Buried Aseismic Slip and Off-Fault Deformation on the Southernmost San Andreas Fault triggered by the 2010 El Mayor Cucapah Earthquake revealed by UAVSAR
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Jay Parker↗
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The impact of the 2015/2016 El Niño on global photosynthesis using satellite remote sensing
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Xiangzhong Luo↗
Human disturbance amplifies Amazonian El Niño–Southern Oscillation signal
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Mark B. Bush↗
On the Bimodality of ENSO Cycle Extremes
On the basis of sea surface temperature in the El Nino 3.4 region (5 deg. N.,-5 deg. S., 120-170 deg. W.) during the interval of 1950-1997, Kevin Trenberth previously has identified some 16 El Nino and 10 La Nina, these 26 events representing the extremes of the quasi-periodic El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. Runs testing shows that the duration, recurrence period, and sequencing of these extremes vary randomly. Hence, the decade of the 1990's, especially for El Nino, is not significantly different from that of previous decadal epochs, at least, on the basis of the frequency of onsets of ENSO extremes. Additionally, the distribution of duration for both El Nino and La Nina looks strikingly bimodal, each consisting of two preferred modes, about 8- and 16-mo long for El Nino and about 9- and 18-mo long for La Nina, as does the distribution of the recurrence period for El Nino, consisting of two preferred modes about 21- and 50-mo long. Scatterplots of the recurrence period versus duration for El Nino are found to be statistically important, displaying preferential associations that link shorter (longer) duration with shorter (longer) recurrence periods. Because the last onset of El Nino occurred in April 1997 and the event was of longer than average duration, onset of the next anticipated El Nino is not expected until February 2000 or later.
Wilson, Robert M.↗
On The Bimodality of ENSO Cycle Extremes
On the basis of sea surface temperature in the El Nino 3.4 region (5N.-5S., 120-170W.) during the interval of 1950-1997, Kevin Trenberth previously has identified some 16 El Nino and 10 La Nina, these 26 events representing the extremes of the quasi-periodic El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. Runs testing shows that the duration, recurrence period, and sequencing of these extremes vary randomly. Hence, the decade of the 1990's, especially for El Nino, is not significantly different from that of previous decadal epochs, at least, on the basis of the frequency of onsets of ENSO extremes. Additionally, the distribution of duration for both El Nino and La Nina looks strikingly bimodal, each consisting of two preferred modes, about 8- and 16-months long for El Nino and about 9- and 18-months long for La Nina, as does the distribution of the recurrence period for El Nino, consisting of two preferred modes about 21- and 50- mo long. Scatterplots of the recurrence period versus duration for El Nino are found to be statistically important, displaying preferential associations that link shorter (longer) duration with shorter (longer) recurrence periods. Because the last onset of El Nino occurred in April 1997 and the event was of longer than average duration, onset of the next anticipated El Nino is not expected until February 2000 or later.
Wilson, Robert M.↗
On the Annual Frequency of Intense Hurricanes in Relation to the Extremes of ENSO and the Interludes Between Them
On the basis of Trenberth's quantitative definition for marking the occurrence of an El Nino, one can precisely identify some 15 El Nino and 10 La Nina events during the interval of 1950-1997. The statistical aspects of these identified extremes and the intervening periods between them (interludes) are determined. Also, a comparison of the appearances of these extremes and interludes with yearly hurricane seasons shows that of the last 48 hurricane seasons, 20 (42%) are El Nino-related (i.e., an El Nino was in progress during all, or part, of the yearly hurricane season - June-November), 13 (27%) are La Nina-related, and 15 (31%) are interlude - related. Combining the two subgroups of La Nino- and interlude - related seasons into a single grouping called non-El Nino-related seasons, one finds that the non-El Nino-related seasons have a mean annual frequency of intense hurricanes measuring 2.8, while the El Nino-related seasons have a mean annual frequency of intense hurricanes measuring 1.3, and the observed difference in the means is inferred to be statistically important at the 99.8% level of confidence. Therefore, during El Nino-related seasons, fewer intense hurricanes (typically, less than or equal to 2) should be expected, while durin(y non-El Nino-related seasons, more (typically, greater than or equal to 2) should be expected. Implications for the upcoming 1998 and future hurricane seasons are discussed.
