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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 343 records · Page 19

Spatial Correlations of the Poisson Model for Radiation Transport

Characterizing the relationship between bulk physical properties and mixing in randomly heterogeneous media is a central challenge across many areas of science and engineering. A benchmark model for such studies is the Poisson model, a random tessellation of space by a Poisson process of hyperplanes. In radiation transport studies, the lack of exact expressions for the Poisson model’s spatial multipoint functions has led to approximate methods being used, introducing unquantified sources of error. Here, we recently introduced an exact solution for the Poisson model’s multipoint functions and closely related conditional probability functions (CPFs), providing a new opportunity to understand and reduce these sources of error. In this paper, we enable a more rigorous investigation of radiation transport in stochastic media by applying the recently introduced exact solution for the Poisson model’s CPFs. This paper consists of three main contributions. First, we introduce a unified framework for CPFs of the Poisson model, encompassing the recently introduced exact CPFs as well as the previously introduced atomic mix, nearest-neighbor, and combination CPFs. This framework also includes existing pruning techniques for the approximate CPFs, such as angular exclusion, as well as a novel form of angular exclusion suitable for the exact CPFs. Second, we use the exact CPFs to characterize the spatial regions where each approximate three-point CPF is most accurate, thereby explaining the observed hierarchy of accuracy among the approximate models. Finally, we evaluate material transmittance, reflectance, and flux in a three-dimensional test problem using conditional point sampling, demonstrating the relationship between CPF accuracy and transport simulation accuracy.

Poisson model↗

Implementation and validation of optimal start control strategy for air conditioners and heat pumps

Commercial buildings are responsible for approximately 20 % of the total energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions in the United States. Over 85 % of these buildings lack building automation systems, and many are small (<50,000 square feet), underserved, and use rooftop units (RTUs) for heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning needs. Because these buildings lack proper energy management systems, several operational deficiencies lead to excess energy consumption. Studies have shown that managing the RTUs’ heating and cooling set points, schedules, setbacks, and optimal start can result in a 20 % to 25 % reduction in electricity consumption in small commercial buildings. These buildings typically use fixed schedules to start the RTUs 60 to 120 min before occupancy begins, which results in excess energy consumption. This paper presents research that demonstrates and evaluates the performance of four optimal start methods, which utilize data-based modeling as a key element in facilitating adaptive control in response to time-varying inputs while requiring minimal sensor inputs. The evaluation found energy savings in two commercial buildings equipped with RTUs by periodically alternating four different optimal start models during the cooling and heating season. The resulting energy savings are positive for all models and range from 2 to 5 kWh/day/unit. The units on the east side of the building showed higher savings, while interior units showed greater variability in savings due to the differences in capacities and room sizes. Savings were considerably greater during the heating season compared to the cooling season. The performance of all four models on Mondays was poor; models suggested a shorter optimal start time, which resulted in relatively larger errors. Finally, the future work will look at using a different model for the days after weekends and holidays.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Diagnostics of Mixed-State Topological Order and Breakdown of Quantum Memory

Topological quantum memory can protect information against local errors up to finite error thresholds. Such thresholds are usually determined based on the success of decoding algorithms rather than the intrinsic properties of the mixed states describing corrupted memories. Here we provide an intrinsic characterization of the breakdown of topological quantum memory, which both gives a bound on the performance of decoding algorithms and provides examples of topologically distinct mixed states. We employ three information-theoretical quantities that can be regarded as generalizations of the diagnostics of ground-state topological order, and serve as a definition for topological order in error-corrupted mixed states. We consider the topological contribution to entanglement negativity and two other metrics based on quantum relative entropy and coherent information. In the concrete example of the two-dimensional (2D) Toric code with local bit-flip and phase errors, we map three quantities to observables in 2D classical spin models and analytically show they all undergo a transition at the same error threshold. This threshold is an upper bound on that achieved in any decoding algorithm and is indeed saturated by that in the optimal decoding algorithm for the Toric code. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Transfer Learning Trained LSTM Models for Household Load Profile Forecasting

