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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 343 records · Page 19
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NASA NTRS2012

Understanding Space Weather: The Sun as a Variable Star

The Sun is a complex system of systems and until recently, less than half of its surface was observable at any given time and then only from afar. New observational techniques and modeling capabilities are giving us a fresh perspective of the solar interior and how our Sun works as a variable star. This revolution in solar observations and modeling provides us with the exciting prospect of being able to use a vastly increased stream of solar data taken simultaneously from several different vantage points to produce more reliable and prompt space weather forecasts. Solar variations that cause identifiable space weather effects do not happen only on solar-cycle timescales from decades to centuries; there are also many shorter-term events that have their own unique space weather effects and a different set of challenges to understand and predict, such as flares, coronal mass ejections, and solar wind variations.

Sun: Corona↗
NASA NTRS2017

Developing a Robust, Interoperable GNSS Space Service Volume (SSV) for the Global Space User Community

For over two decades, researchers, space users, Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) service providers, and international policy makers have been working diligently to expand the space-borne use of the Global Positioning System (GPS) and, most recently, to employ the full complement of GNSS constellations to increase spacecraft navigation performance. Space-borne Positioning, Navigation, and Timing (PNT) applications employing GNSS are now ubiquitous in Low Earth Orbit (LEO). GNSS use in space is quickly expanding into the Space Service Volume (SSV), the signal environment in the volume surrounding the Earth that enables real-time PNT measurements from GNSS systems at altitudes of 3000 km and above. To support the current missions and planned future missions within the SSV, initiatives are being conducted in the United States and internationally to ensure that GNSS signals are available, robust, and yield precise navigation performance. These initiatives include the Interagency Forum for Operational Requirements (IFOR) effort in the United States, to support GPS SSV signal robustness through future design changes, and the United Nations-sponsored International Committee on GNSS (ICG), to coordinate SSV development across all international GNSS constellations and regional augmentations. The results of these efforts have already proven fruitful, enabling new missions through radically improved navigation and timing performance, ensuring quick recovery from trajectory maneuvers, improving space vehicle autonomy and making GNSS signals more resilient from potential disruptions. Missions in the SSV are operational now and have demonstrated outstanding PNT performance characteristics; much better than what was envisioned less than a decade ago. The recent launch of the first in a series of US weather satellites will employ the use of GNSS in the SSV to substantially improve weather prediction and public-safety situational awareness of fast moving events, including hurricanes, flash floods, severe storms, tornados and wildfires. Thus, the benefits of the GNSS expansion and use into the SSV are tremendous, resulting in orders of magnitude return in investment to national governments and extraordinary societal benefits, including lives saved and critical infrastructure and property protected. However, this outstanding success is tempered by dual challenges: that for GPS, the current SSV specifications do not adequately protect SSV future use; and that for GNSS, the capabilities that are currently available are not protected in the future by specifications.

Bauer, Frank H.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Developing a Robust, Interoperable GNSS Space Service Volume (SSV) for the Global Space User Community

For over two decades, researchers, space users, Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) service providers, and international policy makers have been working diligently to expand the space-borne use of the Global Positioning System (GPS) and, most recently, to employ the full complement of GNSS constellations to increase spacecraft navigation performance. Space-borne Positioning, Navigation, and Timing (PNT) applications employing GNSS are now ubiquitous in Low Earth Orbit (LEO). GNSS use in space is quickly expanding into the Space Service Volume (SSV), the signal environment in the volume surrounding the Earth that enables real-time PNT measurements from GNSS systems at altitudes of 3000 km and above. To support the current missions and planned future missions within the SSV, initiatives are being conducted in the United States and internationally to ensure that GNSS signals are available, robust, and yield precise navigation performance. These initiatives include the Interagency Forum for Operational Requirements (IFOR) effort in the United States, to support GPS SSV signal robustness through future design changes, and the United Nations-sponsored International Committee on GNSS (ICG), to coordinate SSV development across all international GNSS constellations and regional augmentations. The results of these efforts have already proven fruitful, enabling new missions through radically improved navigation and timing performance, ensuring quick recovery from trajectory maneuvers, improving space vehicle autonomy and making GNSS signals more resilient from potential disruptions. Missions in the SSV are operational now and have demonstrated outstanding PNT performance characteristics; much better than what was envisioned less than a decade ago. The recent launch of the first in a series of US weather satellites will employ the use of GNSS in the SSV to substantially improve weather prediction and public-safety situational awareness of fast moving events, including hurricanes, flash floods, severe storms, tornados and wildfires. Thus, the benefits of the GNSS expansion and use into the SSV are tremendous, resulting in orders of magnitude return in investment to national governments and extraordinary societal benefits, including lives saved and critical infrastructure and property protected. However, this outstanding success is tempered by dual challenges: that for GPS, the current SSV specifications do not adequately protect SSV future use; and that for GNSS, the capabilities that are currently available are not protected in the future by specifications.

