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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 343 records · Page 19
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1993

The laboratory spectrum of acetaldehyde at 1 millimeter (230-325 GHz)

The rotational spectrum of acetaldehyde (CH3CHO) in the frequency range 230-325 GHz has been measured in the laboratory using millimeter/submillimeter direct absorption spectroscopy. Over 250 transition frequencies are presented for this molecule for both A and E symmetry species in its ground (upsilon(sub t) = 0) and first excited (upsilon(sub t) = 1) torsional state, with experimental uncertainties of +/- 50 kHz. The data were fitted with a model involving an internal rotation potential function, which typically reproduces the measured frequencies to nu(sub obs) - nu(sub calc) less than or approximately 50 kHz for both ground and upsilon(sub t) = 1 state. These newly measured rest frequencies should aid in the identification of interstellar CH3CHO and in spectral line assignments for millimeter-band scans.

Barclay, W. L., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Frost Growth and Densification in Laminar Flow Over Flat Surfaces

One-dimensional frost growth and densification in laminar flow over flat surfaces has been theoretically investigated. Improved representations of frost density and effective thermal conductivity applicable to a wide range of frost circumstances have been incorporated. The validity of the proposed model considering heat and mass diffusion in the frost layer is tested by a comparison of the predictions with data from various investigators for frost parameters including frost thickness, frost surface temperature, frost density and heat flux. The test conditions cover a range of wall temperature, air humidity ratio, air velocity, and air temperature, and the effect of these variables on the frost parameters has been exemplified. Satisfactory agreement is achieved between the model predictions and the various test data considered. The prevailing uncertainties concerning the role air velocity and air temperature on frost development have been elucidated. It is concluded that that for flat surfaces increases in air velocity have no appreciable effect on frost thickness but contribute to significant frost densification, while increase in air temperatures results in a slight increase the frost thickness and appreciable frost densification.

Kandula, Max↗
NASA NTRS2020

Mapping tall shrub biomass in Alaska at landscape scale using structure-from-motion photogrammetry and lidar

Warming in arctic and boreal regions is increasing shrub cover and biomass. In southcentral Alaska, willow (Salix spp.) and alder (Alnus spp.) shrubs grow taller than many tree species and account for a substantial proportion of aboveground biomass, yet they are not individually measured as part of the operational Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) Program. The goal of this research was to test methods for landscape-scale mapping of tall shrub biomass in upper montane and subalpine environments using FIA-type plot measurements (n = 51) and predictor variables from imagery-based structure-from-motion (SfM) and airborne lidar. Specifically, we compared biomass models constructed from imagery acquired by unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV; ~1.7 cm pixels), imagery from the NASA Goddard's Lidar, Hyperspectral, and Thermal Airborne Imager (G-LiHT; ~3.1 cm pixels), and concomitant G-LiHT small-footprint lidar. Tall shrub biomass was most accurately predicted at 5 m resolution (R^2 = 0.81, RMSE = 1.09 kg/sq. m) using G-LiHT SfM color and structure variables. Lidar-only models had lower precision (R^2 = 0.74, RMSE = 1.26 kg/sq. m), possibly due to reduced model information content from variable multicollinearity or lower data density. Separate models for upper montane zones with trees and shrubs and subalpine zones with only shrubs were always chosen over single models based on minimization of Akaike's Information Criterion, indicating the need for variable sets robust to overhanging tree canopy. Decreasing point density from UAV (5000–8000 pts./sq. m) to the G-LiHT SfM point cloud (500–2000 pts./sq. m) had little impact on model fit, suggesting that high-resolution airborne imagery can extend SfM approaches well beyond line-of-sight restrictions for UAV platforms. Overall, our results confirmed that SfM from high-resolution imagery is a viable approach to estimate shrub biomass in the boreal region, especially when an existing lidar terrain model and local field calibration data are available to quantify uncertainty in the SfM point cloud and landscape-scale estimates of shrub biomass.

