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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2001

Seismoball: A Small Europa Orbiter Drop-Off Probe for Early Exploration of the Europan Surface

Recent magnetometry data received from Galileo indicate that the most likely explanation for the magnetic signature there is indeed a global conducting layer below the surface. This conducting layer is well matched by a salty, mineral rich strata beneath the Europan ice crust or a salt water ocean. Galileo imaging results show a variety of terrain types thought to contain young material; for example, lineaments, chaotic terrain, and eruption features. Additionally, Galileo images have shown indications of areas of up-welling where subsurface material periodically gets pushed to the surface due to the forces of fracturing, butting, and refreezing of the ice sheet. While Europa Orbiter will provide close-flyby high resolution images, as well as magnetometry, spectroscopy and other remote sensing data of the surface, it will not be able to provide essential engineering data like surface hardness and surface ice structure needed to support eventual landed missions. Additionally, ice chemical composition at microscopic scales can only be studied in detail through in situ instrumentation. Seismoball is a small probe designed to be injected into a surface intersect orbit around Europa. Using small reverse thrusters, the probe will be capable of nulling the high horizontal injection velocity as it approaches the 2 km surface injection altitude, thus allowing it to fall to the surface at an impact velocity of < 100m/sec (much less than the DS-2 impact velocities). The external breakaway thruster structure and crushable exterior shell absorb the impact energy while allowing the science instrument suite to remain intact. JPL has already started analyzing the entry dynamics and designing/building a small, low mass probe which will withstand the impact g-forces and fit as a 'carry-on' on board the Europa Orbiter. The probe will carry a suite of 5-6 micro-instruments for imaging the surface (both microscopic and far-field), surface and shallow subsurface ice temperatures, surface hardness, crustal dynamics and periodicity, and compositional chemistry. If selected, this flight development activity will provide a unique science opportunity and adjunct to the primary Orbiter science mission. The final flight system will be designed to accommodate orbiter mass, volume, and power interface constraints, as well as entry dynamics, g-load mitigation, and arbitrary landing orientation.

Tamppari, L.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Gigatraj: An Atmospheric Trajectory Model

Atmospheric trajectory models have a long history of success in tracking air motions in the lower stratosphere and upper troposphere over periods of up to a few days. Parcels have been traced backwards from observations to identify whatever phenomena (strong convection, volcanic eruptions, rocket launches, etc.) put their signature on them. Parcels have also been initialized at a known event and traced forward to examine their subsequent physical and chemical evolution. We describe a new trajectory model, "gigatraj," that aims to increase exibility by (a) making it straightforward to use new meteorological data sources, including those not based on regular latitude-longitude grids; (b) enabling a run-time choice of vertical coordinate system for kinematic and/or quasi-isentropic calculations; (c) allowing for the output of arbitrary meteorological products, selectable by the user and interpolated to the parcels' locations and times. The model can be run in a serial or parallel processing environment, so that large numbers of parcels can be traced in a reasonable time. Information is presented on model accuracy and performance. The former is demonstrated by runs using both test-pattern winds (comparing expected paths with actual output) and real-world winds (comparing forward and backward runs to characterize how well parcels retrace their paths). Sample cases are also shown, including a reverse domain lling (RDF) calculation illustrating a tropopause fold event. Model output can be displayed using the new Visualization And Lagrangian dynamics Immersive eXtended Reality (VALIXR) system, and an example will be shown. In addition, we describe work to incorporate a version of gigatraj into the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) of NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation O ce (GMAO) at Goddard Space Flight Center. This enables trajectory calculations to be performed within the running GEOS model at the latter's native time resolution, instead of using the winds from every few hours. It also provides access to all of GEOS's internal variables as they are calculated. This module may be useful, for example, for tracking rapid chemical changes in a Lagrangian framework.

dynamics↗
NASA NTRS2013

Multiwavelength Diagnostics of the Precursor and Main Phases of an M1.8 Flare on 2011 April 22

