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The pEst version 2.1 user's manual

This report is a user's manual for version 2.1 of pEst, a FORTRAN 77 computer program for interactive parameter estimation in nonlinear dynamic systems. The pEst program allows the user complete generality in definig the nonlinear equations of motion used in the analysis. The equations of motion are specified by a set of FORTRAN subroutines; a set of routines for a general aircraft model is supplied with the program and is described in the report. The report also briefly discusses the scope of the parameter estimation problem the program addresses. The report gives detailed explanations of the purpose and usage of all available program commands and a description of the computational algorithms used in the program.

Murray, James E.↗

Improving the Accuracy of Satellite Sea Surface Temperature Measurements by Explicitly Accounting for the Bulk-Skin Temperature Difference

The focus of this research was to determine whether the accuracy of satellite measurements of sea surface temperature (SST) could be improved by explicitly accounting for the complex temperature gradients at the surface of the ocean associated with the cool skin and diurnal warm layers. To achieve this goal, work centered on the development and deployment of low-cost infrared radiometers to enable the direct validation of satellite measurements of skin temperature. During this one year grant, design and construction of an improved infrared radiometer was completed and testing was initiated. In addition, development of an improved parametric model for the bulk-skin temperature difference was completed using data from the previous version of the radiometer. This model will comprise a key component of an improved procedure for estimating the bulk SST from satellites. The results comprised a significant portion of the Ph.D. thesis completed by one graduate student and they are currently being converted into a journal publication.

Castro, Sandra L.↗

Mars Relay Lander and Orbiter Overflight Profile Estimation

This software allows science and mission operations to view graphs of geometric overflights of satellites and landers within the Mars (or other planetary) networks. It improves on the MaROS Web interface within any modern Web browser, in that it adds new capabilities to the MaROS suite. The profile for an overflight is an important element for selecting communication/ overflight opportunities between the landers and orbiters within the Mars network. Unfortunately, determining these estimates is very computationally expensive and difficult to compute by hand. This software allows the user to select different overflights (via the existing MaROS Web interface) and specify the smoothness of the estimation. Estimates for the geometric relationship between a lander and an orbiter are determined based upon the orbital conditions of the orbiter at the moment the orbiter rises above the horizon from the perspective of the lander. It utilizes 2-body orbital equations to propagate the trajectory through the duration of the view period, and returns profiles that represent the range between the two vehicles, and the elevation and azimuth angles of the orbiter as measured from the lander s position. The algorithms assume a 2-body relationship with an ideal, spherical planetary body, so therefore can see errors less than 2% at polar landing sites on Mars. These algorithms are being implemented to provide rough estimates rapidly for the geometry of a geometric view period where more complete data is unavailable, such as for planning purposes. While other software for this task exists, each at the time of this reporting has been contained within a much more complicated package. This tool allows science and mission operations to view the estimates with a few clicks of the mouse.

Wallick, Michael N.↗

Technoeconomic Evaluation of Microreactor Using Detailed Bottom-up Estimate (Rev.1)

Microreactors are a novel class of nuclear reactors that are expected to be factory produced, transportable, and self-regulating. They are expected to be several orders of magnitude smaller in size than traditional reactors (with power outputs in the 1–20 MWe range typically). They are primarily envisaged to target niche, remote markets that are difficult to access and where energy costs are high. There has been a scarcity of technoeconomic assessment for these types of reactors due to the scarcity of designs without proprietary restraints (e.g., those that include balance of plants and building layouts) and cost estimates. The primary objective of this report was to develop a transparent, detailed, bottom-up cost estimate for a microreactor. While there is a high degree of uncertainty associated with the projected costs, this work provides a foundation that can built upon and improved to better model the economics of microreactors. The Microreactor Applications Research, Validation, and Evaluation (MARVEL) microreactor was selected for this analysis. This Department of Energy–sponsored demonstration was chosen because (1) its final design was recently completed and (2) a detailed class-3 cost-and-schedule estimation was conducted for it. This provided a strong technical basis for further analysis.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

A catalog of galaxies in Hercules from the Palomar Sky Survey and the Minnesota Automated Plate Scanner

The development of galaxies catalogs from the Palomar Sky Survey using the Minnesota Automated Plate Scanner (APS) is examined. The design and operation of APS are described. The algorithm used to distinguish stars from galaxies is discussed, and the completeness and confusion of the algorithm as a function of magnitude are estimated. The quality of the photometric calibration for galaxy magnitudes and surface-brightness thresholds is evaluated. The relation between the distribution of colors and morphological types is studied. The luminosity functions for Hercules galaxies are calculated and presented. The catalog generated using the APS is 80 percent complete; photometry good to 0.23 mag rms is possible; and J-F colors are good to 0.17 mag rms.