Michael Alonzo↗
NASA NTRS2006

Uncertainty Analysis for a Jet Flap Airfoil

An analysis of variance (ANOVA) study was performed to quantify the potential uncertainties of lift and pitching moment coefficient calculations from a computational fluid dynamics code, relative to an experiment, for a jet flap airfoil configuration. Uncertainties due to a number of factors including grid density, angle of attack and jet flap blowing coefficient were examined. The ANOVA software produced a numerical model of the input coefficient data, as functions of the selected factors, to a user-specified order (linear, 2-factor interference, quadratic, or cubic). Residuals between the model and actual data were also produced at each of the input conditions, and uncertainty confidence intervals (in the form of Least Significant Differences or LSD) for experimental, computational, and combined experimental / computational data sets were computed. The LSD bars indicate the smallest resolvable differences in the functional values (lift or pitching moment coefficient) attributable solely to changes in independent variable, given just the input data points from selected data sets. The software also provided a collection of diagnostics which evaluate the suitability of the input data set for use within the ANOVA process, and which examine the behavior of the resultant data, possibly suggesting transformations which should be applied to the data to reduce the LSD. The results illustrate some of the key features of, and results from, the uncertainty analysis studies, including the use of both numerical (continuous) and categorical (discrete) factors, the effects of the number and range of the input data points, and the effects of the number of factors considered simultaneously.

Green, Lawrence L.↗
NASA NTRS2022

NASA Engineering and Safety Center Technical Bulletin No. 22-04: Uncertainty Quantification of Reduced Order Structural Dynamic Models

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) provides statistical bounds on prediction accuracy based on finite element model (FEM) uncertainty. An alternate method for UQ, called the Hybrid Parametric Variation (HPV) combines a parametric variation of the Hurty/Craig-Bampton (HCB) fixed-interface (FI) modal frequencies with a nonparametric variation (NPV) method. This provides a UQ method that can be traced to test data, which can be updated as additional data and improved correlated models become available.

Uncertainty Quantification↗
NASA NTRS2010

Finite Element Model Calibration Approach for Ares I-X

Ares I-X is a pathfinder vehicle concept under development by NASA to demonstrate a new class of launch vehicles. Although this vehicle is essentially a shell of what the Ares I vehicle will be, efforts are underway to model and calibrate the analytical models before its maiden flight. Work reported in this document will summarize the model calibration approach used including uncertainty quantification of vehicle responses and the use of nonconventional boundary conditions during component testing. Since finite element modeling is the primary modeling tool, the calibration process uses these models, often developed by different groups, to assess model deficiencies and to update parameters to reconcile test with predictions. Data for two major component tests and the flight vehicle are presented along with the calibration results. For calibration, sensitivity analysis is conducted using Analysis of Variance (ANOVA). To reduce the computational burden associated with ANOVA calculations, response surface models are used in lieu of computationally intensive finite element solutions. From the sensitivity studies, parameter importance is assessed as a function of frequency. In addition, the work presents an approach to evaluate the probability that a parameter set exists to reconcile test with analysis. Comparisons of pre-test predictions of frequency response uncertainty bounds with measured data, results from the variance-based sensitivity analysis, and results from component test models with calibrated boundary stiffness models are all presented.

Horta, Lucas G.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Finite Element Model Calibration Approach for Area I-X

Ares I-X is a pathfinder vehicle concept under development by NASA to demonstrate a new class of launch vehicles. Although this vehicle is essentially a shell of what the Ares I vehicle will be, efforts are underway to model and calibrate the analytical models before its maiden flight. Work reported in this document will summarize the model calibration approach used including uncertainty quantification of vehicle responses and the use of non-conventional boundary conditions during component testing. Since finite element modeling is the primary modeling tool, the calibration process uses these models, often developed by different groups, to assess model deficiencies and to update parameters to reconcile test with predictions. Data for two major component tests and the flight vehicle are presented along with the calibration results. For calibration, sensitivity analysis is conducted using Analysis of Variance (ANOVA). To reduce the computational burden associated with ANOVA calculations, response surface models are used in lieu of computationally intensive finite element solutions. From the sensitivity studies, parameter importance is assessed as a function of frequency. In addition, the work presents an approach to evaluate the probability that a parameter set exists to reconcile test with analysis. Comparisons of pretest predictions of frequency response uncertainty bounds with measured data, results from the variance-based sensitivity analysis, and results from component test models with calibrated boundary stiffness models are all presented.

