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DOE OSTI2024

Impact of carbon dioxide removal technologies on deep decarbonization: EMF37 MARKAL–NETL modeling results

Here this paper examines the MARKAL-NETL modeling results for the Energy Modeling Forum Study on Deep Decarbonization & High Electrification Scenarios for North America (EMF 37) with specific focus on carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies and opportunities under different scenarios guidelines, policies, and technological advancements. The results demonstrate that CDR, such as, bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), direct air capture (DAC) and afforestation are key negative emission technologies in deep decarbonization scenarios in the U.S. are accounted for about 70% of annually avoided carbon dioxide emissions (CO 2 ) by 2050, or more than 2 billion tons of CO 2 (GtCO 2 ). The potential scale of CDR and its impact on the energy system depends on energy supply and demand technologies advancement and their costs, the level of end-use sectors electrification, availability and costs of CDR. Results show that the carbon prices are substantially lower if the advanced technologies available, particularly, in carbon management scenarios.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Energy efficiency in industrial drying: A hybrid ultrasonic system with a novel dynamic optimization framework

Drying processes are among the most energy-consuming operations in industrial and manufacturing settings, demanding strategic selection, design, and control for enhanced efficiency. Advancing drying technologies is critical for improving sustainability, lowering energy use, reducing carbon emissions, and minimizing waste. This study explores two innovative strategies aimed at transforming drying processes into sustainable, low-carbon systems by reducing energy consumption, minimizing waste, and maintaining a strong emphasis on preserving product quality. The first strategy showcases a sub-pilot scale hybrid ultrasonic-convective dryer for agrifood products. This technology, powered by electricity (process electrification), integrates non-thermal ultrasonic dehydration with convective heating and is presented as a sustainable and energy-efficient solution that enhances eco-friendly practices. The second strategy involves introducing and implementing a novel, multiobjective, mixed integer dynamic optimization technique to determine the optimal time-dependent process parameter values for the drying operation. This optimization technique yields operating conditions that are piecewise constant in time aiming to maximize the energy efficiency of the hybrid ultrasonic-convective dryer while ensuring strict adherence to product quality constraints. By adopting the hybrid ultrasonic-convective dryer, a notable 35% improvement in energy efficiency was achieved compared to conventional hot-air drying systems for drying apple slices. The proposed optimization framework further enhanced energy efficiency by nearly 14% over the most efficient process on the identical testbed, under static operating conditions. The reported enhancements have been experimentally validated. Regarding drying time (thereby improving production yield), the developed hybrid ultrasonic-convective dryer demonstrates as much as a 41% reduction in total processing time, which is further optimized by an additional 10% using our proposed optimization framework. The research outcomes have profound implications for the design and operation of drying systems, encompassing crucial aspects such as process electrification, cost-effectiveness, energy savings, time efficiency, product yield, product quality, and process automation.

Dynamic optimization↗

DOE OSTI2020

A High-Efficient Solution for Electro-Hydraulic Actuators with Energy Regeneration Capability

This paper proposes a cost-effective, robustly practical solution for a high-efficient electro-hydraulic actuator (EHA) for linear drives. The solution addresses the challenges of high costs and limited efficiency that limit the application of EHA for the electrification of many off-road vehicles. Based on a variable-speed electric motor and a low-cost technology for a fixed-displacement pump, the proposed solution is suitable for a compact implementation and it is capable of energy regeneration under overrunning load conditions. Two different architectures—an open circuit and a closed circuit one—are considered to determine the most practical and efficient configuration as well as the control features. Both architectures minimize throttling losses associated with the conventional regulation of hydraulic actuators. Actuator velocities below the minimum and beyond the maximum allowable pump flow rate are achieved in both architectures using a proportional valve that bypasses the pump flow. The paper describes the design methodology as well as the simulation and experimental activities performed to verify the control strategies as well as energy efficiency. Considering an EHA system of about 20 kW, a complete efficiency map of the system is determined for all the possible four quadrants of operation thus including both resistive and overrunning loads, where energy recuperation is implemented. Simulation and experimental results show that the energy efficiency of the hydraulic systems can reach 84.7% in resistive phases. In assistive phases, the hydraulic system can recover up to 81.8% of the actuator energy. Here, the comparison between open-circuit and closed-circuit structures shows the advantages of the former in terms of energy efficiency. The proposed solution is suitable for electrified hydraulic actuation systems, in both industrial and mobile applications. With the advantages of the low cost of the hydraulic unit and high energy efficiency, it is particularly suitable for mobile applications such as construction machines, that are recently experiencing a significant electrification trend.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Probabilistic feasibility assessment of sequestration reliance for climate targets

