi-phase inclusions. One of the foundational problems is the discovery of nanometer- or atomic-scale structures having specific signatures in EELS spectra. Herein, we systematically explore the hyperparameters controlling deep kernel learning (DKL) discovery workflows for STEM-EELS and identify the role of the local structural descriptors and acquisition functions in experiment progression. In agreement with the actual experiment, we observe that for certain parameter combinations the experiment path can be trapped in the local minima. We demonstrate the approaches for monitoring the automated experiment in the real and feature space of the system and knowledge acquisition of the DKL model. Based on these, we construct intervention strategies defining the human-in-the-loop automated experiment (hAE). This approach can be further extended to other techniques including 4D STEM and other forms of spectroscopic imaging. The hAE library is available on Github at https://github.com/utkarshp1161/hAE/tree/main/hAE.

Pratiush, Utkarsh [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, ↗

Diaspora: Resilience-Enabling Services for Real-Time Distributed Workflows

The need for real-time processing to enable automated decision making and experimental steering has driven a shift from high-performance computing workflows on a centralized system to a distributed approach that integrates remote data sources, edge devices, and diverse compute facilities. Under this paradigm, data can be processed close to the source where it is generated, thus reducing latency and bandwidth usage. System resilience is thus a key challenge, requiring distributed workflows to survive component failures and to meet stringent quality-of-service requirements, which results in the need to mitigate anomalies such as congestion and low availability of resources. To address these challenges, we propose Diaspora, a unified resilience framework that is inspired by event-driven communication patterns used in public clouds. Specifically, we propose an event fabric that extends across sites, facilities, and computations to provide timely, reliable, and accurate information about data, application, and resource status. On top of the event fabric, we build resilience-enabling services that combine QoS-aware data streaming, resilient data views, resilient compute and data resources, and anomaly detection and prediction, all of which collectively enhance workflow resilience for these scientific cases.

Rao, Nageswara↗

Residential Building Energy Efficiency Field Studies: Low-Rise Multifamily

In recent years, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has conducted a series of research studies to validate energy efficient building technologies in the field. Much of the work has focused on single-family construction, and some has also addressed commercial energy codes. The work detailed in this DOE-funded study (EE0007616) focuses on low-rise multifamily buildings (three stories or fewer above grade) in various regions of the United States, and reports on how state-level building codes are being implemented, both in terms of observed characteristics and also in terms of estimated energy impacts. Nearly 100 buildings across four states—Illinois, Minnesota, Oregon, and Washington—were sampled, which represent a range of climate types from mild temperature to very cold continental. Both common entry and outdoor entry buildings were included, and a parallel research project evaluated envelope air tightness and current still-evolving air tightness testing methods. Finally, a set of structured interviews of building designers and other relevant professionals was carried to out to gain more insight into this market. To the greatest extent possible, the methodology developed under the project for low-rise multifamily buildings mirrored the approach established by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) for single-family residential buildings (https://www.energy.gov/eere/buildings/downloads/residential-building-energy-code-field-study). This included the general approach to sampling, recruitment, and data collection, as well as data analysis and presentation. The range of permitting dates for the sites encompassed two energy code cycles in most regions. All states in the study had adopted a variation of the International Energy Conservation Code (IECC) for the structure of their state code. The low-rise multifamily occupancy presents a hybrid building type: most of the building’s conditioned floor area was covered by the residential chapter of the code while portions of the building (such as corridors and common spaces) fell under the commercial code chapter. The key items assessed in this work were: Building Shell—exterior wall insulation, ceiling insulation, foundation insulation, windows. Common Areas—HVAC and lighting. Living Units—lighting, ventilation. A few items were not assessed in detail, given their relative paucity in this occupancy type; these included duct leakage, pipe insulation, and hot water circulation controls. Building characteristics were collected via a combination of architectural, mechanical, electrical, and plumbing plan reviews and field inspections, and entered into a spreadsheet-based tool that was later queried to build a database. Data went through quality control both upon arrival and via a later semi-automated review and assurance process. Most of the data are presented graphically so that the reader can quickly assess compliance with the applicable energy codes (both by state and by code year). As a final step, EnergyPlus™ simulations were created for all buildings in the study to estimate both the as-found energy use intensity (EUI) and the energy and CO 2 that could be saved if features that were found to not meet code minimums were brought up to code. The savings estimates were tabulated for each of the four states in the study. The research team found that the single-family approach was largely applicable to low-rise multifamily buildings. This applies to both the data collection and the prototype EUI analysis. Most of the occupied space is living units and falls under residential energy codes, and many characteristics use similar envelope construction and relatively straightforward mechanical systems and lighting. One of the most challenging aspects of this work was to build an effective spreadsheet-based data collection instrument that could allow efficient collection of both building plan and field data. The research team is of the view that other methods could be equally effective if the work is done carefully with diligent quality control. The primary findings for the work center around the thermal envelope and mechanical systems and lighting at the sites: For thermal envelope components, the majority of buildings met or were better than the prescriptive code.This suggests that building designers and builders are aware of code requirements. In some cases, surveyed buildings were designed to qualify for energy efficiency certification programs. These buildings made up at least 20% of sampled buildings in each state. Almost all buildings met mechanical system efficiency requirements (for both living units and common areas). In some cases, sites employed systems that were considerably more efficient than required by the applicable energy code. Dwelling units had a majority of high-efficacy lighting, often in excess of the state’s residential code requirements. While high-efficacy fixtures were also typical in common areas (corridors and stairwells), lighting power densities (LPDs) in these areas were sometimes higher than levels dictated by the applicable part of the state commercial energy code. The simulation models run on a series of low-rise multifamily prototypes, informed by a composite of the field data collected, calculated annual EUIs of between 20 and 50 kBtu/ft2-yr, with the range representing the effects of both building characteristics and building location (climate zone). A detailed process (based on simulations of prototype buildings) was used to estimate the amount of avoided energy use that would occur if 100% adherence to energy codes were attained. The results indicated modest savings are attainable for items such as window thermal performance and common area lighting. The result is overall only a modest potential for additional energy savings, averaging about 10% of EUI.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Modelica-json: Transforming energy models to digitize the control delivery process