We study the temporal, spatial and spectral evolution of the M1.8 flare, which occurred in the active region 11195 (S17E31) on 2011 April 22, and explore the underlying physical processes during the precursor phase and their relation to the main phase. The study of the source morphology using the composite images in 131Å wavelength observed by the Solar Dynamics Observatory/Atmospheric Imaging Assembly and 6-14 kiloelectronvolts [from the Reuven Ramaty High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager (RHESSI)] revealed a multi-loop system that destabilized systematically during the precursor and main phases. In contrast, hard X-ray emission (20-50 kiloelectronvolts) was absent during the precursor phase, appearing only from the onset of the impulsive phase in the form of foot-points of emitting loops. This study also revealed the heated loop-top prior to the loop emission, although no accompanying foot-point sources were observed during the precursor phase. We estimate the flare plasma parameters, namely temperature (T), emission measure (EM), power-law index (gamma) and photon turn-over energy (to), and found them to be varying in the ranges 12.4-23.4 megakelvins, 0.0003-0.6 x 10 (sup 49) per cubic centimeter, 5-9 and 14-18 kiloelectronvolts, respectively, by forward fitting RHESSI spectral observations. The energy released in the precursor phase was thermal and constituted approximately 1 percent of the total energy released during the flare. The study of morphological evolution of the filament in conjunction with synthesized T and EM maps was carried out, which reveals (a) partial filament eruption prior to the onset of the precursor emission and (b) heated dense plasma over the polarity inversion line and in the vicinity of the slowly rising filament during the precursor phase. Based on the implications from multiwavelength observations, we propose a scheme to unify the energy release during the precursor and main phase emissions in which the precursor phase emission was originated via conduction front that resulted due to the partial filament eruption. Next, the heated leftover S-shaped filament underwent slow-rise and heating due to magnetic reconnection and finally erupted to produce emission during the impulsive and gradual phases.

gamma-rays↗
NASA NTRS2006

Cosmic Ray Mantle Visibility on Kuiper Belt Objects

Optically red objects constitute the dynamically cold, old component of the Classical Kuiper Belt (40 - 47 AU) with heliocentric orbits of low eccentricity and inclination. The red colors likely arise from primordial mixed ices processed by irradiation to meters in surface depth over the past four billion years, since the time of giant planet migration and Kuiper Belt stirring, at relatively moderate dosages of 60 gigarads provided by galactic cosmic ray protons and heavier ions. The red cosmic ray mantle is uniformly visible on the cold classical objects beneath a minimally thin eroded layer of more neutrally colored material arising from cumulative effects of heliospheric particle irradiation. The radiation fluxes are lowest in the middle heliospheric region containing the Classical Kuiper Belt and increase from there both towards and away from the Sun. Despite increasing irradiation at various times of solar system history from increases in solar and interstellar ion fluxes, the red object region has apparently never reached sufficiently high dosage levels to neutralize in color the red mantle material. Erosion processes, including plasma sputtering and micrometeroid impacts, act continuously to reduce thickness of the upper neutral crust and expose the cosmic ray mantle. A deeper layer at tens of meters and more may consist of relatively unprocessed ices that can erupt to the surface by larger impacts or cryovolcanism and account for brighter surfaces of larger objects such as 2003 UB313. Surface colors among the Kuiper Belt and other icy objects of the outer solar system are then a function, assuming uniform primordial composition, of relative thickness for the three layers and of the resurfacing age dependent on the orbital and impact history of each object.

Cooper, John F.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Identification and Description of a Silicic Volcaniclastic Layer in Gale Crater, Mars, Using Active Neutron Interrogation

The Dynamic Albedo of Neutrons instrument aboard the Mars Science Laboratory rover, Curiosity, has been used to map a stratigraphically-conformable layer of high-SiO 2 material in Gale crater. Previous work has shown this material contains tridymite, a high-temperature/low-pressure felsic mineral, interpreted to have a volcanic source rock. We describe several characteristics including orientation, extent, hydration, and geochemistry, consistent with a volcaniclastic material conformably deposited within a lacustrine mudstone succession. Relationships with widely dispersed alteration features and orbital detections of hydrated SiO 2 suggest that this high-SiO 2 layer extends at least 17 km laterally. Mineralogical abundances previously reported for this high-SiO 2 material indicated that hydrous species were restricted to the amorphous (non-crystalline) fraction, which is dominated by SiO2. The low mean bulk hydration of this high-SiO 2 layer (1.85 ± 0.13 wt.% water-equivalent hydrogen) is consistent with silicic glass in addition to opal-A and opal- CT. Persistent volcanic glass and tridymite in addition to opal in an ancient sedimentary unit indicates that the conversion to more ordered forms of crystalline SiO 2 has not proceeded to completion and that this material has had only limited exposure to water since it originally erupted, despite having been transported in a uviolacustrine system. Our results, including the conformable nature, large areal extent, and presence of vol- canic glass, indicate that this high-SiO 2 material is derived from the product of evolved magma on Mars. This is the rst identi cation of a silicic volcaniclastic layer on another planet, and has important implications for magma evolution mechanisms on single-plate planets.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2002