Countries worldwide are transforming their energy systems to achieve Carbon-Neutrality. Investing in renewable resources-based technologies and implementing Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) are common strategies to achieve higher sequestration levels. Negative emissions through Bioenergy with CCS are expected to play an essential role in the transition to full decarbonization. On top of that, biomass is a limited resource that depends on environmental factors, which create uncertainties related to the amount that can be sustainably provided to the energy system. Here this study emphasizes the relevance of variability in carbon sequestration for achieving climate targets by 2050. Here this paper proposes a probabilistic approach that integrates the Global Change Analysis Model for Latin America (GCAM-LA) with a chance constraint approach. GCAM-LA is used to assess the impact on the energy sector of different limits of sustainable biomass and carbon budget scenarios. The risk associated with exceeding the sequestration capacity of a given region is modeled via Chance Constraint. Results show that electrification is an appropriate long-term decarbonization strategy. It smoothes the effects of uncertainty in sequestration capacity and responds to end-user demands. For this case study, higher levels of electrification are obtained at likelihood levels >66% for end-use sectors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Inequality and the Future of Electric Mobility in 36 U.S. Cities: An Innovative Methodology and Comparative Assessment

Electric vehicles are seen as one of the technological solutions to transition our transportation systems away from carbon, and cities offer unique opportunities to electrify transportation. To be equitable, however, this transition will not merely require technological innovations. Acknowledging socio-spatial inequalities and creating strategies to address them are critical - yet relatively underexplored - dimensions of the transportation transition. This paper integrates relevant literature into a micro-urban social typology (MUST) approach that uses agglomerative clustering techniques to examine, first, the factors and attributes defining transportation inequities within 36 U.S. cities, and, second, the implications of these inequities for policies that foster a more equitable transportation transition. By combining socio-spatial and transportation data, we identified five MUSTs: Wealthy, Urban Disadvantaged, Urban Renters, Middle-Class Homeowners, and Rural/Exurban. Rather than being tied to any particular indicator (e.g., homeownership), these MUSTs contain intersecting factors and features of inequities. We compare transportation and health outcomes across MUSTs, and the results suggest that user-centric strategies and public investments are necessary to foster true transportation equity. These must go beyond the electrification of private vehicles and should be tailored to the specific characteristics of each MUST. These could include electric carpooling for the rural/exurban MUST and electrification of transit for the urban disadvantaged and renter MUSTs. Our typology offers a critical next step toward informing transportation transition policies to target critical sociodemographic, economic, and techno-infrastructural factors.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLIC↗

DOE OSTI2025

Decarbonizing residential buildings in the United States: A comparative analysis of households and construction professionals

In this study, we present a comparative analysis of surveys distributed to home occupants and construction professionals in the U.S., focused on energy upgrades and electrification retrofits that support residential building decarbonization. The surveys were executed by separate research groups and combined for this study. The study examines the decision-making, sentiments, perceptions, experiences, and practices of both groups by analyzing data from three separate surveys. These surveys assess technologies, attitudes, awareness, motivations, barriers, and opportunities related to energy retrofits and electrification. The analysis highlights key differences in the perceptions and behaviors of households and construction professionals, revealing substantial barriers to achieving decarbonization goals. For example, households cite climate change and sustainability as key motivators for pursuing energy retrofits (89%), while construction industry professionals view these themes as less important for their clients (44%). This suggests an opportunity for the construction industry to align its messaging with the values that households prioritize, helping to advance residential decarbonization. Overall, the study identifies challenges faced by both groups, factors influencing the adoption of energy-efficient practices, and inconsistencies between occupant and construction industry professionals' views. These insights contribute to the development of targeted strategies and policies to accelerate the decarbonization of residential buildings in the U.S.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2022

