Model-Based and Data-Driven HVAC Control Strategies for Residential Demand Response
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24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
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Results for “Distributed model predictive control”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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On the Low Risk of Subsynchronous Resonance (SSR) in Type III Wind Turbines Operating in Grid-Forming Control
We have shown in a previous work that the risk of sub-synchronous resonance (SSR) between a wind power plant with Type III wind turbines and series-compensated transmission lines is low when the wind turbines in the plant are operated in grid-forming mode, instead of the standard grid-following mode. The fundamental mechanism behind the improved damping characteristics is explained in this paper by modeling the positive and negative sequence impedances of Type III wind turbines for GFM operation mode. It is discovered that the GFM control naturally acts against the negative resistance of Type III wind turbines that results from an interaction between the proportional gain of the rotor-side converter current controller and negative slip. The developed sequence impedance models and improved damping behavior are verified using PSCAD simulations of a 2.5-MW Type III GFM wind turbine. The modeling predictions are also supported by experimentally measuring the sequence impedance response of a 2.5-MW Type III wind turbine during operation in GFL and GFM modes.
grid-following turbine↗
Probing light quark Yukawa couplings through angularity distributions in Higgs boson decay
We propose to utilize angularity distributions in Higgs boson decay to probe light quark Yukawa couplings at e + e - colliders. Angularities $τ$ a are a class of 2-jet event shapes with variable and tunable sensitivity to the distribution of radiation in hadronic jets in the final state. Using soft-collinear effective theory (SCET), we present a prediction of angularity distributions from Higgs decaying to quark and gluon states at e + e - colliders to NNLL + $\mathcal{O}$(α s ) accuracy. Due to the different color structures in quark and gluon jets, the angularity distributions from H → $q\overline{q}$ and H → gg show different behaviors and can be used to constrain the light quark Yukawa couplings. We show that the upper limit of light quark Yukawa couplings could be probed to the level of ~ 15% of the bottom quark Yukawa coupling in the Standard Model in a conservative analysis window far away from nonperturbative effects and other uncertainties; the limit can be pushed to ≲ 7 – 9% with better control of the nonperturbative effects especially on gluon angularity distributions and/or with multiple angularities.
72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
A New Efficient Quantitative Multi-component Phase Field: Lattice Boltzmann Model for Simulating Ti6Al4V Solidified Dendrite Under Forced Flow
Ti6Al4V is a widely used, multi-component alloy in additive manufacturing, during which the fluid flow in the molten pool significantly affects the solidified dendrites. To predict and further control the microstructure, modeling and simulating the microstructure evolution play a critical role. In this study, a newly developed, efficient, quantitative multi-component phase-field (PF) model is coupled with a lattice Boltzmann (LB) model to simulate Ti6Al4V solidified dendrite evolution under fluid flow. The accuracy and convergence behavior of the model is validated by the Gibbs–Thomson relation at the dendrite tip. Single and multiple two-dimensional (2D) equiaxed dendrite evolution cases under forced flow were simulated. Results show that the dendrite pattern is influenced remarkably by the fluid flow. Underlying mechanisms of the asymmetrical evolution are revealed by discussing the interaction among the flow, composition distribution and dendrite morphology, quantitatively. The dendrite kinetics are also derived, which ascertains the relationship between tip velocity and undercooling and inlet velocity and is the foundation for larger-scale simulation. We believe that the coupled quantitative multi-component PF–LB framework employed in this study helps in investigating the solidified dendrite morphology evolution in a deep and quantitate manner.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Modeling the Size Distribution and Chemical Composition of Secondary Organic Aerosols during the Reactive Uptake of Isoprene-Derived Epoxydiols under Low-Humidity Condition
Reactive uptake of isoprene epoxydiols (IEPOX), which are isoprene oxidation products, onto acidic sulfate aerosols is recognized to be an important mechanism for the formation of isoprene-derived secondary organic aerosol (SOA). While a mechanistic understanding of IEPOX-SOA formation exists, several processes affecting their formation remain uncertain. Evaluating mechanistic IEPOX-SOA models with controlled laboratory experiments under longer atmospherically relevant timescales is critical. Here, we implement our latest understanding of IEPOX-SOA formation within a box model to simulate the measured reactive uptake of IEPOX on polydisperse ammonium bisulfate seed aerosols within an environmental Teflon chamber. The model is evaluated with single-particle measurements of size distribution, volume, density, and composition of aerosols due to IEPOX-SOA formation at timescales of hours. Additionally, we find that the model can simulate the growth of particles due to IEPOX multiphase chemistry, as reflected in increases of the mean particle size and volume concentrations, and a shift of number size distribution to larger sizes. The model also predicts the observed evolution of particle number mean diameter and total volume concentrations at the end of the experiment. We show that in addition to self-limiting effects of IEPOX-SOA coatings, accounting for the molar balance between inorganic and organic sulfate and mass accommodation coefficient of IEPOX are important parameters governing modeling of IEPOX-SOA formation. Thus, models which do not account for the molar sulfate balance and/or diffusion limitations within IEPOX-SOA coatings are likely to predict too high IEPOX-SOA formation.