Grid edge renewable energy resources, such as rooftop solar photovoltaics, closely interact with consumer load profiles. Therefore, forecasting future electricity demand, ideally at the individual household level, is indispensable. In this paper, we present a transfer learning enhanced household load profile forecasting method. First, we tune a long short-term memory forecasting model to perform day-ahead prediction of household electricity load profiles. Then we improve these individualized models using transfer learning, and we use k-means clustering to create optimal source data sets. We find average improvements of 4.38% (largest improvement of 10.71%) when the entire data set was used to train the source model and 2.45% (largest improvement of 11.57%) in the mean absolute error when households were first clustered and used to train separate source models for each cluster. We find that transfer learning with clustered data can effectively boost the forecasting performance of the LSTM models. We use realistic household power measurements for 148 real residential households in Austin, Texas.

deep learning↗

Estimating the Contributions to Human Error Probability from the Convolution of the Distribution of Time Available and Time Required

As part of their duties, Human Reliability Analysis must often evaluate if crews in nuclear power plants (NPPs) can complete tasks associated with a human-failure event within time limits. For example, the time required in NPP scenarios is determined by systematic and structured walkthroughs, feasibility studies, recorded times from training exercises, and interviews with experienced operators and experts. Typically, a point estimate is derived for the estimate (mean, maximum, or 95th percentile of time required). Using point-estimate values can mask the risk associated with variability among crews, plant conditions and set-up, environmental conditions, and other impact factors under which these actions are executed. While point estimates for time required and time available have served the industry well, without considering the uncertainty they could lead to biased understanding about the risk. The Integrated Human Event Analysis System - General Methodology (IDHEAS-G) model (developed by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, NRC) for human error probability calculates human error probability by summing two probabilities: insufficient time and cognitive error. As such, the model takes a more holistic approach by considering the full distributions for time required and time available to calculate the human error probability because the time available to complete the task is insufficient. In this study, we expand on the work of the NRC and discuss methods for estimating these time considerations. For example, for the time required, the impact of Performance Influencing Factors (PIFs) on the distribution was divided into impacts that are aleatory in nature, such as crew-to-crew variability, and those that are epistemic (i.e., the PIFs). Starting with the factors that introduce aleatory uncertainty, a first-order distribution was developed from a large set of time required (i.e., NPP task completion times) data for the range of operator actions that occur in the NPP control room under simulated accident conditions. The first-order distribution can then be adjusted to account for epistemic uncertainty using research associated with the impact of applicable PIFs on the time required. We also develop guidance for analysts to address the probability distributions for the time available. The guidance we developed on how to estimate time required and time available distributions is based on the identification of pertinent research and data, data analyses, and expert knowledge elicitation.

human error probability, human performance, time e↗

Continuous-variable quantum computation of the O(3) model in 1+1 dimensions

We formulate the $O(3)$ non-linear sigma model in $1+1$ dimensions as a limit of a three-component scalar field theory restricted to the unit sphere in the large squeezing limit. This allows us to describe the model in terms of the continuous variable (CV) approach to quantum computing. Here we construct the ground state and excited states using the coupled cluster ansatz and find excellent agreement with the exact diagonalization results for a small number of lattice sites. We then present the simulation protocol for the time evolution of the model using CV gates, estimate the discretization error, and present numerical results obtained from a photonic quantum simulator. We expect that the methods developed in this work will be useful for exploring interesting dynamics for a wide class of sigma models and gauge theories, as well as for simulating scattering events on quantum hardware in the coming decade.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Cluster-Graph Fingerprinting: A Framework for Quantitative Analysis of Machine-Learned Interatomic Model Training and Simulation Data

Machine-learned interatomic models represent a significant advancement in simulation methods, extending the predictive ability of first-principles methods to previously inaccessible length and time scales. However, the data-driven nature of these models can lead to difficult-to-detect errors that can compromise prediction accuracy. To address this challenge, we introduce a novel fingerprinting approach based on the Chebyshev Interaction Model for Efficient Simulation (ChIMES) ML-IAM graph-based descriptor. Our strategy enables efficient and statistically rigorous analysis of system configurations used in ML-IAM training and those generated by their application, e.g., in molecular dynamics simulations. We demonstrate that these fingerprints can effectively assess novelty of a configuration relative to an existing data set and determine dissimilarity among individual configurations, which are two key tasks in workflows for active learning-based ML-IAM training, data set curation, and on-the-fly uncertainty quantification.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Hourly PM 2.5 Estimates across California from 2018 to 2023

