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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 343 records · Page 19
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Plasma electron acceleration driven by a long-wave-infrared laser

Laser-driven plasma accelerators provide tabletop sources of relativistic electron bunches and femtosecond x-ray pulses, but usually require petawatt-class solid-state-laser pulses of wavelength λ L ~ 1 μm. Longer-λ L lasers can potentially accelerate higher-quality bunches, since they require less power to drive larger wakes in less dense plasma. Here, we report on a self-injecting plasma accelerator driven by a long-wave-infrared laser: a chirped-pulse-amplified CO 2 laser (λ L ≈ 10 μm). Through optical scattering experiments, we observed wakes that 4-ps CO 2 pulses with < 1/2 terawatt (TW) peak power drove in hydrogen plasma of electron density down to 4 × 10 17 cm –3 (1/100 atmospheric density) via a self-modulation (SM) instability. Shorter, more powerful CO 2 pulses drove wakes in plasma down to 3 × 10 16 cm –3 that captured and accelerated plasma electrons to relativistic energy. Collimated quasi-monoenergetic features in the electron output marked the onset of a transition from SM to bubble-regime acceleration, portending future higher-quality accelerators driven by yet shorter, more powerful pulses.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Can section 45Q tax credit foster decarbonization? A case study of geologic carbon storage at Acid Gas Injection wells in the Permian Basin

Carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) is an important pathway for meeting climate mitigation goals. While the economic viability of CCUS is well understood, previous studies do not evaluate the economic feasibility of carbon capture and storage (CCS) in the Permian Basin specifically regarding the new Section 45Q tax credits. We developed a technoeconomic analysis method, evaluated the economic feasibility of CCS at the acid gas injection (AGI) wells, and assessed the implication of Section 45Q tax credits for CCS at the AGIs. We find that the compressors, well depth, and the permit and monitoring costs drive the facility costs. Compressors are the predominant contributors to capital and operating expenditure driving the levelized cost of CO 2 storage. Strategic cost reduction measures identified include 1) sourcing of low-cost electricity and 2) optimizing operational efficiency in well operations. In evaluating the impact of the tax credits on CCS projects, facility scale proved decisive. We found that facilities with an annual injection rate exceeding 10,000 MT storage capacity demonstrate economic viability contingent upon the procurement of inputs at the least cost. The new construction of AGI wells were found to be economically viable at a storage capacity of 100,000 MT. The basin is heavily focused on CCUS (tax credit – $\$$65/MT CO 2 ), which overshadows CCS ($\$$85/MT CO 2 ) opportunities. Balancing the dual objectives of CCS and CCUS requires planning and coordination for optimal resource and pore space utilization to attain the basin's decarbonization potential. We also found that CCS on AGI is a lower cost CCS option as compared to CCS on other industries.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Ion Exchange Gels Allow Organic Electrochemical Transistor Operation with Hydrophobic Polymers in Aqueous Solution

Conjugated-polymer-based organic electrochemical transistors (OECTs) are being studied for applications ranging from biochemical sensing to neural interfaces. While new polymers that interface digital electronics with the aqueous chemistry of life are being developed, the majority of high-performance organic transistor materials are poor at transporting biologically relevant ions. Here, the operating mode of an organic transistor is changed from that of an electrolyte-gated organic field-effect transistor (EGOFET) to that of an OECT by incorporating an ion exchange gel between the active layer and the aqueous electrolyte. This device works by taking up biologically relevant ions from solution and injecting more hydrophobic ions into the active layer. Using poly[2,5-bis(3-tetradecylthiophen-2-yl) thieno[3,2-b]thiophene] as the active layer and a blend of an ionic liquid, 1-butyl-3-methylimidazolium bis(trifluoromethylsulfonyl)imide, and poly(vinylidene fluoride-co-hexafluoropropylene) as the ion exchange gel, four orders of magnitude improvement in device transconductance and a 100-fold increase in kinetics are demonstrated. The ability of the ion-exchange-gel OECT to record biological signals by measuring the action potentials of a Venus flytrap is demonstrated. These results show the possibility of using interface engineering to open up a wider palette of organic semiconductors as OECTs that can be gated by aqueous solutions.

