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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 343 records · Page 19
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Assessing Metal Ion Assignment Accuracy in Protein Data Bank Models via Elemental Spectroscopy

Accurate representation of metal ions in macromolecular structures is critical for chemical interpretation, computational modeling, and machine-learning methods that rely on Protein Data Bank (PDB) entries. However, the elemental identity of metals modeled in crystallographic structures is often inferred indirectly and rarely validated experimentally. Here, we combine Particle Induced X-ray Emission (PIXE) and X-ray Fluorescence Spectroscopy (XRFS) to determine the elemental composition of protein samples used to generate 70 deposited metalloprotein crystal structures. By analyzing the original protein material employed for crystallization, but before the addition of crystallization buffer solutions, we assess whether the modeled metal ions in deposited structures are consistent with experimentally detectable elemental content. We find that in a majority of cases, the metals modeled in the corresponding PDB entries are inconsistent with the metals present in the protein samples before crystallization, or that additional metals are present but not represented in the structural models. Spectroscopic results were integrated with automated crystallographic validation metrics, including real-space Z-difference (RSZD) analysis and systematic rerefinement, to evaluate atomic-number mismatch at metal sites. PIXE and XRFS show strong agreement for dominant elemental signals and provide complementary, scalable approaches for identifying suspect metal assignments. This work does not address physiological or functional metalation but instead highlights a widespread data integrity issue in deposited macromolecular structures, PDB-wide. These results establish an experimentally corroborated link between elemental identity and crystallographic validation metrics, enabling the large-scale detection of chemically inconsistent annotations in structural databases used for computational modeling and machine learning.

Crystallization↗
DOE OSTI2025

Non-intrusive reduced-order modeling for dynamical systems with spatially localized features

This work presents a non-intrusive reduced-order modeling framework for dynamical systems with spatially localized features characterized by slow singular value decay. The proposed approach builds upon two existing methodologies for reduced and full-order non-intrusive modeling, namely Operator Inference (OpInf) and sparse Full-Order Model (sFOM) inference. We decompose the domain into two complementary subdomains that exhibit fast and slow singular value decay. The dynamics of the subdomain exhibiting slow singular value decay are learned with sFOM while the dynamics with intrinsically low dimensionality on the complementary subdomain are learned with OpInf. The resulting, coupled OpInf-sFOM formulation leverages the computational efficiency of OpInf and the high resolution of sFOM, and thus enables fast non-intrusive predictions for conditions beyond those sampled in the training data set. A novel regularization technique with a closed-form solution based on the Gershgorin disk theorem is introduced to promote stable sFOM and OpInf models. We also provide a data-driven indicator for subdomain selection and ensure solution smoothness over the interface via a post-processing interpolation step. We evaluate the efficiency of the approach in terms of offline and online speedup through a quantitative, parametric computational cost analysis. We demonstrate the coupled OpInf-sFOM formulation for two test cases: a one-dimensional Burgers’ model for which accurate predictions beyond the span of the training snapshots are presented, and a two-dimensional parametric model for the Pine Island Glacier ice thickness dynamics, for which the OpInf-sFOM model achieves an average prediction error on the order of 1% with an online speedup factor of approximately 8$\times$ compared to the numerical simulation.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Cosmological parameter estimation with a joint-likelihood analysis of the cosmic microwave background and big bang nucleosynthesis

Here, we present a joint-likelihood analysis of big bang nucleosynthesis (BBN) and cosmic microwave background (CMB) data, consistently combining likelihoods and taking into account uncertainties in nuclear reaction rates for the first time. Bayesian inference is performed on the baryon abundance and the effective number of neutrino species, 𝑁 eff , using a CMB Boltzmann solver in combination with LINX , a new flexible and efficient BBN code. We marginalize over Planck nuisance parameters and nuclear rates to find 𝑁 eff =3.0⁢8$^{+0.15}_{−0.14}$, 2.9⁢4$^{+0.16}_{−0.15}$, or 2.96$^{+0.13}_{−0.14}$, for three separate reaction networks. This framework enables robust testing of the lambda cold dark matter paradigm and its variants with CMB and BBN data.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating cosmological biases using photometric redshifts for Type Ia Supernova cosmology with the Dark Energy Survey Supernova Program