Building simulation models are typically not used to generate the documentation required for bidding and project delivery of commercial building systems, or for their semantic modeling and commissioning. This paper presents a software tool that aids in digitizing the control delivery process, spanning simulation during design to implementation and formal verification during commissioning. The tool can generate from Modelica models digital documentation of control sequences. This digital documentation, along with other project drawings and specifications can be used for project bidding. It can also be used for implementation of control sequences through machineto-machine translation to commercial legacy control products, for which we are currently developing the proposed ASHRAE Standard 231P based on the presented work. Moreover, as-installed control sequences can be formally verified against the design specification, and a semantic model in Brick can be exported to aid in configuration of building analytics and fault detection. The paper presents what we believe is the first translation of a Modelica-implemented control sequence to a native implementation on a commercial control platform, using the webCTRL product line from Automated Logic. The paper also shows how a webCTRL implementation can be formally verified against its Modelica specification. These use cases have all been demonstrated with a prototype implementation that is now being further developed.

Wetter, Michael↗

Towards a Software Development Framework for Interconnected Science Ecosystems

The innovative science of the future must be multi-domain and interconnected to usher in the next generation of “self-driving” laboratories enabling consequential discoveries and transformative inventions. Such a disparate and interconnected ecosystem of scientific instruments will need to evolve using a system-of-systems (SoS) approach. The key to enabling application integration with such an SoS will be the use of Software Development Kits (SDKs). Currently, SDKs facilitate scientific research breakthroughs via algorithmic automation, databases and storage, optimization and structure, pervasive environmental monitoring, among others. However, existing SDKs lack instrument-interoperability and reusability capabilities, do not effectively work in an open federated architectural environment, and are largely isolated within silos of the respective scientific disciplines. Inspired by the scalable SoS framework, this work proposes the development of INTERSECT-SDK to provide a coherent environment for multi-domain scientific applications to benefit from the open federated architecture in an interconnected ecosystem of instruments. This approach will decompose functionality into loosely coupled software services for interoperability among several solutions that do not scale beyond a single domain and/or application. Furthermore, the proposed environment will allow operational and managerial inter-dependence while providing opportunities for the researchers to reuse software components from other domains and build universal solution libraries. We demonstrate this research for microscopy use-case, where we show how INTERSECT-SDK is developing the tools necessary to enable advanced scanning methods and accelerate scientific discovery.