37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
Spatial Trends and Drivers of Bedload and Suspended Sediment Fluxes in Global Rivers
Abstract Bedload is notoriously challenging to measure and model; its dynamics, therefore, remains largely unknown in most fluvial systems worldwide. We present results from a global scale bedload flux model as part of the WBMsed modeling framework that well predict the distribution of water discharge, suspended sediment and bedload. The sensitivity of bedload predictions to river slope, particle size, discharge, river width, and suspended sediment were analyzed, showing the model to be most responsive to spatial dynamics in river discharge and slope. The relationship between bedload and total sediment flux is analyzed globally, and for representative longitudinal river profiles (Amazon, Mississippi, and Lena Rivers). The results show that while the proportion of bedload decreases from headwaters to the coasts, there is considerable variability between basins and along river corridors. The topographic and hydrological longitudinal profiles of rivers are shown to be the key drivers of bedload trends, with fluctuations in slope controlling its more local dynamics. Estimates of water and sediment fluxes to global oceans from 2,067 largest river outlets (draining 67% of the global continental area) are provided. Estimated water discharge at 30,579 km 3 /y corresponds well to past estimates; however, sediment flux is higher. Total global particulate load of 17.8 Gt/y is delivered to global oceans, 14.8 Gt/y as washload, 1.1 Gt/y as bedload, and 2.6 Gt/y as suspended bed material. The largest 25 rivers are predicted to transport more than half of the total sediment flux to global oceans.
Cohen, Sagy↗
Defining a compact dry cooler design to reduce LCOE contribution in a CSP facility
Concentrating solar power (CSP), when coupled with a supercritical carbon dioxide (sCO 2 ) power cycle and sensible heat storage, presents a renewable and clean alternative for utility-scale power generation. However, in order to be competitive in the current and future markets, CSP facilities must limit their levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) by minimizing capital costs and reducing operating costs over the lifetime of the plant. Targeting this goal, this study investigates the LCOE impact of the power cycle pre-cooler. This study considers a compact dry cooler with micro-channel technology on the CO 2 side and formed fin geometry on the air side, using directly-coupled centrifugal fans and a transition duct to improve air distribution across the fins as well as protect the fins from contaminants which may cause blockage, soiling, fouling, and damage. In an effort to better understand the dry cooler impact on LCOE, a sensitivity study was conducted using various combinations of end-to-end approach temperatures, air-side pressure drop values, CO 2 -side pressure drop values, fan types, cooler turndown control schemes, cooler module sizes, and design-point ambient temperatures. Furthemore, off-design cycle performance data was calculated for each dry cooler design using NPSS simulation software; cycle performance data were then input to System Advisor Model (SAM) along with the associated capital costs for LCOE prediction of a 100 MW system over a 30 year plant lifetime. Results of this study show the LCOE is most sensitive to air-side performance, followed by heat transfer effectiveness and capital cost. It was found that a power cycle with a mid- to high-performance dry cooler will produce the most competitive power-production costs. Designing at the extreme ends for approach temperature (or effectiveness), design-point ambient temperature, and compactness (footprint) produce higher LCOE values; mid-range values for these parameters balance performance, operating costs, and associated capital cost to optimize LCOE.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Dynamics modeling of molten salt reactor with reduced and expanded representations of delayed neutron precursors
Molten salt reactors (MSRs) present unique challenges in dynamic behavior due to the mobility of their fuel. In these reactors, delayed neutron precursors (DNPs) drift with the fuel circulation through the primary loop. As a result, a fraction of DNPs decays outside the core, effectively reducing the available delayed neutron population for reactivity control. Consequently, precise modeling of the distribution and behavior of DNPs is critical for accurate reactor dynamics simulations. In this study, the System Dynamics Analysis Tool (SDAT) was used to simulate a thermal-spectrum MSR under steady-state conditions and following transients. The effects of using reduced and expanded representations of DNPs with fewer or more groups than the conventional 6-group model were investigated. Their impact on the simulated distribution of precursors in the primary loop, reactivity loss value, and reactor response to transients was analyzed. Simulation results showed that reduced models lead to the loss of the actual DNPs distribution data, resulting in less accurate estimates of reactivity loss. Reactor power predictions using these reduced models showed significant deviations compared to those using the conventional 6-group model in transient simulations. Expanded models offered a more accurate representation of the distribution of DNPs and reactivity loss estimates. Reactor power predictions using expanded models showed minimal deviation from the conventional 6-group model during the simulated transients.
