Results for “Data-driven” — Page 19

NASA NTRS2025

Gaussian Process for Flight Delay Prediction: Learning a Stochastic Process

This paper presents a machine-learning approach to predict flight delays. Whereas neural networks are extensively studied for predictive capabilities, they involve non-intuitive design and extensive analysis, particularly in training and optimization processes. Instead, the proposed framework employs Gaussian Processes as a supervised learning technique for flight delay prediction. This data-driven approach trains the model using prior information, specifically the mean and covariance tied to existing data. The proposed Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) model employs the day of flight as a pivotal feature for delay forecasting. We analyze flights from various routes and gauge the accuracy of the presented learning technique by comparing the predicted delays with the actual ones. Given the inherent challenges in precisely forecasting delays, we predict the delays with a 95 % confidence interval. Also, an error propagation analysis in the prediction horizon is carried out to determine the optimal time frame for prediction. The proposed method for flight delay prediction is important as airlines can strategize flight operations and issue timely advisories.

stochastic↗

NASA NTRS2024

Sensor Fault Detection in Smart Extraterrestrial Habitats Using Unsupervised Learning

Various types of sensors are needed to monitor the health state of smart deep-space habitats. However, measured data can be affected by sensor faults, which influence the health management system and consequently the decision-making. In this paper, an unsupervised learning approach based on convolutional autoencoders (CAEs) is developed to detect anomalies in temperature and pressure sensors. The proposed method is systematically investigated using a habitat simulator (HabSim). Several illustrative examples are demonstrated in the nominal and hazardous states of the habitat, including micrometeorite impact and fire scenarios. The performance of the proposed method using CAEs is compared with that of existing methods using auto-associative neural networks (AANNs) and variational autoencoders. This comparison is based on typical evaluation metrics, including precision, recall, F1 score, training time, and testing time. The effect of temperature–pressure coupling on the detection performance of CAEs and AANNs is explored by training different data-driven models, including one with temperature sensors, one with pressure sensors, and one with both temperature and pressure sensors. The effect of the number of faulty sensors on the performance of CAEs is studied, as with an increase in the number of faulty sensors, redundant information among the sensors is reduced. The capability of CAEs to change the number of sensors without redesigning the network architecture and retraining the neural network is investigated and demonstrated. The capabilities and limitations of the proposed solution are discussed.

Zixin Wang↗

NASA NTRS2026

Benchmarking Bayesian Optimization Frameworks and Acquisition Strategies for Materials Discovery and Autonomous Laboratories

Bayesian optimization (BO) can accelerate materials discovery by guiding expensive experiments toward the most promising processing conditions. We systematically compare five BO surrogate and framework combinations (Gaussian processes in Ax, Gaussian processes and Monte-Carlo neural networks in BayBE, random forests in Lolopy, and tree-structured Parzen (TPE) estimators in Hyperopt) on three benchmarks that mimic common materials design tasks (a discrete solid-electrolyte composition space, a hybrid discrete/continuous laminate-composite design problem solved with micromechanics modeling, and the continuous Ishigami analytic function which is a standard optimization benchmark). Each BO surrogate is paired with posterior mean, probability of improvement, and expected improvement acquisition functions and run for 100 trials from randomized initial samples with uniform random search providing a control. Across five random seeds per setting, BayBE’s Gaussian-process surrogate with expected improvement consistently reached ≥95 % of the known optimum in the fewest evaluations, while Lolopy’s random forest matched or exceeded GP performance on purely categorical or mixed spaces at a higher computational cost. Posterior mean alone often stagnated at local optima, underscoring the need for exploration, whereas probability and expected improvement balanced exploration and exploitation leading to better optimization in fewer trials. Execution times ranged from milliseconds for TPE to minutes for neural-network and random-forest surrogates. These results establish baseline expectations for BO in automated materials laboratories and highlight expected improvement with Gaussian processes as a reliable first choice, with random forests offering a strong alternative when categorical variables dominate. The benchmark suite and code are released to facilitate future surrogate, acquisition, and constraint-handling research in data-driven materials optimization.