Horta, Lucas G.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Uncertainty Quantification for JPL Retrievals

We define the notions of verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification (VVUQ), and place them in the context of retrievals of Earth science data. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is the process of characterizing the uncertainty of a measurement system relative to the true, physical quantity it measures. UQ is needed when measurements are used for scientific inference, assimilated into models with other data, and used for decision-making and risk analysis. Many measurements come with measures of standard error and bias, but these uncertainty measures are often inaccurate, due to the operational need to assume crisp values for parameters which are in fact uncertain, as well as the failure of technical assumptions needed by operational error-estimation approaches. UQ provides a way to study which assumptions fail to hold, and a tool to improve the measurement. We describe a particular, broadly-applicable UQ setup that has been successful for JPL retrievals including OCO-2, and provide recommendations for furthering the UQ state of the practice at JPL.

Turmon, Michael↗
NASA NTRS2016

National Climate Assessment - Land Data Assimilation System (NCA-LDAS) Data at NASA GES DISC

As part of NASA's active participation in the Interagency National Climate Assessment (NCA) program, the Goddard Space Flight Center's Hydrological Sciences Laboratory (HSL) is supporting an Integrated Terrestrial Water Analysis, by using NASA's Land Information System (LIS) and Land Data Assimilation System (LDAS) capabilities. To maximize the benefit of the NCA-LDAS, on completion of planned model runs and uncertainty analysis, NASA will provide open access to all NCA-LDAS components, including input data, output fields, and indicator data, to other NCA-teams and the general public. The NCA-LDAS data will be archived at the NASA GES DISC (Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center) and can be accessed via direct ftp, THREDDS, Mirador search and download, and Giovanni visualization and analysis system.

land surface↗
NASA NTRS1989

An improved error assessment for the GEM-T1 gravitational model

Several tests were designed to determine the correct error variances for the GEM-T1 gravitational solution which was derived exclusively from satellite tracking data. The basic method employs both wholly independent and dependent subset data solutions and produces a full field coefficient by coefficient estimate of the model uncertainties. The GEM-T1 errors were further analyzed using a method based upon eigenvalue-eigenvector analysis which calibrates the entire covariance matrix. Dependent satellite and independent altimetric and surface gravity data sets, as well as independent satellite deep resonance information, confirm essentially the same error assessment.

Lerch, F. J.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Approach for Propagating Radiometric Data Uncertainties Through NASA Ocean Color Algorithms