Exploring the potential of hydrogen in decarbonizing China's light-duty vehicle market

The Chinese government has pledged to achieve overall carbon neutrality by 2060. Currently, the transportation sector contributes to about 10% of total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in China. Hence, China has created a well-defined energy vehicle development strategy to reduce GHG emissions from the transportation sector, further expanding into hydrogen vehicle technologies. In this study, the Transportation Energy Analysis Model (TEAM) investigates the potential of hydrogen internal combustion engine vehicles (H2- ICEVs) and fuel cell vehicles (FCEVs) as a reliable pathway towards the government's aspiration of carbon neutrality in the transportation sector. According to TEAM, by adopting FCEVs and H2-ICEVs in the vehicle market, hydrogen demand could reach 25% of the total light-duty transportation energy demand in 2050. Consequently, this will lead to an annual reduction of more than 35 million tons GHG compared to only counting on the electrification pathway in the decarbonization task. Besides, FCEVs would take longer to penetrate the light-duty vehicle market compared to H2-ICEVs, as the current fuel cell technology still requires much improvement to attain a competitive vehicle cost of production.

Life cycle analysis↗

DOE OSTI2023

Assessing the cost-effectiveness of carbon neutrality for light-duty vehicle sector in China

China’s progress in decarbonizing its transportation, particularly vehicle electrification, is notable. However, the economically effective pathways are underexplored. To find out how much cost is necessary for carbon neutrality for the light-duty vehicle (LDV) sector, this study examines twenty decarbonization pathways, combining the New Energy and Oil Consumption Credit model and the China-Fleet model. We find that the 2060 zero-greenhouse gas (GHG) emission goal for LDVs is achievable via electrification if the battery pack cost is under CNY483/kWh by 2050. However, an extra of CNY8.86 trillion internal subsidies is needed under pessimistic battery cost scenarios (CNY759/kWh in 2050) to eliminate 246 million tonnes of CO 2 -eq by 2050 ensuring over 80% market penetration of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) in 2050. Moreover, the promotion of fuel cell electric vehicles is synergy with BEVs to mitigate the carbon abatement difficulties, decreasing up to 34% of the maximum marginal abatement internal investment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Mitigating life cycle GHG emissions of roads to be built through 2030: Case study of a Chinese province

We report the expansion of road networks in emerging economies such as China causes significant greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This development is conflicting with China's commitment to achieve carbon neutrality. Thus, there is a need to better understand life cycle emissions of road infrastructure and opportunities to mitigate these emissions. Existing impact studies of roads in developing countries do not address recycled materials, improved pavement maintenance, or pavement-vehicle interaction and electric vehicle (EV) adoption. Combining firsthand information from Chinese road construction engineers with publicly available data, this paper estimates a comprehensive account of GHG emissions of the road pavement network to be constructed in the next ten years in the Shandong province in Northern China. Further, we estimate the potential of GHG emission reductions achievable under three scenario sets: maintenance optimization, alternative pavement material replacement, and EV adoption. Results show that the life cycle GHG emissions of highways and Class 1–4 roads to be constructed in the next 10 years amount to 147 Mt CO2-eq. Considering the use phase in our model reveals that it is the dominant stage in terms of emissions, largely due to pavement-vehicle interaction. Vehicle electrification can only moderately mitigate these emissions. Other stages, such as materials production and road maintenance and rehabilitation, contribute substantially to GHG emissions as well, highlighting the importance of optimizing the management of these stages. Surprisingly, longer, not shorter maintenance intervals, yield significant emission reductions. Another counter-intuitive finding is that thicker and more material-intensive pavement surfaces cause lower emissions overall. Taken together, optimal maintenance and rehabilitation schedules, alternative material use, and vehicle electrification provide GHG reduction potentials of 11%, 4%–16% and 2%–6%, respectively.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Reducing Economy-Wide Greenhouse Gas Emissions with Electrofuels and Biofuels as the Grid Decarbonizes

