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At least 343 records · Page 19

Modern Trends in Neutron Scattering Instrument Technologies

This article reviews some current trends that can be observed in the development of neutron scattering instrument technologies. While the number of neutron scattering facilities worldwide and the number of beam days they offer are largely stable, their scientific impact is increasing through improving instrumental capabilities, new and more versatile instruments, and more efficient data collection protocols. Neutron beams are becoming smaller but more intense, and instruments are being designed to utilize more ‘useful’ neutrons in unit time. This article picks and discusses a few recent developments in the areas of integrated source and instrument design, use of computational tools, new detectors, and experiment automation.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Ecological Trait-Based Digital Categorization of Microbial Genomes for Denitrification Potential

Microorganisms encode proteins that function in the transformations of useful and harmful nitrogenous compounds in the global nitrogen cycle. The major transformations in the nitrogen cycle are nitrogen fixation, nitrification, denitrification, anaerobic ammonium oxidation, and ammonification. The focus of this report is the complex biogeochemical process of denitrification, which, in the complete form, consists of a series of four enzyme-catalyzed reduction reactions that transforms nitrate to nitrogen gas. Denitrification is a microbial strain-level ecological trait (characteristic), and denitrification potential (functional performance) can be inferred from trait rules that rely on the presence or absence of genes for denitrifying enzymes in microbial genomes. Despite the global significance of denitrification and associated large-scale genomic and scholarly data sources, there is lack of datasets and interactive computational tools for investigating microbial genomes according to denitrification trait rules. Therefore, our goal is to categorize archaeal and bacterial genomes by denitrification potential based on denitrification traits defined by rules of enzyme involvement in the denitrification reduction steps. We report the integration of datasets on genome, taxonomic lineage, ecosystem, and denitrifying enzymes to provide data investigations context for the denitrification potential of microbial strains. We constructed an ecosystem and taxonomic annotated denitrification potential dataset of 62,624 microbial genomes (866 archaea and 61,758 bacteria) that encode at least one of the twelve denitrifying enzymes in the four-step canonical denitrification pathway. Our four-digit binary-coding scheme categorized the microbial genomes to one of sixteen denitrification traits including complete denitrification traits assigned to 3280 genomes from 260 bacteria genera. The bacterial strains with complete denitrification potential pattern included Arcobacteraceae strains isolated or detected in diverse ecosystems including aquatic, human, plant, and Mollusca (shellfish). The dataset on microbial denitrification potential and associated interactive data investigations tools can serve as research resources for understanding the biochemical, molecular, and physiological aspects of microbial denitrification, among others. The microbial denitrification data resources produced in our research can also be useful for identifying microbial strains for synthetic denitrifying communities.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Renewable Schiff-Base Ionic Liquids for Lignocellulosic Biomass Pretreatment

Growing interest in sustainable sources of chemicals and energy from renewable and reliable sources has stimulated the design and synthesis of renewable Schiff-base (iminium) ionic liquids (ILs) to replace fossil-derived ILs. In this study, we report on the synthesis of three unique iminium-acetate ILs from lignin-derived aldehyde for a sustainable “future” lignocellulosic biorefinery. The synthesized ILs contained only imines or imines along with amines in their structure; the ILs with only imines group exhibited better pretreatment efficacy, achieving >89% sugar release. Various analytical and computational tools were employed to understand the pretreatment efficacy of these ILs. This is the first study to demonstrate the ease of synthesis of these renewable ILs, and therefore, opens the door for a new class of “Schiff-base ILs” for further investigation that could also be designed to be task specific.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Reductions in wind farm main bearing rating lives resulting from wake impingement