Bischak, Connor G.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hydromechanical Modeling of Fault Rupture in Geologic CO 2 Sequestration: A Comparison of Two Failure Criteria

Abstract The large‐scale implementation of geological carbon sequestration has raised concerns about potential fault activation and induced seismicity, which could compromise storage integrity and pose seismic risks. We theoretically compared two failure criteria, Mohr‐Coulomb (MC) and Modified Cam‐Clay criteria (MCC), to assess fault rupture during CO 2 storage. Both criteria characterize fault behavior in a specific stress regime but differ in reducing the complexity of fault rupture to a few key mechanisms. Using a coupled hydromechanical model, we demonstrate that the choice of a failure criterion and the physics of fault weakening associated with these criteria strongly condition fault response to a given fluid injection. MC mainly relates rupture to friction, while MCC relates rupture to fault poro‐plasticity. Our findings highlight that the selection of a failure criterion, being inherently subjective, can significantly alter the predicted fault behavior during CO 2 storage, thereby impacting the reliability of geomechanical risk assessments.

Cao, M. [Energy Geosciences Division Lawrence Berk↗
NASA NTRS2023

A Synthetic Roman Space Telescope High-Latitude Time-Domain Survey: Supernovae in the Deep Field

NASA will launch the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope (hereafter Roman ) in the second half of this decade, which will allow for a generation-defining measurement of dark energy through multiple probes, including Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia). To impro v e decisions on surv e y strate gy, we hav e created the first simulations of realistic Roman images that include artificial SNe Ia injected as point sources in the images. Our analysis combines work done on Roman simulations for weak gravitational lensing studies as well as catalogue-level simulations of SN Ia samples. We have created a time series of images o v er 2 yr containing ∼1050 SNe Ia, co v ering a 1 deg 2 subarea of a planned 5 deg 2 deep survey. We have released these images publicly for community use along with input catalogues of all injected sources. We create secondary products from these images by generating coadded images and demonstrating reco v ery of transient sources using image subtraction. We perform first-use analyses on these images in order to measure galaxy detection efficiency, point source detection efficiency, and host-galaxy association biases. The simulated images can be found here at https:// roman.ipac.caltech.edu/sims/ SN Survey Image sim.html .

supernovae↗
DOE OSTI2021

The metabolic origins of non-photorespiratory CO 2 release during photosynthesis: a metabolic flux analysis

Respiration in the light (R L ) releases CO 2 in photosynthesizing leaves and is a phenomenon that occurs independently from photorespiration. Since R L lowers net carbon fixation, understanding R L could help improve plant carbon-use efficiency and models of crop photosynthesis. Although R L was identified more than 75 years ago, its biochemical mechanisms remain unclear. To identify reactions contributing to R L , we mapped metabolic fluxes in photosynthesizing source leaves of the oilseed crop and model plant camelina (Camelina sativa). We performed a flux analysis using isotopic labeling patterns of central metabolites during 13 CO 2 labeling time course, gas exchange, and carbohydrate production rate experiments. To quantify the contributions of multiple potential CO 2 sources with statistical and biological confidence, we increased the number of metabolites measured and reduced biological and technical heterogeneity by using single mature source leaves and quickly quenching metabolism by directly injecting liquid N 2 ; we then compared the goodness-of-fit between these data and data from models with alternative metabolic network structures and constraints. Our analysis predicted that R L releases 5.2 μmol CO2 g –1 FW h –1 of CO 2 , which is relatively consistent with a value of 9.3 μmol CO 2 g –1 FW h –1 measured by CO 2 gas exchange. The results indicated that ≤10% of R L results from TCA cycle reactions, which are widely considered to dominate R L . Further analysis of the results indicated that oxidation of glucose-6-phosphate to pentose phosphate via 6-phosphogluconate (the G6P/OPP shunt) can account for >% of CO 2 released by R L .