Bauer, Frank H.↗
NASA NTRS2016

MLI Blanket Effective Emittance Variance and Its Effect on Spacecraft Propellant Line Thermal Control

Multi-Layer Insulation (MLI) blankets commonly employed for temperature control of spacecraft propellant lines consistently show large variances in their effective emittances. These variances are primarily due to workmanship, hence are hard to control or predict. Unfortunately, the variances are also the primary drivers of propellant line temperatures, thus leading to large predicted temperature uncertainties and increased risks to the success of space missions. JPL has gained significant knowledge of these variances from Mars spacecraft designs over more than two decades. This knowledge has led to improved analytical approaches to bound existing designs, emphasis on increased temperature visibility for design verification and model correlation, as well as methods for improving the robustness of propellant line thermal designs.

Miller, Jennifer R.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Low-Earth Orbit Flight Test of an Inflatable Decelerator (LOFTID) Aeroshell Performance

On November 10, 2022, NASA launched the Low-earth Orbit Flight Test of an Inflatable Decelerator (LOFTID) reentry vehicle (RV)as a secondary payload mounted inside the launch vehicle (LV) adaptor on an Atlas V 401 out of the Vandenburg Space Force Base (VSFB). The primary payload, Joint Polar Satellite System-2 (JPSS-2), was delivered successfully to a sun-synchronous trajectory shortly after launch, at which point the Centaur upper stage performed a burn to de-orbit the system. Once on the desired trajectory to enter the atmosphere, the top of the payload adaptor was ejected to expose the LOFTID RV. Next, the LOFTID aeroshell, a Hypersonic Inflatable Aerodynamic Decelerator (HIAD), was deployed and inflated without issue. The Centaur pointed the LOFTID RV to the desired attitude to enter the atmosphere, spun the assembly to three rpm, separated the LOFTID RV, and finally performed a divert maneuver to prevent the Centaur from re-contacting the LOFTID RV after atmospheric entry. The LOFTID RV maintained the design attitude and spin rate from separation to atmospheric entry, a duration of roughly 30 minutes, demonstrating the aeroshell did not experience any energy damping from inflatable structure flexibility. The LOFTID RV entered the atmosphere over Alaska at >8km/sec and decelerated as designed, demonstrating aerodynamically stable flight from hypersonic entry through subsonic parachute deployment. On-board visible-spectrum cameras captured the physical response of the heatshield through all phases of flight. Co-located infrared cameras captured the temperature distribution of the aftside of the heat shield anchored to a distribution of thermocouples on the inflatable structure (IS) in the field of view. Thermocouples were also embedded in the forward side of the aeroshell both in the Flexible Thermal Protection System (FTPS) as well as the IS. This paper will document aeroshell’s response to the atmospheric entry. The visible-spectrum cameras captured mechanical response of the deployable aeroshell to the loads encountered in the different phases of entry. Events seen on the visible-spectrum cameras correlate with the measurements of the load cell pins on webbing elements that attach the aeroshell to the centerbody structure. Thermocouple data captured verifies the aerothermal response of the aeroshell was in-kind with pre-flight analysis predictions although somewhat lower in most locations. This data will enable enhancement of HIAD predictive capability. Post-flight inspection of the aeroshell after splashdown and ocean recovery shows that all the aeroshell materials and manufacturing techniques developed over the past two decades of HIAD technology development performed as expected at large scale, a scale which cannot be replicated in ground test facilities. The LOFTID RV remained high in the water after touching down under parachute, and maintained buoyancy and integrity for the hour it took to position the recovery vessel near the vehicle after splashdown. There was no indication the HIAD would have experienced an issue maintaining buoyancy for many more hours after water impact as the component maintained adequate inflation pressure more than 24 hours after water extraction with no additional inflation gas in tanks, as the inflation gas remaining in the tank was purposely vented prior to splashdown.