Biofuels and electrofuels have the potential to complement electrification in speeding greenhouse gas emissions reductions, especially in hard-to-decarbonize sectors. Concentrated waste CO 2 streams that can be used as a feedstock for electrofuels, however, may become less available as the share of renewable electricity increases and industries undergo decarbonization. Here, we conduct an analysis with detailed treatment of biofuels and electrofuels to probe their role in decarbonizing multiple industrial sectors and transportation. We examine how the changing availability of CO 2 could affect electrofuel production and the potential role of direct air capture in stabilizing the supply of CO 2 . The results indicate that biofuels could fulfill 12% of the total final energy demand across all U.S. sectors in 2050. Using seven industrial source points of CO 2 available in 2050, 15,388 PJ of electrofuels could be produced, which amounts to 25% of the total final energy demand. This result holds even upon decarbonization that requires direct air capture to boost the CO 2 supply. Biofuels and e-fuels have the potential to reduce economy-wide GHG emissions by 7 and 21% beyond electrification alone. However, electricity consumption and land use grow markedly with decarbonization at scale.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Potential Adoption and Benefits of Co-Optimized Multimode Engines and Fuels for U.S. Light-Duty Vehicles

Exploring a diverse portfolio of technologies for decarbonization is crucial to understanding the potential impacts of different technological solutions and their associated environmental implications. Using high-octane, high-sensitivity biofuel blends in co-optimized multimode engines can increase engine efficiency and reduce vehicle emissions. Here, the multimode engine research focuses on the benefits of light-duty vehicle engines, which can operate in multiple modes depending on the vehicle's load. Low-temperature combustion can improve efficiency and reduce emissions (such as those from oxides of nitrogen and particulate matter) during low-load operation, while spark ignition performance is maintained in high-load operation. These advanced engines can be optimized to run on blends of biobased fuels. This analysis models scenarios for potential market adoption of co-optimized multimode vehicles fueled by three different bioblendstocks: ethanol, isopropanol, and isobutanol. An integrated modeling approach is used to forecast the energy and environmental impacts of the deployment of co-optimized multimode vehicles and fuels in the light-duty sector over the 2020-to-2050 time horizon. The multidisciplinary approach combines vehicle sales modeling, system dynamics modeling of the biorefining industry, and life cycle assessment to estimate the emissions and energy benefits. The models consider market forces such as consumer preferences for vehicle attributes, biofuel supply and demand dynamics subject to biorefinery capacity build-out and bioresource constraints, and forecasted changes to the U.S. bulk energy system over time. Market adoption of co-optimized vehicles is evaluated across a wide parameter space for incremental vehicle cost and engine efficiency improvement. This analysis reveals that the deployment of co-optimized multimode fuels and vehicles results in up to a 5% reduction in annual sector-wide life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050, relative to a business-as-usual scenario, but is also indicates environmental trade-offs, such as higher life cycle water-use. Emission benefits could potentially increase beyond 2050, as the new technologies penetrate the market and gain a foothold. Results also show that, under certain circumstances, vehicles with engines co-optimized for use with high-octane, high-sensitivity biofuel blends can be cost-competitive with conventional gasoline, while reducing GHG emissions. Our modeling results indicate that co-optimized multimode fuels and engines can be strategically leveraged in tandem with electrification to decarbonize the light-duty sector. Co-optimized vehicles could play a role in the early years of the time horizon, while electric vehicles (EVs) could become more competitive in the later years, highlighting the complementary benefits of these technologies for GHG reductions.