SAGE (version 5.96) Ozone Trends in the Lower Stratosphere

Ozone retrievals from Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) II version 5.96 (v5.96) below approx. 25 km altitude are discussed. This version of the algorithm includes improved constraints on the wavelength dependence of aerosol extinctions based on the ensemble of aerosol size distribution measurements. This results in a reduction of SAGE ozone errors in the 2 years after the Mount Pinatubo eruption. However, SAGE ozone concentrations are still approx. 10% larger than ozonesonde and Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) measurements below 20 km altitude under nonvolcanic conditions (and by more than this in the tropics). The analysis by Steele and Turco suggests that the SAGE ozone overpredictions are in the wrong direction to be explained by aerosol extinction extrapolation errors. Moreover, preliminary SAGE 11 v6.0a retrievals suggest that they are partially accounted for by geometric difficulties at low altitudes in v5.96 and prior retrievals. SAGE ozone trends for the 1979-1996 and 1984-1996 periods are calculated and compared, and the sources of trend errors are discussed. These calculations are made after filtering out ozone data during periods of high, local aerosol extinctions. In the lower stratosphere, below approx. 28 km altitude, there is shown to be excellent agreement in the altitudinal structure of ozone decreases at 45 deg N between SAGE and ozonesondes with the largest decrease in both between 1979 and 1996 having occurred below 20 km altitude, amounting to 0.9 +/- 0.7% yr (2sigma) at 16 km altitude. However, in contrast to the fairly steady decreases at 45 deg N, both SAGE measurements and Lauder ozonesondes show ozone increases at 45 deg S over the period from the mid-1980s to 1996 of 0.2 +/- 0.5%/yr (2sigma) from 15 to 20 km altitude. The SAGE data suggest that this increase is a wintertime phenomenon which occurs in the 15-20 km height range. Changes in dynamics are suggested as the most likely cause of this increase. These hemispheric differences in ozone trends are supported by ozone column measurements by the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS).

Cunnold, D. M.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

PyroCbs from Australia Fires and its Impact Using Satellite Observations from CrIS and TROPOMI and Reanalysis Data

Pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb) clouds are thunder clouds created by intense heat from the Earth’s surface. They are formed similarly to cumulonimbus clouds, but the intense heat that results in the vigorous updraft comes from fire, either large wildfires or volcanic eruptions. Australia’s unprecedented fire disasters at the end of 2019 to early 2020 emitted huge amounts of carbon monoxide (CO) and fire aerosol particles to the atmosphere, particularly during the pyroCb outbreak that occurred in southeast Australia between 29 December 2019 and 4 January 2020. It was estimated that at least 18 pyroCbs were generated during this episode, and some of them injected ice, smoke, and biomass burning gases above the local tropopause. An unprecedented abundance of H2O and CO in the stratosphere, and the displacement of background ozone (O3) and N2O from rapid ascent of air from the troposphere and lower stratosphere were found from satellite observations. Some other studies also found that the fire emissions and their long-range transport resulted in stratospheric aerosol, temperature, and O3 anomalies after the 2020 Australian bushfires and altered the Antarctic ozone and vortex, posing great impact to local air quality and climate change. Further study on the atmospheric thermodynamic status of atmosphere associated with these pyroCbs, and the change of the cloud properties and trace gases during this unprecedented Australia fires will be made using a new single Field of View (SFOV) Sounder Atmospheric Products (SiFSAP). SiFSAP was developed by NASA using the Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) and Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS) onboard SNPP and JPSS-1, and will soon be available to the public at NASA DAAC. Since this product has a spatial resolution of 15 km at nadir, which is better than most global weather and climate models and other current operational sounding products, a process-oriented analysis of the dynamic transport of CO and fire plumes during this unprecedented fire disasters will be made in this study. Based on a Principal Component Radiative Transfer Model (PCRTM) and an optimized estimation retrieval algorithm, a simultaneously retrieval is made using the whole spectral information measured by CrIS, and the derived SiFSAP include temperature, water vapor, trace gases (such as O3, CO2, CO, CH4 and N2O), cloud properties and surface properties. Use of ATMS together with CrIS allows SiFSAP to get accurate retrieval products under thick pyroCb conditions, and an algorithm to detect pyroCb based on the hyperspectral infrared sounder spectrum from CrIS will be developed and verified. In addition to SiFSAP sounding products, other products like CO, O3, NO2 from TROPOMI, O3 from OMPS will be used for retrospective analysis. The wind fields from the NASA’s Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications Version-2 (MERRA-2) and ERA5 will be used to characterize the transport, and the SiFSAP temperature and water vapor profiles within and around pyroCbs will be compared with MERRA-2 and ERA5 products.