HIAD↗
NASA NTRS2020

Toward More Realistic Simulation and Prediction of Dust Storms on Mars

Major (regional and global)dust storms dominate weather and climate variability on present-day Mars. Absorption and scattering of visible and IR radiation by dust strongly affect the thermal state of the thin Mars atmosphere, while dust provides condensation nuclei for water and CO2 cloud particles, which also affect radiative fluxes. Global dust storms (GDS) occur ~three times per Mars decade and to date have been observed in only northern fall and winter,when the global circulation is strongest. Tenfold increases in column dust opacity are typical during GDS, with intense vertical motions transporting dust to far higher altitudes than usual. The key processes and feedbacks that produce GDS remain poorly understood, hence current atmospheric models fail to self-consistently simulate observed dust storm activity. This means we have no predictive capability for when GDS may occur, either now or in Mars’s past. And crucially, due to the huge impact of GDS on the atmosphere and surface, our lack of ability to simulate realistic dust storms has major implications for Mars science and exploration: from understanding the present climate (§2.1),to modeling past climates and water cycles (§2.2), to exploring how wind, water, and dust cycles varied over time to interpret geology and assess potential habitability(§2.3), to quantifying and mitigating risks posed to Mars missions (§2.4)

Claire E Newman↗
NASA NTRS2004

Regional Assimilation of NASA Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) Data

The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPORT) Center seeks to accelerate the infusion of NASA Earth Science Enterprise (ESE) observations, data assimilation and modeling research into NW S forecast operations and decision-making. The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), is expected to advance climate research and weather prediction into the 21 st century. It is one of six instruments onboard Aqua, a satellite that is part of NASA s Earth Observing System. AIRS, along with two partner microwave sounding instruments, represents the most advanced atmospheric sounding system ever deployed in space. The system is capable of measuring the atmospheric temperature in the troposphere with radiosonde accuracies of 1 K over 1 km-thick layers under both clear and cloudy conditions, while the accuracy of the derived moisture profiles will exceed that obtained by radiosondes. It is imperative that the scientific community is prepared to take full advantage of next-generation satellite data that will become available within the next decade. The purpose of this paper is to describe a procedure designed to optimally assimilate AIRS data at high spatial resolution over both land and ocean. The assimilation system used in this study is the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) developed at the Forecast System Laboratory used extensively around the globe. Results will focus on quality control issues associated with AIRS, optimal assimilation strategies, and the impact of the AIRS data on subsequent numerical forecasts at 12 km produced by the next generation Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model.

Chou, Shih-Hung↗
NASA NTRS1990

Analyses of composite fuselage structure under various loading conditions

With the characteristics of high strength/weight and stiffness/weight ratios in advanced composite materials, composite plate structures have been successfully applied to secondary load-carrying structural components in the aerospace industry for the past two decades. Recently, filament wound composite shells are being considered for design of primary fuselage structures. To implement the design the structural response under various loading conditions needs to be predicted accurately. Therefore, it is essential to establish a rigorous analytical solution in the area of composite laminated shells. A closed form solution is presented that predicts the response of a composite shell subjected to internal pressure, axial tension, bending, and torsion. The material of the shell is assumed to be general cylindrically anisotropic. Based on the theory of cylindrical anisotropic elasticity coupled partial differential governing equations are developed using Lehknitskii's stress function approach. The general expressions for the stresses and displacements in the composite cylinders under these loading conditions is discussed. Three examples (45) off-axis unidirectional, (45/45) unsymmetric, and (45/45)(sub s) symmetric angle-ply fiber-reinforced laminated shells are shown to illustrate the effect of radius-to-thickness ratios, coupling, and stacking sequence.