Oke, Doris↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Minimal Information Set To Enable Verifiable Theoretical Battery Research

Batteries are an enabling technology for addressing sustainability through the electrification of various forms of transportation (1) and grid storage. (2) Batteries are truly multi-scale, multi-physics devices, and accordingly various theoretical descriptions exist to understand their behavior (3-5) ranging from atomistic details to techno-economic trends. As we explore advanced battery chemistries (6,7) or previously inaccessible aspects of existing ones, (8-10) new theories are required to drive decisions. (11-13) The decisions are influenced by the limitations of the underlying theory. Advanced theories used to understand battery phenomena are complicated and require substantial effort to reproduce. However, such constraints should not limit the insights from these theories. We can strive to make the theoretical research verifiable such that any battery stakeholder can assess the veracity of new theories, sophisticated simulations or elaborate analyses. We distinguish verifiability, which amounts to “Can I trust the results, conclusions and insights and identify the context where they are relevant?”, from reproducibility, which ensures “Would I get the same results if I followed the same steps?” With this motivation, we propose a checklist to guide future reports of theoretical battery research in Table 1. We hereafter discuss our thoughts leading to this and how it helps to consistently document necessary details while allowing complete freedom for creativity of individual researchers. Given the differences between experimental and theoretical studies, the proposed checklist differs from its experimental counterparts. (14,15) This checklist covers all flavors of theoretical battery research, ranging from atomic/molecular calculations (16-19) to mesoscale (20,21) and continuum-scale interactions, (9,22) and techno-economic analysis. (23,24) Finally, as more and more experimental studies analyze raw data, (25) we feel this checklist would be broadly relevant.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Scalable electrified cementitious materials production and recycling

The production of Portland cement, the industry-standard cement, contributes ~8% of global CO 2 emissions through fossil-fuel heating and decomposition of limestone (the primary cement raw material). Decarbonization, e.g., via direct electrification, of this 200-year-old liming routine is extremely challenging at the industry scale. We propose a scalable electrochemical decarbonization approach to circumvent the limestone use by switching to carbon-free calcium silicates from abundant minerals and recycled concrete. Water electrolysis produces protons and hydroxides to drive a pH gradient that accelerates Ca 2+ ion leaching from calcium silicates and captures atmospheric CO 2 to form carbon-negative CaCO 3 , which serves as the feedstock for cement manufacturing or as the carbon-mineralized product for cement substitution with permanent carbon storage. Value-added co-products amorphous silica and green H 2 further enhance cement performance and supplant fossil fuels for net-zero transition, respectively. The products readily meet present-day regulatory standards and demands, and the approach readily synergizes with business-as-usual cement manufacturing and concrete construction, which are important for upscaling and structural safety, promising ready reception by the public and industries. Blended Portland cement produced through our approach with carbon-negative CaCO 3 and silica demonstrates enhanced resilience and achieves carbon neutrality or negativity when incorporating storage or circulation of CO 2 from cement plant flue gas, respectively. This low-cost, electrochemical cement production approach using abundant ubiquitous raw materials enables electrification, transition to clean fuel, and decarbonization at a gigaton scale.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

The Role and Value of Interregional Transmission in a Decarbonized U.S. Electricity System

Decarbonizing the U.S. energy system entails a significant expansion of wind and solar power and electrification of end-use applications. Achieving both is more efficient and less costly when interregional transmission capacity is expanded, but the fractured nature of grid planning in the United States is often a barrier to such expansion. Here, we explore the role of interregional transmission under a variety of decarbonization scenarios, using a capacity-expansion model to generate co-optimized portfolios of generation, storage, and transmission that meet decarbonization targets and electrification-driven demand. We explore portfolio and cost differences across 92 scenarios, from scenarios with limited transmission expansion to those that include a meshed high-voltage direct current (HVDC) network. In the core decarbonization scenarios, wind capacity expands by ~10x and solar by ~20x compared to 2020, hundreds of gigawatts of battery storage are deployed, and interregional transmission expands by 3-6x. Transmission expansion occurs nationwide but is concentrated between the central "wind belt" and eastern load centers. The HVDC scenarios result in hundreds of billions of dollars of savings in total system cost, demonstrating the economic benefits of interregional transmission in support of rapid decarbonization.