analysis↗
Experimental and computational study of phase space dynamics in strongly coupled plasmas with steep density gradients
Understanding how plasmas thermalize when density gradients are steep remains a fundamental challenge in plasma physics, with direct implications for fusion experiments and astrophysical phenomena. Standard hydrodynamic models break down in these regimes, and kinetic theories make predictions that have never been directly tested. Here, we present the first detailed phase-space measurements of a strongly coupled plasma as it evolves from sharp density gradients to thermal equilibrium. Using laser-induced fluorescence imaging of an ultracold calcium plasma, we track the complete ion distribution function f(x,v,t). We discover that commonly used kinetic models (Bhatnagar–Gross–Krook and Lenard–Bernstein) overpredict thermalization rates, even while correctly capturing the initial counterstreaming plasma formation. Our measurements reveal that the initial ion acceleration response scales linearly with electron temperature, and that the simulations underpredict the initial ion response. In our geometry we demonstrate the formation of well-controlled counterpropagating plasma beams. This experimental platform enables precision tests of kinetic theories and opens new possibilities for studying plasma stopping power and flow-induced instabilities in strongly coupled systems.
Bergeson, Scott (ORCID:0000000231249226)↗
Numerical characterization of support recovery in sparse regression with correlated design
Sparse regression is employed in diverse scientific settings as a feature selection method. A pervasive aspect of scientific data is the presence of correlations between predictive features. These correlations hamper both feature selection and estimation and jeopardize conclusions drawn from estimated models. On the other hand, theoretical results on sparsity-inducing regularized regression have largely addressed conditions for selection consistency via asymptotics, and disregard the problem of model selection, whereby regularization parameters are chosen. In this numerical study, we address these issues through exhaustive characterization of the performance of several regression estimators, coupled with a range of model selection strategies. These estimators and selection criteria were examined across correlated regression problems with varying degrees of signal to noise, distributions of non-zero model coefficients, and model sparsity. Our results reveal a fundamental tradeoff between false positive and false negative control in all regression estimators and model selection criteria examined. Additionally, we numerically explore a transition point modulated by the signal-to-noise ratio and spectral properties of the design covariance matrix at which the selection accuracy of all considered algorithms degrades. Overall, we find that SCAD coupled with BIC or empirical Bayes model selection performs the best feature selection across the regression problems considered.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Graph-Learning-Assisted State and Event Tracking for Solar-Penetrated Power Grids with Heterogeneous Data Sources
Unlike transmission systems, distribution systems do not typically contain sufficient metering to enable real-time state estimation. The lack of sufficient real-time measurements prohibits accurate and timely monitoring of the state of distribution systems. As a result, control and optimal operation of distribution systems, especially those containing large numbers of renewable generation units are not possible without proper data and information about the current state of the system. The main motivation of this project is to address this shortcoming by developing an approach which provides “predicted” real-time measurements so that they can be used to execute a distribution system state estimator. Thus, the objective of the project is to make the distribution systems fully observable, such that the hosting capacity for solar generation can be accurately estimated, and unnecessary solar curtailments can be avoided. In order to accomplish this goal, the project investigated the use of a grid-model-informed machine learning (ML) tool which integrates heterogeneous data streams obtained from AMI meters, SCADA as well as PMU measurements and created synchronous measurement snapshots for the state estimator (SE); and developed a hybrid robust SE which provides not only accurate state estimates but also real-time feedback for the ML model refinement.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Implementation of disruptive designs for gas turbine components using direct energy deposition additive manufacturing
