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NASA NTRS2010

Aviation Frontiers: On-Demand Aircraft

Throughout the 20th Century, NASA has defined the forefront of aeronautical technology, and the aviation industry owes much of its prosperity to this knowledge and technology. In recent decades, centralized aeronautics has become a mature discipline, which raises questions concerning the future aviation innovation frontiers. Three transformational aviation capabilities, bounded together by the development of a Free Flight airspace management system, have the potential to transform 21st Century society as profoundly as civil aviation transformed the 20th Century. These mobility breakthroughs will re-establish environmental sustainable centralized aviation, while opening up latent markets for civil distributed sensing and on-demand rural and regional transportation. Of these three transformations, on-demand aviation has the potential to have the largest market and productivity improvement to society. The information system revolution over the past 20 years shows that vehicles lead, and the interconnecting infrastructure to make them more effective follows; that is, unless on-demand aircraft are pioneered, a distributed Air Traffic Control system will likely never be established. There is no single technology long-pole that will enable on-demand vehicle solutions. However, fully digital aircraft that include electric propulsion has the potential to be a multi-disciplinary initiator of solid state technologies that can provide order of magnitude improvements in the ease of use, safety/reliability, community and environmental friendliness, and affordability.

Moore, Mark D.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Managing Demand and Capacity Using Multi-Sector Planning and Flexible Airspace: Human-in-the-Loop Evaluation of NextGen

When demand for an airspace sector exceeds capacity, the balance can be re-established by reducing the demand, increasing the capacity, or both. The Multi-Sector Planner (MSP) concept has been proposed to better manage traffic demand by modifying trajectories across multiple sectors. A complementary approach to MSP, called Flexible Airspace Management (FAM), reconfigures the airspace such that capacity can be reallocated dynamically to balance the traffic demand across multiple sectors, resulting in fewer traffic management initiatives. The two concepts have been evaluated with a series of human-in-the-loop simulations at the Airspace Operations Laboratory to examine and refine the roles of the human operators in these concepts, as well as their tools and procedural requirements. So far MSP and FAM functions have been evaluated individually but the integration of the two functions is desirable since there are significant overlaps in their goals, geographic/temporal scope of the problem space, and the implementation timeframe. Ongoing research is planned to refine the humans roles in the integrated concept.

Lee, Paul U.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Understanding Air Transportation Market Dynamics Using a Search Algorithm for Calibrating Travel Demand and Price

This paper presents a search algorithm based framework to calibrate origin-destination (O-D) market specific airline ticket demands and prices for the Air Transportation System (ATS). This framework is used for calibrating an agent based model of the air ticket buy-sell process - Airline Evolutionary Simulation (Airline EVOS) -that has fidelity of detail that accounts for airline and consumer behaviors and the interdependencies they share between themselves and the NAS. More specificially, this algorithm simultaneous calibrates demand and airfares for each O-D market, to within specified threshold of a pre-specified target value. The proposed algorithm is illustrated with market data targets provided by the Transportation System Analysis Model (TSAM) and Airline Origin and Destination Survey (DB1B). Although we specify these models and datasources for this calibration exercise, the methods described in this paper are applicable to calibrating any low-level model of the ATS to some other demand forecast model-based data. We argue that using a calibration algorithm such as the one we present here to synchronize ATS models with specialized forecast demand models, is a powerful tool for establishing credible baseline conditions in experiments analyzing the effects of proposed policy changes to the ATS.

Kumar, Vivek↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Communication Demand in the National Airspace - A Federated Learning Approach