This paper studies the impacts of wake impingement on main bearing rating lives predicted during the wind turbine design stage. A computational tool chain was developed to explore and quantify these effects across a wind farm populated by 10 MW wind turbines. Wind field and turbine load modelling was undertaken using the Dynamiks Python package, including application of a dynamic wake meandering model. The ISO 281 basic bearing rating life formulation was subsequently applied in order to evaluate impacts from wake effects. Analyses included a two-turbine parametric analysis, followed by a full wind farm analysis undertaken for the TotalControl 32-turbine reference wind farm, including full wind rose simulations across all operational wind speeds. Site conditions were accounted for using a Weibull wind speed distribution and a range of parametric wind direction rose models. Results indicate that wind farm main bearing rating lives are negatively impacted by the effects of wake impingement, resulting in rating life reductions for the analysed wind farm of the order of 16 % on average and as much as 20 %–25 %, both for the locating main bearing. Despite these high sensitivities, it is important to note that these resultant rating lives (i.e. the predicted lives) still far exceed the standard wind turbine operational lifetimes of 20–30 years. Wake impacts were also found to be asymmetrically related to the side on which the rotor is impinged, suggesting that, for the main bearing, there may be a “better” side for wake impingement to occur. Rating life sensitivities to wind rose shape were also observed. While these findings must be interpreted with due consideration for the various methodological limitations present, they provide compelling evidence that wake effects at the wind farm level should necessarily be included when undertaking main bearing operational load modelling, rating life assessment, or other load-related analyses.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Mechanical properties of zeolite-templated carbons from approximate density functional theory calculations

Zeolite-templated carbon (ZTC) is a unique porous carbonaceous material whose structure is ordered at the nanometre scale, enabling a representative periodic description at the atomistic level. Utilizing an existing, well-defined reference model for ZTCs, a structural library of varying compositions was developed by refinement using density-functional tight-binding (DFTB) potentials parameterized for materials science applications. We first determined the quantum chemical-refined structures of models with CH, CHO, CHON, CHOB, and CHOBN compositions with various degrees of heteroatom substitution. These structural models comprise the characteristic morphological features of highly porous carbon materials, such as open-blade surfaces, edges, saddles, and closed-strut formations, spanning a range of curvatures and characteristic sizes. Second, we carried out alternating compression and expansion of the CHO model unit cell to determine the lowest energy structure as well as to obtain its bulk modulus in order to demonstrate a close connection between macroscopic observations and atomic-scale structures. Further, the agreement between experimental measurements and the computational model is remarkable and demonstrates the power of approximate density functional theory as a cost-effective computational tool with chemical accuracy for the investigation of structure/property relationships in real-world carbon-based solids.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Community-Scale Energy Efficiency Assessment for Zero Net Energy Using the URBANopt Simulation Platform: Preprint

This project explored an innovative modeling approach for assessing the energy efficiency potential of the existing low-income Oceano neighborhood, in unincorporated San Luis Obispo County, and its effects on renewable generation requirements for achieving zero net energy (ZNE). One particular challenge faced was ascertaining the technical energy savings potential across a large neighborhood in a timely manner. The project overcame this challenge through the use of the URBANopt simulation platform, developed at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. URBANopt manages the automated model creation, simulation, and result aggregation for different design scenarios of existing or candidate buildings in a large neighborhood. Customized energy efficiency packages considered for the residential and commercial sector in the neighborhood included lighting, HVAC, plug load, water heating, envelope, and energy education measures. As a result of the analysis for the Oceano community, energy efficiency measures that are available through incentive programs may provide a 7.4% reduction in the required distributed energy resource (DER) size, corresponding to a 25,000 ft2 decrease in PV array area, to achieve ZNE. Through this work, a computational tool was developed and is being leveraged by the County of San Luis Obispo (CoSLO). The tool has enabled the CoSLO staff to perform similar analysis of the technical potential for energy efficiency, and an understanding of the DER asset requirements and potential savings in other communities within the county.

building energy modeling↗

BETO 2021 Peer Review - Inverse Bioproduct Design Through Machine Learning and Molecular Simulation

This work aims to identify performance advantaged bioproducts (PABPs) through property prediction, which will guide experimental synthesis. The impact of this work will be faster market adoption of bioproducts with greater performance relative to incumbent products. We have identified >106 bioproduct candidates, but only some will have superior performance to create a market pull. High-throughput property prediction, enabled by machine learning, and elucidation of structure-function relationships, enabled by molecular simulation, provide a hypothesis driven approach for down selection of candidate biomolecules to pursue experimentally. To enable machine learning and molecular simulation for bioproduct discovery, automated structure generation and embedding must capture relevant features for prediction, databases must cover domains applicable to biobased products, and best practices for simulation of polymer systems must be developed. To address these challenges, we have established bioproduct relevant datasets, developed high-throughput polymer structure generation, and built end-to-end neural networks that have predicted 8 properties for >1.4 x 106 biopolymers. A molecular simulation pipeline for building, running, and analyzing polymers and polymer additives is being used to predict performance and develop design principles of biobased products. In collaboration with the PABP synthesis project, these computational tools are guiding synthesis and informing design of PABPs.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Economic and Environmental Assessment of Biological Conversions of Agile BioFoundry (ABF) Bio-Derived Chemicals