Cosmological analyses with Type Ia Supernovae (SNe Ia) have traditionally been reliant on spectroscopy for both classifying the type of supernova and obtaining reliable redshifts to measure the distance–redshift relation. While obtaining a host-galaxy spectroscopic redshift for most SNe is feasible for small-area transient surveys, it will be too resource intensive for upcoming large-area surveys such as the Vera Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time, which will observe on the order of millions of SNe. Here, we use data from the Dark Energy Survey (DES) to address this problem with photometric redshifts (photo-z) inferred directly from the SN light curve in combination with Gaussian and full p(z) priors from host-galaxy photo-z estimates. Using the DES 5-yr photometrically classified SN sample, we consider several photo-z algorithms as host-galaxy photo-z priors, including the Self-Organizing Map redshifts (SOMPZ), Bayesian Photometric Redshifts (BPZ), and Directional-Neighbourhood Fitting (DNF) redshift estimates employed in the DES 3 × 2 point analyses. With detailed catalogue-level simulations of the DES 5-yr sample, we find that the simulated w can be recovered within ±0.02 when using SN+SOMPZ or DNF prior photo-z, smaller than the average statistical uncertainty for these samples of 0.03. With data, we obtain biases in w consistent with simulations within ~1σ for three of the five photo-z variants. We further evaluate how photo-z systematics interplay with photometric classification and find classification introduces a subdominant systematic component. This work lays the foundation for next-generation fully photometric SNe Ia cosmological analyses.

(cosmology:) dark energy↗
DOE OSTI2025

Conceptual study on using Doppler backscattering to measure magnetic pitch angle in tokamak plasmas

We introduce a new approach to measure the magnetic pitch angle profile in tokamak plasmas with Doppler backscattering (DBS), a technique traditionally used for measuring flows and density fluctuations. The DBS signal is maximised when its probe beam's wavevector is perpendicular to the magnetic field at the cutoff location, independent of the density fluctuations [Hillesheim \emph{et al} 2022 \emph{Nucl. Fusion} \textbf{55} 073024]. Hence, if one could isolate this effect, DBS would then yield information about the magnetic pitch angle. By varying the toroidal launch angle, the DBS beam reaches cutoff with different angles with respect to the magnetic field, but with other properties remaining similar. Hence, the toroidal launch angle which gives maximum backscattered power is thus that which is matched to the pitch angle at the cutoff location, enabling inference of the magnetic pitch angle. We performed systematic scans of the DBS toroidal launch angle for repeated DIII-D tokamak discharges. Experimental DBS data from this scan were analysed and combined with Gaussian beam-tracing simulations using the Scotty code [Hall-Chen \emph{et al} 2022 \emph{Plasma Phys. Control. Fusion} \textbf{64} 095002]. The pitch-angle inferred from DBS is consistent with that from magnetics-only and motional-Stark-effect-constrained (MSE) equilibrium reconstruction in the edge. In the core, the pitch angles from DBS and magnetics-only reconstructions differ by one to two degrees, while simultaneous MSE measurements were not available. The uncertainty in these measurements was under a degree; we show that this uncertainty is primarily due to the error in toroidal steering, the number of toroidally separated measurements, and shot-to-shot repeatability. We find that the error of pitch-angle measurements can be reduced by optimising the poloidal launch angle and initial beam properties. Since DBS has high spatial and temporal resolutions, is non-perturbative, does not require neutral beams, and is likely robust to neutron damage of and debris on the first mirrors, using DBS to measure the pitch angle in future fusion energy systems is especially appealing.

beam tracing↗
DOE OSTI2025

Theoretical and methodological challenges in hierarchical Bayesian inference for model-form uncertainty

This report describes challenges associated with the hierarchical Bayesian approach to inform model-form uncertainty (MFU) representations, which are parameterized modifications to a mathematical models’ governing equations to express uncertainty in form of the equations. To inform model-form uncertainties, hierarchical Bayesian inference is often employed. Here, the MFU parameters are distributed parametrically, and the hyperparameters of the parametric distribution are informed through Bayesian inference, with the aim of determining the MFU parameter distribution that best agrees with calibration data. In practice, however, we have found the hierarchical Bayesian approach falls short of this aim. We discuss theoretical and methodological challenges of the approach, and we present several numerical demonstrations of these challenges. To conclude, we suggest promising alternative approaches for future investigation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Impact of Color Space and Color Resolution on Vehicle Recognition Models

In this study, we analyze both linear and nonlinear color mappings by training on versions of a curated dataset collected in a controlled campus environment. We experiment with color space and color resolution to assess model performance in vehicle recognition tasks. Color encodings can be designed in principle to highlight certain vehicle characteristics or compensate for lighting differences when assessing potential matches to previously encountered objects. The dataset used in this work includes imagery gathered under diverse environmental conditions, including daytime and nighttime lighting. Experimental results inform expectations for possible improvements with automatic color space selection through feature learning. Moreover, we find there is only a gradual decrease in model performance with degraded color resolution, which suggests the need for simplified data collection and processing. By focusing on the most critical features, we could see improved model generalization and robustness, as the model becomes less prone to overfitting to noise or irrelevant details in the data. Such a reduction in resolution will lower computational complexity, leading to quicker training and inference times.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Selective Amnesia using Contrastive Subnet Erasure for Class Level Unlearning in Vision Models

