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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 343 records · Page 19

The WRF-Solar Ensemble Prediction System: Development, Test, and Validation

Providing reliable probabilistic solar radiation information is needed to improve management of the uncertainty and variability of solar generation. Thus, guidance on how to develop skillful and accurate ensemble forecasts is essential and it will ultimately contribute to integration of high amounts of solar energy on the grid. A team from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and the National Center for Atmospheric Research had been collaborating to develop the WRF-Solar ensemble prediction system (WRF-Solar EPS) in the past three years to produce probabilistic solar irradiance forecasts and better predict solar energy by quantifying forecast uncertainty. The WRF-Solar EPS basically generates ensemble members for solar irradiance based on stochastic perturbations to provide intraday and day-ahead probabilistic forecasts. This study will present main research steps in developing the WRF-Solar EPS including: (a) tangent linear analysis for identifying key input variables of six WRF-Solar modules significantly related to predicting of cloud and solar irradiance, (b) combining stochastic perturbation technique with the WRF-Solar model, and (c) ensemble calibration method to decrease error and uncertainty of ensemble-based solar forecasts. The capability of WRF-Solar EPS is now updated to the most recent version of standard WRF model. This presentation will summarize comprehensive results from the evaluation of forecasts against the National Solar Radiation Data Base as well as ground-measured observations. Moreover, we will introduce the user's guide for WRF-Solar EPS (e.g., parameters to configure stochastic perturbations) and future extension of this research.

day-ahead forecast↗

Unraveling the Internal Magnetic Field Structure of the Earth-Directed Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections During 1995-2015

The magnetic field configurations associated with interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) are the in situ manifestations of the entrained magnetic structure associated with coronal mass ejections (CMEs). We present a comprehensive study of the internal magnetic field configurations of ICMEs observed at 1 AU by the Wind mission during 1995-2015. The goal is to unravel the internal magnetic structure associated with the ICMEs and establish the signatures that validate a flux-rope structure. We examine the expected magnetic field signatures by simulating spacecraft trajectories within a simple flux rope, i.e., with circular–cylindrical (CC) helical magnetic field geometry. By comparing the synthetic configurations with the 353 ICME in situ observations, we find that only 152 events ( Fr ) display the clear signatures of an expected axial-symmetric flux rope. Two more populations exhibit possible signatures of flux rope; 58 cases ( F− ) display a small rotation ( <90° ) of the magnetic field direction, interpreted as a large separation of the spacecraft from the center, and, 62 cases ( F+ ) exhibit larger rotations, possibly arising from more complex configuration. The categories, Cx (14%) and E events (9%), reveal signatures of complexity possibly related with evolutionary processes. We then reconstruct the flux ropes assuming CC geometry. We examine the orientation and geometrical properties during the solar activity levels at the end of Solar Cycle 22 (SC22), SC23 and part of SC24. The orientation exhibits solar cycle trends and follow the heliospheric current sheet orientation. We confirm previous studies that found a Hale cycle dependence of the poloidal field reversal. By comparing our results with the occurrence of CMEs with large angular width ( AW>60∘ ) we find a broad correlation suggesting that such events are highly inclined CMEs. The solar cycle distribution of bipolar vs. unipolar Bz configuration confirms that the CMEs may remove solar cycle magnetic field and helicity.

Nieves-Chinchilla, Teresa↗

Non-Maxwellian velocity distribution functions associated with steep temperature gradients in the solar transition region. Paper 1: Estimate of the electron velocity distribution functions

It was shown that, in the presence of the steep temperature gradients characteristic of EUV models of the solar transition region, the electron and proton velocity distribution functions are non-Maxwellian and are characterized by high energy tails. The magnitude of these tails are estimated for a model of the transition region and the heat flux is calculated at a maximum of 30 percent greater than predicted by collision-dominated theory.

Roussel-Dupre, R.↗

An Updated Review of the Solar PV Installation Workforce Literature

In order to develop a well-trained, equitable, and inclusive workforce with high quality jobs, the DOE Solar Energy Technologies Office (SETO) identified a need for analytical context around different PV project characteristics and labor aspects, and how they might impact workforce wellbeing and PV industry growth. To determine the most valuable novel analytical contributions, this work reviews existing literature on solar workforce topics to identify what areas have been studied previously and where gaps remain. Focus areas included the following topics: (1) metrics for solar workforce, deployment, costs, and associated studies capturing aspects such as demographics and regional distribution, (2) solar workforce wellbeing, including employee contracting mechanisms, compensation, occupational safety and health, and community impacts, (3) national and state policies most relevant to the U.S. solar workforce, and (4) ongoing efforts to expand solar workforce participation, including local staffing dynamics, challenges, and relevant strategies.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

How Is the Solar Wind Shocked? A Distribution-Function Perspective From the MMS Mission

In this talk, we will discuss how plasma distribution functions from the Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) mission transformed the picture on how the solar wind is shocked. For quasi-parallel shocks with typical Alfven Mach numbers, we will examine how ion deceleration, reflection, and thermalization take place, and illustrate how the new picture expands on the framework envisioned by Schwartz and Burgess in 1991. For quasi-perpendicular shocks with the range of Alfven Mach numbers (~1-60) captured by MMS, we will examine examples showing the processes of ion and electron thermalization go beyond the existing paradigm and call for future investigation. The knowledge advanced by MMS measurements provides a ground to understand planetary shocks in our solar system as well as astrophysical shocks arising from stellar wind interaction with exoplanets and supernova remnants.