Bio-derived chemicals are an essential part of the growing bioeconomy. They possess the potential to boost a new domestic bioproduct industry, improve the sustainability of integrated biomanufacturing, and reduce U.S. dependence on fossil energy. The Agile BioFoundry (ABF) consortium, a Department of Energy (DOE)-sponsored collaboration, is investigating biobased pathways to produce advantaged products including advanced biofuels, fuel intermediates, and bioproducts. ABF is integrating advanced computational tools for biological engineering, process design and data analysis, and economic/sustainability modeling tools into a comprehensive and dynamic platform for biomanufacturing of microbes and using them to produce key metabolic intermediates or beachhead molecules which may be derivatized into several distinct bioproducts of industrial interest. In this presentation, we first discuss a methodology to select a single exemplar product molecule to represent each beachhead pathway based on similarities with other end-molecule options (yields/titers/rates, fermentation operation mode, oxygen requirements, general separations challenges, etc.), in order to maintain a reasonable number of cases for rigorous process simulation. We then use techno-economic analysis (TEA) and life-cycle analysis (LCA) to highlight sensitivities and trends around economic performance and environmental footprint, reflecting examples for two selected ABF technology pathways to bio-derived chemicals: 1) adipic acid production via muconic acid fermentation from mixed sugars with Pseudomonas putida and 2) cineole via geranyl diphosphate with Rhodosporidium toruloides. We present multi-variable scan plots highlighting key drivers on costs and greenhouse gas emissions in order to identify the parameter space in which each pathway could ultimately achieve economic and environmental sustainability meeting or exceeding commodity product benchmarks, thus prioritizing future R&D focus areas.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Machine Learning and Cosmology

Methods based on machine learning have recently made substantial inroads in many corners of cosmology. Through this process, new computational tools, new perspectives on data collection, model development, analysis, and discovery, as well as new communities and educational pathways have emerged. Despite rapid progress, substantial potential at the intersection of cosmology and machine learning remains untapped. In this white paper, we summarize current and ongoing developments relating to the application of machine learning within cosmology and provide a set of recommendations aimed at maximizing the scientific impact of these burgeoning tools over the coming decade through both technical development as well as the fostering of emerging communities.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Biochemical Process Modeling and Simulation (BPMS)

The Biochemical Process Modeling and Simulation project aims to reduce the cost and time of research by applying theory, modeling, and simulation to the most relevant bottlenecks in the biochemical process. We use molecular modeling, quantum mechanics, metabolic modeling, fluid dynamics, and reaction-diffusion methods in close collaboration with pretreatment, hydrolysis, upgrading, and TEA. The project's outcomes are increased yields and efficiency of the biochemical process, added value to products, and reduced price of fuels by specifically targeting catalytic efficiency, reactor design, enzyme efficiency, and microbial design. We work closely with experimental projects to identify problems and iterate with experiments to find and refine solutions. By working with experimentalists, we decide on problems that can be solved with simulation that could otherwise not be solved or would take too long with experiment alone to reach BETO's targets. Over the years, we have produced solutions that have resulted in determining the most likely fatty-acid derivative for passive transport out of bacteria that upgrade biomass, and we have also designed enzyme mutations for enhanced lignin upgrading. Metabolic models have been developed to tune the activity of 2,3 butanediol production for the 2030 target. A computational method to deliver understanding of how complex omics data can be interpreted in the metabolic pathways of organisms used in the Agile Biofoundry. We have found methods to overcome specific barriers and continue to develop those methods. Our reactor studies have guided the design of both the microbes and reactors for aerobic and micro-aerobic production at all scales and have been instrumental in improving the accuracy of techno-economic analysis models. This project is essential in the process of selecting the final processes for 2030 SAF production targets. More specifically, recently, we have: 1) Predicted the strength of the basic structural interactions in commodity plastics to provide guidance for plastics upcycling strategies. 2) Developed computational tool to improve the characterization of lignin-derived compounds 3) Developed new methodologies to enable Machine Learning-based Directed Evolution for protein engineering. 4) Developed Machine Learning methods to predict protein promiscuity and mutations to further improve microbial and enzymatic driven processes and demonstrated the utility of ML approaches to engineering proteins from sparse experimental datasets. 5) Developed new methods to enable high-fidelity simulation of aerobic fermentation at industrial scale and resolving mismatch of time scales through subcycling/operator splitting 7) Identified the difficulty in preventing local high-oxygen conditions in industrial bubble columns, which leads to less-desirable acetoin production, suggesting future research directions in alternative reactor configurations (e.g loop reactors, shallow-channel reactors).