We study concept-level forgetting in pretrained vision models: removing an entire semantic category so the system no longer recognizes that object in unseen images and contexts, rather than merely forgetting specific training examples. Prior work either applies blunt global projections or fine-tunes parameters, which can introduce collateral damage to unrelated features, add compute, and become unstable as forgetting strength increases. We introduce Contrastive Subnet Erasure (CSE), a training-free, encoder-centric edit that targets a compact set of channels most responsible for the class and attenuates them in a calibrated manner. The modification is algebraically folded into the subsequent layer, yielding no inference-time overhead and leaving task heads unchanged. To evaluate whether forgetting generalizes beyond the data used to specify the class, we introduce a cross dataset protocol in which the class is defined on a source dataset and performance is measured on a disjoint target dataset drawn from a different distribution with no shared images. This setup tests whether the model still fails to recognize the object when it looks different or appears in new scenes, and it helps avoid overfitting to patterns in the source dataset. Across CIFAR 10, CIFAR 100, and ImageNet under this protocol, CSE achieves stronger forgetting of the target class while better preserving non target utility than existing baselines in both single class and multi class settings. Overall, CSE provides a simple, stable, and deployment-ready mechanism for class-level unlearning in vision.

Kotevska, Olivera [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000316772243)↗
DOE OSTI2026

The Extent of Solar Energetic Particle Irradiation in the Sun’s Protoplanetary Disk

Solar flares emit X-rays and high-energy (MeV to GeV) ions called solar energetic particles (SEPs). Astronomical observations show solar-mass protostellar fluxes are a factor Φ ≈ 3 × 10 2 –3 × 10 3 times higher than the present-day Sun. Constraining Φ in the early solar system is important for modeling ionization in the Sun’s protoplanetary disk, the extent of magnetorotational instability or magnetocentrifugal outflows, or even production of short-lived radionuclides. Recent interpretations of meteoritic data—including cosmogenic Ne in hibonite grains, initial ( 10 Be/ 9 Be) 0 ratios in Ca-rich, Al-rich inclusions (CAIs), or even inferences of live 7 Be in CAIs—suggest values Φ > 10 5 , reaching as high as Φ ≈ 6 × 10 6 , which would make the young Sun extraordinarily active, even for a protostar. We constrain Φ by reexamining these data. We conclude that cosmogenic Ne was produced in hibonite grains as they resided in the disk; 36 Cl was created in Cl-poor grains after the disk dissipated; 10 Be was inherited from the molecular cloud, with almost no (<1%) 10 Be created in the disk; and there is no evidence whatsoever for any live 7 Be in CAIs. We show these data are consistent with a value Φ ≈ 3 × 10 3 for the first >5 Myr of the solar nebula. The early Sun evidently emitted a flux of X-rays and SEPs not atypical for a protostar.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Isospin dependence of the nuclear EMC effect from a global QCD analysis

We perform a new global QCD analysis of unpolarized parton distribution functions (PDFs) in the nucleon from proton, deuteron, and A = 3 data, including recent measurements of He 3 / D and H 3 / D cross section ratios from the MARATHON experiment at Jefferson Lab. Simultaneously inferring the PDFs and nucleon off-shell corrections allows both to be determined consistently, without theoretical assumptions about the isospin dependence of nuclear effects. The analysis provides strong evidence for the need of nucleon off-shell corrections to describe the A = 3 data, with large isoscalar and a suggestion of nonzero isovector contributions in A ≤ 3 nuclei. We find that the extracted EMC ratios of nuclear to nucleon structure functions for A = 2 and 3 differ from those naively extrapolated from heavy nuclei down to low A .