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Mechanistic modeling of CO 2 well leakage in a generic abandoned well through a bridge plug cement-casing gap

Both known and unmapped plugged and abandoned wells are potential leakage pathways for CO 2 from geologic carbon sequestration (GCS) sites. Although many abandoned wells have cement bridge plugs installed to prevent leakage, the seal between the cement and the inner casing wall is subject to failure. In this study, we carried out detailed T2Well simulations of cases of sudden non-Darcy flow of CO 2 and brine leakage up the gap between a cement plug and the inner steel casing wall that becomes a fully connected flow path during the post-injection period. The goal of our study was two-fold: (1) to understand the dynamics, rates, and the characteristic temporal signals associated with the onset of leakage through various gap-aperture sizes, and (2) to suggest potential monitoring strategies based on the findings. Simulation results show that the leakage of CO 2 and brine upward is transient with interesting phase interference behavior. Time-dependent oscillatory flows with varying pressure, temperature, and flow rates of CO 2 and brine show strong dependence on gap aperture. Phase-change and decompression lead to very low temperatures at the top of the well for gap apertures larger than 4 mm suggesting that remote thermal monitoring at the ground surface may be an effective way of monitoring even if well locations are not known a priori. Pressure in the well is also indicative of CO 2 leakage. The temporal patterns of changing temperature and pressure may be useful diagnostic signals for leakage detection. Finally, these transient leakage signals may provide information on the cause of leakage and/or characteristics of the flow path that could inform effective remediation design and execution approaches.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Wyoming CarbonSAFE: Advancing Commercialization of Low-Carbon Energy Technologies in Fossil-Rich Wyoming

Wyoming’s Powder River Basin (PRB) is the most prolific coal producer and exporter in the United States and the State of Wyoming’s largest oil-producing basin. In addition to being a leading energy producer, the PRB is the site of research programs whose aim is to develop and integrate low-carbon technologies into existing fossil fuel energy industries. Much of the PRB’s low-carbon research is focused around Dry Fork Station (DFS), which is the newest coal-fired power station in the western US. Currently, DFS hosts five carbon capture projects, including pilot-scale capture projects that utilize different capture technologies and a full front-end engineering and design (FEED) study, a commercial CO 2 pipeline for nearby CO 2 -enhanced oil recovery industry, and is also co-located with the Wyoming Integrated Test Center, which is a host facility for unconventional carbon utilization research (i.e. flue gas carbon-to-products innovations). DFS is also the host site for the Wyoming CarbonSAFE project. Wyoming CarbonSAFE, funded by the Department of Energy/National Energy Technology Laboratory, is a multi-phased program (currently in Phase II) whose core objective is developing and validating storage sites within a complex capable of storing 50 million metric tonnes of CO 2 over a 30 year project period using carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS). This paper will provide an overview of the project to-date, showing that CarbonSAFE goals are achievable with respect to geologic, environmental, regulatory, CO 2 source and economic conditions, and why the State of Wyoming offers one of the more favorable environments to advance the commercialization studies. In 2019, the project team designed and completed a ~10,000 foot stratigraphic test well just south of DFS. From this well, the team collected over 600 feet of core, fluid samples from target injection zones, and a full petrophysical log suite. In addition, legacy 2D seismic lines were acquired and a 3D seismic survey was acquired in the fall of 2020. The objective of these field activities has been to identify and characterize target storage reservoirs and associated caprock. This complex has several reservoirs that could meet commercial injection goals, and over 4000 feet of associated caprock. Simulations of site performance suggest that stacked injection provides the most effective storage strategy, and would necessitate several sites within the greater complex to meet final project injection goals. Other work within this project includes the development of a business-case around proximal fields with CO 2 -enhanced oil recovery potential and existing tax credits, assessment of regulatory conditions, including pore space ownership and Class VI injection well permitting requirements, implementation of a robust public outreach Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3821220 GHGT-15 McLaughlin 2 program, and surface site characterization activities that have focused on environmental factors. In the PRB and at DFS, the State of Wyoming and other entities have made carbon management a priority of its future energy industry by providing a regulatory and business framework that is favorable to advancing these technologies. These endeavors will become more realistic with the successful implementation of Wyoming CarbonSAFE, and its ability to secure and validate commercial-scale CCUS at the center of Wyoming’s premier low-carbon research efforts.