Yuan, Fuh-Gwo↗
NASA NTRS2002

High-Efficiency High-Resolution Global Model Developments at the NASA Goddard Data Assimilation Office

The Data Assimilation Office (DAO) has been developing a new generation of ultra-high resolution General Circulation Model (GCM) that is suitable for 4-D data assimilation, numerical weather predictions, and climate simulations. These three applications have conflicting requirements. For 4-D data assimilation and weather predictions, it is highly desirable to run the model at the highest possible spatial resolution (e.g., 55 km or finer) so as to be able to resolve and predict socially and economically important weather phenomena such as tropical cyclones, hurricanes, and severe winter storms. For climate change applications, the model simulations need to be carried out for decades, if not centuries. To reduce uncertainty in climate change assessments, the next generation model would also need to be run at a fine enough spatial resolution that can at least marginally simulate the effects of intense tropical cyclones. Scientific problems (e.g., parameterization of subgrid scale moist processes) aside, all three areas of application require the model's computational performance to be dramatically improved as compared to the previous generation. In this talk, I will present the current and future developments of the "finite-volume dynamical core" at the Data Assimilation Office. This dynamical core applies modem monotonicity preserving algorithms and is genuinely conservative by construction, not by an ad hoc fixer. The "discretization" of the conservation laws is purely local, which is clearly advantageous for resolving sharp gradient flow features. In addition, the local nature of the finite-volume discretization also has a significant advantage on distributed memory parallel computers. Together with a unique vertically Lagrangian control volume discretization that essentially reduces the dimension of the computational problem from three to two, the finite-volume dynamical core is very efficient, particularly at high resolutions. I will also present the computational design of the dynamical core using a hybrid distributed-shared memory programming paradigm that is portable to virtually any of today's high-end parallel super-computing clusters.

Lin, Shian-Jiann↗
NASA NTRS2002

High-Efficiency High-Resolution Global Model Developments at the NASA Goddard Data Assimilation Office

The Data Assimilation Office (DAO) has been developing a new generation of ultra-high resolution General Circulation Model (GCM) that is suitable for 4-D data assimilation, numerical weather predictions, and climate simulations. These three applications have conflicting requirements. For 4-D data assimilation and weather predictions, it is highly desirable to run the model at the highest possible spatial resolution (e.g., 55 kin or finer) so as to be able to resolve and predict socially and economically important weather phenomena such as tropical cyclones, hurricanes, and severe winter storms. For climate change applications, the model simulations need to be carried out for decades, if not centuries. To reduce uncertainty in climate change assessments, the next generation model would also need to be run at a fine enough spatial resolution that can at least marginally simulate the effects of intense tropical cyclones. Scientific problems (e.g., parameterization of subgrid scale moist processes) aside, all three areas of application require the model's computational performance to be dramatically improved as compared to the previous generation. In this talk, I will present the current and future developments of the "finite-volume dynamical core" at the Data Assimilation Office. This dynamical core applies modem monotonicity preserving algorithms and is genuinely conservative by construction, not by an ad hoc fixer. The "discretization" of the conservation laws is purely local, which is clearly advantageous for resolving sharp gradient flow features. In addition, the local nature of the finite-volume discretization also has a significant advantage on distributed memory parallel computers. Together with a unique vertically Lagrangian control volume discretization that essentially reduces the dimension of the computational problem from three to two, the finite-volume dynamical core is very efficient, particularly at high resolutions. I will also present the computational design of the dynamical core using a hybrid distributed- shared memory programming paradigm that is portable to virtually any of today's high-end parallel super-computing clusters.

Lin, Shian-Jiann↗
NASA NTRS2010

Studies of 21st-Century Precipitation Trends Over West Africa

West Africa includes a semi-arid zone between the Sahara Desert and the humid Gulf of Guinea coast, approximately between 10 N and 20 N, which is irrigated by summer monsoon rains. This article refers to the region as the Sahel. Rain-fed agriculture is the primary sustenance for Sahel populations, and severe droughts (in the 1970s and 1980s), therefore, have devastating negative societal impacts. The future frequency of Sahel droughts and the evolution of its hydrological balance are therefore of great interest. The article reviews 10 recent research studies that attempt to discover how climate changes will affect the hydrology of the Sahel throughout the 21st century. All 10 studies rely on atmosphere ocean global climate model (AOGCM) simulations based on a range of greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Many of the simulations are contained in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change archives for Assessment Reports #3 and #4. Two of the studies use AOGCM data to drive regional climate models. Seven studies make projections for the first half of the 21st century and eight studies make projections for the second half. Some studies make projections of wetter conditions and some predict more frequent droughts, and each describes the atmospheric processes associated with its prediction. Only one study projects more frequent droughts before 2050, and that is only for continent-wide degradation in vegetation cover. The challenge to correctly simulate Sahel rainfall decadal trends is particularly daunting because multiple physical mechanisms compete to drive the trend upwards or downwards. A variety of model deficiencies, regarding the simulation of one or more of these physical processes, taints models climate change projections. Consequently, no consensus emerges regarding the impact of anticipated greenhouse gas forcing on the hydrology of the Sahel in the second half of the 21st century.