Xiaozhen (Shawn) Xiong↗
NASA NTRS1994

Crystallization history of the 1984 Mauna Loa lava flow

During a 3-week eruption in 1984, Mauna Loa produced vent lavas that increased in crystallinity from less than 1 to 30%, and 27-km-long flows that increased in crystallinity as they moved downstream. We examined the crystallization history of these lavas using crystal size distribution (CSD) analysis to study the rates of crystallization, viscosity increase, and latent heating. Typical average growth and nucleation rates were 5 x 10(exp -9) cm/s and 5/cu cm/s for microphenocrysts (20- to 500-micron size crystals nucleated in the rift zone) and 5 x 10(exp -8) cm/s and 5 x 10(exp 4)/cu cm/s for microlites (1- to 20-micron size crystals nucleated in the channel). These crystallization rates are high compared with those found in other CSD studies of igneous rocks, probably due to highly nonequilibrium conditions brought on by rapid degassing in the rift zone and cooling in the lava channel. Growth and nucleation rates decreased with time at the vent and with distance downstream. The maximum downstream total crystallinity measured is 39% (25% microlites, 14% microphenocrysts) in a quenched sample 14 km from the vent. Growth and nucleation rates cannot be calculated for postemplacement samples, but they place upper limits of 53-58% on the amount of crystallization in the channel 9-20 km from the vent. Crystallization could have been mostly responsible for the 10(exp 5)-fold downstream increase in apparent viscosity, although degassing and increasing incorporation of solid lava fragments also contributed. Another effect of crystallization on the lava flow was the sizeable latent heating (0.01 J/g/s over the first half of the flow length, if the crystallinity of downstream quench samples is representative of the hot fluid core), which may have been counteracted by entrainment of cooler material. Measurements of crystallization are shown to be crucial in the study of lava flow emplacement dynamics.

Crisp, Joe↗
NASA NTRS1994

Observations of loops and prominences

We review recent observations by the Yohkoh-SXT (Soft X-ray Telescope) in collaboration with other spacecraft and ground-based observatories of coronal loops and prominences. These new results point to problems that SoHO will be able to address. With a unique combination of rapid-cadence digital imaging (greater than or equal to 32 s full-disk and greater than or equal to 2 s partial-frame images), high spatial resolution (greater than or equal to 2.5 arcsec pixels), high sensitivity (EM less than or equal to 10(exp 42) cm(exp -3)), a low-scatter mirror, and large dynamic range, SXT can observe a vast range of targets on the Sun. Over the first 21 months of Yohkoh operations SXT has taken over one million images of the corona and so is building up an invaluable long-term database on the large-scale corona and loop geometry. The most striking thing about the SXT images is the range of loop sizes and shapes. The active regions are a bright tangle of magnetic field lines, surrounded by a network of large-scale quiet-Sun loops stretching over distances in excess of 105 km. The cross-section of most loops seems to be constant. Loops displaying significant Gamma's are the exception, not the rule, implying the presence of widespread currents in the corona. All magnetic structures show changes. Time scales range from seconds to months. The question of how these structures are formed, become filled with hot plasma, and are maintained is still open. While we see the propagation of brightenings along the length of active-region loops and in X-ray jets with velocities of several hundred km/s, much higher velocities are seen in the quiet Sun. In XBP flares, for example, velocities of over 1000 km/s are common. Active-region loops seem to be in constant motion, moving slowly outward, carrying plasma with them. During flares, loops often produce localized brightenings at the base and later at the apex of the loop. Quiescent filaments and prominences have been observed regularly. Their coronal manifestation seems to be an extended arcade of loops overlying the filament. Reliable alignment of the ground-based data with the X-ray images make it possible to make a detailed intercomparison of the hot and cold plasma structures over extended periods. Hence we are able to follow the long-term evolution of these structures and see how they become destabilized and erupt.