Within the national airspace system (NAS), efficient use of spectrum remains a challenge; as UAS and UAM missions evolve, the amount of mission-critical aircraft communications are expected to significantly grow. To accommodate the increased demand, NASA Glenn Research Center is investigating artificial intelligence approaches that could dynamically allocate spectrum; however, these solutions are driven by communication and aviation data items, many of which are not directly available. One such cornerstone data item is communication demand, parameterizing the needs within a sector in terms that may directly inform spectrum allocation, such as channel access duration, bandwidth, and modulation type. This paper considers the complexity of predicting communication demand as a function of NAS behaviors. Unlike prior prediction work in communications, this research must consider how the NAS may be impacted by external factors - such as convective weather and closures - rather than estimating demand from time-series forecasting alone. Much of this research considers a federated learning design to predict communication events in terms of the type of event occurring (sector coordination, conflict resolution, etc.). To do so, an investigation of products from Sherlock Data Warehouse is conducted, identifying the trends, sufficiency, and correlations of each product to identified events. Additionally, a preliminary discussion for inferring associations between these event types and their communication parameters (duration, bandwidth, modulation) is presented. By utilizing federated learning, imbalances in the types of events and data present throughout the NAS can inform local models without impairing global training. Furthermore, the two-stage approach proposed allows for robust and speculative communication modelling, as communication techniques continue to evolve. As a result, this model enables a generalized approach to understanding NAS communications which is able to inform long-term changes to aviation spectrum management.

Nathan Schimpf↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Federated Learning Approach to Predicting Communication Demand in the National Airspace

Within the national airspace system (NAS), efficient use of spectrum remains a challenge; as UAS and UAM missions evolve, the amount of mission-critical aircraft communications are expected to significantly grow. To accommodate the increased demand, NASA Glenn Research Center is investigating artificial intelligence approaches that could dynamically allocate spectrum; however, these solutions are driven by communication and aviation data items, many of which are not directly available. One such cornerstone data item is communication demand, parameterizing the needs within a sector in terms that may directly inform spectrum allocation, such as channel access duration, bandwidth, and modulation type. This paper considers the complexity of predicting communication demand as a function of NAS behaviors. Unlike prior prediction work in communications, this research must consider how the NAS may be impacted by external factors - such as convective weather and closures - rather than estimating demand from time-series forecasting alone. Much of this research considers a federated learning design to predict communication events in terms of the type of event occurring (sector coordination, conflict resolution, etc). To do so, an investigation of products from Sherlock Data Warehouse is conducted, identifying the trends, sufficiency, and correlations of each product to identified events. Additionally, a preliminary discussion for inferring associations between these event types and their communication parameters (duration, bandwidth, modulation) is presented. By utilizing federated learning, imbalances in the types of events and data present throughout the NAS can inform local models without impairing global training. Furthermore, the two-stage approach proposed allows for robust and speculative communication modelling, as communication techniques continue to evolve. As a result, this model enables a generalized approach to understanding NAS communications which is able to inform long-term changes to aviation spectrum management.

Nathan Schimpf↗

NASA NTRS2022

Estimating groundwater use and demand in arid Kenya through assimilation of satellite data and in-situ sensors with machine learning toward drought early action

Groundwater is an important source of water for people, livestock, and agriculture during drought in the Horn of Africa. In this work, areas of high groundwater use and demand in drought-prone Kenya were identified and forecasted prior to the dry season. Estimates of groundwater use were extended from a sentinel network of 69 in-situ sensored mechanical boreholes to the region with satellite data and a machine learning model. The sensors contributed 756 site-month observations from June 2017 to September 2021 for model building and validation at a density of approximately one sensor per 3700 sq.km. An ensemble of 19 parameterized algorithms was informed by features including satellite-derived precipitation, surface water availability, vegetation indices, hydrologic land surface modeling, and site characteristics to dichotomize high groundwater pump utilization. Three operational definitions of high demand on groundwater infrastructure were considered: 1) mechanical runtime of pumps greater than a quarter of a day (6+ hr) and daily per capita volume extractions indicative of 2) domestic water needs (35+ L), and 3) intermediate needs including livestock (75+ L). Gridded interpolation of localized groundwater use and demand was provided from 2017 to 2020 and forecasted for the 2021 dry season, June–September 2021. Cross-validated skill for contemporary estimates of daily pump runtime and daily volume extraction to meet domestic and intermediate water needs was 68%, 69%, and 75%, respectively. Forecasts were externally validated with an accuracy of at least 56%, 70%, or 72% for each groundwater use definition. The groundwater maps are accessible to stakeholders including the Kenya National Drought Management Authority (NDMA) and the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET). These maps represent the first operational spatially-explicit sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) estimates of groundwater use and demand in the literature. Knowledge of historical and forecasted groundwater use is anticipated to improve decision-making and resource allocation for a range of early warning early action applications.