Spectroradiometric satellite observations of the ocean are commonly referred to as “ocean color” remote sensing. NASA has continuously collected, processed, and distributed ocean color datasets since the launch of the Sea-viewing Wide-field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) in 1997. While numerous ocean color algorithms have been developed in the past two decades that derive geophysical data products from sensor-observed radiometry, few papers have clearly demonstrated how to estimate measurement uncertainty in derived data products. As the uptake of ocean color data products continues to grow with the launch of new and advanced sensors, it is critical that pixel-by-pixel data product uncertainties are estimated during routine data processing. Knowledge of uncertainties can be used when studying long-term climate records, or to assist in the development and performance appraisal of bio-optical algorithms. In this method paper we provide a comprehensive overview of how to formulate first-order first-moment (FOFM) calculus for propagating radiometric uncertainties through a selection of bio-optical models. We demonstrate FOFM uncertainty formulations for the following NASA ocean color data products: chlorophyll-a pigment concentration (Chl), the diffuse attenuation coefficient at 490 nm (K(sub d,490)), particulate organic carbon (POC), normalized fluorescent line height (nflh), and inherent optical properties (IOPs). Using a quality-controlled in situ hyperspectral remote sensing reflectance (R(sub rs,i)) dataset, we show how computationally inexpensive, yet algebraically complex, FOFM calculations may be evaluated for correctness using the more computationally expensive Monte Carlo approach. We compare bio-optical product uncertainties derived using our test R(sub rs) dataset assuming spectrally-flat, uncorrelated relative uncertainties of 1, 5, and 10%. We also consider spectrally dependent, uncorrelated relative uncertainties in R(sub rs). The importance of considering spectral covariances in R(sub rs), where practicable, in the FOFM methodology is highlighted with an example SeaWiFS image. We also present a brief case study of two POC algorithms to illustrate how FOFM formulations may be used to construct measurement uncertainty budgets for ecologically-relevant data products. Such knowledge, even if rudimentary, may provide useful information to end-users when selecting data products or when developing their own algorithms.

Bio-optics↗
NASA NTRS2017

Data Assimilation and Uncertainties in Early Solar Cycle Predictions

Stochastic nature of solar activity variations together with our limited knowledge of the dynamo mechanism and subsurface dynamics causes uncertainty in predictions of the solar cycle. For improving the physics-­‐based predictions we can take advantage of the mathematical data assimilation approach that allows us to take into account both, observational errors and model uncertainties, and provide estimates of the next solar cycle along with prediction uncertainties. In this study we use the Parker's migratory dynamo model together with the equation of magnetic helicity balance, which reproduces main properties of the sunspot cycles and allow us to minimize discrepancies between the observed global activity variations and the model solution. The test simulation runs show that a reliable prediction can be obtained for two phases of preceding solar cycle: 1) if the polar field reversals shortly after the solar maxima (strong toroidal field and weak poloidal field), and 2) during the solar minima (strongest poloidal and weak toroidal fields). The early estimate of Cycle 25 obtained by this method shows that this cycle will start in 2019 – 2020, reach the maximum in 2023 – 2024, and that the mean sunspot number at the maximum will be about 90 (for the v2.0 sunspot number series).

Data Assimilation↗
NASA NTRS2020

Uncertainty Quantification of Global Net Methane Emissions From Terrestrial Ecosystems Using a Mechanistically Based Biogeochemistry Model

Quantification of methane (CH4) emissions from wetlands and its sinks from uplands is still fraught with large uncertainties. Here, a methane biogeochemistry model was revised, parameterized, and verified for various wetland ecosystems across the globe. The model was then extrapolated to the global scale to quantify the uncertainty induced from four different types of uncertainty sources including parameterization, wetland type distribution, wetland area distribution, and meteorological input. We found that global wetland emissions are 212 ± 62 and 212 ± 32 Tg CH4 year−1 (1Tg = 1012 g) due to uncertain parameters and wetland type distribution, respectively, during 2000–2012. Using two wetland distribution data sets and three sets of climate data, the model simulations indicated that the global wetland emissions range from 186 to 212 CH4 year−1 for the same period. The parameters were the most significant uncertainty source. After combining the global methane consumption in the range of −34 to −46 Tg CH4 year−1, we estimated that the global net land methane emissions are 149–176 Tg CH4 year−1 due to uncertain wetland distribution and meteorological input. Spatially, the northeast United States and Amazon were two hotspots of methane emission, while consumption hotspots were in the Eastern United States and eastern China. During 1950–2016, both wetland emissions and upland consumption increased during El Niño events and decreased during La Niña events. This study highlights the need for more in situ methane flux data, more accurate wetland type, and area distribution information to better constrain the model uncertainty.

wetland methane emission↗
NASA NTRS1998

A Worst-Case Approach for On-Line Flutter Prediction

Worst-case flutter margins may be computed for a linear model with respect to a set of uncertainty operators using the structured singular value. This paper considers an on-line implementation to compute these robust margins in a flight test program. Uncertainty descriptions are updated at test points to account for unmodeled time-varying dynamics of the airplane by ensuring the robust model is not invalidated by measured flight data. Robust margins computed with respect to this uncertainty remain conservative to the changing dynamics throughout the flight. A simulation clearly demonstrates this method can improve the efficiency of flight testing by accurately predicting the flutter margin to improve safety while reducing the necessary flight time.