Malviya, Addi Thakur↗

Aggregate attack surface management for network discovery of operational technology

Interconnectivity has become a substratum of technology as the benefits of data-driven functionality are being realized in nearly all industries. Increased connectivity of Operational Technology (OT) exacerbates cyber risks because Industrial Control Systems (ICS) are becoming exposed to the Internet. These exposures are often done inadvertently through misconfigurations as additional network devices come online. Attack surface management (ASM) platforms can be used to identify vulnerabilities by performing external network discovery over the Internet using web spiders. These web spiders enable big data analytics of Internet of Things (IoT) devices as identifiable information of Internet-exposed equipment are archived in searchable databases that are made publicly available. There are a multitude of ASM service providers on the market. Here, this study was conducted to evaluate several commonly known tools to determine the aggregate attack surface of control systems. Queries were crafted by targeting commonly known manufacturers and communication protocols found in OT networks. Identified devices were that categorized based on technology types. Each query was replicated between several tools to target identical ICS equipment. Findings in this paper suggested a significant variance in the exposures discovered by each tool, but unique contributions were identified for each tool when a merged attack surface was derived. Therefore, all tools should be used in aggregate.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Building a new multiphysics workflow in MOOSE: application to tritium migration, trapping and advection in TMAP8

Fusion devices are anticipated to produce and consume several kilograms of tritium per year. This rare fuel resource is both highly mobile and radioactive, making tracking inventories a priority for operation and safety. The fusion safety program at the Idaho National Laboratory has been developing the Tritium Migration and Analysis Program (TMAP), of which the latest version is a MOOSE-based application. TMAP8 is verified against its predecessors and possesses additional multi-dimensional tritium migration modeling capabilities. As we extend its capabilities towards both whole device (in multiple dimensions) and whole plant (with multiple components) simulations, the syntax of inputs must become compact, descriptive, compatible with quality assurance processes, and as error-proof as achievable. The new Physics system developed MOOSE can set up equations and instantiating them on plant components. The system permits the automatic definition of complex discretization with a consistency between object parameters achieved programmatically. The Physics system can currently instantiate the equations for heat conduction and Navier Stokes weakly compressible flow. In MOOSE-terms, it automates the definition of kernels, boundary conditions, and several core and helper materials and fields. As part of this effort, Physics classes were developed for tritium migration, trapping and advection within either a multi-dimensional Navier Stokes fluid dynamics simulation, or a 1D thermal hydraulics piping system. In this presentation, we will showcase the new syntax, its application to several verification and validation cases which were already studied using the classical TMAP8 syntax, and a demonstration of the new coupling capabilities for the migration of tritium into blanket coolant channels and the subsequent advection into the coolant loop.

70 - PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DAQExpert the service to increase CMS data-taking efficiency

The Data Acquisition (DAQ) system of the Compact Muon Solenoid (CMS) experiment at the LHC is a complex system responsible for the data readout, event building and recording of accepted events. Its proper functioning plays a critical role in the data-taking efficiency of the CMS experiment. In order to ensure high availability and recover promptly in the event of hardware or software failure of the subsystems, an expert system, the DAQ Expert, has been developed. It aims at improving the data taking efficiency, reducing the human error in the operations and minimising the on-call expert demand. Introduced in the beginning of 2017, it assists the shift crew and the system experts in recovering from operational faults, streamlining the post mortem analysis and, at the end of Run 2, triggering fully automatic recovery without human intervention. DAQ Expert analyses the real-time monitoring data originating from the DAQ components and the high-level trigger updated every few seconds. It pinpoints data flow problems, and recovers them automatically or after given operator approval. We analyse the CMS downtime in the 2018 run focusing on what was improved with the introduction of automated recovery; present challenges and design of encoding the expert knowledge into automated recovery jobs. Furthermore, we demonstrate the web-based, ReactJS interfaces that ensure an effective cooperation between the human operators in the control room and the automated recovery system. We report on the operational experience with automated recovery.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

A Planetary Defense System For Responsive Space Missions

As King et al succinctly write, “Collision between the Earth and small objects in the solar system are known to occur regularly, and can result in extinction-level events at their most energetic or more commonly widespread loss of life or economic destruction even for relatively low-energy impacts.” Currently, the JPL Sentry System and the NASA NEO Surveyor mission track, identify, and monitor potential asteroid threats. The JPL Sentry System4 is an automated collision monitoring system which scans the current asteroid catalog for potential impact trajectories with Earth. A 2017 study led by P. Tricarico titled “The near-Earth asteroid population from two decades of observations” analyzes the combined observations of nine leading asteroid surveys. The NASA NEO Surveyor mission seeks to identify 90% of near-Earth objects (NEO) with diameters greater than 140 meters (460 feet) within 10 years. The NEO Surveyor combines data from two infrared imaging detectors to measure NEO size, composition, shape, rotational state, and orbits. Recently, the NASA Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission successfully altered the orbit of asteroid moon Dimorphos in 2022. This demonstrated that orbit alteration is possible. Thus, collisions between the Earth and asteroids are both likely and demonstrate potential for great harm. There is ongoing work to identify, catalog, and track potential threats. However, when a threat is identified there is not yet a system in place to target the threatening asteroid and defend the planet from potentially existential threats. Building on the DART Mission, we explore a planetary defense system to mitigate asteroid threats.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Automated Control for Nuclear Thermal Propulsion Start-Up using MOOSE-based Applications