Katie Fankhauser↗

DOE OSTI2016

Utilizing Thermal Mass in Refrigerated Display Cases to Reduce Peak Demand

The potential to store energy within refrigerated food products presents convenience store and supermarket operators with an opportunity to participate in utility sponsored demand response programs, whereby electricity usage can be shifted or reduced during peak periods. To determine the feasibility of reducing peak demand by shifting the refrigeration load to off-peak times, experimental and analytical analyses were performed. Simulated product, consisting of one-pint containers filled with a 50% ethylene glycol and 50% water solution, were stored in a medium-temperature vertical open refrigerated display case. Product temperature rise as a function of time was determined by turning off the refrigeration to the display case, while product temperature pull-down time was subsequently determined by turning on the refrigeration to the display case. It was found that the thermal mass of the product in a medium-temperature display case was such that during a 2.5 hour period with no refrigeration, the average product temperature increased by 5.5 C. In addition, it took approximately 3.5 hours for the product to recover to its initial temperature after the refrigeration was turned on. Transient heat conduction analyses for one-dimensional objects is in good agreement with the experimental results obtained in this study. From the analysis, it appears that the thermal mass of the stored product in refrigerated display cases is sufficient to allow product temperatures to safely drift for a significant time under reduced refrigeration system operation. Thus, strategies for shifting refrigeration system electrical demand can be developed. The use of an advanced refrigeration system controller that can respond to utility signals can enable demand shifting with minimal impact.

Fricke, Brian A↗

DOE OSTI2015

Estimating Reduced Consumption for Dynamic Demand Response

Growing demand is straining our existing electricity generation facilities and requires active participation of the utility and the consumers to achieve energy sustainability. One of the most effective and widely used ways to achieve this goal in the smart grid is demand response (DR), whereby consumers reduce their electricity consumption in response to a request sent from the utility whenever it anticipates a peak in demand. To successfully plan and implement demand response, the utility requires reliable estimate of reduced consumption during DR. This also helps in optimal selection of consumers and curtailment strategies during DR. While much work has been done on predicting normal consumption, reduced consumption prediction is an open problem that is under-studied. In this paper, we introduce and formalize the problem of reduced consumption prediction, and discuss the challenges associated with it. We also describe computational methods that use historical DR data as well as pre-DR conditions to make such predictions. Our experiments are conducted in the real-world setting of a university campus microgrid, and our preliminary results set the foundation for more detailed modeling.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2016

Automated Dynamic Demand Response Implementation on a Micro-grid

In this paper, we describe a system for real-time automated Dynamic and Sustainable Demand Response with sparse data consumption prediction implemented on the University of Southern California campus microgrid. Supply side approaches to resolving energy supply-load imbalance do not work at high levels of renewable energy penetration. Dynamic Demand Response (D 2 R) is a widely used demand-side technique to dynamically adjust electricity consumption during peak load periods. Our D 2 R system consists of accurate machine learning based energy consumption forecasting models that work with sparse data coupled with fast and sustainable load curtailment optimization algorithms that provide the ability to dynamically adapt to changing supply-load imbalances in near real-time. Our Sustainable DR (SDR) algorithms attempt to distribute customer curtailment evenly across sub-intervals during a DR event and avoid expensive demand peaks during a few sub-intervals. It also ensures that each customer is penalized fairly in order to achieve the targeted curtailment. We develop near linear-time constant-factor approximation algorithms along with Polynomial Time Approximation Schemes (PTAS) for SDR curtailment that minimizes the curtailment error defined as the difference between the target and achieved curtailment values. Our SDR curtailment problem is formulated as an Integer Linear Program that optimally matches customers to curtailment strategies during a DR event while also explicitly accounting for customer strategy switching overhead as a constraint. We demonstrate the results of our D 2 R system using real data from experiments performed on the USC smartgrid and show that 1) our prediction algorithms can very accurately predict energy consumption even with noisy or missing data and 2) our curtailment algorithms deliver DR with extremely low curtailment errors in the 0.01-0.05 kWh range.