This study presents a new data set of hourly PM 2.5 concentrations across California from 2018 to 2023 at a three-kilometer resolution. This data set was developed by assimilating observations from PurpleAir and the U.S. EPA Air Quality System monitors into wildfire smoke forecasts from the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Smoke (HRRR-Smoke) model using the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) three-dimensional variational data assimilation framework. Archived forecasts of modeled wildfire smoke PM 2.5 from HRRR-Smoke create the background field for assimilation, which is then corrected using surface observations of total PM 2.5 . The resulting reanalysis from GSI provides an estimate of total PM 2.5 that minimizes error from both the observational and the model data. Validation results indicate strong performance, with monthly R 2 values ranging from 0.73 to 0.91 across the six-year data set, comparable to other PM 2.5 data sets. Case studies are presented for three major fire events, the 2018 Camp Fire, 2019 Kincade Fire, and 2020 Lightning Complex Fires to demonstrate the data set’s fidelity in resolving plume dynamics and local exposure patterns. Root-mean-squared error averaged over each month scales with average PM 2.5 concentrations, resulting in a low error under typical conditions but higher absolute errors during extreme smoke events. This is the first long-term, hourly PM 2.5 data set of its kind for California and enables the generation of subdaily exposure metrics, such as peak hourly concentrations, exceedance durations, and time-of-day exposure peaks. The novelty and strong validation of this data set make it a compelling resource for future studies on the impact and significance of subdaily PM 2.5 exposure.

PM2.5↗

Unveiling the Potential of MeshGraphNets for Predicting Subsurface Evolution in Carbon Storage Projects

This is the conference paper accompanying an oral presentation “Unveiling the Potential of MeshGraphNets for Predicting Subsurface Evolution in Carbon Storage Projects” at the 17th International Conference on Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies GHGT-17 held in Calgary, Canada, October 20-24 , 2024. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology is critical for mitigating climate change but requires effective subsurface reservoir management to ensure safe containment of injected CO2. Accurate predictions of reservoir pressure and saturation are essential for assessing long-term CCS performance. Traditional numerical simulations, while effective, are computationally intensive, time-consuming, and constrained by data discretization. Previous work has shown the effectiveness of MeshGraphNets (MGN), a graph-based machine learning framework, as an innovative alternative for predicting reservoir behavior. MGN leverages graph neural networks (GNNs) and mesh representations to model complex geological formations, offering superior adaptability across different discretizations and reservoir configurations. Classic MGN implementations utilize an autoregressive technique to predict future behavior based on current predictions, but this technique is hampered by error accumulation over time. To enhance the model accuracy in time-series predictions, this study implemented a multi-step rollout strategy that integrates autoregressive predictions during training to stabilize prediction of saturation over time. Using the Illinois Basin – Decatur Project (IBDP) dataset, comprising 100 simulations of CO2 injection, pressure, and saturation changes, the framework demonstrated its ability to learn spatial dependencies and temporal dynamics. With inputs including permeabilities, porosities, and injection rates, MGN accurately predicted CO2 plume evolution over time, even with limited training data. Moreover, the addition of a multi-step rollout procedure during training improved the ability of MGN to predict stably over time by ~15%. This research positions MGN, enhanced with multi-step rollout capabilities, as a robust and efficient tool for CCS applications. It advances the field by enabling precise, computationally efficient predictions of reservoir behavior, providing a foundation for the broader adoption of machine learning frameworks in CCS and other geoscience domains.