This report presents a Griffin/Bison/RELAP-7 numerical model of a prototypical NTP system that features fuel assemblies arranged in rings, and which was designed to simulate rapid startup transients. The physics modeled include full-core neutronics, assembly-wise heat conduction, and conjugate heat transfer, with the balance of plant mainly imposed through boundary conditions. In addition, various forms of automated reactivity control were deployed by using the MOOSE to autonomously drive the model and simulate the reactor transitioning from assumed initial conditions to nominal power in a fraction of a minute. To generate the cross-sections of the neutronics model, and in an effort to simultaneously account for the tremendous axial temperature gradients in the reactor and to limit the number of state points required for cross-section generation, the average component temperatures and hydrogen densities in the cooling channels were correlated to the average fuel and moderator temperatures, and fixed axial profiles were derived for nominal conditions and then used during the transient. With this approximation, a tractable cross-section library tabulated with fuel/moderator temperatures and CD angles was generated using Serpent. The full-core SPH correction procedure and the CD decusping technology in Griffin, respectively, ensure preservation of the multiplication factor and reaction rates at state points, along with a reasonably accurate reactivity worth between tabulated CD angles, despite using a coarse mesh. Feedback from other physics was calculated by modeling one representative fuel assembly per ring, along with the corresponding fuel and moderator cooling channels. To limit power overshoots during startup, another layer of multiphysics coupling was added to the model in order to automatically control the drums. Two different technologies presented herein showed outstanding performance in this regard: (1) a novel hybrid PID controller based on both power and reactivity signals, and (2) a PGC that relies on kinetics parameters and reactivity coefficients to predict future behavior and adjust the desired signal accordingly. A challenging benchmark was devised, featuring a power demand curve that exponentially increases by a factor of 500 within 30 seconds, then levels out after that. Both control approaches create a simulated power curve that closely follows the power demand curve and limits power overshoots to 1% or less. While the former approach requires more tuning of the internal parameters, the latter requires additional knowledge of the reactivity feedback coefficients and rates of change of the corresponding variables, including fuel and moderator temperature, which could be difficult to dynamically measure for a real NTP system. Fortunately, some inaccuracy in these quantities will not drastically degrade the PGC performance. Subsequently, a more realistic startup sequence was considered, in which the mass flow rate and outlet pressures are ramped up to model bootstrap and thrust build-up phases prior to reaching steady-state conditions, demonstrating the ability of the hybrid PID and PGCs to handle such transients, with both types of controllers exhibiting very similar behavior. Nevertheless, a significant chamber temperature overshoot was observed, caused by the demanded power signal and assumed mass flow rate. This issue could be mitigated by deploying a reactor controller that follows the chamber temperature signal and actuates both the control valves and drums (rather than using a power signal based solely on the drums to control reactivity). Enhancement of the hydrogen fluid properties available in MOOSE, as well as a better understanding of prototypical initial conditions, are also needed to further enhance this startup model. Finally, a study was performed to model decay heat post-shutdown, and to prepare for extending this model to predict shutdown behavior and post-shutdown pulsed cooling requirements.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Modeling Photovoltaics Innovation and Deployment Dynamics