Kuppannagari, Sanmukh R.↗

DOE OSTI2015

Prediction Models for Dynamic Demand Response

As Smart Grids move closer to dynamic curtailment programs, Demand Response (DR) events will become necessary not only on fixed time intervals and weekdays predetermined by static policies, but also during changing decision periods and weekends to react to real-time demand signals. Unique challenges arise in this context vis-a-vis demand prediction and curtailment estimation and the transformation of such tasks into an automated, efficient dynamic demand response (D 2 R) process. While existing work has concentrated on increasing the accuracy of prediction models for DR, there is a lack of studies for prediction models for D 2 R, which we address in this paper. Our first contribution is the formal definition of D 2 R, and the description of its challenges and requirements. Our second contribution is a feasibility analysis of very-short-term prediction of electricity consumption for D 2 R over a diverse, large-scale dataset that includes both small residential customers and large buildings. Our third, and major contribution is a set of insights into the predictability of electricity consumption in the context of D 2 R. Specifically, we focus on prediction models that can operate at a very small data granularity (here 15-min intervals), for both weekdays and weekends - all conditions that characterize scenarios for D 2 R. We find that short-term time series and simple averaging models used by Independent Service Operators and utilities achieve superior prediction accuracy. We also observe that workdays are more predictable than weekends and holiday. Also, smaller customers have large variation in consumption and are less predictable than larger buildings. Key implications of our findings are that better models are required for small customers and for non-workdays, both of which are critical for D 2 R. Also, prediction models require just few days’ worth of data indicating that small amounts of historical training data can be used to make reliable predictions, simplifying the complexity of big data challenge associated with D 2 R.

Aman, Saima↗

DOE OSTI2019

Impacts of Travel Demand Information Diffusion on Reducing Empty Vehicle Miles Traveled by Ridesourcing Vehicles

Ride-hailing or ride-sourcing services provide alternative mobility options in several cities and have seen exponential growth in market share owing to the convenience they provide. Even though usage of such services may be associated with car-light and car-free lifestyles, there are growing concerns around their impact on urban transportation network operations due to empty miles driven without a passenger (deadheading). This study is motivated by the potential for reducing deadhead mileage by providing information on future trip demand to ride-sourcing drivers (at the destination end of their current trip). Future trip demand information enables the driver to wait in place for the next rider without cruising around and contributing to congestion. A machine learning model is applied using historical data to predict hourly and 10-minute future interval demand for ride-sourcing. Two heuristic algorithms have been developed to i) determine drivers that act on demand information received by waiting in place for the next rider, and ii) match drivers who wait to their next trip by minimizing deadheading distance. Data from ride-sourcing providers in Austin, Texas (RideAustin) and in Chengdu, China (DiDi) are leveraged to apply the methodology. Results show that the process results in 68%-82% and 53%-60% trip-level deadheading miles reduction for RideAustin and DiDi sample operations, respectively. As the maximum tolerable driver's waiting time increases, deadheading savings slightly increase. Even if the maximum percentage of drivers waiting is reduced, significant average deadheading savings by trip can be achieved for that portion.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2019

Electrification Futures Study: Scenarios for Demand-Side Adoption in the United States

Electrification - the potential for increased electricity demand due to new services and the shift from any non-electric source of energy to electricity at the point of final consumption - is a major emerging trend in energy markets around the world. Select driving forces for this trend are a collection of newly-improved electric end-use technologies, engaged consumers and manufacturers, and a variety of economic and policy objectives in different jurisdictions. NREL and partners are conducting a multi-year study of electrification scenarios, which will explore research questions related to the potential key technologies for, planning requirements for, and impacts of deep electrification of the U.S. economy. NREL recently published a report that presents scenarios with various degrees of future electrification in all major end-use sectors of the U.S. energy system, and quantifies impacts on the amount and shape of national and regional electricity demand. In addition, ongoing analysis is exploring how the U.S. electricity system could need to transform to meet changes in demand from an electrified economy, the potential role of demand-side flexibility in supporting reliable operations of a clean electricity grid, and the potential costs, benefits, and impacts of mass electrification. This talk will serve to frame some of the overall boundaries of the session and report on electrification levels and impacts under a variety of scenarios.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