Li-Jen Chen↗

Probabilistic impact of electricity tariffs on distribution grids considering adoption of solar and storage technologies

This study models the role of electricity tariffs on the long-term adoption of photovoltaic and storage technologies as well as the consequent impact on the distribution grid. An adoption model that captures the economic rationality of tariff-driven investments and considers the stochastic nature of individual consumers’ decisions is proposed. This model is then combined with a probabilistic load flow to evaluate the long-term impacts of the adoption on the voltage profiles of the distribution grid. To illustrate the methodology, different components of the electricity tariffs, including solar compensation mechanisms and time differentiation of Time-of-Use (ToU) rates, are evaluated, using a case study involving a section of a medium-voltage network with 118 nodes.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Solar Sail Topology Variations Due to On-Orbit Thermal Effects

The objective of this research was to predict the influence of non-uniform temperature distribution on solar sail topology and the effect of such topology variations on sail performance (thrust, torque). Specifically considered were the thermal effects due to on orbit attitude control maneuvers. Such maneuvers are expected to advance the sail to a position off-normal to the sun by as much as 35 degrees; a solar sail initially deformed by typical pre-tension and solar pressure loads may suffer significant thermally induced strains due to the non-uniform heating caused by these maneuvers. This on-orbit scenario was investigated through development of an automated analytical shape model that iterates many times between sail shape and sail temperature distribution before converging on a final coupled thermal structural affected sail topology. This model utilizes a validated geometrically non-linear finite element model and a thermal radiation subroutine. It was discovered that temperature gradients were deterministic for the off-normal solar angle cases as were thermally induced strains. Performance effects were found to be moderately significant but not as large as initially suspected. A roll torque was detected, and the sail center of pressure shifted by a distance that may influence on-orbit sail control stability.

Banik, Jeremy A.↗

Sodium heat pipe use in solar Stirling power conversion systems

Sodium heat pipes were selected for use as a thermal transport method in a focus-mounted, distributed concentrator solar Stirling power conversion system intended to produce 15-20 kWe per unit. Heat pipes were used both to receive thermal power in the solar receiver and to transmit it to a secondary heat pipe containing both latent heat salt (for up to 1.25 hours of thermal storage) and the heat exchanger of the Stirling engine. Experimental tests were performed on five solar receiver heat pipes with various internal wicking configurations. The performance of the heat pipes at various power levels and operating attitudes was investigated at temperatures near 1550 F; the unidirectional heat transfer in these heat pipes was demonstrated in normal operating attitudes and particularly in the inverted position required during overnight stowage of the concentrator.

Zimmerman, W. F.↗

Quantifying the Influence of Jupiter on the Earth’s Orbital Cycles

A wealth of Earth-sized exoplanets will be discovered in the coming years, providing a large pool of candidates from which the targets for the search for life beyond the solar system will be chosen. The target selection process will require the leveraging of all available information in order to maximize the robustness of the target list and make the most productive use of follow-up resources. Here, we present the results of a suite of n-body simulations that demonstrate the degree to which the orbital architecture of the solar system impacts the variability of Earth’s orbital elements. By varying the orbit of Jupiter and keeping the initial orbits of the other planets constant, we demonstrate how subtle changes in solar system architecture could alter the Earth’s orbital evolution—a key factor in the Milankovitch cycles that alter the amount and distribution of solar insolation, thereby driving periodic climate change on our planet. The amplitudes and frequencies of Earth’s modern orbital cycles fall in the middle of the range seen in our runs for all parameters considered—neither unusually fast nor slow, neither large nor small. This finding runs counter to the “Rare Earth” hypothesis, which suggests that conditions on Earth are so unusual that life elsewhere is essentially impossible. Our results highlight how dynamical simulations of newly discovered exoplanetary systems could be used as an additional means to assess the potential targets of biosignature searches, and thereby help focus the search for life to the most promising targets.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A Novel Non-Intrusive Method to Resolve the Thermal-Dome-Effect of Pyranometers: Radiometric Calibration and Implications

Traditionally the calibration equation for pyranometers assumes that the measured solar irradiance is solely proportional to the thermopile's output voltage; therefore only a single calibration factor is derived. This causes additional measurement uncertainties because it does not capture sufficient information to correctly account for a pyranometer's thermal effect. In our updated calibration equation, temperatures from the pyranometer's dome and case are incorporated to describe the instrument's thermal behavior, and a new set of calibration constants are determined, thereby reducing measurement uncertainties. In this paper, we demonstrate why a pyranometer's uncertainty using the traditional calibration equation is always larger than a-few-percent, but with the new approach can become much less than 1% after the thermal issue is resolved. The highlighted calibration results are based on NIST-traceable light sources under controlled laboratory conditions. The significance of the new approach lends itself to not only avoiding the uncertainty caused by a pyranometer's thermal effect but also the opportunity to better isolate and characterize other instrumental artifacts, such as angular response and non-linearity of the thermopile, to further reduce additional uncertainties. We also discuss some of the implications, including an example of how the thermal issue can potentially impact climate studies by evaluating aerosol's direct-radiative effect using field measurements with and without considering the pyranometer's thermal effect. The results of radiative transfer model simulation show that a pyranometer's thermal effect on solar irradiance measurements at the surface can be translated into a significant alteration of the calculated distribution of solar energy inside the column atmosphere.