Cocuzza, C. [William & Mary] (ORCID:00000003492292↗
DOE OSTI2026

Bayesian Physics Informed Spatio-Temporal Network for Streamflow Data Imputation

Reliable reconstruction of incomplete streamflow records is critical for improving hydrological forecasting, flood preparedness, and water resource management. However, large observational gaps and uncertainties in governing physical parameters limit the accuracy of traditional statistical and machinelearning imputation frameworks. To address these challenges, we develop a Bayesian Physics-Informed Spatio-Temporal Network (BPI-STNet) that jointly captures spatial and temporal dependencies while enforcing hydrologic consistency through embedded physical constraints. The framework integrates a GraphSAGE-LSTM architecture to model spatial connectivity across gauges and temporal flow dynamics, coupled with a Bayesian update mechanism to estimate uncertain parameters in a simplified water-balance framework. Unlike conventional physics-informed networks that rely on sampling-based posterior estimation, BPI-STNet derives an analytic solution to the inverse problem, allowing closed-form Bayesian updates of uncertain parameters Λ={α,β,k} using Gaussian priors and likelihoods. Applied to daily observations from the Susquehanna River Basin (1980-2022), BPI-STNet achieves substantial improvements over a purely data-driven RGNN baseline, which reduced RMSE by 23 % and MAE by 9 %, and achieving an average NSE values up to 0.96. The results demonstrate that coupling Bayesian inference with physics-informed learning yields physically consistent, uncertainty-aware reconstructions that preserve the temporal persistence and statistical distribution of observed flows. The proposed framework establishes a generalizable paradigm for data-sparse hydrologic systems where both data fidelity and physical interpretability are essential.

Krishnan Kutty Ambika, Anukesh [ORNL] (ORCID:00000↗
DOE OSTI2026

Enabling probabilistic learning on manifolds through double diffusion maps

Here, we present a generative learning framework for probabilistic sampling that extends Probabilistic Learning on Manifolds (PLoM), which is designed to generate statistically consistent realizations of a random vector in a finite-dimensional Euclidean space, informed by a (representative) set of observations. In its original form, PLoM constructs a reduced-order probabilistic model by combining three main components: (a) kernel density estimation to approximate the underlying probability measure, (b) Diffusion Maps to characterize the manifold of the data, and (c) a reduced-order Itô Stochastic Differential Equation (ISDE) to sample from the learned distribution. However, its sampling dynamics are posed in the ambient space and the retained number of reduced coordinates is chosen by projection-reconstruction error. In practice, this often (i) requires more coordinates than the data’s intrinsic dimension to achieve stable sampling and (ii) lacks a smooth, basis-independent lifting back to the data domain; moreover, standard Diffusion Maps emphasize harmonic eigenfunctions and can miss non-harmonic latent structure. We address these limitations by decoupling geometry learning from sampling: a first Diffusion Maps pass identifies non-harmonic coordinates on which we formulate a full-order ISDE directly in the latent space, while Double Diffusion Maps captures multiscale geometric features and Geometric Harmonics (GH) learns a smooth lifting map to the ambient variables that is independent of the particular diffusion basis. This hybrid design preserves the system’s dynamical richness with a compact geometric representation and enables principled out-of-sample inference. The effectiveness and robustness of the proposed method are illustrated through two numerical studies: one based on data generated from two-dimensional Hermite polynomial functions and another based on high-fidelity simulations of a detonation wave in a reactive flow.

Double diffusion maps↗
DOE OSTI2026

Statistical inference of anomalous thermal transport with uncertainty quantification for interpretive 2D SOL models

The critical task of inferring anomalous cross-field transport coefficients is addressed in simulations of boundary plasmas with fluid models. A workflow for parameter inference in the UEDGE fluid code is developed using Bayesian optimization with parallelized sampling and integrated uncertainty quantification. In this workflow, transport coefficients are inferred by maximizing their posterior probability distribution, which is generally multidimensional and non-Gaussian. Uncertainty quantification is integrated throughout the optimization within the Bayesian framework that combines diagnostic uncertainties and model limitations. As a concrete example, we infer the anomalous electron thermal diffusivity $\chi_\perp$ from an interpretive 2D model describing electron heat transport in the conduction-limited region with radiative power loss. The workflow is first benchmarked against synthetic data and then tested on H-, L-, and I-mode discharges to match their midplane temperature and divertor heat flux profiles. We demonstrate that the workflow efficiently infers diffusivity and its associated uncertainty, generating 2D profiles that match 1D measurements. Future efforts will focus on incorporating more complicated fluid models and analyzing transport coefficients inferred from a large database of experimental results.