Wilson, Robert M.↗
On the Bimodality of ENSO Cycle Extremes
On the basis of sea surface temperature in the Nino 3.4 region (5 deg N-5 deg S, 120 deg- 170 deg W) during the interval of 1950-1997, Kevin Trenberth previously has identified some 16 El Nino and 10 La Nina, these 26 events representing the extremes of the quasi-periodic El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. Runs testing shows that the duration and recurrence period associated with these extremes vary randomly, as does the sequencing of the extremes. Hence, the frequency of occurrence of these events during the 1990s, especially, for El Nino should not be construed as being significantly different from that of previous epochs. Additionally, the distribution of duration for both El Nino and La Nina looks bimodal, consisting of two preferred modes - about 8 and 16 months in length for El Nino and about 9 and 18 months in length for La Nina. Likewise, the distribution of recurrence period, especially, for El Nino looks bimodal, consisting of two preferred modes - about 21 and 50 months in length. Scatter plots of the recurrence period versus duration for El Nino strongly suggest preferential associations between them, linking shorter (longer) duration with shorter (longer) recurrence period. Because the last known onset of El Nino occurred in April 1997 and the event was of longer than average duration, one infers that the onset of the next expected El Nino will not occur until February 2000 or later.
Wilson, Robert M.↗
ENSO Variations in Tropical Precipitation
TRMM was launched during the height of the 1997-98 El Nino and offered new insights into the evolution of precipitation during this event. The rapid decline of the El Nino in May 1998 was followed by a long lasting La Nina. Extreme wet and dry regions in the tropics during this El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle will be compared with the previous 23 years using the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) products. In particular, patterns of precipitation anomalies preceding El Nino will be examined. It has been shown that 30-60 day oscillations in convection appear in the western Pacific before the onset of El Nino. Also, a fast traveling equatorial wave of rainfall circled the globe during the demise of 1997-98 El Nino. Recent work has revealed an interesting relationship between a gradient of anomalous precipitation in the eastern Indian Ocean and the initiation of El Nino. This link will be explored as well as other anomaly patterns in 2002, which may signal an upcoming El Nino.
Curtis, Scott↗
Sampling the ENSO response to tropical volcanic eruptions in the GISS-E2-1 model: physical & biogeochemical ocean effects
Despite observational evidence that an El-Niño is likely to follow tropical volcanic eruptions (Predybaylo et al, 2017), modelling studies have so far reached no consensus on either the sign or physical mechanism of El Niño response to volcanism (Khodri et al, 2017) . A previous modelling study found that following the Pinatubo eruption, the tropical Pacific developed El Niño-like conditions that triggered a decrease in the upwelling of DIC and increased carbon uptake (Eddebbar et al., 2019). However, the carbon cycle response to volcanisms as it depends on ENSO phase remains unclear. Here we perform thirty ensemble control simulations using the GISS-E2-1-G model to sample the pre-industrial control ENSO cycle and thirty more to superimpose a Pinatubo-like volcanic eruption. We find that the model tends to favor the development of a weak El-Niño following the volcanic eruption only in the case of a volcano that erupts at the start of a neutral ENSO phase. In response to the weak El-Niño, some anomalies have the same sign as those that develop from a strong El-Niño, such as weaker winds, shallower mixed layer depths, less direct but more diffuse radiation at the surface of the ocean, less nitrate, and lower primary productivity. However, other anomalies show the opposite sign as those from a strong El-Niño, such as more precipitation, less surface DIC, and less surface ocean pCO 2 . In contrast to the neutral phase, the volcanic response during positive ENSO and negative ENSO phases are swamped by the model’s internal variability.