Dickey, John M.↗

Earth Resources Technology Satellite-1 (ERTS-1) data and anthropology: Use of these data in carrying capacity estimates for sites in Upper Volta and Niger

The author has identified the following significant results. Repetitively derived multispectral band imagery from ERTS-1 is now available for many parts of the earth's land surface and represents major new data sources for anthropological work in habitat, land use, and settlement patterns. A completed first step test of ERTS-1 data is available in carrying capacity estimates for Mossi, Hausa, and Sonrai sites derived from: (1) field work; (2) aerial photography; and (3) ERTS-1. Data can test more than one carrying capacity formula.

Reining, P.↗

Ultrasound Algorithm Derivation for Soil Moisture Content Estimation

Soil moisture content can be estimated by evaluating the velocity at which sound waves travel through a known volume of solid material. This research involved the development of three soil algorithms relating the moisture content to the velocity at which sound waves moved through dry and moist media. Pressure and shear wave propagation equations were used in conjunction with soil property descriptions to derive algorithms appropriate for describing the effects of moisture content variation on the velocity of sound waves in soils with and without complete soil pore water volumes, An elementary algorithm was used to estimate soil moisture contents ranging from 0.08 g/g to 0.5 g/g from sound wave velocities ranging from 526 m/s to 664 m/s. Secondary algorithms were also used to estimate soil moisture content from sound wave velocities through soils with pores that were filled predominantly with air or water.

Belisle, W.R.↗

Status of Cycle 23 Forecasts

A number of techniques for predicting solar activity on a solar cycle time scale are identified, described, and tested with historical data. Some techniques, e.g,, regression and curve-fitting, work well as solar activity approaches maximum and provide a month- by-month description of future activity, while others, e.g., geomagnetic precursors, work well near solar minimum but provide an estimate only of the amplitude of the cycle. A synthesis of different techniques is shown to provide a more accurate and useful forecast of solar cycle activity levels. A combination of two uncorrelated geomagnetic precursor techniques provides the most accurate prediction for the amplitude of a solar activity cycle at a time well before activity minimum. This precursor method gave a smoothed sunspot number maximum of 154+21 for cycle 23. A mathematical function dependent upon the time of cycle initiation and the cycle amplitude then describes the level of solar activity for the complete cycle. As the time of cycle maximum approaches a better estimate of the cycle activity is obtained by including the fit between recent activity levels and this function. This Combined Solar Cycle Activity Forecast now gives a smoothed sunspot maximum of 140+20 for cycle 23. The success of the geomagnetic precursors in predicting future solar activity suggests that solar magnetic phenomena at latitudes above the sunspot activity belts are linked to solar activity, which occurs many years later in the lower latitudes.

Hathaway, D. H.↗

Advancements in Force and Angle Measurement by the NFMTC

The National Force Measurement Technology Capability (NFMTC) is a nationwide partnership established in 2008 and sponsored by NASA’s Aeronautics Evaluation and Test Capabilities (AETC) project to maintain and further develop force and angle measurement capabilities primarily for NASA’s ground test facilities. One of the NFMTC’s primary objectives is to develop new force and angle measurement capabilities to meet the needs of researchers testing in NASA’s ground test facilities. This work will highlight several new capabilities that are either at or near operational readiness. A new six-component flow-through balance was designed and fabricated to support an upcoming retropropulsion test campaign at the NASA Langley Unitary Plan Wind Tunnel. The balance employs membranes in place of bellows, which have historically been used, and passes the flow through load bearing parts of the balance. Flow through the balance is optimized via the addition of flow guides, which are manufactured as separate parts, and attached to the balance. Calibration of this new flow-through balance demonstrates that it can suitably characterize the load and pressure ranges it was designed for, which provides aero researchers a new tool to directly measure retropropulsion performance of powered descent vehicles. Balances used in NASA’s ground test facilities are typically either single-piece balances or floating-frame balances. Historically, these two types of balances have generally used different front-end (model) attachments. Single-piece balances generally have a cylindrical front end that is forward of any measuring sections and at a reduced diameter relative to the balance outer diameter. Floating-frame balances generally have front end fits that extend over one or more measuring sections and that engage at the balance outer diameter. Recently, the NFMTC fabricated a single-piece balance with a front end fit that is compatible with the hardware used to calibrate floating-frame balances. Calibration results evaluating this front end fit will be presented. From a recent survey of angle measurement needs, the development of smaller angle measurement packages was identified as one area of improvement. Micro-electromechanical systems (MEMS) are continually being refined to provide high performance accelerometers that are a fraction of the volume of the quartz flexure based accelerometers that are standard in wind tunnels. A survey of commercial off-the-shelf MEMS accelerometers was conducted, and it identified the Safran Colibrys MS lines to be of adequate performance. Single-axis test boards and tri-axis rigid-flex production boards were designed and fabricated with a volume of approximately .18 cubic inches. The boards were designed to provide all the necessary conditioning for the MEMS accelerometers at levels to meet or exceed all requirements for the MS line sensors. Preliminary testing of these assembled sensor packages has demonstrated acceptable performance for wind-tunnel angle measurement. Several new rotating balances are at various stages of completion for NASA Glenn Research Center’s fan drive rigs. These balances provide direct measurement of thrust and torque of a driven fan or fan section to provide an estimate of fan efficiency and net thrust. Three two-component balances have been recently completed, and one six-component balance is in active development. A custom rotating telemetry system has been developed to support testing with these balances, and the telemetry system is integrated into the forward end of each one. The telemetry system is designed to remove mechanical sliprings by using an optical ethernet-based slipring for data transmission.