Strong, Keith T.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Comparative study of x ray and microwave emissions during solar flares

The work supported by the grant consisted of two projects. The first project involved making detailed case studies of two flares using SMM data in conjunction with ground based observations. The first flare occurred at 1454 UT on June 20, 1989 and involved the eruption of a prominence near the limb. In the study we used data from many wavelength regimes including the radio, H-alpha, hard X-rays, and soft X-rays. We used a full gyrosynchrotron code to model the apparent presence of a 1.4 GHz source early in the flare that was in the form of a large coronal loop. The model results lead us to conclude that the initial acceleration occurs in small, dense loops which also produced the flare's hard X-ray emission. We also found evidence that a source at 1.4 GHz later in the event was due to second harmonic plasma emission. This source was adjacent to a leg of the prominence and comes from a dense column of material in the magnetic structure supporting the prominence. Finally, we investigated a source of microwaves and soft X-rays, occurring approximately 10 min after the hard X-ray peak, and calculate a lower limit for the density of the source. The second flare that was studied occurred at 2156 UT on June 20, 1989 and was observed with the VLA and the Owens Valley Radio Observatory (OVRO) Frequency Agile Array. We have developed a gyrosynchrotron model of the sources at flare peak using a new gyrosynchrotron approximation which is valid at very low harmonics of the gyrofrequency. We found that the accelerated particle densities of the sources decreased much more with radius from the source center than had been supposed in previous work, while the magnetic field varied less. We also used the available data to analyze a highly polarized source which appeared late in the flare. The second project involved compiling a statistical base for the relative timing of the hard X-ray peak, the turbulent and blue-shift velocities inferred from soft X-ray line emissions observed by SMM and the microwave peak as determined from ground-based observations. This timing was then used to aid the testing of newly developed global models for flares that incorporate the global magnetic topology as well as the electron dynamics that are responsible for the hard X-rays and microwaves.

Winglee, Robert M.↗
NASA NTRS2012

The Effects of Solar Variability on Earth's Climate: A Workshop Report

Solar irradiance, the flux of the Sun s output directed toward Earth, is Earth s main energy source.1 The Sun itself varies on several timescales over billions of years its luminosity increases as it evolves on the main sequence toward becoming a red giant; about every 11 years its sunspot activity cycles; and within just minutes flares can erupt and release massive amounts of energy. Most of the fluctuations from tens to thousands of years are associated with changes in the solar magnetic field. The focus of the National Research Council's September 2011 workshop on solar variability and Earth's climate, and of this summary report, is mainly magnetically driven variability and its possible connection with Earth's climate variations in the past 10,000 years. Even small variations in the amount or distribution of energy received at Earth can have a major influence on Earth's climate when they persist for decades. However, no satellite measurements have indicated that solar output and variability have contributed in a significant way to the increase in global mean temperature in the last 50 years. Locally, however, correlations between solar activity and variations in average weather may stand out beyond the global trend; such has been argued to be the case for the El Nino-Southern Oscillation, even in the present day. A key area of inquiry deals with establishing a unified record of the solar output and solar-modified particles that extends from the present to the prescientific past. The workshop focused attention on the need for a better understanding of the links between indices of solar activity such as cosmogenic isotopes and solar irradiance. A number of presentations focused on the timescale of the solar cycle and of the satellite record, and on the problem of extending this record back in time. Highlights included a report of progress on pyroheliometer calibration, leading to greater confidence in the time history and future stability of total solar irradiance (TSI), and surprising results on changes in spectral irradiance over the last solar cycle, which elicited spirited discussion. New perspectives on connections between features of the quiet and active areas of the photosphere and variations in TSI were also presented, emphasizing the importance of developing better understanding in order to extrapolate back in time using activity indices. Workshop participants reviews highlighted difficulties as well as causes for optimism in current understanding of the cosmogenic isotope record and the use of observed variability in Sun-like stars in reconstructing variations in TSI occurring on lower frequencies than the sunspot cycle. The workshop succeeded in bringing together informed, focused presentations on major drivers of the Sun-climate connection. The importance of the solar cycle as a unique quasi-periodic probe of climate responses on a timescale between the seasonal and Milankovitch cycles was recognized in several presentations. The signal need only be detectable, not dominant, for it to play this role of a useful probe. Some workshop participants also found encouraging progress in the top-down perspective, according to which solar variability affects surface climate by first perturbing the stratosphere, which then forces the troposphere and surface. This work is now informing and being informed by research on tropospheric responses to the Antarctic ozone hole and volcanic aerosols. In contrast to the top-down perspective is the bottom-up view that the interaction of solar energy with the ocean and surface leads to changes in dynamics and temperature. During the discussion of how dynamical air-sea coupling in the tropical Pacific and solar variability interact from a bottom-up perspective, several participants remarked on the wealth of open research questions in the dynamics of the climatic response to TSI and spectral variability. The discussion of the paleoclimate record emphasized that the link between solar varbility and Earth s climate is multifaceted and that some components are understood better than others. According to two presenters on paleoclimate, there is a need to study the idiosyncrasies of each key proxy record. Yet they also emphasized that there may be an emerging pattern of paleoclimate change coincident with periods of solar activity and inactivity, but only on long timescales of multiple decades to millennia. Several speakers discussed the effects of particle events and cosmic-ray variability. These are all areas of exciting fundamental research; however, they have not yet led to conclusive evidence for significant related climate effects. The key problem of attribution of climate variability on the timescales of the Little Ice Age and the Maunder Minimum were directly addressed in several presentations. Several workshop participants remarked that the combination of solar, paleoclimatic, and climate modeling research has the potential to dramatically improve the credibility of these attribution studies.