Bayesian optimization↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

BEAST: Expanding Sustainable Data Infrastructure for High-Enthalpy Facilities

Reproducible, data-driven thermal protection system (TPS) research requires that experimental records from high-enthalpy testing be consistently structured, traceable, and accessible across campaigns and institutions. In practice, however, arcjet and plasma facilities data remain largely fragmented: raw diagnostics are stored in ad hoc formats, material sample histories are disconnected from test conditions, and metadata standards are absent, precluding systematic cross-campaign analysis and long-term reuse. BEAST (Backend for Experiment Analysis, Storage, and Traceability) is an open-source, web-based platform that addresses these limitations by providing a unified, queryable infrastructure for high-enthalpy ground-test data [1]. First presented at the 15th Ablation Workshop [2], BEAST has since undergone significant development. The platform ingests and structures multi-channel time-series diagnostics, facility configurations, and material property records within a common provenance model, ensuring end-to-end traceability from raw sensor acquisition to reduced experimental quantities. A versioned material library links specimen identity and processing history to the specific runs in which each sample was tested. An integrated modeling workbench enables training and evaluation of regression models directly on archived experimental data, supporting condition interpolation and the construction of empirical material response databases. Beyond its original deployment at NASA Ames Research Center, BEAST has been designed to be facility-agnostic, with ongoing efforts to extend its adoption to other facilities. Its modular architecture accommodates heterogeneous diagnostic setups and facility types, and its future open-source distribution allows institutions to build on a common data standard rather than maintaining isolated, bespoke solutions. BEAST is further integrated within a broader ecosystem of companion tools: arcjetCV [3] extracts recession rates and shock standoff distances from high-speed video using computer vision, and miniSTARscan [4] provides sub-minute, portable photogrammetric surface reconstruction of test articles before and after exposure. All tools share a common data schema, enabling seamless ingestion of surface geometry, imagery, and time-series data into a single, coherent experimental record.

Database↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

BEAST: Expanding Sustainable Data Infrastructure for High-Enthalpy Facilities

Reproducible, data-driven thermal protection system (TPS) research requires that experimental records from high-enthalpy testing be consistently structured, traceable, and accessible across campaigns and institutions. In practice, however, arcjet and plasma facilities data remain largely fragmented: raw diagnostics are stored in ad hoc formats, material sample histories are disconnected from test conditions, and metadata standards are absent, precluding systematic cross-campaign analysis and long-term reuse. BEAST (Backend for Experiment Analysis, Storage, and Traceability) is an open-source, web-based platform that addresses these limitations by providing a unified, queryable infrastructure for high-enthalpy ground-test data [1]. First presented at the 15th Ablation Workshop [2], BEAST has since undergone significant development. The platform ingests and structures multi-channel time-series diagnostics, facility configurations, and material property records within a common provenance model, ensuring end-to-end traceability from raw sensor acquisition to reduced experimental quantities. A versioned material library links specimen identity and processing history to the specific runs in which each sample was tested. An integrated modeling workbench enables training and evaluation of regression models directly on archived experimental data, supporting condition interpolation and the construction of empirical material response databases. Beyond its original deployment at NASA Ames Research Center, BEAST has been designed to be facility-agnostic, with ongoing efforts to extend its adoption to other facilities. Its modular architecture accommodates heterogeneous diagnostic setups and facility types, and its future open-source distribution allows institutions to build on a common data standard rather than maintaining isolated, bespoke solutions. BEAST is further integrated within a broader ecosystem of companion tools: arcjetCV [3] extracts recession rates and shock standoff distances from high-speed video using computer vision, and miniSTARscan [4] provides sub-minute, portable photogrammetric surface reconstruction of test articles before and after exposure. All tools share a common data schema, enabling seamless ingestion of surface geometry, imagery, and time-series data into a single, coherent experimental record.

Database↗

NASA NTRS2012

The Role in the Virtual Astronomical Observatory in the Era of Massive Data Sets

The Virtual Observatory (VO) is realizing global electronic integration of astronomy data. One of the long-term goals of the U.S. VO project, the Virtual Astronomical Observatory (VAO), is development of services and protocols that respond to the growing size and complexity of astronomy data sets. This paper describes how VAO staff are active in such development efforts, especially in innovative strategies and techniques that recognize the limited operating budgets likely available to astronomers even as demand increases. The project has a program of professional outreach whereby new services and protocols are evaluated.

data-driven science↗

NASA NTRS2019

Formulative Input into Future NASA Aeronautics Planning

This presentation covers industry input received for future work in NASA Aeronautics over the next 5 years. It is intended to present areas of significant imput and to stimulate further discussion.

future aeronautics planning↗

NASA NTRS2020

Intelligent Contingency Management for Urban Air Mobility

The third aviation revolution is seeking to enable transportation where users have access to immediate and flexible air travel; the users dictate trip origin, destination and timing. One of the major components of this vision is urban air mobility (UAM) for the masses. UAM means a safe and efficient system for vehicles to move passengers and cargo within a city. In order to reach UAM’s full market potential the vehicle will have to be autonomous. One of the primary challenges of autonomous flight is dealing with off-nominal events, both common and unforeseen; thus, intelligent contingency management (ICM) is one of the enabling technologies. In this context, the vehicle has to be aware of its internal state and external environment at all times, ascertain its capability and make decisions about mission completion or modification. All of these functions require data to model and assess the environment and then take actions based on these models. Necessarily, there is uncertainty associated with the data and the models generated from it. Since we are dealing with safety-critical systems, one of the main challenges of ICM is to generate sufficient data and to minimize its uncertainty to enable practical and safe decision making. We propose an overall architecture that incorporates deterministic and learning algorithms together to assess vehicle capabilities, project these into the future and make decisions on mission management level. A layered approach allows for mature parts and technologies to be integrated into early highly automated vehicles before the final state of autonomy is reached.

data-driven systems↗