ENSO↗
Assessment of the 1997-1998 Asian Monsoon Anomalies
Using State-of-the-art satellite-gauge monthly rainfall estimate and optimally interpolated sea surface temperature (SST) data, we have assessed the 1997-98 Asian monsoon anomalies in terms of three basic causal factors: basin-scale SST, regional coupling, and internal variability. Singular Value Decomposition analysis of rainfall and SST are carried out globally over the entire tropics and regionally over the Asian monsoon domain. Contributions to monsoon rainfall predictability by various factors are evaluated from cumulative anomaly correlation with dominant regional SVD modes. Results reveal a dominant, large-scale monsoon-El Nino coupled mode with well-defined centers of action in the near-equatorial monsoon regions. it is noted that some subcontinental regions such as all-India, or arbitrarily chosen land regions over East Asia, while important socio-economically, are not near the centers of influence from El Nino, hence are not necessarily representative of the response of the entire monsoon region to El Nino. The observed 1997-98 Asian monsoon anomalies are found to be very complex with approximately 34% of the anomalies attributable to basin- scale SST influence associated with El Nino. Regional coupled processes contribute an additional 19%, leaving about 47% due to internal dynamics. Also noted is that the highest monsoon predictability is not necessary associated with major El Nino events (e.g. 1997, 1982) but rather in non-El Nino years (e.g. 1980, 1988) when contributions from the regional coupled modes far exceed those from the basin-scale SST. The results suggest that in order to improve monsoon seasonal-to-interannual predictability, there is a need to exploit not only monsoon-El Nino relationship, but also monsoon regional coupled processes and their modulation by long-term climate change.
Lau, William K.-M.↗
Statistical Approach for Determining the Onsets/Durations of ENSO Cycle Extremes
During the interval of 1950-mid 1998, some 16 El Nino and 10 La Nina have been identified on the basis of sea surface temperature in the Nino 3.4 region, these 26 events representing the extremes of the quasi-periodic ENSO cycle. Statistical aspects of these events are examined. Surprisingly, the durations of El Nino and La Nina appear to be strongly bifurcated into shorter and longer duration classes, as do the recurrence periods of El Nino. Moreover, the duration of an El Nino appears to provide a statistically meaningful indication as to when to expect the next onset of El Nino. Because the last El Nino had its onset in April 1997 and was of longer duration, onset of the next El Nino, probably, will not occur until after February 2000.
Wilson, Robert M.↗
External Load Affects Ground Reaction Force Parameters Non-uniformly during Running in Weightlessness
Long-term exposure to microgravity induces detrimefits to the musculcskdetal system (Schneider et al., 1995; LeBlanc et al., 2000). Treadmill exercise is used onboard the International Space Station as an exercise countermeasure to musculoskeletal deconditioning due to spaceflight. During locomotive exercise in weightlessness (0G), crewmembers wear a harness attached to an external loading mechanism (EL). The EL pulls the crewmember toward the treadmill, and provides resistive load during the impact and propulsive phases of gait. The resulting forces may be important in stimulating bone maintenance (Turner, 1998). The EL can be applied via a bungee and carabineer clip configuration attached to the harness and can be manipulated to create varying amounts of load levels during exercise. Ground-based research performed using a vertically mounted treadmill found that peak ground reaction forces (GRF) during running at an EL of less than one body weight (BW) are less than those that occur during running in normal gravity (1G) (Davis et al., 1996). However, it is not known how the GRF are affected by the EL in a true OG environment. Locomotion while suspended may result in biomechanics that differ from free running. The purpose of this investigation was to determine how EL affects peak impact force, peak propulsive force, loading rate, and impulse of the GRF during running in 0G. It was hypothesized that increasing EL would result in increases in each GRF parameter.
DeWitt, John↗
Exploration Life Support Technology Development for Lunar Missions
Exploration Life Support (ELS) is one of NASA's Exploration Technology Development Projects. ELS plans, coordinates and implements the development of new life support technologies for human exploration missions as outlined in NASA's Vision for Space Exploration. ELS technology development currently supports three major projects of the Constellation Program - the Orion Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV), the Altair Lunar Lander and Lunar Surface Systems. ELS content includes Air Revitalization Systems (ARS), Water Recovery Systems (WRS), Waste Management Systems (WMS), Habitation Engineering, Systems Integration, Modeling and Analysis (SIMA), and Validation and Testing. The primary goal of the ELS project is to provide different technology options to Constellation which fill gaps or provide substantial improvements over the state-of-the-art in life support systems. Since the Constellation missions are so challenging, mass, power, and volume must be reduced from Space Shuttle and Space Station technologies. Systems engineering analysis also optimizes the overall architecture by considering all interfaces with the life support system and potential for reduction or reuse of resources. For long duration missions, technologies which aid in closure of air and water loops with increased reliability are essential as well as techniques to minimize or deal with waste. The ELS project utilizes in-house efforts at five NASA centers, aerospace industry contracts, Small Business Innovative Research contracts and other means to develop advanced life support technologies. Testing, analysis and reduced gravity flight experiments are also conducted at the NASA field centers. This paper gives a current status of technologies under development by ELS and relates them to the Constellation customers who will eventually use them.