McLaughlin, Fred↗
DOE OSTI2023

Feasibility of FDEM cross-dipole and TDEM loop sources for monitoring CO 2 at the Kemper CarbonSAFE site

Electromagnetics has been shown to be a viable tool to monitor CO 2 plumes embedded in saline reservoirs. However, the majority of studies focus on measuring the electric field, which requires cumbersome equipment in the field and it is difficult to install permanent measurement stations. Magnetic field receivers offer an opportunity to reduce the form factor of the survey and increase the mobility by utilizing upcoming technologies, such as drones. We explore the use of frequency-domain electric dipole sources, and timedomain loops with a focus on measuring the secondary magnetic field at the surface for a conceptual injection scenario based on the Kemper CarbonSAFE site. We find that electric dipole sources give a response above the sensitivity of current sensor technology and, therefore, be a viable tool for CO 2 monitoring. The time domain loop source does provide fields that are useful for determining the location of the CO 2 plume, however the field magnitude is below the sensitivity of the current generation of instruments. To explore the use of a potential borehole receiver we generate a map of the magnetic field at depth to explore potential borehole placement for monitoring efforts. Finally, we limit the spatial extent of the electric dipole survey to a single parcel of land to help understand how the fields change with survey geometry. We find that the shape of the secondary fields change slightly with the small transmitter, but are still measurable provided that the cultural noise at the site is low. Thus, we conclude that at the Kemper site a frequency-domain cross-dipole source with magnetometer receivers is suitable to monitor the expansion of the CO 2 plume in the saline reservoir, even with a limited transmitter footprint on the surface.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Combustion Kinetics Model Development & Fluid Property Experimental Investigation For Improved Design Of Supercritical CO 2 Power Cycle Components

Supercritical carbon dioxide (sCO 2 ) cycles are being investigated for the future of power generation and will contribute to a carbon-neutral future to combat the effects of climate change. These direct-fired closed cycles will produce power without adding significant pollutants to the atmosphere. For such cycles to be efficient, they will need to operate at significantly higher pressures (e.g., 300 atm for Allam Cycle) than existing systems (typically less than 40 atm). There is limited knowledge on combustion at these high pressures and with a high dilution of carbon dioxide. Also, various experimental and computational investigations and model developments have been performed by the University of Central Florida (UCF), Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University (ERAU), and Stanford University (S.U.) to improve the current knowledge base and support the design and development of sCO 2 combustors. This project's technical aspects include chemical kinetics development, fundamental sCO 2 combustion, combustion model and sub-model development, supercritical fluid injection characterization, and heat transfer characterization.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Kinematic Evidence for an Embedded Planet in the IM Lupi Disk

Abstract We test the hypothesis that an embedded giant planet in the IM Lupi protostellar disk can produce velocity kinks seen in CO line observations as well as the spiral arms seen in scattered light and continuum emission. We inject planets into 3D hydrodynamics simulations of IM Lupi, generating synthetic observations using Monte Carlo radiative transfer. We find that an embedded planet of 2–3 M Jup can reproduce non-Keplerian velocity perturbations, or “kinks”, in the 12 CO J = 2–1 channel maps. Such a planet can also explain the spiral arms seen in 1.25 mm dust continuum emission and 1.6 μ m scattered-light images. We show that the wake of the planet can be traced in the observed peak velocity map, which appears to closely follow the morphology expected from our simulations and from analytic models of planet–disk interaction.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Controlling pollutant emissions in a high-pressure combustor with fuel-diluent blending

This paper investigates the formation of nitric oxide (NO) and carbon monoxide (CO) emissions as a function of nitrogen (N 2 ) or carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) diluent content, added to a premixed reacting jet in crossflow. Here, reaction characteristics of a rich methane-air jet injected into a lean vitiated crossflow were analyzed at an elevated pressure of 5 atm. The jet was pre-heated and enriched with 0%, 15%, 30%, and 50% mass fraction to quantify the effect on pollutant emissions. Simulated results of the full chemistry Star-CCM+CFD model were verified with data taken in the experimental high-pressure combustion facility, which provides pressure, temperature and velocity profiles, as well as line-of-sight chemiluminescence and exit emission measurements. The analysis revealed the significant influence of the diluent to delay axial combustion; this mixing delay increased the axial flame lift-off and controlled any thermal ignition limitations. Increasing the diluent content increased the timescale for the flame to stabilize, which allowed for greater entrainment of crossflow oxidizer into the axial jet stream, and led to decreased pollutant emissions. Hence, crossflow entrainment is a critical driving force at high diluent content. Local nitric oxide (NO) emission formation in the axial stage was predicted numerically, showing the correlation between diluent addition, axial heat release, and the formation of nitric oxide pollution. The high diluent levels leaned out the jet mixture and delayed axial combustion, while reducing prompt and thermal NOx by mitigating flame hotspots and minimizing the timescale that the products remain at high temperatures.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Water-Dispersible CsPbBr 3 Perovskite Nanocrystals with Ultra-Stability and its Application in Electrochemical CO 2 Reduction