Holcomb, Paul↗

Optimization of foreground moment deprojection for semi-blind CMB polarization reconstruction

Abstract Upcoming Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) experiments, aimed at measuring primordial CMB polarization B-modes, require exquisite control of instrumental systematics and Galactic foreground contamination. Blind minimum-variance techniques, like the Needlet Internal Linear Combination (NILC), have proven effective in reconstructing the CMB polarization signal and mitigating foregrounds and systematics across diverse sky models without suffering from foreground mismodelling errors. Still, residual foreground contamination from NILC may bias the recovered CMB polarization at large angular scales when confronted with the most complex foreground scenarios.By adding constraints to NILC to deproject statistical moments of the Galactic emission, the Constrained Moment ILC (cMILC) method has been demonstrated to further enhance foreground subtraction, albeit with an associated increase in overall noise variance. Faced with this trade-off between foreground bias reduction and overall variance minimization, there is still no recipe on which moments to deproject and which are better suited for blind variance minimization. To address this, we introduce the optimized cMILC (ocMILC) pipeline, which performs full automated optimization of the required number and set of foreground moments to deproject, pivot parameter values, and deprojection coefficients across the sky and angular scales, depending on the actual sky complexity, available frequency coverage, and experiment sensitivity. The optimal number of moments for deprojection, before paying significant noise penalty, is determined through a data diagnosis inspired by the Generalized NILC (GNILC) method.Validated on B-mode simulations of thePICOspace mission concept with four challenging foreground models, ocMILC exhibits lower Galactic foreground contamination compared to NILC and cMILC at all angular scales, with limited noise penalty. This multi-layer optimization enables the ocMILC pipeline to achieve unbiased posteriors of the tensor-to-scalar ratio, regardless of foreground complexity.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

Taylor approximation variance reduction for approximation errors in PDE-constrained Bayesian inverse problems

In numerous applications, surrogate models are used as a replacement for accurate parameter-to-observable mappings when solving large-scale inverse problems governed by partial differential equations (PDEs). The surrogate model may be a computationally cheaper alternative to the accurate parameter-to-observable mappings and/or may ignore additional unknowns or sources of uncertainty. The Bayesian approximation error (BAE) approach provides a means to account for the induced uncertainties and approximation errors, i.e. the errors between the accurate parameter-to-observable mapping and the surrogate. The statistics of these errors are, however, in general unknown a priori, and are thus calculated using Monte Carlo sampling. Although the sampling is typically carried out offline, i.e. before considering the data, the process can still represent a computational bottleneck. In this work, we develop a scalable computational approach for reducing the costs associated with the sampling stage of the BAE approach. Specifically, we consider the Taylor expansion of the accurate and surrogate forward models with respect to the uncertain parameter fields either as a control variate for variance reduction or as a means to directly and efficiently approximate the mean and covariance of the approximation errors. We propose efficient methods for evaluating the expressions for the mean and covariance of the Taylor approximations based on linear(-ized) PDE solves. Furthermore, the proposed approach is independent of the dimension of the uncertain parameter, depending instead on the intrinsic dimension of the data, ensuring scalability to high-dimensional problems. The potential benefits of the proposed approach are demonstrated for two high-dimensional inverse problems governed by PDE examples, namely for the estimation of a distributed Robin boundary coefficient in a linear diffusion problem, and for a coefficient estimation problem governed by a nonlinear diffusion problem.

Bayesian approximation error↗

Practical Probabilistic Programming

Recent advances in probabilistic programming languages (PPLs) have provided the capability for exact inference: computing a closed-form probability distribution for a given probabilistic program. In particular, the new language Roulette uses a language oriented programming (LOP) approach, wherein analysts build new programming languages on top of a set of primitives provided by Roulette, which then translates these structures into a weighted model counting problem which can be solved by automated reasoning tools. However, because Roulette provides few convenience features, developing these new languages is challenging even for expert users. We developed a standard library of common probability functions for Roulette with the goal of improved usability. This included approximation of continuous probability density functions using discrete probability mass functions. We demonstrated this approach by modeling a cosmic ray striking a RAM controller. We found that Roulette provides a powerful interface for highly expressive probabilistic programs to be generated. In collaboration with the NNSA Advanced Simulation and Computing program, which resulted in development of a tool called Circulette, we were able to model complex circuits expressed in Verilog using probabilistic programs with an expressivity not previously possible. Our research question that motivated the development of a Roulette standard library was to determine whether non-experts could use a PPL to model relevant problems regarding radiation effects on microelectronics. This standard library improved the expressivity of Roulette by implementing common probability density functions, mathematical operators on distributions, and support for empirical distributions. While Roulette is a powerful modeling language, the untyped, LOP approach makes error messages difficult to understand and requires expert aid. We recommend further research on Roulette, especially with its error messages, to enable improved usability. At the same time, this project demonstrated that for users familiar with Roulette and the LOP approach, Roulette provides powerful new capabilities that can be integrated with other Sandia modeling capabilities.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Advanced Photovoltaic Module Characterization: Using Image Transformers for Current–Voltage Curve Prediction From Electroluminescence Images