Force measurement↗

New York Ecological Conservation: Evaluating Agricultural Conservation Easement Impact Using Earth Observations to Examine Avoided Soil Carbon Loss to Development

Farmland provides ecosystems and communities with services ranging from habitat conservation to food security. As total U.S. farmland continues to decline, agricultural lands near urban areas are especially vulnerable. Our project partners—Finger Lakes Land Trust, Genesee Land Trust, and Saratoga Preserving Land and Nature (PLAN)—can use study results to better profile farmland vulnerability, issuing conservation easements to protect maximum acreage in Saratoga County and the Finger Lakes Region of New York. Multiple existing studies effectively use remote sensing imagery to analyze historical land cover and forecast future change. This study examined soil carbon stocks and land cover change to estimate avoided soil carbon loss. We also predicted farmland vulnerability. We completed these analyses using European Space Agency (ESA) and NASA Earth observations that include Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM), Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), Landsat 9 OLI-2, Sentinel-2 Multispectral Instrument (MSI), and Suomi National Polar-Orbiting Partnership (NPP) Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) for nighttime lights data that aided in the land change model analysis. We determined that the conversion of agriculture to development from 1990 to 2022 occurred at rates of 0.91% (Finger Lakes) and 7% (Saratoga). Urban development is predicted to increase surrounding urban centers through 2030 and 2050. We also estimate that between 26.5 and 348,101 kilotons (Finger Lakes) and 3.7 and 58,006 kilotons (Saratoga) of soil carbon losses have been avoided through agricultural easements. Findings from this study will support our partners in determining agricultural conservation easement benefits and prioritizing the acquisition of future easement sites.

Agriculture↗

A Single-column Model Ensemble Approach Applied to the TWP-ICE Experiment

Single-column models (SCM) are useful test beds for investigating the parameterization schemes of numerical weather prediction and climate models. The usefulness of SCM simulations are limited, however, by the accuracy of the best estimate large-scale observations prescribed. Errors estimating the observations will result in uncertainty in modeled simulations. One method to address the modeled uncertainty is to simulate an ensemble where the ensemble members span observational uncertainty. This study first derives an ensemble of large-scale data for the Tropical Warm Pool International Cloud Experiment (TWP-ICE) based on an estimate of a possible source of error in the best estimate product. These data are then used to carry out simulations with 11 SCM and two cloud-resolving models (CRM). Best estimate simulations are also performed. All models show that moisture-related variables are close to observations and there are limited differences between the best estimate and ensemble mean values. The models, however, show different sensitivities to changes in the forcing particularly when weakly forced. The ensemble simulations highlight important differences in the surface evaporation term of the moisture budget between the SCM and CRM. Differences are also apparent between the models in the ensemble mean vertical structure of cloud variables, while for each model, cloud properties are relatively insensitive to forcing. The ensemble is further used to investigate cloud variables and precipitation and identifies differences between CRM and SCM particularly for relationships involving ice. This study highlights the additional analysis that can be performed using ensemble simulations and hence enables a more complete model investigation compared to using the more traditional single best estimate simulation only.

numerical weather forecasting↗

Design of a modular digital computer system DRL 4 and 5

Design and development efforts for a spaceborne modular computer system are reported. An initial baseline description is followed by an interface design that includes definition of the overall system response to all classes of failure. Final versions for the register level designs for all module types were completed. Packaging, support and control executive software, including memory utilization estimates and design verification plan, were formalized to insure a soundly integrated design of the digital computer system.

Source record↗

"Pelled-film" solar cells

Cells are lighter and less expensive than conventional cells. GaAs cells are deposited on GaAs substrate coated with thin etchable layer that allows completed cell film to be peeled away from substrate. At estimated conversion of 18 percent, array of cells delivers about 1 kW of electricity per kilogram of cell material. Blanket of cells delivers energy at power-to-weight ratio about 4 times that of conventional 2-mil (0.5-mm) silicon solar cells. GaAs solar cells have better radiation resistance than silicon cells.