Ewert, Michael K.↗
How Well Do Global Climate Models Simulate the Variability of Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Associated with ENSO?
The variability of Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) associated with El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in model simulations is assessed and compared with observations. The model experiments are 28-yr simulations forced with the observed sea surface temperature from 1982 to 2009. The simulations were coordinated by the U.S. CLIVAR Hurricane Working Group and conducted with five global climate models (GCMs) with a total of 16 ensemble members. The model performance is evaluated based on both individual model ensemble means and multi-model ensemble mean. The latter has the highest anomaly correlation (0.86) for the interannual variability of TCs. Previous observational studies show a strong association between ENSO and Atlantic TC activity, as well as distinctions in the TC activities during eastern Pacific (EP) and central Pacific (CP) El Nino events. The analysis of track density and TC origin indicates that each model has different mean biases. Overall, the GCMs simulate the variability of Atlantic TCs well with weaker activity during EP El Nino and stronger activity during La Nina. For CP El Nino, there is a slight increase in the number of TCs as compared with EP El Nino. However, the spatial distribution of track density and TC origin is less consistent among the models. Particularly, there is no indication of increasing TC activity over the U.S. southeast coastal region as in observations. The difference between the models and observations is likely due to the bias of vertical wind shear in response to the shift of tropical heating associated with CP El Nino, as well as the model bias in the mean circulation.
Tropical Cyclones↗
Pyroxene structures, cathodoluminescence and the thermal history of the enstatite chondrites
In order to explore the thermal history of enstatite chondrites, we examined the cathodoluminescence (CL) and thermoluminescence (TL) properties of 15 EH chondrites and 21 EL chondrites, including all available petrographic types, both textural types 3-6 and mineralogical types alpha-delta. The CL properties of EL3(alpha) and EH3(alpha) chondrites are similar. Enstatite grains high in Mn and other transition metals display red CL, while enstatite with low concentrations of these elements show blue CL. A few enstatite grains with greater than 5 wt% FeO display no CL. In contrast, the luminescent properties of the metamorphosed EH chondrites are very different from those of metamorphosed EL chondrites. While the enstatites in metamorphosed EH chondrites display predominantly blue CL, the enstatites in metamorphosed EL chondrites display a distinctive magenta CL with blue and red peaks of approximately equal intensity in their spectra. The TL sensitivities of the enstatite chondrites correlate with the intensity of the blue CL and, unlike other meteorite classes, are not simply related to metamorphism. The different luminescent properties of metamorphosed EH and EL chondrites cannot readily be attributed to compositional differences. But x-ray diffraction data suggests that the enstatite in EH5(gamma),(delta) chondrites is predominantly disordered orthopyroxene, while enstatite in EL6(beta) chondrites is predominantly ordered orthopyroxene. The difference in thermal history of metamorphosed EL and EH chondrites is so marked that the use of single 'petrographic' types is misleading, and separate textural and mineralogical types are preferable. Our data confirm earlier suggestions that metamorphosed EH chondrites underwent relatively rapid cooling, and the metamorphosed EL chondrites cooled more slowly and experienced prolonged heating in the orthopyroxene field.
Zhang, Yanhong↗
Global Monthly and Daily Precipitation Analysis for the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP): Global and Regional Variations and Trends
The 22 year, monthly, globally complete precipitation analysis of the World Climate Research Program's (WCRP/GEWEX) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) and the four year (1997-present) daily GPCP analysis are described in terms of the data sets and analysis techniques used in their preparation. These analyses are then used to study global and regional variations and trends during the 22 years and the shorter-time scale events that constitute those variations. The GPCP monthly data set shows no significant trend in global precipitation over the twenty years, unlike the positive trend in global surface temperatures over the past century. The global trend analysis must be interpreted carefully, however, because the inhomogeneity of the data set makes detecting a small signal very difficult, especially over this relatively short period. The relation of global (and tropical) total precipitation and ENSO (El Nino and Southern Oscillation) events is quantified with no significant signal when land and ocean are combined. In terms of regional trends 1979 to 2000 the tropics have a distribution of regional rainfall trends that has an ENSO-like pattern with features of both the El Nino and La Nina. This feature is related to a possible trend in the frequency of ENSO events (either El Nino or La Nina) over the past 20 years. Monthly anomalies of precipitation are related to ENSO variations with clear signals extending into middle and high latitudes of both hemispheres. The El Nino and La Nina mean anomalies are near mirror images of each other and when combined produce an ENSO signal with significant spatial continuity over large distances. A number of the features are shown to extend into high latitudes. Positive anomalies extend in the Southern Hemisphere from the Pacific southeastward across Chile and Argentina into the south Atlantic Ocean. In the Northern Hemisphere the counterpart feature extends across the southern U.S. and Atlantic Ocean into Europe. In the Southern Hemisphere an anomaly feature is shown to spiral into the Antarctica land mass. The extremes of ENSO-related anomalies are also examined and indicate that globally, during both El Nino and La Nina, more extremes of precipitation (both wet and dry) occur than during the "neutral" regime, with the El Nino regime showing larger magnitudes. The distribution is different for the globe as a whole and when the area is restricted to just land. The recent (1998-present) Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) observations are also compared with the GPCP analyses and are evaluated with regard to improving the long-term GPCP data set.