This research aims to develop a framework for establishing the correlation between in-situ monitoring data, process parameters, and microstructure evolution in blown-powder laser-directed energy deposition (DED) additive manufacturing (AM). To achieve this, a comprehensive manufacturing framework has been developed, spanning from in-situ data acquisition, melt-pool simulation, microstructure modeling, and statistical microstructure quantification. A machine learning-based surrogate model is constructed to predict melt pool geometry directly from in-situ coaxial camera data. The surrogate model is trained using outputs from a high-fidelity melt pool simulation, which provides accurate melt pool dimension data under varying process conditions. The predicted melt pool geometry is then used as input to a microstructure model to predict microstructural features. To rigorously compare and analyze microstructures, the project introduces statistical metrics that quantify differences based on key features such as morphology and texture. Microstructures are represented using advanced statistical descriptors including angular chord length distribution, two-point spatial statistics, orientation distribution function, and global spherical harmonic. These representations are used to compute four distinct “dissimilarity scores” that quantitatively capture differences in texture and morphology. This framework is demonstrated to enable automated calibration of simulation parameters by minimizing discrepancies between simulated and target microstructures. The technology developed in this project enables direct correlation between in-situ monitoring data and resulting microstructure, paving the way for adaptive microstructure control in metal AM. This capability strengthens the connection between process parameters and final material properties, facilitating more precise and reliable material design.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Experimental Aging and Lifetime Prediction in Grid Applications for Large-Format Commercial Li-Ion Batteries
Due to the growth of electric vehicle and stationary energy storage markets, the production and use of lithium-ion batteries has grown exponentially in recent years. For many of these applications, large-format lithium-ion batteries are being utilized, as large cells have less inactive material relative to their energy capacity and require fewer electrical connections to assemble into packs. And especially for stationary energy storage systems, where energy delivered is the only revenue source, the economics of these battery systems is highly dependent on cell lifetime. However, testing of large-format lithium-ion batteries is time consuming and requires high current channels and large testing chambers, making information on the performance of commercial, large-format lithium-ion batteries hard to come by. Here, accelerated aging test data from four commercial large-format lithium-ion batteries is reported. These batteries span both NMC-Gr and LFP-Gr cell chemistries, pouch and prismatic formats, and a range of cell designs with varying power capabilities. Accelerated aging test results are analyzed to examine both cell performance, in terms of efficiency and thermal response under load, as well as cell lifetime. Cell thermal response is characterized by measuring temperature during cycle aging, which is used to calculated a normalized thermal resistance value that may help estimate both cell cooling needs or to help extrapolate aging test results to different thermal environments. Cell lifetime is evaluated qualitatively, considering simply the average calendar and cycle life across a range of conditions, as well as quantitatively, using statistical modeling and machine-learning methods to identify predictive aging models from the accelerated aging data. These predictive aging models are then used to investigate cell sensitivities to stressors, such as cycling temperature, voltage window, and C-rate, as well as to predict cell lifetime in various stationary storage applications. Results from this work show that cell lifetime and sensitivity to aging conditions varies substantially across commercial cells, necessitating testing for specific cell formats to make quantitative lifetime predictions. That being said, all commercial cells tested here are predicted to reach at least 10-year lifetimes for stationary storage applications. Based on the aging test results and modeling, some cells are expected to be relatively insensitive to temperature and use-case, making them suited for simple use cases with little or no thermal management and simple controls, while the lifetime of other cells could be extended to 20+ years if operated with thermal management and degradation-aware controls.
battery↗
Predicted Impacts of Pt and Ionomer Distributions on Low-Pt-Loaded PEMFC Performance
Low-cost, high performance proton exchange membrane fuel cells (PEMFCs) have been difficult to develop due to limited understanding of coupled processes in the cathode catalyst layer (CCL). Low-Pt-loaded PEMFCs suffer losses beyond those predicted solely due to reduced catalyst area. Although consensus links these losses to thin ionomer films in the CCL, a precise mechanistic explanation remains elusive. In this publication, we present a physically based PEMFC model with novel structure-property relationships for thin-film Nafion, validated against PEMFC data with low Pt loading. Results suggest that flooding exacerbates kinetic limitations in low-loaded PEMFCs, shifting the Faradaic current distribution. As current density increases, protons travel further into the CCL, resulting in higher Ohmic overpotentials. We also present a parametric study of CCL design parameters. We find that graded Pt and ionomer loadings reduce Ohmic losses and flooding, but individually do not provide significant improvements. However, a dual-graded CCL (i.e., graded Pt and ionomer) is predicted to significantly improve the maximum power density and limiting current compared to uniformly loaded CCLs. This work highlights the importance of accurate transport parameters for thin-film Nafion and provides a pathway to low-cost PEMFCs via precise control of CCL microstructures.