capacity expansion↗

DOE OSTI2024

Analysis of Automated Transit Network Systems with Battery-Electric Vehicles in Automated Mobility Districts: Preprint

The paper provides an overview of the insights and findings of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL) ongoing research on the implementation of automated mobility districts (AMDs). AMD is a term coined by NREL to describe a geographically defined district or major activity center located in a dense urban setting with mobility applications provided by automated/autonomous vehicle (AV) systems spanning internal circulation and first-mile/last-mile connections to regional transportation hubs. Research over the past five years has focused on understanding the evolution of AMDs, beginning with demonstrations of automated shuttles prior to the pandemic, to more integrated on-demand mobility systems currently in initial stages of deployment. Initial insights and findings from earlier studies include the need for designation of a "jurisdiction having authority," a clear vision of a complete system to provide end-to-end mobility services, and the requisite intelligent infrastructure to complement AV technology. NREL's most recent Phase III research investigates station boarding/alighting (curb) issues, the full electrification of fleets, and the need for a systems engineering methodology (SEM) to properly analyze the complexities resulting from the convergence of automation, on-demand mobility, and electrification of the transit systems within the AMD. The paper reviews the findings of AMD research conducted during Phase I, II, and III, with special emphasis on Phase III results with respect to a descriptive example of the proposed SEM when a "digital twin" analytical model is used to simulate the transport fleet's battery-electric vehicle miles of travel and associated duty cycles through a rigorous analytical assessment with a comprehensive modeling process.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Roadmapping Minigrid Innovations for Cost Reduction

Electrification of the world's rural regions is a high priority for both the private and public sectors, as it has been linked to economic development, improved education and public health. Minigrid systems, opposed to grid extension, have been identified as the favorable solution for electrification in many cases. However, the life cycle costs of minigrid systems remain too high for widespread implementation. To address this, Colorado State University (CSU) and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) hosted a series of 3 workshops to engage a range of minigrid stakeholders to determine common issues underlying the cost of minigrid systems. The series identified numerous areas for further development in technology and business, with equal emphasis on pre-installation, capital/equipment, and operational costs. In addition, the workshop series emphasized the need for better market intelligence and a better understanding of productive use as a means of stimulating energy demand.

cost reduction↗

DOE OSTI2020

Modeling Needs for Power Semiconductor Devices and Power Electronics Systems: Preprint

As energy systems move towards wide-spread electrification, penetration of power semiconductor devices and power electronics continues to grow at a rapid pace. This paper attempts to review the state of the art in power semiconductor modeling and the existing state of modeling in general when in it comes to design of devices and systems. The modeling needs for semiconductor devices vary depending on the end goal, and the level of abstraction needed towards model formulation also changes with the size and complexity of system to be designed. Finally, key aspects of thermal design and modeling for power electronics are also discussed.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Peak Reduction Using Mode Adjustment of Heat Pump Water Heaters in a Residential Neighborhood

Building electrification is putting pressure on distribution grid worldwide. Peak reduction is an important concern that can help reduce the growing stress and allow to defer investments in new capacity. Water heaters represent a convenient way of reducing peak because they are less dependent on weather, and their storage volume allows for asynchronous water heating and hot water use. Previous empirical studies investigated the ability of water heaters to reduce peak through the adjustment of the temperature setpoint. However, not all equipment vendors offer this option. This study aims at understanding the feasibility of peak reduction with an alternative configuration available in the market - by adjusting the device mode rather than temperature setpoint. The peak reduction methodology is tested in an occupied 46-townhome neighborhood located in Atlanta, GA. We find that peak shifting is possible with the adjustable mode approach, with the change in the peak load by 30-60%.

demand response↗