Individual photovoltaic (PV) module health monitoring can be a daunting task for operation and maintenance of solar farms. Modules can be inspected through luminescence, thermal imaging, and current–voltage (I–V) curve analyzes for identification of damage and power loss. I–V curves provide easily interpretable data to determine module health as they directly provide electrical performance metrics. However, in order to obtain these curves, modules must be disconnected from the array and either removed to a solar simulator or characterized in situ with corrections for module temperature, the incident solar spectrum, and intensity. Luminescence or thermal images of a module are relatively easy to acquire in situ. Electroluminescence (EL) images highlight physical defects in the modules but do not provide easily interpretable features to correlate with electrical performance. This work presents a SWin transformer network to predict I–V curves for PV modules from their corresponding EL images. The predicted I–V curves allow the accurate prediction of the maximum power point (MPP), short-circuit current I sc , and open-circuit voltage V oc with a mean error less of than 1%. Comparing single diode model (SDM) parameters extracted from the predicted curves to those extracted from the true curves, the series resistance R s demonstrates a mean error of 5.19%, and the photocurrent I a mean error of 0.197%. The shunt resistance R sh and dark current Io parameters are predicted with larger errors because of their sensitivity to small changes in the I–V curve.

Byford, Brandon K. [New Mexico State Univ., Las Cr↗

Effects of Injected Current Streams on MHD Equilibrium Reconstruction of Local Helicity Injection Plasmas in a Spherical Tokamak

Open field line currents are intrinsic to DC helicity injection plasma startup and pose a challenge for inferring the plasma equilibrium with standard reconstruction analysis. Local helicity injection (LHI) is a type of DC helicity injection which uses small, modular current sources to drive force-free current along helical field lines to produce tokamak plasmas. MHD modeling and magnetic measurements during LHI indicate the injected current streams remain coherent as helical structures on the outboard edge of a core toroidal plasma that is tokamak-like in a toroidally averaged sense. To extract core plasma equilibrium properties, external magnetic diagnostics corrected for contributions from the injected current streams are fitted by a standard Grad-Shafranov equilibrium code. An iterative approach for estimating and subtracting the stream contributions from the diagnostic signals is described and applied to a model equilibrium database to reduce systematic errors introduced by the streams. Convergence is usually attained with 2 to 4 iterations, with derived equilibrium parameters matching the prescribed axisymmetric core values to within estimated experimental uncertainties. Accurate recovery of core parameters occurs when the ratio of the net toroidal windup current from the streams to the core plasma current is less than 0.2, which is typically satisfied in most experiments.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Dynamic data-driven multiscale modeling for predicting the degradation of a 316L stainless steel nuclear cladding material