08 HYDROGEN↗
Matrix Diffusion Controls Mountain Hillslope Groundwater Ages and Inferred Storage Dynamics
Groundwater age distributions provide fundamental insights on coupled water and biogeochemical processes in mountain watersheds. Field-based studies have found mixtures of young and old-aged groundwater in mountain catchments underlain by bedrock; yet, the processes that dictate these groundwater age distributions are poorly understood. In this work, we use the coupled ParFlow-CLM integrated hydrologic and EcoSLIM particle tracking models to simulate groundwater age distributions on a lower montane hillslope in the East River Watershed, Colorado (USA). We develop a convolution-based approach to propagate fracture-matrix diffusion processes to the EcoSLIM advection-dominated age distributions. We compare observed 3 H and 4 He concentrations from two groundwater wells against model predictions that have varying advective transport times and matrix diffusion magnitudes. Based on a Monte Carlo analysis that considers uncertain matrix and fracture parameters, we find that matrix diffusion is needed to jointly predict 3 H and 4 He observations at both wells. The advection-dominated age distributions lack adequate mixing of young and old-aged water to capture the observed co-occurrence of 3 H and 4 He. The model scenario that best matches the 3 H, 4 He, and water level observations when considering both advective flowpath and matrix diffusion mixing processes has a dynamic bedrock groundwater reservoir that is susceptible to considerable storage losses during low-snow periods. This dynamic groundwater system amplifies the need to assimilate deeper bedrock groundwater into watershed hydro-biogeochemical predictions. This work further highlights the importance of considering matrix diffusion when interpreting environmental tracers in bedrock groundwater systems.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Forecasting Battery Electrode Performance via Electrochemical Fluorescence Microscopy and Machine-Learning
Predicting lithium-ion battery performance is hindered by microscale electrode heterogeneities invisible to conventional diagnostics. Here, we combine electrochemical fluorescence microscopy (EFM), which maps electronic connectivity by visualizing an electrofluorophore reaction distribution, with a multitask ElasticNet regression to forecast discharge capacity from spatial heterogeneity. Analyzing 196 images from six pilot-scale LiNi 0.5 Mn 0.3 Co 0.2 O 2 cathodes with varying carbon loadings, we extract 62 descriptors that capture morphology and texture. A compact five-feature model predicts capacity across eight discharge rates, achieving a per-target R 2 of up to 0.63 and an overall R 2 of 0.92, with a mean absolute percentage error of less than 2%. This performance rivals impedance-based approaches while avoiding their reliance on postformation data and incomplete electronic network information. Our facile and rapid, image-driven method may enable electrode quality control upstream of costly cell assembly to offer a transformative tool for data-driven battery research and manufacturing.
battery electrodes↗
Estimating the value of jointly optimized electric power generation and end use: a study of ISO-scale load shaping applied to the residential building stock
A generation-to-load simulation estimated the impact, in terms of production costs and CO2 emissions, attributable to the joint optimization of electric power generation and flexible end uses to support increasing penetrations of renewable energy. Newly conceived, evaluated, and foundational in developing a U.S. National Standard was a transaction-less yet continuous demand response system based on a day-ahead optimum load shape (OLS) designed to encourage Internet-connected devices to autonomously and voluntarily explore options to favour lowest cost generators - without requiring two-way communications, personally identifiable information, or customer opt-in. Boundary conditions used for model calibration included historical weather, residential building stock construction attributes, home appliance and device empirical operating schedules, prototypical power distribution feeder models, thermal generator heat rates, startup and ramping constraints, and fuel costs. Results of an hourly-based annual case study of Texas indicate a 1/3 reduction in production costs and a 1/5 reduction in CO2 emissions are possible.
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
Projective Integral Updates for High-Dimensional Variational Inference
Variational inference is an approximation framework for Bayesian inference that seeks to improve quantified uncertainty in predictions by optimizing a simplified distribution over parameters to stand in for the full posterior. Capturing model variations that remain consistent with training data enables more robust predictions by reducing parameter sensitivity. This work introduces a fixed-point optimization for variational inference that is applicable when every feasible log density can be expressed as a linear combination of functions from a given basis. In such cases, the optimizer becomes a fixed-point of projective integral updates. When the basis spans univariate quadratics in each parameter, the feasible distributions are Gaussian mean-fields and the projective integral updates yield quasi-Newton variational Bayes (QNVB). Other bases and updates are also possible. Since these updates require high-dimensional integration, this work begins by proposing an efficient quasirandom sequence of quadratures for mean-field distributions. Each iterate of the sequence contains two evaluation points that combine to correctly integrate all univariate quadratic functions and, if the mean-field factors are symmetric, all univariate cubics. More importantly, averaging results over short subsequences achieves periodic exactness on a much larger space of multivariate polynomials of quadratic total degree. The corresponding variational updates require four loss evaluations with standard (not second-order) backpropagation to eliminate error terms from over half of all multivariate quadratic basis functions. Furthermore, this integration technique is motivated by first proposing stochastic blocked mean-field quadratures, which may be useful in other contexts. A PyTorch implementation of QNVB allows for better control over model uncertainty during training than competing methods. Experiments demonstrate superior generalizability for multiple learning problems and architectures.
Gaussian mean-field↗