BIOMASS FUELS↗

Multiphysics Analysis of the MSRE Experiment Using Griffin-SAM Coupled Code System

Molten salt reactors (MSRs) with flowing fuel have the unique feature of utilizing the fuel salt for heat generation and extraction at the same time since the fuel salt is circulating through the whole primary loop of the reactor. This movement of the fuel salt results in a partial decay of the delayed neutron precursors (DNPs) outside the core and corresponding redistribution in the active core region. To capture this phenomenon accurately, neutronics and thermal hydraulics computational tools need to be modified to handle the movement of the DNPs and their decay. Idaho and Argonne National Laboratories are actively working on developing neutronics and thermal hydraulics tools to model MSRs with flowing fuel. The neutronics code Griffin and the thermal hydraulics code SAM were extended to handle flowing fuel with the drift of the DNPs under the MOOSE framework. In this work, a simplified Multiphysics model of the Molten Salt Reactor Experiment (MSRE) is developed and utilized to perform steady-state and transient analyses. The MSRE experiments were designed to show the impact of the DNPs losses on core reactivity. The following section provides a description of the MSRE experiment with the core main parameters used to develop the model. Then, the developed Multiphysics model of the MSRE is presented. Finally, steady-state verification tests and unprotected loss of flow transient tests are discussed followed by a summary and conclusions.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Development of a Multi-Sensor Data Science System Used for Signature Development on Solvent Extraction Processes in support of safeguards- an overview

A new nuclear fuel cycle test bed is being built at Idaho National Laboratory to support the purification of special nuclear material recovered from used fuel. The test bed provides an opportunity to research process flow and the application of computational tools in solvent extraction processes. A deeper understanding of process and equipment behavior coupled with real time data collection can indicate whether a process failure is accidental or purposeful. The goal of this project is to develop a system that utilizes non-traditional measurement sources such as vibration, acoustics, current, light, flow, and temperature in conjunction with data-based, machine learning techniques that will allow for signal discovery. This multi-sensor data can support the development of safeguards by design and security by design measures for such a facility. Additionally, it can aid in early detection and identification of removed materials indicating diversion, which is essential for initiating material recovery and actor identification. This overview encompasses the current research and testing of sensors to develop a spectrum of process signatures. To be followed by planned experiments aimed to characterize said signatures and study potential feature extraction techniques to identify a fault in the system (i.e. flow diversion).

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Effect of Si Content in Electrode and SiO2 Additions to the Slag during Electroslag Remelting

Evolution of Si concentration in 316 stainless steel electrodes was observed during a melting campaign consisting of recycling electroslag remelted (ESR) ingots to make new electrodes using vacuum induction melting (VIM). This campaign consisted of iterations of VIM + ESR operations to optimize melting parameters. The effect of Si content on the melt parameters and ingot quality was further evaluated and additions of SiO2 to the slag chemistry were studied using research-scale experiments, x-ray diffraction (XRF), combustion analysis, visual inspections, and computational tools. The Si concentration was found to decrease by approximately 600 ppm following ESR of 150 lb. research-scale electrodes. Eventually, this led to failure of the slag skin and direct ingot/crucible contact. Additions of SiO2 to the slag at levels matching the original calculated Si concentration in the electrode did not eliminate the slag skin failure and the current during steady state increased to maintain a constant melt rate. In this investigation, we propose a mechanism of slag skin failure consisting of local concentration of current density due to absence, or breakage, of the SiO2 layer around the molten metal drop during ESR. This theory was reinforced by additional experiments in which Nb was added to the electrode to change the structure of the oxide layer around the drops.