DOE OSTI2020

Demand response providing ancillary services: A comparison of opportunities and challenges in US wholesale markets

Interest in using demand response (DR) resources to supply low cost reliability products to the bulk electricity system is on the rise due to the uncertain impacts of increasing penetrations of intermittent generation and recent rulings supporting demand side participation in wholesale markets from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. However, organized electricity and ancillary services markets are just beginning to support DR resources for ancillary services, and the set of rules and requirements for participation are unique to each market. This paper discusses the opportunities that exist in the ancillary service markets in each US Independent System Operator territory and identifies challenges to market participation for demand response resources. It compares resource requirements, limits to aggregation, measurement and verification, bidding requirements, market timelines, and the types of organizations that can play in the markets. Additionally, it uses market clearing prices and market size to compare what value may be extracted from these markets, and identifies how these prices are currently determined. Using these criteria, PJM and ERCOT have the most favorable conditions for demand response participation in ancillary service markets, and changes to rules that effect aggregation and minimum resource size could promote more participation in other AS markets across the US.

MacDonald, Jason↗

DOE OSTI2022

Detailed Laboratory Evaluation of Electric Demand Load Shifting Potential of Controlled Heat Pump Water Heaters

The demand profile management of electric end uses is vital research for utilities and policymakers planning greenhouse gas emission reductions. In this study, detailed laboratory research was conducted on the load shifting potential of 4 grid-connected HPWHs and one electric resistance water heaters (ERWH). The testing applied different CTA-2045 shed and critical peak command designs under three water draw profiles. Highly-controlled laboratory experiments were conducted in Florida. One of the four HPWHs was a prototype incorporating the new CTA-2045-B protocol feature allowing ‘advanced’ load-up above tank setpoint. A three-hour morning (6 – 9 AM) and four-hour evening curtailment (4 – 8 PM) were defined as the shed or critical peak periods reflecting high-value control periods for utility coincident load for system-wide electric demand reductions. Tests were performed under baseline conditions (no load shift) and under varied load-shifting schemes, including load up and advanced load up, ahead of shed and critical peak commands. Data were collected from December 2020 – February 2022 in the laboratory and compared with field experiments in Florida and the Pacific Northwest. Grid-connected HPWHs were found to reduce peak demand by up to 0.47 kW compared to uncontrolled HPWH units, depending on time of day, control scheme, draw profile, and temperature cluster. The load up strategy demonstrated the ability of all units to utilize heat pump mode for extended periods ahead of peak events. Demand reductions for the HPWHs were much larger when compared with the ERWH— up to 1.64 kW with large hot water draws in winter.

Fenaughty, Karen↗

DOE OSTI2024

Recharge Demand Mitigation for Latent Heat Thermal Energy Storage at Off-peak Hours

The utilization of integrated heat pump thermal energy storage (HP-TES) systems for space conditioning applications can reduce electrical power demand and achieve utility savings resulting from peak shaving and load shifting. However, issues arise when the energy required to recharge the TES exceeds the shifted energy demand, especially in extreme climates where high-temperature lifts between the outdoor air conditions and phase-change materials (PCMs) during recharging may occur. In this work, a single room-temperature (22°C) PCM-TES is integrated into a single-speed heat pump system using a secondary hydronic loop where the TES is recharged using the outdoor unit during off-peak hours. Three recharge strategies were investigated as potential pathways to reduce recharging power demand: (i) considering different heat source/sink temperatures, (ii) using a variable-speed compressor, and (iii) using a variable-speed pump. Simulations were conducted using Modelica for HP-TES recharging at different heat source/sink temperatures from -30 – 20℃ in heating mode and 0 – 30℃ in cooling mode. Results show that the most effective recharge demand reduction strategy is an HP-TES system using a single-speed compressor with a variable-speed pump for the hydronic loop run at preferable heat source/sink temperatures when the temperature lifts were reduced. Utilizing a variable-speed compressor for the HP-TES system reduced recharge time in extreme cases at the cost of additional compressor power input. The findings motivate potential control strategies that minimize recharge energy and maximize peak energy savings, hence reducing overall operating costs and annual energy consumption for HP-TES systems for space conditioning applications.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Techno-Economic Assessment of Data Center Load Demand Powered by Small Modular Reactors and Distributed Energy Resources