Here, we have developed a long short-term memory stacked ensemble (LSTM-SE) surrogate modeling approach that can provide rapid predictions of microstructural evolution and the resultant mechanical properties of American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) 316L series stainless steel (316LSS) fuel cladding under conditions of varying temperature and radiation dose rate. To acquire training data, we developed and implemented a kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) model to simulate precipitation kinetics of M 23 C 6 , γ', and G phases within SS316L cladding. Experimentally reported precipitation kinetics of SS316L in literature were linked to the kinetic parameters of the simulated precipitation in our KMC model. The model was then used to simulate microstructure evolution under synthetically generated treatments of varying temperature and radiation dose rate, for periods of up to 3000 hours. Changes in volume fraction, number density, and particle size of precipitates were recorded, and particle area fractions were correlated using statistical methods to develop the surrogate model. Simultaneously, the mechanical properties of the simulated microstructures were evaluated using microstructure-based finite element method (FEM) analysis to determine the elastic modulus, yield stress, ultimate tensile strength, and elongation to failure of the aged microstructures. Using this approach, our surrogate model can predict precipitation behavior within 0.25% volume fraction and mechanical properties within 6% relative error from the values predicted by the KMC and FEM models using 50 training simulations as input. The trained recurrent neural network-based model can return estimations of precipitation kinetics and mechanical properties ~1000 times faster than the physics-based codes. This work demonstrates, as a proof of concept, that reactor material service lifetimes under variable service conditions can be predicted for a statistics-based model from a practicably obtainable dataset.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Effects of grain size and porosity on cladding failure in high-burnup UO 2 : A sensitivity and uncertainty study

Isotopic taggants are being studied to aid in the provenance assessment of nuclear materials. However, these taggants must be selected such that they do not adversely affect fuel performance during normal operation or accident scenarios. Taggants are known to affect the fuel’s grain size and porosity. In the work described in this paper, the BISON fuel performance code was used to assess the potential effects of taggants (i.e., grain size and porosity) on fuel rod behavior and cladding failure during a high-burnup, large-break loss-of-coolant accident. Here, 281 individual fuel rods from the same reactor core were modeled for a sensitivity study, a parametric study, and uncertainty quantification. The cladding failure predictions often exhibited stochastic behavior. After additional study, it was found that the cladding failure model is highly sensitive to residual error inherent to numerical approximation solvers. Some strategies to mitigate this sensitivity are discussed. The study found no relationship between known taggant effects and cladding failure status. However, taggants were found to affect the time and location of failure in certain rods. In conclusion, future work to continue investigating and validating these findings is briefly discussed.

Doped UO 2↗

A methodology for decay heat characterization in molten salt reactors

Accurate decay heat prediction in molten salt reactors (MSRs) faces dual challenges: complex operational uncertainties and the need for interpretable models compatible with engineering workflows. This work presents a hybrid machine learning and segmented polynomial methodology that addresses both requirements through three key innovations. First, a modular data architecture encodes MSR-specific operational parameters (power density: 1-100 W cm -3 , humidity: 0-0.1 wt %, air ingress: 0-0.1 mol %) with uncertainty-aware temporal discretization spanning 15 orders of magnitude. Second, region-optimized machine learning models achieve 92.3 % root mean square error (RMSE) reduction over conventional polynomials while maintaining physical interpretability through automated piecewise equation generation. Third, dual front-end interfaces accelerate safety analyses — a Jupyter environment enables researchers to explore 10,000+ parameter combinations via interactive widgets, while a Streamlit web application reduces design iteration cycles through production-grade visualization tools. Operational deployment demonstrates prediction times of only a couple hundred milliseconds for 10 4 years decay profiles, enabling real-time optimization of spent fuel container designs.

42 - ENGINEERING↗

Estimating value of information for heliostat washing operations at solar thermal plants

Concentrating solar power (CSP) plants depend on thousands of heliostats whose reflectance declines as dust accumulates. Operators routinely measure reflectance to estimate soiling and, in turn, inform cleaning schedules, but the value of collecting more frequent or more accurate data has not been formally quantified. This study introduces a Monte Carlo discrete event simulation framework that integrates stochastic models of soiling, weather, and measurement error with a dynamic cleaning dispatch policy to estimate annual energy production and operations costs. Applied to two representative central-receiver field configurations, the results show that both the frequency and accuracy of reflectance measurements can meaningfully impact plant performance. In both case studies, reducing measurement intervals yields significant returns, with the energy gains greatly exceeding the cost of more frequent data collection. The simulation framework serves as a decision-support tool for CSP operators, allowing them to input site-specific soiling conditions, measurement accuracy, and survey frequency to evaluate the tradeoffs between data collection cost and energy recovery, and to identify measurement strategies that maximize plant profit.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