Jablonski, Paul↗

NEA HTTR LOFC Project Test#3 Benchmark Results

In the second half of FY23, the High Temperature Engineering Test Reactor (HTTR) Loss Of Forced Cooling (LOFC)#3 data for the 9 MW test case with Vessel Cooling System (VCS) off were made available through the Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) LOFC project framework; the neutronic model developed for the initial test (LOFC#1) achieved a satisfactory level of maturity, demonstrating its accuracy in predicting power evolution and core re-criticality, but LOFC#3 should be used primarily to investigate thermal hydraulic phenomena, as the reactor was shut down prematurely due to overheating in the upper reactor components, which prevented re-criticality; this report focuses on advancing the HTTR thermal hydraulic model to accurately simulate the LOFC#3 scenario, including simulating the LOFC#3 benchmark and generating the corresponding benchmark specifications, aiming to ensure consistency across participant models and provide essential data for future participants, including private industry stakeholders seeking to validate their computational tools.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Response of Subsurface Nitrogen-Cycling Microbial Communities to Environmental Fluctuations (Final Technical Report)

Riparian floodplains are dynamic ecosystems linking terrestrial and riverine systems. These floodplains experience hydrological shifts such as changes in water table height, flooding, and drought and can be ‘hotspots’ of biogeochemical cycling due to shifting sediment moisture (and saturation) and subsurface exchanges of water, nutrients, and other compounds across different sediment layers. Subsurface microbial communities are the primary drivers of biogeochemical processes in floodplains, and thus their structure and function can directly influence both surface and groundwater quality. The microbial nitrogen (N) cycle is particularly important in floodplains as it affects nutrient availability and removal. Two functional guilds of chemoautotrophic (i.e. CO2-fixing) microorganisms are responsible for the first oxidative step of the N cycle, nitrification: ammonia-oxidizing archaea (AOA) and bacteria (AOB) catalyze the oxidation of ammonia to nitrite, while nitrite-oxidizing bacteria (NOB) oxidize nitrite to nitrate. Despite the critical role nitrification plays in N-cycling in both terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, our understanding of the diversity, ecophysiology, and activity of nitrifying organisms in subsurface floodplain soils/sediments is extremely limited. To help address this critical knowledge gap, the overarching goal of this project was to determine how shifts in key environmental parameters and gradients impact microbial N-cycling communities/processes, with particular emphasis on nitrification, within hydrologically-variable floodplain sediments in the Wind River Basin near Riverton, Wyoming. The three specific objectives of this project were to: (1) to associate in situ environmental drivers of N cycling with distinct functional guilds; (2) determine the guild response to variation in key ecosystem drivers; and (3) develop a dynamic ecosystem model of the microbial N cycle with the Riverton subsurface using community genomic and biogeochemical data collected in the first two objectives. Over the course of this project, we employed both 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequencing and genome-resolved metagenomics to examine the phylogenetic diversity and metabolic potential of subsurface nitrifier communities within 68 samples collected across multiple sites, depths, and time points within the Riverton floodplain, allowing for both spatial and temporal investigations at different scales. This project benefitted tremendously from recent advances in high-throughput sequencing technologies coupled with dramatic improvements in the computational tools and algorithms available for analyzing such large, complex genomic datasets. By pairing these cutting-edge genomic approaches with depth-resolved sampling and detailed geochemical analyses of the Riverton floodplain, we have gained novel insights into the structure and function of subsurface nitrifier communities in relation to both hydrology and biogeochemistry. This project resulted in the most detailed and comprehensive characterization of N-cycling floodplain microbial communities to date and will hopefully inspire and pave the way for future studies using similar approaches in other floodplains. Indeed, such information is critical for understanding subsurface biogeochemical cycling and how elemental stores are altered from perturbations initiated by the water cycle within floodplains. Finally, because of the terrestrial-aquatic nature of the Riverton floodplain, results from this project are also of relevance to disciplines such as soil science, estuarine science, limnology & oceanography, biogeochemistry, geobiology, environmental engineering, as well as genomics and data science.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