The rapid increase in data center energy demand, driven by AI and large-scale data processing, poses significant challenges to global energy infrastructure. Data centers require substantial and reliable energy for continuous operations and high-performance computing. Current electrical grids face issues such as transmission bottlenecks and aging infrastructure, making it difficult to meet these demands. Integrating inverter-based-resources (IBRs) like solar and wind presents both opportunities and challenges due to their intermittent nature. Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) offer a promising solution with their enhanced safety, modularity, reliability, and scalability, providing consistent base load power ideal for data center operations. This study presents a comprehensive techno-economic assessment of powering data center load demand using a combination of SMRs and IBRs with grid-connected and islanded mode. This study utilized Idaho National Laboratory’s (INL) HPC data center hourly load profiles and Xendee microgrid optimization platform to conduct the analysis. In this configuration, SMRs serves as the primary base load power source, consistently providing a steady supply of electricity necessary to meet the minimum load demand of the data center with support from the IBRs. Key performance indicators such as Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE), Net Present Value (NPV) has been calculated to assess the economic feasibility. The findings from this research will underscore the strategic benefits of integrating SMR plant with DERs – particularly for critical infrastructure load such as data centers.

14 - SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Demand response of loads having thermal reserves

Systems and methods are described herein that improve grid performance by smoothing demand using thermal reserves. The smoothed demand can reduce peak loads as well as the ramp rate of demand that will otherwise require the use of inefficient, expensive generation sources. These improvements are tied to the selective switching on or off electrical loads that are coupled to thermal reserves, effectively using the thermal reserves as an energy storage mechanism. Historical data of past usage can be used to create load model and ensure that effects on customer comfort are minimized while still accomplishing the beneficial effects for the overall grid, which enables grid owners to both reduce their operational cost by avoiding expensive generation and improve system reliability by achieving more predictable power demand.

Ren, Wei↗

DOE OSTI2026

Scaling Demand Flexibility: Building on 30 Years of Energy Efficiency Success

With electricity consumption across the United States (US) and Canada anticipated to grow, energy efficiency program administrators have a key role to play in helping to ensure energy affordability and reliability in support of the broader economic systems utilities and grid support. Connected, demand side load balancing solutions, such as load shifting heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) systems and managed charging for electric vehicles (EVs), can dynamically manage energy, allowing for more volumetric electricity consumption without incurring the expense of upgraded transmission and distribution capabilities. When combined, or aggregated, many small loads can be managed to have meaningful impact on energy demand on the grid. Utilities and their partners have an opportunity to leverage decades of experience and the infrastructure needed to assess, design, implement, and measure programs to scale up the adoption of equipment with built-in load flexibility capabilities. Current efforts among a wide variety of electricity system service providers, utilities, standards agencies, regulators, national labs and private industry stakeholders aim to identify common standards, metrics, and methodologies for valuing grid services offered by demand side equipment. By combining those efforts with decades of proven energy efficiency resources, utilities are poised to effectuate a scaling up of equipment with energy management capabilities installed in homes and businesses across the US and Canada. This paper will provide an overview of how utilities are approaching this era of load growth and new peak demands across the United States and Canada. It will highlight the specific strategies that program administrators are employing to advance market transformation for grid-enabled products and devices that have the greatest potential to reduce energy use and increase load flexibility.

Grant, Peter↗