Thanks to the excellent optoelectronic properties, lead halide perovskites (LHPs) have been widely employed in high-performance optoelectronic devices such as solar cells and light-emitting diodes. However, overcoming their poor stability against water has been one of the biggest challenges for most applications. Herein, we report a novel hot-injection method in a Pb-poor environment combined with a well-designed purification process to synthesize water-dispersible CsPbBr 3 nanocrystals (NCs). The as-prepared NCs sustain their superior photoluminescence (91% quantum yield in water) for more than 200 days in an aqueous environment, which is attributed to a passivation effect induced by excess CsBr salts. Thanks to the ultra-stability of these LHP NCs, for the first time, we report a new application of LHP NCs, in which they are applied to electrocatalysis of CO 2 reduction reaction. Noticeably, they show significant electrocatalytic activity (faradaic yield: 32% for CH 4 , 40% for CO) and operation stability (> 350 h).

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Carbon dioxide-enhanced metal release from kerogen

Heavy metals released from kerogen to produced water during oil/gas extraction have caused major environmental concerns. To curtail water usage and production in an operation and to use the same process for carbon sequestration, supercritical CO 2 (scCO 2 ) has been suggested as a fracking fluid or an oil/gas recovery agent. It has been shown previously that injection of scCO 2 into a reservoir may cause several chemical and physical changes to the reservoir properties including pore surface wettability, gas sorption capacity, and transport properties. Using molecular dynamics simulations, we here demonstrate that injection of scCO 2 might lead to desorption of physically adsorbed metals from kerogen structures. This process on one hand may impact the quality of produced water. On the other hand, it may enhance metal recovery if this process is used for in-situ extraction of critical metals from shale or other organic carbon-rich formations such as coal.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

The future of ship engines: Renewable fuels and enabling technologies for decarbonization

Shipping is one of the most efficient transportation modes for moving freight globally. International regulations concerning decarbonization and emission reduction goals drive rapid innovations to meet the 2030 and 2050 greenhouse gas reduction targets. The internal combustion engines used for marine vessels are among the most efficient energy conversion systems. Internal combustion engines dominate the propulsion system architectures for marine shipping, and current marine engines will continue to serve for several decades. However, to meet the aggressive goals of low-carbon-intensity shipping, there is an impetus for further efficiency improvement and achieving net zero greenhouse gas emissions. These factors drive the advancements in engine technologies, low-carbon fuels and fueling infrastructure, and emissions control systems. This editorial presents a perspective on the future of ship engines and the role of low-life cycle-carbon-fuels in decarbonizing the marine shipping sector. A selection of zero-carbon, net-zero carbon, and low-lifecycle-carbon-fuels are reviewed. This work focuses on the opportunities and challenges of displacing distillate fossil fuels for decarbonizing marine shipping. In conclusion, enabling technologies such as next-generation air handling, fuel injection systems, and advanced combustion modes are discussed in the context of their role in the future of low-CO 2 intensity shipping.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Pulse Detonation Engine for Advanced Oxy-Combustion of Coal-Based Fuel for Direct Power Extraction Applications