Stirn, R. J.↗

HEAO A-2 soft X-ray source catalog

The HEAO A-2 low energy X-ray detectors have surveyed over 95% of the sky in the spectral bands 0.18-0.44 and 0.44-2.8 keV, down to a typical limiting sensitivity of 1 x 10 to the -11th and 3 x 10 to the -11th ergs per sq cm per sec in each band, respectively. Using a significance criterion of 6 sigma for existence, 114 sources are cataloged, of which 54 were previously undiscovered and 32 remain unidentified. The catalog contains a listing of all counterpart identifications and a cross-reference to all HEAO 1 A-2 low energy detector team publications on the catalog sources complete through the end of 1981. Supplementary material allows the estimation of spectral parameters for the spectral models from the observed intensities. Simple graphs allow the extraction of energy fluxes at the earth, both with and without the effects of interstellar absorption. The angular distribution of the cataloged sources in the 0.44-2.8 keV band is concentrated toward the galactic plane and resembles that seen at higher energy. The distribution in the 0.18-0.44 keV band is more uniform and contains many more newly discovered and unidentified sources.

Nugent, J. J.↗

A Nonlinear Observer for Gyro Alignment Estimation

A nonlinear observer for gyro alignment estimation is presented. The observer is composed of two error terms, an attitude error and an alignment error. The observer is globally stable with exponential convergence of the attitude errors. The gyro alignment estimate converges to the true alignment when the system is completely observable.

Thienel, J.↗

Software Reliability 2002

In FY01 we learned that hardware reliability models need substantial changes to account for differences in software, thus making software reliability measurements more effective, accurate, and easier to apply. These reliability models are generally based on familiar distributions or parametric methods. An obvious question is 'What new statistical and probability models can be developed using non-parametric and distribution-free methods instead of the traditional parametric method?" Two approaches to software reliability engineering appear somewhat promising. The first study, begin in FY01, is based in hardware reliability, a very well established science that has many aspects that can be applied to software. This research effort has investigated mathematical aspects of hardware reliability and has identified those applicable to software. Currently the research effort is applying and testing these approaches to software reliability measurement, These parametric models require much project data that may be difficult to apply and interpret. Projects at GSFC are often complex in both technology and schedules. Assessing and estimating reliability of the final system is extremely difficult when various subsystems are tested and completed long before others. Parametric and distribution free techniques may offer a new and accurate way of modeling failure time and other project data to provide earlier and more accurate estimates of system reliability.

Wallace, Dolores R.↗

Sampling Biases in MODIS and SeaWiFS Ocean Chlorophyll Data

Although modem ocean color sensors, such as MODIS and SeaWiFS are often considered global missions, in reality it takes many days, even months, to sample the ocean surface enough to provide complete global coverage. The irregular temporal sampling of ocean color sensors can produce biases in monthly and annual mean chlorophyll estimates. We quantified the biases due to sampling using data assimilation to create a "truth field", which we then sub-sampled using the observational patterns of MODIS and SeaWiFS. Monthly and annual mean chlorophyll estimates from these sub-sampled, incomplete daily fields were constructed and compared to monthly and annual means from the complete daily fields of the assimilation model, at a spatial resolution of 1.25deg longitude by 0.67deg latitude. The results showed that global annual mean biases were positive, reaching nearly 8% (MODIS) and >5% (SeaWiFS). For perspective the maximum interannual variability in the SeaWiFS chlorophyll record was about 3%. Annual mean sampling biases were low (<3%) in the midlatitudes (between -40deg and 40deg). Low interannual variability in the global annual mean sampling biases suggested that global scale trend analyses were valid. High latitude biases were much higher than the global annual means, up to 20% as a basin annual mean, and over 80% in some months. This was the result of the high solar zenith angle exclusion in the processing algorithms. Only data where the solar angle is <75deg are permitted, in contrast to the assimilation which samples regularly over the entire area and month. High solar zenith angles do not facilitate phytoplankton photosynthesis and consequently low chlorophyll concentrations occurring here are missed by the data sets. Ocean color sensors selectively sample in locations and times of favorable phytoplankton growth, producing overestimates of chlorophyll. The biases derived from lack of sampling in the high latitudes varied monthly, leading to artifacts in the apparent seasonal cycle from ocean color sensors. A false secondary peak in chlorophyll occurred in May-August, which resulted from lack of sampling in the Antarctic.

Gregg, Watson W.↗

LISA and NASA's Physics of the Cosmos Theme

In the past year, the LISA Project at NASA has completed a major review and has thoroughly reviewed its cost estimates. This talk will summarize the conclusions of the Beyond Einstein Program Assessment, and review the main conclusions of the cost estimation work done at NASA, including reduced mission concepts. Astro2010, the decadal review which sets priorities for astronomy and astrophysics projects in the U.S., is getting organized. Preparing for and participating in Astro2010 will be a crucial activity for the NASA side of the LISA Project in thc next 18 months.

Stebbins, Robin T.↗