Adler, Robert F.↗
Exploration Life Support Critical Questions for Future Human Space Missions
Exploration Life Support (ELS) is a current project under NASA's Exploration Systems Mission Directorate. The ELS Project plans, coordinates and implements the development of advanced life support technologies for human exploration missions in space. Recent work has focused on closed loop atmosphere and water systems for long duration missions, including habitats and pressurized rovers. But, what are the critical questions facing life support system developers for these and other future human missions? This paper explores those questions and how progress in the development of ELS technologies can help answer them. The ELS Project includes the following Elements: Atmosphere Revitalization Systems, Water Recovery Systems, Waste Management Systems, Habitation Engineering, Systems Integration, Modeling and Analysis, and Validation and Testing, which includes the Sub-Elements Flight Experiments and Integrated Testing. Systems engineering analysis by ELS seeks to optimize overall mission architectures by considering all the internal and external interfaces of the life support system and the potential for reduction or reuse of commodities. In particular, various sources and sinks of water and oxygen are considered along with the implications on loop closure and the resulting launch mass requirements. Systems analysis will be validated through the data gathered from integrated testing, which will demonstrate the interfaces of a closed loop life support system. By applying a systematic process for defining, sorting and answering critical life support questions, the ELS project is preparing for a variety of future human space missions
Kwert, Michael K.↗
Interannual Variability of OLR as Observed by AIRS and CERES
This paper compares spatial anomaly time series of OLR (Outgoing Longwave Radiation) and OLR(sub CLR) (Clear Sky OLR) as determined using observations from CERES Terra and AIRS over the time period September 2002 through June 2011. Both AIRS and CERES show a significant decrease in global mean and tropical mean OLR over this time period. We find excellent agreement of the anomaly time-series of the two OLR data sets in almost every detail, down to 1 deg X 1 deg spatial grid point level. The extremely close agreement of OLR anomaly time series derived from observations by two different instruments implies that both sets of results must be highly stable. This agreement also validates to some extent the anomaly time series of the AIRS derived products used in the computation of the AIRS OLR product. The paper also examines the correlations of anomaly time series of AIRS and CERES OLR, on different spatial scales, as well as those of other AIRS derived products, with that of the NOAA Sea Surface Temperature (SST) product averaged over the NOAA Nino-4 spatial region. We refer to these SST anomalies as the El Nino Index. Large spatially coherent positive and negative correlations of OLR anomaly time series with that of the El Nino Index are found in different spatial regions. Anomalies of global mean, and especially tropical mean, OLR are highly positively correlated with the El Nino Index. These correlations explain that the recent global and tropical mean decreases in OLR over the period September 2002 through June 2011, as observed by both AIRS and CERES, are primarily the result of a transition from an El Nino condition at the beginning of the data record to La Nina conditions toward the end of the data period. We show that the close correlation of global mean, and especially tropical mean, OLR anomalies with the El Nino Index can be well accounted for by temporal changes of OLR within two spatial regions which lie outside the NOAA Nino-4 region, in which anomalies of cloud cover and mid-tropospheric water vapor are both highly negatively correlated with the El Nino Index. Agreement of the AIRS and CERES OLR(sub CLR) anomaly time series is less good, which may be a result of the large sampling differences in the ensemble of cases included in each OLR(sub CLR) data set.
Susskind, Joel↗