PV’s historically rapid cost reduction is exceptional among technologies. Further cost reductions could play a major role in increasing deployment in the future. To enable such cost reductions, new modeling frameworks are needed to understand the determinants of innovation in PV. In this project, we study the mechanisms driving PV module and system cost reductions, delving deeply into the specific technological innovations that have occurred in the past and the policies that encouraged them, and also opportunities for future cost reduction and widespread deployment. The project contributes new fundamental insight on the determinants of technological innovation by developing novel methods and insights that are generalizable and can therefore be applied to other technologies. The results will allow policy makers, engineers, and other stakeholders to better prioritize their efforts and investments in the future. The project is organized around four journal articles as described below. The first article [1] identifies ‘low-level’ (e.g. conversion efficiency improvement) and ‘high- level’ (e.g. R&D efforts) mechanisms of cost reduction in PV systems (Tasks 1-4). This work builds on a previous DOE grant, where we developed a framework for technological innovation leading to PV module cost reduction [2]. We advance a method to disentangle the contributions of physical (‘hardware’) and non-physical (‘soft technology’) changes. Our results uncover reasons behind the relatively slow evolution of soft technology and can inform new innovation approaches to these technologies. The second article [3] identifies specific engineering or institutional innovations that enabled the low-level mechanisms of cost reduction in PV module and balance-of-systems (BOS) (Tasks 5, 9, 10). We identify 85 innovations and connect them to the cost variables they affected. By developing an innovations typology, this study shows the differences between the types of innovations affecting PV modules and BOS components. Finally, by analyzing the industry origins of innovations, this study also finds that PV was well-positioned within an ecosystem of continuously advancing technologies. The third article [4] studies prospective cost reduction opportunities (Task 10). We explore how design approaches that emphasize standardization and automation, such as plug-and-play PV systems, can create cost reduction opportunities by reducing interactions and speeding up activities with high process costs. We show that this can lead to cost reduction in cost components with the most untapped opportunity for improvement such as installation labor, overhead, electrical BOS, and customer acquisition. The fourth article [5] analyzes how various policies supporting PV deployment and R&D contributed to PV’s cost improvement by enabling high-level mechanisms, specific innovations, and ultimately low-level mechanisms of cost reduction (Tasks 8, 13, 14). We investigate examples from different countries and connect these policies to quantifiable cost change mechanisms. Our study sheds light on the roles that different nations played over time, through a diverse set of policy approaches.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Innovations in Sensors and Controls for Building Energy Management: Research and Development Opportunities Report for Emerging Technologies

Sensors, actuators, and controllers, which collectively serve as the backbone of cyberphysical systems for building energy management, are one of the core technical areas of investment for achieving the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Building Technologies Office's (BTO's) goals for energy affordability in the national building stock - both commercial and residential. In fact, an aggregated annual energy savings of 29% is estimated in the commercial sector alone through the implementation of efficiency measures using current state-of-the-art sensors and controls to retune buildings by optimizing programmable settings based on occupant schedules and comfort requirements, as well as detecting and diagnosing equipment operation and installation problems (Fernandez et al. 2017). Monitoring and control of building conditions and operations has advanced significantly, from the invention of the modern thermostat just before the start of the 20th century to the midcentury incorporation of direct digital control into devices, the introduction of open protocols and network communications at the end of the century, and finally the invention of cloud-based computing and additional advancements that have enabled remote operation and a proliferation of connected and intelligent devices in building automation. Despite this potential, however, two main challenges hinder widespread adoption of sensors and controls in building operations that can ensure savings for high-efficiency components and equipment (e.g., heat pumps, windows, and lighting devices), as well as additional savings from more sophisticated control architectures and algorithms. energy savings of 29% is estimated in the commercial sector alone through the implementation of efficiency measures using current state-of-the-art sensors and controls to retune buildings by optimizing programmable settings based on occupant schedules and comfort requirements, as well as detecting and diagnosing equipment operation and installation problems (Fernandez et al. 2017). Monitoring and control of building conditions and operations has advanced significantly, from the invention of the modern thermostat just before the start of the 20th century to the midcentury incorporation of direct digital control into devices, the introduction of open protocols and network communications at the end of the century, and finally the invention of cloud-based computing and additional advancements that have enabled remote operation and a proliferation of connected and intelligent devices in building automation. Despite this potential, however, two main challenges hinder widespread adoption of sensors and controls in building operations that can ensure savings for high-efficiency components and equipment (e.g., heat pumps, windows, and lighting devices), as well as additional savings from more sophisticated control architectures and algorithms.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Optimizing Hydronic Heating for Comfort and Performance in Multifamily Housing

Inefficient control settings in multifamily boilers often lead to substantial energy and cost penalties. To address this, a Fault Detection and Diagnostic (FDD) tool was developed to automate data analysis and identify operational faults such as suboptimal outdoor temperature sensor placement, misconfigured outdoor air reset (OAR) curves, excess boiler cycling, and domestic hot water (DHW) setpoint errors. By comparing pre- and post-implementation periods and applying engineering models, the tool quantifies energy savings and reduces manual analysis time by over 90%. Testing on over 100 monitored sites and a targeted subset of 12 buildings showed an average 11% energy savings from remote optimization; further validation across 19 OAR curve changes confirmed the tool’s accuracy, predicting actual savings within ±5% for most cases. Simple payback can be under three years for many multifamily buildings, though rising hardware, labor, and fuel costs create uncertainties, and decarbonization goals increasingly shift focus to electrification. The FDD tool remains invaluable for optimizing existing boilers, enhancing future electrification measures, and adapting to new technologies by refining building load estimates. In doing so, it supports both near-term efficiency and long-term transitions to low-carbon alternatives, ensuring buildings achieve substantial cost and energy benefits throughout their system lifecycles.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