Source record↗
DOE OSTI2026

Stratospheric aerosol forcing for CMIP7 – Part 1: optical properties for pre-industrial, historical, and scenario simulations

Stratospheric aerosols, most of which originate from explosive volcanic sulfur emissions into the stratosphere, are a key natural driver of climate variability. They are thus a forcing provided by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) Climate Forcings Task Team to climate modelling groups participating in phase 7 of CMIP. For the historical period, we provide two datasets covering 1750–2023: (i) a volcanic upper tropospheric-stratospheric sulfur emission dataset, documented in a companion paper; and (ii) a stratospheric sulfate aerosol optical property dataset, documented in this paper. For the satellite era (from 1979 onwards), stratospheric aerosol optical properties are derived from the Global Space-based Stratospheric Aerosol Climatology (GloSSAC) dataset. For the pre-satellite era (1750–1978), optical properties are derived from our volcanic SO 2 emission dataset using a new version of the reduced-complexity volcanic aerosol model Easy Volcanic Aerosol (Height) (EVA_H v2). A background, non-volcanic stratospheric aerosol climatology is derived from the 1998–2001 period with a trend over 1850–1978 accounting for increasing anthropogenic aerosols. A monthly stratospheric aerosol climatology is derived from the 1850–2021 average for both pre-industrial and scenario (future) simulations, with a 9-year ramp over 2022–2030 for scenario simulations to ensure a smooth transition from the historical period. CMIP7 simulations should use version 2.2.1 of our pre-industrial and historical datasets, and version 2.2.2 of our scenario dataset. Our methodology to produce historical aerosol optical properties significantly differs from CMIP6 for the pre-satellite era, and the resulting forcings in turn largely differ. In particular, the CMIP6 dataset was mostly based on the sparse and uncertain pyrheliometer record, which resulted in strongly underrepresented emissions from small-to-moderate magnitude eruptions. The resulting bias is addressed in CMIP7, which is entirely emission-derived in the pre-satellite era and uses more recent ice-core-based volcanic sulfur emission inventories than CMIP6. Our approach results in an overall larger volcanic aerosol forcing for CMIP7, with the 1850–2014 mean mid-visible global mean stratospheric aerosol optical depth (SAOD) in CMIP7 (0.0138) being 29 % higher than in CMIP6 (0.0107). The pre-industrial mean of the same variable is 26 % higher in CMIP7 (0.0135, derived from the historical 1850–2021) than CMIP6 (0.0107, derived from the historical 1850–2014 mean). Using a reduced-complexity climate model, we simulate a global mean surface temperature that is 0.07 °C colder for 1850–1900 when using the CMIP7 dataset instead of CMIP6, whereas 2000–2014 is 0.03 °C warmer in CMIP7. Our dataset also exhibits lower forcing for 1960–1980, resulting in temperatures 0.06 °C warmer when averaged over 1960–1990, a period for which CMIP6 climate models exhibit a cold bias. Given the large uncertainties characterizing the dataset, in particular for the pre-satellite era, we advise against treating the CMIP7 or CMIP6 dataset as uniquely superior for any specific year and highlight the need for further evaluation. We conclude the study by discussing sources of uncertainty for the dataset, future research avenues to improve it, as well as requirements to operationalize the production of the dataset, i.e. extend it and update it on an annual basis instead of every 5–7 years following CMIP cycles.

Aubry, Thomas J. [Univ. of Exeter, Devon (United K↗