Druyan, Leonard M.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Architecture, Voltage, and Components for a Turboelectric Distributed Propulsion Electric Grid

The development of a wholly superconducting turboelectric distributed propulsion system presents unique opportunities for the aerospace industry. However, this transition from normally conducting systems to superconducting systems significantly increases the equipment complexity necessary to manage the electrical power systems. Due to the low technology readiness level (TRL) nature of all components and systems, current Turboelectric Distributed Propulsion (TeDP) technology developments are driven by an ambiguous set of system-level electrical integration standards for an airborne microgrid system (Figure 1). While multiple decades' worth of advancements are still required for concept realization, current system-level studies are necessary to focus the technology development, target specific technological shortcomings, and enable accurate prediction of concept feasibility and viability. An understanding of the performance sensitivity to operating voltages and an early definition of advantageous voltage regulation standards for unconventional airborne microgrids will allow for more accurate targeting of technology development. Propulsive power-rated microgrid systems necessitate the introduction of new aircraft distribution system voltage standards. All protection, distribution, control, power conversion, generation, and cryocooling equipment are affected by voltage regulation standards. Information on the desired operating voltage and voltage regulation is required to determine nominal and maximum currents for sizing distribution and fault isolation equipment, developing machine topologies and machine controls, and the physical attributes of all component shielding and insulation. Voltage impacts many components and system performance.

electric faults↗
NASA NTRS2019

Current Status of Shock Layer Radiation Studies for Planetary Probes

Radiative heating by the shock layer gases surrounding an entry probe is an important heating mechanism for many planetary entries. The magnitude of radiative heating for planetary atmospheres may be characterized with flight similarity in a shock tube capable of obtaining flight relevant velocities and atmospheric density/composition. Over the last decade, studies performed in the Electric Arc Shock Tube (EAST) at NASA Ames have characterized the radiative heating magnitudes for most relevant planetary destinations: Mars, Venus, Titan, Saturn, Uranus. Predictions of heating for a given entry trajectory are simulated by a combination of hypersonic flowfield modeling and the radiation code, NEQAIR, and then compared to the EAST test data. This paper will discuss the measurements, summarize the current simulation capability and provide indications for destination specific radiative heating uncertainties.

Cruden, Brett A.↗
NASA NTRS2021

COVID-19 Lockdowns Drive Decline in Active Fires in Southeastern United States

Fire is a common ecosystem process in forests and grasslands worldwide. Increasingly, ignitions are controlled by human activities either through suppression of wildfires or intentional ignition of prescribed fires. The Southeastern United States leads the nation in prescribed fire, burning ca. 80% of the countries extent annually. The COVID-19 pandemic radically changed human behavior as workplaces implemented social-distancing guidelines and provided an opportunity to evaluate relationships between humans and fire as fire management plans were postponed or cancelled. Using active fire data from satellite-based observations, we found that in the Southeastern United States, COVID-19 led to a 21% reduction in fire activity compared to the 2003-2019 average. The reduction was more pronounced for federally managed lands, up to 41% below average compared to the past 20-years (38% below average compared to the past decade). Declines in fire activity were partly affected by an unusually wet February before the COVID-19 shutdown began in mid-March 2020. Despite the wet spring, the predicted number of active fire detections was still lower than expected, confirming a COVID-19 signal on ignitions. In addition, prescribed fire management statistics, reported by US federal agencies, confirmed the satellite observations, and showed that following the wet February and before the mid-March COVID-19 shutdown, cumulative burned area was approaching record highs across the region. With fire return intervals in the Southeastern United States as frequent as 1-2 years, COVID-19 fire impacts will contribute to an increasing backlog in necessary fire management activities, affecting biodiversity and future fire danger.