Pressure gain combustion and magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) systems have the potential to provide a step increase in the efficiency of combined-cycle power plants. Specific advantages include a net pressure increase to the system instead of a pressure drop, the high temperature of the detonation waves can increase the efficiency of power extraction compared to other processes, significant thermal energy can be released in a compact region, and the high velocities of the flow increase extraction of electrical power. In summary, a pressure gain combustor coupled with a MHD has the potential to be transformative. Despite the potential advantages, relatively little research has been conducted considering coupled pressure gain combustion systems with MHD systems. With this background and motivation, the overall goal of this effort was to advance the knowledge, technology, and computational tools associated with coupled detonation and MHD systems. A joint experimental and computational approach was used while seeking to accomplish the goals of this work. Specifically, two pulse detonation engines were developed and used for the experiments to produce detonations. Detonation speeds were measured for a variety of flow and fuel conditions (e.g., methane, propane, with coal particles). Preliminary electrical conductivity measurements were collected. An extensive amount of research was performed to identify sensitivities of detonation behaviors to the presence of combustion products. Computationally, a twofold approach was used in this work. First, a solver was developed for solving the governing equations for a reactive flow with coupled detonation and ionization chemistry. The solver was applied to study the impacts of seed material ionization on detonation. Second, a conservation element-solution element (CE-SE) based numerical solver for detonation studies with a reduced reaction mechanism for oxy-methane combustion was developed and verified on standard test cases. Key findings and contributions from this work are as follows. A system was developed for injecting powderized coal, or other seeding material, into a pulse-detonation system. The influence of a combustion product (i.e., CO 2 ) on detonation behavior was identified. Knowledge gained from this work is applicable to devices such as rotating detonation engines, where combustion products mix with fresh reactants. A system for measuring the electrical conductivity of the exhaust from a pulse-detonation engine was developed. The open-source solver, Clawpack, was extended to solve the reactive Euler equations for simulating detonations. A coupled combustion and ionization chemistry was developed in a single chemical kinetic model for methane oxidation. This model can be used to solve coupled MHD and detonation simulations. It was found that parasitic interactions from ionization chemistry with the magnetic field can reduce the detonation velocity by up to 8%, with a potential impact on power extraction of 15%. It is recommended that interactions between the detonation front and MHD field be considered. Higher gas temperatures and velocities were achieved owing to oxy-fuel detonations. Use of radical dissociation reactions in the reduced reaction mechanism, was found to be critical in predicting detonation temperature and velocity accurately.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2020

Permitting Commercial-Scale Carbon Dioxide Geological Storage

Conference presentation at Underground Injection Control Annual Meeting of the Groundwater Protection Council, San Antonio, Texas, February 18, 2020. An overview of the Plains CO 2 Reduction (PCOR) Partnership Initiative and carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) activity in the region. Includes permitting process for CCUS deployment in North Dakota.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2021

Identifying the sources of uncertainty in climate model simulations of solar radiation modification with the G6sulfur and G6solar Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) simulations

We present here results from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) simulations for the experiments G6sulfur and G6solar for six Earth system models participating in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) Phase 6. The aim of the experiments is to reduce the warming that results from a high-tier emission scenario (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways SSP5-8.5) to that resulting from a medium-tier emission scenario (SSP2-4.5). These simulations aim to analyze the response of climate models to a reduction in incoming surface radiation as a means to reduce global surface temperatures, and they do so either by simulating a stratospheric sulfate aerosol layer or, in a more idealized way, through a uniform reduction in the solar constant in the model. We find that over the final two decades of this century there are considerable inter-model spreads in the needed injection amounts of sulfate (29 ± 9 Tg-SO 2 /yr between 2081 and 2100), in the latitudinal distribution of the aerosol cloud and in the stratospheric temperature changes resulting from the added aerosol layer. Even in the simpler G6solar experiment, there is a spread in the needed solar dimming to achieve the same global temperature target (1.91 ± 0.44 %). The analyzed models already show significant differences in the response to the increasing CO 2 concentrations for global mean temperatures and global mean precipitation (2.05 K ± 0.42 K and 2.28 ± 0.80 %, respectively, for SSP5-8.5 minus SSP2-4.5 averaged over 2081–2100). With aerosol injection, the differences in how the aerosols spread further change some of the underlying uncertainties, such as the global mean precipitation response (–3.79 ± 0.76 % for G6sulfur compared to –2.07 ± 0.40 % for G6solar against SSP2-4.5 between 2081 and 2100). These differences in the behavior of the aerosols also result in a larger uncertainty in the regional surface temperature response among models in the case of the G6sulfur simulations, suggesting the need to devise various, more specific experiments to single out and resolve particular sources of uncertainty. The spread in the modeled response suggests that a degree of caution is necessary when using these results for assessing specific impacts of geoengineering in various aspects of the Earth system. However, all models agree that compared to a scenario with unmitigated warming, stratospheric aerosol geoengineering has the potential to both globally and locally reduce the increase in surface temperatures.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