ASSESSING FUEL PROPERTY EFFECTS ON CAVITATION AND EROSION PROPENSITY USING A COMPUTATIONAL FUEL SCREENING TOOL

To advance compression ignition combustion strategies, researchers have evaluated fuel property effects and their impact on achieving higher efficiencies and lower emissions levels relative to current capabilities. Within the Department of Energy's Co-Optima initiative, there has been a recent focus on understanding the influence of fuel properties on fuel injection performance. To help identify candidate fuels that can meet desired injector performance metrics, a computational fuel screening tool is under development that can link fuel properties with the tendency of a given fuel to cavitate and lead to cavitation-induced erosion. In the initial development of this tool, five liquid fuel properties were selected to represent candidate fuels, namely density, viscosity, vapor pressure, surface tension, and heat of vaporization. A design of experiments methodology was employed to generate a set of pseudo fuel cases, which can represent the main effects and interactions among the fuel properties and be related to cavitation erosion predictions. Large eddy simulations were performed using a mixture modeling approach to predict the cavitation and erosion propensity of these pseudo-fuels in terms of the mean fuel vapor mole fraction and stored impact energy from repeated cloud collapse events. The low order regression models generated from this study revealed the importance of liquid fuel density on cavitation formation, whereas liquid viscosity was found to have a strong negative correlation with erosion severity. The surrogate models were then used in the fuel screening tool to rank the cavitation and erosion tendency of four candidate single-component fuels: methyl decanoate, isooctane, ethanol and n-dodecane. While the fuel screening tool was not able to quantitatively predict the cavitation and erosion response metrics, the tool was able to accurately rank the relative cavitation and erosion propensity of the four fuels. Overall, ethanol and iso-octane were observed to produce the highest levels of cavitation and erosion, respectively.

cavitation-induced erosion↗

Multi-tool optimization for computer controlled optical surfacing

With the rapid development of precision technologies, the demand of high-precision optical surfaces has drastically increased. These optical surfaces are mainly fabricated with computer controlled optical surfacing (CCOS). In a CCOS process, a target surface removal profile is achieved by scheduling the dwell time for a set of machine tools. The optimized dwell time should be positive and smooth to ensure convergence to the target while considering CNC dynamics. The total run time of each machine tool is also expected to be balanced to improve the overall processing efficiency. In the past few decades, dwell time optimization for a single machine tool has been extensively developed. While the methods are applicable to multi-tool scenarios, they fail to consider the overall contributions of multiple tools simultaneously. In this paper, we conduct a systematic study on the strategies for multi-tool dwell time optimization and propose an innovative method for simultaneously scheduling dwell time for multiple tools for the first time. First, the influential factors to the positiveness and smoothness of dwell time solutions for a single machine tool are analyzed. The compensation strategies that minimize the residual while considering the CNC dynamics limit are then proposed. Afterwards, these strategies are extended to the proposed multi-tool optimization that further balances the run time of machine tools. Finally, the superiority of each strategy is carefully studied via simulation and experiment. The experiment is performed by bonnet polishing a 60 mm × 60 mm mirror with three tools of different diameters ( i.e., 12 mm, 8 mm, and 5 mm). The figure error of the mirror is reduced from 45.42 nm to 11.18 nm root mean square in 13.28 min. Moreover, the measured polishing result well coincides with the estimation, which proves the effectiveness of the proposed method.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Generalized Bayesian MARS: Tools for Stochastic Computer Model Emulation

The multivariate adaptive regression spline (MARS) approach of Friedman and its Bayesian counterpart are effective approaches for the emulation of computer models. The traditional assumption of Gaussian errors limits the usefulness of MARS, and many popular alternatives, when dealing with stochastic computer models. Here, we propose a generalized Bayesian MARS (GBMARS) framework which admits the broad class of generalized hyperbolic distributions as the induced likelihood function. This allows us to develop tools for the emulation of stochastic simulators which are parsimonious, scalable, and interpretable and require minimal tuning, while providing powerful predictive and uncertainty quantification capabilities. GBMARS is capable of robust regression with t distributions, quantile regression with asymmetric Laplace distributions, and a general form of “Normal-Wald” regression in which the shape of the error distribution and the structure of the mean function are learned simultaneously. We demonstrate the effectiveness of GBMARS on various stochastic computer models, and we show that it compares favorably to several popular alternatives.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