Bayesian optimization↗
DOE OSTI2025

Polymer Size–Catalytic Activity Relationships in Solution by Fluorescence Correlation Spectroscopy

Measuring the catalytic activity of specific sizes of polymers with active catalysts in solution is typically challenging, due to limited instrument detection sensitivity and/or dynamic range. Here, a fluorescence correlation spectroscopy (FCS) method is developed to determine the catalytic activity of living polymers of a specific apparent size in solution. Deviation from a single-component FCS data fitting, as assessed by χ2, is also introduced and developed as a “speciation index”—a method to evaluate and track changes in the relative amount of distinct polymer sizes with reaction progress. These methods are enabled by incorporating a selectively reactive fluorescent monomer into growing polydicyclopentadiene or polynorbornene during ring-opening metathesis polymerization (ROMP). Compared to polynorbornene, data showed that catalysts in aggregates of polyDCPD retained higher activity for longer—outcomes not directly inferable from simple diffusional-access predictions. Here, the ability to assign catalytic activity to polymers of specific sizes, and then to determine how this activity evolves with reaction progress, support long-term goals in the development and measurement of nano-objects that possess size-dependent catalytic activity.

Active catalyst↗
DOE OSTI2026

Enhanced accuracy through ensembling of randomly initialized auto-regressive models for dynamical systems

Computational mechanics simulations using traditional finite element methods (FEM) require prohibitively expensive computational resources for real-time engineering applications, design optimization, and digital twin implementations. While machine learning (ML) surrogate models offer significant computational speedups, autoregressive ML models for time-dependent mechanical systems suffer from error accumulation that compromises long-term prediction reliability - a critical concern for engineering applications where accuracy over extended time horizons is essential for safety and performance assessments. Here, we propose a deep ensemble framework specifically designed to address this challenge in computational mechanics applications, where multiple ML surrogate models with random weight initializations are trained in parallel and their predictions aggregated during inference. This approach leverages statistical diversity to maximize information gain from a fixed set of training data and to mitigate error propagation, while maintaining the computational efficiency that makes ML surrogates attractive for engineering practice. We validate the framework on three representative problems spanning critical areas of computational mechanics: stress field evolution in heterogeneous microstructures under complex loading (relevant to advanced materials design and composite analysis), planetary-scale shallow water dynamics (applicable to environmental and geotechnical engineering), and Gray-Scott reaction-diffusion systems (relevant to mass transport and chemical process engineering). Across all test cases, the ensemble approach demonstrates consistent error reduction of 15-33% compared to individual models. The codes for this work are available on GitHub (https://github.com/Graham-Brady-Research-Group/AutoregressiveEnsemble_SpatioTemporal_Evolution).

autoregressive prediction↗
DOE OSTI2025

Emulator-based Bayesian calibration of a subglacial drainage model

Subglacial drainage models, often motivated by the relationship between hydrology and ice flow, sensitively depend on numerous unconstrained parameters. We explore using borehole water-pressure time series to calibrate the uncertain parameters of a popular subglacial drainage model, taking a Bayesian perspective to quantify the uncertainty in parameter estimates and in the calibrated model predictions. To reduce the computation time associated with Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling, we construct a fast Gaussian process emulator to stand in for the subglacial drainage model. We first carry out a calibration experiment using synthetic observations consisting of model simulations with hidden parameter values as a demonstration of the method. Using real borehole water pressures measured in western Greenland, we find meaningful constraints on four of the eight model parameters and a factor-of-three reduction in uncertainty of the calibrated model predictions. These experiments illustrate Gaussian process-based Bayesian inference as a useful tool for calibration and uncertainty quantification of complex glaciological models using field data. However, significant differences between the calibrated model and the borehole data suggest that structural limitations of the model, rather than poorly constrained parameters or computational cost, remain the most important constraint on subglacial drainage modelling.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Bayesian Optimization of Catalysis with In-Context Learning

Large language models (LLMs) can perform accurate classification with zero or few examples through in-context learning (ICL), allowing the model to observe query-relevant examples at inference time and eliminating the need for additional weight updates to generalize beyond its original training data. We extend this capability to regression with uncertainty estimation using frozen LLMs (e.g., GPT-4o, Gemini), enabling Bayesian optimization (BO) in natural language without explicit model training or feature engineering. We apply this to materials discovery by representing materials as synthesis and testing procedures for use in natural language prompts. This Bayesian, design-first approach prioritizes optimization toward target material properties before detailed characterization, in contrast to conventional experimental workflows that often emphasize characterization of suboptimal materials. On benchmarks like aqueous solubility and oxidative coupling of methane (OCM), BO-ICL matches or outperforms Gaussian processes. In live experiments on the reverse water–gas shift (RWGS) reaction, BO-ICL identifies multimetallic catalysts that approach equilibrium CO yield within 6 and 10 iterations from a pool of 3,700 and 360,000 candidates, respectively. Our method redefines materials representation and accelerates discovery, with broad applications across catalysis, materials science, and AI.

Calibration↗