Biological Sciences↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Data-Informed Environmental Conversion: Updating MIL-HDBK-217 and -338 with 50+ years of field data

Using over five decades of field data on electric and non-electric parts, we revisit the environmental conversion methodology described in MIL-HDBKs -217 and -338. These Reliability Engineering Handbooks’ predicted values are compared to new tables, developed using observed data. This observed data approach is also used to develop environmental conversion factors for non-electric parts, which were out of scope of MIL-HDBK-217 and -338.

reliability↗
NASA NTRS2023

Thermal Desktop Modeling of the 2016 CRYOTE-2 Tank Chill and Fill Tests

The storing and transfer of cryogenic propellants is an enabling technology for NASA as it moves to expand future missions into low Earth orbit (LEO) and beyond. The transfer of cryogenic propellants is of particular interest because it has never been successfully demonstrated in microgravity. Several ground tests have been conducted in past decades examining various tank chilldown and fill methods. Creating accurate models using these historical datasets is a vital step toward developing appropriate modeling tools to form pre-test predictions for eventual flight and ground tests of various novel injector concepts. The goal of this work was to create a working model in Thermal Desktop using data from the CRYOTE-2 experiments whose purpose was to demonstrate the chill and fill process in a spherical receiver tank parametrically examining the effect of injection method, receiver tank initial wall temperature and initial state, supply pressure, and mass flow rate on the NVF process. These tests were conducting using liquid nitrogen with different injectors with different injection patterns. The focus of the current work is on one particular spray nozzle. The pressure rise inside the tank, the fill level, and the change in the outside wall temperature were all tracked and compared with test data. The Thermal Desktop model was able to accurately predict each of these metrics for this nozzle within 11.0%, 22.0%, and 7.0%, respectively.

Cryogenic Tank Chilldown↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Thermal Desktop Modeling of 2016 CRYOTE-2 Tank Chill and Fill Testing

The storing and transfer of cryogenic propellants is an enabling technology for NASA and industry as civilization moves to expand future missions into low Earth orbit and beyond. Several ground propellant transfer tests have been conducted in past decades examining various tank chilldown and fill methods. Creating accurate models using these historical datasets is a vital step toward developing appropriate modeling tools to form pre-test predictions for subsequent ground and flight propellant transfers. This paper presents model validation of Thermal Desktop using data from the 2016 CRYOTE-2 liquid nitrogen transfer experiments whose purpose was to demonstrate the chill and fill process in a spherical receiver tank. Tank pressure, fill level, and wall temperature were all modeled and compared with 8 test cases using two modeling methods, Mass Controlled, and Pressure Controlled. This test series is the hardest Thermal Desktop tank chill and fill validation case to-date, yet the model was able to accurately predict each of these metrics for the 2016 tests within 28%, 10%, 20% respectively, for pressure, fill level, and wall temperature using the Mass Controlled model, and 29%, 79%, and 12%, respectively for the Pressure Controlled model.

Cryogenic Tank Chilldown↗
NASA NTRS2023

Explainable deep learning for insights in El Niño and river flows

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a semi-periodic fluctuation in sea surface temperature (SST) over the tropical central and eastern Pacific Ocean that influences interannual variability in regional hydrology across the world through long-range dependence or teleconnections. Recent research has demonstrated the value of Deep Learning (DL) methods for improving ENSO prediction as well as Complex Networks (CN) for understanding teleconnections. However, gaps in predictive understanding of ENSO-driven river flows include the black box nature of DL, the use of simple ENSO indices to describe a complex phenomenon and translating DL-based ENSO predictions to river flow predictions. Here we show that eXplainable DL (XDL) methods, based on saliency maps, can extract interpretable predictive information contained in global SST and discover SST information regions and dependence structures relevant for river flows which, in tandem with climate network constructions, enable improved predictive understanding. Our results reveal additional information content in global SST beyond ENSO indices, develop understanding of how SSTs influence river flows, and generate improved river flow prediction, including uncertainty estimation. Observations, reanalysis data, and earth system model simulations are used to demonstrate the value of the XDL-CN based methods for future interannual and decadal scale climate projections.

SST↗