Ji, Qiang↗

A Novel Nonintrusive Method to Resolve the Thermal Dome Effect of Pyranometers: Radiometric Calibration and Implications

Traditionally the calibration equation for pyranometers assumes that the measured solar irradiance is solely proportional to the thermopile s output voltage; therefore, only a single calibration factor is derived. This causes additional measurement uncertainties because it does not capture sufficient information to correctly account for a pyranometer s thermal effect. In our updated calibration equation, temperatures from the pyranometer's dome and case are incorporated to describe the instrument's thermal behavior, and a new set of calibration constants are determined, thereby reducing measurement uncertainties. In this paper, we demonstrate why a pyranometer's uncertainty using the traditional calibration equation is always larger than a few percent, but with the new approach can become much less than 1% after the thermal issue is resolved. The highlighted calibration results are based on NIST traceable light sources under controlled laboratory conditions. The significance of the new approach lends itself to not only avoiding the uncertainty caused by a pyranometer's thermal effect but also the opportunity to better isolate and characterize other instrumental artifacts, such as angular response and nonlinearity of the thermopile, to further reduce additional uncertainties. We also discuss some of the implications, including an example of how the thermal issue can potentially impact climate studies by evaluating aerosol s direct radiative effect using field measurements with and without considering the pyranometer s thermal effect. The results of radiative transfer model simulation show that a pyranometer s thermal effect on solar irradiance measurements at the surface can be translated into a significant alteration of the calculated distribution of solar energy inside the column atmosphere.

Ji. Q.↗

Solar flares and avalanches in driven dissipative systems

The contention of Lu and Hamilton (1991) that the energy release process in solar flares can be understood as avalanches of many small reconnection events is further developed. The dynamics of the complex magnetized plasma of solar active regions is modeled with a simple driven dissipative system, consisting of a vector field with local instabilities that cause rapid diffusion of the field. It is argued that the avalanches in this model are analogous to solar flares. The distributions of avalanches in this model are compared with the solar flare frequency distributions obtained from ISEE 3/ICE satellite observations. Quantitative agreement is found with the energy, peak luminosity, and duration distributions over four orders of magnitude in flare energy, from the largest flares down to the completeness limit of the observations. It is predicted that the power-law solar flare frequency distributions will be found to continue downward with the same logarithmic slopes to an energy of about 3 x 10 exp 25 ergs and duration of about 0.3 s, with deviations from power-law behavior below these values.

Lu, Edward T.↗

Design and performance of the solar maximum mission Hard X-ray Burst Spectrometer

The Hard X-ray Burst Spectrometer acquires data on the temporal and energy distribution of solar X-rays in the energy region from 25 to 385 keV. The detector system is a CsI(Na) central detector, and an anti-coincidence shield with photomultiplier tubes optically coupled to the central and shield crystals. Additional detectors are included for calibration and South Atlantic Anomaly monitoring. A 15 channel pulse height analysis is performed over the energy range every 128 milliseconds. This instrument is capable of handling event rates up to 500 kHz and provides high rate data up to 100 kHz with low spectral distortion. Nine accumulated rates are telemetered every 8.192 seconds. A unique feature of the instrument is the ability to sample rates from the central detector or shield with a one millisecond minimum time resolution. Such samples are stored in a 32768 sample memory with a 40 percent pretrigger event history and a 60 percent posttrigger history.

Workman, L. G.↗

Convolution Neural Network for Fault Identification in Distribution Feeder with High Penetration Solar PV

Identification and zonal classification of the faults is a decisive factor in the relay’s decision to trip or not. Different types of fault like three-phase, line-to-line-to-ground and single-line-to-ground can occur at various locations in the feeder. These faults are seen as the variation in the instantaneous values of three-phase voltages and currents, i.e., waveforms, that are measured at the relay location. The objective of this work is to develop a machine learning model that can identify a fault and classify it to various protection zones based on measured waveforms. In this work, a data-driven relay based on Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) is proposed for fault identification in distribution feeders with high penetration solar PV. The proposed CNN model takes local current and voltage waveforms as input and classify it into fault, no-fault or a capacitor switching. Further, the CNN also attempts to identify fault zones based on the images of waveforms. The overall testing accuracy of the trained model exceeds 95%.

Ramesh, Meghana↗

Getting to 95

Members of the Tennessee Valley Public Power Association (TVPPA) have the opportunity to interconnect up to 5% of their annual energy requirements in self generation. TVA, their wholesale supplier, is encouraging solar. This presentation introduces IEEE 1547 2018 and provides some high level information on solar cost.

DER↗