Lind, Rick C.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Combination of TOPEX/POSEIDON Data with a Hydrographic Inversion for Determination of the Oceanic General Circulation and its Relation to Geoid Accuracy

A global estimate of the absolute oceanic general circulation from a geostrophic inversion of in situ hydrographic data is tested against and then combined with an estimate obtained from TOPEX/POSEIDON altimetric data and a geoid model computed using the JGM-3 gravity-field solution. Within the quantitative uncertainties of both the hydrographic inversion and the geoid estimate, the two estimates derived by very different methods are consistent. When the in situ inversion is combined with the altimetry/geoid scheme using a recursive inverse procedure, a new solution, fully consistent with both hydrography and altimetry, is found. There is, however, little reduction in the uncertainties of the calculated ocean circulation and its mass and heat fluxes because the best available geoid estimate remains noisy relative to the purely oceanographic inferences. The conclusion drawn from this is that the comparatively large errors present in the existing geoid models now limit the ability of satellite altimeter data to improve directly the general ocean circulation models derived from in situ measurements. Because improvements in the geoid could be realized through a dedicated spaceborne gravity recovery mission, the impact of hypothetical much better, future geoid estimates on the circulation uncertainty is also quantified, showing significant hypothetical reductions in the uncertainties of oceanic transport calculations. Full ocean general circulation models could better exploit both existing oceanographic data and future gravity-mission data, but their present use is severely limited by the inability to quantify their error budgets.

Ganachaud, Alexandre↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

AeroFusion: Data Fusion and Uncertainty Quantification for Entry Vehicles

AeroFusion is a NASA Langley initiative to incorporate advances in data science into the aerodynamic modeling process to improve efficiency. The effort can largely be categorized in three components: reduced-order modeling techniques, surrogate modeling techniques, and uncertainty quantification. By combining various methods from these categories, AeroFusion aims to reduce the development cost of aerodynamic models, both in terms of time and money.

Steven Snyder↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

AeroFusion: Data Fusion and Uncertainty Quantification for Entry Vehicles

AeroFusion is a NASA Langley initiative to incorporate advances in data science into the aerodynamic modeling process to improve efficiency. The effort can largely be categorized in three components: reduced-order modeling techniques, surrogate modeling techniques, and uncertainty quantification. By combining various methods from these categories, AeroFusion aims to reduce the development cost of aerodynamic models, both in terms of time and money.

Steven Snyder↗
NASA NTRS2010

Aerosol Mapping From Space: Strengths, Limitations, and Applications

The aerosol data products from the NASA Earth Observing System's MISR and MODIS instruments provide significant advances in regional and global aerosol optical depth (AOD) mapping, aerosol type measurement, and source plume characterization from space. These products have been and are being used for many applications, ranging from regional air quality assessment, to aerosol air mass type identification and evolution, to wildfire smoke injection height and aerosol transport model validation. However, retrieval uncertainties and coverage gaps still limit the quantitative constraints these satellite data place on some important questions, such as global-scale long-term trends and direct aerosol radiative forcing. Major advances in these areas seem to require a different paradigm, involving the integration of satellite with suborbital data and with models. This presentation will briefly summarize where we stand, and what incremental improvements we can expect, with the current MISR and MODIS aerosol products, and will then elaborate on some initial steps aimed at the necessary integration of satellite data with data from other sources and with chemical transport models.

Kahn, Ralph↗